iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
|Number of Estimates|
Market Cap: 18.2 Billion
Primary Exchange: NASDAQ
Shares Outstanding: 109 Million
Dividend: 2.9758 (0.02%)
Industry: Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds
Longest drawdown: 2289 trading days
From: 2016-07-08 To: 2019-08-13
Weekly Edge: Investors Anticipate Fed Meeting As The Trade War Saga Continues
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 14:27:36:000
By Ansh Chaudhary As the June 28-29 G-20 summit in Japan moves closer, speculation continues to increase about whether Presidents Trump and Xi will meet there to discuss trade. According to Reuters , Trump does plan to meet with Xi, after which he will decide "whether to extend tariffs to… read more...
One Trick Pony: The Fed Is Pushing On A String
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 13:24:16:000
Last week, I discussed the Fed's recent comments suggesting they might be closer to cutting rates and restarting "QE" than not. "In short, the proximity of interest rates to the ELB (Effective Lower Bound) has become the preeminent monetary policy challenge of our time, tainting all… read more...
Weekly Review: Municipal Bond CEFs - PCQ Announced Unchanged Dividend
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 11:53:00:000
Introduction Over the past few months, most of you have noticed our increased activity in closed-end funds as the inflow of volatility finally shook them up and created various arbitrage, and directional, opportunities for active traders like us. Currently, we are cautious when we choose… read more...
How The Dollar And Trade Have Helped Tame Inflation - Stagflation Next
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 06:50:58:000
To help be a better investment forecaster, I think it's critical to understand the past. To know what's been, so as to know what'll be again. The strong dollar and slowing credit growth have certainly contributed to the slowdown in inflation of late. The future of inflation is probably going… read more...
Tradeweb Government Bond Update - May 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 06:31:23:000
The bond market seesaw continues. Following April's increases, yields for 10-year government bonds fell in May amid trade tensions, economic and monetary uncertainty, and political drama, with most sinking by double digits. The U.S. Treasury 10-year mid-yield plunged by 36.5 basis points, tr… read more...
One Plus One Equals Three
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 05:48:41:000
By Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy To watch the money and bond markets of late, there is one development that stands out quite clearly: the Federal Reserve (Fed) has to cut interest rates. In fact, from the markets' perspective, trade uncertainty plus economic weakness equals… read more...
Merk Research: U.S. Business Cycle Report June 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 03:45:00:000
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...
Commodities Are 'From Venus' Too
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 22:29:07:000
Originally posted on June 11, 2019 ZeroHedge, in its typical eloquent fashion, noted last week that stocks are from Mars but bonds are from Venus, in describing the downdraft of U.S. Treasury bond yields and the significant rebound in the stock market. The two do not rhyme very well, which… read more...
Switch From Trade Fears To Rate Cut Hopes Lifts Stocks
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 21:42:42:000
Originally published on June 11, 2019 The financial news media has switched its obsession from trade tariffs to a coming Fed rate cut, so the news media is finally reporting some more positive news for a change and the market "melted up" by almost 5% last week, recovering more than two-thi… read more...
Why The Market Can Repeat The 2019 Rally
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 11:47:22:000
At the end of 2018, the market was in a downward trend caused by China-U.S. trade tensions, explicit global macro deterioration and excessive tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. This set the table for the S&P 500 Index to close in negative territory as investors sold their equity pos… read more...
Robert Samuelson On The Great Inflation, Its History, And Its Legacy
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 10:20:27:000
David Beckworth: Our guest today is Robert Samuelson. Robert is an economics columnist for The Washington Post, and spent several decades also working at Newsweek writing on economics. Robert is the author of several books, including The Good Life and Its Discontent: The American Dream in th… read more...
TLT - Nowhere To Go But Lower (Long-Term Bond Yields Higher)
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 09:00:00:000
Sanford C. Bernstein & Company Analysts (January 2017) Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria Sir John Templeton Life and investing are long ballgames. Julian Robertson Introduc… read more...
3 Charts I Think I'm Thinking About
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 08:32:21:000
1. The USA is bankrupt, part 3,478. It's been at least 1 or 2 blog posts since I talked about the USA being bankrupt so I would be remiss if I didn't remind you that the USA is actually not bankrupt at all . This chart comes to us courtesy of Mary Meeker's annual internet report . Now,… read more...
Anxiety Ticks Up, Risks Pared
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 07:26:02:000
Overview The S&P 500 snapped a five-day advance yesterday and set the heavier tone for equities today. Continued protests in Hong Kong were not shrugged off as they have been in the last couple of sessions. The Hang Seng's nearly 1.9% decline was the largest in a month and led the region… read more...
The Retirees' Dividend Portfolio - John And Jane's May Taxable Account Update: Monthly Income Record
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 07:00:00:000
One of the most humbling things I have learned to do in my short 30 years of life is to openly admit when I make a mistake. My reason for doing this is that I believe the fastest way to build trust is by telling the truth even when the outcome doesn't necessarily have a major impact on the per… read more...
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 06:26:33:000
When, last week, the Treasury issued its currency manipulation report , I thought it was a joke. The Treasury put Germany and Italy on its "monitoring list" of countries suspected of "currency manipulation." Germany and Italy are, of course, part of the Euro, the whole point of which is… read more...
May 2019 Yield Curve Update
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 06:18:51:000
Good news on the monetary policy front. The Fed has been signaling a willingness to ease, and currently, futures markets are predicting a 25 basis-point rate deduction in July (with some probability even of a 50 bp deduction!). Initially, this brought the yield curve down out to several year… read more...
Interest Rate Outlook: Fed Evaluating Risks To U.S. Economy
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 04:39:34:000
As U.S. Federal Reserve officials enter the communications blackout period ahead of the June 18-19 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, bond markets are pricing in a modest chance (roughly 12%) that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and a much higher (roughly… read more...
Central Banks Provide A Silver Lining To The Escalating Trade War
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 04:10:57:000
Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on June 10, 2019, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: US cancels its tariffs on Mexico, China warns against traveling to the US, and central banks appear more open to accommodation A collective sigh of reli… read more...
A Big Red Flag In The Credit Market
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 17:56:10:000
Treasury bond volatility is picking up. Thats a big red flag for the credit market and yet another sign that the U.S. economic cycle is slowing. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Macro analyst Darius Dale explain in the clip above how a rise in bond market volatility … read more...
The Easy VIX: VIX Futures Patterns And A Risk-Responsive Portfolio
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 12:52:39:000
In my last article, linked here , I explained how using a risk-avoidance algorithm derived from the VIX futures curve produced a 15.7% return for a basket of broadly diversified ETFs compared to a 7.3% return for a buy-and-hold strategy. I also noted that the risk avoidance aspect was critica… read more...
If Japan Dumps Its Treasuries
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 12:03:30:000
With the trade war in full swing and the USA attacking many of its trading partners over perceived unfairness in trade relationships what would happen if Japan dumped its considerable holding of treasuries into the secondary market or chose not to buy any more treasuries and let the remainder … read more...
Fed Lowering Interest Rates Will Do Little To Fix Our Ills
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 10:15:15:000
Years ago before the "Bernanke has all the answers" era, many of us criticized Japan for failing to own its problems. In many ways, the Fed has put America and the global economy on a path that mirrors the same unsuccessful path taken by Japan. This path avoided real reform and bailed out the … read more...
2% Or 2% Or -0.2%?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 10:10:45:000
The bond market is currently a puzzle derived from an enigma influenced by an anomaly. Or is it? Here are some bullets. Riskless overnight US government cash equivalents yield more than 2- or 5- or 7- or 10-year maturity instruments of the same credit risk. That means a market based foreca… read more...
What Gold, Treasuries And The Dollar Are Telling Us
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 09:41:40:000
"I really think that people never go wrong by telling the truth." - Sydney Pollack The economy continued to flash warning signals this week. JPMorgans global composite PMI reading slipped into contraction territory falling to a 7-year low in the process. Oil ( USO ) continues its d… read more...
Trying Times For The 'Patience' Of Jerome
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 09:31:39:000
(Source: Wikipedia , quote by St Jerome , editing by the Author, based on a story by Dan Brown, an epigram by Balzac and a painting by Caravaggio) As the next FOMC swiftly approaches, the testing of Chairman Powells patience by data and global politics is near… read more...
The 'True Fundamentals' Are Still In Gold's Favour
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 09:08:16:000
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on June 10, 2019. After spending almost all of 2018 in bearish territory, gold's true fundamentals* (as indicated by my Gold True Fundamentals Model - GTFM) have spent all of this year to date in bullish territory. Refer to the following … read more...
Market Update: Volatility And Fund Flows
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 07:45:52:000
By OpenMarkets Some of the current volatility is driven by money that has to be put to work. Jack Bouroudjian explains how fund flows are affecting the market, and covers why we should continue to monitor the U.S. Read more … read more...
The Numbers Game
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 07:11:27:000
"Nobody trusts anyone in authority today. It is one of the main features of our age. Wherever you look, there are lying politicians, crooked bankers, corrupt police officers, cheating journalists and double-dealing media barons, sinister children's entertainers, rotten and greedy energy compa… read more...
The Recent Bond Yield And SPX Declines (And Now Bitcoin) Tend To Recur Year After Year
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 18:28:15:000
There has been multiple explanations and rationalizations of the very recent and sharp decline in bond yields. The most prominently published rationalization was the action taken by billionaire and former hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller's piling into US Treasuries as the US trade war wit… read more...
Technically Speaking For June 10
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 16:46:06:000
Brexit is hurting the UK economy. The Office of National Statistics released the latest GDP report today, which reported a 0.3% increase in the latest three month period. However, growth contracted 0.1% in March and 0.4% in April, the most recent months for which data is available. A sharp… read more...
Trade Wars Likely To Change The Fed's Interest-Rate Game Plan
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 10:42:55:000
By Eric Winograd The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven't yet taken a major downward turn, and there'… read more...
I Doubt The Fed Will Cut Rates 3 Times This Year
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 10:33:32:000
A string of weak economic data releases and the return of trade tensions with China and Mexico have further diminished the economic outlook lately, which is encouraging traders and investors to price in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to support the economy. Market participants closely monito… read more...
Seems All About The Fed At The Moment
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 08:38:28:000
Since the Federal Reserve began raising the Fed Funds rate in December 2015, there have been nine rate increases. Now that the Fed is in a pause mode, strategists and investors have turned their focus on rate cuts. It seems as though strategists believe the equity market and economy cannot mov… read more...
Weekly Commentary: Horde Of Jumbo Bazookas
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 07:41:08:000
"Stocks Eye Best Week of 2019 on 'Powell Put' Bets," read the Friday Bloomberg headline. By the close of Friday trading, the S&P 500 had posted a gain of 4.4% ("best week since November"). Also from Bloomberg: "Fed Watchers Say a July Rate Cut Is In Play, June Not Likely." Markets now pri… read more...
Still Think This Is About Trade Wars?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 07:17:52:000
There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact. Conan Doyle Jobs data, put simply, was ugly. Tuning in to watch the news before the announcement, several analysts and economists were asked for their predictions. Even the most bearish prognosticator got it … read more...
A Look At The Charts
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 01:36:33:000
The US dollar fell against all the major currencies last week, and the technical indicators warn that further losses are likely. Market speculation that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut rates more than once this year has strengthened. It is outpacing the expectations that the ECB and … read more...
Dodged One Bullet, But More Remain
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 00:41:05:000
We were pleasantly surprised that Trump tweeted Friday night that the U.S. and Mexico had reached a last-minute deal on immigration to avoid tariffs that would have begun Monday. While that removes any risk to the all-important supply line between our countries and Canada, we remain concerned … read more...
Stocks Can Go Up When Bonds Show Recession
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 18:17:45:000
The common assumption is that bonds are screaming RECESSION right now, while the stock market refuses to hear it. This isnt entirely true. While the stock markets long term risk:reward is certainly not bullish, the economic data suggests that a U.S. recession is not imminent. … read more...
'Flight To Safety' Into Treasuries And Utilities Continues Despite Stock Market Rebound
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 14:28:40:000
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond declined to as low as 2.522% on June 3, the lowest since November 2016. The cycle low yield was 2.089% set during the week of July 15, 2016. The dividend yield for the utilities stock ETF is down to 2.87%, not cheap enough for a flight to safety… read more...
Federal Reserve Watch: Markets See Data Driven Fed Lowering Rates
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 11:36:54:000
For several years now, officials at the Federal Reserve claim that they are data driven. Well, the markets continue to take the Fed at its word. After favorable words by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials this week, the stock market has took off, bond prices r… read more...
Weighing The Fed's Monetary Policy Options
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 10:43:00:000
Elga assesses the options the Fed is considering during its monetary policy review. This is the third post in a series of blog posts on the Fed and inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve is considering a monetary policy shift from its flexible inflation forecast targeting to one of se… read more...
Fed Easing And The Dollar: Necessary, But Not Sufficient
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 08:25:25:000
By Chris Turner ; Petr Krpata, CFA ; and Francesco Pesole There is a conviction that the Fed is going to have to cut rates to insulate the economy from trade wars. US rates are collapsing, but the dollar is holding up reasonably well. We suspect that is due to wide US yield differenti… read more...
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