SSgA Active Trust
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Shakespeare On Bonds
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 14:55:21:000
"I can get no remedy against this consumption of the purse: borrowing only lingers and lingers it out, but the disease is incurable." - Shakespeare, Henry IV, Part 2 In October, November, and December, the Fed was the villain, especially in December. Jerome Powell spoke and the markets g… read more...
The End Of The Current Business Cycle Is Near; Here's What To Expect In The Next Recession
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 13:29:28:000
Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Aruba Institute of Investment Expertise as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Essential. Click here to find out more &… read more...
Trump Might Really Be 'Crazy Like A Fox' On Trade-Fed-Market Nexus
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 12:47:19:000
On Wednesday, Bloomberg ran an article featuring a handful of soundbites from Chen Zhao, co-founder of Montreal-based Alpine Macro and a former co-director of macro research at Brandywine Global Investment Management. You can read the piece for yourself, but the gist of it is that Zhao be… read more...
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 3K
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 10:39:36:000
By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 … read more...
Weekly Edge: Investors Anticipate Fed Meeting As The Trade War Saga Continues
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 10:27:36:000
By Ansh Chaudhary As the June 28-29 G-20 summit in Japan moves closer, speculation continues to increase about whether Presidents Trump and Xi will meet there to discuss trade. According to Reuters , Trump does plan to meet with Xi, after which he will decide "whether to extend tariffs to… read more...
Charts Implying Economic Weakness - June 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 09:28:12:000
Please note: This is the latest in a series of articles, the last being " Charts Implying Economic Weakness - May 2019." U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site, there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially nota… read more...
One Trick Pony: The Fed Is Pushing On A String
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 09:24:16:000
Last week, I discussed the Fed's recent comments suggesting they might be closer to cutting rates and restarting "QE" than not. "In short, the proximity of interest rates to the ELB (Effective Lower Bound) has become the preeminent monetary policy challenge of our time, tainting all… read more...
The Coming Pension Crisis And Its Subsequent Fallout
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 08:44:41:000
Returning SBTV guest Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, warns about the under-funding in public and private pensions. Will there be pitchforks when pensioners realize there is no money available for their retirement? Discussed in this in… read more...
This Is One Of The Worst Risk/Reward Setups In History
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 08:18:48:000
One of the indicators I started tracking several years ago was what I call "The Buffett Yardstick." It plots the total value of the stock market against the overall size of the economy. As Warren wrote nearly 20 years ago, "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at … read more...
Value Of Direct U.S.-China Trade Continues To Shrink
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 06:26:28:000
The combined value of goods and services traded between the U.S. and China continued to shrink in April 2019, with the cumulative gap between the projection of how much that trade would be worth today, if not for the tariff war and where it actually is today now, having increased by $1 billion… read more...
Why The Fed Is Not Likely To Save This Ailing Bull Market
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 14:49:53:000
Image Source Don't Bet On The Fed To Bail Out The Stock Market The S&P 500 and stocks, in general, have made a substantial rebound in recent days. In fact, the SPX had gained approximately 6.5% after bouncing off major support at 2,725 and topping out at 2,900 resistance. Source… read more...
Global Equities Hold Onto 2019 Gains As Headwinds Build
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 14:15:57:000
Economic and political risks appear to be rising, but the global stock market remains resilient in terms of maintaining a strong year-to-date performance, based on an exchange-traded fund. Within the major components of this global ETF proxy, however, lies a dramatic evolution of leaders and l… read more...
July Rate Cut? Wait For The Fed's Complete Capitulation To Get Aggressive
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 13:18:24:000
Financial markets now anticipate that the Federal Reserve will begin ratcheting down rates from the 2.25%-2.50% range in July. Remarkably, the "de facto stimulus" associated with the Fed flip from rate raising to rate neutrality only lasted for six months. Reasonable criticism of the Fed's "… read more...
Technically Speaking For June 12: The Long-Term Charts Look Like They're Topping
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 12:47:05:000
CEO confidence is down for the fifth consecutive month (emphasis added): Overall economic confidence of the CEOs of some of the country's top companies has dipped another leg lower, according to the latest survey by the Business Roundtable of 127 chief executives. This barometer of CEO… read more...
Reappearance Of 'Crash Phobia' Is Good News
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 10:35:53:000
There are many signs that astute investors look for to confirm that a bottom has been made after a market decline. One of the most important signs is the tell-tale increase in investor pessimism as measured by various sentiment polls. But an even more reliable indication that the market is pri… read more...
A Rate Cut Is Coming - Here's How To Know When
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 08:23:12:000
At this point, most market participants and media talking heads are fairly certain the next move from the FOMC is a rate cut rather than a rate hike. Now, that sounds like a silly comment but just a couple of months ago, some pundits were unconvinced a rate cut would be coming in 2019 and even… read more...
Verizon: Halftime Report
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 08:00:36:000
Image via Pro Clockers . A Hedged Portfolio Around A Verizon Position Last August, I wrote about the performance of a bulletproof, or hedged, portfolio built around a position in AT&T ( T ) in 2017 and presented a new one, which completed in February (each portfolio lasts for si… read more...
Why The Market Can Repeat The 2019 Rally
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 07:47:22:000
At the end of 2018, the market was in a downward trend caused by China-U.S. trade tensions, explicit global macro deterioration and excessive tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. This set the table for the S&P 500 Index to close in negative territory as investors sold their equity pos… read more...
Past Prescient Futures: Markets Anticipate Timing But Not Magnitude Of Fed Rate Moves
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 06:45:51:000
The recent broadening and deepening yield curve inversion when longer-term Treasury note yields fall below short-term ones - has stimulated a spate of research and commentary. One thought-provoking finding comes out of Scandinavia. Anders Svendsen, Chief Analyst at Nordea Group, found… read more...
Market Leadership Looks Different In This Rally
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 05:34:52:000
The S&P 500 ( SPY ) closed Tuesday at 2886, just 2% from its all-time closing high reached at the end of April. While the index is once again approaching new highs after last week's 4%+ bounce, the constituents leading the charge look a little different than at previous market highs. In… read more...
Technically Speaking For June 11: The Rally Is Sputtering
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 12:43:20:000
Anti-trust is making a comeback. From today's NY Times (emphasis added): The Justice Department is examining complaints against Google and Apple, while the F.T.C. will handle antitrust issues related to Facebook and Amazon. Last week, the House Judiciary subcommittee on antitrust also … read more...
Don't Be A Hero
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 10:16:38:000
The "indefinite suspension" of tariffs on Mexico notwithstanding, trade tensions have not abated in earnest. Risk assets were obviously on the front foot Monday thanks in part to President Trump's decision not to pull the tariff trigger on America's southern neighbor and, naturally, the risk… read more...
Here's Why Oil Stocks Are Priced For Armageddon
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 10:12:51:000
A year after I predicted the oil price collapse , I suggested that we were at the beginning of the end of the oil age . Both times I was told I was in wrong. In fact, I was told I was crazy. Several years later, here we are, and oil is in the midst of yet another correction. Oil stocks are… read more...
The Easy VIX: VIX Futures Patterns And A Risk-Responsive Portfolio
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 08:52:39:000
In my last article, linked here , I explained how using a risk-avoidance algorithm derived from the VIX futures curve produced a 15.7% return for a basket of broadly diversified ETFs compared to a 7.3% return for a buy-and-hold strategy. I also noted that the risk avoidance aspect was critica… read more...
World Markets Update
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 06:54:28:000
By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 10, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 15.69% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 15.01%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.78%. Coming in last is Toky… read more...
A Stock Market Crash Scenario
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 06:23:49:000
Herds get spooked and run. That's the crash scenario in a nutshell. We have all been trained by a decade of central bank saves to expect any stock market swoon will soon be reversed by central bank sweet talk and/or rate cuts. As a result of such ever-present central bank willingness to … read more...
What Gold, Treasuries And The Dollar Are Telling Us
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 05:41:40:000
"I really think that people never go wrong by telling the truth." - Sydney Pollack The economy continued to flash warning signals this week. JPMorgans global composite PMI reading slipped into contraction territory falling to a 7-year low in the process. Oil ( USO ) continues its d… read more...
Daily State Of The Markets: Things Can Change Quickly These Days
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 05:17:23:000
Originally published June 10 What a difference a week can make in this game, right? Last week at this time, the market was reacting in a rather hysterical fashion, of course, to news that the President was planning to use punitive tariffs in his quest to strike a deal on immigration with M… read more...
No, Tech Companies Are Not To Blame For The Overvaluation Of The Market
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 05:16:43:000
By now, everyone knows that the US stock market is vastly overvalued no matter what metric you look at. The average P/E is 21 versus a historical average of 14, the average price to book value is 3.4 versus a historical average of 2.8, the average price to sales ratio is 2.1 versus a h… read more...
The Risk Of A Market Crash Abates - For Now
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 05:15:00:000
S&P 500 Bounces Off Long-Term Support Last week, we published a report that previewed the potential outcomes from the S&P 500's status just above a combination of its 40-week (200-day) moving average and its Long-Term Support Line, both of which had coincided at about 275 on the… read more...
The Recent Bond Yield And SPX Declines (And Now Bitcoin) Tend To Recur Year After Year
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 14:28:15:000
There has been multiple explanations and rationalizations of the very recent and sharp decline in bond yields. The most prominently published rationalization was the action taken by billionaire and former hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller's piling into US Treasuries as the US trade war wit… read more...
Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Keep Your Eye On The Ball
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 13:07:37:000
Construction Spending Construction spending was flat in April, while March saw a 1% upward revision to the previously reported 0.9% decline, leading to an increase of 0.1%. Yet the trend, as can be seen below, is discouraging. Overall, spending is down 1.2% on a year-over-year basis. Resid… read more...
Technically Speaking For June 10
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 12:46:06:000
Brexit is hurting the UK economy. The Office of National Statistics released the latest GDP report today, which reported a 0.3% increase in the latest three month period. However, growth contracted 0.1% in March and 0.4% in April, the most recent months for which data is available. A sharp… read more...
How To Find Undervalued Stocks In The Healthcare Sector
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 12:10:41:000
The healthcare sector is underperforming the market by a wide margin on a year to date basis. The Healthcare Select Sector ETF ( XLV ) has gained 5.2%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ( SPY ) is up by almost three times that, with a cumulative gain of 15.1% in the same period. Data by YCharts … read more...
Give Up The Latte Or Go To College? How To Grow A Nest Egg
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 08:11:38:000
It all started with a simple question: is college a good investment? The rabbit hole ended up being deeper than I expected. Several attempts have been made to answer this question, as the cost of going to post-secondary school has skyrocketed in the U.S. (from less than $10,000 per year in… read more...
Merger Arbitrage Analysis And Spread Performance - June 9, 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 08:09:58:000
This article explains the reasons behind the movement in a selection of the largest U.S. cash merger arbitrage spreads from the past week as calculated by Merger Arbitrage Limited . We analyze the attractiveness and profitability of each spread going forward and indicate the trading position … read more...
Top 10 S&P 500 Market Cap Weights - How Have 2019 EPS Estimates Changed?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 06:48:34:000
Since the S&P 500 peaked in late September 2018, the goal of the attached spreadsheet was to give readers a feel for the change in the EPS estimates for 2019, relative to the market action and change in the S&P 500's return. The fascinating metric for me is that the top 10 S&P 50… read more...
Trade Wars Likely To Change The Fed's Interest-Rate Game Plan
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 06:42:55:000
By Eric Winograd The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven't yet taken a major downward turn, and there'… read more...
Rollins: Everything Is Right Except For The Price
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 06:41:58:000
Source: Pctonline.com. Overview We were in a lot of really poor businesses before we found a good business. - O. Wayne Rollins Through its subsidiaries, Rollins ( ROL ) provides pest control services and protection against termite damage, rodents and insects to over 2.4 million c… read more...
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 05:40:50:000
Healthy markets don't rally 2% in one day as they did on Tuesday. This week, the market was faced with President Trump launching trade wars against Mexico and India while the US GDP is slowing, Europe's de facto economic leader Germany's manufacturing is collapsing, global trade bell weather S… read more...
Stocks Can Go Up When Bonds Show Recession
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 14:17:45:000
The common assumption is that bonds are screaming RECESSION right now, while the stock market refuses to hear it. This isnt entirely true. While the stock markets long term risk:reward is certainly not bullish, the economic data suggests that a U.S. recession is not imminent. … read more...
Tracking Al Gore's Generation Investment Management Portfolio - Q1 2019 Update
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 11:51:58:000
This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Generation Investment Management's 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Al Gore's regulatory 13F Form filed on 05/15/2019. Please visit our Tracking Al Gore's Generation Investment Manage… read more...
The Latest Jobs Report May Be A Bullish Sign For Bonds
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 11:16:40:000
It is somewhat hard to believe that it is once again the first Friday of the month. This means that it is time for yet another jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In this case, the report was rather disappointing as job creation numbers greatly missed the expectations of analyst… read more...
The Technicals Among The 5 Equity ETFs Are Mixed
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 11:11:27:000
The bulls gained control last week on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates up to three times in 2019. Keep in mind that it's unlikely that it will cut rates while still tightening as it unwinds its balance sheet. Quantitative tightening is scheduled to end in October, so cut… read more...
3 Steps To Beat Warren Buffett (At His Own Game)
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 09:11:52:000
Background The Oracle of Omaha is well-known for his long-standing track record of beating the market. Over the past 20 years, Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.A ) ( BRK.B ) was up roughly 350% while the S&P 500 delivered a total return of 211%. Source: Yahoo Finance; data as of 6/6/2019. … read more...
Real Estate Rallies After Jobs Data Puts Fed Back In Play
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 07:59:35:000
Real Estate Weekly Review Bouncing back from four straight weeks of declines, the major US equity indexes ( SPY ) ( QQQ ) each jumped more than 4% this week as softer-than-expected economic data increased the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year. The seemingly unfla… read more...
Clear And Present Danger
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 07:19:36:000
On Friday evening, the Trump administration announced that planned tariffs on all imports from Mexico are "suspended indefinitely". After the president called off the tariffs, the State department posted a joint declaration on its website outlining a series of commitments. The New York Tim… read more...
Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Investors Bank On The Fed?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 06:58:59:000
The economic calendar is important, featuring inflation data, two elements of the NBER "big four," consumer confidence, and the JOLTS report. Those needing a fix of FedSpeak are out of luck since it is the quiet period for them. The data all point to an intersection between economic strength a… read more...
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 04:26:55:000
Torsten Slok at DB updates this lovely graph on occasion. Here's what it means. Fed fund futures are essentially bets on where the federal funds rate will be at various points in the future. Thus, you can read from the dashed lines the market's guess about where the federal funds rate will go … read more...
Should Markets Heed Recession Warnings?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 02:46:36:000
By Edward Perks, E xecutive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions Amid a renewed US-China trade spat and additional tariff tensions between the United States and Mexico, investor concerns about a possible recession have heightened, accord… read more...
Recession Anxieties, June 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 13:55:23:000
Editor's note: This article was originally published on June 7, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . Different forward looking models show increasing likelihood of a recession. Most recent readings of key series highlighted by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) suggest a peak, altho… read more...
Welcome To The Decade Of Slow Economic Growth
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 12:52:29:000
The world economy has grown tremendously in the last 100 years driven by multiple factors such as population growth, technological advancements and rapid urbanization, not to mention a healthy dose of inflation (with exceptions) throughout the time. We expect the global economic growth to slow… read more...
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