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SFLA

iPath Long Extended S&P 500 TR Index ETN

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Summary

The investment seeks to provide investors with leveraged return on the performance of the S&P 500® Total Return Index. The S&P 500® Total Return Index (the "index") is a capitalization-weighted index intended to provide an indication of the pattern of stock price movement in the U.S. equities market, covering 75% of total U.S. equities market. S&P chooses companies for inclusion in the index with the aim of achieving a distribution by broad industry groupings that approximates the distribution of these groupings in the common stock population of the U.S. equities market.

Market Cap: 1.85 Million

Primary Exchange: NYSE Arca

Website:

Shares Outstanding: 8.59 Thousand

Float: 8.59 Thousand

Dividend: 0.0 (0.0%)

Beta: 2.376055

Sector:

Industry:

Short Interest (Jan 15, 2013): 1.32 Thousand

Ethical Flags

Gambling

Longest drawdown: 198 trading days

From: 2015-11-24 To: 2016-11-01

Lowest Point:

Sentiment Now Broadly Bearish

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-13 00:04:28:000

In prior posts highlighting investor sentiment data it has been noted that sentiment data is more actionable at market bottoms than at market tops. Knowing this, the American Association of Individual Investors reported bullish investor sentiment at 26.1%, which is below the minus 1 standard… read more...

Sentiment Now Broadly Bearish

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-13 00:04:28:000

In prior posts highlighting investor sentiment data it has been noted that sentiment data is more actionable at market bottoms than at market tops. Knowing this, the American Association of Individual Investors reported bullish investor sentiment at 26.1%, which is below the minus 1 standard… read more...

Lots Of Noise, Little Headway

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 23:20:25:000

Despite massive volatility on a day-to-day basis, it may sound hard to believe, but the S&P 500 is currently trading right where it was nearly two months ago on February 13th. You read that right, in what has been the most volatile market environment in at least a couple of years, the S&am… read more...

Lots Of Noise, Little Headway

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 23:20:25:000

Despite massive volatility on a day-to-day basis, it may sound hard to believe, but the S&P 500 is currently trading right where it was nearly two months ago on February 13th. You read that right, in what has been the most volatile market environment in at least a couple of years, the S&am… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - April 12, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 11:04:22:000

The BCI at 237.9 is below last week's downward revised 238.1, and it is below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 83.7. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg is at 13.1, which is below last week's downward revised 13.6. Both BCIp and BCIg and do not sig… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - April 12, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 11:04:22:000

The BCI at 237.9 is below last week's downward revised 238.1, and it is below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 83.7. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg is at 13.1, which is below last week's downward revised 13.6. Both BCIp and BCIg and do not sig… read more...

Individual Investors Bail

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 10:05:32:000

2018 hasn't been the year for the little guy. Late last year, individual investors appeared to be finally getting comfortable with stocks as bullish sentiment in the weekly poll from AAII topped 50% for the first time in nearly three years. For a little while, they enjoyed the ride as equiti… read more...

Individual Investors Bail

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 10:05:32:000

2018 hasn't been the year for the little guy. Late last year, individual investors appeared to be finally getting comfortable with stocks as bullish sentiment in the weekly poll from AAII topped 50% for the first time in nearly three years. For a little while, they enjoyed the ride as equiti… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Positioning For The Parade?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 09:56:10:000

Although the major stock market averages failed to rise or fall by 1% or more on Wednesday (which has been the trend recently), the volatile, news-driven environment remained. In the early going, it appeared that traders might be able to shake off the news that geopolitical tensions with Rus… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Positioning For The Parade?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 09:56:10:000

Although the major stock market averages failed to rise or fall by 1% or more on Wednesday (which has been the trend recently), the volatile, news-driven environment remained. In the early going, it appeared that traders might be able to shake off the news that geopolitical tensions with Rus… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 9K, Slightly Worse Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 09:50:57:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending April 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 23… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 9K, Slightly Worse Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 09:50:57:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending April 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 23… read more...

A Record Streak In Jobless Claims

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 09:43:44:000

Jobless claims came in higher than expected for the second time in a row this week, but the report was still monumental from a historical perspective. While economists were forecasting first time claims to fall to 230K from last week's higher than expected level of 242K, the actual reading cam… read more...

A Record Streak In Jobless Claims

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 09:43:44:000

Jobless claims came in higher than expected for the second time in a row this week, but the report was still monumental from a historical perspective. While economists were forecasting first time claims to fall to 230K from last week's higher than expected level of 242K, the actual reading cam… read more...

How Portfolios Should Get Through This Market Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 09:43:27:000

The turmoil is payback for a period when markets were repressed by central banks and cash-rich corporations. The transition from liquidity-powered markets for risk assets to those influenced a lot more by fundamentals was never likely to be smooth, as it involved changes to drivers of invest… read more...

How Portfolios Should Get Through This Market Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 09:43:27:000

The turmoil is payback for a period when markets were repressed by central banks and cash-rich corporations. The transition from liquidity-powered markets for risk assets to those influenced a lot more by fundamentals was never likely to be smooth, as it involved changes to drivers of invest… read more...

It's Time To Rethink Equity Defense

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 08:17:08:000

Kate explains what may constitute the new defense in stocks as rates transition from "lower for longer" to higher at long last. Equity markets are at a crossroads. High-yielding "bond proxy" stocks earned their stripes as equity safe havens for much of the bull market period, as bond yie… read more...

It's Time To Rethink Equity Defense

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 08:17:08:000

Kate explains what may constitute the new defense in stocks as rates transition from "lower for longer" to higher at long last. Equity markets are at a crossroads. High-yielding "bond proxy" stocks earned their stripes as equity safe havens for much of the bull market period, as bond yie… read more...

Ruffer Investment Q1'18 Commentary - VIX To Rocket Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 08:06:53:000

By VW Staff Ruffer Investment commentary for the first quarter ended March 31, 2018. The markets have lost their sense of invincibility, but it has not resulted in an up-quarter at Ruffer. True, stock markets have been down by more than our portfolios, but the point of investment is to… read more...

Ruffer Investment Q1'18 Commentary - VIX To Rocket Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-04-12 08:06:53:000

By VW Staff Ruffer Investment commentary for the first quarter ended March 31, 2018. The markets have lost their sense of invincibility, but it has not resulted in an up-quarter at Ruffer. True, stock markets have been down by more than our portfolios, but the point of investment is to… read more...

Despite Market Turmoil, Momentum Factor Still Dominates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 17:44:39:000

The recent spike in stock market volatility has dented the momentum factor's powerful bull run, but the strategy continues to reign supreme over its main competitors in the US equity factor space, based on a set of proxy ETFs. For the one-year trend, it's still a one-factor race. The iShar… read more...

Why A New Bear Market Is Unlikely

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 17:36:36:000

It has been just over a week since the stock markets panic attack and already some observers are suggesting that another 2008-type crash lies ahead. In this commentary well look at evidence which decisively disproves this overly pessimistic conclusion. Well also see tha… read more...

40% Later In U.S. Stocks: Fasten Your Seatbelts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 16:35:29:000

Stocks have powered higher as expected Three years ago I wrote an article on Seeking Alpha stating that, Equity Bears Still Don't Get It . The "most hated bull market in history" has since powered on to a gain of 50% in the Dow at the recent peak and despite the correction in February, the … read more...

Has The Market Peaked?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 11:48:54:000

S&P ( SPY ) had some of the worst days in its history in the last two weeks. The index has steeply fallen lately and is now 9% off its recent all-time high. In addition, the volatility index or fear index, VIX, has dramatically increased, from 11 to 26, during this period. Therefore, as th… read more...

An Olympian's Guide To The Market Selloff: Seeking Rewards In High-Risk Situations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 11:20:50:000

Today Id like to share a few words about the Olympics, but first, two words: Dont panic. The stock selloffs last Monday and Thursday were the two biggest daily point drops in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but in terms of percentage point losses, they don&#x… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: What's Next? Look To History As A Guide

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 11:12:50:000

One of my favorite jokes about Wall Street goes something like this: The first time something happens on Wall Street, it's called it a trend. If it happens twice in a row, it's a tradition. And if it happens three times in a row, well, it's darned near a commandment! I guess it is good news … read more...

Technically Speaking: Is The Correction Over?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 10:59:16:000

Over the last couple of months, we have been warning of an impending correction due to the massive extension above longer-term moving averages. To wit: "Just remember, bull-runs are a one-way trip. Currently, there are just 200 points of upside until the S&P 500 hits a majo… read more...

This Time Is Different. Really?!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 10:19:31:000

Dont panic, buy the dip, who cares? or These are rumblings of an earthquake, people will be hurt like in 1929 - which one is it? I would call it a wake-up call. Let me explain: In recent years, markets had appeared eerily safe. Centra… read more...

10 Things To Consider About The Stock Market Sell-Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 09:59:44:000

I appreciated El-Erians measured reflective demeanor and honest considered comments regarding the recent stock market sell-off in his Bloomberg article republished February 11, 2018 at SA ( 10 Things To Know About The Stock Market Sell-Off ). The article helped me organize my thoughts … read more...

The Fundamentals Of The Economy Are Strong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-13 09:44:29:000

This past week was perhaps the most volatile the overall equity markets (NYSE: VTI ) have seen since the 2008 financial crisis. With the Dow having traveled an incredible over 22,000 intraday points during the week and with the VIX soaring to levels unseen in years, many investors were enjo… read more...

A Look At Some Post-Bottom Opportunities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 12:42:21:000

The bulls finally showed some initiative on Friday, pushing the major averages back from the proverbial brink with a strong finish. It was a positive ending to an otherwise nauseating weak which saw the S&P 500 Index (SPX) shed 9%. In this commentary well look at the latest market … read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: The Biggest Change Seen Last Week Was...

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 12:33:54:000

I like to start each week by reviewing ((A)) my key market indicators and ((B)) the macro picture of the current market environment. As such, my Monday morning market missive is intended to cover both. Let's start by taking a quick survey of the damage the stock market's decline has inflic… read more...

Pullbacks, Indicators, Barometers, And Fear

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 11:51:23:000

So most know we took one of our South Florida speaking tours last week. Such tours consist of meeting with portfolio managers, presentations to clients of Raymond James, branch visits with our financial advisors, doing the media thing, well you get the idea. To all of those emailers/callers we… read more...

Off The Grid

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 11:47:21:000

I am sitting on the Dough Boy and Dough Girl's boat. It is a balmy Sunday afternoon. The water is bright blue and sparkling, just like the sky. The temperature is 82 degrees, or so, and the breeze is a gentle whiff across the Bahamas' Exuma Islands. It is almost idyllic, except that I am cut-o… read more...

Tax Cuts, Hurricanes, Fires And A Good Jobs Report = Correction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 11:40:35:000

I am writing this from Buenos Aires, Argentina, which maybe provides a good perspective for this piece. I was riding the subte (the subway) the other day, and a young man got on and started playing Nostalgias, a beautiful tango on the clarinet. I felt in my pocket and came up with a 10 peso no… read more...

Monday Market Movement - Recovering Or Just Bouncing?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 11:31:36:000

We're up 300 more points! That would be exciting but it's only 1.25%, which is what our 5% Rule predicted and, at this stage, is certainly no sign of market strength yet. While we flipped bullish in Friday Morning's PSW Report , with a long at Dow (/YM) 24,000 that is now up $2,5… read more...

U.S. Rates: Real Or Expectations?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 11:26:24:000

There is a general understanding of what happened last week. The 2.9% rise in average hourly earnings in the US was reported - the fastest since 2009 spurred fears of rising inflation. The jump in US interest rates triggered equity sales and a spike in volatility, which in turn spurred the u… read more...

Higher Risk Can Lead To Lower Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 10:20:55:000

Source: Stock photo Do you believe that taking riskier equity exposures should reward you with higher returns? Most finance education is founded on the idea that higher risk leads to higher returns. Taking incremental risk would not be worthwhile otherwise. Over the long run (past 10 and 2… read more...

Harmonic Tremor

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 09:21:43:000

"Stupidity is an elemental force for which no earthquake is a match." - Karl Kraus, Austrian Writer Watching with interest the tragedy unfold on the short gamma crowd through the demise of the short volatility ETN and ETF complex, sending markets into some tailspin and causing additional h… read more...

Market Meltdown: What You Need To Know To Profit From The Madness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-12 08:32:29:000

Source: imgflip What an exciting week! We saw the return of volatility (with a vengeance), a flash crash, and the market fall 5.2%; the worst week since January 2016. More importantly, the moment value investors have been waiting two years for, the official start of a market correction, … read more...

10 Things To Know About The Stock Market Sell-Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 14:11:32:000

Experienced investors understand how hard it is to call a bottom. As U.S. stock markets conclude one of the wildest and worst weeks since the global financial crisis, here are 10 things to know about the selloff: It is driven by technicals, not fundamentals. The ongoing market correction… read more...

What Happens Next? The Great Global Risk Repricing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 11:46:11:000

Following swiftly on from the last post's synopsis of the changing narratives of last week , in the famous words of a UK TV sports quiz show, it's time for "What happens next?". When a clip is shown and the contestants have to guess the, normally unlikely, outcome. The clip shows US equitie… read more...

Valuation And Bear Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 10:52:03:000

U.S. equity valuations are high. How high? In January, the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E) ratio rose to 33.76. This is more than double the average historical CAPE Ratio since 1990. It is also higher than every period in history with the exception of the late 1990s on the way up (February … read more...

What Would Buffett Do Now?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 10:26:48:000

When you experience a market like last week, you must step back and review your core beliefs and underlying fundamentals. After all, the stock market is comprised of real companies with sales, earnings, cash flow and balance sheets. And price is forecasted by discounting a stream of future e… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Irrationality Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 06:37:04:000

Corrections only are considered natural, normal, and healthy until they actually happen. . Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity . From the view at 30,000 feet, the recent volatility and pullback is all part of the regular ebb and flow that occurs in th… read more...

Deja Vu 2007 - Is The Stock Market Overvalued? Estimating Returns To 2020 And Beyond, Update Jan.-2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 04:54:58:000

About five and a half years ago, it was fairly obvious that a major bull market had commenced in 2009 (Appendix A). Also a statistical analysis of the inflation adjusted historic data of the S&P-Composite from 1871 to 2012 indicated the same then. Since August 2012, the S&P 500 with di… read more...

Gut Vs. Emotion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 01:48:59:000

My Esquire piece on big tech getting bigly (I know, I know) is live online and hits newsstands next week. What. A. Thrill. Gut vs. Emotion Instinct is powerful, and useful. Were blessed with millions of years of experience that register a strong sense you shou… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Inflation Data Extend The Market Declines?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 23:55:30:000

The economic calendar is heavy. In the battle of competing explanations for the market declines, the inflation story has taken center stage. With both PPI and CPI scheduled for release this week, I expect many to be asking: Will rising inflation spark another leg down for bonds and stocks?… read more...

Fred Sanford And The Week That Rocked Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 11:34:21:000

If you take anything away from this week, let it be that it's important to try and sort out the difference between the Fred Sanfords of the world and the people identifying quantifiable risks that, while unlikely to imperil the entire global financial system, still have the potential to create… read more...

Fred Sanford And The Week That Rocked Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 11:34:21:000

If you take anything away from this week, let it be that it's important to try and sort out the difference between the Fred Sanfords of the world and the people identifying quantifiable risks that, while unlikely to imperil the entire global financial system, still have the potential to create… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: More Declines, A Correction, And Market Sell-Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 10:44:34:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 continued its decline from last Friday, ending the tumultuous week with a loss of 5.16% from last Friday. This week saw a correction on Thursday, 10.16% off its high. The index is 8.82% off its record close. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on th… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: More Declines, A Correction, And Market Sell-Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 10:44:34:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 continued its decline from last Friday, ending the tumultuous week with a loss of 5.16% from last Friday. This week saw a correction on Thursday, 10.16% off its high. The index is 8.82% off its record close. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on th… read more...

It's Going To Take More Than A Week For The Market To Sort Itself Out

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 09:36:13:000

There are times when I sit down to compose the Weekly Wrap that, frankly, it is a bit of a struggle. The markets and the economy don't always provide inspiration. This was not one of those weeks. Holy cow! The hyper volatility that we've been warning was on the horizon has stormed in, sending … read more...

S&P 500 'Earnings Yield' Jumps To 6.1%, Forward Growth Rate To 20%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 09:18:36:000

Given the market action this week, I wondered if Street analysts would pull in their bullishness on forward S&P 500 estimates and that absolutely didn't happen. Here is the Thomson Reuters data by the numbers: Fwd 4-qtr est: $157.28 P/E ratio: 16.4x PEG ratio: 0.84… read more...

Volatility Shakes Up Markets. Is The Worst Yet To Come?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 09:11:55:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Consulting Director Todd LaFountaine and Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman discussed the catalyst and potential future implications surrounding this week's global market sell-off. What led to the market sell-off? The starting po… read more...

Equity Market Selloff And Asset Allocation Strategies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 09:01:41:000

U.S. equity markets are now approaching correction territory. Is the heightened volatility the new normal and what does that mean for your portfolio? Adnann Syed, Sr. Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Management , talks to Sara D'Elia about why equities are dropping, triggers to watch for, and… read more...

Unsustainable?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 08:54:02:000

I suppose I ought to say something about the recent stock market turmoil, even though I don't have any great insights. (I recommend John Cochrane's recent post .) I generally divide shocks up into two types. There are negative demand shocks, like 1929 and 2008. Then there are real shocks,… read more...

Is It A Bear Market Yet?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 08:46:25:000

The latest plunge in the US stock market left the S&P 500's drawdown at a bit more than 10%. That's the amount of red ink that brings usually out the "correction" label. The latest slide has also inspired fresh chatter about the possibility that a bear market is near, which is widely defin… read more...

Technically Speaking: A Close Look At The Carnage

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 06:57:21:000

Blood, Sweat and Tears is a band that never really gets the full credit they deserve. Falling into the same vein as Chicago, BS&T had a great horn section and tight rhythm section. They were also the musical home to jazz guitarist Mike Stern (a minor favorite of mine) for several years. I … read more...

Stock Selling Unleashed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-10 01:27:35:000

The unnaturally-tranquil stock markets suddenly plunged over this past week. Volatility skyrocketed out of the blue and shattered years of artificial calm conjured by extreme central-bank distortions. This was a huge shock to the legions of hyper-complacent traders, who are realizing stocks do… read more...

Quick Global Equity Income View: Anatomy Of A Sell-Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 14:52:27:000

Ben Lofthouse, Head of Global Equity Income, examines the effects of the recent equity market sell-off on European cyclical and defensive stocks. There has been a sharp sell-off in the markets over the last few days. While painful for investors, there have been some interesting technical… read more...

The Dumb Money Investor Was Crushed This Week In The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 13:19:32:000

Mom and Pop retail investors, known on Wall Street as "dumb money", are always the last ones to the party. That holds especially true today. In the case of the recent stock market crash, the dumb money retail investors are the ones getting crushed. After sitting in fear on the sidelines for … read more...

1999-2000 Party Patterns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 13:07:57:000

Fractals are patterned shapes that exist at different temporal scales. They are ubiquitous in nature, such as the large-scale outline of a continental coastline, and the close-up outline of a smaller chunk of the coastline; both show the same shape but at different scales. It is not clear why … read more...

It's The Bottom, Darn It!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 12:20:21:000

With the stock market rising over the past 9 years we have reached a point where it is impossible to hold onto ourselves in denial. The market will continue to decline as the VIX Index has been warning us for 4 months quite clearly that it was forming a huge and solid bottom at 9 points (see… read more...

A Much Needed Equity-Income Valuation Reset Is Underway

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 12:07:12:000

Call me amongst many market watchers that have felt no shock value given recent market volatility. Valuations have been running hot for some time now, and frankly a bit of a pullback shouldn't be unexpected. What has been somewhat unexpected has been the sudden surge forward in bond yie… read more...

Look Before You Leap

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 11:59:13:000

Just when many investors had assumed it was okay to do some buying, the market surprised them on Thursday with another big downside move. This underscored what Ive emphasized in recent commentaries, namely that a stock market bottom hasnt been confirmed yet. Many investors are … read more...

Stocks Have Gone From Overvalued To Fairly Valued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 10:32:07:000

By Spencer England With the market falling like it did over the past week, it may prove valuable to look at the PE and some other economic reports. In my PE model, the market became overvalued in December and January. The last observation is at the market close on Thursday, 8 February 2018… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Record Weekly Outflows Just After Record Monthly Inflows For U.S. Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 10:23:09:000

Market Intro CNBC: 9:33AM EST Well, US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are going for another attempt on the Friday morning session. And given that the US government shutdown was quickly dodged, there may be reason to celebrate indeed. Note to reader: these markets are so whips… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Is This Really About Rates?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 09:52:51:000

I usually don't write on Friday mornings. However, with the Dow experiencing its second quadruple-digit dance to the downside of the week yesterday, I figured it was probably time to make an exception. The goal of this morning's hopefully not-so meandering market missive is to try and answer… read more...

Friday Free-Fall - Stop The Markets, We Want To Get Off!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 09:37:46:000

The Dow gave up another 1,000 points yesterday and President Trump is now presiding over the worst week in stock market history. Was it because he blew up the budget, because he got rid of Janet Yellen, or some other reason. What is clear is that the US looks a little scary to investors. It'… read more...

Stocks Fall: Why Now, What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 16:52:14:000

By JEFFREY KLEINTOP What happened? Last week was the worst week for global stocks since early 2016 when fears of a sharp slowdown in Chinas growth shook world markets and bond yields plunged. Now, the catalyst isnt fear of a growth slowdown, it is fear of too much growth an… read more...

S&P 500 down 2% as bond yields rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 15:15:27:000

The broad market looks like it will end in the red again, albeit on average or lower-than-average volume, as investors remain skittish about interest rates. The major indexes are all down ~ 2.5% . More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF, SPDR Dow Jones Industria… read more...

Flailing Thursday - Trouble At 2,700

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 15:06:36:000

Well, that about sums it up, right? As I said in yesterday morning's Report: " On the whole, I'd rather if we consolidate here before even popping above 2,700 again as 2,850 was too high. Hopefully we can hang around 2,650 for a week or two and form a proper base before trying to move high… read more...

Jobless Claims Make Another Record Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 14:08:31:000

By New Deal Democrat One reason not to get excited about the last week's stock market swoon is that it isn't being confirmed by any other short-term leading indicators. Most significantly, jobless claims. The 4-week moving average of new jobless claims has fallen below 225,000. This is y… read more...

VIX Vs. Stock Market Volatility: Similar But Different

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 13:58:42:000

The recent plunge in the US stock market ended the extended run of tranquility in equity returns. The media's metric of choice to cite this change is the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which surged earlier this week to the highest level in nearly three years, based on daily data. The upward … read more...

What Goes Up Must Come Down

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 13:53:32:000

By Andy Rachleff Yesterday, the Dow plunged almost 1,600 points, the biggest single day point (but not percentage) decline in history. If the past is any predictor of the future, I would expect many of our clients will feel incredibly unsettled as a result. The situation reminds me a lot o… read more...

The Stock Market Is Somewhat Fairly Valued Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 11:45:55:000

Introduction Earlier this week, I wrote a piece " There Is No Bubble: Why Stock Bears Continue To Cry Danger " criticizing popular valuation metrics. All three indicators rely on a time series analysis where current readings are compared to the long-term averages. However, the main criti… read more...

The Stock Market Is Somewhat Fairly Valued Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 11:45:55:000

Introduction Earlier this week, I wrote a piece " There Is No Bubble: Why Stock Bears Continue To Cry Danger " criticizing popular valuation metrics. All three indicators rely on a time series analysis where current readings are compared to the long-term averages. However, the main criti… read more...

The Bottoming Process Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 10:34:18:000

Now that the dust has settled from the stock markets latest turmoil, investors are now trying to ascertain whether the damage it inflicted will be of temporary or of lasting duration. As Ill argue in this review, the market should soon regain its footing and eventually recove… read more...

The Bottoming Process Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 10:34:18:000

Now that the dust has settled from the stock markets latest turmoil, investors are now trying to ascertain whether the damage it inflicted will be of temporary or of lasting duration. As Ill argue in this review, the market should soon regain its footing and eventually recove… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Where Is The Equilibrium Point?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 09:38:54:000

As I wrote on Tuesday, the question of the day (for me at least) remains the same on this fine Thursday morning. What is real and what is artificial? Sure, stocks bounced right on cue after getting sucker punched by what I believe was a 12-standard deviation move in the volatility complex. I… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Where Is The Equilibrium Point?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 09:38:54:000

As I wrote on Tuesday, the question of the day (for me at least) remains the same on this fine Thursday morning. What is real and what is artificial? Sure, stocks bounced right on cue after getting sucker punched by what I believe was a 12-standard deviation move in the volatility complex. I… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - February 8, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 09:32:42:000

The BCI at 236.3 is below last week's downward revised 237.6, and it is below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 84.5. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg is at 16.3, which is below last week's downward revised 17.3. Both BCIp and BCIg do not signaling … read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - February 8, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 09:32:42:000

The BCI at 236.3 is below last week's downward revised 237.6, and it is below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 84.5. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg is at 16.3, which is below last week's downward revised 17.3. Both BCIp and BCIg do not signaling … read more...

Multimedia Weekly Digest: Much Ado About Sell-Offs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 09:30:56:000

Welcome to SA Multimedia Digest, where we combine videos and podcasts from across Seeking Alpha's contributor base into a single weekly article. Some people have been expecting it for months, some not quite yet and some never expect it. We're talking of course about the market's recent sell-… read more...

Extreme Weather... In The Stock Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 09:03:12:000

By Jerry Wagner In the last 12 months, we have heard a lot about extreme weather. Three major hurricanes will certainly cause this. But wait, there's more. Record low temperatures at the beginning of January were followed by balmy temperatures at the end. Heat waves and water shortages e… read more...

Is Good News Really Bad Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 08:56:59:000

I was at my desk wondering how risky the equity markets have become when I saw a few breaking developments regarding stocks: Early on "which way Wedn esday," President Trump tweeted : In the "old days," when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news … read more...

Odds Are This Bull Ain't Dead Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 08:49:13:000

The case for continuation of the bull market One of the key skills shared by all great traders and investors is the ability to imagine a set of possible outcomes that could result from a trade under consideration, and then assign a probability to each of the outcomes. It's more of an art tha… read more...

Wynken, Blynken, And Nod One Night

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 08:24:53:000

Yes, right, "Sailed off in a wooden shoe." This children's rhyme, in the adult version, began in November 2008, as the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States began buying Treasuries and Agency securities. They paid for them with a currency of their own making, that looked suspiciously lik… read more...

Futures back up after volatile week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-08 08:21:12:000

As corporate results pour in this morning, U.S. stock index futures are in the green again following the most volatile week of trading in more than two-and-a-half years. Dow +0.1% ; S&P 500 +0.2% ; Nasdaq +0.4% . More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF, S… read more...

Moody's Economist: U.S. Economy Losing Momentum, Nearing Full Capacity

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 09:32:57:000

Andres Carbacho-Burgos is a senior economist at Moody's Analytics. Previously he was an economics professor at Texas State University. Harlan Levy: What do you think of the January job numbers, up 200,000? Andres Carbacho-Burgos: They were good, about what we expected, and they indic… read more...

Vulcan Value Partners Q4 2017 Quarterly Letter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 08:09:53:000

Read more … read more...

You're All Heisenberg This Weekend

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 07:52:16:000

When your options for how to spend weekend leisure time are constrained by the dearth of activity that characterizes beach life in February and also by restrictions on the consumption of inebriating substances, it's nice to have a hobby. Because without a hobby, being on a literal island in th… read more...

There, In The Distance, A Black Swan

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 07:29:19:000

You know all those times you've heard people reminisce about the Bernanke tantrum and the great bund tantrum of 2015? Yeah, well this is what a tantrum episode feels like. That comes from Friday evening's " bad dream ". It occurred to me on Saturday morning that a lot of readers might not … read more...

A Note Ahead Of U.S. Jobs Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 07:12:15:000

The US dollar is sporting a firmer profile against all the major currencies after weakening yesterday. Frequently, it seems the Australian dollar leads the other currencies, and we note that it is making a new low for the week today. Briefly, in Europe, it slipped below its 20-day moving (~$… read more...

It's Looking A Lot Like 2008 Now...

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 06:10:00:000

Economic and market conditions are eerily like they were in late 2007/early 2008. Remember back then? Everything was going great. Home prices were soaring. Jobs were plentiful. The great cultural marketing machine was busy proclaiming that a new era of permanent prosperity had dawned, thanks… read more...

How I Think About Asset Allocation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 06:01:35:000

How I Think About Asset Allocation The stock market has rallied in a truly remarkable way over the past twelve months. The underlying economy improved from 2016-2017 which warranted a move higher in stocks from the depressed levels of early 2016 but no one could have anticipated the eupho… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: A Cooling Off Period Now For A Very Hot Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 05:34:17:000

There is a great difference between worry and concern. A worried person sees a problem, and a concerned person solves a problem. Harold Stephen January is in the books and the S&P 500 marched to gain of 5.6%. That achievement is more th… read more...

How Have 2018 Growth Expectations Changed By Sector?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 05:32:57:000

This blog post (see link) was written last December 2017, and given the tax reform and the hefty 6% return for the S&P 500 in January 2018, I thought a refresher might be in order. Since Thomson doesn't publish annual revenue estimates, FactSet's revenue estimates are used, although th… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: The Return Of Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 04:48:35:000

The economic calendar is light. That leaves plenty of time for the pontificating punditry to opine on a possible turning point in markets, bubbles and overheating, the Fed, geopolitical risks, and continuing Washington turmoil. Many will be asking: What does the increased volatility mean f… read more...

Market Got You Worried? The Economic Fundamentals Say Don't Be

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 10:31:18:000

It's been awhile since we've had a correction. And the depth of Friday's sell-off can make people really concerned. At times like this, it's important to remember that the stock market doesn't function in a vacuum; it's a reflection of an underlying system - namely, the U.S. economy. And that … read more...

OK, That Was Bad; Where To Now?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 10:22:16:000

I'm pretty fond of reminding readers that when you pan out to the asset class level (i.e., beyond sectors and well beyond individual stocks, although thanks to the dominance of FAAMG, a handful of names are becoming uncomfortably synonymous with the entire equity market), making predictions wi… read more...

Technically Speaking: It's The Bond Market's Fault

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 09:41:21:000

When I was growing up, my Mom had a close friend named Aunt Janice. Not only did she make great chocolate chip cookies, she also looked just like Janet Yellen. To this day, I cant watch a Yellen press conference without thinking about chocolate chip cookies (which, I have to admit, mak… read more...

A Random Reversion On Wall Street

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 07:31:47:000

By Ryan Puplava What goes up, must come down. And it was finally the stock market's turn to take some profits aside. Friday's 2.13% decline in the S&P 500 was the bookend to a week's drop of 3.86% - all while the majority of companies this week produced positive earnings and sales surp… read more...

Expect Further Market Melt-Up After Pullback, Says Jeff DeGraaf

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 07:22:30:000

By FS Staff The long-awaited correction in the stock market finally took place this week, with the S&P 500, Dow, and other major averages currently down over 3% from their late-January highs. Is this the top or the end of the bull market? Financial Sense Newshour just had the honor o… read more...

Where's The Inflation? Average Weekly Earnings Flat, Focus On 200k Instead Which Isn't Even A Good Number

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 06:39:45:000

The unemployment rate, I'm sorry to report, didn't tumble all the way to zero. Pity. It did stay at 4.1% for the fourth straight month. Because of that, wage pressures should be exploding right now. That seems to be the verdict in markets this morning, a rumble of inflation shot right through … read more...

2018 Estimated S&P 500 Earnings Growth Rises To 18%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 03:00:26:000

Last week, this blog post was shown in order for readers to get a sense for how fast S&P 500 earnings were accelerating. With the Thomson Reuters data out this Friday, the 2018 "estimated" S&P 500 earnings growth rate is now 17.7% (let's say 18%), up from last week's 16%. What's … read more...

Snap Back To Reality: Bond Yields Deliver A Long-Awaited Blow To Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 02:51:59:000

Well, this past week was something different as equities took it on the chin! By Friday morning, every major equity index in the U.S. was on track to experience its worst week in two years as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved over 2.8%, hitting the highest level we've seen in over four yea… read more...

U.S. Wage Growth Surges - Is A More Hawkish Fed Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 02:38:29:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Consulting Director Sophie Antal Gilbert and Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman discussed the highlights from the U.S. employment report for January, in addition to the recent decline in equity markets and the latest GDP number for t… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: Largest Daily Loss Since 2016

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-03 02:29:14:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 began dropping on Tuesday and plummeted on Friday, closing with a daily loss of 2.12% and a weekly loss of 3.85%. Today marks the index's largest daily loss since September 2016 (2.45%). The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.8… read more...

U.S. Hiring Rebounds In January But 1-Year Trend Eases

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 18:49:41:000

Companies in the US added 196,000 workers in January, according to this morning's report from the Labor Department. The gain beat expectations for a 172,000 increase, according to Econoday.com's consensus forecast. The stronger print for the private sector isn't really a surprise, considerin… read more...

Shale Oil Again Gaining Global Market Share

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 15:22:53:000

U.S. Shales Delivering Solid Oil Production Growth The U.S. oil industry posted another impressive monthly production increase, demonstrating the competitiveness and fast response of North America's crude supply. Based on the EIA's survey released this week, U.S. production of crude oil … read more...

An Overheating U.S. Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 15:13:15:000

When you throw oil on an already well lit fire, you risk overheating and this seems exactly what is starting to happen right now in the US economy. The US recovery from the financial crisis was already one of the longest post-war upturns in economic activity, even if it was disparaged by som… read more...

Why Rising Rates Won't Crash The Party

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 11:49:04:000

Investors are once again becoming nervous. An extended decline in bond prices and corresponding rise in yields has helped fuel their growing concerns about the stock market's prospects. The latest plunge of the Bitcoin price also has added some fuel to some investors speculation that… read more...

Make Good News Bad Again: Jobs Report Heightens Fear Of Vicious Bond Bear

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 10:10:38:000

Ok, this is when I get to remind you about the whole "good news is bad news" thing again. As usual, I'm writing this in real-time, so it comes with the "never underestimate the dip-buyers" caveat, but have a look at this CNBC headline: That would seem paradoxical to the uninitiated, but … read more...

The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling A Recession: Update - February 2, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 09:43:55:000

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the February 2018 rate … read more...

The After-January Effect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 09:35:45:000

Whether youre new to the market or an experienced trader, we all know the phrase As January goes, so does the market. Its called the January effect . If its true, 2018 could be a remarkably good year. By looking back at monthly returns of the sector SPD… read more...

Back Up The Rabbit Hole

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 09:14:28:000

It started with the demise of Lehman Brothers and continued on right up until this day. It may have begun as a "Save the World" play, but it morphed into something else entirely. The world's central banks, a very tiny group of unelected people, kept up the cycle for almost a decade. "Pixie Dus… read more...

Sizable losses in store at the open

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 07:17:17:000

In most market cycles, higher interest rates have little effect on markets … until they do. The cryptocurrency sector has been the most frothy space this time around, and it's in full crash mode now , with double-digit percentage daily declines the norm. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 T... read more...

Are Investors Too Bullish?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 06:20:13:000

By Matthew Carr , Emerging Trends Strategist, The Oxford Club Investing legend Jim Rogers famously said, "Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows… They end with 10- or 15-year lows." That's something I've always taken to heart. So when I see an asset or secto... read more...

The S&P 500 In February:  A Dramatic Rise In Negative Tail Risk

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 11:36:56:000

But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one. - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional stock … read more...

Q4 2017: GDP Is Much Less Than Meets The Eye

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 11:30:38:000

NOTE: We delayed reporting our usual quarterly report until todays Fed meeting to see if rates would hike or if the Fed had a substantially different view than ours. ________________________________ The last quarter of 2017 GDP came in at 2.6 percent on the first estimate, below … read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - February 1, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 10:58:22:000

The BCI at 239.2 is above last week's downward revised 238.5, and it is at a new high for this business cycle as indicated by the BCIp at 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg is at 17.8, which is above last week's downward revised 17.5 . No recession is signaled. Figure 1… read more...

Individual Investors A Bit Less Confident

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 10:37:34:000

For all the talk about a supposed correction in the last few days, you wouldn't know it from the chart of the S&P 500 and bullish sentiment below. If you squint real close, you can see something resembling a small decline for the S&P 500 (red line), but it's negligible at best. That ha… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K, Better Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 10:36:21:000

by Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending January 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down… read more...

Jobless Claims Drop To 230K

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 10:25:16:000

Jobless claims were lower than expected this week and continue to hang around near their lowest levels in decades. While economists were expecting claims to rise from 231K up to 235K, they actually fell slightly to 230K. Throughout the entire economic expansion, jobless claims have only been l… read more...

Major Asset Classes - January 2018 - Performance Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 10:25:05:000

Stocks in emerging markets blasted out of the gate for the start of 2018, once again posting the strongest monthly gain for the major asset classes. Overall, most markets advanced in January, with three exceptions: US real estate trusts (REITs), which suffered the biggest loss last month, alon… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Welcome To Wait-And-See Mode

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 09:50:20:000

After Tuesday's dance to the downside, it is easy to fall into a trap by thinking that the next trading day will become a "tell" for what will happen next. Although "confirmation" of a move is indeed a thing in technical analysis, it is important to remember that confirmation can take days or … read more...

You Should Never Time The Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 09:45:42:000

Just recently, a report was released discussing why you should NOT try and time the market, but rather "just stay invested for the long-haul." To wit: "Periods of high volatility and occasional bouts of uncertainty are a part of the investing process. When markets correct, you can't cont… read more...

Multimedia Weekly Digest: Parsing The Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 09:30:56:000

Welcome to SA Multimedia Digest, where we combine videos and podcasts from across Seeking Alpha's contributor base into a single weekly article. Lots of economic data coming at us these last few days and our authors are here to help you make sense of it all. We begin with TD Wealth , who… read more...

FPA Crescent Fund Q4 2017 Commentary: Sovereign Debt Craziness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 18:18:37:000

By VW Staff Dear Shareholders: December capped a banner year for the S&P 500. For the first time ever, it delivered a positive return in every month, setting more than four dozen new records along the way. Our conservatively postured FPA Crescent Fund ("the Fund") returned 2.90% in… read more...

The Bears Finally Have Their Moment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 16:31:00:000

The event that the bears have been hoping for in the last two months is finally underway. Im referring to the latest increase in broad market volatility as measured by the VIX. The volatility increase this week has many traders hoping for a meaningful decline in the major averages; the… read more...

Davos, Dollars And Dead Men Walking

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 12:33:44:000

Read more … read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: 5 Reasons And What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 10:07:42:000

I've long believed that when stocks make a large move in either direction, there is usually a reason. A trigger. Or a driver to the action. And identifying the reasons behind the move has long been an obsession of mine. In other words, if the market makes a big move, I've got to know why. I … read more...

Exploring The Market Forces That Continue To Propel Asset Prices

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 08:30:34:000

There is no doubt that the performance of global indices in 2017 was in many ways remarkable. In fact, it was a year marked by a broad-based record-setting global rally across a surprisingly wide range of assets. And all this transpired in the face of heightened geopolitical tensions, increase… read more...

Is A 20% 1998-Like Plunge Coming In Stocks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 06:33:43:000

FACTS INSTEAD OF FEAR When investors see red covering their screens, it can understandably be unnerving. Since many are comparing the recent move in stocks ( SPY ) to the late 1990s (don't include us on that list), a fair question might be: After moving up rapidly in 1998, the S&P… read more...

Too Much Bubble-Love, Likely To Bring Regret

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 05:25:42:000

By Pater Tenebrarum Unprecedented Extremes in Overbought Readings Readers may recall our recent articles on the blow-off move in the stock market, entitled Punch-Drunk Investors and Extinct Bears (see Part 1 & Part 2 for the details). Bears remained firmly extinct as of last … read more...

U.S. Recession Risk Minimal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 05:05:19:000

The risk of a national recession beginning in the United States anytime in the next year, or specifically between 30 January 2018 and 30 January 2019, is slightly over 0.5%. That value is about a tenth of a percentage point higher than our previous report on the topic about a month and a hal… read more...

The Valuation Cycle Strikes Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 04:17:05:000

In the final stages of every market cycle, asset classes that have gone up on excess liquidity, leverage and speculative fervor come down together all around the world. As screens of red in global financial markets attest this week, historical correlations remain alive and well today; probably… read more...

Consumer Confidence Improved In January

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-31 04:13:05:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through January 18. The headline number of 125.4 was an increase from the final reading of 123.1 for December, an upward revision from 122.1. Today's number was above… read more...

An Upside U.S. Growth Surprise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 16:59:29:000

Key points New fiscal stimulus should provide a boost to U.S. growth that bodes well for the global expansion and for investing in risk assets. Global equity inflows broke records last week and U.S. stock indexes hit new highs. The U.S. dollar hit three-year lows versus the euro. Chang… read more...

Extreme Readings From The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 16:54:57:000

"I was dreamin' when I wrote this, so sue me if I go too fast, But life is just a party and parties weren't meant to last. War is all around us, my mind says prepare to fight, So if I gotta die I'm gonna listen to my body tonight. Yeah hey, they say two thousand zero zero party over, oo… read more...

We're On Pace For The Best January In Over 30 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 16:53:04:000

Through last Friday, the Dow Industrials are up 7.68% in the first four weeks of January and the S&P is up 7.45%, on pace for the best January in over 30 years, since 1987. The stock market certainly likes the effects of the new tax law, the lower dollar (boosting trade), and the fact that… read more...

The Real Melt-Up Hasn't Even Started Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 15:06:51:000

There has been an increasing tendency among participants of late to use the term "melt-up" to describe the stock market's recent gains. "Melt-up" is admittedly a nebulous term in that there is no universal acknowledgement as to how exactly it should be defined. Most observers would agree, thou… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Update (January) Based On Leading Regional Surveys

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 13:56:10:000

In this article, I am doing things a little bit different. I uploaded a presentation including all major regional surveys. The presentation contains both an explanation of the usefulness of leading regional manufacturing surveys and an overview of the most important segments. Please le… read more...

The Essential Equity Instrument

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 13:44:01:000

I been tryin to get down to the heart of the matter - Don Henley The previous article proposed a collection of instruments, each designed to anchor high-volume markets one each for the common stock market, the short-term commercial debt market, the dollar, energy… read more...

Technically Speaking: Bollinger Bands And Reversions To The Mean

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 13:25:28:000

Last week, we started into an exploration of various technical indicators with "What Exactly Is RSI." This week, I want to continue our exploration into the signals that we most often discuss in our "Technically Speaking" posts and in our weekly Real Investment Reports. As I wrote,… read more...

Why The Stock Market Will Head Even Higher

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 12:27:44:000

It seems like everyone has been talking about "sky high valuations" on stocks for some time now. Back in 2014, investors fretted over the Shiller P/E multiple hitting 26 (versus 16.5 long-term average). In 2015, some pointed to the US stock market to GDP ratio hitting 130% as a dire warnin… read more...

Globalization: Keynote Speech In Luxembourg

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 12:01:56:000

I had the privilege of delivering the keynote address at the 6th Annual Cross-Border Distribution Conference, sponsored by Deloitte and Elvinger Hoss, and supported by the Financial Times Live, in Luxembourg. What follows is the gist of my remarks, not a verbatim duplication of the address. … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Two Days In A Row. Is That Even Legal?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 11:37:57:000

Market Intro CNBC: 11:13 AM EST Whatever it is that is causing equity volatility ( VXX , TVIX , UVXY ) to pop, it is difficult to assign credit or blame to sovereign yields. This group appears to be catching its collective breath today: IB: 10-Yr Treasury Volatility US stocks (… read more...

The Fed Will Ignite The Next 'Financial Crisis'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 18:01:32:000

There seems to be a very large consensus the markets have entered into a "permanently high plateau," or an era in which price corrections in asset prices have been effectively eliminated through fiscal and monetary policy. Partnering with this fairy tale-like mindset is an overwhelming sen… read more...

January 29 To February 2: Key Economic Data Preview

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 17:09:59:000

Tuesday, January 30, 2018 Investors will be watching Eurozone's Q4 GDP data release whereas market expects marginal 0.1pp growth acceleration to 2.7% on a yearly level. This would form an average GDP growth of 2.3% in 2017 - in line with the ECB's latest projections. Chart 1: Eurozone GD… read more...

An Honest Look At Growth: Will We Get To 3%?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 16:39:16:000

GDP Growth In 2017 - How Good Was It? I'm writing on GDP again to give a sobering look at hard data and what actually transpired in the economy during 2017. There were many emotions and political opinions that have come into play in 2017 that have clouded what should be agreeable facts. … read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 16:10:05:000

Danielle was a guest on This Week in Money with Jim Goddard, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Satya Pradhuman: Hot Stocks Overheat Into Q2 Then Meaningful Reversal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 15:25:07:000

Satya Pradhuman, director of research at Cirrus Research, founded the firm in 2007 after more than 20 years on Wall Street in the equity research departments of E.F. Hutton, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch. Harlan Levy: What do the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product data -- only up… read more...

Investors Can't Ignore This Clear Sign Of A Stock Market Bubble

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 12:21:24:000

The other day I saw a comment on social media saying "index funds are a bubble". After a civil and thoughtful discussion I got some more details. Apparently this graph was cause for concern: ( source ) When you put it beside a chart of any major stock market index such as the S&P 500… read more...

Is The Economy Partying Like It's 1999?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 11:24:53:000

By New Deal Democrat Suddenly I have a lot to say about the economy. My sense is that we are on to a new phase after the 2015 shallow oil-patch centered recession and 2016-17 rebound. The data has a feel to it of a late cycle blowoff. Let's start with this morning's personal income and s… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: FOMO Has Taken Over - For Good Reason?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 10:47:37:000

As we enter the final week of what is turning out to be the best January since 1989, the macro drivers of the market remain the same. Cutting to the chase, investors continue to look forward to better days ahead on both the economic and earnings fronts. In market terms, this is called discou… read more...

Breakout Or Bubble: Could Markets Continue To Rise?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 10:38:40:000

First, I'd like to know what the rational valuation of the market has diverged from reality. That being said, history has shown that markets can act irrationally for an extended period of time. With SPY currently trading at all-time highs, the question over whether to be worried or not is … read more...

The Risk To The Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 09:01:05:000

The Risk to the Rally is the Rally itself. We came across a note from a research firm that we will not name. We highly respect the firm but the comment struck us like a thunderbolt. "Nothing can seemingly stop this market in 2018". That is a very bold statement with 11 months to go in the year… read more...

Spillover Risk: Cryptocurrencies May Pose A Very Real Threat To Stocks And The Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 12:42:49:000

Last month in " It's A Mad, Mad, Mad World ", I took a stab at explaining how and why cryptocurrencies represent a systemic risk. Over the last year, I've developed a pretty solid understanding of Bitcoin, blockchain, and the cryptosphere in general. But if you're a regular Heisenberg reader… read more...

You Might Be Drinking Yourself To Death On The Valuation Argument

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 12:08:57:000

"It's all relative" has become something of a rallying cry for those seeking to justify a decision to pour money into stocks. And let's not sugarcoat it: people are pouring money into stocks. As noted on Saturday , the "fear of missing out" mentality culminated in a laughable $33.2 billio… read more...

This 'Perfect' Indicator Just Flashed A Sell Signal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 11:57:59:000

I hesitate to even flag this because frankly, the idea that anyone possess an "indicator" that can reliably signal market turns is laughable, but several mainstream media outlets picked up on it on Friday, so I guess I'll regale you. BofAML's Michael Hartnett is a guy who people like to quot… read more...

Crescat: Trump Bubble Likely To Be Mother Of All GOP POTUS Ebullience Bubbles And Key Trigger In The Bursting Of China Bubble

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 08:49:36:000

By Jacob Wolinsky Crescat Capital Q4 2017 letter Dear Investors, "Believe me: We're in a bubble right now. And the only thing that looks good is the stock market - but if you raise interest rates even a little bit, that's going to come crashing down. We are in a big, fat, ugly … read more...

Crescat: Trump Bubble Likely To Be Mother Of All GOP POTUS Ebullience Bubbles And Key Trigger In The Bursting Of China Bubble

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 08:49:36:000

By Jacob Wolinsky Crescat Capital Q4 2017 letter Dear Investors, "Believe me: We're in a bubble right now. And the only thing that looks good is the stock market - but if you raise interest rates even a little bit, that's going to come crashing down. We are in a big, fat, ugly … read more...

Clearbridge Value Trust Q4 2017 Product Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 07:52:46:000

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Clearbridge Value Trust Q4 2017 Product Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 07:52:46:000

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The Davos Warnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 07:33:37:000

The Melt-up Continues Since the beginning of the year, the acceleration in the markets has continued unabated. As I showed yesterday , the acceleration in the S&P 500 has now gone parabolic. Of course, market melt-ups are symbolic of the final phases of "capitulation" as investors … read more...

The Davos Warnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 07:33:37:000

The Melt-up Continues Since the beginning of the year, the acceleration in the markets has continued unabated. As I showed yesterday , the acceleration in the S&P 500 has now gone parabolic. Of course, market melt-ups are symbolic of the final phases of "capitulation" as investors … read more...

Atlantic Investment Management 2017 Annual Letter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 07:06:24:000

Originally posted on Read more … read more...

Atlantic Investment Management 2017 Annual Letter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 07:06:24:000

Originally posted on Read more … read more...

Technical Review And Outlook - January 25, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 05:53:03:000

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Technical Review And Outlook - January 25, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 05:53:03:000

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Advance U.S. GDP Growth Estimate Confirms PMI Signal Of Slower Expansion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 05:16:52:000

The US economy grew less than expected in the closing quarter of 2017, according to fresh official data. However, in a sign of underlying strength, domestic demand growth was reported to have picked up. Moreover, the fourth quarter expansion rounded off the economy's best year since 2014, with… read more...

Advance U.S. GDP Growth Estimate Confirms PMI Signal Of Slower Expansion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 05:16:52:000

The US economy grew less than expected in the closing quarter of 2017, according to fresh official data. However, in a sign of underlying strength, domestic demand growth was reported to have picked up. Moreover, the fourth quarter expansion rounded off the economy's best year since 2014, with… read more...

Don't Get Used To This Melt-Up: Stocks Could Reverse At Any Moment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 04:15:20:000

Source: Businessinsider.com Dont Get Used To This Melt-up, Stocks Could Reverse At Any Moment Stocks continue their relentless rise; equities seem like they are unstoppable, bulletproof even, some would say. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) has gained 8% so far just this year. … read more...

Don't Get Used To This Melt-Up: Stocks Could Reverse At Any Moment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 04:15:20:000

Source: Businessinsider.com Dont Get Used To This Melt-up, Stocks Could Reverse At Any Moment Stocks continue their relentless rise; equities seem like they are unstoppable, bulletproof even, some would say. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) has gained 8% so far just this year. … read more...

The Universe At The Edge Of The Restaurant

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 02:30:15:000

We sit here. Whether it be the early morning coffee, or the late night Grand Marnier, we all sit here and ponder the markets' universe. Our chairs are comfortable enough, but the swirling mass of data, and projections, that surround us, is anything but that. "It's all going to Hell in a handba… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Stop The Debate Already... It's Not Euphoria, It's Simple Reality And It Should Be Happening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 13:47:41:000

Once you take the cat out of the bag, you can't cram it back in. .. Jen Calonita When I assembled my views for what could develop for the stock market in 2018, I ended with the thought that not many are considering these days. This economic recovery and the as… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Stop The Debate Already... It's Not Euphoria, It's Simple Reality And It Should Be Happening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 13:47:41:000

Once you take the cat out of the bag, you can't cram it back in. .. Jen Calonita When I assembled my views for what could develop for the stock market in 2018, I ended with the thought that not many are considering these days. This economic recovery and the as… read more...

Fun With S&P 500 Snakes And Ladders

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 11:57:09:000

Investment sales firms like to point to multi-decade charts of smooth upward-sloping return lines as a way to forecast compound returns ad infinitum. Except, I don't have a time horizon of infinity, and neither do you. In real life, credit driven contraction cycles and the math of loss are rec… read more...

Fun With S&P 500 Snakes And Ladders

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 11:57:09:000

Investment sales firms like to point to multi-decade charts of smooth upward-sloping return lines as a way to forecast compound returns ad infinitum. Except, I don't have a time horizon of infinity, and neither do you. In real life, credit driven contraction cycles and the math of loss are rec… read more...

Still Far Short Of 3%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 11:35:23:000

If it seems like we've been here before, it's because we've never left. On January 30, 2015, the BEA reported a disappointing headline GDP for Q4 2014 following what was truly a blowout quarter the one before. It was that latter one which had many if not most people thinking the end of the mal… read more...

December Durable Goods

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 11:26:17:000

Durable and capital goods orders and shipments all increased in December by growth rates consistent with those registered in the months leading up to the big storms Harvey and Irma. We continue to find evidence that accelerated growth in October and November was nothing more than the anticipat… read more...

Records Were Made To Be Broken

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 11:21:25:000

First of all, we want to thank our clients for the privilege of managing their assets and we wish all of you a healthy and prosperous 2018! They say records are made to be broken and, so far, the US economy is on track to do just that. The current economic expansion is now the third longes… read more...

Technically Speaking: The Transports Break Their Uptrend; Mid And Small Caps Are Weakening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 06:36:15:000

Any economist worth their inflation-adjusted salt will tell you trade is a net benefit to any economy. The basic calculus is actually very simple: country A is better at producing product X than country B, allowing country A to improve its standard of living while also freeing up country B to … read more...

Hidden In New GDP Data: Good News For 2018 Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 06:21:56:000

By Mickey D. Levy Real final domestic demand - consumption plus fixed investment and government purchases not including inventory change and changes in exports and imports - advanced by an exceptionally strong 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the third fastest pace in this economic recov… read more...

Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 2.9% In December

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 05:19:48:000

By Jill Mislinski The Advance Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders released today gives us a first look at the latest durable goods numbers. Here is the Bureau's summary on new orders: New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $7.0 billion or… read more...

U.S. GDP Growth Trails Estimates In Q4 But 1-Year Trend Picks Up

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 04:08:27:000

Economists were looking for a 2.9% rise for GDP in today's fourth-quarter report, according to Econoday.com's consensus forecast. The actual number, the Bureau of Economic Analysis advised, was softer than expected, decelerating to 2.6% - the slowest since the weak 1.2% gain in 2017's Q1. Th… read more...

GDP Misses, Accelerating Growth Still Expected

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-27 03:37:42:000

GDP Misses, Market Surges The first estimate for fourth-quarter GDP missed by a wide margin but markets were unfazed. Not only that but also the major US indices moved up to set new all-time highs and not just any old move. The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DIA ) gained more tha… read more...

Trade, Dollar, Trump

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-26 16:19:05:000

"In the long run we are all dead" was John Maynard Keynes' famous criticism of economic models. The rest of the quote goes, "Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again." … read more...

Leading Components Of Q4 GDP Forecast Continued Growth In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-26 15:32:24:000

By New Deal Democrat This morning's release of Q4 2017 GDP was in line with estimates, rising 2.7% on a preliminary basis. As usual, my attention is focused less on where we *are* than where we *will be* in the months and quarters ahead. There are two leading components of the GDP report… read more...

Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP At 2.6%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-26 14:30:31:000

by Jill Mislinski The Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.6% (2.55% to two decimal places), a decrease over 3.2% for the Q3 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 3.0%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis ne… read more...

Technology Continues To Lead US Sectors As Healthcare Heats Up

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-26 14:13:37:000

Shares of technology stocks remain the trend leader, but healthcare's recent strength suggests a changing of the guard may be near based on a set of sector ETFs ranked by one-year return. Meanwhile, telecom is the only US sector nursing a loss for the year-over-year change, although real estat… read more...

The U.S. Economy Is In Good Shape; Leading Indicators Are Positive

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-26 14:02:53:000

The Conference Board released their latest leading and coincident indicators on Thursday. The former rose .6 and the latter were up 1.2. Rather than use their 10-indicator model, I prefer the Philadelphia Feds method that relies on state level 1-unit building permits and the 4-week mov… read more...

Miller On Bonds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-26 13:47:05:000

Famous investors Bill Miller of Miller Value Partners just published his latest quarterly letter and there are a number of notable opinions in there. Miller believes that if rates take the 10-year above 3% this will have stocks surge. He expects inflation to pick up. Bonds are very vulnerabl… read more...

It's Not The Price, It's The Value

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-26 08:18:31:000

"The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Phillip Fisher It sounds basic enough, doesn't it? It just seems like plain old common sense but then, of course, common sense is not all that common. I have seen it often enough. I … read more...

Uncharted Territory

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-26 04:07:47:000

By FS Staff Listen to this podcast on our site by clicking here or subscribe on iTunes here . We're living in unusual times, and trying to predict market movements is extremely difficult, which is why this time on the Big Picture, Jim Puplava discussed what's concerning him … read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 17K, Better Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-26 02:00:34:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending January 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by… read more...

Trader's Outlook For January 19, 2018: Volatility Finally Wakes Up In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-25 23:06:10:000

Weekly Market Review Earnings Summary Q4 earnings season is beginning to ramp up. With 53 companies (11%) of the S&P 500 having reported so far, below are the aggregate results relative to recent quarters. It is still very early in the season, but these results are very good. Read… read more...

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