John Hancock Investment Management LLC
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Shakespeare On Bonds
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 14:55:21:000
"I can get no remedy against this consumption of the purse: borrowing only lingers and lingers it out, but the disease is incurable." - Shakespeare, Henry IV, Part 2 In October, November, and December, the Fed was the villain, especially in December. Jerome Powell spoke and the markets g… read more...
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 3K
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 10:39:36:000
By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 … read more...
Weekly Edge: Investors Anticipate Fed Meeting As The Trade War Saga Continues
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 10:27:36:000
By Ansh Chaudhary As the June 28-29 G-20 summit in Japan moves closer, speculation continues to increase about whether Presidents Trump and Xi will meet there to discuss trade. According to Reuters , Trump does plan to meet with Xi, after which he will decide "whether to extend tariffs to… read more...
Charts Implying Economic Weakness - June 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 09:28:12:000
Please note: This is the latest in a series of articles, the last being " Charts Implying Economic Weakness - May 2019." U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site, there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially nota… read more...
One Trick Pony: The Fed Is Pushing On A String
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 09:24:16:000
Last week, I discussed the Fed's recent comments suggesting they might be closer to cutting rates and restarting "QE" than not. "In short, the proximity of interest rates to the ELB (Effective Lower Bound) has become the preeminent monetary policy challenge of our time, tainting all… read more...
The Coming Pension Crisis And Its Subsequent Fallout
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 08:44:41:000
Returning SBTV guest Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, warns about the under-funding in public and private pensions. Will there be pitchforks when pensioners realize there is no money available for their retirement? Discussed in this in… read more...
This Is One Of The Worst Risk/Reward Setups In History
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 08:18:48:000
One of the indicators I started tracking several years ago was what I call "The Buffett Yardstick." It plots the total value of the stock market against the overall size of the economy. As Warren wrote nearly 20 years ago, "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at … read more...
Value Of Direct U.S.-China Trade Continues To Shrink
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 06:26:28:000
The combined value of goods and services traded between the U.S. and China continued to shrink in April 2019, with the cumulative gap between the projection of how much that trade would be worth today, if not for the tariff war and where it actually is today now, having increased by $1 billion… read more...
No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - June 13, 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 06:04:09:000
The BCI at 255.9 is up from last week's downward revised 255.3 and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 78.1. However, the six-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 11.5 is below last week's downward revised 12.3. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signa… read more...
Daniel Griswold On The USMCA, Tariffs, And The U.S. Trade War
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 03:08:06:000
David Beckworth : Our guest today is Dan Griswold. Dan is a research fellow and co-director of the Trade and Immigration Project at the Mercatus Center. He is a nationally recognized expert on trade and immigration policy and is a previous guest on Macro Musings. Dan joins us today to get us… read more...
Why The Fed Is Not Likely To Save This Ailing Bull Market
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 14:49:53:000
Image Source Don't Bet On The Fed To Bail Out The Stock Market The S&P 500 and stocks, in general, have made a substantial rebound in recent days. In fact, the SPX had gained approximately 6.5% after bouncing off major support at 2,725 and topping out at 2,900 resistance. Source… read more...
July Rate Cut? Wait For The Fed's Complete Capitulation To Get Aggressive
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 13:18:24:000
Financial markets now anticipate that the Federal Reserve will begin ratcheting down rates from the 2.25%-2.50% range in July. Remarkably, the "de facto stimulus" associated with the Fed flip from rate raising to rate neutrality only lasted for six months. Reasonable criticism of the Fed's "… read more...
Reappearance Of 'Crash Phobia' Is Good News
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 10:35:53:000
There are many signs that astute investors look for to confirm that a bottom has been made after a market decline. One of the most important signs is the tell-tale increase in investor pessimism as measured by various sentiment polls. But an even more reliable indication that the market is pri… read more...
A Rate Cut Is Coming - Here's How To Know When
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 08:23:12:000
At this point, most market participants and media talking heads are fairly certain the next move from the FOMC is a rate cut rather than a rate hike. Now, that sounds like a silly comment but just a couple of months ago, some pundits were unconvinced a rate cut would be coming in 2019 and even… read more...
Why The Market Can Repeat The 2019 Rally
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 07:47:22:000
At the end of 2018, the market was in a downward trend caused by China-U.S. trade tensions, explicit global macro deterioration and excessive tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. This set the table for the S&P 500 Index to close in negative territory as investors sold their equity pos… read more...
Past Prescient Futures: Markets Anticipate Timing But Not Magnitude Of Fed Rate Moves
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 06:45:51:000
The recent broadening and deepening yield curve inversion when longer-term Treasury note yields fall below short-term ones - has stimulated a spate of research and commentary. One thought-provoking finding comes out of Scandinavia. Anders Svendsen, Chief Analyst at Nordea Group, found… read more...
Small Business Sentiment Surprises To The Upside
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 03:06:30:000
Small business sentiment saw a big upside surprise for the month of May. While economists were expecting the headline NFIB Small Business Sentiment Index to fall to 102.0 from last month's reading of 103.5, the actual reading went the other way, rising to 105. That makes it four straight month… read more...
The Unemployment Rate Has Been Left Even Lonelier
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 02:32:03:000
The unemployment rate has been maybe the loneliest of numbers. That didn't quite mean it was entirely alone. Of the major economic accounts, only the JOLTS series and only one part of that series suggested the big mainstream employment indicator was anywhere close to accurate. Job Openings ((J… read more...
Interest Rate Outlook: Fed Evaluating Risks To U.S. Economy
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 00:39:34:000
As U.S. Federal Reserve officials enter the communications blackout period ahead of the June 18-19 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, bond markets are pricing in a modest chance (roughly 12%) that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and a much higher (roughly… read more...
U.S. Growth Nowcast For Q2 Stabilizes At Modest Pace
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 22:57:41:000
Recent volatility in US economic indicators has trimmed the outlook for the upcoming second-quarter GDP report (due at the end of July), but the current estimates show a degree of stability after a period of downgrades. That's an encouraging sign, although with another month-plus of data re… read more...
World Markets Update
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 06:54:28:000
By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 10, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 15.69% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 15.01%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.78%. Coming in last is Toky… read more...
A Stock Market Crash Scenario
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 06:23:49:000
Herds get spooked and run. That's the crash scenario in a nutshell. We have all been trained by a decade of central bank saves to expect any stock market swoon will soon be reversed by central bank sweet talk and/or rate cuts. As a result of such ever-present central bank willingness to … read more...
What Gold, Treasuries And The Dollar Are Telling Us
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 05:41:40:000
"I really think that people never go wrong by telling the truth." - Sydney Pollack The economy continued to flash warning signals this week. JPMorgans global composite PMI reading slipped into contraction territory falling to a 7-year low in the process. Oil ( USO ) continues its d… read more...
Daily State Of The Markets: Things Can Change Quickly These Days
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 05:17:23:000
Originally published June 10 What a difference a week can make in this game, right? Last week at this time, the market was reacting in a rather hysterical fashion, of course, to news that the President was planning to use punitive tariffs in his quest to strike a deal on immigration with M… read more...
Technically Speaking: The 'Sellable Rally' Chart Review
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 04:23:25:000
Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a " sellable rally " following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit : "This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term 'sellable' rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The markets o… read more...
Sentiment Speaks: Are You A Lemming?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 04:00:19:000
There are many reasons people give as to why the markets move up or down. Yet, the great majority of the reasons are quite superficial and fleeting. I think Bernard Baruch put it best when he said: All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by crowd psychology. Without d… read more...
Weekly Market Notes - June 10, 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 02:15:00:000
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Here Is Why The Fed's Rate Cuts Won't Have The Desired Effect
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 17:56:22:000
On Tuesday, the Fed hinted that it was ready to take action if the US economy started showing signs of weakness. The market cheered and rallied, and we are now only 2% away from all-time highs (as of the time of writing this article). The stock market now expects at least one rate cut, while t… read more...
The Recent Bond Yield And SPX Declines (And Now Bitcoin) Tend To Recur Year After Year
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 14:28:15:000
There has been multiple explanations and rationalizations of the very recent and sharp decline in bond yields. The most prominently published rationalization was the action taken by billionaire and former hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller's piling into US Treasuries as the US trade war wit… read more...
Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Keep Your Eye On The Ball
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 13:07:37:000
Construction Spending Construction spending was flat in April, while March saw a 1% upward revision to the previously reported 0.9% decline, leading to an increase of 0.1%. Yet the trend, as can be seen below, is discouraging. Overall, spending is down 1.2% on a year-over-year basis. Resid… read more...
Trade Wars Likely To Change The Fed's Interest-Rate Game Plan
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 06:42:55:000
By Eric Winograd The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven't yet taken a major downward turn, and there'… read more...
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 05:40:50:000
Healthy markets don't rally 2% in one day as they did on Tuesday. This week, the market was faced with President Trump launching trade wars against Mexico and India while the US GDP is slowing, Europe's de facto economic leader Germany's manufacturing is collapsing, global trade bell weather S… read more...
Market Commentary - June 6, 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 04:45:00:000
Read more … read more...
The Powell Put
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 04:25:16:000
By Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income Was last week's bounce for risk assets a mere taste of what's to come if the Fed cuts rates this year? One of my research colleagues came into the office looking a little starstruck last week. He'd just snapped a photo of Federal Re… read more...
Weekly Commentary: Horde Of Jumbo Bazookas
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 03:41:08:000
"Stocks Eye Best Week of 2019 on 'Powell Put' Bets," read the Friday Bloomberg headline. By the close of Friday trading, the S&P 500 had posted a gain of 4.4% ("best week since November"). Also from Bloomberg: "Fed Watchers Say a July Rate Cut Is In Play, June Not Likely." Markets now pri… read more...
Still Think This Is About Trade Wars?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 03:17:52:000
There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact. Conan Doyle Jobs data, put simply, was ugly. Tuning in to watch the news before the announcement, several analysts and economists were asked for their predictions. Even the most bearish prognosticator got it … read more...
Sector ETF Week In Review For June 3-7
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 01:39:05:000
Let's start with the long-term view: For most of the spring rally, tech and consumer discretionary led the pack. Now, consumer staples - Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) - holds the No. 1 spot. Its quarterly performance is very near that of the techs; the former is up 9.82 while… read more...
Is The 'Sellable Rally' Done?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 00:39:22:000
Is The Sellable Rally Done? In last week's missive, I noted the oversold condition of the market and the likelihood of a bounce: "This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term 'sellable' rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The marke… read more...
Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Investors Bank On The Fed?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 06:58:59:000
The economic calendar is important, featuring inflation data, two elements of the NBER "big four," consumer confidence, and the JOLTS report. Those needing a fix of FedSpeak are out of luck since it is the quiet period for them. The data all point to an intersection between economic strength a… read more...
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 04:26:55:000
Torsten Slok at DB updates this lovely graph on occasion. Here's what it means. Fed fund futures are essentially bets on where the federal funds rate will be at various points in the future. Thus, you can read from the dashed lines the market's guess about where the federal funds rate will go … read more...
Should Markets Heed Recession Warnings?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 02:46:36:000
By Edward Perks, E xecutive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions Amid a renewed US-China trade spat and additional tariff tensions between the United States and Mexico, investor concerns about a possible recession have heightened, accord… read more...
Why The Growth Premium Is Likely To Stay
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 02:34:59:000
Russ discusses why growth is likely to continue to outperform value for a while. The value drought persists. Large cap growth, measured by the Russell 1000 Growth Index, is beating value, measured by the Russell 1000 Value Index, by approximately 450 basis points (bps, or 4.5% points) year… read more...
What's Behind The Historic Valuation Gap In Equities?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 02:06:35:000
By Carmel Corbett Wellso As sectors ranging from manufacturing to financials experience disruption, the valuation gap between growth and value stocks continues to widen. Director of Research Carmel Wellso explains why careful stock selection is important at this stage of the cycle. … read more...
Sorry Permabulls, It's Not Different This Time - Got Gold?
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 01:46:22:000
An inverted yield curve has historically been the most accurate indicator of an impending or concurrent recession. The inversion during late 2006 and most of 2007 is a good example. Studies have shown that curve inversions precede a recession anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. I would argue th… read more...
Recession Anxieties, June 2019
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 13:55:23:000
Editor's note: This article was originally published on June 7, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . Different forward looking models show increasing likelihood of a recession. Most recent readings of key series highlighted by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) suggest a peak, altho… read more...
Welcome To The Decade Of Slow Economic Growth
via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 12:52:29:000
The world economy has grown tremendously in the last 100 years driven by multiple factors such as population growth, technological advancements and rapid urbanization, not to mention a healthy dose of inflation (with exceptions) throughout the time. We expect the global economic growth to slow… read more...
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