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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETF

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Summary

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the Russell 2000® Index, which measures the performance of the small-capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market. The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in securities of the underlying index and in depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index. It may invest the remainder of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents, as well as in securities not included in the underlying index, but which the advisor believes will help the fund track the underlying index.

Market Cap: 44.3 Billion

Primary Exchange: NYSE Arca

Website: http://www.ishares.com

Shares Outstanding: 279 Million

Float: 279 Million

Dividend: 1.9237 (1.21%)

Beta: 1.259316

Sector:

Industry:

Short Interest (Jan 15, 2013): 145 Million

Ethical Flags

Gambling Gun

Longest drawdown: 413 trading days

From: 2018-08-31 To: 2019-09-13

Lowest Point:

Shakespeare On Bonds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 14:55:21:000

"I can get no remedy against this consumption of the purse: borrowing only lingers and lingers it out, but the disease is incurable." - Shakespeare, Henry IV, Part 2 In October, November, and December, the Fed was the villain, especially in December. Jerome Powell spoke and the markets g… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 3K

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 10:39:36:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 … read more...

Weekly Edge: Investors Anticipate Fed Meeting As The Trade War Saga Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 10:27:36:000

By Ansh Chaudhary As the June 28-29 G-20 summit in Japan moves closer, speculation continues to increase about whether Presidents Trump and Xi will meet there to discuss trade. According to Reuters , Trump does plan to meet with Xi, after which he will decide "whether to extend tariffs to… read more...

Charts Implying Economic Weakness - June 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 09:28:12:000

Please note: This is the latest in a series of articles, the last being " Charts Implying Economic Weakness - May 2019." U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site, there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially nota… read more...

One Trick Pony: The Fed Is Pushing On A String

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 09:24:16:000

Last week, I discussed the Fed's recent comments suggesting they might be closer to cutting rates and restarting "QE" than not. "In short, the proximity of interest rates to the ELB (Effective Lower Bound) has become the preeminent monetary policy challenge of our time, tainting all… read more...

The Coming Pension Crisis And Its Subsequent Fallout

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 08:44:41:000

Returning SBTV guest Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, warns about the under-funding in public and private pensions. Will there be pitchforks when pensioners realize there is no money available for their retirement? Discussed in this in… read more...

This Is One Of The Worst Risk/Reward Setups In History

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 08:18:48:000

One of the indicators I started tracking several years ago was what I call "The Buffett Yardstick." It plots the total value of the stock market against the overall size of the economy. As Warren wrote nearly 20 years ago, "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at … read more...

Value Of Direct U.S.-China Trade Continues To Shrink

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 06:26:28:000

The combined value of goods and services traded between the U.S. and China continued to shrink in April 2019, with the cumulative gap between the projection of how much that trade would be worth today, if not for the tariff war and where it actually is today now, having increased by $1 billion… read more...

Equity CEFs: The Best Funds Under President Trump

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 06:04:38:000

I certainly did not expect Donald Trump to become the 45th President of the United States, but when it comes to picking equity CEFs, my crystal ball has been much clearer. So, let's go back roughly 2 1/2 years since Donald Trump took office in early 2017 and see which equity CEFs have perfor… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - June 13, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 06:04:09:000

The BCI at 255.9 is up from last week's downward revised 255.3 and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 78.1. However, the six-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 11.5 is below last week's downward revised 12.3. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signa… read more...

Why The Fed Is Not Likely To Save This Ailing Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 14:49:53:000

Image Source Don't Bet On The Fed To Bail Out The Stock Market The S&P 500 and stocks, in general, have made a substantial rebound in recent days. In fact, the SPX had gained approximately 6.5% after bouncing off major support at 2,725 and topping out at 2,900 resistance. Source… read more...

July Rate Cut? Wait For The Fed's Complete Capitulation To Get Aggressive

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 13:18:24:000

Financial markets now anticipate that the Federal Reserve will begin ratcheting down rates from the 2.25%-2.50% range in July. Remarkably, the "de facto stimulus" associated with the Fed flip from rate raising to rate neutrality only lasted for six months. Reasonable criticism of the Fed's "… read more...

Technically Speaking For June 12: The Long-Term Charts Look Like They're Topping

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 12:47:05:000

CEO confidence is down for the fifth consecutive month (emphasis added): Overall economic confidence of the CEOs of some of the country's top companies has dipped another leg lower, according to the latest survey by the Business Roundtable of 127 chief executives. This barometer of CEO… read more...

Reappearance Of 'Crash Phobia' Is Good News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 10:35:53:000

There are many signs that astute investors look for to confirm that a bottom has been made after a market decline. One of the most important signs is the tell-tale increase in investor pessimism as measured by various sentiment polls. But an even more reliable indication that the market is pri… read more...

A Rate Cut Is Coming - Here's How To Know When

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 08:23:12:000

At this point, most market participants and media talking heads are fairly certain the next move from the FOMC is a rate cut rather than a rate hike. Now, that sounds like a silly comment but just a couple of months ago, some pundits were unconvinced a rate cut would be coming in 2019 and even… read more...

Why The Market Can Repeat The 2019 Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 07:47:22:000

At the end of 2018, the market was in a downward trend caused by China-U.S. trade tensions, explicit global macro deterioration and excessive tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. This set the table for the S&P 500 Index to close in negative territory as investors sold their equity pos… read more...

Past Prescient Futures: Markets Anticipate Timing But Not Magnitude Of Fed Rate Moves

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 06:45:51:000

The recent broadening and deepening yield curve inversion when longer-term Treasury note yields fall below short-term ones - has stimulated a spate of research and commentary. One thought-provoking finding comes out of Scandinavia. Anders Svendsen, Chief Analyst at Nordea Group, found… read more...

3 Charts I Think I'm Thinking About

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 04:32:21:000

1. The USA is bankrupt, part 3,478. It's been at least 1 or 2 blog posts since I talked about the USA being bankrupt so I would be remiss if I didn't remind you that the USA is actually not bankrupt at all . This chart comes to us courtesy of Mary Meeker's annual internet report . Now,… read more...

Anxiety Ticks Up, Risks Pared

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 03:26:02:000

Overview The S&P 500 snapped a five-day advance yesterday and set the heavier tone for equities today. Continued protests in Hong Kong were not shrugged off as they have been in the last couple of sessions. The Hang Seng's nearly 1.9% decline was the largest in a month and led the region… read more...

Small Business Sentiment Surprises To The Upside

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 03:06:30:000

Small business sentiment saw a big upside surprise for the month of May. While economists were expecting the headline NFIB Small Business Sentiment Index to fall to 102.0 from last month's reading of 103.5, the actual reading went the other way, rising to 105. That makes it four straight month… read more...

Technically Speaking For June 11: The Rally Is Sputtering

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 12:43:20:000

Anti-trust is making a comeback. From today's NY Times (emphasis added): The Justice Department is examining complaints against Google and Apple, while the F.T.C. will handle antitrust issues related to Facebook and Amazon. Last week, the House Judiciary subcommittee on antitrust also … read more...

The Easy VIX: VIX Futures Patterns And A Risk-Responsive Portfolio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 08:52:39:000

In my last article, linked here , I explained how using a risk-avoidance algorithm derived from the VIX futures curve produced a 15.7% return for a basket of broadly diversified ETFs compared to a 7.3% return for a buy-and-hold strategy. I also noted that the risk avoidance aspect was critica… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 06:54:28:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 10, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 15.69% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 15.01%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.78%. Coming in last is Toky… read more...

A Stock Market Crash Scenario

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 06:23:49:000

Herds get spooked and run. That's the crash scenario in a nutshell. We have all been trained by a decade of central bank saves to expect any stock market swoon will soon be reversed by central bank sweet talk and/or rate cuts. As a result of such ever-present central bank willingness to … read more...

What Gold, Treasuries And The Dollar Are Telling Us

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 05:41:40:000

"I really think that people never go wrong by telling the truth." - Sydney Pollack The economy continued to flash warning signals this week. JPMorgans global composite PMI reading slipped into contraction territory falling to a 7-year low in the process. Oil ( USO ) continues its d… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Things Can Change Quickly These Days

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 05:17:23:000

Originally published June 10 What a difference a week can make in this game, right? Last week at this time, the market was reacting in a rather hysterical fashion, of course, to news that the President was planning to use punitive tariffs in his quest to strike a deal on immigration with M… read more...

Technically Speaking: The 'Sellable Rally' Chart Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 04:23:25:000

Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a " sellable rally " following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit : "This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term 'sellable' rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The markets o… read more...

A Great, Free Way To Significantly Boost Your Portfolio Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 04:01:48:000

(Source: imgflip ) While I may be most known for my undervalued dividend blue-chip stock recommendations, over 5.5 years as a professional analyst/investment writer (and 23 years of investing experience), I've learned that there is far more to great portfolio returns than just knowing w… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Are You A Lemming?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 04:00:19:000

There are many reasons people give as to why the markets move up or down. Yet, the great majority of the reasons are quite superficial and fleeting. I think Bernard Baruch put it best when he said: All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by crowd psychology. Without d… read more...

Market Update: Volatility And Fund Flows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 03:45:52:000

By OpenMarkets Some of the current volatility is driven by money that has to be put to work. Jack Bouroudjian explains how fund flows are affecting the market, and covers why we should continue to monitor the U.S. Read more … read more...

The Recent Bond Yield And SPX Declines (And Now Bitcoin) Tend To Recur Year After Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 14:28:15:000

There has been multiple explanations and rationalizations of the very recent and sharp decline in bond yields. The most prominently published rationalization was the action taken by billionaire and former hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller's piling into US Treasuries as the US trade war wit… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Keep Your Eye On The Ball

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 13:07:37:000

Construction Spending Construction spending was flat in April, while March saw a 1% upward revision to the previously reported 0.9% decline, leading to an increase of 0.1%. Yet the trend, as can be seen below, is discouraging. Overall, spending is down 1.2% on a year-over-year basis. Resid… read more...

Technically Speaking For June 10

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 12:46:06:000

Brexit is hurting the UK economy. The Office of National Statistics released the latest GDP report today, which reported a 0.3% increase in the latest three month period. However, growth contracted 0.1% in March and 0.4% in April, the most recent months for which data is available. A sharp… read more...

Trade Wars Likely To Change The Fed's Interest-Rate Game Plan

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 06:42:55:000

By Eric Winograd The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven't yet taken a major downward turn, and there'… read more...

Roller Coaster

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 05:40:50:000

Healthy markets don't rally 2% in one day as they did on Tuesday. This week, the market was faced with President Trump launching trade wars against Mexico and India while the US GDP is slowing, Europe's de facto economic leader Germany's manufacturing is collapsing, global trade bell weather S… read more...

Market Commentary - June 6, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 04:45:00:000

Read more … read more...

Seems All About The Fed At The Moment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 04:38:28:000

Since the Federal Reserve began raising the Fed Funds rate in December 2015, there have been nine rate increases. Now that the Fed is in a pause mode, strategists and investors have turned their focus on rate cuts. It seems as though strategists believe the equity market and economy cannot mov… read more...

The Powell Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 04:25:16:000

By Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income Was last week's bounce for risk assets a mere taste of what's to come if the Fed cuts rates this year? One of my research colleagues came into the office looking a little starstruck last week. He'd just snapped a photo of Federal Re… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Horde Of Jumbo Bazookas

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 03:41:08:000

"Stocks Eye Best Week of 2019 on 'Powell Put' Bets," read the Friday Bloomberg headline. By the close of Friday trading, the S&P 500 had posted a gain of 4.4% ("best week since November"). Also from Bloomberg: "Fed Watchers Say a July Rate Cut Is In Play, June Not Likely." Markets now pri… read more...

Still Think This Is About Trade Wars?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 03:17:52:000

There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact. Conan Doyle Jobs data, put simply, was ugly. Tuning in to watch the news before the announcement, several analysts and economists were asked for their predictions. Even the most bearish prognosticator got it … read more...

The Latest Jobs Report May Be A Bullish Sign For Bonds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 11:16:40:000

It is somewhat hard to believe that it is once again the first Friday of the month. This means that it is time for yet another jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In this case, the report was rather disappointing as job creation numbers greatly missed the expectations of analyst… read more...

The Technicals Among The 5 Equity ETFs Are Mixed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 11:11:27:000

The bulls gained control last week on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates up to three times in 2019. Keep in mind that it's unlikely that it will cut rates while still tightening as it unwinds its balance sheet. Quantitative tightening is scheduled to end in October, so cut… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Investors Bank On The Fed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 06:58:59:000

The economic calendar is important, featuring inflation data, two elements of the NBER "big four," consumer confidence, and the JOLTS report. Those needing a fix of FedSpeak are out of luck since it is the quiet period for them. The data all point to an intersection between economic strength a… read more...

Futures Forecasts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 04:26:55:000

Torsten Slok at DB updates this lovely graph on occasion. Here's what it means. Fed fund futures are essentially bets on where the federal funds rate will be at various points in the future. Thus, you can read from the dashed lines the market's guess about where the federal funds rate will go … read more...

Should Markets Heed Recession Warnings?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 02:46:36:000

By Edward Perks, E xecutive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions Amid a renewed US-China trade spat and additional tariff tensions between the United States and Mexico, investor concerns about a possible recession have heightened, accord… read more...

What's Behind The Historic Valuation Gap In Equities?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 02:06:35:000

By Carmel Corbett Wellso As sectors ranging from manufacturing to financials experience disruption, the valuation gap between growth and value stocks continues to widen. Director of Research Carmel Wellso explains why careful stock selection is important at this stage of the cycle. … read more...

Sorry Permabulls, It's Not Different This Time - Got Gold?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 01:46:22:000

An inverted yield curve has historically been the most accurate indicator of an impending or concurrent recession. The inversion during late 2006 and most of 2007 is a good example. Studies have shown that curve inversions precede a recession anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. I would argue th… read more...

Recession Anxieties, June 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 13:55:23:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on June 7, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . Different forward looking models show increasing likelihood of a recession. Most recent readings of key series highlighted by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) suggest a peak, altho… read more...

Welcome To The Decade Of Slow Economic Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 12:52:29:000

The world economy has grown tremendously in the last 100 years driven by multiple factors such as population growth, technological advancements and rapid urbanization, not to mention a healthy dose of inflation (with exceptions) throughout the time. We expect the global economic growth to slow… read more...

May Employment Update: Growth Prospects Under Watch; S&P Fairly Valued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 05:16:28:000

Economic Composite I updated my economic composite to reflect the release of the U.S. Labor Department's employment report on June 7. The report showed a rise in nonfarm employment of 75,000 in May, a considerable miss off the consensus estimate of 175,000. Preliminary numbers for the previo… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: May Nonfarm Employment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 04:54:47:000

By Jill Mislinski Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which it bases its decisions. This committee statement is about as close as it gets to identifying its method. T… read more...

Payrolls: Rate Cuts Not Of Their Choice

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 04:07:47:000

It's never just one payroll report. The month-to-month changes in the Establishment Survey barely qualify as statistically significant, let alone meaningful. What that means is one good monthly headline is nothing to get excited about, just as one bad month shouldn't get anyone too worked up. … read more...

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Strange Things Happening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 03:02:00:000

It was another strange week from an economic point of view. It's hard to quantify the economic impacts of tariffs on Mexico - or the banning of cruise ships from Cuba. I know some like to throw dollar signs at each event - but the economy has symbiotic relationships where events can have imp… read more...

Does The Latest U.S. Jobs Report Make A Rate Cut More Likely?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 02:51:43:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Quantitative Investment Strategist Abraham Robison, and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed May's U.S. employment report, the latest headlines around trade, and the recent rally in equity markets. Lackluster May job… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: The Cure For High Interest Rates Is - High Interest Rates! (And Chaotic Tariff Policy)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 02:20:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark… read more...

Soft Jobs Report Suggests Caution, Not Panic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 00:29:03:000

By Robert Hughes U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 75,000 jobs in May, below the consensus expectation of 185,000. The prior two months were revised downward by a combined 75,000, putting the April gain at 224,000 and the March increase at 153,000. Excluding the government sector, private payrol… read more...

Are Investors Being Buffaloed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 20:38:26:000

By Jerry Wagner Under a picture like the one above, the internet headline asked, "Is this a bison or a buffalo?" Having once foolishly been driven in a Jeep in among a herd of the largest North American animal (with males averaging over a ton in weight), I had to read the answer. I wasn'… read more...

Tech Cold War, IPOs And Unicorns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 16:05:25:000

Has the tech cold war between U.S. and China begun? What could this mean for the global tech landscape? And, does this year's IPO wave signal trouble for markets? Kim Parlee talks with Bill Priest, CEO, and Co-CIO of Epoch Investment Read more … read more...

Industrial Production Has Peaked

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 14:53:09:000

Source: Forbes U.S. industrial production for the month of April fell 0.5 percent versus March: US industrial output unexpectedly fell for the third time in the last four months, data released on Wednesday showed, as manufacturing softened and utilities output declined amid warmer wea… read more...

May Jobs Report Raises Cautions, Not Fears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 13:40:17:000

New York (June 7th) - The May jobs report printed at an abysmal 75,000 new jobs. The consensus estimate had been 185,000. Revisions for March (-36,000) and April (-39,000) netted 75,000 fewer jobs. The revisions resulted in average three months job creation of 151,000 jobs and six mont… read more...

The Rally Is A Head-Fake: Technically Speaking For June 3-7

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 12:40:38:000

China/Japan/Asia/Australia Australia Manufacturing PMI at 51 Retail sales decrease .1% GDP increases .4% in March quarter AIG services index increased to 52.5% AIG construction at 40.4 South Korea Manufacturing PMI at 48.4 Japan Japan Manufact… read more...

U.S. Labor Market Growth Was Surprisingly Weak In May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 10:54:47:000

US companies added just 90,000 workers in May, according to today's payrolls report from the Labor Department. The soft gain surprised analysts and marks a hefty slowdown from April's solid 205,000 increase. The deceleration in growth is worrisome, although mostly because it reflects uncerta… read more...

Weak May Jobs Report Could Force The Fed's Hand

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 10:49:52:000

Source: Financial Times The May jobs report showed 75,000 new jobs were added, less than the 185,000 economists were expecting, and well below the 224,000 jobs added in April: The US economy added just 75,000 jobs in May, a sharp drop-off from a month earlier, in the latest sign the F… read more...

We Are Bonding

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 09:11:25:000

There it sits. The 800-pound Gorilla in the room. We stare at it. It stares at us. Every little move it makes, every little breath it takes, we are watching him. There is nothing, as in nothing, more important to both the bond and equity markets than this fellow. Not China, not the tariffs, no… read more...

Crucial U.S. Service Sector Growth Sends Conflicting Signals

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 07:27:44:000

The "yeah but" shows up again. The services sector, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy - the biggest segments being finance and insurance, healthcare, professional services such as architects, engineers, and lawyers, and information services such as telecom and data processing - … read more...

The Fed, QE, And Why Rates Are Going To Zero

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 06:49:08:000

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his opening remarks at a monetary policy conference in Chicago, raised concerns about the rising trade tensions in the U.S., "We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved. As always, we will act as appropriate to sustain th… read more...

The Unemployment Rate Does Not Signal A Recession: Update - June 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 06:15:45:000

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the May 2019 rate of 3…. read more...

Technically Speaking For June 6

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 13:01:55:000

Oil officially entered a bear market yesterday: Prices have fallen from a high of 66.60 to 51.68 - a decline of 22.4%. The chart has turned bearish very quickly. Prices are now below all the EMAs, which will pull them lower. The shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs while momentum is clearly… read more...

JPMorgan's Global PMI - Growth Is Slowing, Not Stopping

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 10:13:33:000

A PMI Is A Guide To Future Economic Activity As investors we obviously want to have a window onto the future. If we know what's going to happen then we can position ourselves to benefit from it. Thus the value of indicators like a purchasing managers index. This is not, as with GDP, a readin… read more...

New U.S.-Mexico Tariffs Would Add To Economic Costs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 10:10:37:000

President Donald Trump's announcement late last week that the U.S. would impose tariffs on all Mexican goods starting on 10 June to "address the emergency at the southern border" was disruptive, but not necessarily surprising. After all, the President shut down the government earlier this ye… read more...

Trade War: The Second Front

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 10:10:26:000

Originally published on June 4, 2019 By Stephen H. Dover, CFA, Executive Vice President, Head of Equities After ratcheting up trade tensions with China, the Trump administration has threatened tariffs on Mexico over illegal US border crossings. Our Head of Equities, Stephen Dover, expl… read more...

The Government Should Fix LIBOR

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 09:47:06:000

Clearly, the regulators have not backed off from their hard-line position that LIBOR must go. I misjudged the situation, earlier, here . On the contrary, regulatory positions have hardened as the Bank of England explained in a letter sent to large bank Chief Executives. Accord… read more...

Auto Sales Rebound In May While Factory Orders Fell In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 07:01:04:000

By Robert Hughes Sales of light vehicles totaled 17.3 million at an annual rate in May, up from a 16.3 million pace in April (see chart). The pace of sales in May remains within the 16 to 18 million-unit range that we have seen for much of the past two decades. Unit vehicle sales fell … read more...

Walking Away In May Worked - June Depends On Developments

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 06:56:00:000

The old market adage, Sell in May and go away would have worked for you this year. The SPDR S&P 500 ( SPY ) declined by 6.3% through the month of May. So how does June shape up then? Whether the market recovers its losses or completely collapses will have a lot to do with t… read more...

The Fed Can't Help Housing Or Autos At This Point

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 06:52:48:000

Hopes are running high that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will support the auto and housing sectors, two parts of the economy that are sensitive to borrowing costs. The risk, though, is rising that any relief won't come until after these critical leaders of the current … read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - June 6, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 06:31:25:000

The BCI at 255.5 is down from last week's 256.6 and is below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 75.8. Also, the six-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 12.4 is below last week's 13.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop belo… read more...

Is The Bond Market Predicting Recession?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 06:04:56:000

Sorry for the radio silence here. Real work got in the way of blogging about work. A lot of people seem to think that the bond market is forecasting a recession now that yields are declining again and the curve has completely flattened. Is a recession coming? Do you need to jump in your bu… read more...

'Act Accordingly'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 13:20:44:000

Jerome Powell didn't pull a Jim Bullard on Tuesday. That is, Powell didn't explicitly say a rate cut "may be warranted soon," as Bullard did on Monday. But Jay didn't push back against market expectations for cuts (top pane in the visual) either. Rather, he went with "We will act as appr… read more...

Technically Speaking For June 5: The Rebound's Not Yet Real

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 12:42:37:000

The Federal Reserve issued the latest Beige Book : here is how they described the economy overall (emphasis added): Economic activity expanded at a modest pace overall from April through mid-May, a slight improvement over the previous period. Almost all Districts reported some growth, an… read more...

Be Careful What You Wish For

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 10:34:03:000

Stocks are back in vogue! All it took was a comment by Chairman Powell to ignite animal spirits again, leading to better than 2% gains across the board. Powell simply stated that the Fed was ready to act if the rate of economic growth slowed due to escalating trade tensions, but I suspect he… read more...

The Most Dangerous Man In The World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 09:07:40:000

He is the most dangerous man in the world. Its not necessarily that he means to be. In fact, I think he actually means quite well. Instead, the fact that he is so dangerous simply comes with the position. So much absolute power. So little oversight and accountability. So many cheer h… read more...

The Month Of May Was A 'Game-Changer' For Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 09:01:25:000

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Jun. 3, 2019, in Market & Economic It's the beginning of June, and I haven't been this happy to welcome a new month in a very long time. I suspect many investors and market watchers have that same feeling. May was b… read more...

Global Manufacturing PMI Just Shrank For The First Time In 7 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 07:42:49:000

Perhaps surprising no one, global manufacturing is now in contraction mode for the first time since 2012. Thats according to the most recent reading of the sectors health, the purchasing managers index (PMI), which headed lower for a record 13th straight month in May…. read more...

Technology And The Fight For The Cash Flows Of The Future

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 07:10:47:000

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that there's little benefit to "trading the news" today, as prices adjust instantly to highly-transparent information. Rather, investors would do well to follow long-term cash flows, of which the lion's share is to be found in tech. Ignore market noise … read more...

Yield Curve Inversion May Not Be A Done Deal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 06:11:36:000

In our February 2019 commentary , we forecast that the 10's and 1's yield curve would invert in May. The data below is taken from that market commentary, with a warning that the indicated dates of recession have a very wide standard deviation over the historical record:The 10's and 1's term… read more...

Technically Speaking: Tops Are Processes, Bottoms Are Events

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 05:56:18:000

In April of 2018 , I posted an article laying out 10 reasons why the "bull market" had likely ended for a while. To wit: "I highly suggest you use any substantial rally to reduce risk and rebalance portfolios accordingly. Why? Because I am going to out on a limb and making a call.' I th… read more...

How The U.S. Economy Could Be Impacted By Tariffs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 04:20:42:000

By Liz Ann Sonders Transcript Liz Ann Sonders: Lets talk what everyones talking about, the trade war with China and tariffs. A lot of different views as to whether ultimately this will serve the purpose of getting China to back down from its more aggressive prac… read more...

The Federal Reserve And The Stock Market: The Dance Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 15:21:07:000

How closely is the US stock market tied to the Federal Reserve System? Well, if you havent had a clue as to the closeness of this relationship before today, you should surely observe how dependent the stock market appears to be on positive Federal Reserve talk. This appeared in The … read more...

Powell Is Now Open To A Rate Cut

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 15:20:08:000

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Source: New York Times Financial markets continue to levitate, regardless of corporate earnings. Markets bounced Tuesday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell intimated the Fed could cut rates if the trade war intensifies. Below is a synopsis of Powell… read more...

Economic Outlook: Growth Too Slow, Rates Too High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 13:41:17:000

It's time again to discuss the economy. Most readers know by now that I do this based on a set of leading indicators that have proven to be able to predict business cycles. In this article, I will discuss what the current economic trend means and why the Fed will soon start to cut rates. All t… read more...

Technically Speaking For June 4: A Counter-Rally Is Possible

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 12:28:31:000

St. Louis Fed President Bullard is the first Fed president to publicly state rates may need to come down. Bullard released his speeches in PowerPoint format ; here are the main points:A great deal of information supports Bullard's points. The latest Markit PMI data continues to show a dec… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Talk = $$$ (In The Present Era)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 10:33:58:000

Market Intro SA CBNC CNBC: 1:37PM EST Stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) have enjoyed a positive spat of statements from the China Commerce Ministry as well as from Fed Chair Powell that were risk-asset positive. Spot VIX declined by about 8%, still managing to sport a 17 hand… read more...

The Fed Admits Failure

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 10:05:07:000

Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently. - Henry Ford As I mentioned on Twitter (@leadlagreport), if the Fed cuts rates, Im sorry but that is proof positive that they failed. After this longthat much money printing. … read more...

Top 5 Charts: Global PMIs, CMI, Asian Investors, U.S. Dollar Killer

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 07:06:58:000

Here are some of the standout charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Hope you enjoy them as much as I do. 1. Manufacturing PMIs - USA vs. the World: Well, it's June alrea… read more...

Small-Cap Investors: Time To Listen More Closely

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 04:36:52:000

By Matt Wagner, CFA, Modern Alpha Analyst Last year, we touched on a Federal Reserve (Fed) financial stability report that highlighted elevated corporate leverage as a vulnerability to the financial system . Following that report, the Fed hiked rates in December and signaled further rat… read more...

Nervous Calm Settles Over Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 04:05:46:000

Overview The global capital markets are stabilizing today after taking a body blow of broadening the use of US tariffs (in migration dispute with Mexico), threatening the ratification of NAFTA 2.0, still-escalating hostile rhetoric between the US and China, and the threat of anti-trust actio… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Bonds Show Us The Power Of The Dark Side

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 04:00:00:000

First, I want to begin this article by thanking all those who read my articles for the amazing outpouring of support and prayers for my wife who is recovering from a freak accident. So, with her sleeping right now, I thought I would pen another article to at least keep myself somewhat busy. … read more...

VNQ: Diversification, Fundamentals, And Timing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 16:06:54:000

When analyzing an investment idea, we can do it through different perspectives. The benefits of diversification, the fundamental picture for the asset, and the timing considerations based on momentum and relative strength. Vanguard Real Estate ETF ( VNQ ) currently looks quite solid from those… read more...

Technically Speaking For June 3: The Week Starts Off Badly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 13:01:49:000

The trade wars are heating up. China is preparing a blacklist of companies (emphasis added): Chinas Ministry of Commerce said the list would contain foreign companies, individuals and organizations that do not follow market rules, violate the spirit of contracts, blocka… read more...

Leveraged ETF Decays - Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 12:50:26:000

I measure once a month the decay of major leveraged ETFs. It may be useful for anyone using leveraged ETFs for investing, trading or hedging. Where does the decay come from? Most of the time, a leveraged ETF does worse than the underlying asset leveraged by the same factor. This relative… read more...

Mexico Tariffs: More Trouble For U.S. Auto Makers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 11:39:10:000

That's A Lot of Pesos I was curious this morning about what exactly a 5-25% tariff on all Mexican imports would mean and who would get hurt the most. The biggest problem is that Mexican imports are concentrated in consumer durables and industrial/capital goods, which are already in very p… read more...

My Current View Of The S&P 500 - June 2019 Edition

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 11:19:58:000

This month's article will outline why I will keep my retirement assets 100% allocated to [[SPY]] even though it lost over 6% in May. To recap May, the market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, lost 6.58%. All of those investors who followed the market maxim of "sell in May and go away" sho… read more...

Record High Corporate Debt, QE Worked Then - We Know How To Deal With The Next Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 11:04:53:000

Why Even Be Interested In Corporate Debt Burdens? Every economic statistic needs to be put in its place, what is it being measured and how? But more than that, we need to make the connections to see what it's telling us about the world around us. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York examines… read more...

Summer Song

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 09:57:51:000

In summer, the song sings itself --The Botticellian Trees, William Carlos Williams, 1931 The summer is getting off to a disharmonious start in 2019. Following a relentless +26% rally from Christmas Eve through the end of April, the S&P 500 Index turned cold in May… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Ten-Year Yield Nears 2%, While Volatility Simmers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 08:40:46:000

Market Intro CNBC CNBC: 11:39AM EST Stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are having difficulty making heads or tails of how to proceed as the week opens, having swung meaningfully to both the high and the low end of "unch" as the day begins. Spot VIX is down modestly in the first we… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Which Message Is The Right Message?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 07:57:28:000

There can be little argument that the stock market is a slave to the news at the present time. Friday's surprise pronouncement that the President plans to use tariffs in a new way is exhibit A in this argument. Tweets go out. Threats are made. Uncertainty increases. Stocks are sold. Bonds are … read more...

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Rising - Worse, Trade Overall Is Falling, Not A Good Sign

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 06:32:36:000

Why Should We Be Worried About The Trade Numbers? It's not for the usual reasons politicians like to advance, that's for sure. A good trade deficit isn't something to worry about at all, for there're also services and anyway the whole thing balances out with capital imports. The balance of p… read more...

American Society Of Clinical Oncology: A Biotech Friendly Event In An Unfriendly Healthcare Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 12:56:36:000

Market Pulse The month of May thus far has been mostly a downward ride with an occasional rise, proving to be a mere bunny bump, as indexes have eroded persistently on the lack of a trade resolution with China, an outcome that at one point was considered to be almost in the bag. This is rais… read more...

Diamonds, Spiders And QQQ ETFs Lead The Downside As Bubbles Pop

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 10:55:25:000

Reasons for Caution: Tech stocks continue to get hit by the China trade war. Bank stocks slip as worries about refinancing corporate bonds intensify. The energy sector continues to slump as crude oil declines. Retail stocks continue to clump as costs increase because of the increasing tari… read more...

These Are The Bad Times

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 10:17:45:000

These are the bad times. I opened a May 23 post with those five words and they seem even more apt now than they did a week ago. The linked post documented the fallout in Chinese markets from allegedly imminent US action against a bevy of surveillance companies including Hikvision and Dah… read more...

China And U.S.: Tug Of Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 09:19:04:000

Transcript Shamaila Khan : So for the last year or more we've had this constant conversation about the trade war between the United States and China. What is your opinion on what is happening, and your expectations on how things are going to play out? Mo Ji : For the near term, [a] … read more...

Selloff Overdone, Looking For A Sellable Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 09:04:00:000

On Friday morning, we posted the following commentary for our RIA PRO subscribers: "In a surprising move Thursday night, Donald Trump slapped Mexico with a 5 percent tariff on all goods and set in place a schedule to ratchet it up to 25% over the next four months. The new tariffs are … read more...

Weekly Commentary: So Much For The Trump Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 06:50:20:000

So Much for the "Trump Put." May 31 - Bloomberg (Felice Maranz): "President Trump's promise to impose tariffs on goods until Mexico halts a flow of undocumented immigrants is being panned by analysts and economists Here's a sample of the latest commentary: MUFG, Chris Rupkey: 'If y… read more...

Adaptive Price Modeling Suggests Big Rotation In U.S. Dow Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 06:44:37:000

I have been pouring over the longer-term charts as we've started to see oil and gold move in directions that would indicate increased fear throughout the global markets while a contraction in economic activity/oil prices appears to be setting up for another big move. The objective is to attemp… read more...

Slowing Economy, Plunging Stocks Are Forcing The Fed's Hand

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 06:15:24:000

A few short weeks ago, the economy seemed to be growing, the trade war looked winnable, and the Mueller Report appeared to take presidential impeachment off the table. And then… ...the economy hit a rough patch. Auto sales are down and home sales are way down. On Friday morning: ... read more...

China-U.S.: A Trade War Of Attrition

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 06:04:59:000

On 10 May, 2019, the Trump administration raised tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of imports from China. This escalation of events caught observers by surprise. The Chinese side has retaliated with tariffs on American goods. With these developments, the trade dispute devolving into an economi… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: How Foolish We All Are About China And Life

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 04:00:13:000

While I will let the real analysts debate about how we should handle our trade deal regarding China, I am only here to discuss the sentiment around the China deal. This past week, I have seen many posts like this one: We wouldn't be down at these relatively low le… read more...

There Are Some Positive Data Points

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 13:24:24:000

It seems much of the news being reported on the market and the economy lately is falling in the negative category. With both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index down a little over 5% in the month of May, and with only one trading day remaining, highlighting the neg… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - May 31, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 11:51:44:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. The market took another hit this week. May was a bad month for investors. A look at the data might help put things in perspective. Chart of the Week - The Dreaded "Death Cross" Let me stipulate upfront that I am NOT call… read more...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 11:21:09:000

By Jill Mislinski This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 145.3, down 0.5 from the previous week. Year over year, the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.71%, up slightly from last week. The WLI Growth indi… read more...

June Monthly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 10:59:11:000

The tariff truce came to an abrupt end via presidential tweets on May 3. Until those tweets, US officials had been indicating that progress was being made and there was hope that at the sidelines of the G20 meeting that Trump and Xi would agree on a trade deal. The end of the tariff truce mark… read more...

Monthly Macro Monitor: Economic Reports

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 10:18:45:000

Is a recession coming? Well, yeah, of course it is, but whether it is now, six months from now or 2 years from now or even longer is impossible to say right now. Our Jeff Snider has been dutifully documenting all the negativity reflected in the bond and money markets and he is certainly right … read more...

Tariff Man Strikes Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 07:10:43:000

A little tariff here, a little tariff there, and before you know it, it adds up to a whole lot. We read a contributor last year who argued the trade war was irrelevant to the market, but it seems to have taken a new toll. Since May 5, when President Trump tweeted he was hiking tariffs to 25%… read more...

Consumer Attitudes Remain Buoyant

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 05:46:11:000

By Robert Hughes The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose in May, increasing by 4.9 points to 134.1. The index is constructed so that it equals 100 in 1985. May was the third increase in a row for overall consumer confidence and is at the highest level since November, j… read more...

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Slowing Economy Seen By 2 Regional Feds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 03:07:00:000

This week, our June economic forecast was released which continues to indicate that a slowing economy is in the cards. At the same time 1Q2019 GDP second estimate was released showing GDP grew at a stellar rate of 3.1 % quarter-over-quarter (3.2 % year-over-year). 0.6 % of this 3.1 % growt… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: A Herd Mentality Exists In A Market Driven By Fear And Emotion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 03:05:17:000

"Anything is possible, and the unexpected is inevitable. Proceed accordingly." - Jason Zweig The month of May comes to an end, and it couldn't come soon enough for the bulls. The Sell in May aficionados can finally claim victory. It has been seven years since May posted a negative re… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Tariffs And Trade Wars Rock A Fragile  Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 03:02:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark… read more...

Still Not Enough Bears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 15:05:31:000

After declining for four weeks and five percent, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is still subject to selling pressure. Retail investors haven't yet expressed the level of bearishness typically seen at a market low, which increases the likelihood that the latest correction hasn't ended. While a con… read more...

Economic Risk And The Trump Factor

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 11:40:14:000

No model can capture it. No analyst can fully comprehend it. But it's there and it's not going away, at least not until the 2020 election. For good or ill, the Trump factor keeps on surprising, giving the President's supporters reasons to cheer and opponents endless justifications to oppose hi… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Trump Escalates Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 09:51:03:000

Consumer Confidence The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index rose to 134.1 in May, which matches levels we saw last fall that were at an 18-year high. The outlook for income gains, employment and business conditions all remain positive, which suggests we should continue to see mode… read more...

U.S. Business Policy Uncertainty Up - How Much Will This Spill Over Into Business Sentiment?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 08:41:01:000

Why Should We Care About Policy Uncertainty? If we're going to talk macroeconomics then Keynes is a name we should juggle with. His point about the business cycle being that it depends "upon the animal spirits of businessmen." Business investment is by far the most volatile component of GD… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Stocks Don't Like The New Round Of Trade Threats

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 08:20:06:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:00PM EST Spot VIX presently registers at 18.24, after new threats from the Trump Administration specify 5% tariffs on Mexican goods exported into the US effective June 10th. US indexes ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are off the lowest levels from this morning, but S… read more...

Dallas Fed Conference Surveys Impact Of Technological Change

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 07:49:47:000

The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank held a conference on technology-enabled disruption May 22-23. The first mornings panel featured business leaders discussing trends in their respective industries, which included CEO Greg Armstrong of Plains All American Pipeline ( PAA ), Craig Boyan of… read more...

Market Indexes Are Down In May Over Several Global Crises

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 07:42:28:000

The S&P 500 is down about 4% so far in May (through last Friday) mostly due to trade tensions with China, but those tensions were loosened somewhat on Friday after U.S. officials eased some of the trade restrictions on China's 5G giant, Huawei, granting them a 90-day temporary extension to… read more...

Preparing For The End Of The Cycle: May Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 07:34:48:000

After I didnt publish an update in April 2019 for several reasons (mostly because there was not much news to write about compared to March), I will provide an update again at the end of May. Similar to past updates, I will first talk about the general US stock market and some early w… read more...

Market Update: A Lesson On The Yield Curve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 07:23:16:000

By OpenMarkets When it comes to yield curve, everyone is focused on the inversion of the curve between the three-month and ten-year rates. That inversion has led to a recession 57 percent of the time in the last two decades. More interesting, says Jack Bouroudjian, is that it has led … read more...

IWM: Small Caps Are Not The Ideal Shelter From Trade Tensions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 06:00:30:000

The recent escalation in trade tensions between the US and China has been weighing heavily on financial markets. Since this trade war began in January 2018, there has been debate over whether small-cap stocks are more attractive than large-cap stocks, as certain investors believe that the form… read more...

Weekly Edge: Bonds Signal An Economic Warning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 13:39:10:000

By Ansh Chaudhary The 3-month and 10-year Treasury yield curve inverted on Wednesday. CNBC writes : The yield curve inversion between the 3-month Treasury bill and the 10-year note widened to its deepest level since the financial crisis, with investors now expecting a 13 basis point pr… read more...

Decline In Q1 Corporate Profits Strong Support For Slowdown, But Not Near-Term Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 10:17:59:000

Introduction In my last article I noted that , depending on whether you look at the yield curve or new home sales, both of which have historically been very good long leading indicators, the economy is either careening towards recession or else no cause for worry. Both measures, h… read more...

Buy The Dip In Long-Term Treasury Bonds To Hedge Stocks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 09:33:42:000

The 10-year Treasury yield pays 15 basis points LESS than the three-month Treasury yield. That's rather nutty when you think about it. Even nuttier? 30-year sovereign yields across the globe are LOWER than the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) of 2.38%. Why are bond market investors demanding the s… read more...

Debunking The Imminent Recession Stories

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 08:45:32:000

All bull markets end. The same can be said about bear markets. Bull markets end when the majority are so confident and "pumped up" that they cannot even imagine a bear market starting, and bear markets end when participants are so disillusioned that rising prices are inconceivable. At the pr… read more...

June Markets May Be Poised To Face More Tariff Woes, Eye Fed Meeting

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 08:06:07:000

A month ago, the June Fed meeting looked like it might be at a turning point. After several years of rate increases, it appeared that many investors expected Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and company to loosen the screws a bit as the economy slowed. That was then; this is now. As we head into J… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - May 30, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 06:43:52:000

The BCI at 256.6 is down from last week's 257.5, and is below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 83.2. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 13.4 is below last weeks 14.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to dro… read more...

Failure At 2,800 Spells Doom For The S&P 500!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 06:28:55:000

This is not good! The only reason the S&P 500 is holding the 200-day moving average at 2,776 is because the 200 dma keeps sinking. That, of course, is also pulling the 50 dma lower and once it comes down we're only a month or two away from a " Death Cross " and then we would be looking… read more...

Dealing With Disruption

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 03:39:10:000

In early May we gathered our global team of investment professionals in Newport Beach for PIMCO's 38th annual Secular Forum. With input from invited speakers (see Our Process section, below) as well as our Global Advisory Board and other consultants, we zoomed in on several key secular drive… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 03:34:01:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 28, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with an 18.04% gain and in second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 13.29%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 11.65%. Coming in last is Toky… read more...

What The Bond Market Is Telling You

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 02:52:23:000

By Craig Hemke "The writing is on the wall." "What is past is prologue." "History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes." Yada, yada, yada… So, to the title of this post: what is the bond market telling you? Well, let's look at the current structure of the yield curve: Fed Funds overnight ... read more...

Technically Speaking For May 29: The Move Lower Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 12:39:16:000

Despite five consecutive down weeks for the DJIA, the amount of the decline is low. From Bespoke (emphasis added): The DJIA is entering this last full week of May riding a streak of five straight weeks of declines in what is the longest weekly losing streak for the index in just under e… read more...

Technically Speaking: Rothschild's Investing Rule

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 04:15:39:000

Since the markets were closed yesterday for Memorial Day, there isn't much for us to update technically from this past weekend's missive. However, I did provide an update yesterday for our RIAPRO subscribers with respect to where the S&P 500 is currently trading and why we expect a sho… read more...

Confidence Rebounds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 02:25:54:000

Despite rising trade tensions with China, rising geopolitical concerns with North Korea and Iran, and a weak stock market, US consumers remain surprisingly confident. In the latest read for the month of May, Consumer Confidence rose much more than expected, hitting a level of 134.1, up from la… read more...

When Cyber Risks Meet Geopolitics

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 00:09:51:000

Cybersecurity is becoming a pressing issue - and a flash point where countries' economic and national security interests can intersect. The combination of these issues is complicating U.S.-China trade negotiations, with market implications across the technology supply chain in particular. C… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - May 28, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 23:53:00:000

Read more … read more...

Goldilocks And The 3 Bears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 23:32:49:000

Beginning around the end of 2006 it was common to hear that the U.S. stock market would keep climbing because the U.S. economy was neither too hot nor too cold; it was just right. This was often called the Goldilocks economy on cable TV in honor of the young girl who wanders into a strange hom… read more...

What History Says About The Current Correction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 22:10:54:000

After a volatile 2018, it is easy to understand the major stock market top case; it is a bit more difficult to emotionally respect the S&P 500 ( SPY ) may be consolidating/giving back some gains prior to making a push higher. The 2019 chart shows a sharp decline, rally … read more...

Falling Stocks And Mixed Signals: Sentiment Softening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 21:42:21:000

On April 1, 2019, my article entitled " Falling U.S. Rates And The Stock Market " went live on Seeking Alpha. I identified falling U.S. rates relative to Japanese interest rates; effectively a shift in sentiment whereby the U.S. was becoming less attractive from a forex currency and carry-tr… read more...

Double Whammy: Fed Policy And The U.S.-China Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 21:32:26:000

Markets were decisively in risk-off mode last week. Following weak manufacturing news last Thursday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury sank to its lowest level since October 2017. The spread between the 10-year yield and the three-month yield, in fact, inverted once again, with… read more...

Resolving The Contradictory Signal Between The Yield Curve And Housing: Watch Corporate Profits

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 16:42:27:000

Introduction Is your favored metric housing or the yield curve? Depending on which one you prefer, the economy is either careening towards recession or else no worries. Because the two very important leading metrics are giving completely different signals this spring. Is t… read more...

Technically Speaking For May 28: The Markets Continue To 'Roll Over'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 12:42:49:000

The yield curve continues to signal a recession. As I noted in my weekly Turning Points Newsletter : My recession probability for the next six to 12 months is still at 15%, largely due to the yield curve's near inversion. Lisa Abramowicz made the same observation on Twitter this AM: … read more...

Now Or Never

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 09:58:32:000

Every moment is the paradox of now or never. - Simon Van Booy Why do I keep repeating myself by saying that there remains a very real chance of a Spring Crash in the S&P 500 ( SPY )? Why do I believe that if it were to happen, it likely would be in the coming weeks? Let… read more...

Gun Manufacturers Stand To Benefit From An Uncertain 2020 Election

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 07:30:36:000

Whether one supports more or less gun control, one thing is certain: the politics behind guns moves marketsand bigly. Following the election and reelection of Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, gun manufacturer stocks rose sharply on the speculation of gun reform [1]. Between 2008 and 2013… read more...

The 3 Most Bearish Charts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 06:36:51:000

*Note: In early June, I will be launching here on Seeking Alpha a premium version of the Lead-Lag Report which will have a comprehensive review of markets, as well as include trading signals based on the four award-winning papers I co-authored on markets. There are risks and costs t… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Do Not Read This If You Are Closed Minded - It Will Shock Your Sensibilities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 04:00:00:000

I have now been writing for Seeking Alpha for approximately 6 years. And, I can honestly say that not much has changed in the readership base. Yes, that means you. You see, the same folks that have commented on my articles that Elliott Wave analysis is akin to voodoo are still making the exa… read more...

If Stocks Go Cold, Which Currencies Benefit Most?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 00:37:43:000

By Kathy Lien At a Glance Market-sensitive currencies like euro and pound sterling tend to perform better when stock markets rally The U.S. dollar could be the ultimate winner if trade war news sends stocks lower Stocks hit record highs in April, but for the past few weeks, it ha… read more...

Financial Markets To Federal Reserve: Time To Start Cutting Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 23:25:41:000

In late 2018, the US stock market tanked, in effect holding a gun to its own head and threatening to pull the trigger unless the Fed stopped raising interest rates. The Fed, painfully aware that an equities bull market is an existential threat in today's hyper-leveraged world, quickly caved, p… read more...

The Trade War Resumes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 23:08:53:000

Donald Trump, on May 5, suddenly revealed that a trade agreement with China was not imminent after all. To the contrary, the Administration, on May 10, raised its earlier 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25%, and threatened to extend 25% tariffs to the remainder of impor… read more...

Ever-Higher Debt

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 22:15:20:000

With a more relaxed attitude towards the sustainability of public finances which has increasing support from some corners of economics, how worried should investors be that public finances become unsustainable and ratchet up interest rates? The past decade has gone through bizarre swings in … read more...

Top 5 Charts: Risk Watch, Bond Bulls, China, And AA Funds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 16:09:10:000

Here're some of the standout charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Hope you enjoy them as much as I do. 1. Cyclicals vs. Defensives - Keep an eye on EM: This is one of … read more...

Top 5 Charts: Risk Watch, Bond Bulls, China, And AA Funds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 16:09:10:000

Here're some of the standout charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Hope you enjoy them as much as I do. 1. Cyclicals vs. Defensives - Keep an eye on EM: This is one of … read more...

All 5 Equity ETFs Have Negative Weekly Charts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 08:34:42:000

Reasons for Caution: Tech stocks are getting hit by the China trade war. Bank stocks are lagging on worries about refinancing of corporate bonds. The energy sector is slumping as crude oil declines. Retail stocks have been taken to the woodshed on concerns of increasing costs due to tariff… read more...

U.S. Flash PMI Falters To 3-Year Low In May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 07:29:57:000

Growth of US business activity slowed sharply in May, according to the latest survey data, as trade war worries and increased uncertainty dealt a further blow to order book growth and business confidence. The data indicate reduced second quarter growth and increased pressure on corporate earni… read more...

Market Commentary - May 23, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 06:10:00:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - May 24, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 04:12:10:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. The market has been weak lately. Should we be worried? A look at the data might help. Chart of the Week - The Treasury Yield Curve The Treasury yield curve has inverted again. This indicator has a nearly perfect record of … read more...

Flight To Safety: 'All That Glitters Is Not Gold!' - William Shakespeare

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 03:28:17:000

A Retraction Before getting into the meat of this post covering the last ten years of 'Flights to Safety' and gold as a flight-to-safety asset, I need to take back all the nice things I said about Barron's last week because they went back to the dark side this week ( "The Dow Celebrates Five… read more...

You Know Things Are Falling When...

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 00:36:42:000

when the stock market's decade-long bottom trend becomes its new top trend and then it can't even make it back up to that line as a top trend. We're sloughing away now, and it can be a long slide to the bottom or endless side-winding of big ups and downs that go nowhere, just as… read more...

Seeing Through The Smoke Of The Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-26 09:08:46:000

I'd like to open this week's piece with a bit of Twitter wisdom - as much as an oxymoron as that sounds. The impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's sweet whispers to the market that the 2018 rate hikes are on hold for 2019 is wearing off as politics and trade tensions dominate the marke… read more...

U.S.-China Trade Tensions Rattle Markets Again. Is This Time Different?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-26 08:48:23:000

On a special podcast edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed the escalating U.S.-China trade war, flash Purchasing Managers' Index ((PMI)) numbers for May and the potential for changes to monetary policy in Au… read more...

What Could Move The Markets Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-26 05:18:12:000

Markets are not too expensive, or too cheap. As Russ explains, that offers a clue into what could cause the next move. Stock markets have been more wobbly of late. While the proximate cause was an unexpected deterioration (collapse?) in trade talks with China, many investors were getting n… read more...

Weekly Commentary: The Ignore Them, Then Panic Dynamic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-26 05:04:09:000

After years of increasingly close cooperation and collaboration, the relationship has turned strained. Both sides are digging in their heels. Credibility is on the line. If one side doesn't back down, things could really turn problematic. The Fed is asserting that it's not about to lower the t… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Market Crash Warning - The Trap Door Has Opened

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-26 03:45:00:000

I love reading about all the good news in the market. This past week, we saw U.S. jobless claims dip to 211,000, and they are now near half-century lows. We also saw U.S. consumer sentiment reach a 15-year high. So, what could go wrong? Well, as Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic… read more...

The Bulls Continue To Bet On The Fed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-26 03:29:13:000

Market Review & Update Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. As is generally the case, bonds have been warning the bulli… read more...

Buffett And Munger Are Licking Their Chops

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-25 21:28:05:000

The financial markets have been under immense pressure ever since Trump announced that he would be raising tariffs to 25% on the initial $250 billion of Chinese exports to the U.S. on May 10th while also threatening to impose 25% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese exports by the … read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: Should We Be Worried About A Sputtering Economic Engine?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-25 20:30:09:000

The economic calendar is normal but we have a holiday-shortened week. We can also expect a slow return from the weekend marking the unofficial start of summer. Despite the interesting calendar, the biggest economic news will come in two weeks. While any tweet or Pres. Trumps visit to J… read more...

Market Volatility: When Defense Can Be The Best Offense

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-25 12:25:32:000

By Catherine Yoshimoto, director, product management It would be tough to argue that low market volatility hasn't had a good run. But between the selloff at the end of last year and the more recent turbulence triggered by trade war concerns, it would appear we could be nearing the end of t… read more...

Durable Goods And 1998

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-25 11:13:26:000

We have arrived at revisions season once again. It's that time of year when many if not most (I don't actually keep track) of economic accounts undergo heightened scrutiny. More data is collected from more comprehensive surveys using far larger samples. These are compared to the existing high … read more...

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Coincident Indicators Show A Slowing Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-25 03:27:00:000

For the last several months, the authors of the Cass Freight Index have voiced economic concerns : While we are still not ready to turn completely negative in our outlook, we do think it is prudent to become more alert to each additional incoming data point on freight flow volume, and ar… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Lower Mortgage Rates Ignite Housing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-25 03:06:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mar… read more...

Trade Wars, The Prospects For Freer Trade And The Impact On Asset Prices

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 23:38:56:000

As Sino-US trade talks ended not only without a deal but with another sharp increase in tariffs, it is worth looking at what has happened and why. During 2018, the US reversed 38 years of tariff reduction with a radical abruptness, imposing tariffs on 50% of Chinese imports. China retaliated… read more...

The Impact Of U.S.-China Trade Tensions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 22:45:41:000

By Eugenio Cerutti, Assistant to the Director at IMF's Research Department, Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of IMF's Research Department, and Adil Mohommad, Economist in IMF's Research Department US-China trade tensions have negatively affected consumers as well as many pr… read more...

Business Debt Is Risky To Borrowers, Not The Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 22:25:10:000

Business debt has risk. Duh. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell recently discussed the risks of business debt in a speech , making good points but also raising some unreasonable fears. Worse, a few headline writers clickbaited his mild concerns into strong fears. Debt-equity ratio fo… read more...

Durable Goods Sucking Wind

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 22:10:02:000

This morning's advance report on April manufacturing new orders, sales, and inventories was a pretty notable disappointment. The advance report only provides data on durable goods industries, which are revised at a two week lag when numbers for nondurable industries are added too. In addition … read more...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 21:56:13:000

By Jill Mislinski This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 145.8, down 0.9 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.73%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is… read more...

Durable-Goods Orders Appear To Be Plateauing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 20:08:35:000

By Robert Hughes New orders for durable goods decreased 2.1 percent in April, led by a 5.9 percent fall in transportation equipment. Over the past year, orders are up just 0.2 percent to $248.4 billion, about 5 percent below the all-time high of $262.2 billion in September 2018 but more th… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of May 20-24: Small-Caps And Treasuries Might Be Signaling A Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 10:52:19:000

International Economic Releases of Note China/Japan/Australia Japan 1Q GDP up 2.1% annual rate Industrial Production down 4.3% Y/Y Exports down 2.4% Y/Y Markit PMI 49.6 Australia Westpac leading index down 0.47% Australian PMI 52.2 Constru… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Fasten Your Seat Belts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 09:14:43:000

New and Existing Home Sales New homes sales declined 6.9% in April to an annualized 673,000, but that was from an upwardly revised 723,000 in March. Sales are up 7% year-over-year and higher priced homes ($400k+) are gaining share. Mortgage rates, which have fallen 50 basis points since th… read more...

Suddenly U.S. Service Sector Growth Dives, Manufacturing Gets Even Weaker

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 07:05:37:000

Slowest growth in orders since Oct 2009. Cleanest dirty shirt gets dirtier. These are just the "Flash" Purchasing Managers' Indices ((PMI)) which are reported a week before the final PMIs at the end of the month, and they represent just one view, but these are big moves, both, in US manufa… read more...

U.S. Household Debt Position Is Best It's Been For Decades

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 04:21:11:000

Big Numbers Don't - Necessarily - Mean Big Problems It's trivially easy to show that this or that other economic number is at record ever levels. Just quote the non-inflation adjusted number. If that doesn't do it then just shout about some total, without adjusting for population, or incom… read more...

Short And Sharp: The Technology Cold War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 03:21:29:000

With the U.S. intensifying its battle via restrictions on exports of technology to China, the trade war is increasingly showing signs of becoming a tech war. Broad market reaction to the latest developments has been surprisingly subdued. Maybe investors believe the impact will be isolated to j… read more...

A Fed Rate Cut Looks Unlikely This Year. Here's Why

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 02:48:23:000

By Paul Eitelman Is the market-implied probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) rate cut later this year overblown? Our answer: Yes. Although markets currently peg the odds of a lowering in borrowing costs at roughly 55% by the end of 2019 1 , we see this as an unlikely outcome,… read more...

Here's Why The Market Could Melt Down From Here

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 01:30:09:000

Source: Business Insider A few weeks ago, when stocks were near their all-time highs, I penned an article explaining why you may want to take some profits, sell in May and go away this year. Here we are several weeks later, and May has not been a good month for stocks i… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K From Last Week, Beats Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 23:57:48:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,250,… read more...

New Low For Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 23:51:48:000

Trade headlines have continued to have a negative impact on stock prices and, in turn sentiment levels, over the past week. The AAII investor sentiment survey saw bullish sentiment decline sharply once again this week, falling to 24.71% compared to 29.82% last week. To think that just two … read more...

Another Breadth Warning For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 16:00:00:000

Back in September, I noted there was a historic streak in Hindenburg Omens triggering on the New York Stock Exchange. Shortly afterward, the stock market embarked on its steep fourth quarter plunge. Last week, the NYSE triggered another Hindenburg Omen. And, while this one has yet to become … read more...

Another Breadth Warning For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 16:00:00:000

Back in September, I noted there was a historic streak in Hindenburg Omens triggering on the New York Stock Exchange. Shortly afterward, the stock market embarked on its steep fourth quarter plunge. Last week, the NYSE triggered another Hindenburg Omen. And, while this one has yet to become … read more...

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 14:35:59:000

We have published a series of articles outlining our expectations for the US equity market in Seeking Alpha over the past year. Our systematic approach led to a precise forecast of a cyclical correction, which started to unfold in Q4 2018. Subsequently, equities embarked upon a remarkable rall… read more...

Technically Speaking For May 23

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 12:40:44:000

We've received the latest data from the housing market. The Census reported that new home sales were down 6.9% M/M but up 7% Y/Y. The decline followed three months of increases. Sales declined in three regions: the South (-7.3%), West (-8.3%), and Midwest (-7.4%). Northeast sales increased… read more...

What The Bond Market And Real Estate Market Are Telling Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 11:38:39:000

Trade wars. Tariffs. Trump. One might think that the "Ts" are solely responsible for financial market volatility. In truth, a wider variety of cross currents are at work. Some have been bubbling up for a number of years. Consider the debt profiles of investment grade corporations. Cash on … read more...

Sector Performance Mid-Week Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 10:39:33:000

Let's start with the 3-month table: Technology used to dominate this table. Now, it's sandwiched between two defensive issues: staples on top (+6.79) and utilities (+4.89). All ten industries used to be up, with the top performers posting 10%+ gains; while a majority of sectors are still hig… read more...

Weekly Edge: Investors Rethink Markets As Trade Tensions Escalate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 08:44:22:000

By Ansh Chaudhary Since trade negotiations stalled in early May, U.S. and Chinese investors have been trying to figure out how to maneuver during these times. After an executive order from President Trump halted Huawei's ability to buy American-made parts and components (restrictions tha… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Volatility Spikes As Trade Narrative Disrupts Calm

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 08:15:45:000

Market Intro CNBC: 11:00AM EST The action in S&P futures ( SPY ) was downward sloping pretty much from the outset of the overnight session. Asian markets ( AAXJ ) led the way, but European equities ( VGK ) have experienced the worst of it, which is interesting given that it's alleg… read more...

The Fed Is Stuck Between Dull National Activity And Disruptive Trade Policy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 06:38:47:000

The monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve weighs heavily for stock investors, but how it weighs depends greatly on the markets perception of the economic situation at the time. The Chicago Fed just published its updated National Activity Index data, which serves as a guide to the… read more...

The Booming U.S. Stock Market... Will It Last?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 05:48:02:000

By Gregory Kolb Stein's Law, a principle from the late Herbert Stein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Nixon administration, states "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." Mr. Stein's observation was made during the debate over how to address the widening … read more...

Sentiment Speaks: The Fed Is Caught Behind The Curve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 03:45:00:000

I have written many times about how the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. And, we are about to see yet another example of historys lessons. For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with th… read more...

Technically Speaking For May 22

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 13:05:45:000

The Federal Reserve released the latest Meeting Minutes today . The Fed still sees a low inflation problem: The staff's forecast for inflation was revised down slightly, reflecting some recent softer-than-expected readings on consumer price inflation that were not expected to persist al… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: VIX Dips Lower Alongside Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 08:41:21:000

Market Intro CNBC: 11:24AM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ ) are down modestly in the Wednesday session, though small caps ( IWM ) are experiencing a bit more pain in relative terms. That said, volatility is flat-to-down alongside stocks, showing a lack of concern on the part of trad… read more...

Market Update: Sovereign Wealth Funds And Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 04:13:36:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian explains how sovereign wealth funds are affecting recent market volatility. The top ten funds represent $10 trillion in global market value, and the re-weighting of the MSCI Index could have major implications. "Today, the funds are playing a large ro… read more...

Finally, Some Positive Trade News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 04:09:20:000

Toward the end of a week during which global markets were pummeled by a sudden worsening in the prospects for a trade agreement between China and the US, President Trump announced two positive developments in US trade relations with our allies. The first was a decision to defer for six months … read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report: 21 May 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 03:17:03:000

Recent economic data is clouding the outlook for the US macro trend. Although a recession hasn't started and isn't likely to begin in the immediate future, several key indicators suggest that output is slowing and so uncertainty is rising for the second half of the year. Notably, industrial … read more...

First-Quarter Sales And Earnings Delivered Positive Surprises

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 03:09:24:000

First-quarter announcement season is now more than 90% complete, and I am happy to report that the S&P 500s sales are up 5.9% and earnings are up 2.2%, which is a stunning surprise, since the analyst community had predicted negative earnings growth and 4% sales growth. Accelerating… read more...

Why The U.S.-China Trade War Is Not About Jobs - Part II

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 02:56:09:000

We're meant to believe that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are good friends at least, according to the former. But, at this rate, it's going to need a hell of a lot more than sharing "beautiful" chocolate cake to calm things down in the US-China trade dispute. Far from cooling down, thi… read more...

Fundamentally Speaking: 7 Measures Suggest A Decade Of Low Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 02:40:18:000

Price is what you pay, value is what you get." - Warren Buffett Just recently, I discussed the importance of valuations as it relates to investors who are close to retirement age. To wit: "Unless you have contracted 'vampirism,' then you do NOT have 90, 100, or more, years to … read more...

Global Markets: 5 Events To Watch This Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 02:11:27:000

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on May 20, 2019, in Market & Economic It seems that so much happens in a given week these days. However, this week could be particularly momentous as we start to get answers on some key questions that have implications… read more...

Shifting Trade Politics Should Not Be Ignored

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 01:51:28:000

Following the breakdown in US/China trade negotiations earlier this month, US and Chinese actions since then point in our view to a protracted period of tariffs. While Trump has placed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, China has allowed the renminbi to depreciate markedly since May 10. Furt… read more...

Did The Market Just Negate An Important Bullish Signal?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 13:09:25:000

An April 5 video covered a rare momentum shift in the S&P 500 ( SPY ) that went into the history books on March 29 (see point A below). The study was updated in this weeks video, which can be found below in this post. The second leg of the study was conducted after the 12th con… read more...

Technically Speaking For May 21: The Moving Average Picture Is Weak

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 12:42:32:000

The OECD has once again warned about declining global trade (emphasis added): A year later, global momentum has weakened markedly and growth is set to remain subpar as trade tensions persist. Trade and investment have slowed sharply, especially in Europe and Asia. Business and consumer c… read more...

U.S./China Trade Tensions Are Testing Investors' Nerves

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 09:27:12:000

By Stephen H. Dover, CFA, Executive Vice President, Head of Equities The war of words between the Trump administration and China threatens to break out into a full-scale trade war. Franklin Templeton Head of Equities, Stephen Dover, considers the reaction of global investors and puts the … read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Tariffs Will Slow The Rate Of Economic Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 08:07:19:000

Industrial Production The chart on industrial production is starting to look very ugly. We are rapidly approaching zero growth on a year-over-year basis. Industrial production declined 0.5% in April, well below the consensus of no change and the manufacturing component also fell 0.5%. Apri… read more...

Why The U.S. Will Not Go The Way Of Japan: Entrepreneurship

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 07:09:24:000

A number of writers and commenters on Seeking Alpha frequently predict that the US is about to go the way of Japan. They expect that the US will enter a long period of economic stagnation, marked by low inflation (if not deflation) and low economic growth, despite massive expansion of the mon… read more...

Trade Discussions Hurting Capital Spending And Economic Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 06:19:55:000

Strong capital spending is nowhere in sight. Interest rates have stopped climbing, the economy grew quite rapidly in the first quarter, and the government seems to be motivated toward reducing regulations. Yet, capital spending is morose at best. According to Amrith Ramkumar and … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 04:20:27:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 20, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 16.44% gain, and in second place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.27%. In third place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 13.16%. Coming in … read more...

U.S.-China Standoff Catches U.S. Economy At Low Ebb

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 02:41:56:000

By Philip Lawlor, managing director, head of global markets research The pickup in headline first-quarter US GDP growth sent out false signals about the underlying health of the US economy, as a closer analysis reveals. And the recent flare-up in US-China trade tensions isn't helping. As… read more...

Assessing The Business Cycle, Mid-May 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 22:47:16:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 19, 2019, by Menzie Chinn here . Several key series look like they have peaked; nowcasts indicate slowing growth. Forward looking indicators look "iffy." Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (re… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - May 20, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 22:20:00:000

Read more … read more...

Technically Speaking For May 20: Not A Great Way To Start The Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 12:45:15:000

The FT was very happy with Japan's latest GDP report. Me, not so much . The 2.1% annual growth rate was impressive. But two large Q/Q increases were responsible: residential investment rose 1.1% while public investment advanced 1.5%. Other internals were weak: private consumption was down… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: The Nuclear Option?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 08:20:04:000

Greetings from Mykonos, Greece. Since I am traveling with my wife and exploring the Greek Isles, I'm going to keep my commentary brief for the next couple weeks. One of the benefits of traveling abroad is you are removed from the daily machinations of the markets, which sometimes makes it a … read more...

News Cycle Vs. Business Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 04:41:56:000

By Erik Knutzen Trade talks are important and may cause volatility, but they should not determine portfolio strategy. Headlines on the front page of the newspapers have been propelling markets again over the past two weeks. Earlier in the year, the dovish turn by the major central bank… read more...

My #1 Rule Of Investing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 04:11:47:000

We are not market timers, we are risk managers, which means we gradually adjust our allocation in accordance with a shift in those warning flags for the level of danger in the market. Most money managers out there follow a blind buy-and-hold approach. That's not a problem for investors in th… read more...

Sentiment Speaks - April's Volatility 'May' Just Have Been The Beginning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 04:00:00:000

Big Moves In The VXX and VIX Over The Past Two Weeks Since the lows that were struck in late April, we have seen a sharp rise in both the CBOE VIX Index as well as the VIX Futures and the Volatility ETFs which are derivatives of those futures products. The VIX index saw a move up of close … read more...

Investors Too Quick To Cash Out

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 12:58:32:000

If the events of the past two weeks have taught us any lesson, its that investors are only too ready to throw out the proverbial baby with the bathwater. The slightest appearance of bad news, especially as it pertains to the global trade outlook, is still used by many as an excuse to h… read more...

State Of The U.S. Consumer For May 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 12:16:12:000

Consumer spending comprises 70% of all U.S. economic activity, making the health of the U.S. consumer vital to growth. Let's see how healthy or not that state currently is. Jobs Market The jobs market is central to this question: if consumers can find jobs and wages are rising, there is a … read more...

Sector Performance Week In Review For The Week Of May 13-17

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 12:09:41:000

Let's begin with the three-month table: Seven of ten sectors advanced, with technology leading the way. But staples and utilities are the number two and three performers respectively whose advances are also strong relative to technology (Tech is up 8.62 while staples advanced 6.84 and utilit… read more...

Without A Rally This Week, All 5 Equity ETFs Will Have Negative Weekly Charts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 11:49:31:000

The weekly chart for Diamonds has been downgraded to negative as the inflating parabolic bubble is popping. The weekly charts for Spiders and QQQ have been downgraded to neutral. The weekly charts for the Transports ETF and the Russell 2000 ETF have been downgraded to negative…. read more...

The Ideological War Of Comparable Powers In A Small World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 09:50:39:000

People need to stop calling the conflict between the U.S. and China a trade war because that term is misleading. It is an ideological war of comparable powers in a small world. In other words, it is not nearly as much about trade as it is about 1) two different approaches to life that extend t… read more...

The Bulls Are Betting On A 'Long Shot'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 09:25:49:000

Market Review & Update Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. Then, the White House reignited the "trade war" with Chin… read more...

3 Things I Think I Think - It's Rubio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 08:16:08:000

Originally published on 05/18/2019 Here are some things I think I am thinking about on this beautiful Saturday morning 1) Are buybacks propping up the stock market? One of the more annoying narratives going around these days is this idea that buybacks are propping up the stock … read more...

Market Loses Its Hopium-Induced High, Falls 4 Weeks Straight

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 05:18:40:000

Stocks posted their fourth straight weekly loss across all three headline indices this week, but more important than that, they proved convincingly on Friday that the market is as fully intoxicated as I claimed in my recent article " Hopium Floats ." The path of indices through the day looke… read more...

Why The U.S.-China Trade War Is Not About Jobs - Part I

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 04:04:35:000

Donald Trump continued to do his favourite thing this weekhanging out on Twitter. We're supposed to believe he has the Chinese on the run in trade negotiations. But look around wherever you are right now, Dear Reader. Whether you're at homein your place of workdining … read more...

Weekly Commentary: True Start To U.S. Vs. China Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 04:04:15:000

Let's begin with the markets. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped eight bps this week to 2.39%, nearing the March 27th low (2.37%). Two-year yields fell seven bps to 2.20%, a 13-month low. German bund yields declined six bps to negative 0.10%, the low closing yield going back to September 2016. G… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of May 13-17

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 14:59:14:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic numbers to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction -- to see if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." Conclusion: My recession pro… read more...

Will The U.S.-China Trade War Hurt Consumer Spending?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 11:49:48:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Quantitative Investment Strategist Abraham Robison and Sophie Antal Gilbert, head of AIS business solutions, discussed the recent setback in U.S.-China trade negotiations and what it may mean for markets going forward. They also chatted abou… read more...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 10:39:17:000

By Jill Mislinski This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 146.7, down 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year, the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.84%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator i… read more...

A Rate Cut In The U.S. Is Closer Than Ever, And So Is A Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 09:34:42:000

While the leading indices went through a sharp rally during the first months of 2019, the bond markets "insist" on drawing a completely different picture. Bonds ( LQD , AGG , BND , HYG , JNK , AWF , BKLN ) suggest that the US economy ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) is heading to a slowd… read more...

Filling A Giant Hole: March Inventories And The Fed's GDPNow

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 06:12:01:000

The First Law of Holes I think they stopped digging. Chris Wimbush "When you are in a hole, stop digging ." - The First Law of Holes In reviewing the Q1 GDP report, it boiled down to some startling numbers: In real dollars, the US economy grew by $100 billion from July t… read more...

10 Things You Need To Know About REITs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 06:00:00:000

Whats your idea of a perfect investment? Thats a tricky question, but those looking for above average current returns, along with reasonably good price appreciation prospects over time and with only modest risk will certainly want to consider apartment c… read more...

Stocks For The Long Run? LOL

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 05:30:00:000

You can't deny laughter; when it comes, it plops down in your favorite chair and stays as long as it wants. - Stephen King (*NOTE: In June I will be launching a premium version of the Lead-Lag Report here at Seeking Alpha, which will include significant analysis and persp… read more...

Consumer Expectations Surge

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 05:17:30:000

After a strong slate of economic data on Thursday, Friday's data continued the positive trend with a much stronger-than-expected sentiment report from the University of Michigan where the headline index came in at its highest level since January 2004. While economists were forecasting the inde… read more...

The Lady, Or The Tiger?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 04:54:08:000

"In waking a tiger, use a long stick." - Mao Zedong Watching with interest the collapse of the China trade deal with the US, triggering the return of much muted volatility, as the fear of the "sell in May" motto settles in, given the rising tensions between the two powers. When it came to … read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Selling Stocks Due To The Tariff Issues May Be Repeating The Same Mistake Made In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 04:18:45:000

"Emotional control is the most essential factor in playing the market. Never lose control of your emotions when the market moves against you. Don't get too confident over your wins, nor too despondent over your losses." - Jesse Livermore Take a deep breath. With stocks struggling to fi… read more...

Why Volatility Could Be Worse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 10:42:25:000

Russ discusses why volatility has not been more severe, even though growth has softened. With one Sunday afternoon tweet, President Trump reintroduced what had recently vanished from financial markets: volatility. By Thursday May 9th, the VIX Index, which measures implied volatility on the… read more...

The Roman Legion Is Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 10:00:26:000

If you must break the law, do it to seize power: in all other cases observe it." - Julius Caesar During recent events in Verona and Rome, Matteo Salvini went back on the offensive. He stated that the League and the Five Star Movement would deliver on the package of stimulus measures they… read more...

The Deal That Wasn't There

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 08:34:08:000

By James Gorrie As of May 10, trade talks between the United States and China had stalled. Then, on May 13, China retaliated by raising tariffs up to 25 percent on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. There's also the possibility that China will sell a significant portion of U.S. Treasury b… read more...

How Swings In Economic Growth Affect Stock Market Risk And Return

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 07:58:59:000

It is often said that the economy and the stock market are not the same. Evidence for this can be seen during 2019. For most of the first quarter, economic news was underwhelming. This was confirmed by the slowdown in consumer spending reported in the 1Q GDP estimate by the Bureau of Economic … read more...

Post-Tariff Considerations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 05:35:25:000

President Trump has declared he will extend tariffs of 25% on all America's imports of Chinese goods. China is responding with tariff increases of its own. The consequences of this action and reaction will be to kick-start higher monetary inflation in America and an economic slump. This articl… read more...

Sentiment May Be Bullish, But Weakening Fundamentals Mark The Turn

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 05:04:41:000

The divergence between the stock market and the underlying economy has gotten ridiculous. While most of the productive economic indicators are falling, the stock market keeps rallying after each correction. The market does not pay attention to fundamentals anymore and is largely driven by po… read more...

U.S. Retail Sales Fall In April - Where The Money Is Going

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 04:26:21:000

US retail sales are reported by census to be 0.2% down for April. This is not normally taken to be a good sign. If everyone's spending less money then this is less aggregate demand, therefore we might be in for a shrinking economy. And that's certainly possible, of course it is. Although it's … read more...

Despite Steepening Yield Curve, Investors Embrace Bond Funds In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 04:15:45:000

Photo Source: Andy Wong/Pool via REUTERS. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, right, poses with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, center, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, left, before they proceed to their meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, Wednesday, May 1, … read more...

China Questions U.S. Sincerity

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 03:51:20:000

Overview: Since the presidential tweets on May 3, the US had the initiative in the negotiations with China, but today, China has pushed back. It is cool to the idea promoted by the US that trade talks will resume shortly. Now it may take the Trump-Xi meeting at the end of next month to resta… read more...

U.S. Industrial Production Down By 0.5% In April - Wall Street Hiccups

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 03:48:11:000

US industrial production was down by 0.5% in April reports the Federal Reserve . This caused a slight hiccup over on Wall Street : The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 158 points in early trading to 25,373, a drop of 0.6%. That wipes out much of Tuesday's recovery, sending t… read more...

The Best-Performing Small-Cap Stocks YTD: May 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 11:00:01:000

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF ( IWM ) tracks a basket of small-cap stocks including companies not typically part of large-cap broad market indexes like the S&P 500. Year to date, the ETF is up 15%, but still 10% below its all-time high set in August of 2018, which is in contrast to the S&am… read more...

Stability Breeds Instability

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 10:02:51:000

Its all fun and games until a single tweet throws a giant curve ball to global markets whom all but assumed a trade deal was inevitably going to happen last week. For those wondering why were seeing more & more of these flash crashes, I wanted to lay out a… read more...

Avoiding Turbulence May Lead To Better Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 09:42:19:000

Volatility is back on the rise. And along with it is investor skepticism. Those who follow the financial news on TV must have noticed the recent spike in multi-expert panel discussions about the "direction of the markets." Following a couple of rough weeks for equities driven by failed tra… read more...

Spring Crash Of 2019: Risk Is Very, Very Real

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 09:02:44:000

"The ground beneath you is shifting, and either you get sucked in by holding on to old ways, or you take a giant step forward by taking some risks and seeing what happens." - Bonnie Hammer There are certainties, there are probabilities, and there are possibilities. The role of every invest… read more...

April Residential Construction: Not Nearly So Positive As The Headlines

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 08:01:55:000

Introduction The headlines in this morning's residential construction report were certainly positive: permits increased by 0.6% and starts by 5.7% m/m. I've been looking for a bottom in housing, based on lower mortgage rates, so this is good news because the bottom in overall permits and sta… read more...

U.S. Private Domestic Sector Balance Books A -$223.8 Billion Deficit Through April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 07:44:43:000

The purpose of this article is to assess the macro fiscal flows for April 2019 and determine what effect these flows will have on the stock market and the economy. Macro fiscal flows impact investment markets with a lagged effect of typically one month. A flush of funds now from government s… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - May 16, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 06:12:39:000

The BCI at 258.1 is below last week's 258.4 and is below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 97.3. However, the six-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.2 is above last weeks 14.1. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to dro… read more...

U.S. Struggles To Strike A Less Strident Tone

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 05:11:23:000

Overview: Retail sales and industrial production disappointed in both the US and China prior to the end of the tariff truce declared by the US in a series of presidential tweets on May 5. The reaction function of the US to the drop in equities was to play down tensions on three fronts. First… read more...

We Will Have A Recession Within One Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 03:37:10:000

The financial news has been awash these days with fears of trade talks and concerns of economic decline and geopolitical worries. The basic fear which is at the back of many minds is the question of when and if we will have a recession. It is my belief that in the coming months, we will see a … read more...

Weekly Edge: What's At Stake For China As The Trade War Continues?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 03:02:29:000

By Ansh Chaudhary Since last Friday, President Trump's tweet threatening to raise tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of goods imported from China has been hanging over Wall Street. These tariff hikes are a response to what President Trump sees as China's reversal on a number of prior … read more...

Technically Speaking For May 15: This Rally May Be Suspect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 13:39:11:000

Weak coincidental indicator news. Retail sales were down .2% M/M but up .1% ex-auto sales. Remember that both numbers dropped sharply in December due to negative macroeconomic developments. Both are now higher so this month's modest increase/decline could be seen as a natural cooling off p… read more...

When Good Tariff News Meets Another 'Growth Scare'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 13:10:26:000

On Tuesday evening, I cautioned against the overriding tendency to couch the bounce in US equities in terms of "optimism" on trade. It's fine to explain a rebound in terms of a shift in the market narrative, but only if there is in fact a perceptible shift, and as of Tuesday, the outlook for… read more...

The Effect Of Trade Tariffs Upon Inflation Will Be More Than The Market Is Currently Estimating

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 11:29:23:000

An important effect of trade tariffs is, well, who pays them? There are a few alternatives available to us from theory. One is, the idea that Donald Trump, Robert Lighthizer, Peter Navarro put forward, the idea that it is the producers in those foreign countries. They either lower their profit… read more...

The New Chinese Tariffs: Looking At The Numbers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 09:34:29:000

There has been a lot of talk about the recent Chinese tariff hikes, but until now, I haven't seen too many quantitative estimates. Here's what the researchers at JPMorgan (JPM) and some others say. There's little effect on overall US GDP. A recent Yale/Berkeley/Columbia paper estimates a… read more...

Stock Markets Pay The Price For Trade War Threats

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 06:44:50:000

Original post By Stuart Burns The press has been all over the trade war-induced falls across stock markets. The New York Times reported this week that the S&P 500 was off 2.4% on Monday, the worst day since early January. In all, the S&P 500 is down 4.6% so far this month… read more...

Small-Business Confidence Rose In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 05:47:11:000

By Robert Hughes The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business rose slightly to 103.5 in April, up 1.7 points from 101.8 in March and 5.3 points below the all-time high of 108.8 in August 2018. The latest result extends a run of 29 consecutive month… read more...

It Ain't The Place Settings, It's The China

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 05:42:35:000

When you look at the markets, for the moment, the overwhelming concern is China. No one cares about the platters or the food or the silverware, just the China. Apparently, it is what you eat on, that is much more important than the food. This is often called "saving face" but in our current si… read more...

How Concerning Is A 90% Down Day

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 05:40:50:000

Lopsided Selloff On Monday Monday brought the first day in 2019 that featured extremely lopsided volume figures. Over 90% of NYSE ( VTI ) volume was associated with declining issues. We know a 5% correction falls into the normal and to be expected category. How concerning is a 90% down d… read more...

Angst Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 05:39:35:000

Overview Disappointing Chinese April data spurred speculation that more stimulus will be forthcoming and bolsters hopes that a trade deal with the US by the end of next month helped Asian Pacific equities advance for the first time this week. Indonesia, which reported a record trade deficit … read more...

Small Businesses Still Confident

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 05:09:10:000

Trade wars. What trade wars? While markets are freaking out about the latest tweets from the President related to trade tensions with China, small business owners are grinding away and becoming increasingly confident after sentiment took a hit late last year and earlier this year due in part t… read more...

Moody's Estimates Of Global CPI: Steady As She Goes At 0.5%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 14:00:52:000

We don't actually have an official estimate of global inflation - it's not a number that any of the official bodies cares to calculate for us. Thus we make do with what we get from the private sector forecasters, such as this from Moody's Analytics. Global inflation - measured as the consumer … read more...

Technically Speaking For May 14: Not Much Of A Rebound

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 13:42:21:000

The equity sell-off is global in scope: Upper left is the All Asia less Japan ETF; it started to drop at the beginning of last week when Trump said he'd increase tariffs on Chinese imports. It's dropped about 8%. Emerging markets (middle) started to drop at the same time and are off about 7%…. read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 13:07:01:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 13, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 17.78% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 13.61%. In third is France's CAC40 with a gain of 12.22%. Coming in last is India's … read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Tariff Turmoil

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 10:38:04:000

Sorry for the delay in publishing my weekly outlook for those that are regular readers. I'm back on schedule this week after a long week of travel. JOLTS report The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows us the relationship between job openings and the number of unemployed workers…. read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Equities Shake Off Monday's Concerns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 10:05:35:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:23PM EST Both domestic ( SPY ) and international stocks ( ACWX ) are putting on a strong recovery in Tuesday trade. Small cap stocks ( IWM ) have surprisingly had a rough go over things over the last several sessions, even though exposure to Chinese trade is argua… read more...

Stock Market Correction Risk Plausible On Trade War Reweighting

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 08:18:17:000

Last weeks minor adjustment to the value of the stock market has in my estimation incorporated just a small probability of a messier trade war. Fully pricing in risk for a full-scale trade war, including less predictable countermeasures from China, would likely be much costlier to stoc… read more...

Tales From The Casino, Part 1: Funds That Bet On Volatility Might SPIKE Volatility, Crashing The Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 07:23:04:000

It's a measure of modern financial markets' absurdity that bets on bets on bets have come to seem normal. Maybe acronyms like CLO and CDO make them sound scientific. Or maybe it's the sense that if Wall Street's "rocket scientists" create something it must be highly advanced and therefore bene… read more...

U.S. And China Play Trade Chicken, And Both Are Likely To Win

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 06:44:04:000

Global markets are in the midst of another panic attack that appears to be the direct result of an escalating game of trade-war chicken between the US and China. Who's likely to win? I believe the odds are in favor of the U.S. winning, especially since a trade deal with China to Trump's liking… read more...

Monthly Macro Monitor: The Tempest

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 06:06:43:000

The Trump administration raised tariffs last week from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and is considering tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese retaliated this morning, raising tariffs to 25% from 5% and 10% on various goods totaling $60 billion. Obvio… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Here We Go Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 05:58:23:000

Originally published May 13 For those of you keeping score at home, the S&P 500 is in the midst of the second longest stretch without a 3% correction in the last 10 years (source: Ned Davis Research Group). Although the action was certainly exciting at times last week, that streak rema… read more...

Technically Speaking For May 13; The Sell-Off Is Picking-Up Speed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 14:52:02:000

China announced it will retaliate against the U.S.'s tariff increase (emphasis added): But China showed it planned to counter his adversarial approach with its own penalties against U.S. companies. The Chinese government said it would impose tariffs on U.S. imports starting on June 1, w… read more...

Here's What Will Cause The Next Recession (Part 2)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 11:53:03:000

Each of the last three recessions contained elements of extraordinary financial instability. For example, Savings & Loan (S&L) institutions used federally insured deposits to make reckless real estate loans in the 1980s. When the Federal Reserve raised its overnight lending rate more t… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Implied Vol Up, But Still Pretty Reserved Given What's Happening In SPX

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 11:46:48:000

Market Intro CNBC: 2:41PM EST Sector SPDRs US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are giving back the victory lap from last Friday's massive rebound, as averages head lower (about 3% on the S&P earlier in the session). Spot VIX got a healthy dose of revenge after the into-the-w… read more...

The Time For Small Caps Is Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 09:18:57:000

Im getting tired of the US-China trade circus. Thats because the US has already won and its in Chinas best interest to not drag out any further. The proof of victory is best understood by appreciating that the US economy has put up another +3.2% GDP quarter wh… read more...

Recession Impending? What The Architectural Billings Index Has To Say

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 08:32:48:000

In an article published last December in 2018, I introduced the Architectural Billings Index ((ABI)) as a powerful indicator of future economic conditions and their subsequent impact on equity markets ( SPY ) ( DIA ). Reading that article in its entirety will provide an important backdrop … read more...

Fear Will Soon Reverse This Decline

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 07:38:03:000

For the first time in months, the stock market has shown a heightened sensitivity to negative geopolitical news. This has naturally raised concern among investors and has caused them to question the strength of the bull markets wall of worry. As Ill show in this… read more...

A New Economic Statistic To Consider - The World Uncertainty Index

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 07:24:56:000

Uncertainty is one of the big killers of business investment. Those animal spirits among businessmen that Keynes talked of - which drive the business cycle - are really just what people think about that near future. If all think it's going to be bad then little investment takes place. Given th… read more...

Charts Implying Economic Weakness - May 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 06:56:22:000

Please note: This is the latest in a series of articles, the last being " Charts Implying Economic Weakness - April 2019." U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site, there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially no… read more...

Investors Still Looking For New Balance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 06:53:23:000

Overview: The end of the tariff truce between the US and China has discombobulated investors. They had been repeatedly that a deal was close and there had even been talk at the US Treasury about where Trump and Xi should meet to sign the agreement. Now China was given around a month to capit… read more...

Spring Crash Potential Not About China

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 05:39:39:000

*Note: In early June, here at Seeking Alpha we will be launching a premium research service around the Lead-Lag Report which has been growing in popularity. You can view a basic version on in this article titled "Spring Crash Signs Grow ". The premium version will include trading signals base… read more...

Sector ETF Week In Review For May 6-10; The Defensive Tone Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 13:11:20:000

Let's begin with a look at the three-month performance table, which takes us back to mid-February. This is a very bullish, risk-on performance table. Technology leads, rising 12.41; consumer discretionary is up 9.86. With the exception of healthcare (off marginally), all sectors are up.The o… read more...

Implications Of An All-Out Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 12:19:04:000

"They do have a dual mandate, Larry. They do have a dual mandate." That's what CNBC's David Faber told Larry Kudlow on April 26, after the advance read on Q1 GDP showed the US economy growing at a 3.2% clip in the first quarter. That friendly reminder from Faber was necessary because i… read more...

Bubbles Are Beginning To Pop For Diamonds, Spiders And QQQ ETFs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 11:51:25:000

The weekly chart for Diamonds has been downgraded to neutral as the inflating parabolic bubble is popping. The weekly charts for Spiders and QQQ remain positive but overbought and still in inflating parabolic bubble formations. The weekly chart for the Transport… read more...

The Precarious State Of The American Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 11:43:01:000

Donald Trump does not understand the implications of his dangerous game of brinkmanship and the precarious state of the US economy. Let me explain. On the back of a strong employment report in April, with non-farm jobs rising by 263,000 and unemployment rate falling to 3.6%, and stronger-t… read more...

U.S. Producer Inflation Numbers Say The Fed Is Not Going To Raise Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 10:47:49:000

As with IHS Markit and their estimations of Federal Reserve policy in the near future, we can't see any great evidence of a coming significant rise in interest rates nor a change in policy nor forward guidance. Moody's Analytics looks at an entirely different measure to come to much the same… read more...

Style Box Update: Small- And Mid-Cap 'Value' Closes Performance Gap Vs. Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 09:55:45:000

"Value" hasn't significantly outperformed "Growth" since 2016 and even then it was only for a year or so. Is now the time where value investing comes back in vogue? Small- and mid-cap value sub-sectors are starting to perform better relative to growth. For large-cap, the growth outperforma… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - May 10, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 09:45:38:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. The market has taken a hit lately. Should we be worried? A look at the data might help. Chart of the Week - The China Trade War Standoff Market In just one week, the market has given up all of its gains, and then some, f… read more...

It's Here/It's There

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 06:49:09:000

It's here. It's there. It's Never-Never Land. It's Always-Always Land. It's why the markets are up. It's why the markets are down. It is the quintessential whipping boy for everything being bad. It is the angel in disguise when the equity markets go up. It is a belt and a road and the answer i… read more...

The Roots Of U.S. Stocks Outperformance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 06:44:38:000

Continuing the post-crisis trend, U.S. stocks have outperformed the rest of the world this year. Russ explains why. By most metrics, this has been a remarkable year for investors. Stocks are up more than 15%, their best start in decades. Nor is it just stocks. The risk-adjusted return (Sha… read more...

Recession Proof, Bull Market And More Of The Emperor's New Clothes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 06:09:17:000

This week the markets have been all about the on again/off again trade talks between the US and China and the latest updates from the Tweeter-in-Chief. The Volatility Index (VIX) is reaching a four-month high, which is seriously hurting all those who helped build up the record net short positi… read more...

Real Trade Balance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 11:42:13:000

By Spencer England The real trade deficit (million 2012 $) increased from $81,558 in February to $82,054 in March. The March observation was between the January and February data points so it was not large enough to generate a significant change in imports 0.58 percentage point contributio… read more...

A Different Kind Of Wage Inflation Heralds This Cycle's End

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 11:15:55:000

Towards the end of long expansions (this one is the longest on record) things get tight. Factories operate flat-out and start raising prices. Good workers become harder to find and companies start competing for them with higher wages and other perks. This story is about the "other perks" w… read more...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 06:15:47:000

By Jill Mislinski This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 146.9, up 0.5 from the previous week. Year over year, the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.61%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is … read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of May 6-10

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 05:46:39:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to see if we're at an economic "Turning Point." Conclusion: With the exception of … read more...

Weekly Commentary: Deal Or No Deal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 05:07:22:000

What went wrong? Clearly, all the positive talk from both the U.S. and China painted a much too rosy picture of trade negotiation progress. From the Wall Street Journal (Lingling Wei and Bob Davis): "The new hard line taken by China in trade talks - surprising the White House and threatening t… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: An Overbought Market Meets A Negative Headline

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 04:42:03:000

"Based on my own personal experience, both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past, rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise." - Martin Whitman The trading week started off on a negative note as the major indices all … read more...

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Assessing If Consumer Credit Outstanding Is A Headwind To Economic Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 04:22:00:000

This was a very light week for economic releases. My deeper look for this week is on consumer credit growth - which was little changed from last month. From my perspective, consumer credit growth is a double-edged sword. Too much credit growth will hurt future economic growth (when the deb… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Flight To Quality Improves Long-Term Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 02:47:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark … read more...

Big U.S. Stocks' Q1'19 Fundamentals

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 00:49:24:000

The US stock markets sure feel inflection at a major juncture. After achieving new all-time record highs, sentiment was euphoric heading into this week. But those latest heights could be a massive triple top that formed over 15 months. Then heavy selling erupted in recent days as the US-China … read more...

Why The U.S. Will Not Go The Way Of Japan: Banking

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 14:15:35:000

A number of writers and commenters on Seeking Alpha frequently predict that the US is about to go the way of Japan. They expect that the US will enter a long period of economic stagnation, marked by low inflation (if not deflation) and low economic growth, despite massive expansion of the mon… read more...

Trade Wars And Trade Deficits - The U.S. Deficit Is Up, Sadly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 12:35:48:000

We're all well aware that President Donald Trump thinks that a trade war is a good way to gain something, a war that is easy to win. That's all politics and not the correct subject to be discussing here. What we should be doing is thinking purely about the numbers and seeing what is happening … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: VIX Savagely Beaten Down As Markets Look For Resolution To Trade Dispute

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 11:33:21:000

Market Intro CNBC: Fri 3:01PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) endured a roller coaster day of trade on Friday as we approach the close. Spot VIX is down nearly 13% on the day. Trade tariffs were set in place as of midnight on Friday, causing a tumultuous dip in the early ses… read more...

Stocks May Have Further To Rise Despite Trade Tensions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 09:43:35:000

The recent stock market pullback may serve as a starting point for the next leg higher in the S&P 500 ( SPY ). It may result in a strong rally to follow, helping to push the index to around 3,200. Earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to grow in 2019 and 2020, and based on that gr… read more...

Another Metric Screams Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 09:40:09:000

Rhonda and Ben Lieurance relaxing in Elkhart. Source: The New York Times U.S. economic expansion has been aided by trillions in stimulus from the Federal Reserve. A large part of that stimulus has gone to big business and to help spur asset prices. We now appear to be at an inflection poin… read more...

Credit Quality Suggests Cycle Not Over Just Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 06:17:52:000

Non-Performing Assets Ratio Tends to Rise Ahead of Recessions With the yield curve briefly inverting in March, many investors are looking for additional data points that can help confirm (or deny) if a recession is indeed on the horizon. In addition to the 12 signals on the ClearBridge Reces… read more...

Moan Light Bay

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 06:17:25:000

My house is on a canal, just off the Intercoastal Waterway, in Fort Lauderdale. I am but a few blocks from the beach. As 4:00 PM struck the chimes yesterday, as the equity markets closed, you could hear the moans and groans and wailing and angst rolling forth from the houses and condos that su… read more...

The Economy And Fed Policy Find The Sweet Spot

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 05:48:32:000

By Peter Ireland The U.S. economy has regained momentum after a spell of financial-market volatility sparked fears of a slowdown or even a recession late last year. Real GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2019, surprising many analysts who expected a much weaker report…. read more...

May Economic Update: Just When Things Were Looking Up

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 05:39:28:000

By Mark Cliffe , Chief Economist and Head of Global Research of the ING Group Trade tensions return Just as pockets of optimism had begun to emerge in the global economy, trade tensions are back. President Trump has taken the trade war a step further with the imposition of fresh tariffs… read more...

Waiting For The Other Shoe To Drop

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-10 02:58:44:000

Overview: Contrary to hopes and expectations, the US made good on the presidential tweet and raised the tariff on around $200 bln of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. Trump indicated that the process that will levy a 25% tariff on the remaining Chinese imports has begun. Also contrary to expect… read more...

Assessing How The Economy Is Doing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 13:53:57:000

Yesterday, when I updated my Co-Incident Recession Indicator, I was surprised at the newest level of recession it indicated. A few months ago, the recession indicator was far from showing an imminent recession. (See my article from March 13, Are We Going Into Recession Soon? ). The latest rea… read more...

Technically Speaking For May 9

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 13:11:15:000

The China-US trade negotiation situation is "fluid". On the good news front, the administration has ruled it won't apply increased tariffs to goods that are in transit by Friday. This effectively delays the date of implementation by 2-4 weeks. And talks are still ongoing, which means a resol… read more...

What Could Go Wrong? The Fed Warns On Corporate Debt

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 08:29:26:000

So, if the housing market isn't going to affect the economy, and low interest rates are now a permanent fixture in our society, and there is NO risk in doing anything because we can financially engineer our way out it - then why are all these companies building up departments betting on … read more...

E-Mini S&P 500: Bearish Reversion Completed And Perfect Bullish Set In Place

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 07:00:46:000

In a recent interview, Patrick MontesDeOca, CEO and chief trader at the Equity Management Academy, outlined recent developments in the E-mini S&P 500. We published a report called "E-mini S&P Special Alert: Short Signal Activated at 2947.75" on Seeking Alpha on May 6 . "It confir… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - May 9, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 06:25:25:000

The BCI at 258.4 is marginally below last week's 258.6, and is below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 99.1. However, the six-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.1 is above last week's 13.7. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs… read more...

China Is Winning The Trade War Says S&P - IHS On China's Declining Exports And Rising Trade Surplus

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 05:49:08:000

China's trade statistics are out, and it's difficult to see who is winning or losing this trade war - other than consumers on either side of course. For Chinese consumers have to bear the costs of Chinese import tariffs and restrictions, American ones those imposed by the US. This before we ev… read more...

De-Risking As U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 05:23:14:000

Overview The end of the tariff truce between the US and China continues to dominate investment considerations. The truce was often cited in narratives explaining the recovery of equities from the Q4 18 slide. Ahead of the midnight US tariff hike, global equities are being smashed. Korea's Ko… read more...

Surprise!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 23:07:34:000

By Jerry Wagner Investors woke up Monday morning to the news that North Korea had fired a group of test missiles 200 kilometers into the sea over the weekend. Morning traders also had to deal with a new tweet from President Trump warning the Chinese that if substantial progress was not mad… read more...

Hiring Continues To Lag Growth In Job Openings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 22:53:59:000

In the recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey , the level of openings increased by 346,000, while job hires fell 35,000. Openings remain at a high level but began to decline starting in December last year. The fact that the hiring level is lagging the growth in openings is a sign compa… read more...

Vehicle Sales Fell In April, And Credit Card Debt Shrank In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 22:47:28:000

By Robert Hughes Sales of light vehicles totaled 16.4 million at an annual rate in April, down from a 17.4 million pace in March (see chart). Despite the drop, the pace of sales remains within the 16-18 million unit range that we have seen for much of the past two decades. Unit vehicle sal… read more...

Technically Speaking For May 8

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 12:51:15:000

The Fed released its latest Financial Stability Report. The report looks at four segments of financial market risk: asset valuations, business and consumer lending, leverage in the financial sector, and funding risk. Asset valuations are high and certain segments of the business sector are… read more...

It Is Inevitable

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 11:24:08:000

To me the most important engineering puzzle policy makers around the world have to solve for the years ahead is how to get the economic machine to produce economic well-being for most people when monetary policy does not work . Ray Dalio Economies are human constructs, not inevita… read more...

Global Auto Market Woes Persist According To IHS Markit

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 11:12:36:000

IHS Markit recently released four reports that cited major weakness in the global auto sector, a theme I have been highlighting for several months. IHS Markit published the Global Aluminium Users PMI, the Global Copper Users PMI, the Global Steel Users PMI, and the Europe Sector PMI. So… read more...

Sell In May: Now's A Good Time To Take Some Profits

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 10:21:08:000

Image Source The S&P 500/SPX ( SPY ) and stocks in general have been on fire so far this year. The S&P 500 gained 25% from its low in December to its recent high from a few days ago. Other markets like the Nasdaq are up by even greater percentages, 32% and more. The million-do… read more...

Is This A Goldilocks Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 10:13:39:000

Source: The Financial Times Each month I continue to ponder how long the current economic expansion can continue. The April 2019 jobs report showed total non-farm payroll employment increased by 263,000, exceeding Wall Street forecasts of 190,000. I assumed jobs growth would abate at som… read more...

Signs Of Slowing In ISM Manufacturing And Services

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 10:09:16:000

Let me start at the end. I am still bullish given the preponderance of the economic evidence. However, there are signs of slowing in some of the key economic reports that is worthy of further exploration. Now let me state some important disclaimers. I am not a perma-bull. Nor am I a fearm… read more...

A Confluence Of Concerns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 09:18:46:000

The economy is roaring, the stock market is at record-highs, the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, inflation is tame, we are drowning in monetary stimulus with a tax cut to boot, and borrowing costs are at historic lows. Everything is seemingly awesome! In fact, it can't get much better. … read more...

Spring Crash Signs Grow

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 06:45:24:000

People change and forget to tell each other. - Lillian Hellman This is the Lead-Lag Report for 5/8/19. Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other, with an interpretation of what underlying mar… read more...

Inflation: The Fed's False Flag

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 05:55:26:000

" Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining " - Clint Eastwood/The Outlaw Josey Wales On April 30, 2019, one day before the Federal Reserve's FOMC policy-setting meeting, the Wall Street Journal published an article by Nick Timiraos and Paul Kiernan entitled Inflation Is Likely to… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - May 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 03:33:59:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. The market has taken a hit lately. Should we be worried? A look at the data might help. Chart of the Week - The reaction to China Trade War In just two days, the market has given up all of its gains for the last month. As … read more...

Technically Speaking For May 7: It Looks Like We're Starting A Correction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 12:48:00:000

Markit released the latest round of PMI data . The best part of the release was China's composite PMI reading increasing 2.7 points to 52.7. While manufacturing is still barely positive (50.2), services increased 0.1 to 54.5. It appears that China's stimulus measures from 2018 have helped t… read more...

What The Fed Did At Its Last Meeting, April 30-May 1, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 12:37:40:000

This article provides an impact assessment of the FOMC April 30-May 1, 2019 meeting. Before the meeting, I wrote this report with details of all four of the major impacts. This is an update to follow up from the results of the meeting. At the meeting, the Fed left the headline Federal Fu… read more...

Technically Speaking: 'Trade War In May And Go Away'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 11:54:48:000

Over the weekend, President Trump decided to reignite the "trade war" with China with two incendiary tweets. Via WSJ: "In a pair of Twitter messages Sunday, Mr. Trump wrote he planned to raise levies on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25% starting Friday, from 10% currently. He al… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Investors Head To The Exits For A Second Day As Trade Concerns Hobble Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 08:16:17:000

Market Intro CNBC: 11:09AM EST Attached is the 24-hour chart on S&P 500 futures. US indices ( SPY , DIA , QQQ ) put on a rather stunning recovery in Monday afternoon trade, only to give it all back in the overnight session, with continuing red ink in Tuesday trade. Spot VIX has l… read more...

The Transitory Fed Moves Back Toward Its Asset-Price-Targeting Single Mandate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 06:54:13:000

(Source: AZ Quotes ) The Fed is playing a dangerous game of Russian roulette with President Trump. As it clings to its current policy stance, as an alleged signal of its independence, it is making some fundamental mistakes. It is also playing hard and fast with the data and the correspondin… read more...

Trade Tariffs Won't Wreck The Bull

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 06:52:05:000

Wall Street was caught off guard by President Trumps latest threat to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, as evidenced by across-the-board market decline at the start of the week. While many observers see the latest escalation of the trade war as being bearish for U.S. equities, the eviden… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 03:29:16:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 6, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 17.90% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.83%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.21%. Coming in last is India's… read more...

Saved By Zero: Earnings May Eke Out A Positive Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 03:09:28:000

By Liz Ann Sonders First, jobs Before I get to the subject at hand, I want to provide a quick update on last Friday's April jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Similar to the first quarter gross domestic product ((GDP)) report, the headline strength in the employment repor… read more...

Markets Steady As China Pushes Forward

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 02:58:04:000

Overview: News that the US tariff escalation did not scupper trade talks with China has helped the global capital markets stabilize today. China's Vice Premier Liu is still leading a delegation to the US. Most Asian equities recouped part of yesterday's losses, including China, Hong Kong, Ta… read more...

Peter Schiff: It's The Same Economy; Nothing Has Changed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 01:32:53:000

By SchiffGold April's jobs report came out better than expected. According to the Labor Department, the economy added 263,000 jobs last month. That came in well above the expectation of 180,000 jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, the lowest level since December 1969. But in his … read more...

These 3 Tech-Related Developments Either Make Perfect Sense Or None At All

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 16:03:20:000

Three very different things have caught my attention over the past few days when it comes to the tech sector: Breaking news. Q1/2019 earnings. IPO valuations. The interesting thing about these three unrelated pieces is that, while some investors think they make perfect sense, other… read more...

Stocks Trade As If Employment Is Everything And Manufacturing Is Nothing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 15:03:09:000

The Good 2019, thus far (Friday, May 3rd), is the best start to a year for stocks since 1987. Not only that the S&P 500 ( SPY ) index set another new all-time high this week, but we haven't experienced a drawdown greater than 2.48%. Furthermore, 103 consecutive months of job gr… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: SPX Tries Out 'Buy The Dip' On Trade-Related Sell-Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 11:26:37:000

Market Intro SectorSPDRS Spot VIX is up over 25% in Monday trade after President Trump rattled financial markets with two tweets indicating that enhanced trade tariffs against China were around the corner. US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ ) were down quite a bit in the overnight sessi… read more...

Where The S&P 500 Is Heading From Here? Three Facts And One Possible Conclusion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 07:32:45:000

(Please note that this article was written and submitted on Friday, May 3rd, morning, way before President Trump's recent tweets ) If one is looking at the major indices ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ), it certainly look and feel as if things never been better. That's is true not only due to… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Tips From Real-World Wendy Rhoades

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 07:13:45:000

It was a very busy week/weekend as I first attended NAAIM's (National Association of Active Investment Managers) annual conference. The conference was stellar, and it was great to hang out with so many like-minded investment professionals Sunday through Wednesday. I picked up some trading … read more...

April Employment Update: Confirms Expansion Outlook; S&P Fairly Valued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 05:57:38:000

Economic Composite I updated my economic composite to reflect the release of the U.S. Labor Department's employment report on Friday, May 3. The report showed a rise in non-farm employment of 263,000 in April. The number was well ahead of expectations of a gain of 190,000. Preliminary number… read more...

The Risk Of A US Recession And Bear Market Due To Trade War With China

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 04:05:00:000

The ongoing trade conflict between the US and China heated up on Sunday with a Tweet from President Donald Trump threatening an escalation of tariffs. The risk of a bear market for US equities is tied mainly to the risk of a US economic recession. This article will focus on the question of… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: There Is Certainly A Lot Of Bull In This Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 04:00:00:000

Just 5 months ago, many were quite certain the market was heading into the abyss. And, today, I am seeing comments like these: I am thinking my target of 4000 in 2019 and 5000 in 2020 is MUCH too conservative at this time. I'm thinking we can see the S&P near 100,000 by 2029- … read more...

Trump's Tariff Tweets Help Investors Discover Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 03:07:41:000

Overview: Reports that a US-China deal could be struck by May 10 before the weekend left investors ill-prepared for the presidential tweets yesterday that announced that the US was ending the tariff truce. Trump indicated that the 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods would be lifted to 25… read more...

Trump Tariffs Couldn't Come At A Worse Time

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 03:04:16:000

Last week, President Trump announced that tariffs of 10% on certain goods ($200 billion) would rise to 25%, and $325 billion of untaxed goods could face 25% duties "shortly". The Chinese stock market didn't like this news and dropped around 6%, while the U.S. stock market dropped 2%. In … read more...

No Melt-Up In May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 15:41:24:000

The term melt-up is being used with increasing frequency in financial circles this spring. In just the last few days alone, a few Wall Street analysts have mentioned the possibility for a runaway rally in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the coming weeks. In todays report… read more...

No, This Will Not Cause The Next Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 12:02:26:000

In a very well-written and thought-provoking piece , Gary Gordon has argued that the Federal Reserve deliberately stokes asset bubbles to spur economic growth and, in doing, creates a boom-and-bust asset value cycle which has caused the last two recessions. He inherently - though not explicit… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - If The Economy Is Great, Then Why Cut Rates?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 11:26:04:000

Construction Spending The chart below does not depict a strong economy. Overall construction spending slumped 0.9% in March, and February's increase of 1.0% was revised down to 0.7%. Spending has now declined for a second month in a row on a year-over-year basis (-0.8%), led by residential… read more...

At The Quarter Pole

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 09:59:56:000

The most critical thing to control for successful investing is your emotions. We all have our own relationship to money, and we react in our own unique way. In December we heard some groans from investors as they watched their returns slip away, but we also heard from some who were cheering ou… read more...

The Zombie Epocalypse: A River Of Denial Floods Markets Everywhere

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 09:16:35:000

The highest summit of irrational exuberance ever, which is not even seen by those engaging in it, establishes the perfect peak for the greatest global economic collapse ever. Some days the level of denial in the stock market twists my head into a knot - not because I am surprised at le… read more...

Never Hurts To Ring The Cash Register

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 08:44:09:000

Market Update & Review Fortunately, the market rallied on Friday as traders scrambled to hold important support levels following confirmation from Richard Clarida that the Fed has no intention of moving interest rates anytime soon. Via Bloomberg: CLARIDA: INFLATION PRESSURES MUTED, … read more...

Significant New All-Time Highs For Stocks Suggested By Recent Data

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 05:25:00:000

The Bureau of Economic Analysis ((BEA)) released its Advance Estimate of US GDP for the first quarter (Q1) of 2019 on Friday, April 26. Contrary to popular belief, the part of this report that has the most important implications for US equities is not the data on economic act… read more...

3 Things I Think I Think - Berkshire, Jobby Jobs And Chase Tweets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 04:00:42:000

It's almost Cinco de Drinko weekend, so hang in there for a few more hours. Or, if you're reading this on Sunday, salud! In the meantime, here are three things I think I am thinking about: 1. Buffett buys.zzzzzzzzzz. So, Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) bought some Amazon (AMZN) stock rec… read more...

Sentiment Speaks - What The Charts Say About A Possible 90% Drop In The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 04:00:00:000

The Dow Had An Incredible Run Over The Past 100 Years The Dow Jones Industrial Average has made an incredible run since lows that in 2009 during the last financial crises that struck the global economies. After hitting a peak of 14,198 on October 1st of 2007, the Dow fell some 54% to a low… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Why Are Investors So Foolish?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 04:00:00:000

Hubris is often on parade in the market as we approach long term market tops. History is replete with examples of such hubris as we have approached major market tops in the past. Now, before you run out to mortgage your home to short the market, keep in mind that we have only begun to see th… read more...

Steady Fed Policy Strengthens The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 12:18:08:000

Investors clearly werent happy about the Feds failure to lower interest rates at its latest policy meeting. Many participants were hoping to see a rate cut, and when this didnt materialize they reacted with a veritable temper tantrum by selling stocks. Yet as Il… read more...

Is An End To The China/U.S. Trade War Possible In The Next Week?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 11:24:39:000

In today's episode of Market Week in Review, Research Analyst Brian Yadao and Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman unpack so much economic data, it's a wonder we could fit it into a single video. China/U.S. trade dtente? How close are we? On the topic of the China/U.S. tra… read more...

Market Update: Jobs And Re-Pricing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 11:16:47:000

By OpenMarkets Today's jobs report reported not only solid job growth, but also subdued inflation, says Jack Bouroudjian. He discusses what this means for the Fed and markets, and how the technicals and fundamentals worked in this week's repricing in equities. Editor's Note: The s… read more...

ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower, But Continued Growth In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 10:13:48:000

By Jill Mislinski The Institute of Supply Management ((ISM)) has now released the April Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index ((PMI)), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 55.5 percent, down 0.6 from 56.1 last month. Today's number came in below the… read more...

March Monthly GDP Growth At 0.1%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 09:27:37:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 3, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . That's from Macroeconomic Advisers today. Turns out a bunch of monthly indicators have recently been released, including today's employment report. Here are some key ones followed by NBER's Busines… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Further Trend Toward Positive Numbers Could Signal A Renewed Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 05:00:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because, while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark y… read more...

U.S. Hiring Accelerated In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 04:57:35:000

US companies expanded payrolls at a sharply stronger pace in April, the Labor Department reports. Following a softer round of growth in March, nonfarm payrolls rose 236,000 last month - well up from the previous 179,000 gain. The pickup in growth pushed the one-year trend for private payroll… read more...

Central Banks Are Spawning A Zombie Apocalypse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 04:26:49:000

A zombie apocalypse is silently spreading across America. Indeed, across the globe. One-eighth of the United States are zombies now. Zombie companies , that is. Source: Amazon.com A zombie company is one that regularly requires large capital infusions in order to survive, or one tha… read more...

Strong April Jobs Report Reduces Recession Fears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 04:10:26:000

By Robert Hughes Payrolls in the United States rose by 263,000 in April, solidly beating an expected gain of 185,000. The healthy gain follows a solid 189,000 increase in March. Two strong monthly gains following the disappointing 56,000 increase in February shows the labor market remains … read more...

Bullish Sentiment On The Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 04:02:26:000

As the S&P 500 has been making all-time highs in the past week, bullish sentiment as reported by the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has risen back up to its highest levels since the start of April. The percentage of investors reporting an optimistic outlook rose to 39.02% from 33.52% las… read more...

Can High U.S. Profit Growth Continue?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 14:56:02:000

Since 1900, listed US companies have grown their earnings at just over 1% above inflation. Whereas, over the past 15 years - which includes the trauma of the global financial crisis - the median real earnings of companies in the S&P 500 grew by 6% a year. What are the likely causes of this… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of April 29-May 3

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 13:09:46:000

International Economic Releases of Note Asia/Australia China Markit PMI down from 50.8-50.2 South Korean Industrial Production +1.1% M/M/-.7% Y/Y South Korean Retail Sales +2.4% Y/Y South Korean Business Sentiment up 2 points South Korean exports down 2% Y/Y … read more...

Another Springtime Flourish: How Long Can The Bulls Last?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 10:45:42:000

Considering the challenges that May has historically presented for investors , perhaps its best that April went out with a bang. With last years market turmoil now a fading memory, investors weighed mixed economic signals and drove key equity indexes to all-time highs in Apr… read more...

The Unemployment Rate Does Not Signal A Recession: Update - May 3, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 10:21:43:000

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the April 2019 rate of … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Strong Jobs Report Sends SPX Back Toward All-Time High Territory

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 10:18:36:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:51PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) wasted no time in celebrating the strong jobs report for the month of April; the S&P 500 is once again bordering on all-time high territory. Spot VIX sank by a whopping 10% on the positive price action. Thought… read more...

April Jobs, Q1 GDP Mostly Allay Our Fears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 10:11:54:000

New York (May 3, 2019): The April jobs report printed at 263,000 new jobs. The consensus estimate had been just 181,000. Revisions for February (+23,000) and March (-7,000) netted 16,000 more jobs. The revisions resulted in average three-month job creation of 169,000 jobs and six-month… read more...

Failure To Communicate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 04:56:36:000

It took roughly six months for me to feel vindicated regarding my long-held contention that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's "plain English" (as he famously called it) approach to communicating with markets would end in tears. Right up until October 3, pundits and analysts celebrated Powell's "non-… read more...

Market Remains Overvalued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 04:50:13:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio ( more ) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divid… read more...

Not Only No Labor Shortage, Latest Labor Market Data Is Closer To Rate Cuts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 02:30:13:000

Originally published May 2, 2019 Yesterday, the FOMC altered its view of household spending and business capex. It wasn't a huge difference, they never are. Figuratively, these sorts of downgrades are little by little even though if things were ever to go the right way the language upgrade… read more...

Greater Clarity On Fed Policy, But Not On Financial Market Outcomes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 00:46:27:000

By John Fujiwara John Fujiwara explains why the Fed's policy pivot may infer more - not less - financial market uncertainty and why diversification matters in this environment. A central component of U.S. monetary policy over the past decade has been forward guidance, that is, transpar… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Will Volatility Make A Comeback?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 09:14:57:000

Market Intro CNBC: 11:48AM EST Seemingly invincible US equities ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are sustaining some damage for a second day, presumably based on comments from Chair Powell yesterday that were not sufficiently dovish for investors in risk assets. Spot VIX printed just below… read more...

Glass Half Empty Becomes Record Glass Half Full

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 07:07:23:000

Oh my! What a difference a few months makes. Originally, what looked like an economic glass half empty in December has turned into a new record glass half full. What looked like Armageddon in December has turned into a v-shaped bed of roses to new all-time record stock market highs for the S&a… read more...

The Great Stock Buyback Debate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 07:02:36:000

I recently wrote about stock buybacks in our weekly newsletter. However, a recent report from Axios noted that for 2019, IT companies are again on pace to spend the most on stock buybacks this year, as the total looks set to pass 2018's $1.085 trillion record total. By the numbers: C… read more...

ADP Payroll Is Up 275,000 - The Important Number Is In Friday's Labor Dept Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 05:51:16:000

The ADP report is a joint one with Moody's, trying to give a heads up on what the more accurate Labor Department report will be later in the week. Both survey payrolls to see who many people are employed, it's thus possible to work out how many jobs have been added. We like rising employment a… read more...

It IS Different This Time: Context And The Valuation Of Stocks III - Future Implications

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 05:34:57:000

This is the third of the articles I wrote on context and stock market valuations. The first article made the case that Shiller's PE10 has averaged well above its historic average for the past 30 years, and that occurrence is independent of corporate earnings growth rates, interest rates or i… read more...

Slow GDP Growth Is Very Bullish For Stocks At This Stage Of The Business Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 04:15:00:000

The Bureau of Economic Analysis ((BEA)) released, on April 26, 2019, its Advance Estimate of US GDP for the first quarter ((1Q)) of 2019. According to this report, US Gross Domestic Product ((GDP)) grew at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019. This was well… read more...

File This One Under, 'You Have To Be Kidding Me!'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 02:10:55:000

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 162.77 points Wednesday. Because the financial media feels compelled to explain every jiggle in the market the folks at CNBC proclaimed the "Dow drops more than 150 points after Fed's Powell dashes rate cut hopes." They went on to say that on one word … read more...

How Can We Thrive Against ZIRP And NIRP?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 00:54:44:000

On the radio show, David McAlvany , Chen Lin and Michael Oliver are this week's guests. Poor souls who become addicted to drugs or alcohol most often find the immediate pain of withdrawal far too great to discontinue their pathological behavior. To avoid pain, they continue behavior tha… read more...

Weekly Edge: Trump Urges Fed To Cut Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 23:28:27:000

Originally published on May 1, 2019 By Ansh Chaudhary The Federal Reserve ends its two-day meeting today. Chairman Jerome Powell will be discussing the economic outlook at a press conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ((ET)). As expected, the Fed won't be changing interest rates at this t… read more...

Median Household Income In March 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 21:11:01:000

After having dipped to $63,378 in February 2019, median household income in the United States rose to $63,425 in March 2019, an increase of 0.1%. The following chart shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January… read more...

Leveraged ETF Decays - Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 11:13:59:000

I measure once a month the decay of major leveraged ETFs. It may be useful for anyone using leveraged ETFs for investing, trading or hedging. Where does the decay come from? Most of the time a leveraged ETF does worse than the underlying asset leveraged by the same factor. This relative … read more...

Here's What Will Cause The Next Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 10:32:59:000

Financial professionals frequently opine that asset prices are a function of economic conditions. Assets like stocks, bonds and real estate rise in value when the economy is expanding. They fall in value when the economy contracts. The problem with those statements is that they represent a f… read more...

Is Powell Preparing Investors For A Rate Cut?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 07:46:54:000

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump. Source: NBC Financial markets continue to melt up, regardless of how corporate earnings perform. The S&P 500 ( SPY ) and Dow Jones ( DIA ) are up Y/Y by 11% and 10%, respectively. Both indexes are at or near their 52-week highs. The stren… read more...

Monthly S&P 500 Outlook For May 2019: Is It Deja Vu All Over Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 06:16:56:000

"But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one." - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional stock market models suf… read more...

This Signal Has Only Flashed 3 Other Times Since 1987

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 04:30:59:000

Rare Shift In NYSE Buy Signals A rare shift recently took place in the NYSE Bullish Percent Index. According to stockcharts.com : The Bullish Percent Index, or BPI, is a breadth indicator that shows the percentage of stocks on Point & Figure Buy Signals . There is no ambiguity … read more...

Major Asset Classes: April 2019 Performance Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 03:28:13:000

Global equities dominated the performance ledger for the major asset classes in April with solid gains. For the first time since last July, all the major slices of the world's stock markets - US, foreign developed and emerging markets - topped the winners' list for calendar month. At the f… read more...

Why Stability May Be Enough For Cyclicals

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 02:51:51:000

Can cyclical stocks continue to trounce defensives? Russ discusses. Cyclicals rule. After getting trounced in Q4, year-to-date more cyclically-oriented stocks and sectors have trounced "defensive," less-cyclically exposed names. The trend has been even more pronounced during the past month… read more...

First-Quarter Job Cuts Confirm Economic Weakness Spreading

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 02:39:58:000

The US Challenger jobs report this week offered some insight into our economic cycle as well as ongoing upheaval in the energy and automotive sector. US job cuts in the first quarter were 190,410, 10.3% higher than in the final quarter of 2018 and 35.6% higher than the same quarter last year. … read more...

A Buy-The-Dip Opportunity Is Coming

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 02:39:51:000

In a previous article, It's Just Fiscal , we pointed out the important effect that federal government budget balances have on the stock market at certain times during the calendar year. In this piece, we outline how fiscal flows driven by tax-remittances in the month of April are coinciding… read more...

Consumers Confident About Jobs Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 02:32:53:000

Consumer Confidence for the month of April was released earlier this morning and handily topped expectations, coming in at a level of 129.2 vs. 126.8. Despite the rebound, the headline confidence reading remains well off its cycle high reading of 137.9 from six months ago back in October. On… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: The Best Recession Ever

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 09:07:39:000

Originally published on April 29, 2019 I'm not sure who I borrowed the title of this week's missive from, but I think we all have to admit that this is probably the best recession/slowdown ever! Instead of the economy flirting with negative growth in the first quarter, which, if you will… read more...

Earnings May Eke Out A Small Gain

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 07:02:26:000

Earnings May Eke Out a Small Gain in the First Quarter! The S&P and NASDAQ both reached all-time highs on Friday, but the big news last week is that there may be a switch in leadership in the social media space. Previously, investors seemed worried that Twitter (TWTR) was purging some us… read more...

The U.S. Yield Curve Has Still Not Inverted

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 06:42:27:000

The 10-year Treasury closed at 2.50% on Friday while the 2-year note closed at 2.29%. That's a positive 2-10 spread of 21 basis points. As the classic measure of the slope of the Treasury yield curve, that means it has not yet inverted. It is true that the 10-year Treasury closed below some sh… read more...

Will King Dollar boost small caps?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 04:58:47:000

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit record highs this week, and the DJIA is just a handful of points away, the Russell 2000 remains more than 8% below its all-time high hit last August. More news on: iShares Russell 2000 ETF, Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares ETF, D… read more...

Technically Speaking: A Warning About Chasing This Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 04:52:19:000

This past weekend , we discussed the breakout of the markets to all-time highs. The question I asked this past weekend was simply: "The bull market is back, but can it stay?" When I was growing up, my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the … read more...

U.S. Enjoys Strong First Quarter, But Flash PMI Shows Growth Fading In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 02:45:01:000

The US economy grew faster than economists expected in the first quarter, but a robust pace of expansion had been signalled ahead by the PMI business surveys. The latter nevertheless suggest the pace of growth has weakened markedly at the start of the second quarter, according to the prelimin… read more...

What Should We Make Of Current Market Signals?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 02:20:29:000

For those foolish enough to pay attention to my predictions, here are a few thoughts on the current condition of the economy. First the data: 1.) Stocks hitting all-time record levels. 2.) The yield curve un-inverting, back to a normal slope. 3.) But 2-year yields remain below 3-month yi… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 02:06:09:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of the March data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about… read more...

Earnings Season Not Adding Up

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 02:05:34:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop Economic growth rates have been revised lower in recent months by economists and central bankers for countries around the world. Yet, the expected earnings per share growth rate for companies around the world next year has been rising for most of the past eight months a… read more...

Peter Schiff: What's Going On With The GDP?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 01:51:03:000

By SchiffGold The Commerce Department released the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth on Friday. It came in higher than expected at 3.2%. Somewhat surprisingly, the price of gold rose on the news and the dollar showed some weakness. The primary reason was presumably lower inflation. This me… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 29

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 12:59:47:000

So - what is Modern Monetary Theory, which seems to have taken a weed-like hold on the left's economy thought? I have yet to find a really good answer. The theory seems to center on the idea that the government's power to print money allows it to do so ad infinitum in order to support polici… read more...

I Guess I Hit A Nerve On The Spring Crash Of 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 09:48:10:000

Its interesting to read the comments. When a guy like this sticks his neck out with a call and then gets made fun of in the comments. This is a fabulous contrarian signal. Reminds me of the 2000 Nasdaq top. His timing may be off, but that's almost impossible to get ri… read more...

Options-Based Outlook For The U.S. Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 05:30:44:000

As readers of my posts on Seeking Alpha will be aware, I apply a quantitative model to options prices on index ETFs to derive market outlooks. Options prices represent bets as to the probabilities that a security will rise or fall by some amount over a specific period of time. By taking the ma… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - The Peak Rate Of Growth Is Behind Us

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 04:39:05:000

New and Existing Home Sales A combination of lower mortgage rates and declining prices helped boost new homes sales to an annualized rate of 692,000 in March, which is up 3% year-over-year and results in the best rate of sales since November 2017. This report continues to weigh positively … read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Will April Showers Grow The Market To 3000SPX?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 04:00:00:000

I am going to start this weeks article with a small lesson in market analysis. Whenever we approach the financial markets, we must recognize that there is nothing and I mean NOTHING that is definitive. Moreover, we must also understand that markets are not linear. … read more...

U.S. GDP Growth Accelerated In First Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 03:21:18:000

Economic activity increased in the first three months of this year at a substantially stronger pace than expected. Most models and analysts underestimated the 3.2% advance in output in Q1, which marks a strong improvement over the 2.2% rise in last year's Q4. Friday's update effectively puts… read more...

U.S. GDP Not All It Was Cracked Up To Be

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 01:56:37:000

You may be worried by my prediction that a recession will start sometime this summer is not looking too good. So was I after first-quarter corporate earnings started coming in better than what economists expected. Except that barely "beating expectations" is kind of pathetic when expectation… read more...

Old Vs. New

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 00:18:18:000

We said that a dull week was power to the bulls. We were right and the S&P 500 has reached a new closing high. The internals of the market seem to be diverging a bit from the positive path that the averages are on. The market seems to be a bifurcated one where big-name tech stocks are driv… read more...

The Dollar, Market Breadth, High-Yield Bond Market Health And The VIX

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 00:07:44:000

The S&P 500 closed within one point of September 2018 all-time last Friday. You'd have to think "everyone" is watching what happens this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback here since the S&P 500 usually takes a few tries to poke through a longer-term high. Market Bread… read more...

Goldilocks Gets A Check-Up: A Diagnosis, And Prognosis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-28 21:50:00:000

Background - just who is this Goldilocks, anyway? In a March 31 article, Trump's Right, The Fed Should Cut, But 'Goldilocks' Is Likely Anyway , I defined today's Goldilocks markets this way: … the Goldilocks scenario: interest rates behave well as the economy slows, but the economy w... read more...

Spiders Are Just Below Its All-Time Intraday High As QQQ Sets A Fresh All-Time Intraday High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-28 07:34:34:000

Today, I show the daily charts with their key technical levels. Heres Todays Scorecard A warning continues to brew on the weekly charts for Diamonds, Spiders and QQQ as their 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings are above 90.00 which I describe as an in… read more...

Better Than Expected Growth, But Not Yet A Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-28 06:51:20:000

First-quarter GDP growth surprised on the upside by posting 3.2% annualized growth. That brings growth over the previous 12 months to (also) 3.2%, and that is substantially better than the 2.3% annualized growth we have seen since the current expansion started in mid-2009. Still, it's nothing … read more...

The Bull Is Back... But Will It Stay?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-28 04:54:40:000

On Tuesday, the market broke out to all-time highs, but had failed to hold on to that level until a late surge on Friday. The breakout to "all-time highs" is something we have been discussing over the last several weeks both here and for our RIA PRO subscribers with Technology leading the ch… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: How To Watch The Information Avalanche

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 21:32:58:000

The calendar is massive, and it comes at a crucial time. I have never seen so much fresh information in a single week: the biggest economic reports, the heart of earnings season, and an FOMC meeting. And that is without any Washington surprises. It is a week where we should be paying special… read more...

This Week In Money - April 27, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 21:24:02:000

Ross Clark Stock markets, gold, oil. Eric Hadik 40 year cycle, equities. Ted Dixon Stalled energy projects, tax reform. Larry Reaugh - President & CEO of American Manganese Inc. Craig Goodwin - President, Director and Foun… read more...

The Path Forward

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 20:27:28:000

The U.S. stock market hit new highs last week continuing to climb on a on a wall of worry while most other markets including China declined. It remains clear that both the U.S. and Chinese economies have accelerated while the economies of Europe and Japan remain stuck in the mud, in desperate … read more...

Q1 GDP... Don't Break Out The Champagne Quite Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 11:47:55:000

This April 26th morning we received the first estimate for Q1 2019 GDP, and it looked at first glance to be considerably better than was expected, with the economy expanding at a 3.2% annual pace versus consensus expectations for 2.3% and growth of 2.2% in Q4 2018. Just don't break out the cha… read more...

Weekly Economic Release Summary - Did The New Panama Canal Locks Affect USA Transport Analysis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 09:30:16:000

On 26 June 2016, the new larger locks were opened in the Panama Canal. These new locks not only doubled the capacity of the canal but also raised the maximum ship size from 110 ft. wide, 1,050 ft. long, and 41.2 ft. deep to 180 ft. wide, 1,400 ft. long, and 60 ft. deep. According to the Fi… read more...

REIT Investors: The 5 Investment Rules You Should Know

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 06:00:00:000

REITs have a long history of producing market-beating returns along with high dividend payments and only moderate risk. Therefore, most investors understand that they should invest in REITs whether it's for: High current income. Long-term appreciation. Inflation protection. Or dive… read more...

GDP: Deja Vu

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 04:58:01:000

Real GDP growth in the United States during the first quarter of 2019 was much better than expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis ((BEA)) estimates that total economic output expanded by 3.12272% in Q1 over Q4 2018. Most analysts were expecting somewhere around 2.3% to 2.5%. Considering mou… read more...

A Tale Of 3 Cycles

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 04:46:08:000

Risk assets have staged a remarkable rebound from dark days of December, but how long can the rally last? In taking a macro approach to the cyclical outlook for asset markets, I often use this simple framework: There are three main macro factors for markets - the business cycle, the liquidit… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Most Hated Bull Market Continues With New Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 04:15:35:000

"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves." - Peter Lynch The wait is over as the S&P 500 reached new highs this past week and is up 17+% for the year. The Nasdaq Composite… read more...

The Goals Of Passive Investing: Uncomfortable Facts And Surprising Myths

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 04:15:00:000

A large portion of people who attempt to follow the passive investment philosophy including many of its vocal promoters - dont actually understand what this investment approach is designed to achieve, much less what it actually accomplish for the individuals that employ it. … read more...

Weekly Commentary: Officially On 'Periphery' Contagion Watch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 03:45:56:000

This week saw all-time highs in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq 100, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Microsoft's (MSFT) market capitalization reached $1 TN for the first time. First-quarter GDP was reported at a stronger-than-expected 3.2% pace. So why would the m… read more...

This Is The End Of The Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 03:26:51:000

Both new households and new businesses are in secular decline. Goosing the stock market and GDP doesn't change this reality. Everyone wants every cycle of expansion to last forever, but alas every cycle ends. The growth cycle that began in 2009 is finally coming to an end. The signs are … read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Improving Trend In Data Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 02:53:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark … read more...

Technically Speaking For April 22-26: The Markets See Slower Growth Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 13:24:10:000

Key Economic Statistics (with links) Emerging Market Brazil business confidence falls to 61.9. Brazil payrolls drop 43,000 Turkish consumer confidence increases 4.1 points to 63.5 Turkish business confidence up. Turkish capacity utilization up .7 to 75%. Mexi… read more...

Contain Your Enthusiasm: Both Leading Components Of Q1 GDP Declined

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 11:00:57:000

Introduction By and large, the quarterly GDP report is like a minute examination in the rear-view mirror. It tells you in great detail where we've been, but with several important exceptions, which I'll discuss below, little about where we are going. In the "where we've been" department, r… read more...

Greenback Consolidates Ahead Of Q1 GDP

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 06:41:16:000

Overview: The equities are finishing softly after the rally stalled in the middle of the week. The large markets in Asia fell, led by China, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third session, the longest losing streak in two months. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 ended an eight-day adva… read more...

Investing In High-Flying Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 02:26:48:000

S&P 500 and Nasdaq power to record closing highs as some of the biggest American companies posted stronger-than-expected quarterly profits. But are these record levels justified? And can corporate earnings continue to grow? Kim Parlee talkes to Phil Davis, founder of philstockworld.co… read more...

The U.S. Government Debt Crisis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 02:14:28:000

This article explains why the US Government is ensnared in a debt trap from which there is no escape. Its finances are spiralling out of control. In the context of a rapidly slowing global economy, the budget deficit can only be financed by QE and bank credit expansion. Do not draw comfort fr… read more...

Market Update: Looking For A Pattern

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 02:05:33:000

By OpenMarkets In earnings season, traders look for a pattern. The re-pricing of assets now has many market watchers re-evaluating their expectations for earnings, says Jack Bouroudjian. He also covers how the yield curve and strong U.S. dollar play into the latest rally. Editor's … read more...

Durably Sideways

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 01:27:09:000

Next month, in the durable goods series, the Census Bureau will release the results of its annual benchmark changes. In May 2019, the agency will revise the seasonal adjustments going back to January 2002. Unadjusted data will not be, well, further adjusted. None of this, apparently, will in… read more...

Markets Wrestle With Late-Cycle Crosswinds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 00:59:08:000

By Philip Lawlor, head of global markets research In a rare tug of war, both equities and government bonds have rallied this year as financial markets wrestle with the implications of a synchronized global slowdown. In our April equity market overview, we dissect the main issues underlyi… read more...

Durable Goods Orders Show Strength In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 00:09:17:000

By Robert Hughes New orders for durable goods jumped 2.7 percent in March, boosted by a 31.2 percent surge in nondefense aircraft and a 17.7 percent gain in defense aircraft. Because of the large per-unit price and the tendency for buyers to place orders for multiple aircraft at once, both… read more...

Market Cycles And The Give-Back Phase Overdue

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 00:03:00:000

To recap: some $15 trillion in central bank liquidity injections (blue line below) helped drive record share buybacks and the price of US stocks this cycle (S&P 500 in red) to all-time highs on most historically relevant valuation measurements into the fall of 2018, before prices plunged i… read more...

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF: International Equity Exposure

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 14:14:18:000

The Global Economy The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ( EFA ) provides exposure to the global economy for investors or traders who wishes to be long the international developed markets based portfolio with no exposure to the U.S. or Canada. Specifically, the fund has an EAFE composition and offers co… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - April 25, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 05:45:14:000

The BCI at 257.7 is above last week's upwardly revised 256.5, and formed a new high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 12.9 is above last weeks upward revised 12.0. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recess… read more...

Eternal Bullishness And Willful Blindness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 05:08:14:000

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had their highest closings on record Tuesday, regaining ground lost in last year's rout. Stocks have flourished under a more accommodative Federal Reserve. In January, the central bank said it would hold interest rates steady, setting in motion the stock ma… read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report: 25th April, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 04:37:01:000

The US economy continues to show signs of stabilizing at a slower pace of growth, based on a broad set of economic and financial indicators. Although the possibility of a recession can't be ruled out in the second half of 2019 and beyond, the risk of economic contraction remains low at the mom… read more...

How Long Til Bulls Lose Control?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 04:18:17:000

You can control two things: your work ethic and your attitude about anything. - Ali Krieger This is the Lead-Lag Report or 4/24/19. Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other, with an interpreta… read more...

Equities Waver, The Dollar Does Not

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 04:06:24:000

Overview After closing at record highs on Tuesday, the S&P 500 slipped yesterday, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 snapped an eight-session advance. Asia followed suit, with the Shanghai Composite posting its biggest loss (~2.4%) in over a month. It is off about 4.6% this week - which, if sus… read more...

Weekly Edge: S&P 500 And Nasdaq Hit Record Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 03:33:19:000

Originally published April 24, 2019 By Ansh Chaudhary Tuesday, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached record highs, beating the previous records set in late 2018. Trade tensions have eased - as have worries of interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, which contributed to a signif… read more...

Why Do Rich Capitalists Suggest Destruction Of Capitalism?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 03:19:11:000

Jeff Deist , Eric Coffin and Michael Oliver are returning guests on this week's radio program. Many billionaires - Ray Dalio, Warren Buffett, and Bill Gates among them - like to call for higher taxes on people such as themselves. But this raises a compelling question: would they have be… read more...

Peter Schiff: The Bigger The Boom, The Bigger The Bust (Video)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 01:56:33:000

By SchiffGold During the New Orleans Investment Conference, Peter Schiff participated in a panel discussion with Ben Hunt and Mike Larson. They talked about bubbles, booms and busts. Hunt called it the "bubble of everything." But he said the "gravitational force" created by all of t… read more...

Still Out Of Whack

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 01:05:07:000

Back in 2010, we introduced a new way to visualize how out of balance the U.S. government's spending had become with respect to the typical income earned by U.S. households. To do that, we plotted the U.S. government's spending per household against median household income, but that wasn't… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 24

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 12:40:11:000

The Bank of Canada maintained rates at 1.75%. Their policy announcement made two key observations (emphasis added). Global economic growth has slowed by more than the Bank forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report ( MPR ). Ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts has under… read more...

All-Time Stock Highs: Why Modest Risk-Renting Will Outshine Extreme Risk-Taking

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 10:07:29:000

There has been a great deal of media hype surrounding new all-time highs in the U.S. stock market. For that matter, there has been a fair amount of puffery when it comes to how well stocks are performing overall. In actuality, we have seen similar levels for the S&P 500 twice before. The… read more...

New Stock Market Highs: What To Expect In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 10:04:09:000

The S&P 500 stock index is up by 17 percent in 2019, it's best yearly beginning since 1987. The NASDAQ index is up by 22 percent in 2019, it's best yearly beginning since 1991. The S&P 500 stock index closed at 2,933.68 yesterday, a new historic high, exceeding the previous high hi… read more...

S&P 500: Sentiment Getting Complacent

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 08:42:43:000

It's been a wild ride since the Christmas Eve lows, and the S&P 500 ( SPY ) is now back within striking distance of its all-time highs. From a breadth standpoint, this move is being confirmed by an all-time high recorded in February for the NYSE Advance-Decline Line. The problem short-ter… read more...

Matt Maley Gives His Take On Companies Beating Earnings Expectations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 08:03:28:000

Watch Matt Maley, Equity Strategist at Miller Tabak, talk earnings season on Morning Trade Live with Oliver Read more … read more...

Dollar Bloc In Focus, While Germany's IFO Disappoints

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 05:24:17:000

Overview: The record high close for the S&P 500 failed to lift global equities. Far East trading was mixed. The Nikkei opened strong and closed weaker, while the Shanghai Composite began softer and closed firmly. Australian shares and bonds rallied on the back of mild inflation, while th… read more...

First Quarter 2019 Market Insights

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 02:45:00:000

Read more … read more...

Trade Risks That Could Rattle Markets: NAFTA Withdrawal, Auto Tariffs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 01:54:32:000

While we believe that optimism regarding an evolving and eventual trade deal between the U.S. and China is well-placed, we would caution investors against growing complacent about trade policy risk more broadly. Other trade actions could weigh on markets and pose a headwind to U.S. economic g… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 01:49:28:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 23, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 29.74% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.88%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.22%. Coming in last is Indi… read more...

Was The GFC A Once-In-A-Lifetime Event?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 01:42:09:000

Someone emailed me with a very good question yesterday: "Did we really go through a once-in-a-lifetime Great Recession in 2008, or is the global economy overleveraged to an even greater extent, just in different ways?" My basic view of the Great Financial Crisis is that it was not unique… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 23

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 12:52:10:000

So - what can we expect from Friday's GDP report? James Picerno offers this chart: I personally find it funny that the Atlanta Fed's tracker has increased from below 0.5% to its current reading of 2.8% while the NY Fed's number has decreased from 2.3% to 1.37%. This just shows how diffe… read more...

False Recession Stories Persist

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 12:30:23:000

People think in stories, not facts and figures. The dominant story during Q4 of last year, was one of imminent recession, and one which we tried to counter with facts and figures that showed the economy was still a long way from excess. Expansions and bull markets do not end with a whimper. … read more...

A Look At The Market's Weak Spots

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 08:40:16:000

In the last few weeks, Ive put great emphasis on the strongest performing areas of the stock market in this report. Today, however, well take a look at the weakest areas of the market which deserve our attention, including healthcare and retail. While many commentators have rec… read more...

Hopes For Greater 5G Internet Speed Lift The Market Higher

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 04:45:34:000

The Dow reached a 7-month high last Thursday and Nasdaq topped 8,000 on Wednesday as both indexes (and the S&P 500) are only a little over 1% below their all-time highs, set last fall. The biggest news last week was that the Apple ([[AAPL]]) and Qualcomm ([[QCOM]]) settlement on Tues… read more...

Technically Speaking: Running On Empty

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 04:24:36:000

Running On Empty "Running On Empty" was an iconic song about life on the road as a traveling musician. The 1977 live recording, which became a 1978 hit for Jackson Browne, is considered one of true representatives of Heartland Rock and a concert favorite. When Jackson Browne was interviewe… read more...

Oil Extends Gains While Markets Await Fresh Incentives

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 03:58:28:000

Overview Financial centers that have been closed for the extended holiday have re-opened, but the news stream is light and market participants are digesting developments and positioning for this week's central bank meetings and the first look at Q1 US GDP. The US decision to end exemptions t… read more...

Direct U.S.-China Trade Contracts 9% In First Year Of Tariff War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 01:59:03:000

Published last week, data for February 2019 saw the combined direct trade loss between the U.S. and China expand to $5.2 billion, as the trailing twelve-month average of the value of trade between the two nations has shrunk as a result of the tariff war that began on March 22, 2018. Sinc… read more...

The Coming Profit Collapse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 01:48:40:000

When real earnings have reached the current extreme in the past, a massive decline in earnings has followed. The bottom in earnings might come in the next recession in as little as two years, or it might take a couple of recessions and take ten years to reach the bottom. Businesses are more … read more...

What The Russell 2000 Can Tell Us About The U.S. Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 01:36:39:000

By Scott Bauer At a Glance As engines of job growth, small and mid-size companies like those found on the Russell 2000 can provide economic forecasting. A new, smaller futures contract tied to the Russell could change the way traders approach the index. The Russell 2000 Index is… read more...

Q1 2019 Equity Manager Report: The Pendulum Swings Back Toward Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 01:08:32:000

By Patrick Egan The first quarter of 2019 saw a mixed bag of results for equity managers, according to our manager research team. Challenging environments were the story of the quarter for U.S. large-cap equity managers and Canadian and Japan equity managers. Managers of Australian equitie… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 22

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 12:27:26:000

Automation is " splitting the US labor force in two ": Automation is splitting the American labor force into two worlds. There is a small island of highly educated professionals making good wages at corporations like Intel or Boeing, which reap hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit p… read more...

Better Days: Leading Indicators Inch Back To Cycle High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 10:56:34:000

By Liz Ann Sonders Most regular readers know I keep a close eye on leading economic indicators, with the most widely-watched index put out by The Conference Board on a monthly basis. Its Leading Economic Index ((LEI)) has 10 components, all of which (obviously) are economic indicators th… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Intraday Vol. Is Giving Stocks The Green Light

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 09:15:39:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:15PM EST Spot VIX started the week off on the high side of its five-day range, but quickly gave up ground as S&P futures recovered from their overnight lows. Small caps ( IWM ) are down about half a percent as we head into Monday's afternoon session, but most … read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Is 'Melt-Up' The Operative Word?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 08:20:42:000

We've been talking lately about the idea that big hedge funds and systematic traders have been caught on the wrong side of the stock market's recent run for the roses. The thinking is this fact alone could account for the lack of downside volatility and the relentless dip-buying that has been … read more...

The Pace Of U.S. Money-Supply Growth Slows To A Crawl. Is This A Major Problem For The Stock Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 03:28:16:000

Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on April 22, 2019. A popular view is that the Fed has given up on monetary tightening and as a result the stock market should continue to trend upward over the months ahead. This view is based on flawed reasoning. The reality is that … read more...

S&P 500 Mostly Flat In Holiday-Shortened Week 3 Of April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 03:27:28:000

If investors are in any rush to push the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) above the record-high closing value of 2,930.75 it set back on 20 September 2019, they didn't betray any sign of it during the Good Friday holiday-shortened third week of April 2019, as the index mainly drifted sideways during… read more...

Surge In Oil Punctures Holiday Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 03:12:28:000

Overview: With many centers closed for the extended holiday, the calm in the global capital markets has been punctuated by reports that the US is considering ending its exemption for eight countries to have bought Iranian oil over the past six months. The waivers were to end on May 2, but pr… read more...

Expected Equity Market Returns For The Next 10 Years (Part 2)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 03:08:38:000

Part 1 here What will equity returns be for the next 10 years? There is a time-honored tradition on Wall Street where highly respected and well-compensated strategists offer their visions about where the market is headed in the future. They don't just predict the direction of the mar… read more...

Drink The Wine

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 01:53:24:000

We hope that you had a chance to read our latest Quarterly Letter: Be Your Own Master The New Retirement . The key to saving enough to retire is in deferring consumption. We have always been more of savers, and working on Wall Street tended to help with deferring cons… read more...

Diamonds, Spiders And QQQ ETFs Set 2019 Highs And QQQs Set A Fresh All-Time Intraday High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 09:34:31:000

Today I show the daily charts with their key technical levels. Here's Today's Scorecard Please ignore any media outlets that tout new all-time closing highs! This is totally misleading and an outdated analysis since the early 1980s. A warning continues to brew in the weekly chart… read more...

Why Stock Market Investors Should Be Extremely Cautious For The Remainder Of 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 08:41:42:000

Originally posted on April 15, 2019. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Most Disrespected, Unloved And Disbelieved Secular Bull Market Since The Last One

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 03:42:19:000

That was an apt description of the sentiment surrounding the early years of the secular bull market that ran between 1982 and 2000. The bears thought they'd put the last nail in its coffin after the Dow Jones Industrials posted a 170% gain in the five years between 1982 and 1987, only to colla… read more...

6 Events To Watch Next Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 03:25:41:000

The divergence thesis that drives our constructive outlook for the dollar received more support last week than we expected. A few hours after investors learned that Japan's flash PMI remained below the 50 boom/bust level, Europe reported disappointing PMI data as well. And a few hours after … read more...

Quick Look At Healthcare Headed Into Q1 '19 Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 03:10:30:000

Every Thursday night, Bespoke publishes a YTD return for all 11 sectors of the S&P 500, and last Thursday night's bar chart shows that the Healthcare sector was now negative for 2019 YTD, dramatically underperforming the S&P 500 YTD. Using IBES by Refinitiv actual earnings and revenu… read more...

The Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 02:28:00:000

The Fear Of Missing Out Over the last couple of weeks, we have been discussing the market's advance from the lows and why retesting old highs was quite probable. To wit: "While the bullish bias is definitely behind investors currently, there are concerns relative to the current ris… read more...

List Of 24 Points Pressing Hard Toward Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 02:02:45:000

The US stock market is slightly overbought (which is not a positive in terms of head room for more of a rally). It's massively built up on debt that is now more expensive to maintain and/or obtain. The Fed is still rapidly tightening money supply and says it will continue to do so for se… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: Why Is The Market So Quiet?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 22:34:30:000

The economic calendar is light so attention will again focus on Q1 earnings reports. Non-financial news will, no doubt, take center stage. The biggest market story seems to be the lack of action, as shown in our updates below. That might be fine for you and for me, but not for the punditry. Th… read more...

Looking Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 22:07:16:000

Paix et Prosprit's success has been our ability to anticipate and react to change while keeping an eye towards the future. We structure our portfolios after in-depth top down and bottom up research and being patient enough to profit as it all unfolds. We tend to buy early, anticipa… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - April 19, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 06:58:53:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. April has been an unusually quiet month in the stock market so far, with daily price changes well below their long-term averages, and the volume of trading on the decline. What does it mean and why am I watching it? One poss… read more...

Let's Talk About The Next Recession: Our Plan Of Action

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 06:01:00:000

If you are confused about the future outlook of the economy, then no worries, you are by no means alone. On one hand, we are getting increasingly dovish statements from the Fed and market experts. On the other hand, we just witnessed another surprisingly strong jobs report with +196,000 addi… read more...

What 3 Ingredients Are Contributing To The Current Strong Global Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 03:19:46:000

In today's episode of Market Week in Review, when Head of AIS Business Solutions Sophie Antal Gilbert was joined by Quantitative Investment Strategist Dr. Kara Ng, they laid out the three ingredients which are contributing to the current strong global economy. The need for Goldilocks co… read more...

Big Earnings, Rate Decisions And U.S. GDP Once Markets Return From Holiday

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 03:08:05:000

By Ed Moya The US dollar ended the week higher after mixed data and earnings reports provided a slightly optimistic tone for the US economy. With thin conditions persisting due to the observance of Easter, choppy price moves could be expected over the next couple of sessions. All eyes will… read more...

Searching For Stimulus

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 02:46:06:000

By Joseph Joyce The global economy seems headed for a slowdown. The IMF now expects global growth this year of 3.3%, a drop of 0.2 of a percentage point from its previous forecast. Growth in the advanced economies is projected to be particularly feeble, with expected U.S. economic growth… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Key Updates For The Holiday Weekend

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 02:20:58:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark yo… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Full Capitulation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 02:03:32:000

April 16 - Bloomberg (Rich Miller and Craig Torres): "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have made an important shift in their strategy for dealing with inflation in a prelude to what could be a more radical change next year. The central bank has backed off the interest-… read more...

Weekly Economic Release Summary - Industrial Production Signals Slower Economic Growth In Q1 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 01:47:14:000

Manufacturing growth in the U.S. continues its decline, and year-over-year growth for capacity utilization has all but disappeared. Seasonally-Adjusted Capacity Utilization - Year-over-Year Change - Seasonally Adjusted - Total Industry (blue line) and Manufacturing Only (red line) This wee… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: While The Uptrend Pauses, Earnings Season Is Off To A Good Start

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 22:39:24:000

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett This week's price action was more backing and filling, leaving investors looking at a sideways pattern. The S&P 500 closed at 2,907 on Friday April 12th, and at the end of trading on Thursday, it closed the week at… read more...

'It's Very Simple': Fata Morgana (Redux)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 19:57:09:000

Most people familiar with my musings are aware that I harbor grave reservations about the over-democratization of markets. Plain vanilla index funds that offer investors low-cost, broad-based exposure to benchmark equity indexes are obviously a great thing and balanced funds which pair that … read more...

Technically Speaking For April 15-19

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 13:26:16:000

Economic Releases of Import (with links) Emerging Market Turkey Turkish unemployment rises to 14.7% Turkish industrial production down 5.1% Turkish retail sales down 4.9%. Brazil index of economic activity indicates Y/Y GDP growth of 2.49 Indian wholesale… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - It's A Credit Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 12:03:59:000

Industrial Production Industrial production was expected to increase 0.3% in March, but it fell 0.1%. After declining two months in a row, the manufacturing component was also expected to increase 0.3%, but it was unchanged. Manufacturing was dragged down by a 2.5% decline in vehicle produ… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of April 15-19

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 09:14:13:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading and coincidental economic numbers to see if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to see if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." Leading Indicators The leading labor m… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: The New Regime

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 03:55:39:000

The Federal Reserve has entered a new period of policymaking. Federal Reserve officials have never been in a position like they are now. Going forward, it is going to be trial and error. Financial markets and financial institutions are going to have to watch closely and liste… read more...

Holiday Note

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 02:50:01:000

Overview Many financial centers are closed today. These include Australia, India, most European markets, and the US. In Asia, equity markets that were open moved higher. The Nikkei, which gapped higher on Monday, rose 0.5% today for a 1.5% gain on the week. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0…. read more...

U.S. Weekly FundFlows Insight Report: Large Seasonal-Related Outflows For Money Market Funds For The Fund-Flows Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 01:05:41:000

For the first week in four, investors were overall net redeemers of fund assets (including those of conventional funds and ETFs), withdrawing $44.6 billion for Lipper's fund-flows week ended April 17, 2019. However, the headline numbers are misleading. Fund investors were net purchasers of eq… read more...

Individual Investors Remaining Neutral

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 21:37:19:000

Last week, bullish sentiment as indicated by the AAII's weekly survey of individual investors came in at the second highest level of the year at 40.29%. Declines this week seemed to have weighed on bulls as the percentage of investors reporting as bullish fell to 37.56%. That is back below t… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down Another 5K

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 21:08:23:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending April 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 192,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since… read more...

An Apparent Rebound From The Government Shutdown 'Mini-Recession,' But Then What?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 18:15:42:000

Introduction A few weeks ago, I wrote that it looked like we had a mini-recession in the December-February time frame, in which case we should expect a rebound thereafter. We got data apparently confirming both of those points this morning, contrasting recent weakness with … read more...

Has The Market Reached A Double Top?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 16:59:22:000

Source: USA Today The S&P 500 has just staged one its most powerful short-term rallies in years. The most widely watched U.S. stock index is now up by about 24% since the December bottom. Yet, with the market approaching new all-time highs, there is increased speculation about a poss… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Is The U.S. Economy On The Mend?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 08:02:46:000

Market Intro CNBC: 10:30AM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) continue to display a narrow, though not comatose, price band. Broadly positive earnings reports have permitted the indexes to continue trading at the high end of their respective trading ranges. Spot VIX ever so bri… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - April 18, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 06:32:57:000

The BCI at 255.9 is above last week's upward revised 254.5, and formed a new high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 11.7 is above last weeks 11.1. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to d… read more...

Replacing LIBOR

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 04:52:36:000

By David Blitzer LIBOR - the London Interbank Offered Rate - is the benchmark for over $300 trillion of loans, derivatives and other financial instruments. LIBOR started in the syndicated loan market of the 1960s; today it is quoted in different currencies and maturities. Following scandal… read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Equity Market Report April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 04:20:00:000

Read more … read more...

Reality Vs. Fantasy: What To Watch For This Earnings Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 04:01:17:000

Just recently, David Robertson ran an article discussing the deviation which has grown between "fantasy" and "reality" in the investing markets. " The phenomenon of extreme differences is also increasingly appearing in financial numbers, which are the life blood of markets. Andrew Smithers… read more...

EMU Disappointment Lifts The Dollar

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 03:35:47:000

Overview: A bout of profit-taking in equities began in the US yesterday and has carried through Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in five days, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a six-day advance. The Nikkei gapped higher to start the week and… read more...

Is Inversion Panic Justified?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 02:52:01:000

By Scott Krauthamerax In recent weeks, the US yield curve has been making investors nervous again. The curve has inverted before each of the last seven recessions, and it did so again on March 22. But what does an inversion really mean for equity returns? The yield curve simply tracks ho… read more...

Stocks Have Not Priced In The Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 02:44:09:000

By Bob Iaccino At A Glance Without an end to the U.S./China dispute, equity indexes may not stay at current levels. Earnings remain the final domino in the trade war relationship with stocks. The United States/ China trade war has been a leading story in financial news for over a… read more...

Market Update: Leadership In The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 01:40:05:000

By OpenMarkets How will the market respond to early earnings reports? Jack Bouroudjian discusses the concept of leadership in the market to give an idea. Look at leadership in the market and try to understand if leadership is giving us a hint where the market might be in th… read more...

Why We May Be Headed For Another 'Volatility Event'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 00:43:05:000

There are a number of factors that make the current mania in risk assets unique. Most notable may be the breadth of extreme overvaluation not just within the equity market but across a number of other asset classes. The incredible reach for yield we have seen, driven by the lowest interest rat… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 17: Small-Caps Continue To Underperform

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-17 12:40:05:000

The Fed released the latest Beige Book , which contained the following description of the U.S. economy (emphasis added): Economic activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April . While most Districts reported that growth continued at a similar pace as the previous… read more...

Green Shoot Or Domestic Stall?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-17 08:31:12:000

According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve's Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For th… read more...

This Better Be One Heck Of A Trade Deal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-17 06:20:48:000

I can't help but think that the pending trade deal with China, which has been long on sizzle, will be extremely short on substance. We have been getting the sizzle day after day since the beginning of the year, as if it were a scene from the movie Groundhog Day. Bill Murry keeps waking up ea… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Down 0.1% In March, Annual Revisions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-17 04:03:45:000

By Jill Mislinski Note : This commentary has been updated to incorporate the March data for Industrial Production. From the report: The annual revision to industrial production and capacity utilization was published on March 27, 2019. Data referred to in the release dated March 15,… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Higher Rates Are Likely Over The Next Few Months

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-17 04:00:00:000

Note: This was published for my members over the past weekend. As I have written many times before, I believe that the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. In fact, you can read my last article on the matter right here , as it explains this perspective using many historical exampl… read more...

April Business Conditions Monthly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-17 02:00:11:000

By Robert Hughes AIER's Leading Indicators index falls to the lowest level since the recession. AIER's Leading Indicators index dropped 17 points to 25 in March, the lowest level since June 2009. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index also fell, to 83 … read more...

Peak Margins: A New Earnings Headwind

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-17 00:29:48:000

By Brian Demain, CFA, and Philip Cody Wheaton, CFA Portfolio Managers Brian Demain and Cody Wheaton share their insights on the headwinds driving margin compression and what it could mean for stocks. As a new earnings season kicks off, U.S. companies face a fresh challenge to earnings … read more...

Can The Stock Market Rally Continue?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 23:12:44:000

A bumpy ride for stocks in 2018 sparked fears that the next recession was around the corner. But this year, we're seeing a different story play out. Stocks have rallied. The question is, what's behind the rally and can it last? On this episode of The BID, Chief Equity Strategist Kate M… read more...

Long-Term Stock Market Sentiment Remains As Lopsided As Ever

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 23:08:31:000

By Pater Tenebrarum Investors are Oblivious to the Markets Downside Potential This is a brief update on a number of sentiment/positioning indicators we have frequently discussed in these pages in the past. In this missive, our focus is exclusively on indicators that are of medium… read more...

Can Central Banks Still Be Effective?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 22:40:18:000

Originally published April 15, 2019 By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Also, six global issues to watch this week Last week was a momentous one for central banks - the minutes from the March Federal Open M… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 16

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 12:37:26:000

Boston Fed President Rosengren gave a presentation yesterday titled, "Monetary Policymaking in Todays Environment: Finding Policy Space in a Low-Rate World". In it, he noted that, unlike Feds of the past, the central bank now has to contend with weak inflationary pr… read more...

10 Scary Charts - April 16, 2019, Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 10:54:36:000

Please note this post is the latest update to a series of articles, the last being " 10 Scary Charts - January 16, 2019 Update ." I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous … read more...

Technically Speaking: Drive For Show

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 04:45:52:000

Drive For Show In golf there is an old axiom: "Drive for show. Putt for dough." This past weekend, Tiger Woods completed a comeback on Sunday by capturing his fifth Master's title and his 15th major tournament win. It was a victory that snapped a decade-long championship drought and in… read more...

The Dollar And Stocks Catch A Bid

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 03:50:43:000

Overview: Amid light news, global equities are moving higher In Asia, the Nikkei rose to a new high since early December, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3% and posted its highest close since March 2018. European equities are solid, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 moving higher for the fift… read more...

Corporate Stock Buybacks Rise 59% In First Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 02:47:10:000

Even though the S&P 500 is off to its strongest start in almost a decade, Lipper reported that stock mutual funds had outflows of $39.1 billion in the first quarter. Some of these outflows could have been attributable to ETFs capturing more market share, but another major reason for the ma… read more...

One Order Of BS For The U.S. Labor Market, Please

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 00:19:23:000

The 'strongest economy, ever'… Despite a decade-long experiment with record-low interest rates, despite trillions of dollars in deficit financing, and despite headline unemployment numbers staying at/near record lows, the U.S. economy is not in a rude health. In fact, by two key metrics of... read more...

The Survivors' Guide To The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 00:06:30:000

Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1. - Warren Buffett Buffett personally lost about $23 billion in the financial crisis of 2008, and his company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), lost its revered AAA ratings. If Warren Buffett, one of the most s… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 23:58:25:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 15, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 28.9% gain, and in second place is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 18.62%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 17.47%. Coming in l… read more...

The Long-Term Stock Market Message From The VIX

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 22:41:14:000

Stocks vs. Expected Volatility The VIX (VIX) measures the markets expectation of future volatility. We can think of the S&P 500/VIX ratio as a way to track confidence in stocks and earnings relative to confidence the market will be volatile. The S&P 500/VIX ratio is current… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - April 15, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 22:10:00:000

Read more … read more...

Technically Speaking For April 15

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 12:47:24:000

Seeking Alpha is chock full of great analysis, some of which I try to highlight in my weekly summary . However, one of the drawbacks to publishing on Friday afternoon is that I can't cite people who publish over the weekend. Thankfully, this week's column from Jeff Miller contains a key … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Has Secularly Low Vol Played A Role In Lower Measures Of Inflation?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 11:27:13:000

Market Intro CNBC: 2:42PM EST Spot VIX ( VXXB ) remains anchored in the 12-range while US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) hand back some of last Friday's gains. Thoughts on Volatility One aspect of negotiating change in the terms of trade between the US and other nations relates … read more...

The 3 Best Arguments Contra An Economic Slowdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 09:26:52:000

Introduction I like to think that one of my core strengths is transparency. If I make a mistake, I don't hide it, but rather explain it and try to learn from it. Even if I think I'm right, if there are decent countervailing arguments, I want to acknowledge them. In that vein, since last Au… read more...

Wage Growth May Not Prompt Powell To Act

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 08:26:15:000

Source: Financial Times How long can economic expansion continue? The March 2019 jobs report implies the economy remains on solid footing. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 196,000, exceeding the 177,000 economists were expecting. The increase widely surpassed the 33,000 job… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: About That 'Retest' Thing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 08:25:01:000

Last week, we reviewed Marko Kolanovic's research showing the positioning of hedge funds and systematic traders. The bottom line here is the equity exposure of these managers continues to be at very low levels relative to history. But with the stock market indices a chip shot away from all-tim… read more...

The Market's Misread Of The Fed's Minutes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 05:48:15:000

Last week, the Federal Reserve released its March FOMC meeting minutes. Following the release, the markets surged higher as the initial reading by the markets was "the Fed is done hiking rates." As the Wall Street Journal reported in Fed Minutes: Officials See Little Need to Change Rates Th… read more...

Redemption Monday

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 05:11:26:000

Overview: The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow, tentative start. The surge of the S&P 500 before the weekend failed to inspire today. Asia markets were mostly firmer, led by Japan, while China, Hong Kong, and Singapore moved lower. The Nikkei gapped higher, jumping above the 22k l… read more...

Improved Outlook For Global Economy Boosts S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 05:04:54:000

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) continued its upward trajectory in the second week of April 2019, where it is now within 24 points, or 0.1%, of its previous peak of 2,930.75 set back on September 20, 2019. The thing that boosted the market the most during the week was the news on Friday, Apri… read more...

Why The Next Leg Of This Bull Market Could Take Stocks Much Higher

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 02:10:28:000

Source: Financial Trading The SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) is now around 24% above its December lows, and is on the verge of breaking out to new all-time highs. New highs seem inevitable, but moreover, the S&P 500 and stocks in general should continue to rally, and may achieve substa… read more...

The Wolf Street Report: April 14, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 01:06:18:000

A stock market that is so uniquely dependent on corporations buying back their own shares in record amounts is in a very fragile position because share buybacks have a history of suddenly getting slashed when times get tough. And then, who'll be the buyers? (11 minutes) Editor's Note: … read more...

Diamonds, Spiders, QQQ Remain Poised For New All-Time Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 09:10:39:000

Today, I show the daily charts with their key technical levels. Heres Todays Scorecard Please ignore any media outlets that tout new all-time closing highs! This is totally misleading and an outdated analysis since the early 1980s. A warning is starting to … read more...

The Dollar's Technical Picture Turns More Nuanced And The Significance Of The Gaps In The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 04:58:26:000

The US dollar fell against most of the major currencies over the past week. The yen and the Swiss franc were the exceptions. The technical correction we anticipated last week may have some more room to run. However, we do view it as a counter-trend move and expect the data to show the US e… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Equity Markets Showing Shades Of 2015

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 04:00:00:000

A Weak December Leads To A Never Ending Rally The market action from the December lows has been painful for those under positioned and unkind to Bears. After bottoming at 21,712 at the end of December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has since rallied more than 4,500 point… read more...

Portfolios And Investing: If/When 'Winter' Is Coming?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 03:25:06:000

By Erik Norland The Northern Hemisphere, home to 90% of the world's population, is celebrating the arrival of spring. But, be warned: "winter" is coming, and not just for fans of HBO blockbuster Game of Thrones . After a multi-year Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening cycle that turned the yi… read more...

Make Stock Buybacks Illegal?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 02:04:15:000

Markets Climb Above 2,900, All-Time Highs Next Stop? Over the last couple of weeks, we have been discussing the market's advance from the lows and why retesting old highs was quite probable. To wit: "The markets are close to registering a 'golden cross.' This is some of that technical '… read more...

This Week In Money - April 13, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 21:45:33:000

Ross Clark US equity markets, and oil. Wolf Richter Bullish stock market, the automotive sector, collapsing real estate bubbles. Danielle Park Shorting Canadian banks, TSX Composite Index Larry Reaugh - President & CEO of American Mangan… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: What Will Q1 Earnings Reports Tell Us About The Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 21:29:13:000

The economic calendar is normal and includes some important reports. Despite this, the data will be overshadowed by Q1 earnings reports. With opinion sharply divided on future economic prospects, many will want to know how companies are doing and what their leaders think. They will be asking: … read more...

Europe - The Can Kicking Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 21:01:36:000

You would think that Britain could reach a decision. You would think that the European Union could reach a decision. Obviously, both incorrect assumptions. It reminds me of Greece and then Italy just keep kicking the can along. The end-date was March 29 and then extended until April 12. Now … read more...

Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 20:56:36:000

The key question facing investors is whether global growth will accelerate or stagnate from this point onward. Our view remains that growth has already bottomed in the United States and China but not in Europe, Japan and most of the emerging markets. Managements are running tight ships so we… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of April 8-12

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 04:46:59:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to see if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." Long-Leading Indicators As w… read more...

Weekly Commentary: The Perils Of Stop And Go

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 04:23:19:000

China's Aggregate Financing (approximately system Credit growth less government borrowings) jumped 2.860 billion yuan, or $427 billion, during the 31 days of March ($13.8bn/day or $5.0 TN annualized). This was 55% above estimates and a full 80% ahead of March 2018. A big March placed Q1 growth… read more...

China Beats Expectations And Brexit Avoids The Cliff Edge, What Does It Mean For Markets?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 04:06:42:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, U.S. Institutional Senior Director Rob Cittadini and Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman discuss recent economic data from China, the Brexit deadline extension, and the contrasting impact on global equity and fixed-income markets. C… read more...

Market Update: Earnings Setting The Tone

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 03:55:42:000

By OpenMarkets Earnings numbers are setting the tone for what could be "a very solid few weeks of trading," says Jack Bouroudjian. Next week, earnings will give a snapshot of the entire S&P 500 with healthcare, banking and technology companies reporting. Jack discusses why earning… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Lower Interest Rates Have Not Filtered Through To Most Shorter-Term Metrics

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 02:54:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark y… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: April 2019, It's Deja Vu All Over Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 02:53:34:000

"The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the "Active" to the "Patient"." - Warren Buffett The week started with the S&P keeping its positive streak alive by posting a gain for the eighth straight session. That came to an end on Tuesday when the tone of investors changed… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Watch The Rate Of Inflation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 10:03:45:000

Factory Orders Factory orders are feeling the brunt of the slowdown in global trade. These orders, which show the dollar amount of new orders for durable and non-durable goods, fell 0.5% in February. January's increase of 0.1% was revised down to unchanged. Orders for durable goods decli… read more...

Weekly Economic Release Summary - Soft Economic Growth Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 08:29:36:000

The economy is like a river - overall it is flowing downstream. But there are eddies which move counter to the general direction of the river; some sections move faster or slower than the general (average) speed of the river. It is possible by cherry-picking data points to "prove" the economy … read more...

Fantastic Friday - Pre-Market Boost Turns The Week Positive

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 06:40:08:000

At 4am the week turned positive in the Futures. A bit later, it was announced that Chevron ( CVX ) was buying Anadarko ( APC ) for $33Bn AND CVX will spend another $5Bn buying back 2% of their own stock. That's pumping up the energy sector into earnings season as APC is getting a 44% premium… read more...

Is Now A Good Time To Buy The Vanguard Real Estate ETF?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 06:35:18:000

In the context of generalized stock market weakness and growing concerns about the health of the real estate market, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF ( VNQ ) suffered serious losses in the fourth quarter of 2018. But the recovery has been equally impressive in the past several months, and the ET… read more...

The Next Recession Just Got Closer

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 05:46:10:000

Introduction The risk of a new recession increased recently, and its proximity became closer. I don't make predictions about exactly when the business cycle will turn down, other than to say that my model now tells me that it will probably happen sometime within the next six months. This a… read more...

Charts Implying Economic Weakness - April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 05:13:52:000

Please note: This is the latest in a series of articles, the last being " Charts Implying Economic Weakness - March 2019." U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site, there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially no… read more...

Euro Bid Above $1.13 For The First Time This Month

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 04:26:49:000

Overview: The consolidative week in the capital markets is drawing to a close. Equity markets are narrowly mixed. In Asia, most indices outside of the greater China (China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) edged higher, leaving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slightly lower on the week. The MSCI Emerging … read more...

Negative Equity Flows Indicative Of A Cautious Investor

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 02:30:21:000

A little less than a month ago, I wrote a post noting weekly flows into equity mutual funds and ETFs had turned decidedly positive, and in fact, were the largest inflows looking back an entire year. I rhetorically pondered if the increase in equity flows was a sign equity markets were toppin… read more...

The Recession Obsession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 01:49:26:000

By David Baskin It is hard to open a newspaper or listen to a business report without hearing the word "recession." Suddenly, everybody is worried that the economy is about to go into the tank and that we will all become poor, or at best, poorer. I think it is worthwhile to look at the top… read more...

Initial Claims Drop To The Lowest Level Since 1969

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 00:43:01:000

By Robert Hughes The latest weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 8,000 to 196,000 for the week ending April 6. That is the lowest level since 1969. The four-week average, calculated to help reduce volatility, fell 7,000 to 207,000. Measured as a percentage of total e… read more...

The Fear Of Missing Out

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 09:18:57:000

Every bull market has an expiration date, which is why last week's magazine cover from Barron's reminded me to remain defensive. This cover encapsulates the kind of unbridled optimism and disregard for risk that I have seen near previous market tops. It doesn't tell us when a top is in place, … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Stocks Play The Waiting Game, And They're Not Alone

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 09:16:24:000

Market Intro CNBC - 11:49AM EST S&P 500 five-day futures chart Try though it may, the US stock market ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) is having difficulty moving much at all over the past week. Spot VIX looks to be setting up to foray into lower handles. Yesterday's release of the… read more...

Why Investors Should Obsess Over Risk, Not Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 09:07:37:000

Defense is 10 times more important than offense. You have to be very focused on protecting the downside at all times. These are the wise words of hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones. His mantra seems a bit counterintuitive, considering an enviable track record that has made him best kn… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - April 11, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 07:03:00:000

The BCI at 254.4 is above last week's downward revised 253.4, and formed a new high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the six-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 11.1 is above last weeks 10.6. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp need… read more...

Inflation Report Bullish For Stocks And Bonds, But Trouble Looms In 2020

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 06:51:57:000

According to the report released on Wednesday, April 10, 2019, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics((BLS)), the Consumer Price Index (all items) increased 0.4% in March compared to a 0.2% increase in February. Over the last 12 months, the headline all items index increased 1.9% … read more...

Believe The Market, Not Economists

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 05:33:20:000

Economists and analysts continue to paint a dark picture for the U.S. economy and financial market outlook in 2019. Not a day passes without a dire warning crossing the news wires, and this week alone has seen some notable examples of this negative sentiment. In todays report we&#x2019… read more...

How To Pick Winning REITs And Avoid Landmines (My Strategy Revealed)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 05:15:00:000

The REIT market is very vast with more than 200 names representing well over $2 trillion worth of properties in the US alone. This can get overwhelming at first. What makes it even more difficult is that each REIT is very unique in its structure, investment strategy, targeted proper… read more...

Is It Too Soon?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 03:12:09:000

By Jerry Wagner My wife related this morning that my niece, Kendell, wrote this weekend on Facebook inquiring whether she had made a mistake packing away the winter clothes of her four children last week. The week before, the temperatures had been in the 60s. "But is it too soon?" she aske… read more...

Market Yawns At Latest Brexit Extension

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 02:58:53:000

Overview: The S&P 500 closed higher yesterday for the ninth session in the past ten, but the coattails are short and global equities are trading with a heavier bias today. A firm CPI reading in China took a toll on local shares with the Shanghai Composite, shedding 1.6%, the most in more… read more...

Weekly Edge: All Eyes On Fed Minutes And Megabanks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 02:28:24:000

Originally published on April 10, 2019 By Ansh Chaudhary The CEOs of some of the largest U.S. banks are in Washington today to testify to the House Financial Services Committee. The hearing was called by the Democrat-led House to review the impact of banks since the financial crisis ab… read more...

Back Where We Started? Equities Rebound But Risks Remain

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 13:06:21:000

By Sharon Fay Global equities rebounded sharply in the first quarter from the sell-off in late 2018. But conditions remain shaky and caution is warranted. Investors should pay close attention to policy-related risks when considering their allocations. During the quarter, the MSCI World I… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 10

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 13:00:13:000

Economic data is cutting both ways right now. To some extent, this is a natural function caused by the large amount of financial data available. However, it seems as though the bifurcation between bullish and bearish data has simply become more pronounced over the last 6-9 months. Guy DeBell… read more...

Stock Market Outlook - Waiting For A Dip To Buy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 09:24:21:000

The stock market seems to be going up without any interruptions. Fundamentals however are in some cases much weaker than in 2018. Nonetheless, expectations are still low and there might be a scenario that continues to reward traders even after the most recent rally. In this article, I am going… read more...

Putting The Cart Before The Horse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 06:03:03:000

By Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy It's all about the data, with the jobs report being front and center. But what happens when the data doesn't fit into the Treasury (UST) market's narrative? We've gotten a glimpse of this recently, so here are some observations. While the … read more...

U.S. Q1 GDP Estimate Ticks Up, But Growth Outlook Remains Muted

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 05:59:56:000

Revised nowcasts for the US economy edged higher in recent days, but the Bureau of Economic Analysis is still expected to report a slowdown in growth for the first-quarter report on gross domestic product ((GDP)) that's due on April 26. The "advance" GDP report is expected to show that outpu… read more...

Why We Are Overweight Caution

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 05:07:07:000

There are multiple signs that the global economy is weakening. Starting with the FED's GDPnow model, which is projecting ~2% GDP growth, down from the 3-4% reached in previous quarters. Source: FRED Similarly the IMF is cutting its global growth outlook to the lowest since the financial … read more...

JOLTS Weakness, But A Month Is Not A Trend

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 04:10:41:000

The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed a drop in openings of 538,000. Commentary on the February report used terms like plunged and disaster. Admittedly, the decline in openings should not be dismissed out of hand; however, it has not been an unusual occurrence for openin… read more...

NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimistic In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 03:50:26:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out on Tuesday morning. The headline number for March came in at 101.8, up 0.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 80th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com fo… read more...

The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 03:32:11:000

By Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world. One year later, much has changed. The escalation of US-China trade tensions, needed credit ti… read more...

Stronger Survey Data Quashes Recession Fears For Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 03:16:47:000

Equity market sentiment has performed a sharp U-turn in recent weeks. Above-consensus purchasing manager's (PMI) data in China and the US has for now at least quashed earlier concerns of a US recession. We are encouraged by the recent improvement in the data, which is arriving a little ahead o… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 9

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 12:46:44:000

How good was Friday's employment report? While most analysts (myself included) breathed a sigh of relief when we say Friday's headline number, David Rosenberg was less than impressed. On Twitter, he noted that job losses in retail, transportation, and manufacturing were signs that that job… read more...

140 Years Of Stock Market Activity: 2 Fundamental Facts Arise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 12:27:44:000

I became a self-directed investor seven years ago and have followed what I consider to be a disciplined approach to dividend growth investing. This approach has evolved over time as I have continued to learn from the excellent articles published on Seeking Alpha and other online sources. In re… read more...

Just As Forecast, The Leading Sectors Of The Jobs Report Have Declined

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 06:51:02:000

Introduction: Ive been forecasting a slowdown in the leading job sectors For the past few months, I have been forecasting a jobs slowdown. That has been based in part on the natural progression of a downturn in long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, and finally to co… read more...

March Employment Update: Growth Outlook Intact; S&P Fairly Valued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 04:21:35:000

Economic Composite I updated my economic composite to reflect the release of the U.S. Labor Department's employment report on April 5. The report showed a rise in nonfarm employment of 196,000 in March. The number was ahead of expectations of a gain of 175,000. Preliminary numbers for the pr… read more...

Beware Of Concluding That Recession Must Quickly Follow Inversion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 03:40:23:000

By Ashwin Alankar, Ph.D. & Myron Scholes, Ph.D. Myron Scholes, Chief Investment Strategist, and Ashwin Alankar, Head of Global Asset Allocation, argue that market conditions do not currently support the contention that the U.S. economy must soon be headed for contraction after 3-mont… read more...

Real Phillips Curve Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 02:42:59:000

Here are a couple of charts comparing real wage growth and unemployment. My contention is that the Phillips Curve is real, not inflationary. It only appears to be inflationary when monetary policy is procyclical. When unemployment is low, real wage growth is higher, largely because of better m… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 02:35:57:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 8, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 31.62% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 19.68%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 16.61%. Coming in last is Tokyo'… read more...

International Stocks Off To A Strong Start In Q2 Despite A Heavy Fog Of Uncertainty

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 02:26:24:000

By Bill Witherell, Ph.D. Global stock markets are continuing to advance following one of the best first-quarter performances in years, with the global iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) gaining 14.9% year-to-date April 5 th . That increase includes strong advances in US stocks. Excluding the US … read more...

Are Stocks Cheap Or Expensive? Weekly Rant And The Week In Review 4-7-19

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 01:42:26:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Markets Dodge A Bullet. Maybe.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 01:25:40:000

Real interest rates are breaking upward. In my trading experience, time horizons - even for position trades - were always relatively short. Trends were measured in hours, days maybe. Never years. That was then. This is now. There are two decades-long trends worth examining now that could… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 8

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 12:43:46:000

As regular readers know, I've been less than enthusiastic about this latest rally, due to the under-performance of the micro, small, and mid-cap indexes. As a counter to that argument, consider this chart that's been making its way around the Twitter-verse. TopDown Charts highlighted it in t… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Lackluster Spill In US Equities Leaves VIX Unimpressed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 11:04:33:000

Market Intro CNBC: 2:21PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ ) are more or less trading sideways as they make another attempt at trading near all-time highs, although the Russell 2000 ( IWM ) still has considerable ground to make up in order to make the full road to recovery. Spot VIX i… read more...

Diamonds, Spiders And QQQ ETFs Are Close To New All-Time Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 10:58:37:000

Today I show the daily charts with their key technical levels. Here's Today's Scorecard Please ignore any media outlets that tout new all-time closing highs! This is totally misleading and an outdated analysis since the early 1980s. SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE… read more...

The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 10:50:09:000

Note: The previous monthly update can be seen in the March 14 article titled, " The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - March 2019 . " There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don't agree with the methodologies employed … read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs: The Economy Is Great, Cut Rates!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 09:14:12:000

Construction Spending We must be filling every pothole nationwide, because there isn't a whole lot of spending growth outside of the public construction of streets and highways, which is up 22.8 percent year over year for the first two months of 2019. Perhaps, the president passed his own in… read more...

So The Fed, Interest Rates, & IPOs Walk Into A Bar

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 07:43:25:000

While we are a bottoms up, fundamental research shop, we attempt to occasionally address macro issues and concerns. We will avoid social and certain political matters. Our goal is attempt to provide some insights into our unique investing philosophy, strategy and process. As always, we will … read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Is There More Upside Ahead?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 06:14:33:000

Stocks closed at a fresh cycle high on Friday as the S&P 500 has been enjoying a 7-day win streak, which is the longest in 18 months. Don't look now fans, but the venerable blue-chip index is now just 38 points or 1.3% away from its all-time high. And unless the upcoming earnings season pr… read more...

Bill Nygren Market Commentary Q1 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 04:49:44:000

At Oakmark, we are long-term investors. We attempt to identify growing businesses that are managed to benefit their shareholders. We will purchase stock in those businesses only when priced substantially below our estimate of intrinsic value. After purchase, we patiently wait for the gap bet… read more...

The Message From The Jobs Report - The Economy Is Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 04:48:05:000

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ((BLS)) published the March monthly "employment report" which showed an increase in employment of 196,000 jobs. As Mike Shedlock noted on Friday: "The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,… read more...

A Solid Encore To A Strong Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 04:09:16:000

The first-quarter returns for the S&P 500 were quite strong, but if you thought the market wouldn't have enough energy for a good encore, the first full week of Q2 proved otherwise. With gains on every trading day of the quarter's first week, the S&P 500 heads into Monday riding a seve… read more...

Economic Expansions Don't Die Of Old Age

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 12:55:37:000

As the end of March neared, the 3-month Treasury interest rate surpassed the 10-year Treasury interest rate and this resulted in a 3-month/10-year inversion of the yield curve, the first since 2007. This inversion has unwound as the curve has started to steepen with a move higher in the 10-yea… read more...

The Latest Jobs Report Was Not Really That Great

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 08:30:59:000

Well, yet another month has passed, so it is time for another jobs report. Fortunately, this one was a lot better than last month's as the number of new jobs created surged compared to February and ultimately managed to beat expectations. Unfortunately, the average hourly earnings came in we… read more...

10 Key Charts Say There's Little To Worry About

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 05:35:00:000

By now, just about everyone knows that an inverted yield curve is a sign of an impending recession. It may be a necessary sign, but it is not sufficient. It takes more than an inverted yield curve; it also takes very high real interest rates, which are the Fed's most powerful tool, to trigger … read more...

Experience Is The Only Cure

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 05:17:15:000

A Run For The Highs Continues "Fueling the markets are statements from past and present Fed Governors that are not only dovish but discuss a resumption of QE and negative interest rates. Former Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen, recently said the Fed needs more tools to battle a financial … read more...

Important Steps Away From The Abyss

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 05:11:38:000

It seems to be well appreciated by policymakers and investors that the system is ill-prepared to cope with another financial crisis. It is understandable that so many are concerned that the end of the business cycle could trigger a financial crisis. In practice, it seems like it has worked t… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Volatility Closing In On A Bottom Or Ready To Drop?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 04:00:00:000

A Tale of Two Quarters After a wild and volatile final quarter in 2018 volatility instruments across the board have seen their levels continue to decline into the end of the first quarter in 2019. [[VXXB]] has witnessed a decline of over 45% since the highs that were struck in December a… read more...

Will The Next Recession Be Any Different?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 03:30:09:000

The headline question appeared in Quora : Will the Next Recession Be Any Different? It's a good question, so let's delve into. All recessions have commonalities as well as unique characteristics. Before looking at the likely characteristics of the next recession, let's take a look at histor… read more...

Jobs Growth Slows, But Only A Little Bit

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 03:21:26:000

April 6's job numbers beat expectations, with 196,000 jobs added and a small positive revision to the prior two months. On a rolling 3-month average, job creation fell to the lowest level in over a year, but only marginally. While jobs growth is still solid, it has cooled a bit. That isn't any… read more...

Payrolls: Fragile Friday

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 03:15:28:000

Milton Friedman was right about a lot of things. He was wrong about quite a bit, too. The stuff where he erred is what central banks now do in his name. The activist central bank is an outgrowth of monetarism, the academic approach to rethinking the Great Depression after Friedman and Anna Sch… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - April 5, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 02:55:14:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. It was an interesting week. The bulls are within shouting distance from making a new all-time high in the market, and the bears are dug in at 2,930. It's a classic battle of wills and determination. The chart below shows the… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: Just How Restrictive Is The Federal Reserve?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 10:38:31:000

Just how restrictive is the Federal Reserve? According to the statistics I watch, the Federal Reserve is not restrictive at all. If one looks at the growth of the money stock, in this case the broader M2 measure of the money stock, we see that year over year for the four weeks ending March… read more...

Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 08:48:30:000

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli , having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. … read more...

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Continuing Soft Economic Growth With Some Contraction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 03:39:00:000

Overall, what struck me this week were the effects of inflation and population. Except for a few data points, the releases from the government agencies showing monetary values are not inflation adjusted or population adjusted to determine real growth: The US population is growing by 0.6 … read more...

Dollar Rises On Strong U.S. Jobs Data

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 03:28:42:000

The U.S. dollar is higher across the board against major pairs on Friday. The greenback got a boost from the March U.S. non-farm payrolls ((NFP)) report that showed the economy added 196,000 jobs and an upward revision to the February numbers. The wage component did not do as well with a lower… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Upside Momentum Continues In The Search For New Market Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 03:06:39:000

"When I look back on all these worries, I remember the story of the old man who said on his deathbed that he had a lot of trouble in his life, most of which had never happened." - Winston Churchill The S&P came out of the gate on a positive note on the first day of April trading. I… read more...

'Bond Trading' Exodus, The Global Economy's Q4 Landmine

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 02:37:41:000

It isn't just US or European banks which are shrinking. The nature of this post-August 9, 2007, world is just that - global. Sure, there are regulations which have made investment banking more expensive. But there isn't a rule or law that Wall Street (really Lombard Street) wouldn't "discover"… read more...

How Much Does The Fed Influence Equity Volatility?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 00:56:26:000

By Andrew Capon At A Glance In 11 Fed easing cycles since 1972, equity volatility rose in the three months prior to the first rate cut. "Don't fight the Fed" is such a wizened market phrase that the temptation is to ignore it. But for U.S. equities, it seems that the Federal Reserv… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: March Nonfarm Employment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 00:07:39:000

By Jill Mislinski Some of the Big Four indicators have still not been updated, but we thought it best to publish the latest on each, regardless of timing. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about … read more...

Do Big Jobs Numbers Equal Fed Action?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 23:41:08:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Quantitative Investment Strategist Abraham Robison and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed the recent U.S. jobs report, manufacturing indicators in China and the nuances of the recent yield curve inversion. The U.S. jobs number was the … read more...

When Italy Laughs In The Face Of Germany

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 22:17:27:000

During the fourth quarter of 2018, Italy ( EWI ) and the ECB have clashed repeatedly over the Italian government's intention to maintain a budget deficit of ~2.4%, above the ECB's 2% officially allowed ceiling. Eventually, the two sides have come to an agreement with Italy allegedly complyin… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of April 1-5

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 13:44:59:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to see if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." I'm lowering my recession probability i… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of April 1-5

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 13:06:58:000

This Week's Major Economic Releases (with links) Asia: Japan Japan's Manufacturing PMI rose modestly to 49.2. Japan's Tankan Index was disappointing and shows an economy that might be near 0% growth in the first quarter. Japan's services PMI down .3 to 52. Composite do… read more...

'Just Right' Jobs, But Other Concerns Abound

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 12:06:55:000

NEW YORK (April 5th) - The March jobs report printed at a 196,000 new jobs. The consensus estimate had been just 180,000. Revisions for January (+1,000 jobs) and February (+13,000) netted 14,000 more jobs. The revisions resulted in average three months job creation of 180,000, jobs and s… read more...

Semiconductor Stocks At New Highs: Can It Continue?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 12:04:40:000

Semiconductors stocks are on fire. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( SMH ) is up by almost 28% year to date and trading near historical highs as of the time of this writing. In this context, it makes sense for investors to wonder if it's still a good time to buy the semiconductor ETF or… read more...

U.S. Private-Sector Payrolls Rebounded In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 10:28:19:000

US companies hired 182,000 workers in March, far above the meager 28,000 increase in February, the Labor Department reports. The news triggered a collective sigh of relief by effectively confirming that February's weak gain was noise. The upbeat data translates to a 1.9% year-over-year i… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Strong Payrolls Report Sets US Equities At Ease (And VIX < 13)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 10:24:25:000

Market Intro CNBC: 1:05PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) appear to have taken a decidedly positive view to the NFP release this morning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics . The bump in stock prices corresponded to spot VIX dipping below the 13 handle, with a brief (but pe… read more...

Growth That's Bought But Not Paid For

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 10:00:05:000

Very clear warning signs are now flashing that the U.S. economy could be heading for trouble and that the longest expansion in recent memory may soon end. But as usual, financial media and mainstream investors are once again flushed with optimism as the stock market plows higher. Last week… read more...

Economic Growth Has Already Bottomed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 09:48:22:000

A 60:40 allocation to passive long-only equities and bonds has been a great proposition for the last 35 years We are profoundly worried that this could be a risky allocation over the next 10." - Sanford C. Bernstein &amp; Company Analysts (January 2017) Bull markets are born … read more...

The Attractiveness Of A Defensive Stock Strategy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 09:31:21:000

In January of 2018, the U.S. economy surprised to the upside at nearly every turn. Since that time, however, the fundamentals have slowly deteriorated. Consider the Citi Economic Surprise Index (ESI). The popular measure compares actual data against estimates. Remarkably, the indicator has b… read more...

Deja Vu 2000

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 09:01:15:000

After the best returns for the stock market in a decade during the first quarter of this year, history suggests that there could be more good times ahead, as detailed in an article this week by Ploutos. Now investors need to ask themselves a simple question - should they party as though it w… read more...

Weekly Edge: Corporate Profitability Tested As Costs Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 14:06:11:000

By Ansh Chaudhary After a decade-long bull market in stocks, investors are beginning to question the feasibility of the continuation of the current rally. Rising wages and energy costs may start to cut into corporate profit, adding another hurdle to equity valuations as worries of a global… read more...

With QT Ending, What Now For Gold?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 06:43:56:000

John Rubino and Michael Oliver return for this weeks episode of the radio program. Powell's pivot from QT gave Wall Street crybabies the candy they screamed for as equities peered over the abyss in late 2018 into the next stock market crash. China added massive stimulus as well. So… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - April 4, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 05:20:01:000

The BCI at 253.6 is above last week's upwardly revised 252.3, and formed a new high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 10.6 is above last weeks upwardly revised 10.3. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a rece… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: FOMO 'May' Strike Me

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 04:00:00:000

For those following my work for some time, you would know that the market breaking below 2880SPX back in the fall had me raise cash because it suggested that a 20-30% correction was likely beginning. And, in December, when we were calling for the market to drop precipitously from the 2800SPX r… read more...

Don't Target Interest Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 03:41:47:000

John Cochrane has a very long and interesting post, which advocates that the Fed target interest rates. I respectfully disagree. Here's Cochrane: But money has disappeared from more recent economic thinking. My preferred model of the world (fiscal theory of monetary policy) has an inter… read more...

Limited Price Action Does Not Do Justice To Macro Developments

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 02:42:56:000

Overview: The global capital markets are subdued despite several macro developments. The US and China may announce as early as today when the two presidents will meet to ostensibly sign a trade deal, while House of Commons' effort to block a no-deal exit goes to the House of Lords today. Ind… read more...

InvestED: Ep. 207- Inverted Yield Curve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 02:40:19:000

"Now this isn't necessarily the end of the stock market run. But given the fact that we've had a 10-year stock market run, which is a world record. We're way overdue for a major downturn." - Phil Town This week Phil and Danielle talk about the fact that 30% of the stock market is not inves… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: SPX Rally Fizzles Toward End Of Day, VIX Notices

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 23:24:29:000

Market Intro CNBC: 3:10PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) fared quite well before the open, as well as the early part of the session. As we near the close, however, the tone has grown more muted. Econoday The NFP jobs number will be released this Friday, and I am quite i… read more...

Bullish Signals: A Surge In Golden Crosses

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 23:09:27:000

In this article, I take you through a selection of charts which show how a golden cross signal has lit up on both the S&amp;P 500 and across Global Equities (and what it means for the market outlook). First, a quick word on definitions. A "golden cross" is when the 50-day moving average … read more...

Bond Market Sending Strong Signals Of A Potential Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 23:03:56:000

Welcome to the Tortoise QuickTake podcast . Thank you for joining us. Today, senior members of Tortoise provide a timely update on trending topics in the market. Welcome to the Tortoise Credit weekly podcast. I am Jeff Brothers, senior portfolio manager for Tortoise. In this weeks… read more...

Monthly S&P 500 Setup Favors Bullish Outcomes Next 1-2 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 15:17:25:000

Third Consecutive Monthly Close As described in detail below, when the S&amp;P 500 ( SPY ) closed above the monthly Bollinger Band centerline at the end of January, it aligned the present day with favorable historical probabilities and also provided some distance from setups in the 1974,… read more...

The Price Of Inflation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 12:45:15:000

Monetary inflation creates the breeding ground for what we commonly refer to as the catalysts of financial crises. It lays the foundation on which the building blocks of all financial crises are erected. In tandem with inflation, these catalysts multiply and grow large enough over time to crea… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 3

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 12:43:41:000

Why yes, Virginia, shutting down the U.S.-Mexico border is an incredibly stupid policy idea. Here are two graphs from the FRED database that show the amount of cross-border trade that occurs between the U.S. and Mexico: The above figures are on a monthly basis. Yes, the U.S. imports more fro… read more...

S&P 500 Continues To Push - But Not For Long

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 07:22:56:000

The move up in the S&amp;P 500 off the Christmas low is nothing less than an astounding V-Shaped recovery, moving up over 550 points in 3 short months. However, the pattern off this low has all the markings of a corrective move up with lower levels still to come. While the move down from the… read more...

Optimism Sweeps Through The Capital Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 04:15:08:000

Overview: Japan announced the name of the new era that begins May 1 and a new emperor. The connotation is of beautiful harmony. And investors have taken the bit and run with it. Amid optimism that the US and China are near reaching an agreement on trade, China and Europe have reported better… read more...

Market Update: A Flurry Of Buying

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 01:50:17:000

By OpenMarkets The second quarter started with a flurry of buying in equity markets. Jack Bouroudjian discusses what that means for stock and bond markets, and covers the technical and fundamental factors to look out for in the weeks ahead. Editors Note: The summary bu… read more...

Market Remains Overvalued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 01:38:51:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio ( more ) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor ( more ) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the ma… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 01:10:07:000

The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index ((GMI)) ticked higher again in March, edging up to an annualized 4.7% return. The fractional gain lifted the outlook above the 4.6% estimate in last month's update. Today's revision for GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio t… read more...

When Will The Sky Fall?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 01:00:58:000

Now, before you get all snippy about my negativity, let's get something straight. Everyone has their own opinions about the markets and what they selfishly want to see them do. For me, it isn't that I want to see people that are long in the market lose money - I mean I am long with equities in… read more...

Technically Speaking: Do You Really Want To Be Out?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 23:56:52:000

Do You Really Want To Be Out? That was a comment made several times last week with respect to the market's stellar first-quarter performance. "The S&amp;P 500 is on track for its best quarter in a decade, up roughly 12 percent. And if history is any indication, the index could be … read more...

Technically Speaking For April 2

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 12:52:24:000

So - where are we in the Brexit process? Nowhere good. Yesterday, Parliament voted down multiple possible plans and solutions. Today the EU's chief Brexit negotiator said that a hard Brexit was increasingly likely while Teresa May's cabinet convened crisis talks . As I noted on Twitter… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Can Spot VIX Push Through To New Six-Month Lows?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 10:53:16:000

Market Intro CNBC - 1:04PM EST Investing.com: NASDAQ 5-Day Price All four of the major US indexes ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are taking a breather on Tuesday, after an appreciable run-up in share prices over the last week. Spot VIX has descended back to the very low end of its si… read more...

New Challenges Faced By The Bretton Woods Institutions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 10:09:52:000

In their 75 years of existence, the twin institutions born at the Bretton Woods Conference have undergone adaptation and transformation in response to the evolution of the world economy and the challenges it has posed to them. Morphing institutions The IMF was created and continues to ha… read more...

Market Pulse Signal: Trend Turns Positive As Concerns Persist

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 07:29:02:000

Market Pulse Signal Update The Market Pulse model has increased its equity allocation from 40% to 100%. The model informs the Ned Davis Research CMG US Large Cap Long/Flat Index and produces signals that allow the Index to tactically allocate between various levels of equity and cash. This l… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: It's About Expectations Vs. Reality

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 06:57:58:000

One of the first headlines on CNBC.com after Monday's closing bell read: Stocks gain 300 points, but why? The article implied that markets can't seem to decide whether rising rates are good or bad. The author opined that just a couple months ago, stocks would have quaked at the idea of rat… read more...

Technical Tuesday - Are We Moving Up To A New Range?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 06:34:26:000

Over 2,850 on the S&amp;P 500 (/ES). The S&amp;P 500 is at 2,873, in fact, as of yesterday's close and I really liked this chart by Andrew Lais at Stockcharts on the SPY showing the huge turnaround in buying activity that has fueled what is now a 12.9% rally off the January lows. Clearly… read more...

March Madness Leads To Gladness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 04:00:50:000

As usual, there was plenty of "madness" in March, and this year did not disappoint. Just as is the case with the annual NCAA basketball tournament, certain investors suffered the agony of defeat in the financial markets, but overall, the thrill of victory triumphed in March. So much so that th… read more...

March 2019 Yield Curve Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 03:11:38:000

Since the zero lower bound distorts the yield curve at very low rates, an inverted yield curve at low rates is worse than an inverted yield curve at higher rates. This is a reason why the curve didn't invert in the 1950s. The necessary adjustments here could be made either by just looking … read more...

Herding Cats

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 03:04:19:000

Overview After surging yesterday, equities are struggling to maintain the momentum that carried that S&amp;P 500 to its best level since last October. Most Asia-Pacific equity markets advanced. Japan's small losses were a notable exception. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has advanced in four of the… read more...

First Quarter 2019 Performance Commentary And Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 02:59:00:000

Editors Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Leveraged ETF Decays - Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 14:22:13:000

I measure once a month the decay of major leveraged ETFs. It may be useful for anyone using leveraged ETFs for investing, trading, or hedging. Where does the decay come from? Most of the time, a leveraged ETF does worse than the underlying asset leveraged by the same factor. This relativ… read more...

Technically Speaking For April 1

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 12:42:11:000

Insert pithy attempt at an April 1 joke here. The EU's Markit Economics Manufacturing PMI was terrible: here are the key findings: Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 47.5 in March (Flash: 47.6, February Final: 49.3) Biggest monthly decline in new orders since late 2012 … read more...

Style Box Analysis: March 31, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 12:02:26:000

What's interesting about the Style Box update the last 6 weeks is that Small and Mid Cap Value is starting to close the underperformance gap between it and Growth. Large Cap Growth's premium to Value has widened out substantially again in the last 6 weeks. That Growth premium might have so… read more...

My Current View Of The S&P 500 Index: April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 11:43:20:000

The stock market continued its rally that started in January and it looks to continue moving forward according to my methodology. The market, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 index, gained 1.79% in March. As for my pension plan assets, I had a 1.81% return in March due to being 100% allocated in… read more...

Way Too Much Bearish Sentiment Out There

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 08:41:07:000

Stocks have suffered from a loss of momentum in recent weeks, leading many observers to conclude that the market is ripe for a correction. In the wake of this momentum loss and expansion of headline fears, a growing number of institutional analysts have turned bearish on stock and are calling … read more...

Our Outlook For The Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 08:35:36:000

Where are risk assets headed after a strong first quarter? We see a repeat as unlikely and a narrower path for a grind higher. The global economy must remain strong enough to quell recession fears but weak enough to keep policymakers on hold, we believe. We are moderately pro-risk, with a penc… read more...

Bonds Vs. Stocks: Which Market Is Right?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 02:32:36:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities Is the bond market cautious or confused? Is the equity market confident or complacent? The first quarter of 2019 came to a close last week with an episode that typified the financial market confusion of the past thre… read more...

Falling U.S. Rates And The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 00:49:52:000

Interest rates matter, especially to carry trades. Indeed, interest rate differentials are what determine which currency pairs are positive-carry or negative-carry. If you can purchase one currency that yields "X" in terms of another currency that yields "Y", so long as X exceeds Y (after cost… read more...

The End Of Easy Street

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 00:05:00:000

One great quarter down, only three to go to wash away the horror show of 2018. The portfolio did well, though it is still bogged down by a number of single names which are beginning to look a lot like value traps of the nastiest kind. I am, as ever, optimistic about redemption in coming quarte… read more...

Monthly Macro Monitor - March 2019 (Video)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 21:39:16:000

By Marcelo Perez Editors Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of March 25-29

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 11:52:08:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to see if we've reached an economic "Turning Point." Conclusion: My recession probability i… read more...

Should You Scale Back Technology To Gain More&#xA0;Health?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 09:03:57:000

Prologue Since we mentioned it for the first time four months ago , the US yield curve has inverted further, raising fresh concerns about the risk of an upcoming recession . There are arguments to be made that "this time is different in interpreting inversion. However, there is… read more...

Equities And The Fed: A Dependent Or Codependent Relationship?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 06:18:54:000

By Erik Norland From early 2014 through 2018, expectations for rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) moved almost in lockstep with U.S. equity markets. Higher stock prices eventually translated into expectations that the Fed would hike rates while lower equities would cause (or at least … read more...

Debt Ceiling Back In Play

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 06:06:24:000

By Bluford Putnam The twin threat of a technical debt default and potential government shutdown could resurface later this year, likely affecting equities and Treasuries. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

This Week In Money - March 30, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 05:06:42:000

Ross Clark Stocks and bonds. Gerald Celente Gold, silver, US and China, 5G, and EVs. Ed Steer Gold, silver, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. Larry Reaugh , President &amp; CEO of American Manganese Inc. Produced by HoweStreet…. read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Market Is Stunned By The Bond Rally - But It Has Higher To Go

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 04:00:00:000

One of my members of The Market Pinball Wizard ((TMPW)) laughingly posted an article in our chatroom entitled "Riding the Bond Rally No One Saw Coming." Were you one of the many who did not see this rally coming? The point my member was trying to make was that while we were preparing for this … read more...

Market Update: One Of The Best Quarters In A Decade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 03:42:41:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian steps back and takes a look at the elements that led to one of the strongest quarters for markets in a decade: stocks, bonds and commodities were all up. He looks ahead to Q2 and whether the appetite for risk will remain. Editor's Note : The summary… read more...

Ignore The Yield Curve, They Said...

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 03:29:25:000

A Run For The Highs Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance since 2009. As shown in the chart below, if you bought the bottom, you are " killing it." However, you didn't. Despite all of the media "hoopla" about the rally, the realit… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Everything Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 03:18:50:000

From the global bubble perspective, it was one extraordinary quarter worthy of chronicling in some detail. The "Everything Rally," indeed. Markets turned even more highly synchronized - across the globe and across asset classes. As the quarter progressed, it seemingly regressed into a contest … read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - March 29, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 02:11:03:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. You all know by now that I try to make this article as brief and to the point as possible so that busy people can get a sense of what's happening in the market quickly. This week I'm focusing on two things: the inverted yield … read more...

Consumer Sentiment And New Home Sales Post Gains

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 11:54:03:000

By Robert Hughes The final March results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Sentiment show overall consumer sentiment improved from the February result. Consumer sentiment increased to 98.4 in March, up from 93.8 in February, a 4.9 percent gain. From a year ago, the index … read more...

Is The U.S. Yield Curve Signaling A U.S. Recession?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 11:47:42:000

There has been a lot of talk the past few years about the flattening of the US yield curve - which is a graphical representation of the spread between short- and long-term interest-rate instruments. More recently, some market commentators have focused on the inversion of one part of the curve … read more...

Measuring Unemployment And Labor-Force Participation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 09:46:40:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on March 29 by James Hamilton here . The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate and labor-force participation rate are calculated contain numerous inconsistencies - if one of the numbers economists use is correct, another… read more...

In The Midst Of Rising Unknowns, Focus On What We Do Know

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 06:03:13:000

As someone famous (or infamous depending on your leanings ) once said, "there are known knowns there are known unknowns but there are also unknown unknowns." We've got a whole lot of the second two going around these days and that is not good for growth. Life and investing r… read more...

What Stocks May Need: A Bit Of Inflation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 05:29:30:000

Russ discusses the divergence between rising stock prices and falling bond yields. What gives and can it continue? Back in February I highlighted the interesting - read: troubling - divergence between stock prices and bond yields. Bonds were signaling an economic slowdown while persisten… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Long-Term Outlook Turns Positive As Lower Interest Rates Outweigh Lower Profits

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 05:00:00:000

Purpose I look at the high-frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark yo… read more...

Right-Side Up Again? The Latest On The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 00:33:44:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed the recent U.S. Treasury yield-curve inversion, progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China, and the latest Brexit developments. Yield curve temp… read more...

Eyes On Jobless Claims Indices

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 23:57:24:000

As we discussed in last night's Closer and a blog post yesterday, weekly initial jobless claims moved back to 211K, the lowest in over two months and a pretty healthy print. While initial claims have been fairly volatile and more recent prints have been reassuring that recent highs are not… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - It's A Late Cycle Slowdown, For Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 23:33:49:000

Q4 GDP Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, down from the prior estimate of 2.6%. The economy grew 2.9% in 2018, which was up from 2.2% in 2017, but what did that extra growth cost? A lot! Despite last year's ill-advised tax cu… read more...

Is A Recession Imminent? (Even If Not, Does It Really Matter?)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 13:29:35:000

The yield curve has inverted again . Why does this matter so much (or at all)? Because the last nine recessions in the US were all preceded by an inverted yield curve, as measured by the 10-year minus 1-year US Treasury Yield Spread (i.e. 1-year US Treasury Yield &gt; 10-year US Treasury Yi… read more...

The Bonds Vs. Stocks Conundrum: Something's Gotta Give, Soon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 11:40:45:000

Treasuries - the Name of the Game Over the past five months, US Treasuries ( IEF , GOVT , SCHR , VGIT , TIP , SHV , SHY , IEF , TLT ) have turned out to be the hottest long trade, yet again. Data by YCharts Earlier this week, we've witnessed a very strong 2-Year Treasury auction… read more...

Russell 2000 Is On The Fence, Look For Volatility Expansion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 11:31:59:000

The Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares ETF ( TNA ) experienced a brief rally after being down more than three days in a row and touching critical support of the 100-day moving average. But, it failed to make its run-up back to the 200-day moving average, unlike the S&amp;P 500 3x Shares… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of March 25-29: The Markets Are Feeling 'Toppy'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 10:20:17:000

Professionally, I'm both a lawyer and an analyst, which means I suffer twice-over from "on the other hand"-ism. So, here's the conclusion. The possibility of strong equity markets advances is being diminished by a softer economic backdrop, the bond market rally, and underlying market techn… read more...

Forget About Recessions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 04:14:49:000

There will be another U.S. economic recession as assuredly as the sun will come up tomorrow. The problem is that no one knows when it will occur or what will trigger its onset. In fact, it will likely be over by the time it is officially recognized. Seven months after the Great Recession had o… read more...

Corporate Profits Are In The Middle Of The Only Debate Which Matters

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 03:10:10:000

The BEA has completed its unscheduled departure from its release schedule. Due to the prior federal government shutdown, the government agency was only able to put together two estimates for Q4 2018 real GDP. The first had seemed to calm some fears that US growth was wobbly toward the end of l… read more...

Equities Bounce While Bonds Pull Back To End Q1

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 03:06:39:000

Overview: The global growth scare may be subsiding. It had been fanned by the ECB and Fed statements and projections. Poor US jobs growth reported in early March and the poor flash EMU PMI late in the month contributed. The slowdown in China and the flurry of measures to combat it also had a… read more...

Brexit - And Beyond

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-29 00:46:09:000

The drama over Brexit - the United Kingdom's June 2016 decision to leave the European Union - continues to dominate headlines. But from key elections to transatlantic trade threats, it's one of many issues keeping Europe alert. Across the continent, what's happening now, and what comes ne… read more...

Slowing Growth Raises Questions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 23:29:16:000

By Robert Hughes Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, down from a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The final quarter of 2018 marks the second consecutive deceleration in quarterly growth… read more...

3 Key Takeaways From PIMCO's Cyclical Outlook: Flatlining At The New Neutral

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 22:54:15:000

Following the Federal Reserve's pivot to patience, we believe U.S. short-term interest rates are now anchored in the New Neutral. Global growth keeps synching lower, but may experience a soft landing later this year if China's economy stabilizes and trade tensions ease. However, political unce… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 28

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 12:50:16:000

According to Reuters , the Chinese have made "unprecedented offers" in their negotiations with the U.S (emphasis added). Negotiators have made progress on the details of the written agreements that have been hashed out to address U.S. concerns, he said. If you looked at th… read more...

What We Are Witnessing Today Is A Different Kind Of Stock Market Euphoria

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 10:22:25:000

A couple of weeks ago , I wrote about how extreme valuations can be explained by extreme sentiment or euphoria. This week, I'd like to discuss the sort of euphoria we are witnessing in regards to owning equities today because it's certainly very different than the sort of euphoria we saw at t… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: SPX Moves By More Than 1% In 24 Hours, Making It Difficult For Vol To Drop

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 09:46:28:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:07PM EST Despite the apparent lack of net activity since Wednesday's close, S&amp;P futures ( SPY ) have undergone a decent amount of activity over the last 24 hours (low of 2,795, and high of 2,824). Spot VIX has dialed up a touch and will take cues in no small par… read more...

U.S. Stock Market: Recession Ahead?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 07:47:44:000

On Friday something happened, maybe something big: For the first time since the Financial Crisis, the yield curve inverted. One can argue about the point in time when the yield curve can be described as inverted, but for most experts the yield curve is inverted when the 10-year treasury yiel… read more...

Claims Still Healthy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 07:34:17:000

Bucking the trend of recent weak economic releases, this week's Initial Jobless Claims provided a sigh of relief as it came in stronger than expected. On a seasonally adjusted basis, claims fell 5K from last week's 216K to 211K. The past two weeks' decline in the claims number has brought the … read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report | 28 March 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 07:10:01:000

The recent deceleration in US economic activity in last year's second half is expected to spill over into 2019's first quarter, but there are signs that the slowdown may be stabilizing. A fresh run of numbers for a broad range of indicators shows that the deterioration in the macro trend has… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - March 28, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 06:34:33:000

The BCI at 249.9 is below last week's upward revised 250.3 and remains below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 81.3. Also, the six-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 8.9 is below last weeks 9.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession (BCIp … read more...

Is An Inverted Yield A Harbinger Of Bad News?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 04:48:03:000

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Wealth 365 The February unemployment rate was 3.8 percent, well below the 5.0 percent threshold considered full-employment. Wage growth was also solid, implying the economy remains strong. However, the yield curve suggests future economic growth could be lacki… read more...

Brexit Uncertainty Deepens As Parliament Is Divided, While Turkey's Short Squeeze Falters

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 04:01:28:000

Overview: The lurch lower in global interest rates continue. The US 10-year yield is at new 15-month lows, five basis points through the average effective Fed funds rate. Late yesterday, it appeared that 10-year German Bund yields slipped below similar Japanese government bond yields for the… read more...

Stocks head for best quarter in 7 years despite rising fears of a recession

via: CNBC at 2019-03-28 03:06:29:000

No summary available. read more...

Technically Speaking For March 27

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 13:08:36:000

The San Francisco Federal Reserve is projecting a somewhat slower pace of growth in 2019. Most importantly, due to slower working-age population growth, they are also predicting a slower pace of growth for the medium term (emphasis added): Demographics are the most important reason to e… read more...

Slow Growth Is (Still) Expected For Next Month's U.S. Q1 GDP Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 07:54:20:000

A new roundup of nowcasts for US economic activity in the first quarter continue to reflect an ongoing slowdown. Based on the estimates, output in the first three months of 2019 is on track to decelerate again - for the third straight quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis ((BEA)) is set t… read more...

Markets Are Fragile And Brexit Doesn't Help

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 07:25:25:000

We expect the British pound to suffer and be volatile as a result of the Brexit drama. Although the indicative votes on Brexit alternatives may not mean much for the final decision that will be taken, they will probably reveal the lack of a majority in parliament for a single course of act… read more...

Monthly Macro Monitor: Well Worried

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 07:11:37:000

Don't waste your time worrying about things that are well worried. Well worried. One of the best turns of phrase I've ever heard in this business that has more than its fair share of adages and idioms. It is also one of the first - and best - lessons I learned from my original mentor in th… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 06:13:12:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 25, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 21.57% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 13.67%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 13.12%. Coming in last is India… read more...

Zero Spread Is Not Stomping Out A Bull Market Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 05:05:21:000

Source: istockphoto The Curse of The Zero Spreads Investors on Friday were jolted by the market pullback triggered by an economic indicator with a steady record of predicting recessions. The Nasdaq ( QQQ ), S&amp;P 500 ( SPY ), Dow Jones ( DIA ), and the Russell 2000 Small Cap ( IWM ) inde… read more...

Median Household Income In February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 04:29:12:000

Sentier Research reports that median household income in the United States dropped to $63,378 in February 2019, a decline of 0.5% when compared to the analytical firm's initial estimate of $63,688 for January 2019. As such, February 2019 saw the largest month-over-month decline in this data … read more...

Global Bond Rally Continues, Greenback Remains Firm

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 04:21:57:000

Overview: The US 10-year yield is trading below the Fed funds target. The two-year yield is trading below the lower end of the Fed funds target range. A warning by New Zealand that the next rate move could be a cut sent New Zealand and Australian yields to new record lows. In Japan, the 10-y… read more...

Stock Buyback Boom In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 01:51:29:000

Monday S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices reported stock buyback activity for the S&amp;P 500 Index as of the end of the fourth quarter 2018. Highlights from S&amp;P DJI report: Q4 share repurchases increased 62.8% year-over-year to a record $223.0 billion Total 2018 buybacks set a recor… read more...

Yield Curve A U.S. Recession Signal? Maybe Not This Time

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 01:45:40:000

Recent declines in US government bond yields have led to a flood of articles discussing the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12-18 months. This is understandable, first given the relatively strong correlation between yield curve inversions and US recessions in the past and second, th… read more...

Global Economy: The Dollar, Gold, And Interest Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 13:18:59:000

My office is right in the heart of Vancouver's financial district above an exchange where you can get dollars, gold, or most any other international currency. Directly across the street from me is the old Vancouver Stock Exchange. From here, the hub of the global junior resource market, I am… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 26

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 12:48:41:000

Recessions are caused by economic shocks that are severe enough to disrupt the economy. Brexit continues to look like such an event. Recently, Prime Minister May went to the EU to ask for more time before the parties implemented Brexit. The EU gave the UK two choices. Either: Vote for t… read more...

What Can Push The Markets Forward In 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 10:58:22:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA In last week's episode of the "Behind the Markets" podcast, I was joined by Gene Goldman, director of research and CIO of Cetera Investment Management. Our discussion ranged from Goldman's role at Cetera to recent trends in emerging markets and macro data that might… read more...

Technically Speaking: Are We Going To New Highs?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 10:18:48:000

Are We Going To New Highs? I recently received the following email: "Are we going to hit new highs you think, or is this a setup for the real correction?" The answer is "yes" to both parts. Thank you for reading. See you next week. You still here? Fine, let me explain then. … read more...

This Important Fed Indicator Drives Monetary Policy - So What's It Saying?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 10:08:13:000

I came across something today of which I believe is the most important thing for gauging monetary policy. And the mainstream financial media isn't even talking about it (or worse - isn't even aware). Because of this indicator - I actually believe the Fed may begin cutting rates sooner th… read more...

Why An Inverted Yield Curve Is Important

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 09:20:48:000

An inverted yield curve happens when short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates. For this article, I will use the 10-year Treasury note for the long-term rate and the Fed Funds rate for the short term. The yield curve recently inverted, and market pundits are running around… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Stocks Rebound, But VIX Remains Cautious

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 09:20:35:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:38PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) bumped higher at the inception of Tuesday's afternoon session, more or less following the flow of international equities over the past day ( ACWX ). The 10-Yr US Treasury yield ( IEF , AGG ) is 2.43%, and the VIX … read more...

S&P 500: Remaining Humble Is Key

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 08:11:20:000

Over the years, we learned the hard way that remaining humble is one of the most important values an investor can learn when investing in the financial markets. Since markets and trends can change on a whim, staying adaptable is key to excelling long term. For example, so many perma-bears are … read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - The Bond Market Is Calling The Shots

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 06:46:35:000

Factory Orders Factory orders, which show the dollar amount of new orders for durable and non-durable goods, rose 0.1% in January. This was the same meek increase we saw in December. The strength in the report was led by aircraft and vehicle orders, while non-durable orders fell 0.3%. The … read more...

Semblance Of Stability Re-Emerging

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 04:12:37:000

Overview: The sell-off in equities seemed to peak yesterday, and US indices were narrowly mixed. Traders found comfort in that performance, even though the S&amp;P 500 finished a little below 2,800, and took the markets in the Asia-Pacific region higher, except in China, where the Shanghai C… read more...

Yield Curve Inversion: Don't Panic, But Make A Plan For A Bear Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 15:28:38:000

The inversion of the yield curve last Friday produced lots of concerns among investors. However, the historical evidence is not conclusive at all when it comes to the relationship between inversions and bear markets for stocks. That notwithstanding, investors should always have a plan for po… read more...

For The Average Investor, The Next Bear Market Will Likely Be The Last

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 15:17:06:000

Just recently Anna-Louise Jackson published an interesting article asking if "The Financial Crisis" still haunted your investing. To wit: This month marks the 10-year anniversary of the current bull market's beginnings. Yet, many Americans remain reluctant to invest in the stock mark… read more...

7 Market-Moving Charts Investors Need To See

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 11:49:07:000

Stocks erased their weekly gains and bond yields fell on Friday as investors reacted to a number of economic developments. Chief among them were a Treasury yield curve inversion, the first since before the financial crisis, and continued slowdown in the pace of U.S. manufacturing expansion. … read more...

The Fed Is In The (Wrong) Zone

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 09:47:36:000

(Source: Eric Dodds ) Patience is the Feds not-so new Comfort Zone. The economic environment is however in the Discomfort Zone, currently heading towards the Alarm Zone. Its a steep learning curve, even for those at the Fed who are ahead of the forward curve…. read more...

Stock Market Outlook - Buckle Up!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 05:08:14:000

It's more than 4 weeks ago since I wrote my most recent article covering the broader stock market. Back then, the main points were that we are indeed in a growth slowing environment which did cause the ugly sell-off in the last quarter of 2018. I also discussed that the stock market was a ve… read more...

Podcast 3/24/19: Week In Review And Interview: Russ Murdock, CFA

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 04:59:34:000

The Weekly Grind podcast is designed to wake up your investment brain with weekly overviews of financial markets and other economic-related topics. Episode 5 Market Review and Interview: Russ Murdock, CFA - Small Cap Value Manager Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this arti… read more...

Xi And Trump Miss A Chance To Expand Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 04:35:27:000

March 24, 2019 - Donald Trump has postponed until April the supposed deadline for a conclusion to China-US trade negotiations. A good outcome for both sides would have China agree to better protect private property rights and to reduce the role of the state in its economy; the US agree to … read more...

After The Predicted Rally, Where Does The Market Go Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 04:29:12:000

Image Credit: wsj.com A version of this article first appeared on 3/21/2019. The unprecedented, predicted Q1 2019 With a hearty, self-congratulatory pat on the back, now seems like an appropriate time to say I told you so, as markets have approached a high-water mar… read more...

The Wolf Street Report: March 24, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 03:48:21:000

The Next Big Letdown for Stocks. Walls Street is hoping for rate cuts and a new bout of QE, expecting that a recession will force the Fed's hand. Stocks have surged for three months based on that hope for a recession, rate cuts, and QE. But what if the Fed stopped tightening too soon, and … read more...

Monday Blues: Equities Pare Quarterly Gains

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 03:41:51:000

Overview: Global equities have soured after the US shares dropped the most since very early in the year before the weekend. Asia's sell-off was led by the 3% decline in Nikkei, while Malaysia fared among the best, surrendering 1%. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off for a fourth session. It … read more...

Transports And Russell 2000 ETFs Were Downgraded Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 10:46:04:000

Today, I show the daily charts with their key technical levels. Heres Todays Scorecard SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA: DIA ) Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith The Diamonds ETF is 17.5% above its 2018 low of $216.97 set on Dec. 26 and is… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: Fresh Data On Housing - At Last

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 10:38:05:000

It is a big economic calendar with almost every report on housing released in a single week. This is the result of the shutdown delay. Now we can get more clarity on this important sector. Pundits will be asking: Are lower mortgage rates helping home sales? Last Week Recap In last w… read more...

How Can You Protect Your Income From The Next Recession?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 05:45:00:000

Co-produced with Beyond Saving and PendragonY for High Dividend Opportunities The Global Economy: Not So Healthy This is a summary of the latest global economic data in the past few weeks: 1. The European Central Bank shocked investors around the world after it announced its surpr… read more...

Market Update And Follow Up

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 05:07:56:000

So, for those of you new to my blog, I am certainly glad you have given yourself one of the best opportunities to read insights from a long-time professional trader. The goal of this blog is to inform our readers with the clearest insight as to the who, what, why and how of modern economics. W… read more...

Notes On Friday's Meltdown: Don't Let It Fool You

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 04:34:57:000

To my best knowledge and years of experience in the markets, the Friday's unnerved session is just that, an anxious day after what seems to be a U-turn by the Fed. I am an old-school macro-guy. That means that when the Fed signalizes a dovish stance, I see it as a positive for stocks. If last … read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Has The Fed Finally Lost Control Of Interest Rates?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 04:00:00:000

Back in the 1940s, Ralph Nelson Elliott once noted: At best, news is the tardy recognition of forces that have already been at work for some time and is startling only to those unaware of the trend. So, rather than be startled by the news of the past week, I have been trying to… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Doing Harm With Uber-Dovish

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 02:18:24:000

This week's FOMC meeting will be debated for years - perhaps even decades. The Fed essentially pre-committed to no rate hike in 2019. The committee downgraded both its growth and inflation forecasts. Having all at once turned of little consequence, we can now dismiss the 3.8% unemployment rate… read more...

What The Fed Really Said

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 01:46:43:000

Market Review &amp; Recap The volatility in the markets continued this week with another big whipsaw for investors following the Fed meeting. On Thursday, the S&amp;P soared after the Fed announced they would not be hiking rates this year and ending their balance sheet reduction by Septemb… read more...

Market Update: Sovereign Debt And The Yield Curve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 01:19:23:000

By OpenMarkets Weak data out of Germany and a dovish Fed is causing some concern among market participants, says Jack Bouroudjian. Meanwhile, the yield curve has inverted. Jack covers the role sovereign debt is playing ahead of what could be an eventful week for the markets. Editor… read more...

This Week In Money - March 23, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 22:38:36:000

Ross Clark - Canadian federal budget, stock markets, and the Canadian dollar. Hilliard MacBeth - Canadian federal budget, new homebuyers and real estate. Robert Campbell - California's housing slump and US real estate. Larry Reaugh - President &amp; CEO of … read more...

Fed Pauses, REITs Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 10:25:29:000

Real Estate Weekly Review Goldilocks is alive and well, and that's been a boon for the US real estate sector in 2019. Mounting signs of slowing global growth and receding inflationary pressure in the US have kept the Fed on pause this year, sending the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-yea… read more...

Inflationism

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 04:37:53:000

"For the merchant, even honesty is a financial speculation." - Charles Baudelaire Watching with interest the Fed's additional dovishness, with the continuation in the rally in high beta and in particular credit, marking the return of "goldilocks" at least for this asset class, when it came… read more...

The Week Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 04:16:11:000

The combination of the dovish hold by the Federal Reserve and the eurozone's miserable flash Purchasing Managers Index casts a pall over the economic outlook. Japan's flash PMI remained stuck at February's 48.9, while core inflation unexpectedly eased. Three months after the European Central B… read more...

A Shot Across The Bow: What The Inversion Of The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve May Mean For Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 03:59:56:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist Erik Ristuben, and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed recent Brexit developments as well as the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Tough road ahead for UK even as Brexit extensi… read more...

Concentration Increasing?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 03:45:01:000

Is the US economy getting more concentrated or less? At the aggregate level, more. This is a widely noted fact, leading quickly to calls for more active government moves to break up big companies. But at the local level, no. Diverging Trends in National and Local Concentration by Esteban R… read more...

Sea Container Counts Confirm Slowing U.S. And Global Economies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 03:37:00:000

Every week, I have been forecasting a slowing economy based on the significant decline in rail movements. This week I add sea containers and truck transport to the list. Transport overall is strongly suggesting the economy is slowing. The February year-over-year import/export container cou… read more...

The Yield Curve Inverted

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 03:12:40:000

The Financial Times reports that the yield curve inverted, albeit by just 1 basis point: Uh oh Does this mean a recession is more likely than before? Yes. Does this mean that a recession is likely in the next 12 months? Probably not. Does this mean that monetary policy is too t… read more...

Was It All Just A Bad Dream?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 03:02:57:000

Recent market volatility over the last several months has been surreal. We've gone from December 2018's -9.2 percent decline in the S&amp;P 500 representing the worst December since 1931 to January 2019's 7.9 percent return representing the best January performance since 1976. Such a rapid tur… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: All But One Important Yield Spread Invert

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 03:01:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark … read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Not Much Has Changed. This Rally Is Hated,&#xA0;Buzzwords About A Market Top Are Swirling Around Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 02:16:14:000

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of fear, greed, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis". - Jesse Livermore The S&amp;P was off to its best start since 1991, as it… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of March 18-22

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 14:35:35:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contract -- to see if the economy has reached a "turning point." The nuts and bolts of this wee… read more...

The Rest Of The Camel Is In The Tent, As The 10-Year Treasury Yield Inverts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 14:11:46:000

Introduction Yesterday, I wrote about how the Fed is boxed in. The essence of the article is that, while lower rates are good for the housing market, a fuller yield curve inversion adds to the evidence that a recession may take place first, unless the Fed completely reverses course and sta… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of March 18-22

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 13:01:39:000

The EU has granted the UK and extension - a short one (emphasis added): After hours of difficult and sometimes passionate talks, the leaders decided that Britains exit date will be pushed back to May 22 if next week Mrs. May can persuade lawmakers in Parliament to accept her p… read more...

The (Non)Sense Of Diversification In A Buy And Hold Portfolio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 12:05:12:000

Introduction In my previous article about my favorite investment strategies , I gave you some collar on my screening process and why I focus like a laser on a few stocks which I believe are poised for market-crushing returns. Over the past several months and years, I've had the very good fo… read more...

Short-Covering Event Waiting In The Wings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 10:14:56:000

The Feds latest statement regarding its balance sheet reduction and interest rate plans has lifted a weight from the markets shoulders. It also paves the way for another major short covering event, likely within the next few weeks. As Ill explain in todays repor… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: VIX Leaps 25% Higher On Friday's Clawback Of Thursday's S&P Gains

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 09:34:55:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:24PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) followed European bourses ( VGK , EWG ) down the chute, erasing Thursday's sizable gains. S&amp;P Futures: one-week chart Spot VIX has certainly taken notice of Friday morning's developments: up over three vol p… read more...

The U.S. Economy Is In Big Trouble

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 06:15:24:000

"You've really seen the limits of monetary and fiscal policy in its ability to extend out a long boom period." - Josh Friedman, Co-Chairman of Canyon Partners (a "deep value," credit-driven hedge fund) The Fed's abrupt policy reversal says it all. No more rate hikes (yes, one is "schedul… read more...

What The Fed Said, And Why It Spooked The Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 05:47:27:000

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we share not only what the Fed said exiting its latest monetary policy meeting, but how and why that was very different from the last few of these meetings. It comes as no surprise that Fed Chairman Powell cites our Middle-Class Squeeze t… read more...

Dreadful EMU PMI And U.S. Machinations Rival Brexit For Attention

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 05:27:38:000

Overview : The S&amp;P 500 recovered from the post-FOMC reversal to close a new 5-month high yesterday, led by technology. Financials were the only main sector to retreat. The large equity markets in Asia, Japan, China, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan all advanced. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx… read more...

Peter Schiff: The Fed Is Not Getting It Right; It's Proving How Much It Got Wrong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 03:10:40:000

By SchiffGold There's that word again - patient. Jerome Powell once again emphasized patience during the most recent FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and took any hikes for 2019 off the table. It went a step further and projected just one rate hike in 2020…. read more...

The Fed Is Still A Threat To The Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 07:39:06:000

Background Beginning last July, I began tilting a bit toward bonds over stocks, though I liked them both. On July 16 I wrote How Bonds May Be Setting Up Bullishly (Here Comes Goldilocks?) . I suggested that the aggressive Fed tightening could bring the 10-year Treasury bond down to 2.4% fro… read more...

The Fed Is Now Hamstrung Between Scylla And Charybdis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 07:23:31:000

Introduction For the last several years, I have described the Feds interest rate regimen as trying to steer a path between the Scylla of an inverted yield curve (if long rates stayed low) and the Charybdis of a downturn in housing (if long rates moved higher in tandem with low rate… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - March 21, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 06:47:18:000

The BCI at 249.4 is above last week's 249.2, and remains below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 81.9. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 8.8 is below last weeks 9.5. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop … read more...

High Yield Energy Debt: The Writing Is On The Wall/Oil

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 06:14:25:000

Has US Bond Volatility Died? It certainly seems as if US bond volatility is dying. March 19th marked the lowest close for the MOVE index - that's the bond market's equivalent of the VIX Index ( VXXB , TVIX , UVXY , VXX , VXXB , VIXM , VIXX , VIXY ) - since it began being tracked, … read more...

My Favorite Way Of Measuring Market Liquidity And Why It's So Important

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 05:59:13:000

If there are two things I've learned from Macro trading, it's the importance of market liquidity (the flow of money), and understanding short- and long-term debt cycles . Both of these things work together hand-in-hand. But I believe liquidity conditions set the stage for the debt cycle … read more...

Quarterly Market Outlook: Stay Prepared

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 04:03:04:000

By Schwab Center For Financial Research In the three months since we published our 2019 Schwab Market Outlook , global growth has slowed and the Federal Reserve has suggested that short-term U.S. interest rates aren't likely to rise anytime soon. Our theme for the year was "be prepared," … read more...

Market Update: Fed Day

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 03:47:22:000

By OpenMarkets The Fed is holding rates steady. Jack Bouroudjian discusses what it means that the Fed is moving to the sidelines for now, and the continued impact trade tensions may have. Editors Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Rea… read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Equity Market Report March 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 03:40:00:000

Read more … read more...

Why To Worry About More Than Just A U.S.-China Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 01:54:50:000

By Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at BlackRock We believe markets are focused too narrowly on the U.S.-China trade dispute - and are failing to appreciate the complexities of a longer-term rivalry between the two countries as well as other looming trade tensions. Isa… read more...

Transports Leading Stock Market And Economy Lower

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 01:38:27:000

On Tuesday after the close, the largest global courier delivery service, Federated Express (FedEx) ([[FDX]]), warned of weaker-than-expected earnings and revenue for the second time in six months. In response, the shares have fallen 37% since January 2018 and 5% today alone. This is not a Fe… read more...

S&P 500: No Slowdown In Momentum

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 15:07:35:000

The main reason our portfolio is overweight equities is because of the momentum this asset class offers at present. Stocks roared out of their lows on the 24th of December last and really have not looked back since. We have consistently stated that all-time highs will be with us anytime soon n… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 20

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 12:43:53:000

In a policy move that surprised absolutely no one, the Fed left rates unchanged . Let's look at a few key lines from the policy announcement: The Fed specifically noted weaker growth: "… growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter.... growth of eco... read more...

Have The Market's Expectations Become Too Dovish?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 08:38:16:000

Following four rate hikes in 2018, the Fed has made a notable dovish shift this year by adopting a patient approach with future rate hikes. This comes amid weakening economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This has resulted in increased expectations of further Fed dovishness in fi… read more...

Ugly But True. And, As Usual, Late To The Party

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 05:31:39:000

"Wall Street looks to leave behind the half-year bear scare" This is a headline from an article and video a segment from CNBC's "Trading Nation." (3/18/19) The video is a three-way discussion with moderator Mike Santoli , Michael Bapis ( Fios Advisors at Rockefeller Capital Management… read more...

Brexit Drama Continues But Fed Moves To Center Stage

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 03:44:32:000

Overview: US stocks were not able to hold onto early gains yesterday, and this has helped set the stage for today's heavier bias. Asia Pacific markets were narrowly mixed, with Japan and Korea eking out small gains while China and Taiwan slipped a little. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is thre… read more...

After A Rapid Recovery, Stock Selection Is Very Important

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 02:13:39:000

The S&amp;P 500 has now risen 20% since its Christmas Eve low and the VIX (volatility index) is now at its lowest level since early October, when the stock market peaked, and ETF arbitrage spun out of control. The Wall Street Journal had an interesting article last week entitled, &#x201C… read more...

No More Panic, But Still Lots Of Caution

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 22:47:44:000

The panic attack that ravaged markets in the fourth quarter of last year, causing a 20% loss in the S&amp;P 500 index, has almost completely reversed. Overseas equity markets have recovered as well; credit spreads are back to normal levels, the dollar is relatively stable, and commodity pric… read more...

Market Update: Strong Period For Stocks Ahead?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 22:29:44:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian discusses why you should watch disparities between equity indexes as we approach the end of the quarter. Even more importantly, he says, watch rhetoric coming out of the Fed. Both dynamics will likely influence equity markets. Editors Note: … read more...

Technically Speaking: A Different Way To Look At Market Cycles

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 21:49:59:000

A Different Way To Look At Market Cycles In this past weekend's newsletter we noted the issues of similarities between the current market environment and previous market peaks in the past. To wit: "It isn't just the economy that is reminiscent of the 2007 landscape. As noted abo… read more...

2019: Another Bad Year For Stocks, Despite Trade Deal Optimism

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 13:27:34:000

The recent market rally has been impressive, and it has mostly relied on two points of optimism: Fed dovishness and the expected US-China trade deal. 2018 turned out, as I had also expected in early February, to be a pretty bad year for stocks. My pessimism was based on my belief that the ec… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 19

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 12:41:55:000

The economic world has lost one of its titans: Alan B. Krueger, who advised two presidents and helped lead economics toward a more scientific approach to research and policymaking, was found dead on Saturday at his home in Princeton, N.J. He was 58. ….. A labor economist by train... read more...

U.S. Q1 GDP Growth On Track To Slow Again As Fed Meeting Begins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 12:12:02:000

The recent slowdown in US economic growth is expected to continue in the first quarter, according to the latest nowcasts for GDP. The estimates will likely be a factor in the Federal Reserve's policy meeting that begins today and concludes tomorrow with an announcement on interest rates, a new… read more...

2019, Thus Far, Is&#xA0;Delivering The Best Start To A Year Since 1987

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 10:33:33:000

Prologue Over the past 15 months, the S&amp;P 500 ( SPY ) has been mostly contained within the 2,600-2,800 range. Some pundits said, before the new year started, that one thing is for sure: 2019 is going to be a difficult year for investors. So far, indeed it is (not)… The S&amp;P 50... read more...

Week Ahead: Fed And Brexit Developments

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 08:41:42:000

Market Forecast: This week could be positive for stocks if the Fed reduces its forecast for rate hikes and delivers on expectations. However, higher U.S. rates than elsewhere among major economies will draw capital from foreign markets and ultimately put upward pressure on the dollar. Delay … read more...

APs Embrace Equity ETFs In February, While Fund Investors Turn Risk-Averse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 06:17:24:000

Photo Source: REUTERS/Leah Millis. U.S. President Donald Trump looks towards North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during the one-on-one bilateral meeting at the second North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi, Vietnam February 28, 2019. For the second month in a row, investors were net purchasers of mu… read more...

When Comparing Stock/Market Valuations, Are You Using The Correct Frame Of Reference?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 05:51:29:000

Many investors are raising cash due to what are perceived to be high market valuations, the lengths of the economic expansion and market rise and slowing growth in economies around the world. Some buy-and-holders are just accumulating dividends while others are doing that plus trimming stock h… read more...

March Yield Curve Update: The 6-12 Month Mesa

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 04:23:19:000

Five Months of Flattening I've been publishing on the yield curve since November, and in that time, the curve has undergone some changes. Data: US Treasury For some time, the most obvious feature of the curve was the 2-Year Elbow, seen here at 2.91% on the red line from November…. read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 03:41:29:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 18, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 25.60% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 17.03%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 15.43%. Coming in last is India… read more...

Third Vote On Withdrawal Bill Scuppered Until After EU Summit

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 03:31:03:000

Overview: The capital markets remain subdued. Many Asian equity markets eased after a strong two-day advance. European equities are slightly firmer. The S&amp;P 500 closed at new five-month highs yesterday. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly a little softer. Australian 10-year bond yield fe… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 18

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 12:56:25:000

European political stress is high. The international soap opera that is Brexit continues. Although the number of participants is declining, the Yellow Vest protests continue in France. Italy is still considering participating in China's Belt Road Initiative. Finally, Ukraine is in the middl… read more...

After 2 Of The Greatest Bull Markets In U.S. History, Why Are Boomers So Broke?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 11:05:01:000

Last week, Jeff Desjardins of Visual Capitalist wrote in a post: "While it's true that putting your money on the line is never easy the historical record of the stock market is virtually irrefutable: U.S. markets have consistently performed over long holding periods, even going back to the … read more...

The Government Shutdown May Have Caused A Mini-Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 10:31:34:000

Introduction Aside from being a monumentally poor policy outcome, and aside from the hardship it caused nearly a million workers, the government shutdown may also have caused a general contraction in production, sales, and income, and a slowdown in employment that if it were longer would qua… read more...

The Yield Curve Is Persistently Signaling That Danger Lies Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 09:33:53:000

The "Smart Money": Danger Ahead! As I've already outlined many times before, most recently here , bonds ( AGG , BND , LQD , BSV , TLT , HYG , JNK ) are a much better indicator/gauge for the health of an economy than stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM , IVV , VTI , VOO ). High-yiel… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - What Ends The Expansion?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 08:12:55:000

Retail Sales Retail sales bounced back a very modest 0.2% in January, following the decline in December that was revised from 1.2% to 1.6%. The increase jumps to a more respectable 0.9% when we exclude autos. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gas, building materials and food service/… read more...

Should You Put Money To Work In The U.S. Market Right Now?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 06:56:38:000

It's Party Time! The party is running at full swing. YTD returns: Oil: United States Oil ( USO ) +26% Nasdaq 100: Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) +16% Small Caps: iShares Russell 2000 ETF ( IWM ) +16% MLPs: Alerian MLP ETF ( AMLP ) +16% REITs: Vanguard Real Estate ETF ( VNQ ) +15% … read more...

Spring Crash Of 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 06:54:46:000

All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. - Arthur Schopenhauer Im sorry, but I call BS on the way the stock markets rally has held over the last several weeks… read more...

Desperately Seeking Income

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 06:14:44:000

A long time ago in a galaxy far far away I began working on Wall Street. The year was 1971 and I had joined a small firm making markets in over-the-counter stocks and options. My salary was $100 a week and it was Camelot. Back then we were able to walk right off the American Stock Exchange tra… read more...

Equities Advance, Dollar Slips, Key Events Awaited

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 04:08:03:000

Overview: The eventful week has begun off slowly. After Wall Street's best week in four months underpinned Asian equities, where all the markets but Thailand, advanced, led by the nearly 2.5% rally in Shanghai. Note that New Zealand's S&amp;P/NZX 50 rose to new record highs. European bourses… read more...

A Tale Of Two Economies: News Vs. Reality

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 01:41:05:000

While President Trump, the newly dovish Jay Powell, and the mainstream media continue to sing praises about the U.S. economy, the data undoubtedly points to a U.S. economic slowdown. I see two major reasons for this: 1) Tightening of credit and liquidity through the Federal Funds rate and QT… read more...

The 5 Equity ETFs Straddle Their 200-Day Simple Moving Averages

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 12:32:43:000

Today, I show the daily charts with their key technical levels. Heres Todays Scorecard SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA: DIA ) Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith The Diamonds ETF is 19.1% above its 2018 low of $216.97 set on Dec. 26 and is 4.1% … read more...

Hair-Trigger Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 08:55:50:000

Stocks are at an inflection point. After a bruising end to 2018, the major indices caught fire at the turn of the New Year as the world's central banking cartel leapt into action. Here's how the US Federal Reserve reacted: The central banks have more than demonstrated that they are now sub… read more...

Sneak Peek Into April 5 Jobs Report And Beyond

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 06:37:28:000

By Erik Norland The past two employment reports took markets on a wild ride, with 311,000 jobs created in January, but only 20,000 in February. If you average the two, however, U.S. employers have been creating about 165,000 jobs per month so far in 2019, which is close to what our model s… read more...

Consumer Sentiment And Job Openings Show Improvement

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 05:38:48:000

By Robert Hughes The preliminary March results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Sentiment show overall consumer sentiment improved from the final February result. Consumer sentiment increased to 97.8 in early March, up from 93.8 in February, a 4.3 percent gain. From a ye… read more...

Record Job Openings In A Tight Labor Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 05:08:50:000

With Friday's release of the January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey ((JOLTS)), there is further confirmation that the job market remains tilted in favor of job seekers. As Econoday noted in their report , "employers are increasingly scrambling to fill [openings]." Even with new hire… read more...

Job Openings And Labor Turnover: Clues To The Business Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 04:16:57:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through December, is now available. From the press release: The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor St… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Is The Stock Market Finally Topping?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 04:00:00:000

Many investors maintain beliefs about the stock market which often have them looking the wrong way at the market turns. In fact, I can no longer count how many comments I see about how the Fed is what directs our stock market action, and it just makes me scratch my head. The main argument by… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Investor Worries Are Everywhere. Relax, This Is Still A Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 03:39:15:000

"The most important consideration when investing in the stock market is the primary trend of the equity markets." - Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) Reviewing the last two weeks of market activity proves to be quite interesting. The weak economic outlook from the ECB, continuing re… read more...

The Goldilocks Warning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 03:22:47:000

Market Review &amp; Recap Over the last couple of weeks, we discussed the "wild swings " in the market in terms of price movements from overbought, to oversold, and now back again. The quote below is from two week's ago but is apropos again this week. "Despite the underlying economi… read more...

Weekly Commentary: No One Knows How Monetary Policy Works

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 03:11:25:000

My interest was piqued by a Friday Bloomberg article (Ben Holland): "The Era of Cheap Money Shows No One Knows How Monetary Policy Works." "Monetary policy is supposed to work like this: cut interest rates, and you'll encourage businesses and households to borrow, invest and spend. It's not re… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of March 11-15

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-16 04:39:23:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has shifted from expansion to contraction - to see if the economy has reached a "turning point." My recession probability for … read more...

Price Indexes Say A Recession Is Not Close

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-16 03:07:00:000

This week we saw (finally) the price indices for February 2019 consumer prices, producer prices, and import prices. All showed low inflation and generally downward trends. What's interesting is that historically recessions have not occurred when the rate of inflation slows (or is low). R… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Shutdown Effects Over, Long-Term Forecast Is Neutral

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-16 02:31:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark… read more...

A Debt-Riddled System That Is Hitting The Wall

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 14:37:31:000

An elevated level of corporate debt, along with the high level of U.S. government debt, is likely to mean that the U.S. economy is much more interest rate sensitive than it has been historically. - Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed Fed officials always understate risks embedded … read more...

Technically Speaking For March 11-15

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 12:42:51:000

The Bank of Japan maintained its current interest rate policy along with yield curve control. Here is how they described the current state of the Japanese economy (emphasis added): Japan's economy is expanding moderately , with a virtuous cycle from income to spending operating, altho… read more...

In Case You Wonder How Monetary Madness Looks Like

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 12:29:18:000

Background Last week, officials at the European Central Bank ("ECB") made a U-turn, and after only 65 days since they moved to the sidelines, they've decided to step back in to shore up the struggling European banks. If liquidity is the name of the game , monetary policy is where the ru… read more...

How An Inflection Point In Wealth Inequality Will Lead To Lower Asset Prices

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 10:41:18:000

Originally posted at Data Data Everywhere: Discounting an Inflection Point in Wealth Inequality The chart below shows the wealthiest people in the USA has gained a greater share of the total wealth in the United States over the last 40 years. Globally people with more than 30 million d… read more...

March Business Conditions Monthly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 07:16:14:000

By Robert Hughes AIER's business cycle indicators held steady in February; government shutdown still limits economic data. AIER's Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index held steady at 42 in February while the Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators … read more...

To QT Or Not To QT? Irrespective, Buy Black Swan Insurance Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 06:58:35:000

Introduction A short digression is necessary, to support the central thrust of this article and tie it into the stock market. Homeostasis refers to the ability of an organism or environment to maintain stability in spite of change. The human body is full of examples of homeostasis. I… read more...

'The Most Attractive Buying Opportunity Of Our Lifetimes'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 04:50:46:000

10 years ago this week, I wrote a post here that I'm sharing again now because I think it's important to remember just how difficult it is to do the right thing in the markets at the right time. Things were so bleak back then that if you were optimistic you sounded and felt like an utter fool… read more...

Short And Sharp: Short And Shallow, Actually

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 04:17:00:000

By Seema Shah, Global Investment Strategist, Principal Global Investors Typically, when a central bank eases monetary conditions, risk assets rally. Last week, however, global equity markets sank in response to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to extend its forward guidance and ann… read more...

5 Decades Of Middle-Class Wages: February 2019 Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 00:00:54:000

By Jill Mislinski We've updated this series to include the February release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the February monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $38,942, down 11.6% from 45-plus years ago. The Bur… read more...

Less Optimism Among Individual Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 23:45:34:000

Bullish sentiment as seen through AAII's weekly survey of individual investors released Thursday morning showed another drop in bullish sentiment. This comes following the first weekly decline that equities have seen so far in 2019. The percentage of investors expressing optimism dropped to … read more...

The Differences Between The 1920s And The 2010s

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 14:31:03:000

As I observed in my previous article discussing seven ways in which our current decade resembles the 1920s, history may rhyme, but it does not repeat. For all the relevant similarities, there are also relevant differences - indeed, more differences than similarities. Perhaps the most obv… read more...

Index Investors May Soon Have A Chance To Beat The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 14:11:15:000

Most index investors recognize that investing in an index will produce no better than market returns while they are invested in the fund; however, this does not mean that those same investors cannot "outperform" the market. When I speak of index investing, I am primarily thinking of ETFs like … read more...

Boeing's 737-8 Max Issues Highlights Index Construction Issues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 13:25:43:000

The latest flight tragedy involving Boeings ( BA ) 737-8 Max plane has reignited air travel safety concerns that could pressure Boeings business in the near-term. D emand for its aircraft has been and is expected to continue to be powered by international air travel, particul… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 14

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 12:49:47:000

The disaster that is Brexit continues. Teresa May barely beat back a Parliamentary attempt to take the Brexit process away from her; the vote was 314-312. Parliament also voted for a delay in the process: Lawmakers voted 412 to 202 on Thursday to seek a delay in Britains withdrawa… read more...

The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - March 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 09:31:20:000

Note: The previous monthly update can be seen in the February 6 article titled, " The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - February 2019 . " There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I dont agree with the methodologi… read more...

Initial Jobless Claims Up Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 08:03:10:000

Initial Jobless Claims came in 4K above expectations at 229K on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from last week's 223K. This is near the upper end of the range jobless claims have been in for the past few months. It has also now been two months since claims last hit a new low of 200K. On the ot… read more...

Is The U.S. Growth Slowdown Stabilizing?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 05:46:39:000

Bloomberg reports that "there are reasons to expect the current slowdown (in the global economy) will prove short-lived." The same analysis may also apply for the US economy, according to The Capital Spectator's business-cycle analytics. Let's start with considering the global macro trend…. read more...

My Thoughts On The Cycle And Asset Allocation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 05:30:49:000

I always talk about or concern myself with what stocks will provide the best risk-adjusted returns over a 5-year or longer period, often seeking a double-digit annualized return. Nonetheless, asset allocation is equally important. Most investment advisers will tell you that 80/20 (equity and… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Are We Still In Opening Salvos Of A Bear Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 05:09:01:000

Market Intro CNBC: 11:40AM EST Asian shares ( AAXJ ) struggled yesterday, but European ( VGK ) and US ( SPY ) equities are on the rise. The market seems to be discounting in a delay in the bungled Brexit process. Of course, if British lawmakers request a punt on Brexit from the EU, … read more...

Sterling Off Highs, Waiting For Extension Vote

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 05:06:38:000

Thursday March 14: Five things the markets are talking about Market focus remains on the U.K and they are not done voting yet. Yesterday, U.K. MPs voted to reject a no-deal Brexit; it's not a legally-binding decision and it does not rule out the U.K. leaving the E.U., but it means MPs no… read more...

It's Just Fiscal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 13:00:11:000

Our working hypothesis is that fear drives the market, and fundamentals act as the scaffolding. It doesn't get any more fundamental than sovereign-level economics; the governments red ink = the private sectors black ink . When the government spends more tha… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 13

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 12:50:31:000

New orders for durable goods - a leading indicator - rose .4% in today's report . But the internals weren't as positive. The monthly change was -.1%; it has been stalling for the last six months: The Y/Y percentage change (on the right) is clearly moving lower. Although non-defense capita… read more...

The Bullish Cash For International Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 11:48:12:000

Selecting the best stocks in a particular asset class is very important, no doubt about that. However, it's easy to miss the forest for the trees when making investment decisions, and selecting the right asset classes at the right time can be even more crucial. When a particular sector of th… read more...

Will The 'Fed Put' Work On The Next Go-Around?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 11:22:28:000

The Federal Reserve's "180-degree turn" has worked swimmingly for borrowers and risk-takers alike. The 10-year yield has dropped from 3.24% to 2.62%. That may encourage households and businesses to lever up with more debt. Meanwhile, stocks are surging upward, reaching for the record heights e… read more...

Happy 10th Anniversary Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 11:21:09:000

Source: https://pxhere.com This is the fourth bull market anniversary piece published by 3D since my arrival at the firm in 3Q 2015. The prior three can be found here , here and here . From the market closing low reached on 3/9/2009, the S&amp;P 500 Index has achieved an annualized ret… read more...

Equities Mark 10-Year Bull Run

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 05:23:07:000

By Bluford Putnam The bull market in equities began a decade ago in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Its path ahead will depend on policies and their Read more … read more...

U.S. Jobs Report Shock Spooks The Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 03:25:08:000

Original Post By Stuart Burns Well, some folks have been talking about it for a while, but figures this week suggest the long-anticipated slowdown has arrived. Negative numbers out of China have been reported for some months now, particularly falling PMI figures suggesting a steadi… read more...

Still Waiting For Brexit Climax

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 02:56:41:000

Overview: The Brexit drama continues to command attention. A vote on leaving without an agreement will be held today, and if that fails, there will be a vote tomorrow on an extension. Meanwhile, the first increase in headline US CPI in four months failed to impress, as the year-over-year pac… read more...

Why Stocks Are 100 Times Better Than Cash Deposits

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 02:26:41:000

Everyone with any money - whether gained from savings or inheritance - faces the same question. What should I do with it? Fear of loss is natural, and even necessary. It makes us cautious. But a greater danger is to do nothing, in the face of uncertainties and doubts. Over a typical investmen… read more...

Video: The Fed Stooges

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 01:43:03:000

On Sunday night, 60 Minutes treated the American public to a sit-down interview with the current Federal Reserve chairman and his two immediate predecessors. Hilarity ensued. Not really… unless you enjoy gallows humor. In the below video, Chris explains why this relatively gentle puf... read more...

Technically Speaking For March 12

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 12:39:15:000

Parliament has rejected May's Brexit deal : Parliament rejected Prime Minister Theresa Mays withdrawal plan on Tuesday in a vote of 391 to 242. Last-minute negotiations with the E.U. were not enough to secure the support of hardliners in the prime ministers own Conservativ… read more...

Technically Speaking: Will The Next Decade Be As Good As The Last?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 12:08:05:000

In this past weekend's newsletter , we stated: This short-term oversold condition, and holding of minor support, does set the market up for a bounce next week which could get the market back above the 200-dma. The challenge, at least in the short-term remains the resistance level building … read more...

FZROX: Should Fidelity's 0% Expense Ratio Funds Be The Cornerstone Of Your Portfolio?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 11:25:39:000

Fidelity made waves in the fund space last year when it launched the Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund ( FZROX ) . It became the first fund to operate with not just a 0% expense ratio, there's also no minimum to invest and no fee to trade. It essentially becomes the first completely fee-f… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Spot VIX Below 14 As S&P Once Again Approaches Resistance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 10:06:41:000

Market Intro CNBC: 1:07PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are moving in a fairly tight range on Tuesday, after Monday's turn-around rally. Spot VIX is hanging below a 14-handle, though it nearly touched 18 in last week's commotion. Thoughts on Volatility I am pretty Trump … read more...

Small Business Rebounds Less Than Expected

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 09:28:41:000

After the steepest five-month decline since the Financial Crisis and the longest monthly losing streak since 1998, NFIB Small Business Confidence rebounded in February, although by a less than anticipated degree. While economists were expecting the headline index to bounce from 101.2 up to 102… read more...

2018 Q4 GPD: Sliding

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 09:01:46:000

What Goes Up Taxiarchos228 Not As Bad As I Feared But still, not that good. Coming out of Q3, I framed the short-term issues facing the US economy thusly: If you want one takeaway from this report, try this on: without changes to private inventories, this is a 1.2% prin… read more...

The Trump Administration Budget And Government Bond Yields

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 06:17:10:000

Lets assume that the US Congress passes the Trump Administration budget and things work out pretty much as the builders of the budget assumed. Well, use this as a starting point to work out the implications of the budget as it has been presented. To achieve this budget, it was assu… read more...

Wave Of Optimism Sweeps Through The Capital Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 05:19:19:000

Overview: Last minute statements meant to clarify what many MPs find to be the most odious part of the Withdrawal Bill; the backstop for the Irish border has goosed global equity markets even though it does not seem as if the Withdrawal Bill has changed one iota. And after the big rally in U… read more...

Charts Of The Moment: How Is The U.S. Consumer Doing?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 03:03:45:000

After drifting lower over the last several months, both U.S. consumer confidence and expectations popped in February. Late fourth-quarter events like the federal government shutdown and the broad-based selloff in equities were a drag on optimism. Chart 1 shows how same-store dollar volume trac… read more...

What A Late-Cycle Slowdown Means For Profit Margins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 01:56:18:000

The late-cycle deceleration in growth casts a shadow on corporate profit margins. Elga explains. We believe global economic activity should slow this year to a level closer to potential growth rates . What does this mean for corporate profits and margins, especially as the U.S. enters t… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 11

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 12:56:58:000

Inflation expectations are up modestly in the last few months: 5-year expectations are up 36 basis points while 10-year expectations increased 26 basis points (on an absolute basis). Both remain below the highs of 2018. Remember that inflation is directly linked to growth; the two rise and… read more...

Stock Market Correction Catalysts Are Lurking

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 11:50:17:000

Stocks are likely to remain volatile over the course of the next week. A stock market correction, or a 10% downslide, is a plausible possibility as well through the next few months. Stocks have priced in positive outcomes around the first quarter economy and Brexit, but global economic data co… read more...

Economics Or Philosophy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 07:27:04:000

"If it stinks, doesn't work, is incomprehensible and doesn't make sense - it's either economics or philosophy." . . . Raymond DeVoe Ray DeVoe was a friend I met when he was working at Legg Mason. He was one of the best writers on Wall Street, and to this day, I miss his wisdom and humor. W… read more...

Charts Implying Economic Weakness - March 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 06:19:55:000

Please note: This is the latest in a series of articles, the last being " Charts Implying Economic Weakness - February 2019." U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site, there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially… read more...

February Employment Update: Expansion On Track; S&P At Low End Of Fair Value

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 06:01:36:000

Economic Composite I updated my economic composite to reflect the release of the U.S. Labor Department's employment report on March 8. The report showed a rise in nonfarm employment of just 20,000 in February. The number was a disappointment against expectations of a gain of 180,000. Prelimi… read more...

Jobs, Other Data Signal Older Investors To Move Toward Cash

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 05:35:59:000

NEW YORK (March 8) - The December jobs report printed this morning at a deeply disappointing 20,000 new jobs. The consensus estimate had been just 181,000. Revisions for December (+5,000) and January (+7,000 jobs) netted just 12,000 more jobs. The revisions resulted in average three mont… read more...

Daily State Of The Market: Let's Call It Constructive

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 05:35:16:000

The fact that stocks pulled back a bit last week shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone. The S&amp;P 500 had enjoyed an historic joyride to the upside in a very short period of time. As in +19.2% in just 10 weeks. Along the way, stocks became overbought and sentiment got a little too op… read more...

Greenback Starts New Week Decidedly Mixed, With Brexit Anxiety Weighing On Sterling

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 04:22:08:000

Overview: Asian shares recovered from opening losses to finish mostly higher, with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 2% and India tacking on 1% after the election was called, starting April 11. European markets, led by energy, communication, and materials sectors, are up about 0.5% through mi… read more...

Valuations To The Rescue?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 03:15:00:000

Equities have wobbled a bit at the start of the month, but unless they lose the plot in coming weeks, it is fair to say that Q1 will be everything that Q4 wasnt - decent and calm. Indeed, the finer details reveal an even more striking dichotomy with the calamity that culminated in the … read more...

Blackout

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 02:55:15:000

We were delighted to get such positive feedback last week as several readers enjoyed our blog post. Several readers thought that we should spend more time talking about family issues and how it relates to money, spending and investing. Thanks to all for their feedback. We look forward to relat… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of March 4-8

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 14:21:48:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction -- to see if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." I've increased my recession probabilit… read more...

'Money For Nothing' By The 'Dire Desperates' At The ECB

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 11:44:09:000

Background Six months ago, 3.5-months before 2018 comes to an end, that we wrote about the European bluff , and asked: " How Long Can European Markets Survive Without The 'Big Brother' Help? ". To wit: the burning question now is not whether the ECB starts purchasing assets again rat… read more...

What Do Central Bankers Know?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 11:28:36:000

In last week's missive , we discussed a critical point concerning the bull run so far. "Despite the underlying economic and fundamental data, the markets have surged back to extremely overbought, extended, and deviated levels. You will note that with the exception of bond prices,… read more...

An Inflation And Policy Backdrop Unlike What Many Expected Affords Opportunity

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 11:27:12:000

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that as the conventional wisdom in policy and investment circles surrounding prospects for growth and inflation have shifted in 2019, so too have investment opportunities. We think 2018 will be remembered as a rolling, cross-asset-class bear market that… read more...

Analyzing The Strange Jobs Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 10:08:53:000

It is amazing how fast time flies sometimes as it seems like only yesterday that the market was reacting to the January jobs report. Here we are again though as the February report was released this morning (as of the time of writing). This report was shocking, to put it mildly, as the headlin… read more...

U.S. Job Growth Disappoints For February, But Long-Term Trends Are Still Strong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 08:49:07:000

Posted by Noelle Corum, Associate Portfolio Manager on March 8, 2019, in Fixed Income US nonfarm payrolls increased by a disappointing 20,000 1 jobs in February - markets had expected an increase of 180,000. 2 Contributing to the disappointment was the performance of key sector… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Q4 2018 Z.1 'Flow Of Funds'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 05:46:38:000

I've been anxiously awaiting the Fed's Q4 2018 Z.1 "Flow of Funds" report. It provided the first comprehensive look at how this period's market instability affected various sectors within the financial system. From ballooning Broker/Dealer balance sheets to surging "repo" lending to record Ban… read more...

February Jobs Report Raises Questions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 05:36:06:000

By Robert Hughes U.S. nonfarm payrolls added just 20,000 jobs in February, well below the consensus expectation of 180,000 and the smallest monthly gain since September 2017 (when just 16,000 jobs were created, reflecting the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma). The prior two months show… read more...

Brexit's Impact For Equity Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 04:59:52:000

By Christopher Gannatti, CFA, Head of Research, Europe Sometimes the best questions are also the toughest to analyze. For someone who moved to the U.K. in the last year, the "Brexit Question" has been important. But it's also important for U.S. investors. This year there have been dates,… read more...

Payrolls: Neither Good Nor Bad, Just More Uncertain

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 04:28:55:000

The BLS giveth, and the BLS taketh away. That's not really what has happened, of course, but for many it can seem that way. February's payroll report obviously stands in striking contrast to January's. The latter was a blowout, over +311k (revised), hyped near and far as proof of decoupling, t… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Tug Of War Is In Full Swing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 09:17:33:000

"Here is part of the trade off with diversification. You must be diversified enough to survive bad times, or bad luck, so that skill and good process can have the chance to pay off over the long term." - Howard Marks We pick up where we left off last week, only this time we note that t… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Wages Keep Growing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 08:21:21:000

Construction Spending Construction spending declined 0.6% in December, when it was expected to increase 0.3%, and the year-over-year rate fell 1.6%, which was the weakest growth rate in three years. What heavily weighed on this number was a 3.2% drop in single-family homes, which I expect … read more...

CDS II: To Fix Credit Default Swaps, Fix The Underlying Debt

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 07:00:00:000

The most important problems of the debt market are being laid at the feet of Credit Default Swaps (see my earlier article, CDS I, for example, CDS problems). But these market disasters are not flaws of the CDS markets themselves, but problems with the debt underlying CDS. The remedy for the pr… read more...

Solid Earnings Growth Tempers Recessionary Fears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 01:42:28:000

By George P. Maris, CFA &amp; Nick Maroutsos Portfolio Managers George Maris and Nick Maroutsos explain that hand-wringing over the U.S. yield curve may conceal positive signals from the corporate sector. Economic expansions do not last forever, and given recent softer data, coupled wi… read more...

Is Trade Predicting Improvement In The U.S. Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 01:30:00:000

There's good reason to keep your eyes on imports into the US as imports correlate well with GDP. This week the December trade data was released (delayed by the government shutdown) and showed the economy does have life. On the other hand, BLS employment showed the lowest growth of any month … read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: A Rebound As The Effects Of The Government Shutdown Fade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 01:30:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark … read more...

February's U.S. Jobs Report: Cause For Concern?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 21:39:27:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, filmed on International Women's Day, Senior Quantitative Investment Strategy Analyst Dr. Kara Ng, and Sophie Antal Gilbert, head of AIS business solutions, discussed the recent downward movements in U.S. equity markets. They also chatted abo… read more...

Big U.S. Stocks' Q4'18 Fundamentals

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 20:07:42:000

The widely-held mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets recently finished reporting their Q418 financial results. Because the tenor of stock markets changed radically last quarter, this latest earnings season is more important than usual. An extreme monster bull market suddenly ro… read more...

From 666 To 2,800 In 10 Years - Is The Stock Market A Discounting Mechanism Once Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 19:09:09:000

It has been a decade since the S&amp;P 500 ( SPY ) bottomed at the infamous level of 666 on March 9, 2009. I remember that day vividly, because it was the late Mark Haines, my favorite news anchor of all time, who called the market bottom the very next day. Shortly thereafter, on March 18, t… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of March 4-8

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 11:49:39:000

Despite the weak jobs report, the 3, 6, and 12-month moving averages of establishment job gains are still clustered around 200,000: The 3, 6, and 12-month moving averages are 186,000, 190,000, and 209,000 respectively. That doesn't mean this report isn't concerning - in fact, it's the third w… read more...

How Concerning Are Corporate Debt Levels?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 11:28:20:000

Equity markets have been tearing higher for over 2 months now. The S&amp;P 500 is up 18% since Dec. 24, 2018, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.81% over the same period. Heightened recession fears were one of the main culprits behind the plunge in equity prices in Q4 2018. Howeve… read more...

U.S. Labor Market Growth Stalled In February

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 09:43:29:000

Economists were looking for moderate slowdown for growth in February but the actual number delivered a huge downside miss. Hiring at US companies virtually ground to a halt last month, rising just 25,000 - a dramatic fall from January's blowout 308,000, the Labor Deparment reports. The ext… read more...

The Unemployment Rate Does Not Signal A Recession Soon: Update - March 8, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 08:40:29:000

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the February 2019 rate … read more...

February Jobs Report: The First Signs Of The Economic Slowdown Spreading To Jobs?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 07:33:48:000

Headlines +20,000 jobs added. U3 unemployment rate -0.2% from 4.0% to 3.8%. U6 underemployment rate -0.8% from 8.1% to 7.3% (New 20-Year Low). Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, bu… read more...

February Jobs Report: 20K New Jobs, Major Disappointment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 05:15:30:000

By Jill Mislinski This morning's employment report for February showed a 20K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was much worse forecasts. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. The Investing.com consensus was for 181K new jobs and the unemployment rate to drop to 3.9%. Here is an exc… read more...

Equities Slump On Growth Concerns Ahead Of U.S. Jobs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 04:52:35:000

Overview: A weak economic assessment in the Beige Book and an ECB that slashed growth forecasts have been followed by news that a nearly 21% slump in China's exports has marked the end of the dramatic equity rally that was seen in the first part of 2019 after the sharp losses late last year…. read more...

E-Mini S&P 500: New Lows At 2627 Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 04:00:09:000

This is the Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator (VC PMI) weekly update for March 6, 2019. Looking Back: VC PMI Bull Trap Predicted On February 26, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha titled, "The E-mini S&amp;P 500: It is a Bull Trap!" When that report was published the E-mini S&… read more...

Can The Bull Market Run For Another 10 Years?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 03:36:04:000

The current stock bull market, already the longest in U.S. history, turns 10 years old this month. It's been a phenomenally profitable time to participate, especially if you've stuck to an investment strategy that favors dividend-paying stocks. As you can see in the chart below, the amount o… read more...

Using The Shiller PE, The S&P 500 Won't Look Overvalued For Long

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 01:45:00:000

Most investors are familiar with the Shiller PE Ratio which also is known as the Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio, or CAPE. The concept behind the ratio developed by Robert Shiller is to smooth out the earnings portion of the denominator by using the 10-year average earnings … read more...

Winning A Trade War: Easier Said Than Done

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 09:24:19:000

Do you remember President Trump's tweet from March 2nd 2018 regarding how "easy" it is to win a trade war? Well, one year later, and winning a trade war seems anything but easy. Despite the many headlines (and tweets) that the US president has generated over the past year's regardin… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: European Growth Expectations Cause Stocks To Falter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 08:21:16:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:00PM EST US indices ( SPY , DIA , QQQ ) are down in Thursday's morning session, though off the lows (S&amp;P hit a low of 2742 this morning). The Russell 2K ( IWM ) is sitting unch. The sell-off is likely linked to a downgrade to European GDP growth estimates; E… read more...

5 Things We Think Could Go Right For Global Markets In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 06:20:00:000

By Rob Waldner, Chief Strategist and Head of Multi-Sector on March 5, 2019, in Fixed Income From the Fed, to Brexit, to China, we see positive signs that could support risk assets At Invesco Fixed Income, we often talk about the risks that are likely to upset global markets… read more...

Federal Debt Out Of Control: A 'New' Economic Paradigm?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 05:23:46:000

The Congressional Budget Office has released new projections for the federal deficit. For the next decade, the CBO is forecasting that federal deficits will average 4.4 percent of nominal Gross Domestic Product. This is up from a 2.9 percent average, which was achieved over the past 50 yea… read more...

The Fed - Dead Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 03:55:43:000

Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said, on Tuesday, it could be "several meetings" before the Fed has a clear enough read on the economy to take action on interest rates. It is the latest sign that the Fed is likely on hold, if not dead in its tracks. Top Fed officials have been … read more...

February 2018 Market Commentary: Mixed Signals Lead To Crossed Wires

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 03:25:26:000

Data Source: Bloomberg Source: istockphoto. Used with permission. Global equity markets have had a strong start to the year, especially tje U.S. mid- and small-cap stocks as well as industrial commodities, led by oil. Several professional investors are warning that the global risk i… read more...

Trade Concerns Strike Fear Into Market... A Counterpoint

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 01:39:44:000

Unfortunately this has become a constant topic on CNBCs website and the number one reason given for the markets current weakness (it appears to be their sworn duty to ascribe a reason to every slight jiggle, up or down, in the market). The reason I quote the on-line version o… read more...

EMU Looks To ECB

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 01:32:47:000

Overview: The ECB meeting is today's highlight. A dovish signal is expected. The euro remains pinned near its lows ahead it. The global equity market rally in January and February is faltering this week. Asian equities were mixed, but the Nikkei eased for the third consecutive session. Altho… read more...

China - A Critical Global Growth Engine, Despite Deceleration

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 21:09:00:000

Despite U.S. trade wars, China will stick to its growth target and fiscal easing in the short-term, deleveraging in the medium-term and rebalancing in the long-term. That's the message of Premier Li's report. Released on Monday at the annual session of the National People's Congress ((NPC)), P… read more...

Market Update: Impact Of The Unemployment Number

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 20:38:58:000

By OpenMarkets With a data dependent Fed, this Fridays unemployment number could determine how dovish or hawkish the Fed will be in the next two months, says Jack Bouroudjian. He also looks at how the number and the Feds response could weigh on the yield curve. … read more...

Technically Speaking For March&#xA0;6

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 11:56:04:000

From today's Beige Book : Once again, the adjective "moderate" describes most economic activity. The shutdown's impact was far broader than reported; it affected half the districts. This was the first time I've seen a report that weather kept consumer activity low. Political uncertaint… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: VIX Pops Nearly 6% On Small Drop In S&P

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 07:55:54:000

Market Intro CNBC: 11:51AM EST I don't know if a 55-basis point drop in the Dow ( DIA ) constitutes "Breaking News"… but there you have it. The S&amp;P 500 ( SPY ) is also down about half a percent, while the higher-beta NASDAQ ( QQQ ) and Russell 2K ( IWM ) have shed closer to a perce... read more...

Demographics Pose Challenge To U.S., China Growth In 2020s

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 07:15:35:000

Originally published March 1, 2019 By Bluford Putnam Forget about the trade war or tax policy, the main challenge to growth in the U.S. and China, the world's two largest economies, is demographics. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: 13 Charts Tell The Story

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 05:36:47:000

Originally published on March 5 It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. So, this week, I've decided to try and sum up the keys to the current market environment with a series of charts and graphs. I started out looking for five key charts. That quickly turned into ten. And bef… read more...

Early Estimates Point To Ongoing Slowdown For U.S. Q1 GDP Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 03:41:00:000

Preliminary nowcasts for US economic growth in the first quarter suggest that the slowdown in 2018's second half will continue, based on a set of estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The degree of the deceleration remains open for debate, of course, in part because it's still early in … read more...

U.S. Econ Watch: Searching For Clues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 03:28:06:000

By Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy After at least a month-long delay, fixed-income investors have finally been receiving economic data. With a number of government agencies closed due to the recent shutdown, 2019 began with a data vacuum, but now it looks like we are making u… read more...

Trade Deals And Political Realities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 02:52:00:000

By Bluford Putnam Could the USMCA accord among the US, Canada and Mexico, and a potential US-China trade deal get approval from the Democrats-led House of Representatives? Editors Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more …. read more...

Macro Musings Podcast: Current State Of The Economy, The Green New Deal, And Populism On The Left And Right

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 00:44:09:000

Michael Strain is the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Previously, Michael worked in the Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau and in the Macroeconomics Research Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He joins the show tod… read more...

Why Ray Dalio Changed His Recession Prediction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 00:30:21:000

In this video we go over a Ray Dalio's latest recession prediction and what it means for the stock market. You can read Ray's full article here . Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Read more … read more...

Happy 10th Birthday To The 'Most Unloved Bull Market In History'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-05 22:20:01:000

By Gary Alexander A decade ago, on Thursday, March 5, 2009, bearish sentiment on the stock market hit an all-time high. The weekly poll of the American Association of Individual Investors ((AAII)) is widely considered to be a contrarian indicator, since investors tend to be super-bearish a… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 5

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-05 11:39:18:000

The latest ISM non-manufacturing report was very bullish . The headline number increased 3 points to 59.7. The sub-categories numbers were especially encouraging. Production rose 5 to 64.7; new orders added 7.5 to 65.2; new exports advanced 4.5 to 55. The anecdotal comments contained some c… read more...

Dollar Remains Firms As China Cuts Growth Target And Taxes, While EMU PMI Surprises On Upside

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-05 04:35:18:000

Overview: It is an eventful day, but the capital markets are taking it in stride. Equity markets are mixed. Asia may have been weighed down by China's shaving its growth target and announced around CNY2 trillion (~$300 bln) in tax cuts to support the economy, though Chinese stocks edged high… read more...

Timing The Market Is Possible: Here Are Some Lessons Learned

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-05 03:33:49:000

The idea of anticipating broad market or individual stock movements and profiting from them has drawn my (and I bet many of my readers') attention for a while. The heated debate over whether one can time the ups and downs of asset prices has even produced two well-defined and distinct groups o… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 23:16:15:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 4, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 22.81% gain, and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 15.24%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 12.73%. Coming in last is India… read more...

Peter Schiff: We're Not Borrowing Ourselves Rich; We're Borrowing Ourselves Broke

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 23:06:25:000

By SchiffGold Peter Schiff has been saying that despite the recent stock market rally and all of the optimism about an end to the trade war , a recession is a done deal . There is plenty of economic data to back up despite the recent economic growth. In his most recent podcast, Peter Sch… read more...

Liquidity Trumps Fundamentals

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 23:05:33:000

The market has been back in risk-on mode but with some strange internals as well as an ongoing disconnect with fundamentals. It has priced in a joyous cornucopia of Goldilocks assumptions: A return to global central bank liquidity and price supports A reversal of China's deleveraging ca… read more...

Best Start To Year - For Stocks - Since Late '80s, Early '90s?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 23:00:17:000

CNBC was throwing all these headlines out on Friday, after the February '19 month-end benchmark results were calculated, and it appears that in 2019, the Dow 30, S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq are all on track for their best start to the year since either 1987 or 1991, probably depending on the in… read more...

Top 5 Charts Of The Week: Global Economic Pulse And Investor Sentiment Signals

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 20:24:26:000

Here's a look at some of the stand-out charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering some of the key global macro trends, as well as some of the more interesting risks and opportunities across asset classes. Hope you enjoy! 1. China vs. USA - Economic Pulse: This chart co… read more...

Are Trade Headlines Hiding A 'Tech Cold War'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 20:12:50:000

Originally published November 23, 2018 As news of a potential US-China trade deal makes headlines, we believe the more important story is the potential for a tech cold war. The Trump administration has made it clear that it views China as a strategic technological com… read more...

U.S.-China Trade Tensions Have Eased, Will Growth Revive?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 19:44:07:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop The easing of trade tensions between the United States and China appears to have lifted Chinese stocks, which has helped boost overall emerging market ((EM)) stocks this year. Investors seem optimistic that China's economy will finally begin to recover from the sharp sl… read more...

Are Bulls Painting Themselves In A Corner?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 12:59:55:000

An 11% rally in the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) has done much to lift Wall Streets spirits over the outlook for both the global trade and U.S. economic outlooks. Much of the credit for the impressive recovery rally in the SPX is due to the Feds about-face on its previously tight mo… read more...

Growth-Oriented Leadership Tries To Reemerge As Fed/China Concerns Wane

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 12:04:46:000

Fed Flips and China Deal Looking More Likely The monthly chart below shows the performance of technology stocks ( XLK ) relative to the S&amp;P 500 ( SPY ). After the 2016 U.S. presidential election, growth-oriented tech emerged as a clear market leader. Concerns about Fed policy and ong… read more...

Technically Speaking For March 4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 11:47:53:000

The trade war with China may be coming to an end. From the NY Times: The Trump administration is close to a trade deal with China that would roll back tariffs on both sides of the Pacific but may do little to achieve the substantive changes to Chinas economy that the United Sta… read more...

Sacagawea?!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 07:15:18:000

Sacagawea lived from May 1788 to December 1812. She was a Lemhi Shoshone woman who is best known for her help guiding the Lewis and Clark Expedition in achieving their mission objectives by exploring thousands of miles from North Dakota to the Pacific Ocean. She helped establish cultural conta… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: The Message From The Models - The Bulls Are In Charge, But...

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 06:35:02:000

It was a busy weekend of birthday celebrations (we had 2) and important family events in my household (our youngest is moving into her first apartment!) and as such, I didn't take the opportunity to spend a couple hours of quality time at the keyboard. While I've got a good start on a missiv… read more...

Your Legacy And Fortnite

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 04:35:15:000

My youngest of three is a 15-year old boy and we talk investing a bit. It helps me to keep up on the latest trends on where teenagers are spending their money, and I enjoy spending time with my son. He has been talking to me about the waning interest in the game Fortnite . More interesting to… read more...

Market Commentary - February 28, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 03:40:00:000

Read more … read more...

Political Theater

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 03:38:43:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities Political dramas are coming to a head, but we think this economic cycle still has an act or two to play out. On Wednesday of last week, the U.S. Congress heard Jerome Powell indicate that the Federal Reserve was read… read more...

Podcast 3/3/19: Week In Review And Share Buybacks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 03:36:50:000

The Investing Caffeine podcast is designed to wake up your investment brain with weekly overviews of financial markets and other economic-related topics. Episode 2 Market Review, Stock Ideas, and The Weekly Rant: Share Buybacks. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this artic… read more...

Alhambra Review And Outlook March 2, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 03:30:56:000

News about the week and what Alhambra expects coming up. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

An Early Spring? The Markets Seem To Think So

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 07:48:14:000

Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early spring this year, which no doubt comes as a surprise to parts of the country still in the grips of bone-chilling cold and record snowfall. Then again, all of February seemed to be Groundhog Day in the cinematic sense of the term. In a repeat from January, s… read more...

Are Equities Back In Goldilocks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 07:21:48:000

The S&amp;P 500 is up 19% since Dec. 24, 2019. A goldilocks scenario for stocks is usually when the Fed is dovish while the economy is reflecting strength. Lately, the Fed has remained willing to remain patient with rate hikes, even amid some improving economic conditions. This has allowed sto… read more...

Bull Run Reaches Exhaustion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 06:24:21:000

On Tuesday, we discussed a very important point with respect to the bull run so far: "Despite the underlying economic and fundamental data, the markets have surged back to extremely overbought, extended, and deviated levels. The chart table below is published weekly for our RIA PRO subs… read more...

A Contrarian And A Calculator + The Deep Value Case For Shipping Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 05:29:27:000

Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings Latest Articles/Podcasts/Videos - The Fed Put Is Real and China Stimulates - Alex updates us all on China's surprise stimulus and the Fed's epic flip from hawk to dove. Macro Ops Podcast: Alex, Tyler, Chris, and Mr. B - Chri… read more...

Dovish Hold By The ECB And Uptick In U.S. Wages Will Underscore Divergence

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 04:26:21:000

The important events take place in the second half of the week ahead: the ECB meeting and the US employment report. A dovish hold by the ECB is the most likely outcome. US jobs growth is bound to slow from the heady 304k gain in January, but there won't be anything in it that lends credence … read more...

Weekly Commentary: Just The Facts 3/1/2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 03:14:54:000

For the Week The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% (up 11.8% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 11.6%). The Utilities slipped 0.3% (up 8.0%). The Banks increased 0.6% (up 17.2%), while the Broker/Dealers were little changed (up 13.8%). The Transports fell 1.2% (up 14.1%). The S&amp;P 400 Midc… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Beware The Ides Of March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 03:00:51:000

While there is some religious significance in Roman culture, the Ides of March is best known as the date on which Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 BC at a meeting of the Roman Senate. At the time, a seer named Plutarch (some claim that the seer was named Spurinna) had warned that somethi… read more...

Yes, The Fed's Target Is Now Too High. Why Do You Ask?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 02:19:48:000

Even though the first quarter of 2019 is only two-thirds over, practically all of the private-sector decisions that will determine the level of economic growth from the first quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019 have already been made. Moreover, because of a statistical quirk, 8/9 of t… read more...

It's All About Who Reaps The Gains (Asset Bubbles) And Who Eats The Losses (Stagnating Wages)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 02:15:33:000

Even if the Fed hadn't institutionalized perverse incentives to borrow and speculate in asset bubbles, the economy would still be generating far fewer winners than losers. If we scrape away the shuck and jive (a difficult task when the majority of what the media presents is shuck and jiv… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is Baked Into Current Market Prices?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 01:28:22:000

We have an important calendar with employment and housing news. Some important market worries have been avoided, at least for a time. What is behind the rebound in stocks. Trying to explain the reasons for changed market perceptions is a wonderful topic for pundits! Anyone can play since no cr… read more...

A Closer Look At Debt And The Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 10:48:06:000

LIZ ANN SONDERS: Today, I want to tackle a more evergreen topic, which is the implications on the economy of a high and ever-rising burden of debt. But I want to first differentiate between the deficit and debt. Deficit - the budget deficit - is simply the differential between what's … read more...

Global Growth Hinges On China's Big Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 10:29:22:000

By Ed Moya Mixed economic data, a roller coaster ride in trade, and fresh geopolitical risks saw US equities edge higher on the week, while the dollar was little changed. With the data dependent Fed likely to be on hold for at least the first half of the year, financial markets will closel… read more...

Are China's Fiscal Stimulus Measures Starting To Pay Off?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 09:56:29:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Adam Goff, managing director, investment practice, and Sophie Antal Gilbert, head of AIS business solutions, discussed the latest read on the U.S. economy. They also dug into Chinese manufacturing activity and MSCI's announcement that it wil… read more...

From Gloom To Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 09:45:29:000

Gloomy clouds rolled in late last year in the form of a government shutdown; U.S.-China trade war tensions; hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate policies; a continued special counsel investigation by Robert Mueller into potential Russian election interference; a change in the Congressional ba… read more...

The Long Expansion Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 09:37:34:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on March 1, 2019 by James Hamilton here . The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. That's below the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the… read more...

BEA Backs Up Census; Residual Seasonality Struck A Month Too Soon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 02:17:48:000

By Jeffrey P. Snider Over the last decade, the US economy has been experiencing "residual seasonality." It has begun each year unusually weak. For economists expecting it take off in each and every one, this is more than a thorny contradiction. When it happened again in 2015, at the worst … read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Short-Term Forecast Still Negative

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 02:09:00:000

. Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "… read more...

Patience Grasshopper! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap 03.01.19

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 01:18:23:000

By SchiffGold Jerome Powell went to Capitol Hill this week and continued to preach patience. In other words, the Powell Pause is still firmly in play. In fact, the Fed Chair confirmed that balance sheet reduction is a done deal. But why this sudden patience? In this episode of the Friday G… read more...

Leveraged ETF Decays - Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 00:30:20:000

I measure once a month the decay of major leveraged ETFs. It may be useful for anyone using leveraged ETFs for investing, trading or hedging. Where does the decay come from? Most of the time, a leveraged ETF does worse than the underlying asset leveraged by the same factor. This relative… read more...

GDP Report Points To Solid Economic Forecast For 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 23:45:04:000

The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace in the fourth quarter, boding well for the outlook of this year and next. According to the delayed release of GDP data , the economy grew by 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter (after adjustment for seasonality and inflation, and computed at a compound annu… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of February 25-March 1

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 12:02:44:000

Despite the somewhat negative tenor of the leading economic indicators, there is a decent amount of good economic news. Fed Chair Powell notes that the labor market is in very good shape (emphasis added): Nearly all job market indicators are better than a few years ago, and many are at … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Too Quiet?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 09:01:26:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:47PM EST Spot VIX is aiming at a 13-handle as we wrap up a fairly sleepy week of trade for US equities ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ). All the indexes are trading near their five-month highs. Econoday The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at the low end of estimat… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of February 25-March 1

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 08:28:33:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to determine if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." Conclusion: My recessio… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - It's All About Wage Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 07:30:14:000

Wholesale Inventories Wholesale inventories rose 1.1% in December, which was the fifth consecutive monthly increase, as sales declined 1%. This resulted in an inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.33, which looks a lot like what we saw before the slowdown in the rate of economic growth to 1.6% i… read more...

My Current View Of The S&P 500 Index: March 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 06:21:02:000

The stock market continued its rally from January. The market, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 index, gained 2.97% in February. As for my pension plan assets, I had a negative 0.11% return in February due to being 100% allocated in AGG. Consequently, both of my investment objectives were not me… read more...

2018 Q4 Prints At Just 2.6% As Economy Slows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 03:59:21:000

Gross Domestic Product growth for the fourth quarter of 2018, or "2018Q4 GDP", printed yesterday morning at 2.6 percent, at the consensus estimate. The release had been delayed about a month from the government shutdown. The print was 80 bps below the final 3.4 percent reading of the last quar… read more...

A 7% Rally In The S&P 500 Index?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 03:18:24:000

In a dull market environment, its not uncommon for those who make a living writing about stocks to resort to exaggeration. With the major averages basically treading water, its hard to resist the temptation to conjure up exciting scenarios for the broad market outlook. That app… read more...

Trade Against Pension Fund Constraints For Better Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 01:33:02:000

My piece last week, " Another Great Trade You've Probably Never Heard Of ," generated a fair number of page views, comments, and emails. Since there seems to be a lot of interest, I'd like to expand on some of the ideas and show more of how you can implement it, with some more explanations and… read more...

Macro Ops Podcast: Alex, Tyler, Chris And Mr. B Talk Macro Intelligence Report, Global Macro In The 90s, Value, Systems Trading, Volatility, And Wealth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 00:29:51:000

Chris hosts an epic 2.5+ hour Macro Ops roundtable with Alex Barrow, Tyler Kling and Mr. B. Mr. B gets a call sign update to Mr. Bean though that did not go as well as he had hoped. This is a monster podcast, unedited, long form. We start off right away with Alex talking abo… read more...

Markets Rise On U.S.-China Trade. But Will It Last?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 23:58:13:000

The U.S. says it will delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods and that a trade deal between the two largest economies in the world could be coming soon. What could this mean for investors and the markets? Kim Parlee talks to Jacky He, Client Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Read mo… read more...

U.S. Economy Standing Over A Cliff

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 18:00:50:000

America has been hiking up a steep mountain and finally summitted. Now, they're looking out upon a vast mountainscape and see only the bottom. GDP is made up of four parts: consumer spending, private investment, government expenditures, and net exports. The U.S. achieves most of its growth … read more...

Are Recession Fears Easing?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 15:46:24:000

One of the main reasons we witnessed a slump in US equity prices in Q4 2018 was due to heightened fears of a recession on the horizon. Both domestic and global economic conditions are notably slowing down, which induced many to believe that the economy will not be able to handle further intere… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: GDP Growth Comes In At High End Of Expectations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 15:20:49:000

Market Intro CNBC: 1:45PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) have see-sawed in a fairly narrow range over the course of the last forty-eight hours or so: S&amp;P futures currently record a one-day band of 2781 through 2796. Spot VIX remains parked near the 15-handle, with a bit… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - February 28, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 10:02:38:000

The BCI at 250.2 is below last week's 250.9, and remains below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 95.4. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.8 is above last weeks 9.7. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to dro… read more...

Still Plenty Of Pessimism To Go Around

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 09:37:08:000

Despite the best start for the market in over 30 years, retail investors arent exactly lining up to buy stocks. Lingering fears from the December panic remain and to date, there are no signs that investor confidence levels have increased, even after an uninterrupted rally in the last t… read more...

Trump Walks Away From North Korea, Should Beijing Worry?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 07:35:31:000

Overview: News that the US-North Korean summit ended abruptly without an agreement spurred losses in equities and gains in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. US President Trump willingness to walk away from the talks is important in and of itself, but it also sends a warning not to go all in … read more...

U.S.-China Trade Talks Making Progress, Trump Says, But What Could A Deal Look Like?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 04:01:18:000

Original Post By Stuart Burns When is a poor deal a bad deal? That may be the question we are asking in a few weeks' time after U.S. President Donald Trump and China's president, Xi Jinping, meet sometime in March at Mar-a-Lago, Trump's Palm Beach resort. Trump is tweeting a deal… read more...

Weekly Edge: Historic Stock Market Rally Treads Water... Patiently

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 02:50:34:000

By Ansh Chaudhary After the market experienced its worst-performing December since the Great Depression, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index have started this year with historic rallies. According to CNBC , "This is the first time since 1964 that the Dow has … read more...

Don't Dismiss The Dire Message From 'The Index Of The Volume Of Speculation'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 02:29:16:000

"Even the most circumspect friend of the market would concede that the volume of brokers' loans - of loans collateraled by the securities purchased on margin - is a good index of the volume of speculation." - John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash, 1929 January margin debt figures wer… read more...

Macro Update - February 26, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 01:42:00:000

Read more … read more...

Technically Speaking For February 27

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 16:46:07:000

Is Brexit dead? Not yet. But the possibility of a hard Brexit is certainly lower. Yesterday, Teresa May promised that she would allow a vote to delay Brexit. This isn't a permanent deferment; under EU rules, all EU countries would have to agree to an extension beyond July, which means that… read more...

Peter Schiff: Chinese Trade Deal Isn't Going To Make America Great Again (Video)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 15:11:54:000

By SchiffGold The US and China are reportedly getting closer to working out a trade deal. The Chinese have indicated they will import more US natural gas, semiconductors and soybeans. Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT to talk about it. He said that no matter what ultimately comes out of… read more...

Median Household Income In January 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 10:23:49:000

Median household income in the United States rose to $63,688 in January 2019, a 0.3% increase over the Sentier Research's estimate of $63,517 for December 2018. The following chart shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States… read more...

Dollar Trades Heavily, While Prospects Of A Softer And Later Brexit Send The Sterling Higher

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 07:21:13:000

Overview: As the North American session is about to begin, the markets await developments in the UK House of Commons where a vote is expected today on Prime Minister May's proposal to hold votes on around March 12 on the Withdrawal Bill and no deal. However, perceptions of a reduced likeliho… read more...

Tariff Worries And U.S. Business Investment, Take Two

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 06:01:52:000

By David Altig, executive vice president and research director in the Atlanta Fed's Research Department; Nick Bloom, the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University; Steven J. Davis, the William H. Abbott Distinguished Service Professor of International Business and Econom… read more...

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles In America Get Pricked

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 04:54:23:000

San Francisco Bay Area and Seattle lead with biggest multi-month drops since 2012; San Diego, Denver, Portland, Los Angeles decline. Others have stalled. A few eke out records. San Francisco and San Diego are catching the Seattle cold, and others are sniffling too, as the most splendid hou… read more...

Volatile Markets: Are High-Frequency Traders To Blame?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 04:21:42:000

By Stephen H. Dover, CFA, Executive Vice President, Head of Equities Our Head of Equities, Stephen Dover, takes a look at what's driving growth in high-frequency trading. He also explains why the algorithms behind the trading can lead to bouts of increased market volatility that may create… read more...

Deal Or No Deal, The U.S. And China Economic Struggle Will Continue

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 04:06:28:000

As markets jolt about on talk of US-China trade concessions, the broader imbalances and conflicts between the two nations will not be easily resolved. China's slowing economy and President Trump facing re-election in 2020 seem to point toward the two largest economies making a modest c… read more...

The Market Is Getting Boring - And That's Great News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 04:03:15:000

By Gary Alexander The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. H.L. Mencken The Dow Jones Industrials finally surpassed 26,000 aga… read more...

The Market Is Overbought And Likely To Deliver Slower, More Selective Gains

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 03:58:12:000

I hate to be a party pooper, but I have to tell you that the stock market is grossly overbought. According to our friends at Bespoke Investment Group, 70.8% of the stocks in the S&amp;P 500 are now overbought, which is the highest level in nearly three years (since March 2016). This 70% overbo… read more...

Technically Speaking For February 26

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 16:48:45:000

Fed Chairman Powell on risks to economic growth (emphasis added): While we view current economic conditions as healthy and the economic outlook as favorable, over the past few months we have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals. Financial markets became more volatile toward … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: U.S. Stocks Yawn On Home Depot Earnings Miss

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 15:07:26:000

Market Intro CNBC: 2:19PM EST S&amp;P futures ( SPY ) made it to a daily low of 2784 before taking the rebound higher to virtually unchanged. While Home Depot ( HD )'s earnings announcement weighed stocks ( DIA , QQQ ) in the earlier part of the session, US equities have mostly manage… read more...

More Evidence That The Bears Have It Dead Right

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 12:20:53:000

Source: public domain In my last article, " The Bears Have it Right: Economy went Polar Opposite of Bullish Predictions ," I laid out my first prediction for 2019 - a recession by summer. I don't want the following revelations and facts that I have since come across to get lost in comments I… read more...

E-Mini 500 S&P: It Is A Bull Trap!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 11:21:10:000

First Filter: 9-day Moving Average and Trend Momentum On Friday, the E-mini S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,791. The close gave us an indication that as we come into this week there is a bullish trend momentum because the price closed above the 9-day moving average price of 2,658. This is th… read more...

Technically Speaking: Sell Today? Risk Vs. FOMO

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 09:50:37:000

The market is downright bullish. There is little reason to argue the point given the bullish trend since the December 24th lows. Of course, such is not surprising given the Fed's dovish turn from tightening monetary policy to quietly putting the "punch bowl" back on the table. But yet,… read more...

In Which I Am The Only One Crushed By December's Wholesale Inventories

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 09:37:55:000

Source: Axisadman Inventories Are Everything Reviewing the Q3 2018 GDP report, I wrote this : If you want one takeaway from this report, try this on: without changes to private inventories, this is a 1.2% print, not 3.5% 1 - inventories accounting for a stunning 65% of growth in the… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 09:32:06:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through February 25, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 20.12% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 15.24%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 11.57%. Coming in last is In… read more...

Brexit Dilution Lifts Sterling, While Yesterday's Equity Rally Fades, Powell Awaited

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 09:28:49:000

Overview: The increased likelihood that Brexit is delayed and the possibility of a second referendum is helping lift the sterling. As has been the case for most of the time since the June 2016 referendum, the prospects of a softer and/or later Brexit is understood as sterling-positive. The o… read more...

Will The Slowdown In Earnings Derail The Rally In The S&P 500?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 07:05:37:000

The S&amp;P 500 is up around 19.50% since Christmas Eve, boosted by a dovish Fed and positive developments from US-China trade negotiations. Meanwhile, global economic growth has been slowing, which has dragged S&amp;P 500 corporate earnings lower as well. The deteriorating earnings outlook is… read more...

Not Surprisingly, It Wasn't Italy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 04:57:56:000

It's so obscure now, I actually had to go back and reread what was going on there at the time. On May 29, the mainstream consensus was how Italian populists were screwing up Europe. Global bond markets were supposed to be selling off, massacred as global recovery took hold. Instead, worldwide … read more...

China-U.S. Rivalry And Gold

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 15:46:12:000

It's unimaginable what great progress China made in the last forty years. The rise of such economic power triggered many fears (or hopes) about the future international order. We invite you to read our today's article about the rivalry between China and the US and find whether the Red Dragon w… read more...

Chicago Fed: Slower Growth In January

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 15:28:26:000

By Jill Mislinski "Index points to slower economic growth in January." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed Nat… read more...

How To Identify A Bear Market Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 13:07:55:000

The remarkable rebound in the U.S. stock market from the lows in late December has resulted in gains that the analysts at Goldman Sachs rightly point out already constitute banner returns for an entire calendar year. History is replete with examples of major recoveries following big sell-offs,… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: S&P 2800 Has Been The Area Where Things Get Testy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 12:19:41:000

Market Intro SA: 10:04AM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are at it again, reportedly rallying on the prospects of the Trump Administration delaying tariff deadlines on Chinese goods. Investing.com Spot VIX is taking the news hard, down 7.3% in Monday's open. This marks… read more...

National Treasure, National Treasury, National Debt

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 10:51:31:000

I was traveling last week seeing portfolio managers and doing gigs for our financial advisors and their clients. I have been doing such events for much of the past six months. The recurring question from clients is, What about the national debt? First, I would point out t… read more...

Warning Signal Ignored - Retail Sales Miss May Mean GDP Disappointment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 10:28:28:000

When monthly retail sales were reported for December earlier this month, they were described by various market watchers as disappointing, suspect and possibly burdened by extraordinary events. By all accounts, Decembers month-to-month decline marked the worst such drop since Septembe… read more...

It's Time To Get Excited About U.S. Small Caps

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 10:26:59:000

By Christopher Gannatti, CFA, Head of Research, Europe When the VIX hit 36 at the end of December 2018, the last thing we would have thought would be that risk-on strategies might have a strong month in January 2019. It would have represented a strong trend reversal. But it's exactly wha… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets:The Driving Force Behind The Current Action

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 09:59:37:000

One of the most important lessons I have learned about the business of investing is the drivers of the market action change over time. Sometimes dramatically so. It is for this reason that no one, I repeat, no one, has ever perfected the game for any length of time. You see, like golf, the con… read more...

Another Bearish Signal Reversed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 09:45:23:000

Investors watched the market through the first two months of 2019 in awe as risk appetite came racing back into global markets. On the heels of the Christmas Eve 2018 market low, sentiment shifted into a full risk-on mode, with the procyclical "value" and "size" factors outperforming the more … read more...

SPY: 5 Reasons Why Stocks Are Headed Even Higher From Here

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 09:34:20:000

Source: Ibankcoin.com The S&amp;P 500/SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY ) is at a critical juncture right now. SPY at $280 (2,800 SPX/S&amp;P 500) represents a crucial technical resistance level. Furthermore, stocks have been on a tear since markets bottomed late last year, are now signif… read more...

The man who called the small-cap rally now sees record highs ahead

via: CNBC at 2019-02-24 17:00:00:000

No summary available. read more...

The Fed Mentioned 'Volatility' 9 Times In Latest FOMC Meeting Minutes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 15:48:26:000

Volatility is back. After a long period of abnormally low volatility, it has now returned to impair the Feds outlook for the future path of monetary policy. There was a notable increase in the number of times the Fed mentioned the word volatility in its latest FOMC meet… read more...

Huge Fed Unwind Clouds Trek To New Highs For Equity ETFs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 13:28:12:000

Today, I show the daily charts with their key technical levels. SURPRISE! The Fed drained $47 billion from its balance sheet during the week ended Feb. 20. Last week we heard dovish comments from Fed officials and from FOMC minutes released on Wednesday, Feb. 20. I thought that the fe… read more...

Crescat Capital: China Is Already In Recession, Get Ready For The Implosion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 12:36:27:000

Original post Market update from Crescat Capital's latest email to investors. Dear Investors: There is indeed a business cycle, and timing it ahead of key inflection points is key to successful long-term investing. Based on our analysis, we are heading into a bear market in 2019 th… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of February 18-22

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 12:06:37:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to see if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." My recession probability in the next 6… read more...

If A Recession Shows Up In 2020, Who Will Have Predicted It?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 10:36:54:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on Feb. 23, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . Recessions, once they are underway, happen fast - a lot faster than expansions. Who's forecasting recessions, according to the WSJ February survey (the February Survey of Professional Forecast… read more...

Unbridled Market Euphoria Rooted In Optimism And Hope

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 09:51:08:000

A Trade Agreement Is Not A Silver Bullet After a terrible December, stock markets have soared with renewed vigor, tearing the faces off bears that thought their time had come. A great deal of the market advance has been based on optimism a new trade deal will occur between America and Chin… read more...

Lethe

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 08:54:30:000

"Forgiveness is the fragrance that the violet sheds on the heel that has crushed it." - Mark Twain Looking at the continuation of the rally seen in January, with markets being more oblivious to macro data given the return of the central banking support narrative, when it came to selecting … read more...

Bulls Charge Into Economic Slowdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 08:15:35:000

Last weekend , we discussed the two things driving the markets currently: " The first is the Fed. As we discussed with our RIA PRO subscribers last week, "Today, [Cleveland Fed Reserve Governor Loretta Mester] all but put the kibosh on further rate hikes and, per Mester'… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Is The Stock Market Stampeding Towards Another Cliff?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 08:00:00:000

Albert Einstein once said: Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions. To Mr. Einstein, it was quite clear that people have their biases, and it is extrem… read more...

January 2019 Data Update 9: The Pricing Game

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-23 10:52:02:000

In my last eight posts, I looked at aspects of corporate behavior from investments to financing to dividend policy, using the data that I collected at the start of 2019, to examine what companies share in common, and what makes them different. In summary, I found that the rise in risk premiums… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Weakening But Sustainable Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-23 08:22:54:000

Durable Goods Orders Orders for durable goods rose 1.2% in December, but when we exclude transportation, the increase was just 0.1%. What is troublesome is that the component which measures business investment (capital spending) fell 0.7% in December, while November's figure was revised do… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Elusive Stock Market Pullback Remains Just That. The 'Melt Up' Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-23 07:15:25:000

"That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains." - Steve Jobs The Dow, Nasdaq and the Russell 2… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Short-Term Forecast Worsens

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-23 06:17:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark… read more...

REITs Extend Rally To 7 Straight Weeks, Homebuilders Continue Surge

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-23 06:12:49:000

Real Estate Weekly Review Luck appears to have turned for the long-meandering REIT sector in 2019. The broad-based REIT ETF ( VNQ ) turned higher on the week in the final minutes of trading, extending its weekly rally to a record-setting seventh consecutive week. REITs appear to have broke… read more...

A Gift From The Fed? How The Rate Pause Could Help Make Conditions Just Right

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-23 03:09:29:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Quantitative Investment Strategy Analyst Dr. Kara Ng and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed recently-released minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's (the Fed) Jan. 29-30 policy meeting. They also dug into trade war negotiations b… read more...

Broad Based Breadth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-23 02:51:37:000

One aspect of the rally in stocks this year that we can't stress enough is how strong breadth has been. Besides the fact that the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 is outperforming the market cap weighted index by close to three percentage points YTD, the vast majority of S&amp;P 500 Industry Groups … read more...

Mixed Messages: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap 02.22.19

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-23 01:35:38:000

By SchiffGold The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week's precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. Gold pushed up against a significant resistance level this week and then sold off after the minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of February 18-22

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 16:39:01:000

My commentary has had a bearish tone over the last few weeks. But, there's a reason for that - the news has been bad. Consider this tweet from David Rosenberg: Housing is sluggish while new orders for non-transportation goods have declined in four of the last five months. A Chinese slowd… read more...

The Week In Review: Durable Goods Slows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 15:05:01:000

This was a week with few releases - however, there were two major releases and they followed the recent trend to point to a slowing economy. Durable Goods The data continues to show a slowing in manufacturing durable goods new orders. unadjusted new orders growth decelerated 1.3 % (a… read more...

Active > Passive

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 14:09:54:000

Why Active &gt; Passive February 2019 An Investing Legend: We thought, with the recent passing of legendary investor Jack Bogle at age 89, that we would discuss (again) active management versus passive investing. Ironically, Bogle began his career in 1951, at asset manager Wellingto… read more...

The Russell 2000 Is Now Overbought, Prudence Is Required

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 13:30:09:000

The Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares ETF (TNA) has made over a 90% move up from the 2018 lows, which means that the parent index of TNA, the Russell 2000 (IWM), is now up equivalently 30% from its lows. TNA still has around 50% upside from current levels, as former highs once traded i… read more...

The Fed's Green Light May Prove Insufficient For Stocks To Continue Rallying

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 12:45:01:000

The S&amp;P 500 currently stands at around 2,780, marking an 18.25% surge from the December 2018 lows. While certain market participants had been worrying that rising stock prices may encourage the Fed to turn hawkish again, the recent Fed minutes have dispelled those fears. Regardless, the im… read more...

And Now GDP Estimates Are Coming Down

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 11:43:29:000

A cyclical slowdown in global growth (and domestic growth) has been underway since November 2017. By the early part of 2018, it was clear the global economy was starting to decelerate, but it was a bit more cloudy in the US as a tax cut, massive government spending, and one-off events such as… read more...

Markets Ending Week With A Whimper

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 08:15:15:000

Overview: The global capital markets are winding down what appears to be an inconclusive week quietly and on a mixed note. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is poised to snap a four-day advance but held on to a nearly 2% gain for the week. European bourses are mostly higher, and although the weekl… read more...

Sinking Shippers Signal Global Goods Troubles

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 03:27:40:000

It infects every boardroom across the world. Big business requires decent forecasting, yet time and again it seems they are deprived of what they desperately need. Instead, even after this last decade, the world's largest companies continue to be surprised by weakness that is far more prevalen… read more...

The Return To A Gold Exchange Standard

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 02:45:43:000

This article makes the obvious point that a return to a gold standard is the only way nations can contain the interest cost of servicing debt, given the alternative is inflationist policies that can only lead to far higher interest rates and currency destruction. The topic is timely, given th… read more...

Equity Markets In Search Of Direction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 00:39:31:000

The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its worst December performance since the Great Depression. But stocks have bounced back, and the markets have recovered nearly all of their losses. Is there more room to run? Kim Parlee speaks with Michael Craig, senior portfolio Manager at TD Ass… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Sour Economic Data Takes Its Toll On Market Optimism

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 12:01:00:000

Market Intro Spot VIX is up a little less than a vol point, fairly close with where it began the previous session, on a raft of less-than-glowing economic data. Thursday morning is witness to some profit taking ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) based on the impressive run-up. CNBC: 10:16AM EST… read more...

It's Always A Good Time To Buy, Buy, Buy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 11:58:15:000

The stock market has been on an impressive recovery since the end of the most recent, short-lived bear market. But as the S&amp;P 500 inches closer to its all-time high once again (it's only 5% off the late September 2018 levels), concerns over yet another market correction, perhaps caused b… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 23K, Beat Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 09:24:16:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending February 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 23… read more...

The 'There Is No Recession In Sight' Chartbook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 08:56:35:000

Yesterday, Michael Lebowitz wrote an interesting piece discussing the "yield curve" and the message it is sending. To wit: Recently, Wall Street and the Financial Media have brought much attention to the flattening and possible inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Given the fact th… read more...

Aussie Slammed By Dalian Coal Embargo, While Firmer Flash PMI Does Euro Little Good

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 08:02:32:000

Overview: The US dollar is firm against most major and emerging market currencies. There is more optimism on US-Chinese trade as a series of understandings are drafted, and an extension past March 1 of the tariff freeze is reportedly in the works. Mixed economic data and a call from a local … read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report: 21 February, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 07:43:27:000

The US economic trend continues to slow, but the deceleration - so far - has been gradual and non-threatening in terms of raising recession risk to a critical level. In other words, moderate growth prevails, albeit with a downside bias. If the deceleration rolls on, the potential for trouble m… read more...

The 'New' Capital Markets And The Federal Reserve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 07:36:06:000

Over the past several days, I have been trying to deal with a couple of changes in the financial environment that might have significant impacts on the future of stock prices. First, there is the situation that Federal Reserve officials now find themselves in. The current economic recove… read more...

Weekly Edge: SEC Seeks More Public Companies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 05:25:08:000

By Ansh Chaudhary A proposal recently released by securities regulators is garnering attention from investors and companies alike, The Wall Street Journal reports . Hoping to boost the number of public companies, the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC's) new provision would allow… read more...

5 Issues To Watch This Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 04:02:40:000

Originally published on February 19, 2019 Weekly Market Compass: Key data releases and international tensions could impact global markets Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on February 19, 2019, in Market &amp; Economic From key data releases to int… read more...

Russell Defensive Indexes Put To The Test

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 03:44:51:000

By Catherine Yoshimoto, director, product management After an unprecedented stretch of low volatility, the 12-month period ending January 31, 2019, saw considerable US equity market turbulence. While whipsawing markets can be unsettling for investors, they can also provide a testing ground… read more...

Technically Speaking For February 20

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 16:39:07:000

NY Fed President Williams on interest rates (emphasis added) : New York Fed President John Williams on Tuesday said he was comfortable with the level U.S. interest rates are at now and that he sees no need to raise them again unless economic growth or inflation shifts to an unexpectedly… read more...

From 50 To Zero: Why Investors Are Shunning International Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 14:47:06:000

Leading into 2008, emerging market stocks and international stocks dominated financial shows. "Talking heads" agreed that investors should allocate as much as 50% overseas for a well-diversified portfolio. The reasoning? One should be aligned with the world's stock market pie. After all, hal… read more...

Yesterday's Perfect Recession Warning May Be Failing You

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 13:39:28:000

Recently, Wall Street and the Financial Media have brought much attention to the flattening and possible inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Given the fact that an inversion of the 2s/10s Treasury yield curve has predicted every recession over the last 40 years, it is no wonder that th… read more...

Paying Off Your Mortgage? Think Again!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 13:02:49:000

The US Stock Market Has Never Lost Money Over A Twenty-year Period If you look at the US stock market between 1825 and 2018, there have been many up years and many down years. However, the market has had many more up years than down years - 71% up years as opposed to 29% down years! In the l… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Recession Indicator Thrusts Higher, While Realized Vol Flushes To Three-Month Lows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 09:44:35:000

Market Intro CNBC: 8:44AM EST US equities ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) managed a rebound after yesterday's rather mild dip after President Trump intoned that the March trade deadline might be more of a soft benchmark than a 'magical date' . S&amp;P futures in the pre-market demonstrat… read more...

Were January Gains Just A Bear Market Rally?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 07:51:25:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA On last week's "Behind the Markets" podcast, Liqian Ren and I hosted a macro-focused episode, discussing both the latest political events and the global macro environment with Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist for AGF Investments, and Simon White, managing… read more...

Market Update: FOMC And Interest Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 07:10:11:000

By OpenMarkets How will equity markets impact what the Fed does? We may find out with the release of January FOMC minutes this week. Jack Bouroudjian discusses that, and why we should look abroad to explain current low interest rates. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this ar… read more...

U.S.-China Trade And Brexit Dominate Ahead Of FOMC Minutes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 07:07:58:000

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, but the strongest currency today is the Chinese yuan, following reports that US wants China to keep the yuan stable and not offset US tariffs with currency depreciation. The second monthly decline in Japanese exports wei… read more...

Stocks And Bonds Unlikely To Keep Rising Together

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 05:02:00:000

It's not just stocks: bonds and commodities are up this year as well. Russ discusses whether that can continue. Suddenly, 2018 is looking like a bad dream. Financial markets have been magically transported back to the halcyon days of early 2017, when stocks, bonds and just about everything… read more...

Getting Back Up To Speed On Loss Of Speed In U.S. Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 04:33:33:000

For much of 2018, the idea of "overseas turmoil" lived up to its name. At least in economic terms. Market-wise, there was a lot domestically to draw anyone's honest attention. Warnings were everywhere by the end of the year. And that was what has been at issue. Some said Europe and China are o… read more...

Technically Speaking For February 19

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 16:53:50:000

ECB policy-makers are taking note of the weaker EU data (emphasis added): The slowdown of the European economy is significant and the European Central Bank could change its interest-rates guidance if it becomes clear the situation isnt temporary, Governing Coun… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Party On, Wayne!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 11:35:26:000

The joyride to the upside in the stock market continued last week as the S&amp;P 500 surged another 2.5%. If my calculator is correct, this means the venerable blue-chip index is now up 10.7% so far in 2019 and has put in a nifty gain of 18% since the December 24th panic attack. Impressive. … read more...

I Should Have

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 11:27:49:000

. . . A man has rigged up a turkey trap with a trail of corn leading into a big box with a hinged door. The man holds a long piece of twine connected to the door that he can use to pull the door shut once enough turkeys have wandered into the box. However, once he shuts the door, he can'… read more...

Market Seems Unaffected By Weaker Economic Data

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 10:25:02:000

Credit Conditions &amp; Retails Sales We have seen credit standards tightening over the last few years, but demand was mostly unaffected. However, during Q1 2019 we saw data published showing a significant drop in consumer demand. The demand data for credit card loans and other consumer lo… read more...

Investors Need Fresh Incentives

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 09:42:59:000

Overview: Activity in the global capital markets is subdued as investors await fresh developments. New wording for the Irish backstop apparently is being drafted. US-China trade talks resume. No decision has been made on US auto tariffs, but European and Japanese officials seem to be playing… read more...

Technically Speaking: You Carry An Umbrella In Case It Rains

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 09:36:11:000

With the markets closed yesterday, it gives us a chance to review the short, intermediate, and long-term signals the markets are currently sending. Brett Arends recently wrote an excellent piece for MarketWatch with respect to investors feeling like they "missed out," on the recent rally. T… read more...

Global Central Banks And Presidential Cycles Supporting Bulls

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 03:20:19:000

By Joe Duarte The late Marty Zweig often said: "Don't fight the Fed, and don't fight the market's momentum." And this market is offering a perfect opportunity to heed those words of wisdom. I'm not blind. And this market with its volatility and its robotic trading signature surely gives … read more...

2 Sides To The U.S. Dollar Story

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 02:50:08:000

Where is the U.S. dollar headed after its sizable appreciation in 2018? It depends on your vantage point. The dollar has gained against most developed market ((DM)) currencies, but depreciated against emerging market ((EM)) counterparts so far this year. We see this trend as likely to run on i… read more...

S&P 500 Bulls In Charge, But Need New Drivers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 01:51:33:000

By Robert Savage We maybe tilting at windmills as the relentless rally up in risk in the last week for U.S. equities begets ever more analysis as to why markets react to policy and economic data as bulls beat bears. The cause and effect of why shares are bid in the United States and Europe… read more...

Blame The Fed For The Plight Of The Average American

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 17:10:37:000

What is the most important price in the economy? In my estimation, it can only be the price of money itself . The price of borrowed money affects everyone in some way or another. At the current point in history, a handful of actors (the central banks) wield control over this price, either d… read more...

'I See Trees Of Green': 10 Most Amazing Facts About The Current Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 13:10:44:000

What a Wonderful World "I see trees of green, red roses too; I see them bloom for me and you; And I think to myself what a wonderful world" The past 50 days have been anything but shades of grey. Since Christmas, the market has been nothing but "trees of green" wherever you look. … read more...

This Is Too Easy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 10:36:13:000

Investing in the late 1990s was a lot of fun. It wasn't about making or losing money, but about how much or how little you were going to make. The greatest frustration was jumping into a stock that moved up too slowly, as you watched other ones climb at a more rapid rate. I rolled an ever-incr… read more...

Rozendal Partners Year-End Letter 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 09:20:00:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

The Fed Conundrum - Data Or Markets?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 08:21:26:000

Following the Fed's last meeting, we published for our RIA PRO subscribers a simple question: "What does the Fed know?" Of course, this meeting followed the stock market plunge at the end of 2018 where their tone that turned from "hawkish" to "dovish" in the span of just a few weeks. See… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Recession Watch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 07:36:29:000

There is a growing consensus that a recession is right around the corner, perhaps as soon as late 2019, but surely by 2020. Why? I think the primary reason is that the current expansion will be the longest on record come June of this year, surpassing the 10-year period of prosperity during the… read more...

Dollar Drifts Lower

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 07:02:11:000

Overview: In quiet turnover, the US dollar slipped lower against most of the major currencies to start the new week. The news stream is light and the US markets are closed today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up five of the past six weeks and extended its gains today. Nearly all the equity… read more...

Is A 2019 Stock Market Crash Coming? Is The Bear Market Here?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 06:46:14:000

In this video, we'll review whether a stock market crash is coming and whether the bear market is here. The latest BofAML Fund Manager Survey is out and provides an interesting look into just how pessimistic asset managers remain. The most important takeaways, in my opinion, are the str… read more...

Investment Strategy Outlook February 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 04:50:00:000

Read more … read more...

Market Commentary - February 14, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 04:20:00:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Dollar Bulls May Turn Cautious

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 13:33:26:000

While we expect that the broad economic and monetary divergence will allow the dollar's uptrend to resume more immediately, we have been expecting the recent ranges to remain intact. The ranges may have frayed, but the pre-weekend price action may reinforce them. With a slow start to the week … read more...

REITs Extend Rally To 6th Straight Week, Housing Stocks Jump

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 12:18:27:000

Real Estate Weekly Review What a difference a year makes! Coming off their worst year since the financial crisis, the real estate sector has roared back to life in 2019 with broad-based gains across nearly every residential and commercial real estate category. The REIT ETFs ( VNQ and IYR… read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Equity Market Chart Book February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 11:10:00:000

Read more … read more...

The Bear Market Rally For Equity ETFs Extended Again Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 10:41:28:000

Today, I show the daily charts with their key technical levels. The Federal Reserve is using its balance sheet to adjust monetary policy: Last week there were more comments that the FOMC will keep the federal funds rate at 2.25% to 2.50%. There was even chatter that the Fed would lower … read more...

Quantitative Easing... Forever

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 09:35:41:000

What is becoming obvious now is the fact that the global central banks can no longer hide the fact that without their QE and balance sheet expansion, asset prices would fall and economies would reverse. The last month or so has seen a huge reversal in the market expectations for future rate hi… read more...

Is It A (Bull) Trap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 08:57:14:000

On Tuesday, I discussed the issue of the markets being stuck between various short- and longer-term moving averages. To wit: "Despite those more macro-concerns, the market has had a phenomenal run from the 'Christmas Eve' lows and has moved above both the Oct-Nov lows and the 50-dma… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: It's Blue Skies For The Stock Market As Far As The Eye Can See

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 08:00:00:000

We have all heard it. Many times through history, the hubris of analysts, economists, and market participants has been on display when markets rally extremely strongly. In fact, such hubris often accompanies major market tops. And, history has taught us that most of them are quite severely nea… read more...

Market Update: All About China

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 07:31:18:000

By OpenMarkets Trade tension between the United States and China "is dominating pretty much every aspect of trading," says Jack Bouroudjian. He discusses the outlook for a resolution to tensions, and what that could mean for markets in the weeks ahead. Editor's Note : The summary … read more...

Tan Liu: Why Many Of Today's Most-Owned Stocks Are Ponzi Schemes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 07:22:51:000

Stocks provide a return to today's investors via two mechanisms: dividends and capital gains. Dividends provide and income stream which can be quantitatively valued. Capital gains result from speculation - an expectation that future dividends will be higher than the market currently expects…. read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Stocks Notch Eighth Straight Week Of Gains

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 07:04:55:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday Close US stock markets ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are apparently less nervous about problematic economic data (e.g. retail sales) than are Asian markets ( AAXJ ), at least if you believe the headlines. Spot Vix fell a full eight percent on Friday, as hopes… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Rally Continues With Resistance Ahead, Get Ready For A Tug Of War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-16 12:48:39:000

"Headlines, in a way, are what mislead you, because bad news is a headline, and gradual improvement is not." - Bill Gates Investors are asking where do the equity markets go from here? The following will give one an idea of how difficult it is to even attempt to come up with an answer…. read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Widespread Declines Turn Short-Term Forecast And Nowcast Negative

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-16 06:28:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark … read more...

The Week In Review: Retail Sales Confirm A Slowing Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-16 06:14:00:000

Retail sales for December 2018 showed consumers backed away from the spending trough. Is this a precursor for things to come? The retail sales release for December was delayed due to the government shutdown. To understand graphically how bad the headline data was for retail sales, the grap… read more...

U.S. Vs. Eurozone Comparisons

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-16 05:18:33:000

Here are four charts that look at key aspects of the US and Eurozone economies: swap spreads, industrial production, equity prices, and exchange rates. By now everyone knows that the Eurozone has its problems, especially with the UK's bumbling attempt to exit the Eurozone trade agreement, Fran… read more...

A December To Not Remember: What Drove The Recent Plunge In U.S. Retail Sales?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-16 01:57:58:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist Erik Ristuben, and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed slumping U.S. retail sales, stalled economic growth in Germany, and the latest numbers from fourth-quarter earnings season. Disappoi… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of February 11-15

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-16 01:47:43:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to analyze the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the U.S. economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to see if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." Current Conclusion: There is a 2… read more...

Borrowing Into Oblivion: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap 02.15.19

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-16 00:58:22:000

By SchiffGold The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week's precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. America has borrowed itself into oblivion. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about the massive level… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of February 11-15

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 16:55:28:000

We can now add Spain to the list of EU countries grappling with political and economic upheaval. The Prime Minister has called for a snap election in April after suffering a major parliamentary defeat this week. This has been building for some time; since 2016, no party has been able to cl… read more...

Fractals And The Future Of The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 16:05:42:000

During the past couple of weeks, we have been musing about the possibility that the current secular bull market has years of life left in it. This week, we continue with that analysis by looking at the fractal patterns found in the very-long-term and short-term price history of the S&amp;P 5… read more...

Stock Market Recovery Is A Dead Cat Bounce

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 14:14:12:000

A few months have passed since the stock market correction in December 2018. Today, the markets have recovered, and it seems nobody is worried anymore (see S&amp;P chart below from Yahoo Finance). However, the numbers are not looking good, so caution is advised if you decide to jump into the s… read more...

Treat The Industrial Production And Retail Sales Face Plants With Caution

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 11:11:15:000

Introduction For the second day in a row, a major piece of economic data face-planted. Industrial production for the month of January declined -0.6%. Worse, almost all of the decline was in manufacturing. Productions one-month big decline sends a mixed signal This kind of decline… read more...

How To Beat The Market In The Long Run With Trend Following Strategies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 10:28:20:000

The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF ( SPY ) - the ETF that tracks the widely popular S&amp;P 500 index - closed above its 200-day moving average on Tuesday. This is a widely followed trend indicator, and for good reasons. The data shows that making investment decisions based on such trend indicator can… read more...

Equities Stall While Greenback Remains Firm

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 08:59:57:000

Overview: The S&amp;P 500 snapped a four-day advance yesterday, and equities in the Asia Pacific followed suit. All the markets in the region were lower but in Australia. MSCI's regional benchmark stalled after reached a four-month high in the middle of the week. European markets were mostly… read more...

Central Bank Balance Sheet Reductions - Will Anyone Follow The Fed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 06:06:10:000

The Federal Reserve's response to the Great Financial Recession of 2008/2009 was swift by comparison with that of the ECB; the BoJ was reticent, too, due to its already extended balance sheet. Now that the other developed economy central banks have fallen into line, the question which dominate… read more...

Mixed Signals Put The Market In A Holding Pattern

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 04:16:04:000

The S&amp;P 500 has rallied almost 17% in the past seven weeks, but it is still down about 6% from its all-time high of almost 5 months ago. Corporate profits continue to rise - trailing 12-month earnings are up almost 22% in the past year - yet P/E ratios (how much the market is willing to pa… read more...

Building A Portfolio For The Future

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 04:00:40:000

Equity markets unraveled in the last quarter of 2018, sending investors into panic mode. But almost just as quickly, markets have recovered most of those losses. So what gives? Kim Parlee speaks with Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist, TD Wealth , who says we need a new narrative to… read more...

Fed Tightening Is Over: Markets Now Expect Cuts In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 03:50:20:000

People who assumed the Fed, along with the rest of the government, would cave the minute the financial markets got a little choppy turned out to be right. A couple of bad months and the "normalization" of both interest rates and the Fed's balance sheet have stopped cold. Now the markets expect… read more...

Technically Speaking For February 14

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 17:03:42:000

The Census released the latest retail sales report , which showed a 1.2% M/M decline. Here are the two relevant data series from the report: The top left chart shows total retail sales; the right chart shows the Y/Y percentage change. The bottom left is total sales ex-autos while the righ… read more...

Charts Implying Economic Weakness - February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 11:27:50:000

Please note: This is the latest in a series of articles, the last being " Charts Implying Economic Weakness - January 2019." U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site, there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially … read more...

Recession Risks Are Likely Higher Than You Think

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 11:17:33:000

It is often said that one should never discuss religion or politics as you are going to wind up offending someone. In the financial world it is mentioning the "R" word. The reason, of course, is that it is the onset of a recession that typically ends the "bull market" party. As the legendary… read more...

Blame (Or Thank) The Fed For Meteoric Wealth Inequality

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 10:07:12:000

The Federal Reserve catches flak from individuals in the investment community with some frequency, and not without merit. It's a leitmotif that the reigning monetary policy regime along with trillions of dollars of Quantitative Easing have exacerbated income and wealth inequality. It's worth b… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - February 14, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 09:44:53:000

The BCI at 249.8 is below last week's 249.9, and remains below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 93.6. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.6 is above last weeks 9.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to dro… read more...

Debt Crisis Demands New Thinking, Policies And Behavior

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 09:16:33:000

The true source of widespread financial instability today is rarely acknowledged by mainstream commentators and their sponsors. Former Senator Heitkamp's comments on CNBC this week were an exception, see: A tax alone won't fix the wealth-income gap. The fact is that we are in the midst of … read more...

Market Update: Inflation And Trade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 06:49:58:000

By OpenMarkets The inflationary fears that were a headwind a few months ago are no longer there. A trade detente is working its way into tensions between the U.S. and China. Jack Bouroudjian discusses how both events are affecting equity markets this week. Editors Note: … read more...

Does The LEI Forecast A Recession?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 04:54:42:000

Liz Ann Sonders: Today, I want to talk about leading economic indicators, specifically, but more broadly. So, specifically, the index that I pay most close attention to that tracks a subset of individual economic indicators, all of which tend to lead broader trends in the economy is put o… read more...

Weekly Edge: All Eyes On The U.S. And China

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 04:22:48:000

By Ansh Chaudhary Optimism about the world's two largest economies reaching a trade agreement is palpable in markets around the globe. The pan-European Stoxx-600 rose about 0.3% Wednesday morning with many sectors and major indexes in positive territory, according to CNBC . Positive senti… read more...

A Tale Of Teens In 2 States

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 03:25:33:000

Together, Texas and California are home to over one out of five teens between the ages of 16 and 19 in the United States. Of the two states, California's teen population is larger than that of Texas, although its population has been slowly declining in recent years, while Texas' teen populatio… read more...

Technically Speaking For February 13

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 16:48:26:000

EU industrial production decreased .9% in the latest report . More concerning is the trend:The data printed within the same range between Q4 2017 and Q4 2018. It has now moved convincingly lower, declining in four of the last six months. This report contained a 1.5% M/M decline in both ca… read more...

An Economic Indicator You Haven't Seen Before

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 16:26:47:000

For two years (2016 and 2017), I wrote a weekly report focused on analyzing the previous week's economic data releases, with the sole objective of determining whether the rate of economic growth was strengthening or weakening. As I stated repeatedly, it wasn't about forecasting the next recess… read more...

Are You A Patient Investor Or Market Timer? You Just Took A Test!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 10:36:15:000

Published on Feb 6, 2019 Did you pass the test? Did you know you were taking a test? The test occurred in December when stocks sharply declined. As an example, S&amp;P 500 Index funds were down 9% for the month. The annual high for S&amp;P 500 Index funds' share prices was September 20. … read more...

QT Is Not The Opposite Of QE

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 09:20:54:000

The Federal Reserve has long been clear on the sequence of events as it innovated the playbook during the Great Financial Crisis. There would be a considerable period between when the Fed would finish its credit easing operations that involved purchasing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securi… read more...

Cryoseism

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 06:50:04:000

Praise out of season, or tactlessly bestowed, can freeze the heart as much as blame." - Pearl S. Buck Watching with interest the weakening tone in February in credit markets following the stellar month of January, in conjunction with confirmation of a global slowdown, and with no resolutio… read more...

A Measured But Constructive Market View

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 04:49:41:000

By Antonio (Tony) Docal, CFA, Director of Portfolio Management, Templeton Global Equity Group and Heather Arnold, CFA, Director of Research, Portfolio Manager, Templeton Global Equity Group The market environment for value investors over the past few years has been less than id… read more...

Late Car Payments Hit Record High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 04:16:21:000

Today, the Washington Post featured a piece that highlights what we at Tematica have been saying for months and is highlighted in our Middle-Class Squeeze investment theme. All is not well in many American households at a time when unemployment is at a 50-year low, there are more job openings … read more...

U.S. Labor Demand Soars, Or Sours

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 04:06:50:000

JOLTS is at it again. The most-watched piece, Job Openings, has been surging. Ostensibly an attempt to measure the demand for labor in the private economy, the BLS figures that US businesses are in the market for whole lot of new workers. Given rising worries throughout the uncertainty of 2018… read more...

As The Fed Reflates The Stock Bubble, The Economy Crumbles

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 04:05:30:000

I get a kick out of these billionaires and centimillionaires, like Kyle Bass yesterday, who appeared on financial television to look the viewer in the eye and tell them that economy is booming. Kyle Bass doesn't expect a mild recession until mid-2020. Hmmm… explain that rationale to the 78%+... read more...

Job Openings And Labor Turnover: Clues To The Business Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 03:56:05:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through December, is now available. From the press release: The number of job openings reached a series high of 7.3 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta… read more...

Technically Speaking For February 12

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 16:53:35:000

Is an earnings recession on the horizon? From the NY Times (emphasis added): But warning signs keep flashing about the shaky fundamentals of the economy and therefore the stock market. The latest alarm bell is that Wall Street analysts are slicing their forecasts for how much big comp… read more...

Market Update: Powell's Words

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 16:09:28:000

By OpenMarkets Global interest rates remain low. Jack Bouroudjian looks at the two schools of thought on what that means for markets. Ultimately, he says, Jay Powell's words should give market participants some direction. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were ch… read more...

Stock Prices Are Overvalued; When Will The Reversion Start And How Low Will It Go?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 11:46:28:000

As we are near the end of a very long period of ((slow)) economic and ((fast)) stock market growth, we see more and more SA articles predicting a doom-and-gloom forward period for both the economy (recession) and the market (bust or bear). Many of these forecasts are founded on relatively hi… read more...

We're Overdue For A Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 09:15:00:000

We're way overdue for a sell-everything recession, one that the Fed will only make worse by pursuing its usual policies of lowering interest rates and goosing easy money. As I noted last week, central banks, like generals, always fight the last war - until the war is lost. The global eco… read more...

Technically Speaking: Stuck In The Middle With You

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 09:06:59:000

In this past weekend's missive, we discussed the market stalling at the 200-dma. To wit: "We said then the most likely target for the rally was the 200-dma. It was essentially the level at which the 'irresistible force would meet the immovable object.'" "What will be critically im… read more...

Junk Bonds 'Read Like A Bond, But Trade Like A Stock'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 08:47:37:000

It takes 35 years in the trenches of the junk bond market for an investment professional to come up with a one-liner that summarizes the volatility of low-grade debt: It reads like a bond, but trades like a stock. As junk bond spreads were blowing out in January 2016, the … read more...

The S&P 500 Is Now Up Over 16% In Just 6 Weeks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 08:27:58:000

The market weakness in the last few days is just normal consolidation after a massive rally since the Christmas Eve lows. In the six weeks from December 25 to February 5, the S&amp;P 500 rose over 16%, so a couple of down days are nothing to worry about. However, there is no doubt that Presi… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: The Stock Market Is In The 7th Inning Stretch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 08:00:00:000

This market has been training market participants that it truly has no top. And, it will continue to do so for a few more years. But, in doing so, it is going to cause many of you to make a terrible mistake, and it may be just before some of you are ready to retire. You see, many of the arti… read more...

Dollar Buying Pressure Subsides

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 07:05:50:000

Overview: The Dollar Index's eight-day advance is in jeopardy. Although the greenback recorded new highs against some major currencies, the momentum appears to be stalling. The news stream is constructive as a compromise seems to have been reached to avoid another US government shutdown, and… read more...

Traders Are Focusing On FANG Through Nasdaq Futures

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 05:22:47:000

By Bruce Blythe At a Glance E-mini Nasdaq futures trading soared to new highs amid recent tech-stock volatility. Consumers have sunk their teeth into the four companies behind the so-called FANG stocks. The same could be said about traders and a futures contract, CME Group&#x20… read more...

Technically Speaking For February 11

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 16:42:23:000

UK GDP contracted in December and was noticeably weaker in the 4Q18 (emphasis added): UK gross domestic product (( GDP) ) is estimated to have slowed to 0.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2018, slightly below the latest forecasts produced by the Bank of England (PDF, 4.27MB) and the Nat… read more...

Weak Profiles, And The S&P 500 Moves Above The 200-Day

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 16:34:45:000

Not All Moves Above The 200-Day Are Created Equal As the historical examples below clearly demonstrate, after a plunge in the stock market and within the context of a still weak long-term trend profile, seeing the S&amp;P ( SPY ) close above its 200-day moving average is far from an &#x201… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Bull Vs. Bear - The Line In The Sand?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 12:51:09:000

On Tuesday, February 5 and again on Wednesday, February 6, the S&amp;P 500 bumped into its 200-day moving average. While I'm not exactly sure why this particular indicator captures the attention of so many (there are a myriad of more effective trend-following tools readily available), the cros… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Markets Stay Range-Bound, While VIX Pops

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 12:07:17:000

Market Intro CNBC: 11:22AM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are mostly higher to open the new week of trade, while spot VIX is up 3.50%, still near the low of its four-month range. The pre-market session looked decent for S&amp;P futures, but the enthusiasm fizzled and we're … read more...

Who Do You Trust?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 10:48:27:000

Who Do You Trust? was an American television game show, originally hosted by comedian Johnny Carson, which aired from 1957 to 1963. The series was initially emceed by Carson and announced by Bill Nimmo. A year into the run, Nimmo was replaced by Ed McMahon. Carson and McMahon departed in 196… read more...

The Federal Budget Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 09:44:46:000

The Congressional Budget Office ((CBO)) released an updated ten-year budget outlook in late January. It incorporates current spending and tax legislation and it assumes current law will remain in effect over the forecast period. As usual, the budget outlook does not forecast any recession ev… read more...

Dollar Starts New Week On Firm Note

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 07:51:47:000

Overview: Lifted by the re-opening of Chinese markets after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, global equities are trading firmer. Outside of Japanese markets that were closed, the large markets in Asia - China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong advanced. European bourses are following s… read more...

A Failed Breakout For The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 05:50:56:000

For a moment during the first week of February 2019, the S&amp;P 500 (Index: SPX) looked like it might fully break out of the range described by our redzone forecast, but alas, it only poked just above the upper end of the range for a few days before dropping back into it. Had the S&amp;P 50… read more...

The V In Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 03:04:36:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities The equity rally is likely just the start of a volatile adjustment to a new fundamental reality. "Investors who sit out now could miss a chunk of this year's returns." Those were the last words that I wrote in one… read more...

Bezos And Berkshire

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 02:46:24:000

This week we continued to see the global economy struggle with Italy headed into recession. Could this be what the Federal Reserve saw late in 2018? A global recession would have a negative effect here in the US. If a global recession is on the horizon then the tightening cycle from the Federa… read more...

More Market Crazy-Talk

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 15:57:17:000

Government debt and deficits do not matter. That statement is even crazier than last week's crazy-talk , but that idea is what will allow this secular bull market to continue running for longer than most can imagine. Concerns over government deficits and debt are nothing new, and neither … read more...

Next Stop: Recession!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 12:32:04:000

We've enjoyed years of "recovery" since the Great Financial Crisis by literally papering over our problems with newly-printed money, instead of addressing their root causes. But we've now arrived at the awkward part of the story; when all of our prior mistakes finally catch up with us, and t… read more...

Sector ETF Week In Review For February 4-8

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 12:04:06:000

Let's start where we always do: performance tables, beginning with the weekly results: There isn't a solid bullish/bearish alignment in this week's table. Utilities (defensive) were the leader, but they were followed by tech and industrials (bullish). The bottom three sectors are more bullis… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of February 4-8

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 11:33:02:000

Let's review some of the major economic numbers and central bank activity this week: The Census reported that durables goods orders declined .6%. The ex-transportation numbers have been weak for the last three months (.3%, .2%, -1.2%). The report also contained a sharp 2.5% decline in… read more...

Did An Irresistible Force Meet An Immovable Object?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 10:09:52:000

Since the day after Christmas, the markets have been in a surge very similar to what we saw in January of 2018. Here is January 2018: And 2019: Of course, in February 2018, the rally ended. While I am not suggesting that the markets are about to suffer a 10% correction, what I am sugge… read more...

Little Resolution In The Week Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 10:05:29:000

According to legend, the person who unraveled the Gordian Knot would rule the world. No one succeeded until Alexander the Great took his mighty sword and sliced the knot in half. A young boy saw him afterward, crying on the steps of the Temple of Apollo. "Why are you crying?" the boy asked, "y… read more...

The Silencing Of The Bears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 09:54:22:000

Since 2015, I have been less than enthusiastic about risk assets. And while I do not short the market, nor have I ever been completely divested from equities, investors have been rewarded for going long. Nevertheless, a review of the previous four years must note the 22 month… read more...

January 2019 Data Update 8: Dividends And Buybacks - Fact And Fiction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 08:24:05:000

In my series of data posts, I had always planned to get to dividends and buybacks, the two mechanisms that companies have for returning cash to stockholders, at this point, but an op-ed on buybacks by Senators Schumer and Sanders this week, in the New York Times, will undoubtedly make this p… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Delusional

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 06:07:00:000

February 8 - Bloomberg (Brian Chappatta): "Bond traders are dusting off their tried and true post-crisis playbook after the Federal Reserve's pivot last month. What they don't realize is that the game has most likely changed. In an unabashed reach for yield, investors suddenly can't get enough… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - February 8, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 05:53:05:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. Things are about to get real We're getting close to finding some answers to the important questions that investors have been struggling with for more than a year. Will the economy tip over into a recession? Will the stock ma… read more...

How Durable Is The Fed's Dovish Turn?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 15:46:09:000

The Federal Reserve's recently communicated change in its outlook for monetary policy has led to concerns that the Fed is overreacting to market volatility, or worse, succumbing to political pressures. However, we believe there is a more compelling reason for the dovish shift. Policymakers a… read more...

Fun With Legs And Shoulders

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 12:56:07:000

The global stock market drop in the third quarter of 2018 was sharp and quick. In North America, the S&amp;P 500 and TSX 60 fell 18 and 15 percent, respectively, in just 60 trading days between October 1 and December 24th. Both then rebounded some 14% in the 25 and 28 trading days that followe… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Patience, Patience; Good Things Come To Those That Wait

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 08:00:02:000

"I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." - Thomas Jefferson After close to 10 years of witnessing the U.S. economy and stock market recover, we are yet at another point in time where investors are starting to wonder if we've seen all this expa… read more...

The Week In Review: Consumer Credit Growth Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 06:32:47:000

The December Consumer Credit data shows consumer credit growth remains soft, and if one removes student loans - and adjusts for inflation - then the year-over-year growth is lower than GDP growth. Also this week there are two missed data sets because of the government shutdown. Unadjusted Co… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of February 4-8

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 05:08:53:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to determine if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." Long-Leading Indicators … read more...

Cushioning The Blow: Key Factors That Could Smooth The Road Ahead For The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 02:47:12:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed recent headlines over the global economic slowdown, the shift to a more dovish stance among many central banks and market impacts of the ongoing trade nego… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Neutral In All Time Frames

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 01:07:10:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark y… read more...

The Charge Of The Light Brigade: Central Bankers Have Misunderstood Their Orders

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 23:48:36:000

"Into the valley of Death rode the six hundredForward, the Light Brigade! Was there a man dismayed? Not though the soldier knew, someone had blunderedTheirs not to reason why, theirs but to do and die." - ( Alfred, Lord Tennyson, 1854 ) The Charge of the Light … read more...

What Keeps Me Up At Night

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 12:04:38:000

Monetary Policy Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Wednesday evening at a town hall meeting in Washington D.C., during which he discussed what he believes to be our two greatest challenges for the next decadethe widening wealth gap and sluggish productivity. As John McEnroe used… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Sell In February And (What Rhymes With February)?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 09:17:37:000

Market Intro CNBC: 8:24AM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are on the back foot in the Friday pre-market, after a modest setback on Wednesday and then a more dramatic fall of about 1% in Thursday trade. US futures may simply be following European ( VGK ) and Asian ( AAXJ , EWJ… read more...

Chris Puplava's 2019 Outlook - Buckle Up!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 04:36:45:000

At the onset of 2018, market soothsayers gave their outlooks for the year. The consistent theme from every economic commentator and investment strategist was jubilation for the most synchronized global growth period since the 2008 financial crisis. The genesis of this glorious upturn began aft… read more...

Investor Sentiment Has Improved But Not To An Extreme Level

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 04:35:29:000

Several recent releases of various investor sentiment reports show an improvement in overall investor sentiment. In late December, I noted a number of the sentiment measures were indicating extreme fear on the part of investors. Since my December post, both sentiment and the equity market ha… read more...

Market Uncertainties: Risks And Opportunities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 03:55:29:000

From U.S.-Sino trade clashes to the absence of a UK Brexit agreement with the EU, the geopolitical environment remains unsettled. But equity markets seem to have assumed these trade matters will soon be resolved and that global expansion will continue. But will they? Kim Parlee speaks w… read more...

If This Isn't Stock Manipulation, I Don't Know What Is

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 03:49:59:000

There is a growing chorus surrounding the topic of stock buybacks and whether they should be banned. Most recently, Chuck Schumer and Bernie Sanders wrote a piece for the New York Times arguing that buybacks are nothing more than corporate self-indulgence that leads to long-term harm to both… read more...

The U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed In November

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 02:43:57:000

By Robert Hughes The U.S. trade deficit decreased slightly in November, falling to $49.3 billion. The narrower deficit reflects a smaller deficit for trade in goods ($71.6 billion deficit vs. $78.3 billion in October) and a smaller surplus in services ($22.3 billion versus $22.6 billion in… read more...

Bears In Hibernation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 02:33:07:000

AAII released its weekly survey of individual investors on Thursday with a sizeable uptick in bullish sentiment. Last week, bulls and bears were dead even at 31.8%, but this week the bullish camp rose to 39.87%. A portion of this boost in optimism likely came from the more dovish and clear t… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 19K, Still Worse Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 02:16:52:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending February 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 253,000. The 4-week moving average was 224… read more...

Why U.S. Debt Must Continue To Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 02:16:29:000

Debt is rising more quickly in the United States than most people would prefer. This is happening in part because the U.S. current account deficit and the country's high level of income inequality distort the structure and amount of American savings. Many Americans are worried about the se… read more...

No Recession Signaled By IM's Business Cycle Index: Update - February 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 19:02:20:000

The BCI at 249.9 is above above last week's upward revised *) 248.7, and remains below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 94.5. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.4 is above last weeks 9.0. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recessio… read more...

Economic Data Divergence: The U.S. Versus The Eurozone

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 17:29:57:000

Following strong US equity sell-off in December, we have witnessed sharp risk appetite reversal at the beginning of 2019. The S&amp;P 500 recorded five gains in the past six trading sessions and volatility in the US equity market has retreated to its lowest level since early October (see chart… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Equity Index Needs Confirmation From Economic Messaging

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 12:47:16:000

Market Intro SectorSPDR: 11:01AM EST Stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are in drop mode shortly after an announcement from Larry Kudlow that the trade deal between the US and China has a long way to go; Tuesday's State of the Union Address said as much explicitly. Spot VIX is taking … read more...

Jobless Claims Come Back But Are Still Elevated

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 11:00:42:000

After spiking all the way up to 253K last week , breaking a 68-week long streak of readings below 250K and reaching its highest level since September 2017, Initial Jobless Claims fell a bit this week but still remain fairly elevated. Claims came in at 234K versus forecasts of 221K. Just to il… read more...

ClearBridge Investments: The Long View Market Commentary Q4 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 10:28:00:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Business Cycle Chart Book February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 09:25:00:000

Read more … read more...

China Trade Deal Baked Into Stock Prices, 'No-Deal' Brexit The Black Swan Event

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 07:22:47:000

US stocks have rallied since Christmas on the back of an expected trade deal with China. If there is any disappointment, then shares would react negatively, but assuming President Donald Trump can pull off his deal of the century, then dont expect a big rally. It&#x2019… read more...

Dollar's Gains Extended

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 07:00:25:000

Overview: The five-day advance of the S&amp;P 500 stalled yesterday and global equities are mixed today. Most Asian centers remain closed, Japan and some small markets were lower, while Taiwan, Australia, and India moved higher. The seven-day rally in Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is under th… read more...

Higher U.S. Stock Prices Not Driven By Higher Domestic Equity Inflows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 06:31:44:000

The end of 2018 saw the S&amp;P 500 Index return decline over 13%, as seen in the first chart below. The second chart shows the snapback in the market that has rewarded investors at the start of 2019, with the price-only return of the S&amp;P 500 Index up nearly 9%. In spite of the strong re… read more...

Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 05:55:09:000

By Jerry Wagner A quantitative money management firm is all about indicators - indicators for the stock, bond, and gold markets, usually. These indicators are tactical in nature - that is, they tell you when to be invested in the asset and when not to be. For some reason, February has al… read more...

The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 18:01:36:000

Note: The previous monthly update can be seen in the Jan. 9 article titled, " The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - January 2019 . " There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I dont agree with the methodologies em… read more...

February Yield Curve Update: The One-Year Spike

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 17:39:09:000

The Fed Has Lost Control of the Curve Actually, I'm just being cheeky. The Fed is never in control of the yield curve, especially the long end. It is a great myth that the Fed "sets interest rates." The Fed sets the Fed Funds rate, and sometimes the market for Treasuries reacts to it, and … read more...

Preliminary Long Leading Forecast For 2019: Recession Watch Beginning Q4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 10:02:27:000

Introduction: What Are The Long Leading Indicators? I have several systems for forecasting the economy. One is the high-frequency "weekly indicators," which as the name implies is updated weekly, and thus very timely. A second relies on monthly and quarterly data which has been extensively v… read more...

Groundhog Day For Markets?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 09:55:53:000

If Punxsutawney Phil was a Macro Hedge Fund Manager, we believe he would be shorting risk-off and going long risk on - Groundhog day is almost here and the Shadow of December 2018 is not frightening this dice rolling rodent. The jobs market surged in December, wages are now improving at a he… read more...

Clash Of The Titans

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 09:18:02:000

By Kevin Flanagan Are we beginning to see the Clash of the Titans? The U.S. economy versus the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the bond market - who would you put your money on? Right now, I'd go with the U.S. economy, because I don't think the expected slowdown is going to be as worrisome as th… read more...

Dollar Gains By Default

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 08:07:53:000

Overview: The rally in equities is threatening to pause today, even though the few markets open in Asia edged higher. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600, which has advanced in eight of the past ten sessions and six in a row, is seeing some profit-taking pressures. US shares are also trading heavie… read more...

How The Patient Investor Sees The World More Clearly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 06:18:35:000

One of my favorite things to think about in investing is the theoretical investor who slept through 1987. We all know about "Black Monday", the crash of 1987, when stocks fell 23% in one day. It was terrifying. But the craziest thing about 1987 is that the S&amp;P 500 had a total return of 5.8… read more...

The Winter Of Our Discontent (And Spring Of Hope?)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 05:20:18:000

B y Gary Alexander It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the… read more...

InvestED: Ep. 199 - Recession Prepping?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 04:59:33:000

We have a rainstorm due. It didn't come last year. It could come this year. It could come next year. But, it's coming."- Phil Town This week Phil and Danielle discuss prepping for the next recession. Seth Klarman published a paper to his investors that is a little scary. It basically tak… read more...

The Strongest January Since 1987 Lifts U.S. Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 04:48:27:000

The S&amp;P 500 rose 2.34% last week, nearly 8% in January, and 15% since Christmas. This January was the strongest in 32 years, especially for small-capitalization stocks, which had their strongest start in over 40 years. Despite this strength, the market initially got up on the wrong side o… read more...

Technically Speaking For February 5

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 16:53:02:000

The ISM non-manufacturing index was a bit weaker than expected. The headline number was 56.7 -- which is still in solid expansion territory. New orders dropped 5 points, although they are still healthy at 57.7. It's likely the government shutdown was the main reason for the decline; the an… read more...

Macro Update - January 29, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 12:35:00:000

Read more … read more...

3 Big Equity Event Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 12:09:51:000

By Bluford Putnam Equities are facing three major event risks that could result in large price gaps, which are more difficult to manage than shifts in Read more … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: One-Year Anniversary Of The Volpocalypse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 11:48:08:000

Market Intro CNBC: 10:37AM EST Spot VIX falls to a low 15-handle, even as the President's State of the Union address this evening promises " epic political drama ". Regardless of what political media is asserting, markets appear rather unconcerned and ready to move ahead with a market-… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Herd Behavior

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 09:40:41:000

Originally published on Feb. 4. "Herd behavior, or the tendency of individuals in a group to 'follow the trend,' has frequently been observed in equity markets. Herd behavior in investors leads to a convergence of action." [Yan, Zhao, Sun (2012)]"Theoretical models on herd behavior predi… read more...

Your first trade for Tuesday, February 5

via: CNBC at 2019-02-05 09:13:00:000

No summary available. read more...

Technically Speaking: Too Fast, Too Furious

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 08:07:40:000

On December 25th, I penned "My Christmas Wish" wherein I stated that is was "now or never" for the bulls to make a stand. "If we take a look back at the markets over the last 20-years, we find that our weekly composite technical gauge has only reached this level of an oversold cond… read more...

Greenback Remains Firm

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 07:18:58:000

Overview: The US dollar is a little firmer against most of the major currencies. Despite some disappointing data (retail sales, trade, PMI), the Australian dollar has recovered from initial losses below $0.7200 on the back of the central bank's reluctance to adopt an easing bias. A small upw… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - 5 February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 07:13:07:000

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded to an annualized 4.5% in January after slipping to 4.2% at the end of 2018 . Today's revised estimate for GMI (an unmanaged market value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes except cash) represents th… read more...

January 2019 Data Update 7: Debt, Neither Poison Nor Nectar!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 06:14:19:000

Debt is a hot button issue, viewed as destructive to businesses by some at one end of the spectrum and an easy value creator by some at the other. The truth, as is usually the case, falls in the middle. In this post, I will look not only at how debt loads vary across companies, regions and ind… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: VX Term Structure Makes Its Way Back To Contango

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 11:24:00:000

Market Intro Bureau of Labor Statistics CNBC:10:34AM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are starting off the Monday after the jobs report and the Super Bowl with a shrug. The Dow is down .25%, while the NASDAQ is currently gaining ground to the tune of .50%. Spot VIX is s… read more...

Apologies?!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 10:50:47:000

I know you 'warned' that you'd be too busy this week to pen your daily musings, but that doesn't mean you're not missed! (especially when 2713 on the S&amp;P is making it harder to wait for the pullback-let alone a full retest, as others still opine-to reinvest the partial (I stress 'partial… read more...

Buffett, Shiller, Bogle, And Tobin: Valuations, Forward Returns, And Winning The Long-Game

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 10:02:13:000

What a difference just a couple of months can make. Since the financial crisis, there has been much commentary written about the low forward returns on stocks over the subsequent 10-year period from high valuation levels. The chart below shows the forward 10-year returns from previously valu… read more...

Latest Memo From Howard Marks: Political Reality Meets Economic Reality

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 09:26:21:000

In 2016, I wrote Economic Reality (in May) and Political Reality (in August), two memos covering subjects I thought were important and timely. In the latter, I summed up Economic Reality as follows: [It] describes the ways in which economics defines and constrains reality in bu… read more...

The Economy Is On Thin Ice

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 09:11:51:000

It's the start of a new month again which means it's time for a new macro outlook article. This time, I have to say that it took me much more time to digest the latest numbers from the US, Euro Area and China. What looks like a very convincing slowing global cycle could do some serious damage … read more...

Newtonian Finance: The S&P Wants To Go Up

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 08:15:00:000

Image credit: www.extremetech.com A version of this article was first published on 1/31/2019 What goes up must not always go down, but what goes down must in turn go up, at least in financial markets. At the risk of over-simplifying, a rough fourth quarter in all of the major equity … read more...

Subdued Start To Quiet Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 06:59:47:000

Overview: The Lunar New Year celebration made for a quiet Asian session while a light diary in Europe saw subdued turnover. Equity markets are narrowly mixed. Among the three large markets open in Asia Pacific, Australia and Japanese equities rose while India slipped. European bourses are li… read more...

Turtles All The Way Down

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 06:34:56:000

"So we have to make a distinction. If the Fed launches a fresh policy of extraordinary easing in the next downturn, the appropriate response will depend on whether market internals indicate that investors are inclined toward speculation, or whether they are inclined toward risk aversion. The … read more...

The Fed Blinks In Face Of Market And Political Turmoil

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 05:52:34:000

The Federal Reserve has been front and center during the past couple months, and for good reason. After raising interest rates once again in December, markets reacted with uncharacteristic violence. Indeed, many analysts and commentators believed that the rate-induced selloff was the start of … read more...

Own More Companies Than Exist

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 04:47:19:000

Why stop at owning every single company that exists on Earth when you can own so, so many more? It's easy to do: simply invest in mutual funds and ETFs. According to Statista.com, there were 114,131 mutual funds worldwide in 2017 ( total mutual funds worldwide) and 4,535 ETFs ( total ETFs w… read more...

This Is Just Market Crazy Talk - Or Is It?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 17:09:11:000

Since the start of the correction, the consensus view has been that the economy is on the verge of collapse and that stocks have entered a bear market. Also, since the start of the correction, we have been arguing that the economy is not even close to a recession or to the kind of euphoric c… read more...

Fata Morgana

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 15:04:56:000

One of the more amusing things about Q4 2018 was the extent to which market participants fell victim to a series of narratives that, ultimately, were the product of a confused perspective - a kind of fata morgana . The "imminent US recession" story became the predominant market meme startin… read more...

Sector ETF Week In Review For January 28-February 1

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 13:52:38:000

Let's begin where we always do: performance tables, starting with the weekly numbers: The week's big winner was the energy sector, which rebounded in sympathy with oil's recent rise. Real estate also benefited, thanks to a more dovish Fed. Industrials - which have had a harder recent go of… read more...

The Real Elephant In The Room... Debt

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 13:43:40:000

We decided to wait till the FOMC meeting to release this week's letter so that we could capture the most important event of the week. It's not that we didn't expect a few of the tech giant earnings would be painted with bullishness, but we felt maybe the earnings didn't really matter. Maybe al… read more...

Fed Kills The Bear... For Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 12:56:09:000

The full newsletter will return next week. It's 4:40am on Friday morning, and I am sitting in the airport waiting for my flight to Vancouver, B.C. One thing about being at the airport this earlythere is no linefor anything. Anyway, I am on my way to present at the annual Mo… read more...

Avoiding The Extremes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 12:10:26:000

In what seems like a previous life, I lived just down the road from where I'm staying today. I'm at my sister's place in Putney, in South-West London. Overall, I spent 12 years living in "town", divided in the middle by a three-year posting to Hong Kong. But I got out of the UK just over 10 ye… read more...

Which Investment Themes Matter Most For 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 11:46:40:000

By Ben Lofthouse, John Bennett and John Pattullo Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income John Pattullo, Director of European Equities John Bennett and Head of Global Equity Income Ben Lofthouse discuss lessons learned from 2018 and what they expect from the coming year in our latest podcast. In… read more...

The Week Ahead Is Mostly About Digestion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 09:52:51:000

The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days. The important macro points are known. The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase. Investors had been concerned about what… read more...

The Size Of Corporate Debt One Rung Above Junk Has Never Been Greater, Warns Louis Gave

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 09:43:22:000

By FS Staff Louis Gave at Gavekal Research says the greatest source of potential instability in the years ahead lies with the massive growth of the U.S. corporate debt market, particularly at the BBB-rated (near junk) level. Gave recently told FS Insider that it has far outpaced the econ… read more...

Here's why 'Shark Tank's' Kevin O'Leary is betting on small caps to keep beating the S&P 500

via: CNBC at 2019-02-03 08:44:00:000

No summary available. read more...

January A Ball After Year-End Fall

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 15:17:18:000

Investors were cheerfully dancing last month after the stock market posted its best January in 30 years and the best monthly performance since October 2015 (see chart below). More specifically, the S&amp;P 500 index started the year by catapulting +7.9% higher (the best January since 1987), an… read more...

The Week In Review: Could No More Federal Funds Increases Be In The Cards?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 08:39:02:000

The market-moving event this week was delivered by the Federal Reserve/FOMC meeting statement which most are interpreting as an end to further rate increases. The good news this week was the end of the government shutdown - and three missed data sets were issued. Many elements in the economy… read more...

What January U.S. Gasoline Demand Says About The Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 07:10:19:000

The US petroleum report, called "This Week In Petroleum", comes out every week on Wednesday. It gives us very real time information about the state of US petroleum production and usage. I find this report useful for it provides us year-over-year comparisons in demand that may give us a hint ab… read more...

January May Have Been A Goldilocks Month, But March Madness May Be Coming

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 06:53:56:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Client Investment Strategies, Mark Eibel, and Sophie Antal Gilbert, head of AIS business solutions, discussed the reasons behind January's market recovery and what may be coming in China and Europe in the months ahead. January… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: All 3 Timeframes Close To Neutral

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 06:44:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of January 28-February 1

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 06:36:24:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to analyze the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to determine if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." Before diving into the data, let … read more...

Major Asset Classes: January 2019 Performance Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 06:23:43:000

January delivered a strong rebound in the global markets, lifting all the major asset classes amid a powerful renewal of risk-on sentiment. The strong start to 2019 contrasts with December's rout that inflicted deep losses far and wide. The new year, by contrast, is off to a bullish start th… read more...

Finally Some U.S. Data, And It's Payrolls?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 06:11:08:000

By Jeffrey P. Snider It's been a while since we've had any data on the US economy. With the federal government having been shutdown, especially the Census Bureau, the figures have gone dark. The current short-term government reopening will lead to an eventual rush of estimates, perhaps a f… read more...

The Labor Market Continues To Improve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 02:11:40:000

The January jobs report handily beat expectations, with a gain of 296K private sector jobs vs. expectations of 175K. Considering all the disruptions (weather, government shutdown) and despite a big drop in consumer confidence, the numbers appear solid enough to say that the labor market contin… read more...

U.S. Private Payrolls Surged In January

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 01:48:19:000

The Labor Department reports that US companies continued to hire workers at a strong pace in January. The 296,000 gain in payrolls last month beat the consensus forecast by a wide margin. Even more impressive, the annual rate of growth for the nonfarm workforce in the private sector ticked u… read more...

My Current View Of The S&P 500 Index: February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 13:27:59:000

The year 2019 started off well for equity investors. All of the indices I follow for my retirement assets posted positive returns in January. Unfortunately, I was in cash and corporate bonds for the month. While they too posted positive gains in January, I underperformed the S&amp;P 500 index…. read more...

Leveraged ETF Decays - Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 11:58:35:000

I measure once a month the decay of major leveraged ETFs. It may be useful for anyone using leveraged ETFs for investing, trading, or hedging. Where does the decay come from? Most of the time, a leveraged ETF does worse than the underlying asset leveraged by the same factor. This relativ… read more...

Short Note On Jobs Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 09:40:41:000

The January employment report was mixed. It is unlikely to have a material impact on expectations for Fed policy. However, it does suggest the downside risks may not materialize. The US economy grew 304k jobs, well above expectation. It is marred by a 70k net downward revision of the pas… read more...

Mathematics And Markets - Outlook S&P 500 Index Per Jan. 31st, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 09:33:40:000

(*) the Risk /Reward threshold applied by Laomedeia equals 0.5 (maximum). Unfavorable Risk/Reward translates into a ratio larger than 0.5 References Applying Mathematics to Analyse Financial Markets - Part 1, Innovation Applying Dynamic Chaos Theory to Analyse Financial Markets - P… read more...

Monthly S&P 500 Outlook For February 2019: After A Big January Gain, What Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 09:11:27:000

But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one." - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&amp;P 500. Traditional stock market models su… read more...

Relative Trends Say Stocks May Need To Do Some Healthy Backfilling

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 07:18:03:000

How Much Improvement? While the recent breadth thrust leans bullish for stocks, the CCM ETF Stack Rank Model shows the strongest trends on multiple time frames (1-month to 1-year) are still dominated by defensive ETFs ( SPLV ) and ETFs that benefit from lower/stable interest rates and a … read more...

2 Charts That Show Why We Are Not Ready For The Next Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 06:44:22:000

Writing recently for Project Syndicate, Brad DeLong offers some sobering thoughts on our readiness for the next recession: If a recession comes anytime soon, the US government will not have the tools to fight it. The White House and Congress will once again prove inept at deploying fiscal… read more...

Is Everyone Looking The Wrong Way?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 06:27:55:000

Over the past few months, the investing markets have considered Federal Reserve Chairman Powell enemy number one. Earlier this week, the markets once again showed that America's central bank drives sentiment more than any other factor, forget trade wars, forget earnings, forget political drama… read more...

The Fed Marches On

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 05:38:12:000

So it has come to pass. In his recent press conference , Chairman Jerome Powell has at last made official the Fed's plan to stick to its post-crisis "floor" system of monetary control, which uses changes in the interest rate paid on banks' excess reserve balances, rather than routine open-mar… read more...

Waves Of Worry Recede

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-01 05:35:07:000

Since last October I've been arguing that the equity selloff had more to do with a "panic attack" than to any serious deterioration in the economy's fundamentals. Waves of worry (e.g., a China economic slowdown, tariff wars, Trump's unpredictability, a weakening Eurozone economy, stumbling e… read more...

Let's Talk About A U.S. Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 12:59:04:000

The stock market indexes predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. And they have been beauties - Paul Samuelson (1966) 1. Introduction This article seeks to address some of the recent anxiety over a US economic recession. We will look at the economic data and try to parse which d… read more...

Following Up On Our Apple Trade + 2 Hedges To Lock In The Gains

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 11:43:53:000

Wheee, what a ride! We came all the way back to Dow 25,000 yesterday as Apple and Boeing ( BA ) accounted for 2/3 of the gains on the day, both with strong earnings reports that beat expectations. Both are also major S&amp;P components and Apple ( AAPL ) is over 15% of the Nasdaq's weighting… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Fed Gives Risk Markets 'All Clear'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 11:10:56:000

Market Intro CNBC: 10:33AM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ), which fluctuated some in the pre-market, are tracking mostly higher in Thursday morning action. Spot volatility is now printing below a 17-handle, which since late September '18 has marked the point where things s… read more...

The Streak Ends For Jobless Claims

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 10:54:27:000

This morning's release of Initial Jobless Claims seems to have made an about-face from the impressively strong reading of 199K seen last week . On a seasonally-adjusted basis, claims for this week not only went back above 200K, but also skyrocketed all the way to 253K; their highest level sin… read more...

Dalio's Fear Of The Next Downturn Is Likely Understated

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 09:06:06:000

"What scares me the most longer term is that we have limitations to monetary policy - which is our most valuable tool - at the same time we have greater political and social antagonism." - Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates Dalio made the remarks in a panel discussion at the World Economi… read more...

Will The Fed's Capitulation Come Back To Sack Investor Portfolios?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 08:55:08:000

In December of 2007, I offered readers insight into a predictive model for recessions . Shortly thereafter, in the first week of January (2008), Investor's Business Daily highlighted my five-point model and its 80% probability of economic contraction. One of the key components of the model … read more...

Did Powell Toss In The Towel Or Was It A Tactical Retreat?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 08:35:56:000

Overview: The Fed's dovish tone and earnings news are the main drivers of the capital markets today, helping lift stocks, bonds, and currencies. Large equity markets in Asia, including Japan, Hong Kong, China's CSI 300, India, and Indonesia, all rose more than 1%, putting the MSCI Asia Pacif… read more...

Is Housing The Spoiler For The U.S. Economy In 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 07:59:34:000

Yesterday's scheduled release of US gross domestic product ((GDP)) for the fourth quarter is still a mystery, courtesy of lingering effects of the partial government shutdown that ended last week. The good news is that whenever the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the data (the date remai… read more...

Have Investors Shifted Market Sentiment Too Quickly?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 05:49:42:000

Markets have bounced back from December's selloff. Russ discusses whether investors have shifted sentiment too quickly. As every fan of horror movies knows, the best way to elicit screams is to lull the audience into a false sense of security. It's when everyone has relaxed, thinking the w… read more...

The Wisdom Of Crowds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 05:45:56:000

By Erik Knutzen, Chief Investment Officer Multi-Asset Class Why was our Solving for 2019 audience less worried about recession but more cautious on equities? At our flagship annual conference for the EMEA region, Solving for 2019, it is now trad… read more...

Why Has Equity Index-Treasury Options Volatility Diverged?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 14:59:48:000

By Erik Norland After many years of exceptionally placid markets, equity volatility began to rise in 2018, spiking in both the first and fourth quarters in response to sharp selloffs. While bond prices rose during both these episodes, benefitting from a flight-to-quality response, implied … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: S&P Hits 2666 Again As Traders Take Another Stab At Recovery

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 14:03:55:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:48PM EST Earnings season delivers another rescue attempt for US stocks, which felt the sting of a pullback on Monday and a sedate Tuesday session. The Dow ( DIA ), which contains both Apple ( AAPL ) and Boeing ( BA ) shares, has tacked on over 300 points to its inde… read more...

ADP: Private U.S. Payrolls Post 'Significant Growth' In January

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 11:45:29:000

US companies added 213,000 workers to payrolls this month, according to the ADP National Employment Report . Although the monthly increase is below December's strong 263,000 gain, the latest number still reflect a healthy expansion for the labor market. The release goes a long way in dismissi… read more...

Leading Indicators Allay Fears Of A Looming Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 10:23:32:000

Investment Thesis Consisting early and late expansions, peaks, recessions and troughs, business cycles which typically last 1 12 years are a recurrent feature in an enterprise-based economy. With almost a decade passed since the end of the last recession in June 2009, the curren… read more...

She Can't Accept No

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 08:58:26:000

Overview: The UK Prime Minister has two weeks to strike a new deal with the EC over the Irish backstop or return to Parliament in mid-February to consider alternatives, six weeks before Brexit. Sterling has recovered about half of yesterday's drop. The Australian dollar's jump back to $0.720… read more...

Sterling Slumps After Brexit Shenanigans

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 08:19:01:000

Wednesday, January 30: Five things the markets are talking about The next U.S dollar move will depend on a plethora of factors from this week - investors are looking ahead to today's monetary policy announcement by the Fed (2:00 pm EDT), at which it is expected to leave interest rates unchan… read more...

Consumer Confidence Declined Again In January

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 03:37:21:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released Tuesday morning based on data collected through January 17. The headline number of 120.2 was a decrease from the final reading of 126.6 for December. Tuesday's number was below the Investing.com consen… read more...

Positive Earnings Surprises Lift The Market In January

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 02:10:32:000

The stock market celebrated wave after wave of better-than-expected fourth-quarter results last week. It appears that the analyst community was way too cautious with their 4Q earnings estimates, since many companies are providing positive guidance above analyst consensus estimates. Still, we m… read more...

Tax The Rich

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 02:09:19:000

By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. As the political season begins to heat up for 2020, we have seen an increasing number of proposals to provide free education, free healthcare, a universal guarantee of a living wage, etc. With an historic level of public debt topping $21 trillion and a deficit of… read more...

This Bull Market Is 'Snorting' Again - Going On 10 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 01:25:36:000

By Gary Alexander This bull market is intact. We never reached a 20% correction in the S&amp;P 500 on a closing basis. Last Christmas Eve brought us down 19.8% from the September 20 peak, but that was the second time that this bull market retreated over 19% without touching 20%. (The other… read more...

The Economics Of Immigration, Part II

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 17:28:28:000

Source "The reality is that the United States cannot survive without waves of immigrants. It's never been able to grow without immigrants, and there's no reason to believe it can now.The US economy has always depended on a constant inflow of low-paid workers. What has been true si… read more...

Technically Speaking For January 29

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 16:36:25:000

More companies are issuing earnings guidance containing bearish commentary on the Chinese economy (emphasis added): Shares of Caterpillar, the worlds largest heavy equipment maker, fell 9.13 percent and had their worst day since 2011 after the companys quarterly profit … read more...

An Omen For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 08:51:05:000

Stocks have benefited from an upside bias here in early 2019 , but I am concerned about what is to come later this spring. Raising my alarm, the Conference Board just published an ominous signal about the forward economy. The economy is the most important factor for stock market performance, … read more...

Treasury Inflation Forecasts Resume Slide Ahead Of Fed Meeting

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 08:32:24:000

A worrisome decline in the Treasury market's implied inflation forecasts that began last October appeared to stabilize in the new year. But over the last week, the downside bias has returned, raising questions about monetary policy ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve's policy meeting (Jan. 30)… read more...

Eurodollar University: The Essential Business Of Decoding Curves

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 08:12:07:000

It was the most common catchphrase of 2017, interest rates have nowhere to go but up. Maybe it was doomed from the start given that Alan Greenspan was among the more prominent commentators expressing this view. In his mind, the bond market was in a bubble and the party was already over. His … read more...

Weekly Market Notes - January 28, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 08:05:00:000

Read more … read more...

Fragile Tone Persists

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 07:35:53:000

Overview: The positive impulse in the capital markets seen last week has faded. The gap higher opening ahead of the weekend by the S&amp;P 500 was followed by a gap lower opening yesterday. The US threatened crackdown on Huawei disrupted equities in that sector, with as many as two dozen com… read more...

Technically Speaking: Can The Fed's Reversal Save The Bull?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 07:02:36:000

As we discussed in this past weekend's missive : A WSJ article suggesting that the Fed would not only stop hiking interest rates but also cease the balance sheet reduction which has been extracting liquidity from the market. In mid-2018, the Federal Reserve was adamant that a… read more...

The Deflating Stock Bubble Will Fuel A Bull Move In Mining Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 06:04:17:000

"The economic and financial condition of the U.S. and global economy is similar to that of 2008, although I think now it's a lot worse than it was back then… the 'gravity' of true fundamentals has finally gotten ahold of stocks..." Fundamentals ultimately drive value. In terms of the funda... read more...

Small Caps As Responsible Repurchasers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 05:30:00:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA Research reports on share buybacks (and popular hit jobs in the press) tend to focus on the large-cap segment of the market, but the small-cap story is just as important. In a recent post, we showed that although buybacks generate much controversy as a form of c… read more...

Equities: 6 Ways To Spot A Flagging Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 15:38:54:000

By Erik Norland Even after the recent bout of turbulence, the S&amp;P 500 is still up nearly 300% from its 2009 low. The tech heavy NASDAQ has risen nearly 550% over the same period (Figure 1). At nearly 10 years old, how much longer can the bull market last? Figure 1: The Bull Market B… read more...

We Are Heading Into Another Minsky Moment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 13:44:24:000

Most people think that financial stability is good. Actually, stability is bad for financial markets. Long periods of stability tend to provoke wild swings when market participant wake up from their lethargy. We might be heading to one of those moments. (Picture credit: The White House ) … read more...

Be Prepared, It's An Action-Packed Week In Capital Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 10:40:47:000

Monday, January 28: Five things the markets are talking about Global equities start the week on the back foot, as capital markets weigh political developments, from Sino-U.S trade to Brexit, against U.S corporate earnings that have to date surpassed many analysts' expectations, and this desp… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Where Do Things Stand Now?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 10:21:08:000

To be sure, it is rare to see the mood of the market swing from the depths of despair seen on Christmas Eve to the "happy days are here again" feeling of last week in such a short period of time. To review, starting December 3rd, stocks began moving down - in a straight line - with the S&amp… read more...

Time

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 10:14:23:000

"Time is Archimedes' Lever in Investing - Archimedes is often quoted as saying, 'Give me a lever long enough and I can move the earth.' In investing, that lever is time. The length of time investments will be held, the period of time over which investment results will be measured and judged, i… read more...

Getting Ducks Lined Up For Later In The Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 08:34:44:000

Overview: The global capital markets are consolidating ahead of this week's big events, which include the FOMC meeting, US jobs, an important Brexit vote in the UK parliament, and the first look at Q4 EMU and US GDP. The US dollar is narrowly mixed. Equities are mostly lower. European benchm… read more...

U.S. Corporate Borrowing Slump Is A Bearish Signal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 06:29:24:000

By Breakingviews American companies are issuing much less debt so far in 2019. While higher earnings thanks to lower taxes are part of the explanation, another is cuts in planned investments. That's how a trade war and political dysfunction can throttle the economy. Companies sold a litt… read more...

Random Predictions For 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 06:17:43:000

Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on January 28, 2019 [This blog post is an excerpt from a TSI commentary published about three weeks ago and covers a few general thoughts about what will happen in the financial world this year. Specific thoughts about what I e… read more...

The Wolf Street Report: January 27, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 05:55:43:000

And then the Stock Selloff Starts All Over Again. Since the Christmas Eve selloff-low, the S&amp;P 500 has risen 13%, including a 5% jump on December 26. But last week, the rally petered out and stocks ended flat. And now it gets complicated, with stock-market bulls hoping and praying for … read more...

Is The 2019 Stock Market Crash Over? Or Will The Bear Market Continue? (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 05:45:27:000

In this video we'll do a quick market review to see whether we're headed higher from here in stocks or if the bear is still creeping behind the corner. The market is battling through the major supply overhang (red zone) that I pointed out a few weeks ago. I'd expect a selloff from these… read more...

Greg Weldon Exclusive: Gold Is Rallying In All Other Fiat Currencies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 12:23:30:000

Welcome to this week's Market Wrap Podcast, I'm Mike Gleason. Coming up Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial joins us for a 2019 outlook. I'll ask him if he thinks the recent stock market rally has legs - and also for his forecast for gold this year. And Greg has some very interesting news r… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of January 21-25

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 11:52:30:000

The shutdown is over - at least for now. About a week ago, a colleague commented on Facebook that air travel problems would be the final straw, and he was right. The central question now is, "did this end soon enough to prevent damage from occurring?" Not likely. A large enough portion of th… read more...

Market Commentary - January 24, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 09:26:00:000

Read more … read more...

Sentiment Speaks: Have You Felt Like A 'Genius' In This Bull Market Or Have You Felt Lost?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 08:00:00:000

There is an old adage in the market which says that everyone is a genius in a bull market. What that really means is that as long as you keep looking to the long side in a bull market, you will be seen as a genius. But, remember, one of the main perquisites for maintaining &#… read more...

Fed Caves - Bulls Run

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 07:40:40:000

I could almost just reprint last week's newsletter as not much changed during the week. "Importantly, the previous deep 'oversold' condition which was supportive of the rally following Christmas Eve has now been fully reversed back into extreme 'overbought' territory. While this doesn'… read more...

The Week In Review: Are Home Sales Signaling A Upcoming Recession? Yes And No

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 07:02:00:000

Home sales historically begin contracting around two years prior to a recession - and home sales currently are contracting year-over-year. Is this a warning? This post also reviews the major economic releases issued this past week - although several scheduled releases were not made due to th… read more...

Updated Earnings And Revenue Beat Rate Numbers For Q4 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 06:11:55:000

The Q4 2018 earnings season continued to pick up steam this week as another 100+ companies reported. Next week things kick into full gear, however, with an estimated 325+ companies set to report. Below we take a look at the numbers we've seen so far this season. As shown in the first chart b… read more...

Divergence Reinvigorated

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 06:07:19:000

Last week the focus was on Europe. Prospects of a delay in Brexit helped extend sterling's gains to 11-week highs. Disappointing flash PMI for the eurozone and a dovish Draghi pushed the euro below $1.13 for the first time since mid-December. Speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia … read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - January 25, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 06:05:11:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. Fun with numbers I keep reading bloggers and pundits and strategists saying that the correction is over because the market is up 13.3% from its recent low on December 24th. The rationale seems to be "you can't dismiss a 13.3% ra… read more...

The Bear Market Rally Continues As The 5 Equity ETFs Climb Risky Levels

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 04:28:50:000

Today, I show the daily charts with their key technical levels. The Federal Reserve balance sheet remains a drag: As of Jan. 23, the balance sheet was marked at $4.047 trillion, down $453 billion since the end of September 2017 when it was $4.5 trillion. The first drain of 2019 was just… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Just The Facts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 09:29:48:000

For the Week: The S&amp;P 500 slipped 0.2% (up 6.3% y-t-d), while the Dow added 0.1% (up 6.0%). The Utilities increased 0.7% (up 0.6%). The Banks added 0.7% (up 14.5%), while the Broker/Dealers declined 1.5% (up 9.4%). The Transports slipped 0.9% (up 8.2%). The S&amp;P 400 Midcaps (up 9.4%) … read more...

Is A Global Economic Cooldown Brewing?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 08:04:11:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Quantitative Investment Strategy Analyst Dr. Kara Ng and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed the recent slowdown in global growth, impacts of the five-week partial U.S. government shutdown, and the effects of go… read more...

Fast And Furious: Time To Buckle Up (2019 Outlook)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 07:35:32:000

By James Puplava CFP "The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see." - Winston Churchill "There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know." - John Kenneth Galbraith The word "oracle" stems from the L… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: More Contrary Movement In Long And Short Leading Indicators

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 06:46:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark… read more...

U.S. Government Shutdown Paused For Now: Assessing The Economic Impact

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 04:59:15:000

The longest-ever US government shutdown has finally ended - at least temporarily - while negotiations continue over funding of a US-Mexico border wall. While the government will be reopened at least until February 15, the economic implications of the shutdown and the potential for more disrupt… read more...

Solid Start To Earnings Season For Real Estate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 04:32:51:000

Real Estate Weekly Review The shutdown is over, but perhaps thats not such a good thing. The S&amp;P 500 ( SPY ) rose more than 10% during the 35-day partial government shutdown, the longest shutdown in US history. Amid the volatile backdrop of political and trade uncertainty, US m… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: A Re-Energized Market Catches Many By Surprise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 04:00:39:000

"Patience is not just about waiting for something it's about how you wait, or your attitude while waiting." - Joyce Meyer The rally off the lows has been impressive, and like all short-term moves, they eventually run out of steam. For now, the turnaround has left the S&amp;P 9%… read more...

Will A European Slowdown Lead To Parity With The Dollar?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 02:40:36:000

The global slowdown appears to be hitting the Euro-area with the most force, sending some large countries such as Germany quickly towards a recession (if not in one already). All of this comes just as the ECB put an end to their bond-buying program which will certainly fuel those who… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of January 21-25

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 01:44:14:000

The purpose of Turning Points is to analyze the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to see if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." Currently, I have a 25% recession probabilit… read more...

Market Update: Relationship Normalization

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 00:30:40:000

By OpenMarkets Market relationships seem to have normalized: equities to fixed income, volatility to equities and fixed income, forex to the rest of the capital market. Jack Bouroudjian highlights those relationships and the impact they may have as we head into February. Edito… read more...

The Dow's Final Obstacle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 18:52:48:000

After spending the last few days consolidating the gains from the past months rally, an important test for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is now underway. In todays report well discuss the Dows attempt at overcoming one of its most widely watched inte… read more...

The Economics Of Immigration, Part I

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 17:24:13:000

The Statue of Liberty in New York Source "The bosom of America is open to receive not only the Opulent and respected Stranger, but the oppressed and persecuted of all Nations and Religions; whom we shall welcome to a participation of all our rights and privileges" (Georg… read more...

U.S. GDP Still Expected To Post Moderate Gain For Q4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 15:09:02:000

Next week's scheduled release of gross domestic product ((GDP)) for last year's fourth quarter will likely be delayed due to the partial government shutdown, but the latest estimates for the indicator still point to a moderate gain. The median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Cap… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Equity Futures Rally In Pre-Market, Gain More Ground Into The Afternoon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 14:44:15:000

Market Intro Wall St. Journal CNBC: 1:28 PM EST Investors continued to feed the stock market rally, now in its fifth week for US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ). The reading on spot VIX is now just half what it was just before Christmas. We saw a decent dip this week, but inv… read more...

Corrections Happen: This Is Still A Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 11:25:43:000

We all need to keep in mind that the SPX has rallied 60% over the course of the last three years and 330% in the last 10 years. Corrections are a normal part every bull market and a 20% drop doesn't even reach the primary trend-line for the S&amp;P 500. This week, we continue with the them… read more...

No Need To Worry About China

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 11:09:47:000

Is the U.S.-China trade war today's most pressing problem? That's the belief of a growing number of political commentators, including elder statesman Henry Kissinger. It's also an increasing worry for market pundits and investors. Today's discussion will focus on the influence the trade war ex… read more...

Gary Shilling On What Could Cause The Next Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 04:18:51:000

Jim Puplava recently spoke with financial analyst and commentator A. Gary Shilling on FS Insider . Shilling has a long history with Wall Street - he was fired from Merrill-Lynch for accurately calling the 1969-1970 recession, noting how important it is to be aware of the bias of many Wall S… read more...

The Stock Market Isn't The Economy (But It's Close!)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 03:27:47:000

Weve published several articles detailing the continued strength of the US economy as a whole. Yet, the stock market seems to ignore good data regarding the largest portion of the economy (consumer spending), such as continued job growth, rising wages, record-setting holiday spending… read more...

One-On-One With Chief Investment Officer: Market Opportunities And Risks In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 02:45:05:000

After seeing declines of nearly 10 percent in equity markets in December, investors are breathing a sigh of relief as markets stabilize and recover some of the losses. Will this relative calm last or will volatility return? Kim Parlee talks with Bruce Cooper, CEO and CIO at TD Asset Rea… read more...

Has The Next Leg Of Bear Started?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 02:33:35:000

By Jeff Greenblatt The crowd appears to have awakened upon return from the short Martin Luther King Day break. Last week equities surged on a report circulated by the business media that U.S.-China trade talks were making progress and would work on leveling the trade deficit over six years… read more...

Jobless Claims: Mic Drop

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 18:39:51:000

We've said it countless times over the last several years, and today we're forced to say it again regarding jobless claims. Wow! This week's report on first time claims not only came in lower than expected, but it also dropped below 200K to 199K. Not since November 1969 has a weekly jobless cl… read more...

Governments And Central Banks Got It Wrong, Will They Learn?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 16:48:31:000

Summary Over the last two years, The Bank of Canada, the US Federal Reserve System, and other central banks around the world (collectively, the Central Banks) have been on a mission to cool down the economy by raising interest rates. They are right about the fact that the economy is hot: not… read more...

Should We Sell Stocks Because Of The Consumer Sentiment Slide?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 14:29:51:000

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, published Friday January 18, 2019, marked serious slippage from its prior reporting at the end of December. As you might expect, a variety of issues were cited behind the decline in the consumer mood, with the government shutdown, U.S. trade… read more...

The Government Shutdown: The First Cracks Show Up In Consumer Spending

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 14:17:33:000

Introduction While surprisingly initial jobless claims fell to a 50-year low as of this morning's report, the first sign of macro stress to the economy due to the government shutdown showed up in last week's consumer sentiment report by the University of Michigan, which fell precipitously, p… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: SVXY Call Spreads Look Pretty Good Here

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 12:22:10:000

Market Intro CNBC: Thursday, 10:42 AM EST Spot VIX continues to tread water in Thursday trade, printing below the 20 handle as the session progresses. US equities ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) have see-sawed between modestly higher and lower prices. The markets pulled back after Comme… read more...

Stock Market Decline, Round 2?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 10:52:44:000

Don't avoid extremes, and don't choose any one extreme. Remain available to both the polarities - that is the art, the secret of balancing. - Rajneesh Stocks have had one helluva move off the of the lows last year, and theres growing nervousness around whether… read more...

Why Bear Markets Occur - Evidence For The Monetary Cause

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 09:51:12:000

There always have been theories about why Bear Markets and Recessions occur. Most people, traders, and economists have seen bear markets as resulting from either recessions or fears of recession. Keynes said that recessions are events that just happen and had no idea why they happened. Other s… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - January 24, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 09:40:11:000

The BCI at 244.7 is above last week's 243.8, and remains below this business cycle's peak as indicated by the BCIp at 62.3. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 5.4 is above last week's 5.0. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, or BC… read more...

Charts Both Bulls And Bears Should Consider

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 08:29:04:000

There has been a litany of articles written recently discussing how the stock market is set for a continued bull rally and that last year's 20% decline was just an anomaly. The are some primary points that are common threads among each of these articles which are: 1) interest rates are low, 2)… read more...

Poor EMU PMI Compounds ECB's Challenge

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 06:35:23:000

Overview: The eurozone's preliminary composite PMI for January fell to its lowest level since July 2013. It reinforces expectations for a dovish Draghi press conference and saw the euro unwind yesterday's gains. The US dollar is firmer against all the major currencies. Asian stocks gained, a… read more...

See The Forest For The Trees

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 15:41:32:000

I want the stock market to continue appreciating in value, but I do like it to take a nasty spill now and then, which can create buying opportunities in high-quality names at big discounts to their intrinsic value. Therefore, I welcome bouts of volatility. As Warren Buffet once said … read more...

Vive La R&#xE9;sistance? Investor Sentiment May Tell The Tale For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 15:26:10:000

Have we already witnessed the bursting of a stock balloon? Or, in contrast, have we merely experienced a volatile corrective phase in the continuation of the longest bull market on record? According to research at GMO, the bubble has burst and there's more downside to come. The author of a… read more...

Prepare For A Deep Recession And Bear Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 15:12:54:000

Well, I did warn you, indirectly at least. On November 2, 2017, I wrote an article titled " Beware 2-2.5%, Credit Ratings, And Debt ." I hinted that a stock market peak could happen when the Fed Funds rate was about 2.0-2.5%, thinking that could be when the 30-year treasury meets the Fed Funds… read more...

It (Still) Looks Like A Bear Market For U.S. Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 14:31:46:000

On Christmas Eve, the US stock market appeared to be caught in a bear market, based on econometric analysis via a Hidden Markov model ((HMM)) . Since then, we've seen a strong rally in the new year. But the regime shift to the dark remains intact and in fact has strengthened. On the Chris… read more...

We Apologize For Being Optimistic - 1st Quarter 2019 Investor Newsletter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 12:42:34:000

Manole Capital Management 1 st Quarter 2019 Investor Newsletter, January 2019 If you wish to view any of Manole Capitals proprietary research, thematic notes, prior newsletters or individual stock calls, please visit the Seeking Alpha website and search for Manole Capital. We… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: VX Term Structure Takes The Middle Ground

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 12:17:45:000

Market Intro CNBC: Wed, 10:17 AM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are managing a partial comeback after the bottom seemed to fall out in Tuesday trade. Strong earnings have the Dow in particular beginning the session with a bright open. Spot VIX tracks right around the 20 lev… read more...

Markets Walk Tightrope After Yesterday's U.S. Equity Drop

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 10:02:30:000

Overview: Global equities have fared better than the 1.4% slide in the S&amp;P 500 yesterday may have implied. Asian markets were mixed, with China, Korea, Hong Kong, and Thailand advancing. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 from Europe is a little changed after falling for the past two sessions. News… read more...

Are Stocks Cheap Or Expensive? My Action Plan For 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 07:27:31:000

Depending on what kind of valuation indicator you are looking at, you can either say that US stocks are excessively overvalued or reasonably priced. It ultimately comes down to how sustainable you think current earnings numbers are in the middle term. When making investment decisions for 201… read more...

Winter 2018 Investor Letter: A Tough Year For Most Asset Classes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 03:52:00:000

As noted in our Winter 2018 Investor Letter, following passage of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, the reduction in corporate tax rates caused analysts to revise their earnings growth expectations higher to nearly 24% for 2018. Given a number of positives, further upside in equity markets was anticip… read more...

Equity Moves, Fund Flows And Fear

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 03:25:19:000

By Aneet Chachra, CFA On January 2, Apple (AAPL) announced its Q4 results would be weaker than expected. Trading in Apple shares was halted at 4:30 p.m. New York time (well after the official 4 p.m. market close), the press release came out and shares resumed trading at 4:50 p.m. Large ass… read more...

Troubling Tuesday - China Slows Down While IMF Warns Of Global Contagion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 12:05:07:000

So the World leaders (the ones that matter) are gathered at Davos this week and, so far, they are not too optimisitc about the economy with China's economy posting the weakest growth in 28 years and the IMF taking the entire Global Growth forecast down to 3.5% , from 3.7% last quarter, knocki… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: All Clear?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 11:11:40:000

The bad news is that after a rather rambunctious rally, the S&amp;P 500 remains -8.9% from its all-time high. The good news is that after the -19.8% shellacking that ended on Christmas Eve, the stock market now starts the week well above its December lows and looking good. To be sure, the re… read more...

Are We In The Shortest Recession Ever?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 10:23:17:000

I'm not afraid of storms, for I'm learning how to sail my ship. - Louisa May Alcott Were in a recession! Things are about to get ugly! Hold on! No seriously. Hold on. For all of the rhetoric around a recession that is either coming or already happening, it&#x2… read more...

Being Right Or Making Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 10:19:48:000

Ned Davis wrote the book "Being Right or Making Money" in 1991. We mention it this morning, because we are doing a conference call today with Ned at 10:00 a.m. As most of you know, Ned is one of the best on Wall Street. The book resides on my desk, because I often refer to it. In the introduct… read more...

Shutdown And Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 10:07:16:000

The stock market is ignoring the shutdown. The bond market is, too. So, too, are commodities, currencies, precious metals, fine art and other collectibles, sovereign debt, and many other asset classes. Those markets are moving for other reasons and not federal shutdown. Why? Markets believ… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Little Drops Are Healthy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 09:29:07:000

Market Intro Bloomberg CNBC: Tuesday, 8:23AM EST Spot VIX prints 18.61 about an hour before the open. Global stocks ( ACWX , EFA , EEM ) are down for today, but the spill is quite contained at present. US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) do appear primed to track lower alongsi… read more...

Why Are Expectations (Sentiment) Changing So Fast?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 09:13:24:000

Expectations of monetary tightening have been changing rapidly, following the swings in the stock market. As the S&amp;P 500 ( SPY ) was making new all-time highs, the expectations of monetary tightening over the upcoming year were as high as 90 basis points, indicating 3-4 more rate hikes we… read more...

Fundamentally Speaking: 2019 Estimates Are Still Too High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 08:28:23:000

So far in fourth quarter reporting season, with 11 percent of the results reported for the S&amp;P 500, three-quarters of companies have actually surprised Wall Street's forecasters. Earnings are shaping up to be better than people expected." - CNBC While it is a correct statement, it al… read more...

Dollar Consolidates And Equity Rally Stalls

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 08:19:16:000

Overview: The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. The yen is a notable exception, and it is firmer, but well within recent ranges. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Norwegian krona are the weakest of the majors as a setback in equities and oil reflects a d… read more...

Current Market Conditions - Something To Like And Something To Hate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 02:00:00:000

Read more … read more...

Peter Schiff: The Recession Is A Done Deal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 15:07:50:000

By SchiffGold US stock markets had a strong week last week. The Dow Jones capped it off gaining more than 300 points on Friday. Optimism about a trade deal with China along with increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes buoyed the markets…. read more...

Questions We Hear A Lot

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 12:22:22:000

While we dont presently observe conditions to look for a buying opportunity or a bottom from a full-cycle standpoint, we do observe conditions that are permissive of a scorching market rebound, even if it only turns out to be the fast, furious,… read more...

Chinese Data And U.K. Brexit Start New Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 09:36:36:000

Overview: Mixed data from China and the anticipation of Prime Minister May's "Plan B" are the main talking points, while US stock and bond markets are closed today. Asia Pacific equities were higher, while European markets have failed to follow suit. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly … read more...

Ep. 80 - MicroCap Investing: Recapping 2018, Looking Ahead To 2019 With Maj Soueidan And Chris 'Quoth The Raven' Irons, GeoInvesting.com

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 06:17:47:000

For this episode of Planet MicroCap Podcast, I spoke with Maj Soueidan and Chris "Quoth the Raven" Irons from GeoInvesting.com. At GeoInvesting.com, Maj, Chris and whole team there are studying the microCap market on a daily basis for their newsletter: looking at every news release, reading fi… read more...

Are Recessions About Employment?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 05:45:11:000

Id say yes, but Nick Rowe disagrees . He recently tweeted an old post from 2015, which ends as follows: Recessions are not about output and employment and saving and investment and borrowing and lending and interest rates and time and uncertainty. The only essential things are a… read more...

The 'Christmas Eve Massacre' And Where We Stand Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 05:41:07:000

First and Foremost By early October 2018, the S&amp;P 500 had more than quadrupled off its 666, 2009 secular bear market low (up over 300%). This was capped off by a spectacular 24-month run that saw the S&amp;P 500 increase more than 50% to a new all-time high of 2,951.81 (10/3/18)…. read more...

Recession Indicators Reported As Of 1/19/2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 05:32:07:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on January 20, 2019, by Menzie Chinn here . I focus on the series highlighted by the NBER's business cycle dating committee (BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income exclud… read more...

A Shaky Start To The New Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 04:24:12:000

Original Post By Stuart Burns It is not just the stock market that is having a wobble - firms are asking if now is the right time to be investing in new capacity or raising production. 2018 was a stellar year for the U.S. jobs market, but recent figures suggest part of that may hav… read more...

The Wolf Street Report: January 20, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 04:17:07:000

And This Isn't Even a Global Recession Yet. Auto sales plunged in China over the past four months. What was particularly disconcerting was the sharp deterioration at the end of the year in other markets, not just China. Each market has its own problems, but they're sure coming together a… read more...

The Fourth-Quarter Market Meltdown Explained

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 04:14:15:000

Correlated Chaos The financial markets these days are highly leveraged, especially with the loose monetary policy of the last decade providing ample credit for one-sided risk-taking. Add in the fact that financial markets have become highly correlated, with computer-driven algos preprogramme… read more...

Adapting To Change

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 14:35:35:000

As anticipated, all the pundits who have been bearish suddenly turned bullish after the market concluded one of the best weekly and monthly advances in nearly a year. Most of these "experts" now state that the market probably bottomed right after Christmas. Hah! Isn't that looking in the rear-… read more...

Prospects For The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 13:10:07:000

Last year, 2018, the Federal Reserve changed course and, as a consequence, the stock market changed course. For much of the period, beginning with the turnaround from the Great Recession, up until late 2017, the Federal Reserve was intent upon underwriting the economic recovery by creating a… read more...

The Bear Market Rally Continues As The Weekly Charts For The 5 Equity ETFs Are Positive

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 11:44:57:000

The bear market rally extended last week and now all five major equity ETFs have positive weekly charts. Today, I show the weekly charts with their key technical levels. Unwinding the Federal Reserve balance sheet remains a drag: As of Jan. 16, the balance sheet was marked at $4.050… read more...

Sector ETF Week In Review For January 14-18

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 09:44:25:000

For the last 3-5 months, the sector rotation has been decidedly end-of-cycle, with the utility, healthcare, real estate, and consumer staples ETFs leading. That is now changing. Let's start with last week's performance table:The financial sector was the best performer, outpacing the number t… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of January 14-18

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 08:07:47:000

Yes, the budget impasse will hurt growth: There are two generally-accepted models of the macro economy: aggregate demand/aggregate supply (AD/AS) and the investment-savings/liquidity money supply (IS/LM). Both models contain all the elements of GDP: the AD and IS line can be thought of as co… read more...

U.S. Government Shutdown - Dimensioning The Economic Effects

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 07:34:43:000

By Eric Winograd The US government shutdown is almost four weeks old, and there's no sign that the standoff will be resolved anytime soon. How much has the shutdown impacted - and how much will it impact - economic growth? That depends on how long it lasts. The current shutdown dates bac… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - January 18, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 07:25:13:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. The end of the correction or a bear market rally? Several months ago, I called for a correction of 12-15%. We got it. Now the question is whether this is the end of the correction or just a bear market rally that will peter out … read more...

The Week In Review: Will The Government Shutdown Depress The Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 06:56:00:000

The headlines across the media are talking about how much the Trump and Pelosi shutdown is costing. Most of it is true to varying degrees, but the words are telling only part of the story. This post also reviews the major economic releases issued this past week - although several scheduled rel… read more...

Bulls Take Round One

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 06:36:59:000

Last week, we discussed the continuation of the rally from the December 24th lows. "The rally, as we laid out two weeks ago, continues to work within the expected range back to 2,650-2,700." "Importantly, the previous deep 'oversold' condition which was supportive of the rally foll… read more...

Things To Watch In The Week Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 06:07:39:000

"The sky is falling. The sky is falling," they cried, as equities plunged in December. It is signaling a recession, we were told. Instead, global equities have begun the year with a strong advance. The S&amp;P 500 gapped higher ahead of the weekend, extending this year's rally to about 14%. … read more...

The Banks And The Federal Reserve Seem To Be Positioned Well

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 14:29:35:000

The one word that seems to describe the economic picture for 2019 is uncertain. The current economic recovery in the United States will hit its tenth anniversary this summer, but an uncertain atmosphere surrounds the world, both business-wise and politically. So, where does… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Stocks Rebound Off The Lows, Patience And Discipline Are The Keys To Success

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 13:14:23:000

Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts and in part on your ability to realize, at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike, that this too, shall pass. - Jack Bogle A quick recap of the last five months shows new highs for… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Tax Withholding Craters

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 07:05:00:000

Purpose I look at the high-frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark y… read more...

Key Financial Indicators Are Healthy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 07:00:52:000

Monday's post focused on key economic indicators. Today's post focuses on key financial indicators, which for the most part are market-driven and available in real-time. As such, they should carry more weight in one's assessment of the economy's fundamentals. They aren't subject to estimates… read more...

Lipper U.S. Weekly FundFlows Insight Report: Funds Suffer Net Outflows Driven By Money Market Funds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 06:42:18:000

By Patrick Keon Lipper's fund asset groups (including both mutual funds and ETFs) experienced net outflows of $14.2 billion for the fund-flows trading week ended Wednesday, January 16. Money market funds (-$15.0 billion) were responsible for the majority of the net negative flows as invest… read more...

Government Shutdown: Effects And Implications

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 04:59:20:000

By Michael T. Townsend The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab &amp; Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. The partial government shutdown, already the longest on record, is heading for its fifth week with few … read more...

The Economic Cost Of The U.S. Shutdown Showdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 04:51:11:000

The partial U.S. government shutdown that began on 22 December 2018 has entered its record-setting fourth week, with no clear resolution in sight. Although the $5.7 billion of border wall funding at the heart of the shutdown is small relative to the annual $4 trillion government budget, its sy… read more...

Stocks In 2019: Volatility Is Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 04:32:25:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA Volatility is back. It was easy to forget how downside pain in equities could feel given robust growth over the last decade - and especially the two years ending January 2018. Robust corporate profits and a benign interest rate environment meant that prices of ris… read more...

What's Powering January's Market Rally?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 03:03:08:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist Erik Ristuben and Sophie Antal Gilbert, head of AIS business solutions, discussed the recent rally in equity markets, developments on the Brexit front and the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on consumer and bus… read more...

A Slowdown Is In The Bag, But What About A Recession?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 00:11:30:000

There is little doubt that the US economy is in a state of slowdown. That's actually a good thing, because it offers some time to pause and refresh, thereby postponing either a recession or overheating or both. These pauses perform the same function as a pit stop in a car race, where a quick r… read more...

10 Charts To Watch In 2019 For Multi-Asset Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 18:24:30:000

I spent a lot of time in the 2018 End of Year Special Edition looking back across the year, covering some of my best charts and calls (and some of the worst !). But this article provides a look at the most important part of that report… As interesting and sometimes even amusing as it ... read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: January Continues To Smile On Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 15:43:30:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday 2:47 EST Spot VIX is holding its own while stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) continue their intrepid rally higher. Bloomberg According to Bloomberg, a major catalyst for today's positive movement in stocks may be on account of China extending an oliv… read more...

Bond Market Week In Review For January 14-18

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 15:26:35:000

This week, the BLS released the latest information on prices, starting with PPI. You can think of the price process as PPI eventually influencing CPI to some extent. With that mind, let's look at PPI from a historical perspective: At the end of the 1990s expansion, the Y/Y percentage change … read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of January 14-18

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 13:51:10:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to determine if the economy is at a "turning point." I currently have a recession probabili… read more...

The Great Unwind Is Upon Us

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 10:57:05:000

What Woke The Bear? It might appear as though the initial catalyst to the rapid decline in stock prices that began last October was the spike in the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.25%, which is a level we havent seen since 2011. This was followed by an escalation in trade tensions bet… read more...

Markets Finishing Week On Positive Note

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 09:05:17:000

Overview: Sentiment has improved since the volatility last month spooked investors and, perhaps, some policymakers. Global equities are rallying. The Shanghai Composite and the Nikkei are at their best levels in almost a month, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at its best level since early D… read more...

The Fortune Teller's Predictions For 2019: S&P 500 At A Critical Juncture

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 07:25:00:000

Background On November 27th 2018 we introduced the Wheel of FORTUNE 's end of 2018 mega poll and invited everyone to spin the wheel with us. In this poll, we asked participants to predict (guess or assess) the closing levels, on January 11th 2019, of four of the most important gau… read more...

Small caps just did something they haven't in three decades

via: CNBC at 2019-01-18 07:15:00:000

No summary available. read more...

January Business Conditions Monthly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 04:03:30:000

By Robert Hughes AIER's Leading Indicators Index Fell To The Lowest Level Since October 2016; Household Net Worth Hit Another New Record High. AIER's Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index fell 21 points to 58 in December. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index held at 100… read more...

Are We Nearing Another Credit Crisis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 03:40:08:000

By Jeff Greenblatt Last week I mentioned a potential intermediate- to longer-term vibrational change for the bond market ; now we are starting to see some follow-through. It's not enough to induce insomnia just yet, but if this seedling grows strong roots, we might be having more serious … read more...

The Economy Is Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 17:23:13:000

In August of last year, I wrote an article entitled "As Good As It Gets " which discussed the record levels being set by a broad swath of economic indicators. To wit: First, "record levels" of anything are records for a reason. It is where the point where previous limits were reached. Th… read more...

SEPTICS Are Flushing The FAANGs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 17:04:19:000

By Jeff Weniger Last year, we wrote " Time to Move from FAANGs to SEPTICS? " Let's revisit the topic. The FAANG pack consists of Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google's parent, Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), which were knocking the lights out of virtually every… read more...

An Improving Interest Rate Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 12:26:47:000

The outlook for stocks and corporate bonds is bullish for the first time in several months, thanks to recent improvement in the interest rate outlook. In today's report, we'll review the aspects of the bond market which point to an encouraging corporate profit outlook in the coming months. I… read more...

Sentiment Shows More Upside Potential Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 12:08:45:000

Has the buying opportunity for stocks passed already? If you listen to the bearish analysts out there, then you would probably be inclined to say "yes." As I'll argue in today's report, however, there is still plenty of upside potential ahead for equities. What's more, the stock market's senti… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Shortest Bear Market In History?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 11:52:17:000

Market Intro CNBC: Thursday 9:11AM EST On Wednesday the SPX picked up in the early session, only to flag at the end of the day. ES futures dipped to 2596 in the after-hours market, and we're now seeing a rebound. Spot VIX has printed within a fairly narrow range of 18.70-19.72. Marke… read more...

2018 In The Numbers And What It Means For 2019 - Part VI: Currencies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 11:00:08:000

There is no future without a past, because what is to be cannot be imagined except as a form of repetition. - Siri Hustvedt Background Normally, in a broadly-diversified portfolio, there's something that's working well, in any given year. The most intuitive example is the (histori… read more...

The United States' Path To Winning The U.S.-China Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 10:40:14:000

Source: Chinadaily.com Historical Precedent For U.S. Trade Wars "A fast-rising Asian power has built up a huge trade surplus with the U.S. and threatens American economic supremacy. Washington is outraged at how this new giant has acquired U.S. technologyoften, U.S. officials … read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Equity Market Chart Book January 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 10:20:00:000

Today's topic: the U.S. Equity Market "The market has recently rebounded substantially… [of] the main items that seem to be continuing to cause volatility, the the most important [may be] China... Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha... read more...

Will Shutdown Risk End This Year's Equity Sector Rallies?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 09:19:57:000

The partial government shutdown could be a slow-moving train wreck for the US economy, but for the moment, the crowd is inclined to reprice the major equity sectors higher in the new year following 2018's haircut. With the exception of utilities, year-to-date returns are positive across the bo… read more...

Risk Assets Underperform As Investors Await Fresh Developments

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 08:57:25:000

Overview: The capital markets remain relatively subdued as fresh trading incentives are awaited, including US corporate earnings. Some of the enthusiasm for risk-assets has diminished. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has stalled after trading at six-week highs yesterday, though most bourses … read more...

Searching The Housing Market For A Rationalization

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 13:56:46:000

We have been arguing, and continue to argue, that the fear exhibited lately by market participants is premature and irrational. Of course, since it's fear that drives markets, the market has been driven into a correction. Although fundamentals do not drive markets, they do establish and su… read more...

Government Shutdown: Melt-Up Or Sucker's Rally?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 13:18:04:000

Start every day off with a smile and get it over with. - W. C. Fields Its good to know markets can actually move in more than one direction, isnt it? Last year, for lack of a better way of saying it, simply sucked. The three major declines of February, Oct… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - January 14, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 08:55:00:000

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The Shutdown Begins To Weigh On The Economic Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 07:46:35:000

Will the US government's stalemate over budget negotiations trigger a recession? In "normal" times, this question would be dismissed as absurd. But the times, they are a changin'. The good news is that the latest numbers still indicate that the US macro trend remains positive. As The Capital… read more...

Markets Are Eerily Calm

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 06:55:58:000

Overview: There is an eerie calm in the capital market through the European morning today despite some ostensibly worrisome developments. While many, like ourselves, expect UK Prime Minister May to survive a vote of confidence, it hardly clarifies the outlook. The US government shutdown cont… read more...

Understanding Market Volatility, Part I

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 04:22:23:000

By George P. Maris, CFA In the first of two videos, George Maris, Co-Head of Equities - Americas, discusses fundamental reasons for the return of market volatility and the potential opportunities created for bottom-up investors. Key Takeaways Although volatility has surged in recent… read more...

Broadleaf Partners 2019 Investment Playbook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 03:08:00:000

At the end of each year, we like to look back on the year that was and consider what we got right, what we got wrong, and what we might have learned in the process. We then turn our attention to the year to come, hoping that by putting our thoughts in writing, well gain greater clarity… read more...

First Eagle Global Value Team Annual Letter 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 02:40:00:000

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Investor Sentiment Stays Positive Despite Geopolitical Drama

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 02:24:57:000

Originally published Jan. 14, 2019 Weekly Market Compass: Investors seem to be tuning out everything except trade wars and Fed tightening By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist in Market &amp; Economic There has been no shortage of drama across the macroeco… read more...

Current Downturn Ours Courtesy Of Extreme Monetary Intervention

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 01:50:27:000

While many commentators are calling on central banks to stop tightening and start increasing monetary slack once more as the global slowdown deepens, the fact is that current financial strife has been purchased by years of central bank slack that drove overcapacity and mal-investment through t… read more...

The Bear Market Rally Is Almost Over - Prudent Investors Should Reduce Their Risk Exposure

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 17:35:52:000

2018 Market Review The stock market sell-off, which began in early October, accelerated in December, and the S&amp;P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000 declined by 9.0% and 11.9%, respectively. Investors were fearful that the Federal Reserve was too hawkish and intent on raising interest r… read more...

Doctor Copper Is A Quack

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 16:24:41:000

"Who is Doctor Copper?" We bet Ayn Rand would have sold far less books with that catchphrase rather than the world renowned " Who is John Galt ?" But in the investing world "Doctor Copper" is well known and has a big reputation. The term Doctor Copper is market lingo for the base metal th… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Netflix Saves The Day (But Just For A Day)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 15:18:59:000

Market Intro Netflix ( NFLX ) announced a price increase (13-18%) that caused investors to cheer, which arguably prodded US stocks higher ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ). The S&amp;P has now recovered from much of December's carnage. We're still a good 12.75% price increase in order to recapt… read more...

2018 In The Numbers And What It Means For 2019 - Part V: Commodities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 13:24:00:000

(Hard to) Keep the Faith Normally, in a broadly-diversified portfolio, there's something that's working well, in any given year. The most intuitive example is the (historical) inverse correlation that exists between stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM , IVV , VTI , VOO , VEA , EFA , IE… read more...

2018 In The Numbers And What It Means For 2019 - Part IV: Cash

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 12:51:00:000

And the Winner is… Cash! Normally, in a broadly diversified portfolio, there's something that's working well, in any given year. The most intuitive example is the (historical) inverse correlation that exists between stocks ( SPY , QQQ , DIA , IWM , IWN , IWO ) and bonds. When stocks a... read more...

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Set For Moderate Slowdown In Q4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 09:37:34:000

Economic output is still on track to decelerate to a moderately slower pace in the government's fourth-quarter report on gross domestic product ((GDP)) due later this month, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. Today's update reflects a slightly… read more...

Technically Speaking: Bull Or Bear? Comparing Views

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 09:13:06:000

As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and "hope" begins. While earnings expectations have weakened markedly in recent months, the bulls remain steadfast in their belief the market correction is now over. As I discussed in this past… read more...

New Phase Begins With U.K. Vote

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 08:34:33:000

Overview: Several of the equity benchmarks are flirting with six-week highs, including MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Emerging Markets Index. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trying to extend its advancing streak for a third week, something not done since July. The 350 level, which it is toying w… read more...

U.S. Equities: Could 2018 Pain Become 2019 Gain?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 05:48:45:000

By James T. Tierney, Jr., Frank Caruso and Kurt Feuerman With US stocks facing multiple risks, it's easy to lose sight of the positive trends that could help the market recover. In 2019, investors should search for select stocks with the right attributes to produce positive surprises in a … read more...

It's Different This Time: Risk Is Up And Here To Stay

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 05:35:03:000

By Daniel J. Loewy, Caglasu Altunkopru and Martin Atkin Investors are likely to remember 2018 as the end of the era of easy money, low volatility and steady margin expansion. Investing will be more challenging in 2019 - and diversification will be more important than ever. Among the chal… read more...

Heads Longs Lose, Tales Shorts Win - A Catch-22 For U.S. Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 13:43:42:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Thomas Horan as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more Here is a ch… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: Is Enough Baked In?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 13:23:28:000

After a very scary decline and then an impressive rally, the question most investors are probably asking themselves is, where are we now? In order to get our bearings, let's review where we've been. Recall that as of the market close on Christmas eve, the bears had pummeled the S&amp;P 500 f… read more...

Stocks Supported As Fresh Inflation Data Shows Fed Can Be Friendly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 13:23:23:000

The latest inflation relative data release, the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) for the month of December 2018, shows the U.S. Federal Reserve can be easier on interest rates. Without current inflation pressures or any pressing need for Fed hawkishness, the environment for equities becomes more f… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Will Earnings Support The Stock Market Recovery?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 11:05:25:000

Market Intro CNBC: 9:40AM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) have put forth a valiant rally, and earnings season likely needs to confirm that boost if it is to have legs. For now, it is fair to assess that most of the battering this morning to US equities comes as a sympathet… read more...

It's Not The Fed - The Market Is Keeping Rates Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 11:04:10:000

The Fed is Manipulating Interest Rates? Many are suggesting the Federal Reserve is holding down interest rates. This is a false conclusion since the FOMC only controls the overnight lending rate, the Fed funds rate. And even for this rate, the Fed essentially tends to follow the market exp… read more...

Retests, Recessions, And Rallies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 10:04:52:000

Recently, much has been written, and said, about a retest. The reference is about the major indices pulling back to their recent December closing lows, creating a double-bottom in the charts. In the case of the S&amp;P 500 (SPX/2596.26) that would mean a pullback and retest of the December 24,… read more...

It's A Supply Side World In Europe As Well As In The United States

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 09:31:08:000

In the past couple of years, when I have been writing about the United States economy, I have emphasized my belief that the supply side of the economy was dominating markets and demand side government economic policies would do very little in the way of producing greater economic output. Thr… read more...

Charts Implying Economic Weakness - January 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 09:27:41:000

Please note: This is the latest in a series of articles, the last being " Charts Implying Economic Weakness - December 2018." U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site, there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially… read more...

Zero Sum Game?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 08:57:51:000

A fishing buddy (Camp Kotok regular) and thoughtful financial professional Steve Blumenthal opened one of his weekly missives with this paragraph, in which he introduced a commentary from Ray Dalio. It's not the substance of Dalio's post that I want to focus on, but a key word usage by Ray Dal… read more...

5 Ways To Beat The Market: Size Update For 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 08:48:25:000

Do stocks with smaller market capitalizations tend to outperform larger companies? While the megacaps like Apple and Amazon tend to grab the headlines, the choice between small-cap stocks and large cap stocks is one that most stock investors make. Many 401k options offer a small-cap sleeve. Th… read more...

Respite

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 11:45:05:000

"I decided that there was only one place to make money in the mutual fund business, as there is only one place for a temperate man to be in a saloon: behind the bar and not in front of it." - Paul Samuelson Looking with interest at the strong rebound in high beta in credit markets in conju… read more...

Sector ETF Week In Review For January 7-11

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 11:23:53:000

Let's start where we always do: performance tables. First of all, everybody rose; the only difference is degree. A more dovish Fed tone hoisted real estate into the top position. But industrials and consumer discretionary were the second and third best-performing ETFs. At the bottom of the… read more...

The Bear Market Rally Will Continue If The Equity ETFs Have Positive Weekly Charts This Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 11:00:36:000

Today, I show the weekly charts with their key technical levels. The Federal Reserve balance sheet remains a negative drag: As of Jan. 9, the balance sheet was marked at $4.056 trillion, down $444 billion since the end of September 2017 when it was $4.5 trillion. The first drain of 2019 … read more...

Market Commentary - January 10, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 09:20:00:000

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Macro Update - January 9, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 08:55:00:000

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Bull Rallies And Market Tops

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 08:38:40:000

Bull Rallies &amp; Market Tops Last week, we discussed the fulfillment of our expectations for a bull rally. While the rally was attributed to the rather "dovish" stance taken by Jerome Powell and commentary from the White House on potential progress on resolving the "trade war" with C… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - January 11, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 08:30:30:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. "The only thing faster than the speed of light is a rally in a bear market." - Ralph Wanger, manager of the Oakmark Small Cap Fund What Mr. Wanger was saying was that bear markets are often punctuated by swift and brief rallie… read more...

Market Commentary: Issues 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 05:28:01:000

When I began posting the CBB some twenty years ago, I made a commitment to readers: "I'll call it as I see it - and let the chips fall where they will." Over the years, I made a further commitment to myself: Don't be concerned with reputation - stay diligently focused on analytical integrity. … read more...

Stocks May Be Stuck In Volatile Trading Range For 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 04:49:10:000

By FS Staff Craig "Bullseye" Johnson of Piper Jaffray (who earned such a moniker for his spot-on calls) recently spoke on Financial Sense Newshour to give an update on his outlook. When we last talked with him in October, he predicted that the market decline was not over and expected a… read more...

U.S. Recession? Not Quite

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 04:26:21:000

Originally published on January 5, 2019 Ten years after the global financial crisis, markets have had a bumpy ride. Investors are starting to ask: is a recession on the horizon, or do we still have a ways to go? Richard Turnill , Chief Investment Strategist for the BlackRock Investme… read more...

Fed's Dovishness Confirmed - Focus Shifts To Brexit And Earnings Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 13:40:45:000

By Ed Moya The US dollar continues to weaken in 2019, this week's decline was supported by the Fed's minutes and a busy week of FOMC talk that cemented views that the Fed can wait on the next interest rate hike. The narrative now shifts from central bank focus to Brexit and earnings season… read more...

Chart Of The Day... Or Century?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 11:11:08:000

As I wrote last summer on CD, I've probably created and posted more than 3,000 graphics on CD, Twitter, and Facebook including charts/graphs, tables, figures, maps and Venn diagrams over the last 12 years. Of all of those graphics, I don't think any single one has ever gotten more attention,… read more...

The Great Paradox In Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 08:28:34:000

Over the past few weeks, the stock market has moved from an oversold extreme to an overbought extreme, a function of the violent December sell-off followed by the near-vertical rally. On December 24, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,351, down 14.8% on the month and 20% from its all-time high. Not… read more...

Bond Market Week In Review For January 7-11

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 07:45:06:000

The latest Fed Meeting Minutes were posted on Wednesday. They indicate a clear change in policy. Here's the first (emphasis added): After taking into account incoming economic data, information from business contacts, and the tightening of financial conditions, participants generally r… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: A Rally Off Of The Lows Leaves The Market At A Crossroad

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 07:38:05:000

"Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology." - Seth Klarman Since the stock market is forward looking, any time we see a big decline, it raises fears that something is wrong with the economy. Sometimes it is a real issue and then there are instances where investors ca… read more...

Stocks Are Cheap(ish)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 07:20:23:000

With the exception of a few, hardy centenarian traders, nobody has ever witnessed a December like the one that just ended. A difficult year ended with a collapse in equities as investors began to discount a growing possibility of an economic slowdown. Globally stocks fell roughly 8%, leaving e… read more...

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Changes To Both The Long And Short Leading Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 07:20:00:000

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark y… read more...

Market Outlook: Short-Term Momentum And Long-Term Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 04:46:35:000

Market action has been breathtaking over the past several weeks. The S&amp;P 500 crushed to 2,350 on December 24, falling by 20% from its previous highs. After that, we got a fast a furious rebound, recovering almost 10% in a few days and now trading near key resistance levels around 2,600. … read more...

The Fed's 'Patience' Preserves Its Independence

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 02:04:58:000

A series of unfortunate mistakes has exposed the Feds lack of communications and monetary policy making best practices. In these explosive politically charged times, Chairman Powell is playing with fire and will get burned more than he has been already. The odds on self-immolation have… read more...

Are Fed Rate Hikes Still On The Table For 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 01:49:14:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed the recent downtick in business confidence, the likelihood of a pause in interest-rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) … read more...

IJS: Profit Off Of Small-Cap Performance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 12:16:45:000

Many investors have heard that small-cap stocks tend to outperform the large-cap ones that make up the S&amp;P 500 ( SPY ) over time. The reason for this should be somewhat obvious as financial theory tells us that there is a direct link between risk and reward, and small-cap companies are gen… read more...

The Stock Market Bears Simply Don't Get It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 11:22:00:000

There are signs that the US stock market is heating up, and global markets in Asia and Europe are suggesting a surge may be coming and soon too. Now is the time to prepare yourself for this surge and put together that list of stocks you like. Should the breakout happen, it's likely to lead to … read more...

After 2018's Falls, There Are Some Cheap Stock Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 08:15:21:000

Investors have to balance two sides of the personality coin. Excessive pessimism and caution will lead to sitting on too much cash (or cash proxies, like Treasury bills) over long periods of time, which will result in ultra-low returns. Whereas, uncritical optimism, such as throwing everything… read more...

Trade Optimism And The Recovery In Oil Boosts Risk Appetites

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 07:24:53:000

Overview: Optimism on trade talks between the US and China coupled with the biggest rally in WTI in two years (11%+) have helped keep the equity market recovery intact. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose today, the eighth time in the past ten sessions, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe i… read more...

Labor Force Participation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 05:31:20:000

About 60 years ago, British economist A.W. Phillips observed a relationship between unemployment and inflation. This is the so-named Phillips curve which has been a building block of macro-economic forecasting models and a stalwart for guiding monetary policy. The Phillips curve presumes an in… read more...

Turning Points For January 7-11

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 05:11:40:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has shifted from expansion to contraction - to determine if we've reached a "Turning Point." Leading Indicators For the fir… read more...

What's Next For The Dollar, Gold, Stocks And Bonds?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 04:56:46:000

The quip, " if you aren't confused, you aren't paying attention " needs to be replaced: " with the Fed confused, you better pay attention ." You may want to buckle up. Let me explain. It all starts with the Fed… In assessing our crystal ball for 2019, the starting point is the Federal Re... read more...

Supply And Demand Shocks, And Seasonal Adjustment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 03:52:16:000

Think that there are no such things as aggregate fluctuations generated by shifts in tastes and technologies? Think again. Look at the pattern of monthly payroll employment changes: We are more used to looking at the seasonally-adjusted pattern, which looks very, very different indeed: A… read more...

Non-Farm Payroll Beat Sparks Market, What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 02:52:00:000

What a ride the beginning of the year has been so far! As we warned in our year-end and 2019 outlook, the equity markets were most likely set up for some bottom-pickers to step in and show their support out of the gates. Show up they certainly did - after an initial two-day drubbing, the DJIA … read more...

2019 Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 02:37:42:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Short And Sharp: Peering Through The Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 17:47:45:000

By Seema Shah, Global Investment Strategist, Principal Global Investors Market volatility since the start of December has been stunning. Already fragile sentiment was undermined by negative news flow, and equity and credit markets both signal a depressing outlook for the global economy. Bu… read more...

Please Note, Unemployment Lows Go With Stock Market Tops

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 17:05:07:000

While the financial sales force likes to declare low unemployment as bullish for the economy and stocks, my partner Cory Venable offers the below chart to remind of the negative correlation between US unemployment cycles (in blue) and S&amp;P 500 price cycles (in green) since 1994. Word to the… read more...

The Last Time The Yield Curve Inverted, Stocks Soared 30%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 10:31:58:000

Everybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve. They're right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. Even a fully inverted yield curve - which is not yet - isn't saying recession is imminent. What… read more...

Jobless Claims Beat Expectations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 10:25:27:000

This week's jobless claims data is piggybacking off the strong readings from Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. Claims for the past week came in at 216K; well below last week's revised 233K. Forecasts were calling for this drop, though claims were expected to come in 10K higher at 226K. This 21… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - January 10, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 10:15:59:000

The BCI at 243.1 is above last week's downward-revised 242.4, and remains below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 51.6. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 5.3 is below last weeks 6.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (… read more...

Equity Bounce Stalls While The Greenback Steadies At Lower Levels

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 09:45:19:000

Overview: Equities, bonds and the dollar are consolidating the moves seen earlier this week. This means equities are trading heavy and bonds firmer. The euro is paring gains that carried it to its best level (~$1.1570) since mid-October. After stalling near JPY109 in the last two sessions, t… read more...

The Game Of Thrones

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 08:33:55:000

When you play a game of thrones you win or you die. - George R.R. Martin, A Game of Thrones The U.S. and China wrapped up their first face-to-face trade negotiations since a temporary tariff truce was declared last month. The Federal Policy Group reports that some progress was made but… read more...

Euclidean Q4 2018 Letter: What Happens When Valuations Decline

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 06:53:52:000

Three months ago, we noted the market had been locked in a tight embrace of expensive and profitless companies. [1] We also stated that we believe our style of investing will distinguish itself over long periods when profitable companies are in favor and valuation multiples compress. Since… read more...

Weekly Edge: Global Growth Poised To Slow, Not Stop

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 06:20:09:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Poppe Twice a year, the World Bank releases estimates of how fast it expects the global economy to grow in the near term. In June 2018, the institution expected the global economy to grow by 3.1% in 2018. This month, it stated that the global economy… read more...

Activity-Based Recession Probability Models

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 05:55:34:000

There are two broad classes of models that produce recession probabilities: those that are based on activity variables, and those that use indicator variables to generate forecast information. This article discusses the former category: models that are based on activity variables, whic… read more...

Let's Not Kid Ourselves... The Market Will Remain Under Pressure

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 14:26:14:000

High profile market watchers have pointed out there have only been four times in the last nine decades when back-to-back calendar year stock declines occurred. The years? 1929-1932, 1939-1941, 1973-1974, and 2000-2002. This could be encouraging news for stock enthusiasts were it not for the … read more...

The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - January 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 13:45:55:000

Note: The previous monthly update can be seen in the December 10 article titled, " The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - December 2018 . " There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of a recession. While I dont agree with the methodol… read more...

Irrational Fear... And A Strong Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 11:56:53:000

It goes without saying, that fear of losing has been the consensus emotion for the past 3 months. That much is obvious, and since what is obvious, is obviously wrong, we conclude that it is wrong to be this scared. The emotional accident that was the great recession continues to animate itself… read more...

These 3 Events Will Create A Perfect Storm For Europe In Early 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 10:49:10:000

Last week my British friend Jim Mellon sent me a fascinating article with an alarming title: "News from Euroland-Recession Imminent." Now, I am not one who falls prey to click-bait headlines (nor is Jim). And I'm also well aware that Europe's economy is weakening . I would not have said rec… read more...

Wallstreet: 'Be The Dip... I Mean Buy The Dip'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 09:37:26:000

Read more … read more...

Too Much Pessimism On U.S. Economic Outlook?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 09:13:33:000

The debate on the U.S. economic outlook has intensified over the last few weeks, with many commentators calling for a recession in 2019. Indeed, many economic indicators have recently pointed to a deceleration of economic activity, with the government shutdown that could accelerate the trend. … read more...

The Gods Of The Copybook Headings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 08:26:24:000

The greatest market threats for 2019 are mostly political ones: The Democrats trying to impeach President Trump and causing market havoc. The Fed keeps on raising interest rates and the American economy grinds to a halt. A "Hard Brexit." "Brexit" leading to an implosion in the Britis… read more...

Equities Continue Recovery, Greenback Remains Heavy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 07:22:41:000

Overview: Global equities have extended the New Year rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced for the fifth consecutive session and the 10th in the past 11. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is rising for the second consecutive session, something it has managed to do only one other time i… read more...

The State Of The Economy And The Federal Reserve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 05:58:22:000

The state of the US economy still remains good but not great. The Federal Reserve is sticking with its expectation that the annual growth rate will come out at 3.0 percent. The economy is running around full capacity and the unemployment rate remains near a fifty-year low. Growth seems t… read more...

Expected Equity Market Returns For The Next 10 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 05:57:09:000

What will equity returns be for the next 10 years? "In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine." - Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing. The above quote is both profound and mystifying. Profound in the sense that short-term m… read more...

Irrational Exuberance Comes With Payback Phase Baked In

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 17:23:55:000

Years of undisciplined monetary and fiscal policy have enabled the worst financial habits and highest debt abuse the world has ever known, and the payback period is now weighing on the world economy and asset prices. International Monetary Fund executives are warning that the world is unpre… read more...

S&P 500: Is This The 4-Year Cycle Low?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 17:09:24:000

We wrote an article in December last concerning the S&amp;P 500 and stated in that piece that we had gotten our cycle count wrong. Since the 24th of December, the market has now nearly tacked on 200 handles. Considering the holidays and such, that is almost a 9% move in around two weeks. These… read more...

Ranking The Current U.S. Stock Market Drawdown Vs. History

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 17:09:14:000

It's anyone's guess if the recent rebound in US equities will soon push the S&amp;P 500 Index to a new high. What we do know is that the market has staged a solid bounce so far. For the eight trading days since Christmas Eve's close, when the S&amp;P's current drawdown hit bottom, the index is… read more...

Technically Speaking: Return Of The Bull Or Dead Cat Bounce

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 16:27:10:000

"No animals were harmed during the writing of this article." If you listen to the media, the shocking and totally unexpected downturn last was unable to be foreseen by anyone. Thankfully, it's now over and we can get back to the roaring bull market. Or can we? Mark Hulbert wrote an int… read more...

Improvement, Sweet Improvement

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 14:56:31:000

For the first time since September, the broad U.S. equity market is showing signs of returning to a normal state of health. It has been a wild and crazy few months, but finally, things are shaping up for the bulls to regain control of the short-term trend. Today, we'll look at the increasing w… read more...

Did The Fed Just End The Bear Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 14:52:34:000

Source: imgflip.com The Fed Just Put An End To The Bear Market The S&amp;P 500/SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY ) dipped into official bear market territory late last year, declining by as much as 20.2% at one point. However, this may turn out to be the shortest-lived b… read more...

Has Apple Cleared The Deck For S&P 500 Earnings?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 14:36:58:000

Earnings start this week, but the week following, Jan. 14 through Jan. 18, is when we see a whole plethora of financial services companies kick off the season. With the decline in the S&amp;P 500 in fourth quarter 2018, the big question is "will 2019 S&amp;P 500 earnings estimates hold up?" … read more...

2019: The Economy In The Year Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 13:14:00:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA, Executive Vice President, Global Head of Research As the glow from the 2018 tax cuts fades in the U.S. in 2019, we expect the growth outlook to soften a bit from last years pace. Through Q3, real GDP was averaging +3.3%, and while forecasts for how econom… read more...

The Trade War Is Not Over, And It Could Last For Years To Come

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 12:14:57:000

Several days ago, a Seeking Alpha article was published titled The Trade War Is Over, We Won. The article discussed how Chinas recent poor economic data means that, as the title describes, the trade war is open and we won. Theres no denying that Chinas… read more...

'Smart Money' Buyers Are Helping The Market To Firm Up

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 10:33:03:000

Trading volume has been gradually improving, now that the holidays are over. I was encouraged that when the stock market initially sold off early Wednesday, the smart money quickly materialized and helped the overall stock market to stabilize. This smart money has been appearin… read more...

The Trade War Is Not Over, And We May Lose

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 19:01:18:000

It seems as if every single day brings a new headline about the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China. Instigated by President Donald Trump in the early days of his administration, bombastic rhetoric gradually morphed into action. Tariffs rose, businesses faltered, and Chin… read more...

Apple: Regrets, I Had A Few, And Did It My Way

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 16:22:06:000

(This article was written on Thursday, January 3rd, after market closed) Regrets, I've had a few But then again, too few to mention I did what I had to do And saw it through without exemption I planned each charted course Each careful step along the byway And mor… read more...

Demographics Point To A Bear Market For The Next Five Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 16:05:12:000

Demographics explain everything, to paraphrase University of Toronto professor David Foot in his book, Boom, Bust &amp; Echo . On that basis, this article will make the several predictions for the market in Canada and the U.S. in the coming years. The Facts Lets st… read more...

The World's Economy Is Cooling Off (But It's Not All Bad) - Part I: United States

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 14:40:20:000

Prologue By now, it's clear that the world's economy is cooling off. Almost everywhere one looks at - there are more and more signs of weakness. In this series, we will touch upon each of the world's four largest economies, trying to figure out how bad (or good) things are. Part I, the o… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - January 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 14:30:00:000

Read more … read more...

Market Commentary - January 3, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 14:25:00:000

Read more … read more...

Losses!?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 14:19:17:000

Most people acknowledge that losses will happen regardless of the type of business venture. A light bulb manufacturer knows that two out of three hundred bulbs will break. A fruit dealer knows that two out of every one hundred apples will rot. Losses per se don't bother them; unexpected loss… read more...

Daily State Of The Markets: The Magic Words

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 12:49:03:000

Well that was fun. Don't look now fans, but after Friday's joyride to the upside, the S&amp;P 500 is up nearly 8% from its Christmas Eve low and is now down only -13.3% from the most recent high water mark. My guess is everybody is feeling a little bit better about the stock market right about… read more...

Big Trouble In Big China?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 12:26:53:000

On the opening trading day of the year, markets around the world got rocked from news of slowing economic data in China; the Dow dropped 399 points at the open. Although headline economic data has pointed lower, long-term trends for world markets will pick up for at least one major reason: The… read more...

Are We In A Secular Bull Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 11:44:21:000

Just recently, Jeff Saut from Raymond James made a very interesting statement with respect to the recent market decline. "Speaking to last week's Dow Theory sell signal, we really cannot decide to ignore it, as we did with two previous false sell signals, or honor it because we continue… read more...

The Roller Coaster December To Remember

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 15:16:39:000

Last month turned out to be a memorable one for stock market investors, but unforgettable for many of the wrong reasons. Santa Claus left more dark coal than shiny gifts, judging by the -9.2% correction last month in the S&amp;P 500 index, making it the worst December since 1931. Overall, the … read more...

The Roller Coaster December To Remember

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 15:16:39:000

Last month turned out to be a memorable one for stock market investors, but unforgettable for many of the wrong reasons. Santa Claus left more dark coal than shiny gifts, judging by the -9.2% correction last month in the S&amp;P 500 index, making it the worst December since 1931. Overall, the … read more...

Trend-Cycle Or Payrolls?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 13:53:25:000

On Friday, February 2, 2001, the BLS reported stellar headline numbers for its Employment Situation release. Preliminary estimates for the Establishment Survey suggested US payrolls had gained +268k in the month of January. To put it in perspective, that would equate to +324k in today's popu… read more...

Trend-Cycle Or Payrolls?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 13:53:25:000

On Friday, February 2, 2001, the BLS reported stellar headline numbers for its Employment Situation release. Preliminary estimates for the Establishment Survey suggested US payrolls had gained +268k in the month of January. To put it in perspective, that would equate to +324k in today's popu… read more...

Perhaps The Fed Is Not Clueless

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 10:27:30:000

There has been quite a bit of criticism of current Federal Reserve policy in media and certain political circles lately. I have to admit that this article has been inspired by Mr. Cramer's semi-populist rhetoric in regards to the Federal Reserve's policy of raising interest rates, as well as P… read more...

Perhaps The Fed Is Not Clueless

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 10:27:30:000

There has been quite a bit of criticism of current Federal Reserve policy in media and certain political circles lately. I have to admit that this article has been inspired by Mr. Cramer's semi-populist rhetoric in regards to the Federal Reserve's policy of raising interest rates, as well as P… read more...

Markets Rise After Strong U.S. Jobs Growth With Fed Talking Down Rate Hikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 07:15:17:000

The US dollar had a tough first week of 2019. The greenback is lower against most major pairs as market optimism of two rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve have virtually evaporated. Mixed economic indicators and a neutral to dovish Fed Chair Powell put downward pressure on the USD. Infla… read more...

Markets Rise After Strong U.S. Jobs Growth With Fed Talking Down Rate Hikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 07:15:17:000

The US dollar had a tough first week of 2019. The greenback is lower against most major pairs as market optimism of two rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve have virtually evaporated. Mixed economic indicators and a neutral to dovish Fed Chair Powell put downward pressure on the USD. Infla… read more...

U.S. Sees Exceptional Job Growth In December

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 06:36:16:000

By Mickey D. Levy The U.S. December jobs report was exceptional with employment gains of 312,000, rising labor force participation and hours worked, and average hourly earnings growth of over 3% for the third consecutive month. The average monthly jobs growth in 2018 was 220,000 compared… read more...

U.S. Sees Exceptional Job Growth In December

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 06:36:16:000

By Mickey D. Levy The U.S. December jobs report was exceptional with employment gains of 312,000, rising labor force participation and hours worked, and average hourly earnings growth of over 3% for the third consecutive month. The average monthly jobs growth in 2018 was 220,000 compared… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: December Nonfarm Employment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 06:17:08:000

By Jill Mislinski Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which it bases its decisions. This committee statement is about as close as it gets to identifying its method. T… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: December Nonfarm Employment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 06:17:08:000

By Jill Mislinski Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which it bases its decisions. This committee statement is about as close as it gets to identifying its method. T… read more...

What's Driving The Market Whiplash?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 05:56:28:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Mark Eibel, director, client investment strategies, and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed 2018 market performance, the ongoing volatility in markets, the U.S. jobs report for December and projections for fourth-quarter earnings season. … read more...

What's Driving The Market Whiplash?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 05:56:28:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Mark Eibel, director, client investment strategies, and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed 2018 market performance, the ongoing volatility in markets, the U.S. jobs report for December and projections for fourth-quarter earnings season. … read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: 2019 Looks To Be A Very Difficult Year To Navigate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 04:19:47:000

"Flexibility requires an open mind and a welcoming of new alternatives." - Deborah Day "You can choose between having an open mind and being a skeptic. There is no in-between." - Brownell Landrum The 2019 economic outlook is dominated by some of the same key themes of a yea… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: 2019 Looks To Be A Very Difficult Year To Navigate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 04:19:47:000

"Flexibility requires an open mind and a welcoming of new alternatives." - Deborah Day "You can choose between having an open mind and being a skeptic. There is no in-between." - Brownell Landrum The 2019 economic outlook is dominated by some of the same key themes of a yea… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of December 31-January 4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 03:23:26:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to determine if the economy has reached a "turning point." Leading Indicators Corporate… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of December 31-January 4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 03:23:26:000

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to determine if the economy has reached a "turning point." Leading Indicators Corporate… read more...

Bulls Come Crawling Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 00:43:40:000

Last week, investor sentiment took an overwhelmingly bearish tone following steep market declines on the FOMC's rate decision, Fed Chair Powell's ill-received presser, and a remarkably bad Christmas Eve trading session. This week, bulls came back albeit quietly. The rally that equities have … read more...

Bulls Come Crawling Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 00:43:40:000

Last week, investor sentiment took an overwhelmingly bearish tone following steep market declines on the FOMC's rate decision, Fed Chair Powell's ill-received presser, and a remarkably bad Christmas Eve trading session. This week, bulls came back albeit quietly. The rally that equities have … read more...

December Jobs Report Doesn't Change Negative Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 17:18:11:000

New York (January 4) - The December jobs report printed well above forecast , at 312,000 new jobs. The consensus estimate had been just 178,000. Revisions for November (+21,000) and October (+37,00 jobs) netted 58,000 more jobs. The revisions resulted in average three months job creation … read more...

Stocks Are Still Expensive And Momentum Is Negative: Be Careful Out There

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 14:13:57:000

Successful investing does not need to be too complex or sophisticated. At the end of the day, it all comes down to relying on time-proven return drivers to make investment decisions based on solid statistical evidence as opposed to emotions and speculation. We can basically analyze the marke… read more...

Worst Performing Small Cap Stocks In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 12:56:41:000

In yesterday's article on the Performance of Factor Tilts: December 2018 , I noted the small-cap stocks had produced their worst monthly performance since January 2009. Through the end of August, the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 ( IJR ) was up more than 18%, but ended the year down more than 8% for t… read more...

Best Performing Small Cap Stocks In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 12:51:00:000

Even with small-cap stocks producing their worst returns since 2008, a small contingent of small-cap stocks posted strong returns in the past year. Roughly one-third of the S&amp;P Smallcap 600 Index ( IJR ) posted positive returns with a noticeable skew to the return distribution of the far r… read more...

Addressing Income Inequality

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 12:00:10:000

The subject of income inequality makes for great election year discussion. Though not a directly prominent theme in the 2018 mid-terms, the discussion of single payer health care is wrapped in this issue. Income inequality garnered national attention during the Occupy [fill in the blank] movem…