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DMRL

DeltaShares S&P 500 Managed Risk ETF

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Summary

The investment seeks to track the investment results, before fees and expenses, of the S&P EPAC Ex. Korea LargeMidCap Managed Risk 2.0 Index. Under normal market conditions, the fund invests a substantial portion, but at least 80%, of its assets, exclusive of collateral held from securities lending, in securities comprising the underlying index. The underlying index seeks to achieve these objectives by allocating weightings among the S&P EPAC Ex. Korea LargeMidCap Index, the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 5-Year Index and the S&P U.S. Treasury Bill 0-3 Month Index. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap: 446 Million

Primary Exchange: NYSE Arca

Website:

Shares Outstanding: 7.75 Million

Float: 7.75 Million

Dividend: 0.689 (1.2%)

Beta: 0.0

Sector:

Industry:

Short Interest (): 0

Ethical Flags

Gambling

Longest drawdown: 181 trading days

From: 2018-09-20 To: 2019-06-12

Lowest Point:

Trump Might Really Be 'Crazy Like A Fox' On Trade-Fed-Market Nexus

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 12:47:19:000

On Wednesday, Bloomberg ran an article featuring a handful of soundbites from Chen Zhao, co-founder of Montreal-based Alpine Macro and a former co-director of macro research at Brandywine Global Investment Management. You can read the piece for yourself, but the gist of it is that Zhao be… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings - Which Sector's Growth Rates Have Seen Less Downward Pressure For Q2 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 04:00:00:000

First, let's get to the S&P 500 Earnings metrics missed this weekend: Fwd 4-qtr est: $171.52 vs. $171.47 PE ratio: 16.7x PEG ratio: 3.63x S&P 500 earnings yld: 5.97% vs. last week's 6.23% Y/y growth of Fwd est: +4.7% vs. last week's +4.66% (Source: earnings data from IB… read more...

Reappearance Of 'Crash Phobia' Is Good News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-12 10:35:53:000

There are many signs that astute investors look for to confirm that a bottom has been made after a market decline. One of the most important signs is the tell-tale increase in investor pessimism as measured by various sentiment polls. But an even more reliable indication that the market is pri… read more...

Don't Be A Hero

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 10:16:38:000

The "indefinite suspension" of tariffs on Mexico notwithstanding, trade tensions have not abated in earnest. Risk assets were obviously on the front foot Monday thanks in part to President Trump's decision not to pull the tariff trigger on America's southern neighbor and, naturally, the risk… read more...

Technically Speaking: The 'Sellable Rally' Chart Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 04:23:25:000

Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a " sellable rally " following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit : "This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term 'sellable' rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The markets o… read more...

S&P Nears Completion Of Third Lévy Flight Event Of 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 02:32:11:000

It's a sign of just how volatile the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) has become in recent weeks that we're using the phrase "Lvy flight events" to describe the recent changes in the level of stock prices. If you're new to the kind of analysis we do, a Lvy flight is simply describ… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - June 10, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 02:15:00:000

Read more … read more...

Here Is Why The Fed's Rate Cuts Won't Have The Desired Effect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 17:56:22:000

On Tuesday, the Fed hinted that it was ready to take action if the US economy started showing signs of weakness. The market cheered and rallied, and we are now only 2% away from all-time highs (as of the time of writing this article). The stock market now expects at least one rate cut, while t… read more...

Top 10 S&P 500 Market Cap Weights - How Have 2019 EPS Estimates Changed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 06:48:34:000

Since the S&P 500 peaked in late September 2018, the goal of the attached spreadsheet was to give readers a feel for the change in the EPS estimates for 2019, relative to the market action and change in the S&P 500's return. The fascinating metric for me is that the top 10 S&P 50… read more...

Market Commentary - June 6, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 04:45:00:000

Read more … read more...

The Powell Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 04:25:16:000

By Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income Was last week's bounce for risk assets a mere taste of what's to come if the Fed cuts rates this year? One of my research colleagues came into the office looking a little starstruck last week. He'd just snapped a photo of Federal Re… read more...

E-Mini 500 S&P: Is This A Bull Or Bear Trap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-10 02:01:31:000

In our last report published on Seeking Alpha, the sell 2 (S2) level for the E-mini S&P 500 was at 2872. The market was at 2830. The market continued the uptrend and reached a high of 2886.25. Our anticipated target last week was 2872. The weekly range was 2812-2872. The Variable Changin… read more...

Clear And Present Danger

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 07:19:36:000

On Friday evening, the Trump administration announced that planned tariffs on all imports from Mexico are "suspended indefinitely". After the president called off the tariffs, the State department posted a joint declaration on its website outlining a series of commitments. The New York Tim… read more...

Futures Forecasts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 04:26:55:000

Torsten Slok at DB updates this lovely graph on occasion. Here's what it means. Fed fund futures are essentially bets on where the federal funds rate will be at various points in the future. Thus, you can read from the dashed lines the market's guess about where the federal funds rate will go … read more...

Should Markets Heed Recession Warnings?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 02:46:36:000

By Edward Perks, E xecutive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions Amid a renewed US-China trade spat and additional tariff tensions between the United States and Mexico, investor concerns about a possible recession have heightened, accord… read more...

What's Behind The Historic Valuation Gap In Equities?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 02:06:35:000

By Carmel Corbett Wellso As sectors ranging from manufacturing to financials experience disruption, the valuation gap between growth and value stocks continues to widen. Director of Research Carmel Wellso explains why careful stock selection is important at this stage of the cycle. … read more...

Sorry Permabulls, It's Not Different This Time - Got Gold?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 01:46:22:000

An inverted yield curve has historically been the most accurate indicator of an impending or concurrent recession. The inversion during late 2006 and most of 2007 is a good example. Studies have shown that curve inversions precede a recession anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. I would argue th… read more...

Recession Anxieties, June 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 13:55:23:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on June 7, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . Different forward looking models show increasing likelihood of a recession. Most recent readings of key series highlighted by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) suggest a peak, altho… read more...

Welcome To The Decade Of Slow Economic Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-08 12:52:29:000

The world economy has grown tremendously in the last 100 years driven by multiple factors such as population growth, technological advancements and rapid urbanization, not to mention a healthy dose of inflation (with exceptions) throughout the time. We expect the global economic growth to slow… read more...

The S&P 500 Seems To Be In Denial

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 06:23:39:000

Investment Thesis I wrote a short article on the S&P 500 ( SPY ) a couple of months ago. While it seems I was early, we did see the market decline during the month of May before recovering recently. One could certainly make the argument that the equity market got ahead of itself during… read more...

Two Yield Spreads Are Better Than One For Business Cycle Analysis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 04:16:44:000

The US recession warnings are flying every which way lately in the wake of an inverted yield curve. The spread on the 10-year less 3-month yields, in particular, has unleashed a wave of predictions that a new downturn is near. But some analysts point out that another widely followed spread - 1… read more...

Tariffs And Labor Remain Major Issues According To Purchasing Managers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 03:30:07:000

By Robert Hughes Surveys of purchasing managers from the Institute for Supply Management suggest support for continued economic expansion but also highlight concerns over trade policy and tariffs, as well as ongoing difficulty in filling open jobs. On balance, the results are positive but … read more...

Weekly Edge: Investors Buy The Dip

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-07 02:30:56:000

Originally published on June 5, 2019 By Ansh Chaudhary The Dow rallied over 500 points on Tuesday (6/4) and has continued that rally as of Wednesday morning. This comes after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the Fed would "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion," i… read more...

Bills, Beige, And The Consequences Of The Disappeared Labor Shortage

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 22:28:38:000

Early last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ((BLS)) reported that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to just 3.6%. It was the lowest in half a century, seemingly an amazing feat for the most puzzling boom ever conceived. Everyone says it is going gangbusters, but is eve… read more...

Bearish Sentiment Still On The Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 22:01:08:000

Sentiment on the part of individual investors in the weekly survey from AAII has been reflecting equity weakness throughout May, and this week was once again no exception. Despite the rally over the past two sessions, declines Monday and at the end of last week have dragged bullish sentime… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up Another 3K

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 21:43:36:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending June 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 215,00… read more...

The Age Of Worry: Investor Sentiment Takes A Hit

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 04:26:45:000

By Liz Ann Sonders Although trade remains top of mind for markets, my prior bi-weekly report was a comprehensive look at that topic (albeit before the latest Mexico salvo); so I'll tackle a related topic today, which is how investor sentiment has fared through the latest market volatility … read more...

Median Household Income In April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 02:27:03:000

Median household income in the United States rose to a new nominal record high of $64,016 in April 2019, a 0.9% increase from Sentier Research's March 2019 estimate of $63,425 . The following chart shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in… read more...

Average Duration Of Unemployment In The U.S.: Still High By Historical Comparatives

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 01:20:16:000

Remember my "scary chart" from the day back? The one plotting the persistently high - relative to the business cycle - duration of unemployment in the U.S.? I have not updated this chart for some years now. So, here is a new version based on the latest data: Two things worth noting: De… read more...

What The Trade Dispute With Mexico And China Means For Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-06 00:25:14:000

Originally published on June 2, 2019 The market has been rocked over the past 3 weeks. Now that President Trump announced that trade tariffs will be imposed on Mexico, is more red ink in store? Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read… read more...

'Act Accordingly'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 13:20:44:000

Jerome Powell didn't pull a Jim Bullard on Tuesday. That is, Powell didn't explicitly say a rate cut "may be warranted soon," as Bullard did on Monday. But Jay didn't push back against market expectations for cuts (top pane in the visual) either. Rather, he went with "We will act as appr… read more...

These 3 Major Stock Bear Markets Are Still Roaring

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 02:24:38:000

The 2018-2019 stock bear market is still roaring among several major indices. It has broken all the market's FAANGs and still shows no signs of backing off. The New York Stock Exchange Composite bear market One of the broadest indices for the US stock market, the NYSE, entered a bear marke… read more...

S&P Completes Second Lévy Flight Event Of 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 02:02:30:000

In closing the week at a value of 2,752.06 on Friday, 31 May 2019, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) completed its second Lvy flight event of 2019. Unlike the year's first Lvy flight event back in January, which was a positive affair, the second Lvy flight for the S&P … read more...

Weekly Market Notes - June 3, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 22:15:00:000

Read more … read more...

Market Update: Key Month Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 16:41:32:000

By OpenMarkets Following the first negative month of the year for equity indexes, the focus remains on trade tensions. Jack Bouroudjian explains why June is a critical expiration period, and covers why the spread between the U.S. yield curve and German bund Read more … read more...

This Is Not The Time For Tech To Crumble

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 14:09:52:000

I'd say I could think of worse developments for a fragile market at a critical juncture than sweeping antitrust inquiries into some of the most important companies in America, but that wouldn't be entirely true. To be clear, it's been obvious for at least 14 months (i.e., since last March, w… read more...

This Is Not The Time For Tech To Crumble

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 14:09:52:000

I'd say I could think of worse developments for a fragile market at a critical juncture than sweeping antitrust inquiries into some of the most important companies in America, but that wouldn't be entirely true. To be clear, it's been obvious for at least 14 months (i.e., since last March, w… read more...

Market Commentary - May 30, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 03:25:00:000

Read more … read more...

Market Commentary - May 30, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 03:25:00:000

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What If The Next Bounce Falls Short?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 01:38:05:000

Until early 2018, the market had been behaving in a consistent pattern for several years. Corrections were short-lived, as were spikes in implied volatility-as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (the VIX)-from otherwise suppressed levels. While the correction in Q4 2018 was longer-lived, we… read more...

What If The Next Bounce Falls Short?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 01:38:05:000

Until early 2018, the market had been behaving in a consistent pattern for several years. Corrections were short-lived, as were spikes in implied volatility-as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (the VIX)-from otherwise suppressed levels. While the correction in Q4 2018 was longer-lived, we… read more...

These Are The Bad Times

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 10:17:45:000

These are the bad times. I opened a May 23 post with those five words and they seem even more apt now than they did a week ago. The linked post documented the fallout in Chinese markets from allegedly imminent US action against a bevy of surveillance companies including Hikvision and Dah… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Update: How Have 2019 Sector Growth Rates Changed In Last 8 Weeks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 07:42:54:000

"Worst Week for Stock Markets since Christmas" (presumably Christmas '18). The headline is a Bloomberg quote caught while prepping the weekly S&P 500 earnings update, Saturday morning, June 1st. From a sentiment perspective, it does now seem like absolutely no one is bullish. These… read more...

Adaptive Price Modeling Suggests Big Rotation In U.S. Dow Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-02 06:44:37:000

I have been pouring over the longer-term charts as we've started to see oil and gold move in directions that would indicate increased fear throughout the global markets while a contraction in economic activity/oil prices appears to be setting up for another big move. The objective is to attemp… read more...

There Are Some Positive Data Points

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 13:24:24:000

It seems much of the news being reported on the market and the economy lately is falling in the negative category. With both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index down a little over 5% in the month of May, and with only one trading day remaining, highlighting the neg… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - May 31, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 11:51:44:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. The market took another hit this week. May was a bad month for investors. A look at the data might help put things in perspective. Chart of the Week - The Dreaded "Death Cross" Let me stipulate upfront that I am NOT call… read more...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 11:21:09:000

By Jill Mislinski This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 145.3, down 0.5 from the previous week. Year over year, the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.71%, up slightly from last week. The WLI Growth indi… read more...

Monthly Macro Monitor: Economic Reports

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 10:18:45:000

Is a recession coming? Well, yeah, of course it is, but whether it is now, six months from now or 2 years from now or even longer is impossible to say right now. Our Jeff Snider has been dutifully documenting all the negativity reflected in the bond and money markets and he is certainly right … read more...

Tariff Man Strikes Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 07:10:43:000

A little tariff here, a little tariff there, and before you know it, it adds up to a whole lot. We read a contributor last year who argued the trade war was irrelevant to the market, but it seems to have taken a new toll. Since May 5, when President Trump tweeted he was hiking tariffs to 25%… read more...

Monthly S&P 500 Outlook For June 2019: The Tails Have Gotten Fatter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-01 03:01:33:000

But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one. - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional stock… read more...

Initial Claims Remain Very Low; Minor Revisions To First-Quarter GDP

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 03:53:42:000

By Robert Hughes Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending May 25 rose 3,000 to 215,000. The four-week average came in at 216,750 versus 220,500 in the prior week. The four-week average has been below 230,000 since February 2018, a very strong performance. By his… read more...

Why You Should Only Buy China Through The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 03:43:29:000

Last weeks article by Jason Zweig (see Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks ) caught my eye, because it warns against investing in Chinese stocks with the expectation of high GDP growth driving high equity returns. A major reason investors allocate to emerging economie… read more...

U.S. Q2 GDP Growth Outlook Continues To Slide

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 03:18:13:000

US economic growth remains on track for substantially slower growth in the second quarter vs. Q1, based on a set of nowcasts. Although the current estimates suggest that the economy will avoid a recession in the immediate future, output for the April through June period appears to be at risk o… read more...

Truck Tonnage Looks Quite Bullish

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 02:28:55:000

I've been tracking truck tonnage for a long time , and it's been a reliable - and generally bullish - indicator of underlying economic activity. It measures the actual tonnage of freight hauled by the nation's carriers, and this physical measure of the economy's size has also tracked the gain… read more...

Sell In May And Go Away

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 02:15:00:000

Now that the Memorial Day holiday weekend has come and gone, and the end of May will come to an end on Friday, the old adage for the stock market, "sell in May and go away," could have special meaning in 2019. A relaxing summer without excessive risk could be a good idea considering all of t… read more...

On The Myth Of Deflationary Recessions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-31 01:07:03:000

Are deflationary recessions real? Most investors seem to think so, but if you look at consumer price levels during periods of recession since after the great depression, its not so clear. A deeper look at the end numbers shows that deflationary recessions are not very deflationary at a… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 3K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 22:34:04:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 … read more...

Technically Speaking: Rothschild's Investing Rule

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 04:15:39:000

Since the markets were closed yesterday for Memorial Day, there isn't much for us to update technically from this past weekend's missive. However, I did provide an update yesterday for our RIAPRO subscribers with respect to where the S&P 500 is currently trading and why we expect a sho… read more...

Technically Speaking: Rothschild's Investing Rule

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 04:15:39:000

Since the markets were closed yesterday for Memorial Day, there isn't much for us to update technically from this past weekend's missive. However, I did provide an update yesterday for our RIAPRO subscribers with respect to where the S&P 500 is currently trading and why we expect a sho… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - May 28, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 23:53:00:000

Read more … read more...

Weekly Market Notes - May 28, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 23:53:00:000

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Falling Stocks And Mixed Signals: Sentiment Softening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 21:42:21:000

On April 1, 2019, my article entitled " Falling U.S. Rates And The Stock Market " went live on Seeking Alpha. I identified falling U.S. rates relative to Japanese interest rates; effectively a shift in sentiment whereby the U.S. was becoming less attractive from a forex currency and carry-tr… read more...

Falling Stocks And Mixed Signals: Sentiment Softening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 21:42:21:000

On April 1, 2019, my article entitled " Falling U.S. Rates And The Stock Market " went live on Seeking Alpha. I identified falling U.S. rates relative to Japanese interest rates; effectively a shift in sentiment whereby the U.S. was becoming less attractive from a forex currency and carry-tr… read more...

McCullough: Our GDP Tracker Is Below Consensus

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 11:05:04:000

Our proprietary U.S. GDP nowcast is lower than consensus. New economic data coming in continues to confirm our forecast. As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in the video below from The Macro Show , Q3 of 2019 is looking to move more squarely into Quad 4 (growth and in… read more...

Thoughts On 3 Front-Burner Topics

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 08:03:51:000

Tuesday morning was relatively quiet as the US came back online after the holiday, so I thought I'd take a minute to jot down a few observations for folks on this platform who might have missed the longer discussions over on my site this past weekend. As usual, I'm not going to recap the fu… read more...

Volatile Shifts In Forward-Looking Focus For S&P 500 Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 01:10:04:000

Global financial markets experienced something of a " volatile shift " on Thursday, May 23, 2019, sending bond yields falling as the yield of the 10-Year Treasury dropped below the yield of the 3-Month Treasury as the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve suddenly expanded. For the S&… read more...

The Trade War Resumes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 23:08:53:000

Donald Trump, on May 5, suddenly revealed that a trade agreement with China was not imminent after all. To the contrary, the Administration, on May 10, raised its earlier 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25%, and threatened to extend 25% tariffs to the remainder of impor… read more...

Too Soon To Look At 2020 S&P 500 EPS Growth ?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 04:34:34:000

We are just 7 months from the calendar rolling into 2020. The first EPS estimate for 2020 was actually published by I/B/E/S by Refinitiv in early April '18, but the sector growth rates don't start to get tracked until the quarter falls within the "forward 4-quarter" estimate. Thus, for now, … read more...

Stocks Hit Another Roadblock - Trade Weighs On Equities And Volatility Rises

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-27 03:00:00:000

Here we go again in the stock market. After reaching a record high in early October 2018, the stock market correction took all of the leading equity indices appreciably lower throughout the fourth quarter of last year. In late December, when stocks were looking their ugliest, the market turned… read more...

U.S.-China Trade Tensions Rattle Markets Again. Is This Time Different?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-26 08:48:23:000

On a special podcast edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed the escalating U.S.-China trade war, flash Purchasing Managers' Index ((PMI)) numbers for May and the potential for changes to monetary policy in Au… read more...

What Could Move The Markets Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-26 05:18:12:000

Markets are not too expensive, or too cheap. As Russ explains, that offers a clue into what could cause the next move. Stock markets have been more wobbly of late. While the proximate cause was an unexpected deterioration (collapse?) in trade talks with China, many investors were getting n… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings: S&P 500 Earnings Yield Back Above 6%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-26 01:19:56:000

The S&P 500 earnings yield was 6.05% as of Friday's close, and the 2nd week in a row where the key benchmark's earnings yield was above 6%. There was a string of 22 consecutive weeks from October 5th, 2018 to February 22nd, 2019, where every week the S&P 500 earnings yield was above … read more...

Market Volatility: When Defense Can Be The Best Offense

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-25 12:25:32:000

By Catherine Yoshimoto, director, product management It would be tough to argue that low market volatility hasn't had a good run. But between the selloff at the end of last year and the more recent turbulence triggered by trade war concerns, it would appear we could be nearing the end of t… read more...

Durable Goods And 1998

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-25 11:13:26:000

We have arrived at revisions season once again. It's that time of year when many if not most (I don't actually keep track) of economic accounts undergo heightened scrutiny. More data is collected from more comprehensive surveys using far larger samples. These are compared to the existing high … read more...

S&P 500: 2016 All Over Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 07:32:49:000

Just four weeks ago, I discussed that things were getting a little frothy in my article "S&P-500: Sentiment Getting Complacent," and discussed that it wasn't an ideal time to be starting new positions. Bullish sentiment was through the roof, less experienced traders were pressing their… read more...

Short And Sharp: The Technology Cold War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 03:21:29:000

With the U.S. intensifying its battle via restrictions on exports of technology to China, the trade war is increasingly showing signs of becoming a tech war. Broad market reaction to the latest developments has been surprisingly subdued. Maybe investors believe the impact will be isolated to j… read more...

New Low For Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-23 23:51:48:000

Trade headlines have continued to have a negative impact on stock prices and, in turn sentiment levels, over the past week. The AAII investor sentiment survey saw bullish sentiment decline sharply once again this week, falling to 24.71% compared to 29.82% last week. To think that just two … read more...

Market Update: Sovereign Wealth Funds And Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 04:13:36:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian explains how sovereign wealth funds are affecting recent market volatility. The top ten funds represent $10 trillion in global market value, and the re-weighting of the MSCI Index could have major implications. "Today, the funds are playing a large ro… read more...

Market Update: Sovereign Wealth Funds And Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 04:13:36:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian explains how sovereign wealth funds are affecting recent market volatility. The top ten funds represent $10 trillion in global market value, and the re-weighting of the MSCI Index could have major implications. "Today, the funds are playing a large ro… read more...

Finally, Some Positive Trade News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 04:09:20:000

Toward the end of a week during which global markets were pummeled by a sudden worsening in the prospects for a trade agreement between China and the US, President Trump announced two positive developments in US trade relations with our allies. The first was a decision to defer for six months … read more...

Finally, Some Positive Trade News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 04:09:20:000

Toward the end of a week during which global markets were pummeled by a sudden worsening in the prospects for a trade agreement between China and the US, President Trump announced two positive developments in US trade relations with our allies. The first was a decision to defer for six months … read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report: 21 May 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 03:17:03:000

Recent economic data is clouding the outlook for the US macro trend. Although a recession hasn't started and isn't likely to begin in the immediate future, several key indicators suggest that output is slowing and so uncertainty is rising for the second half of the year. Notably, industrial … read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report: 21 May 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 03:17:03:000

Recent economic data is clouding the outlook for the US macro trend. Although a recession hasn't started and isn't likely to begin in the immediate future, several key indicators suggest that output is slowing and so uncertainty is rising for the second half of the year. Notably, industrial … read more...

First-Quarter Sales And Earnings Delivered Positive Surprises

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 03:09:24:000

First-quarter announcement season is now more than 90% complete, and I am happy to report that the S&P 500s sales are up 5.9% and earnings are up 2.2%, which is a stunning surprise, since the analyst community had predicted negative earnings growth and 4% sales growth. Accelerating… read more...

First-Quarter Sales And Earnings Delivered Positive Surprises

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 03:09:24:000

First-quarter announcement season is now more than 90% complete, and I am happy to report that the S&P 500s sales are up 5.9% and earnings are up 2.2%, which is a stunning surprise, since the analyst community had predicted negative earnings growth and 4% sales growth. Accelerating… read more...

Spring 2019 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 01:21:15:000

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings. The earnings outlook for the S&P 500 through the end of … read more...

Spring 2019 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-22 01:21:15:000

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings. The earnings outlook for the S&P 500 through the end of … read more...

Weekly Market Notes - May 20, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 22:20:00:000

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Don't Sell The Bull And Don't Buy The Bear

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 21:40:54:000

It is a reality of all markets, whether bull or bear, that corrections happen. If one is to follow the rule of thumb that says " Don't sell the bull, and don't buy the bear ", it is of paramount importance to have a way of determining when the market is experiencing a correction within an on… read more...

S&P 500 Goes On Volatile Ride With Fed Rate Cut Timing At Stake

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 20:29:11:000

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) experienced an interesting level of volatility during the third week of May 2019 as investors shifted how far forward in time they're looking into the future twice during the week. We consider an "interesting level of volatility" as being whenever the closing d… read more...

The Crowd's Chances Are Slim

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 05:51:43:000

Introduction Ever pick up one of the countless "Do It Yourself" investing books off the shelf and come across an intro similar to this? Here's a fact. The average fund underperforms "buy and hold". The average professional trader does no better than "buy and hold". Source: Bu… read more...

Volatility Returns To Stocks - Paradise For Traders, A Nightmare For Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 02:00:00:000

The memories of the stock market correction that took place during the fourth quarter of 2018 had just about faded into the market's rearview mirror as the indices reached new all-time highs in late April. It took four months for the stock market to make back all of its losses, and the price a… read more...

A Tail Risk The Fed Can't Solve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 11:09:46:000

In the latest edition of Bank of America's closely-watched Global Fund Manager survey, the number one tail risk is "trade war". "That's no surprise given the survey was taken May 3rd-9th, but trade war concerns are well below levels seen last summer," the bank's Michael Hartnett wrote this w… read more...

The Bulls Are Betting On A 'Long Shot'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 09:25:49:000

Market Review & Update Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. Then, the White House reignited the "trade war" with Chin… read more...

S&P 500 Has Experienced 'PE Compression' The Last 16 Months - What Now?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 09:12:54:000

This blog post on the credit markets on May 5th gave the first reference to the S&P 500 being flat over the last 18 months. Let's flush out the numbers a little further: 1/26/18 high tick: 2,872.87 9/21/18 high tick: 2.940.91 5/1/19 high tick: 2,954.13 5/… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings: 2nd Consecutive Week Of 2019 And 2020 Estimate Improvement

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-19 06:10:19:000

Despite the market volatility this week, with the S&P 500 falling 2.4% on Monday, May 13th, after President Trump's China tariff tweet, the 2019 and 2020 "bottom-up" EPS estimate "rate of change" again improved, for the second consecutive week. Here is what the data looks like: As read… read more...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 10:39:17:000

By Jill Mislinski This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 146.7, down 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year, the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.84%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator i… read more...

Filling A Giant Hole: March Inventories And The Fed's GDPNow

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 06:12:01:000

The First Law of Holes I think they stopped digging. Chris Wimbush "When you are in a hole, stop digging ." - The First Law of Holes In reviewing the Q1 GDP report, it boiled down to some startling numbers: In real dollars, the US economy grew by $100 billion from July t… read more...

Technically Speaking For May 13-17; This Rally Looks Like A Head-Fake

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 13:55:06:000

International Economic Data of Note China/Japan/Australia Japan LEI: 96.3; CEI 99.6: these have trended lower over the last 12 months Exports -.8% M/M China Service sector growth 7.4% Industrial Production +5.4% Retail sales +7.2% Fixed Asset Investment … read more...

Huawei Broadside May Be Market's 'Crossing The Rubicon' Moment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 12:37:47:000

US stocks logged their biggest three-day gain in months through Thursday, thanks in no small part to the monetization of hedges and profit-taking on long vol. trades. But if you're searching for evidence of lingering trade jitters, look no further than the following visual. (Heisenberg, c… read more...

Tribeca Trade Group Weekend Newsletter May 12, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-17 02:50:00:000

Editors Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 16K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 23:35:12:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,000… read more...

Back To Bearish

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 23:22:15:000

Tariff headlines have taken a front seat in the past couple of weeks, leading stocks to see their worst declines of the year. Not surprisingly, sentiment has begun to reflect price action. One week after coming in at its highest level since October (around the time the S&P 500 hit its prev… read more...

2yr/10yr Spread Not A Strong Indicator Of Economic Concerns On Its Own

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 16:42:10:000

Amid rising concerns over both US and global economic conditions lately, there are several macroeconomic indicators that investors track in order to make well-informed investment decisions. Understanding the statistical relationships between such economic indicators and S&P 500 performance… read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Equity Market Report May 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 00:10:00:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

S&P 500 Stocks Are More Successful Domestically Than In Foreign Operations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 11:11:48:000

The S&P 500 is a little different from the other major stock indices around the world. For example, fully 75% of the revenues of companies in the FTSE100 come from outside the UK. This explains the inverse relationship of the index to the sterling exchange rate. A falling pound leads to fo… read more...

Triggered By Tariffs, Shifting Expectations Send S&P 500 Sinking

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 02:35:34:000

It doesn't happen often, but sometimes we find ourselves almost perfectly situated to capture two snapshots in time for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ). We presented the first snapshot in time early in the morning of Monday, May 13, 2019, where we summed up what had happened to the S&P 50… read more...

U.S. GDP Growth Is Expected To Slow In The Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 00:45:47:000

The escalating US-China trade conflict is a wild card with unknown economic consequences. But even before factoring in this risk, the US economy is expected to post slower growth in the second quarter, based on a set of recent nowcasts. Output in Q2 is on track to decelerate to 2.1% via th… read more...

Talking Tariffs: New Tolls Threaten To Further Strain U.S.-China Relations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 00:16:12:000

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on May 13, 2019, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Consumer spending could suffer as companies try to pass on price increases Last week took investors on a roller coaster ride. The climax came at the stro… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - May 13, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 23:10:00:000

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The Lather, Rinse And Repeat Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 17:06:03:000

One of the most salient features of the 10-year-old bull market has been the recurrence of a pattern weve all seen many, many times. Basically, the pattern involves the sudden appearance of an unsettling headline event which takes investors off guard. This is followed by a sharp declin… read more...

War-Weary Markets And How To Sustain A Bounce

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 14:10:34:000

"It is a mistake to give in to the notion that emotions were soothed by 'comforting' words about optimism on the ultimate resolution of the trade disagreement", former trader Richard Breslow wrote on Tuesday morning, in his daily column, adding that it's equally misguided to "indulge in playin… read more...

Valuations, Returns And The Real Value Of Cash

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 05:55:37:000

Since the beginning of 2019, the market has risen sharply. That increase was not due to rising earnings and revenues, which have weakened, but rather from multiple expansion. In other words, investors are willing to pay higher prices for weaker earnings. The issue, of course, is that while i… read more...

Lessons On Low Market Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 02:31:33:000

A selloff in risk assets last week - driven by fading expectations for a U.S.-China trade deal - has shattered the calm after a prolonged period of low market volatility in 2019. We remain cautiously pro-risk, but see potential for further bouts of volatility in this late-cycle period. This ar… read more...

S&P 500 Knocked About By Noisy U.S.-China Trade Negotiations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 03:52:45:000

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) set no new records during the week of trading ending on Friday, May 10, 2019, where stock prices mostly appeared to react to the noise generated by trade negotiations between the United States and China. Overall, the index stayed within the typical range of v… read more...

Tariffied

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 00:55:06:000

By Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income Is the U.S.-China deal dead, and how bad might this get for risk assets? While our confidence that the U.S. and China would find a way to agree on trade has been growing , we always maintained that a failure to do so was the only g… read more...

Market Commentary - May 9, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 00:20:00:000

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Implications Of An All-Out Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 12:19:04:000

"They do have a dual mandate, Larry. They do have a dual mandate." That's what CNBC's David Faber told Larry Kudlow on April 26, after the advance read on Q1 GDP showed the US economy growing at a 3.2% clip in the first quarter. That friendly reminder from Faber was necessary because i… read more...

U.S. Producer Inflation Numbers Say The Fed Is Not Going To Raise Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 10:47:49:000

As with IHS Markit and their estimations of Federal Reserve policy in the near future, we can't see any great evidence of a coming significant rise in interest rates nor a change in policy nor forward guidance. Moody's Analytics looks at an entirely different measure to come to much the same… read more...

Dollar Correction May Continue, But S&P 500 Posts Key Upside Reversal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 09:46:48:000

In the wake of the May 5 tweets that signaled the end of the tariff truce, the dollar was mixed, with a heavier bias. The strongest currencies were the Japanese yen (~1.0%) and Swiss franc (~0.45%). The Dollar Index fell about 0.2%. The major currencies that failed to gain against the dollar… read more...

Is The S&P 500 Experiencing A Secular Bull Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 09:05:02:000

Well, in a word, "yes" which should surprise no one. Back in the early 2000s, while writing for TheStreet, there was a fellow contributor by the name of Jordan Kahn, out of LA (Kahn Asset Management), who I thought was a good writer and investor. Jordan's framework or process involved the an… read more...

Recession Proof, Bull Market And More Of The Emperor's New Clothes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-12 06:09:17:000

This week the markets have been all about the on again/off again trade talks between the US and China and the latest updates from the Tweeter-in-Chief. The Volatility Index (VIX) is reaching a four-month high, which is seriously hurting all those who helped build up the record net short positi… read more...

Real Trade Balance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 11:42:13:000

By Spencer England The real trade deficit (million 2012 $) increased from $81,558 in February to $82,054 in March. The March observation was between the January and February data points so it was not large enough to generate a significant change in imports 0.58 percentage point contributio… read more...

A Different Kind Of Wage Inflation Heralds This Cycle's End

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 11:15:55:000

Towards the end of long expansions (this one is the longest on record) things get tight. Factories operate flat-out and start raising prices. Good workers become harder to find and companies start competing for them with higher wages and other perks. This story is about the "other perks" w… read more...

Despite Tariff Fears, 2019 And 2020 S&P 500 EPS Estimates See First Signs Of Improvement

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 06:43:00:000

May seem like a small data point, but this week showed the first sequential improvement in the "4-week" rate of change in the S&P 500 2019 and 2020 EPS estimate since - guess when - September 21, 2018. At least for the 2019 EPS estimate. The spreadsheet shows the actual data in the hig… read more...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-11 06:15:47:000

By Jill Mislinski This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 146.9, up 0.5 from the previous week. Year over year, the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.61%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is … read more...

Consumer Debt Sets New Record, But Rate Of Borrowing Could Be Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 22:35:30:000

By SchiffGold Consumer debt continues to climb and break records every month. But the pace of borrowing slowed in March, a possible red flag for the US economy. Total consumer debt rose $10.3 billion in March, hitting a record-setting total of $4.05 trillion, according to the latest rep… read more...

The True Cost Of Hedging S&P Downside

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 22:17:29:000

Hedging sounds like a smart thing to do. But has it actually worked? This post examines the historical costs and benefits of hedging stock exposure with SPY puts. Interest in hedging strategies tends to increase as market volatility rises. There are many ways to hedge, and a common method is… read more...

ICYMI - DiMartino Booth: The Ugly Truth About The Fed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-09 08:38:28:000

Watch the conversation below between Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and former Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino Booth (CEO of Quill Intelligence) in this exclusive investing webcast. The duo discuss the outlook for Fed policy, U.S. economy, markets and much more. Trust us, this is a must-watch… read more...

Hiring Continues To Lag Growth In Job Openings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 22:53:59:000

In the recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey , the level of openings increased by 346,000, while job hires fell 35,000. Openings remain at a high level but began to decline starting in December last year. The fact that the hiring level is lagging the growth in openings is a sign compa… read more...

Vehicle Sales Fell In April, And Credit Card Debt Shrank In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 22:47:28:000

By Robert Hughes Sales of light vehicles totaled 16.4 million at an annual rate in April, down from a 17.4 million pace in March (see chart). Despite the drop, the pace of sales remains within the 16-18 million unit range that we have seen for much of the past two decades. Unit vehicle sal… read more...

Job Openings And Labor Turnover: Clues To The Business Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 21:31:15:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through March, is now available. From the press release: The number of job openings rose to 7.5 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today…. read more...

Markets Keep Pushing The FOMC

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 21:14:32:000

Heading into last week's FOMC meeting, futures markets were pricing in close to an 80% chance of at least one rate cut from the FOMC between now and the January 2020 meeting in less than eight months. In his press conference following that meeting, Fed Chairman Jay Powell did his best to reset… read more...

The Mighty U.S. Consumer Is Struggling

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 20:05:01:000

Recent spending patterns combined with credit card losses reveal some disturbing trends. It's no secret the U.S. economy keys off consumption. On that count, it's beginning to look less and less like an expanding economy. Whether it's the internals of the first-quarter GDP report or the sour… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - May 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 03:33:59:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. The market has taken a hit lately. Should we be worried? A look at the data might help. Chart of the Week - The reaction to China Trade War In just two days, the market has given up all of its gains for the last month. As … read more...

The Dow Chart Says It's Going To 30,000

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 01:35:11:000

The retail investors favorite index - the Dow Jones Industrial Average - looks like its going to 30,000. I have never been one to make an investing decision based on charts alone, but my line of work has given me the experience to know that charts are used very extensively by f… read more...

The Stock Market - Trade Brings Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 13:30:31:000

After the significant correction that took stock prices appreciably lower during the final three months of 2018, stocks made back all of their losses over the first four months of 2019. The E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract rose to a slightly higher high at the end of April as the Fed backed… read more...

What The Fed Did At Its Last Meeting, April 30-May 1, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 12:37:40:000

This article provides an impact assessment of the FOMC April 30-May 1, 2019 meeting. Before the meeting, I wrote this report with details of all four of the major impacts. This is an update to follow up from the results of the meeting. At the meeting, the Fed left the headline Federal Fu… read more...

Saved By Zero: Earnings May Eke Out A Positive Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 03:09:28:000

By Liz Ann Sonders First, jobs Before I get to the subject at hand, I want to provide a quick update on last Friday's April jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Similar to the first quarter gross domestic product ((GDP)) report, the headline strength in the employment repor… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - May 6, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 22:49:00:000

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S&P 500 Touches New High As Fed Sets Course Of Inaction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 01:42:34:000

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) bounced up to reach a new high closing value of 2,945.83 on Tuesday, April 30, 2019, before dipping back on the next two trading days and finally closing a fraction of a point below that level on Friday, May 3, 2019. The level of the S&P 500 is consiste… read more...

On The Meaning Of 'Transitory'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 01:28:49:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities The Fed Chair has been stretching semantics on inflation, but his growth outlook mirrors ours. Last week, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added a new word to the central bank watcher's lexicon: "transitory."… read more...

Credit Markets Give Green Light To All-Time S&P 500 Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-06 00:56:45:000

Before the last January '18, February '18 plunge in the equity markets, the S&P 500 peaked on January 26, 2018, at 2,872 - 2,873. With Friday night's close at 2,945, the total gain for the S&P 500 (excluding dividends) is 2.5% from that January '18 peak. That is a paltry return for t… read more...

Testing Time

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 23:20:00:000

The Q1 earnings numbers have kicked up a lot of dust across sectors and individual companies, which is good news for stock-pickers eager to prove their worth. For markets as a whole, though, I see little change in the underlying narrative relative to what I have been talking about recently … read more...

S&P Earnings: Slowly Improving, Although Technology Earnings Are Lagging The Recovery

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 06:15:20:000

This graph, which appears weekly on the first page of I/B/E/S by Refinitv's "This Week's in Earnings," sometimes tells a better story than the written word, so it is posted this week to show readers that the share-weighted earnings (in US dollars) recovery is real, and it shouldn't be too long… read more...

1 In 13 Chance Of U.S. Recession Starting Before May 2020

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-05 01:58:46:000

The Federal Reserve chose to leave short-term interest rates in the United States unchanged at the conclusion of its third two-day meeting of 2019 on 1 May 2019, holding its target range for the Federal Funds Rate between 2.25% and 2.50%. In the day since the Fed's announcement and Fed Cha… read more...

Market Update: Jobs And Re-Pricing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 11:16:47:000

By OpenMarkets Today's jobs report reported not only solid job growth, but also subdued inflation, says Jack Bouroudjian. He discusses what this means for the Fed and markets, and how the technicals and fundamentals worked in this week's repricing in equities. Editor's Note: The s… read more...

ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower, But Continued Growth In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 10:13:48:000

By Jill Mislinski The Institute of Supply Management ((ISM)) has now released the April Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index ((PMI)), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 55.5 percent, down 0.6 from 56.1 last month. Today's number came in below the… read more...

March Monthly GDP Growth At 0.1%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 09:27:37:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 3, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . That's from Macroeconomic Advisers today. Turns out a bunch of monthly indicators have recently been released, including today's employment report. Here are some key ones followed by NBER's Busines… read more...

Central Banks Are Spawning A Zombie Apocalypse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 04:26:49:000

A zombie apocalypse is silently spreading across America. Indeed, across the globe. One-eighth of the United States are zombies now. Zombie companies , that is. Source: Amazon.com A zombie company is one that regularly requires large capital infusions in order to survive, or one tha… read more...

Strong April Jobs Report Reduces Recession Fears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 04:10:26:000

By Robert Hughes Payrolls in the United States rose by 263,000 in April, solidly beating an expected gain of 185,000. The healthy gain follows a solid 189,000 increase in March. Two strong monthly gains following the disappointing 56,000 increase in February shows the labor market remains … read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: New Month, Same Secular Bull Market Trend

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 15:34:27:000

As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits. Jesse Livermore The question that is being asked today by market participants. While the bull market is indeed back in gear with the break out to new highs, the question is wh… read more...

Icahn's IEP isn't backing down from bearish bet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-03 08:13:43:000

The investment unit of Icahn Enterprises ( IEP +1% ), the firm started by billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn in 2004, incurred a 5.8% loss in Q1 vs. a 5.3% gain in the same period a year ago. More news on: Icahn Enterprises L.P., SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 E… read more...

Investors Aren't Embracing Risk In The Way Equity Bulls Should Hope

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 22:27:29:000

One of the things I've started paying close attention to recently is the trend in risk appetites. Are investors embracing or shunning risk in the markets? Answering this question can help to understand the strength of the underlying trend. The chart below plots the S&P 500 Index (in blue… read more...

No Change In Claims

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 20:46:11:000

Weekly jobless claims came in unchanged this week for the first time since last September, when claims were at 212K in back-to-back weeks. Initial jobless claims came in at 230 versus forecasts of 215K. Looking back on April, it was a bit of a split month when it comes to this indicator, as th… read more...

McCullough: The Market Is Complacent On Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 06:47:53:000

The short volatility trade is all the rage once again on Wall Street. The markets positioning around the VIX has collapsed since the start of 2019, with net positioning at multi-year lows. According to the CFTCs latest futures and options report, Wall Street is now net short … read more...

Median Household Income In March 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 21:11:01:000

After having dipped to $63,378 in February 2019, median household income in the United States rose to $63,425 in March 2019, an increase of 0.1%. The following chart shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January… read more...

First-Quarter Job Cuts Confirm Economic Weakness Spreading

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 02:39:58:000

The US Challenger jobs report this week offered some insight into our economic cycle as well as ongoing upheaval in the energy and automotive sector. US job cuts in the first quarter were 190,410, 10.3% higher than in the final quarter of 2018 and 35.6% higher than the same quarter last year. … read more...

Consumers Confident About Jobs Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 02:32:53:000

Consumer Confidence for the month of April was released earlier this morning and handily topped expectations, coming in at a level of 129.2 vs. 126.8. Despite the rebound, the headline confidence reading remains well off its cycle high reading of 137.9 from six months ago back in October. On… read more...

Earnings Season Not Adding Up

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 02:05:34:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop Economic growth rates have been revised lower in recent months by economists and central bankers for countries around the world. Yet, the expected earnings per share growth rate for companies around the world next year has been rising for most of the past eight months a… read more...

Peter Schiff: What's Going On With The GDP?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 01:51:03:000

By SchiffGold The Commerce Department released the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth on Friday. It came in higher than expected at 3.2%. Somewhat surprisingly, the price of gold rose on the news and the dollar showed some weakness. The primary reason was presumably lower inflation. This me… read more...

Q1 GDP Vs. The 'Mini-Recession'; Yes, The 'Mini-Recession' Did Happen - And It May Not Be Over

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 19:31:57:000

Introduction On Friday, a former opinion editor of Investor's Business Daily touted the +3.2% first-quarter GDP report to specifically rebut my mini-recession scenario. Well, this morning personal income for February and March, and personal spending for Marc… read more...

S&P 500 Reaches New Record Heights

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-29 03:09:41:000

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) was buoyed up to reach new record heights during the fourth week of April 2019, closing the week at a new all-time record high value of 2,939.88 . Overall, we find the level of the S&P 500 is consistent with investors focusing on the distant future quarter… read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - Something For Everyone

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-28 14:34:00:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that will add t… read more...

How Have Full-Year 2019 S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Changed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-28 04:53:45:000

First, for the first time in a while, the number of "positive revisions" to S&P 500 estimates outnumber "negative revisions." Here's the data and the graph: The above is a spreadsheet kept weekly on the number of positive and negative S&P 500 EPS estimate revisions. What the reader w… read more...

Q1 GDP... Don't Break Out The Champagne Quite Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 11:47:55:000

This April 26th morning we received the first estimate for Q1 2019 GDP, and it looked at first glance to be considerably better than was expected, with the economy expanding at a 3.2% annual pace versus consensus expectations for 2.3% and growth of 2.2% in Q4 2018. Just don't break out the cha… read more...

Weekly Economic Release Summary - Did The New Panama Canal Locks Affect USA Transport Analysis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 09:30:16:000

On 26 June 2016, the new larger locks were opened in the Panama Canal. These new locks not only doubled the capacity of the canal but also raised the maximum ship size from 110 ft. wide, 1,050 ft. long, and 41.2 ft. deep to 180 ft. wide, 1,400 ft. long, and 60 ft. deep. According to the Fi… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Rebound Continues - Revenue Growth Is Less Robust

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 02:15:30:000

Love this graph IBES by Refinitiv puts at the bottom of the first page of "This Week in Earnings" every week. That's about all you need to know right now: Q1 '19 earnings growth "expectations" were too low, and now that we are seeing actual earnings, the expected growth rate for Q1 '19 is ri… read more...

The Case For A Melt-Up

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 16:38:56:000

Anyone with a penchant for skepticism had a leg up in 2018, when, for the first time in a long time, caution paid off. A simple "buy the dip" strategy failed for the first time in 16 years . (Morgan Stanley) While the media has variously trotted out Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson as the p… read more...

Market Update: Looking For A Pattern

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 02:05:33:000

By OpenMarkets In earnings season, traders look for a pattern. The re-pricing of assets now has many market watchers re-evaluating their expectations for earnings, says Jack Bouroudjian. He also covers how the yield curve and strong U.S. dollar play into the latest rally. Editor's … read more...

Durable Goods Orders Show Strength In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-26 00:09:17:000

By Robert Hughes New orders for durable goods jumped 2.7 percent in March, boosted by a 31.2 percent surge in nondefense aircraft and a 17.7 percent gain in defense aircraft. Because of the large per-unit price and the tendency for buyers to place orders for multiple aircraft at once, both… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 37K, Disappoints Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 21:32:55:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1… read more...

Eternal Bullishness And Willful Blindness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 05:08:14:000

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had their highest closings on record Tuesday, regaining ground lost in last year's rout. Stocks have flourished under a more accommodative Federal Reserve. In January, the central bank said it would hold interest rates steady, setting in motion the stock ma… read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report: 25th April, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-25 04:37:01:000

The US economy continues to show signs of stabilizing at a slower pace of growth, based on a broad set of economic and financial indicators. Although the possibility of a recession can't be ruled out in the second half of 2019 and beyond, the risk of economic contraction remains low at the mom… read more...

U.S. Growth: Back From The Brink

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 17:41:40:000

Just a few weeks ago, markets were worried that the US economy might have stagnated in the first quarter. However, a recent raft of positive surprises means that we should be expecting 2.5% annualised growth from Friday's 1Q GDP report. A tough start There was considerable pessimism surrou… read more...

Celebrating launch of fifth DeltaShares Managed Risk ETF, Transamerica to ring closing bell at New York Stock Exchange April 24

via: PR Newswire at 2019-04-24 11:58:00:000

DENVER , April 24, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Transamerica executives will have the honor of ringing the renowned closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday, April 24 to recognize the successful launch of DeltaShares S&P EM 100 & Managed Risk ETF, the fifth DeltaSh… read more...

Trade Risks That Could Rattle Markets: NAFTA Withdrawal, Auto Tariffs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 01:54:32:000

While we believe that optimism regarding an evolving and eventual trade deal between the U.S. and China is well-placed, we would caution investors against growing complacent about trade policy risk more broadly. Other trade actions could weigh on markets and pose a headwind to U.S. economic g… read more...

Was The GFC A Once-In-A-Lifetime Event?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 01:42:09:000

Someone emailed me with a very good question yesterday: "Did we really go through a once-in-a-lifetime Great Recession in 2008, or is the global economy overleveraged to an even greater extent, just in different ways?" My basic view of the Great Financial Crisis is that it was not unique… read more...

Technically Speaking: Running On Empty

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 04:24:36:000

Running On Empty "Running On Empty" was an iconic song about life on the road as a traveling musician. The 1977 live recording, which became a 1978 hit for Jackson Browne, is considered one of true representatives of Heartland Rock and a concert favorite. When Jackson Browne was interviewe… read more...

The Coming Profit Collapse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-23 01:48:40:000

When real earnings have reached the current extreme in the past, a massive decline in earnings has followed. The bottom in earnings might come in the next recession in as little as two years, or it might take a couple of recessions and take ten years to reach the bottom. Businesses are more … read more...

Thoughts On The Next Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 23:46:07:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on April 22 by Menzie Chinn here . CEA Chair Kevin Hassett has stated a recession by next summer is impossible . I'm wary of such definitive statements. From a May 2008 WSJ article: "The data are pretty clear that we are not i… read more...

Kyle Bass: 'Be On A Heightened Sense Of Alert'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 08:15:55:000

This is an absolute, must-see interview. Renowned hedge fund manager Kyle Bass joined Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough for a pro-to-pro discussion on China, global recession, and why interest rates may head to near zero by 2020. Youre not going to get better perspective… read more...

S&P 500 Mostly Flat In Holiday-Shortened Week 3 Of April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 03:27:28:000

If investors are in any rush to push the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) above the record-high closing value of 2,930.75 it set back on 20 September 2019, they didn't betray any sign of it during the Good Friday holiday-shortened third week of April 2019, as the index mainly drifted sideways during… read more...

Drink The Wine

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 01:53:24:000

We hope that you had a chance to read our latest Quarterly Letter: Be Your Own Master The New Retirement . The key to saving enough to retire is in deferring consumption. We have always been more of savers, and working on Wall Street tended to help with deferring cons… read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm: Cyclical Strength + Green Shoots

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 13:50:53:000

Those who follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P500 ( SPY ) #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that will… read more...

The 2020s: Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, And Japan-Like Flat Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 04:33:31:000

Im slowly losing confidence in the economy. I still think the economy is okay for now. But I also see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point, this growth phase will end. It will be either recession or an ex… read more...

Most Disrespected, Unloved And Disbelieved Secular Bull Market Since The Last One

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 03:42:19:000

That was an apt description of the sentiment surrounding the early years of the secular bull market that ran between 1982 and 2000. The bears thought they'd put the last nail in its coffin after the Dow Jones Industrials posted a 170% gain in the five years between 1982 and 1987, only to colla… read more...

The Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-21 02:28:00:000

The Fear Of Missing Out Over the last couple of weeks, we have been discussing the market's advance from the lows and why retesting old highs was quite probable. To wit: "While the bullish bias is definitely behind investors currently, there are concerns relative to the current ris… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - April 19, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 06:58:53:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. April has been an unusually quiet month in the stock market so far, with daily price changes well below their long-term averages, and the volume of trading on the decline. What does it mean and why am I watching it? One poss… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Update: Is The S&P 500 Earnings Turn Beginning?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 00:31:09:000

A focus on the Healthcare sector and historical revenue and earnings growth will come this weekend. The sector has been absolutely crushed the last few weeks. S&P 500 Earnings (by the numbers): Source: I/B/E/S by Refinitiv Fwd four-qtr est: $172.14 vs. last week's $173.14 … read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: The New Regime

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 03:55:39:000

The Federal Reserve has entered a new period of policymaking. Federal Reserve officials have never been in a position like they are now. Going forward, it is going to be trial and error. Financial markets and financial institutions are going to have to watch closely and liste… read more...

An Apparent Rebound From The Government Shutdown 'Mini-Recession,' But Then What?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 18:15:42:000

Introduction A few weeks ago, I wrote that it looked like we had a mini-recession in the December-February time frame, in which case we should expect a rebound thereafter. We got data apparently confirming both of those points this morning, contrasting recent weakness with … read more...

Has The Market Reached A Double Top?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 16:59:22:000

Source: USA Today The S&P 500 has just staged one its most powerful short-term rallies in years. The most widely watched U.S. stock index is now up by about 24% since the December bottom. Yet, with the market approaching new all-time highs, there is increased speculation about a poss… read more...

Replacing LIBOR

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 04:52:36:000

By David Blitzer LIBOR - the London Interbank Offered Rate - is the benchmark for over $300 trillion of loans, derivatives and other financial instruments. LIBOR started in the syndicated loan market of the 1960s; today it is quoted in different currencies and maturities. Following scandal… read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Equity Market Report April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 04:20:00:000

Read more … read more...

Reality Vs. Fantasy: What To Watch For This Earnings Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 04:01:17:000

Just recently, David Robertson ran an article discussing the deviation which has grown between "fantasy" and "reality" in the investing markets. " The phenomenon of extreme differences is also increasingly appearing in financial numbers, which are the life blood of markets. Andrew Smithers… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Down 0.1% In March, Annual Revisions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-17 04:03:45:000

By Jill Mislinski Note : This commentary has been updated to incorporate the March data for Industrial Production. From the report: The annual revision to industrial production and capacity utilization was published on March 27, 2019. Data referred to in the release dated March 15,… read more...

Peak Margins: A New Earnings Headwind

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-17 00:29:48:000

By Brian Demain, CFA, and Philip Cody Wheaton, CFA Portfolio Managers Brian Demain and Cody Wheaton share their insights on the headwinds driving margin compression and what it could mean for stocks. As a new earnings season kicks off, U.S. companies face a fresh challenge to earnings … read more...

Lay Of The (Liquidity-Barren) Land

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 15:05:01:000

It turns out that despite the ongoing collapse in cross-asset volatility that's naturally accompanied 2019's "everything rally", liquidity has stopped improving. "Liquidity" is a somewhat amorphous concept that most investors still struggle to get their heads around. That's understandable, … read more...

10 Scary Charts - April 16, 2019, Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 10:54:36:000

Please note this post is the latest update to a series of articles, the last being " 10 Scary Charts - January 16, 2019 Update ." I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous … read more...

Technically Speaking: Drive For Show

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 04:45:52:000

Drive For Show In golf there is an old axiom: "Drive for show. Putt for dough." This past weekend, Tiger Woods completed a comeback on Sunday by capturing his fifth Master's title and his 15th major tournament win. It was a victory that snapped a decade-long championship drought and in… read more...

Improved Outlook For Global Economy Boosts S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 05:04:54:000

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) continued its upward trajectory in the second week of April 2019, where it is now within 24 points, or 0.1%, of its previous peak of 2,930.75 set back on September 20, 2019. The thing that boosted the market the most during the week was the news on Friday, Apri… read more...

Market Commentary - April 11, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 23:30:00:000

Read more … read more...

One Last Earnings-Related Table: The Rationale For A Financial Sector Overweight

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 22:17:20:000

This blog post addressing Financial sector earnings came out Thursday night, which didn't help readers, so I wanted to do one more dissection of expected S&P 500 2019 earnings and make the case for Financials from a different perspective. The above I/B/E/S by Refinitiv table from This … read more...

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - The Rise Of The 'Echo Bull'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 14:04:27:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that will add t… read more...

Credit Markets And The Forward Earnings Curve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 04:47:29:000

Sourcing Bloomberg/Barclays data; here are the YTD returns for the bond market asset classes as of Friday, April 12th, 2019: US Corp High Grade: +5.13% US Corp High Yield: +8.14% Mortgages ((MBS)): +1.89% Municipals: +2,67% US Treasuries: +1.32% US TIP… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: April 2019, It's Deja Vu All Over Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-13 02:53:34:000

"The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the "Active" to the "Patient"." - Warren Buffett The week started with the S&P keeping its positive streak alive by posting a gain for the eighth straight session. That came to an end on Tuesday when the tone of investors changed… read more...

Want S&P 500 Exposure? Don't Get Distracted By ETF Noise And Just Invest In SPY

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 02:45:00:000

Source: Shutterstock On April 10th, I published an article on Seeking Alpha about the S&P 500 and how both EPS growth estimates and multiple expansion had to play out in order for the index to reach its consensus target of 3,096. The article was also tagged with tickers like DMRL, EPS,… read more...

The Recession Obsession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-12 01:49:26:000

By David Baskin It is hard to open a newspaper or listen to a business report without hearing the word "recession." Suddenly, everybody is worried that the economy is about to go into the tank and that we will all become poor, or at best, poorer. I think it is worthwhile to look at the top… read more...

Labor Slowdown Already; Another Account Falls In Line Of May 29

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 23:03:07:000

May 29. May 29. May 29. It keeps showing up everywhere. Not only does it appear as an inflection on so many important market charts, we keep finding it in economic accounts, too. There is so much to corroborate what can only have been a real and striking event. This contrasts, of course, wit… read more...

Wall Street's Debt Obsession Is A Good Thing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 16:26:53:000

A dominant theme on Wall Street in the years since the credit crisis has been the obsession with debt. Specifically, there has been a perpetual fear among analysts, investors and reporters that there is too much debt in the private and public sectors. Even in Washington, there … read more...

JOLTS Weakness, But A Month Is Not A Trend

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 04:10:41:000

The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed a drop in openings of 538,000. Commentary on the February report used terms like plunged and disaster. Admittedly, the decline in openings should not be dismissed out of hand; however, it has not been an unusual occurrence for openin… read more...

JOLTS Weakness, But A Month Is Not A Trend

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 04:10:41:000

The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed a drop in openings of 538,000. Commentary on the February report used terms like plunged and disaster. Admittedly, the decline in openings should not be dismissed out of hand; however, it has not been an unusual occurrence for openin… read more...

NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimistic In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 03:50:26:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out on Tuesday morning. The headline number for March came in at 101.8, up 0.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 80th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com fo… read more...

NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimistic In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 03:50:26:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out on Tuesday morning. The headline number for March came in at 101.8, up 0.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 80th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com fo… read more...

The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 03:32:11:000

By Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world. One year later, much has changed. The escalation of US-China trade tensions, needed credit ti… read more...

The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 03:32:11:000

By Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world. One year later, much has changed. The escalation of US-China trade tensions, needed credit ti… read more...

How The S&P 500 Will Return 20%+ In 2 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 02:45:00:000

With earnings expected to climb just 3.6% in 2019 and PE multiples above both the 5-year and 10-year average, how is the S&P 500 ( SPY ) expected to generate a total return of almost 10%? That figure is divided up into roughly 7.5% of price gains to a level of 3096, based on consensus esti… read more...

How The S&P 500 Will Return 20%+ In 2 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 02:45:00:000

With earnings expected to climb just 3.6% in 2019 and PE multiples above both the 5-year and 10-year average, how is the S&P 500 ( SPY ) expected to generate a total return of almost 10%? That figure is divided up into roughly 7.5% of price gains to a level of 3096, based on consensus esti… read more...

Is Pre-Earnings Season Pessimism A Good Thing?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 02:19:19:000

As big fans of Bespoke's research, the firm published their long-awaited earnings season preview today. Here is the first chart: Here is the second chart: Although the sharp first quarter 2019 rally in the S&P 500 throws a fly in the ointment, the upshot of the sentiment analysis for… read more...

Is Pre-Earnings Season Pessimism A Good Thing?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 02:19:19:000

As big fans of Bespoke's research, the firm published their long-awaited earnings season preview today. Here is the first chart: Here is the second chart: Although the sharp first quarter 2019 rally in the S&P 500 throws a fly in the ointment, the upshot of the sentiment analysis for… read more...

Of Slopes And Flops: The Yield Curve Inversion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 02:00:00:000

(Source: " Market's Favorite Recession Indicator Lurches Lower in New Year ") The investment world and the financial medias are abuzz with the USD yield curve and its growing flattening/inversion, and for good reasons. Here is why the inversion is so important - it augurs glooming times. … read more...

Of Slopes And Flops: The Yield Curve Inversion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 02:00:00:000

(Source: " Market's Favorite Recession Indicator Lurches Lower in New Year ") The investment world and the financial medias are abuzz with the USD yield curve and its growing flattening/inversion, and for good reasons. Here is why the inversion is so important - it augurs glooming times. … read more...

S&P 500 Dividend Growth To Decelerate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 01:01:18:000

According to the CME Group's quarterly dividend futures , the rate at which S&P 500 dividends are growing will peak in the current quarter of 2019-Q2, then will go on to decelerate through mid-2020. The deceleration becomes more apparent when we track the trailing twelve-month sum of qu… read more...

S&P 500 Dividend Growth To Decelerate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 01:01:18:000

According to the CME Group's quarterly dividend futures , the rate at which S&P 500 dividends are growing will peak in the current quarter of 2019-Q2, then will go on to decelerate through mid-2020. The deceleration becomes more apparent when we track the trailing twelve-month sum of qu… read more...

Preparing For The End Of The Cycle: March Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 18:08:46:000

After two very bullish months (January and February), the US stock market moved rather sideways in March, but the uptrend since the December lows is still intact (and maybe even the long-term uptrend since 2009). Since the December lows, the major US indices rallied about 20% within a very sho… read more...

Preparing For The End Of The Cycle: March Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 18:08:46:000

After two very bullish months (January and February), the US stock market moved rather sideways in March, but the uptrend since the December lows is still intact (and maybe even the long-term uptrend since 2009). Since the December lows, the major US indices rallied about 20% within a very sho… read more...

Just As Forecast, The Leading Sectors Of The Jobs Report Have Declined

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 06:51:02:000

Introduction: Ive been forecasting a slowdown in the leading job sectors For the past few months, I have been forecasting a jobs slowdown. That has been based in part on the natural progression of a downturn in long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, and finally to co… read more...

March Employment Update: Growth Outlook Intact; S&P Fairly Valued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 04:21:35:000

Economic Composite I updated my economic composite to reflect the release of the U.S. Labor Department's employment report on April 5. The report showed a rise in nonfarm employment of 196,000 in March. The number was ahead of expectations of a gain of 175,000. Preliminary numbers for the pr… read more...

The VIX Is Back In The Buy Zone

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-09 02:00:00:000

The wild stock market action during the fourth quarter of 2018 has faded in the rearview mirror of market participants. The panic that gripped many investors during the final three months of 2018 is now heralded as another in a long series of buying opportunities cementing the overall market p… read more...

Peter Schiff: We're In A Bear Market Rally (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 10:18:39:000

Peter Schiff is one of the few economists who predicted the housing crisis leading up to 2008. Although he is often (wrongly) disregarded as a "broken clock that is right twice a day" and a "permabear", I believe Schiff's perspective on the economy and the markets, rooted in Austrian theory, i… read more...

Bill Nygren Market Commentary Q1 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 04:49:44:000

At Oakmark, we are long-term investors. We attempt to identify growing businesses that are managed to benefit their shareholders. We will purchase stock in those businesses only when priced substantially below our estimate of intrinsic value. After purchase, we patiently wait for the gap bet… read more...

Sentiment Snapshot: Melt-Up Time?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 03:30:46:000

In this edition, I take you through another 5 charts which increasingly show a clear turning point in sentiment from previous pessimism to tentative optimism on the fundamentals outlook. Indeed, while you don't want to go flippantly throwing around the term "melt-up," if these nascent signals … read more...

The S&P 500 Gains On Positive Trade Deal Noise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 02:35:07:000

Not much happened during the first week of April 2019 to shift the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) off of the upward trajectory it has tracked since bottoming in December 2018. Moreover, over the last 10 weeks, it has largely fallen within the range of the red zone we added to our spaghetti forec… read more...

Expected S&P 500 - And Technology - Revenue Growth Headed Into Q1 '19 Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 00:47:57:000

Here is the historical and prospective S&P 500 revenue growth per the latest IBES data: Q4 '19: +6.4% (est) Q3 '19: +5.0% (est) Q2 '19: +4.6% (est) Q1 '19: +5.0% (est) Q4 '18: +5.1% (actual) Q3 '18: +9.5% (actual) Q2 '18: +9.6% (actual… read more...

Market Commentary - April 8, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 22:30:00:000

Read more … read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - Bullish Breakouts, Big Pictures, And Breaking Even

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 12:24:36:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that will add t… read more...

Jobs Growth Slows, But Only A Little Bit

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 03:21:26:000

April 6's job numbers beat expectations, with 196,000 jobs added and a small positive revision to the prior two months. On a rolling 3-month average, job creation fell to the lowest level in over a year, but only marginally. While jobs growth is still solid, it has cooled a bit. That isn't any… read more...

First Sequential Increase In 2019 S&P 500 Estimate Since Early December 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-07 03:00:02:000

The 2019 full-year bottom-up EPS estimate for the S&P 500 started in early October at $178.45 and ended this week at $167.54. Only once during the calendar 4th quarter did the calendar 2019 EPS estimate increase sequentially and that was November 30th's $176.15 which was then followed by… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: Just How Restrictive Is The Federal Reserve?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 10:38:31:000

Just how restrictive is the Federal Reserve? According to the statistics I watch, the Federal Reserve is not restrictive at all. If one looks at the growth of the money stock, in this case the broader M2 measure of the money stock, we see that year over year for the four weeks ending March… read more...

Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-06 08:48:30:000

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli , having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. … read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 10K, Lowest Since 1969

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 05:40:00:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims sinc… read more...

Once More Unto The Breach

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 02:20:16:000

Here we are, again, standing at the fortified wall built by the Bears (aka the Rally-Sellers) back on September 20, 2018. The Bulls (aka the Dip-Buyers) are determined to punch a hole in the wall and release their thundering herd into the breach. The Bears are prepared to push them back, again… read more...

It's Not A Recession, It's A 'Global Economic Slowdown'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 19:52:51:000

By George Pickering For much of the past several months, it has been almost impossible to open the pages of any business section or skim through any article on current economic events without encountering the same ominous phrase: global economic slowdown. The quickness with which this ne… read more...

The End Of The Bull Market, In 3 Charts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 19:39:06:000

Stocks have completely recovered from their flash bear market of late 2018. But now they face a hard question: Can already record high prices continue to rise in the face of falling corporate profits? Let's start with the "falling corporate profits" part: A business generates improving p… read more...

Don't Target Interest Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 03:41:47:000

John Cochrane has a very long and interesting post, which advocates that the Fed target interest rates. I respectfully disagree. Here's Cochrane: But money has disappeared from more recent economic thinking. My preferred model of the world (fiscal theory of monetary policy) has an inter… read more...

The Price Of Inflation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 12:45:15:000

Monetary inflation creates the breeding ground for what we commonly refer to as the catalysts of financial crises. It lays the foundation on which the building blocks of all financial crises are erected. In tandem with inflation, these catalysts multiply and grow large enough over time to crea… read more...

3 Factors That May Impact The S&P In Q2

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 02:03:53:000

By Scott Bauer At a Glance The worlds most popular equity market benchmark may continue to reflect the dovish stance from the Fed and U.S-China trade tensions. The S&P 500 index is one of the leading benchmarks of the overall market, to which all other i… read more...

When Will The Sky Fall?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-03 01:00:58:000

Now, before you get all snippy about my negativity, let's get something straight. Everyone has their own opinions about the markets and what they selfishly want to see them do. For me, it isn't that I want to see people that are long in the market lose money - I mean I am long with equities in… read more...

Economic Outlook - Cautiously Optimistic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 09:20:03:000

Time flies. It's time for another monthly economic outlook. This time, I am happy to report that things are looking less bad than they did last month. At least in some areas of the world. Nonetheless, I am afraid that the situation has also become a bit more complicated given that not everythi… read more...

First Quarter 2019 Performance Commentary And Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 02:59:00:000

Editors Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

U.S. Trade Gap A Sign Of Economic Strength?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 02:31:43:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome ArcadiaEconomics as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more The U.S…. read more...

Manufacturing Sector Growth Continued In March

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 02:26:01:000

By Robert Hughes The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index from the Institute for Supply Management registered a 55.3 percent reading in March, up from 54.2 in February (see top chart). The index remains below the results in the upper 50s of much of mid-2017 and 2018 but solidly above n… read more...

Slack In Labor Force May Give Fed Room To Cut Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 01:25:24:000

Several economists believe the labor force is much larger than what is currently being reported. They referred to this as slack in the labor force, which could very well be one of the main forces behind the lower-than-expected inflation rates. There are several macro reasons for the Fed&#x20… read more...

Major Asset Classes: March 2019 Performance Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 23:32:43:000

Property shares dominated the broad-based performance gains for the major asset classes in March. Foreign real estate securities led the rally last month, closely followed by US-listed property linked stocks. The only slices of global markets that retreated: foreign high-yield bonds, bonds iss… read more...

The S&P 500 And The Reign Of Confusion At The Fed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 22:42:35:000

Since the U.S. Treasury yield curve officially inverted on March 22, 2019, when the yield of the 10-year note dropped below the yield of the 3-month bill, many of the Federal Reserve's minions have been running around in all different directions as confusion reigns at the U.S.' central bank…. read more...

Weekly Market Notes - April 1, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 21:50:00:000

Read more … read more...

The S&P 500: Our Industry's Oops

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 11:54:23:000

By Jeff Weniger, CFA The S&P 500 Index has not been around as long as you think. I encourage you to investigate the events that led to it becoming a $9.9 trillion monster. You know the methodology: each of the 500 stocks is weighted by its market capitalization. The supposed catalyst… read more...

Earnings Updates For Top 10 Stocks In S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 02:23:43:000

Readers who aren't visually challenged can see the above Excel spreadsheet, updating the 2019 EPS estimates for the Top 10 Stocks in the S&P 500. Visa (V) has now joined the Top 10, while Bank of America (BAC) has fallen to 12th place in the S&P 500, and Procter & Gamble (PG) has… read more...

Yearly S&P 500 Outlook: The Remaining 9 Months Of 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 00:22:51:000

But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one. - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional stock market models suffe… read more...

Monthly S&P 500 Outlook For April 2019:  The March Trends Continue?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 21:10:18:000

But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one. - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional stock mar… read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - No Easy Answers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 16:20:36:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically, I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that will add … read more...

Will S&P 500 Earnings Bottom With Q1 2019's Results?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-31 06:47:20:000

That's the $64,000 question today: will S&P 500 earnings hit their trough with the Q1 '19 earnings reports set to start in the next two weeks? Prior to last year's distortion of the typical quarterly earnings revisions thanks to TCJA (Tax Cuts & Jobs Act), it was usually noted on thi… read more...

Consumer Sentiment And New Home Sales Post Gains

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 11:54:03:000

By Robert Hughes The final March results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Sentiment show overall consumer sentiment improved from the February result. Consumer sentiment increased to 98.4 in March, up from 93.8 in February, a 4.9 percent gain. From a year ago, the index … read more...

Is The U.S. Yield Curve Signaling A U.S. Recession?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 11:47:42:000

There has been a lot of talk the past few years about the flattening of the US yield curve - which is a graphical representation of the spread between short- and long-term interest-rate instruments. More recently, some market commentators have focused on the inversion of one part of the curve … read more...

Measuring Unemployment And Labor-Force Participation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 09:46:40:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on March 29 by James Hamilton here . The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate and labor-force participation rate are calculated contain numerous inconsistencies - if one of the numbers economists use is correct, another… read more...

In The Midst Of Rising Unknowns, Focus On What We Do Know

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 06:03:13:000

As someone famous (or infamous depending on your leanings ) once said, "there are known knowns there are known unknowns but there are also unknown unknowns." We've got a whole lot of the second two going around these days and that is not good for growth. Life and investing r… read more...

Slowing Growth Raises Questions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 23:29:16:000

By Robert Hughes Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, down from a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The final quarter of 2018 marks the second consecutive deceleration in quarterly growth… read more...

Individual Investors Still Neutral

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 21:08:31:000

Bullish sentiment is back down this week to 33.2% as the percentage of individual investors reporting as bulls fell just over 4% from last week's 37.3%. Optimism has now declined 8.4 percentage points from the recent high in late February. While still not at any sort of extreme levels, this mo… read more...

Stock Market Volatility Picks Up As Trade And Brexit Take Center Stage

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 02:00:00:000

Last week, the US special prosecutor sent his report to the Attorney General that seems to end one chapter of uncertainty when it comes to collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives during the 2016 Presidential election. The issue had hung over markets like a dark cloud threat… read more...

UPRO Uptrend Showing All Systems Are Still A Go

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 01:53:31:000

The ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF ( UPRO ) made its run-up back to the 200-day moving average after being down for three days in a row and nearly touching the 100-day moving average. Whether the S&P 500 will be able to continue its uptrend or not from current levels remains to be se… read more...

Median Household Income In February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 04:29:12:000

Sentier Research reports that median household income in the United States dropped to $63,378 in February 2019, a decline of 0.5% when compared to the analytical firm's initial estimate of $63,688 for January 2019. As such, February 2019 saw the largest month-over-month decline in this data … read more...

How Market Valuation Affects Future Stock Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 12:47:55:000

The price/earnings ratio (P/E) has a multiplier effect on stock returns . Over 1020 years, it can dramatically increase or decrease your total return. In the secular bear market of the 1960s and 70s, shrinking P/E ate away almost all the return from earnings growth and div… read more...

Technically Speaking: Are We Going To New Highs?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 10:18:48:000

Are We Going To New Highs? I recently received the following email: "Are we going to hit new highs you think, or is this a setup for the real correction?" The answer is "yes" to both parts. Thank you for reading. See you next week. You still here? Fine, let me explain then. … read more...

S&P 500: Remaining Humble Is Key

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 08:11:20:000

Over the years, we learned the hard way that remaining humble is one of the most important values an investor can learn when investing in the financial markets. Since markets and trends can change on a whim, staying adaptable is key to excelling long term. For example, so many perma-bears are … read more...

Chicago Fed: Little Change In February

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 01:23:29:000

By Jill Mislinski "Index points to little change in economic growth in February." This is the headline for Monday morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - March 25, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 00:20:00:000

Read more … read more...

E-Mini S&P 500: Have We Made A Top?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 07:44:12:000

Last Week's Report: Take Profits If we look at the weekly report we published on March 16 on Seeking Alpha for the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract, our summary indicated that, if you are long, you should to take profits at 2864. The weekly high that was made last week was 2866. Aft… read more...

Podcast 3/24/19: Week In Review And Interview: Russ Murdock, CFA

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 04:59:34:000

The Weekly Grind podcast is designed to wake up your investment brain with weekly overviews of financial markets and other economic-related topics. Episode 5 Market Review and Interview: Russ Murdock, CFA - Small Cap Value Manager Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this arti… read more...

S&P 500 In The Week When The U.S. Treasury Curve Inverted

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 04:49:10:000

The big news for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in the third week of March 2019 was the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve on Friday, 22 March 2019, where for the first time since 2007, the yield of the 10-year T-note dropped below the level of the 3-month T-bill. Historically, that ha… read more...

How Does The Stock Market's Recovery Compare With History?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-25 03:21:30:000

The sharp rebound in the US stock market this year has cast doubts on various calls by models and pundits that a bear market started in the late 2018 plunge. But the rally hasn't deterred bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach: the DoubleLine Capital CEO doubled down and told CNBC on Thursday (March … read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - Late Cycle Lamentations Continue

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 17:29:23:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically, I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that will add … read more...

Have Expected 2019 S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Been Reduced Too Much?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-24 03:22:15:000

With 497 of the S&P 500 having reported their Q4 '18 earnings, attention has been focused on Q1 '19 and full-year 2019 S&P 500 earnings for a few weeks, and really since Walmart (WMT) reported, since the majority of companies have typically reported their quarterly news by the mid-poin… read more...

The Yield Curve Inverted

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-23 03:12:40:000

The Financial Times reports that the yield curve inverted, albeit by just 1 basis point: Uh oh Does this mean a recession is more likely than before? Yes. Does this mean that a recession is likely in the next 12 months? Probably not. Does this mean that monetary policy is too t… read more...

Less Listing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-22 00:40:40:000

Torsten Slok at DB sent along this lovely graph. The underlying paper, " Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets? " by Craig Doidge, Kathleen M. Kahle, G. Andrew Karolyi, and Ren M. Stulz, has a lot more. Stocks are fleeing the exchanges in the US. Small and … read more...

Weekly Edge: How The FOMC Meeting Could Affect The Dow's Bullish Cross

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 23:46:47:000

Originally published on March 20, 2019 By Ansh Chaudhary The Dow chart currently suggests a bullish "golden cross" pattern, just three months after the bearish "death cross" pattern preceded a 6.6% drop in Dow. A golden cross or death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses… read more...

Transamerica Launches DeltaShares S&P EM 100 & Managed Risk ETF, Expanding the DeltaShares Suite of Strategic Beta ETFs

via: PR Newswire at 2019-03-21 05:53:00:000

DENVER , March 21, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Transamerica Asset Management, Inc. today announced the launch of the DeltaShares S&P EM 100 & Managed Risk ETF, an expansion of the DeltaShares by Transamerica suite of strategic beta exchange-traded funds (ETFs) introduced in Au… read more...

Transports Leading Stock Market And Economy Lower

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-21 01:38:27:000

On Tuesday after the close, the largest global courier delivery service, Federated Express (FedEx) ([[FDX]]), warned of weaker-than-expected earnings and revenue for the second time in six months. In response, the shares have fallen 37% since January 2018 and 5% today alone. This is not a Fe… read more...

U.S. Q1 GDP Growth On Track To Slow Again As Fed Meeting Begins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 12:12:02:000

The recent slowdown in US economic growth is expected to continue in the first quarter, according to the latest nowcasts for GDP. The estimates will likely be a factor in the Federal Reserve's policy meeting that begins today and concludes tomorrow with an announcement on interest rates, a new… read more...

U.S. Q1 GDP Growth On Track To Slow Again As Fed Meeting Begins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 12:12:02:000

The recent slowdown in US economic growth is expected to continue in the first quarter, according to the latest nowcasts for GDP. The estimates will likely be a factor in the Federal Reserve's policy meeting that begins today and concludes tomorrow with an announcement on interest rates, a new… read more...

When Comparing Stock/Market Valuations, Are You Using The Correct Frame Of Reference?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 05:51:29:000

Many investors are raising cash due to what are perceived to be high market valuations, the lengths of the economic expansion and market rise and slowing growth in economies around the world. Some buy-and-holders are just accumulating dividends while others are doing that plus trimming stock h… read more...

When Comparing Stock/Market Valuations, Are You Using The Correct Frame Of Reference?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 05:51:29:000

Many investors are raising cash due to what are perceived to be high market valuations, the lengths of the economic expansion and market rise and slowing growth in economies around the world. Some buy-and-holders are just accumulating dividends while others are doing that plus trimming stock h… read more...

The S&P 500 Survives Quadruple Witching, But What Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 00:57:51:000

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) survived last week's quadruple witching on Friday, 15 March 2019. The last time the S&P 500 was at such a height was back on 9 October 2018, shortly after the market peaked at its record high closing value of 2,930.75 on 20 September 2018, just ahead of anoth… read more...

Choices - The New Retirement

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 22:54:11:000

It is tax time, and that is traditionally the time of year when we talk to clients the most. The calendar has just turned, and thoughts turn to taxes and retirement. We have had a recurring conversation with several clients these last few weeks. The overriding question is, "When do I retire?" … read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm: Short-Term Outlook, Central Banks, And Global Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 20:06:02:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically, I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that will add … read more...

Hair-Trigger Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 08:55:50:000

Stocks are at an inflection point. After a bruising end to 2018, the major indices caught fire at the turn of the New Year as the world's central banking cartel leapt into action. Here's how the US Federal Reserve reacted: The central banks have more than demonstrated that they are now sub… read more...

Consumer Sentiment And Job Openings Show Improvement

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 05:38:48:000

By Robert Hughes The preliminary March results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Sentiment show overall consumer sentiment improved from the final February result. Consumer sentiment increased to 97.8 in early March, up from 93.8 in February, a 4.3 percent gain. From a ye… read more...

Job Openings And Labor Turnover: Clues To The Business Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 04:16:57:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through December, is now available. From the press release: The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor St… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings: Working Through The Weak Patch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 01:30:32:000

The S&P 500 closed above 2,822 on Friday, March 15th, 2018, which was just the 2nd close above that key level since early October 2018. There have been three healthy corrections for the S&P 500 since the 2008 bottom: 2011: The S&P 500 correction 19%-20% from early May 2011 to… read more...

'The Most Attractive Buying Opportunity Of Our Lifetimes'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 04:50:46:000

10 years ago this week, I wrote a post here that I'm sharing again now because I think it's important to remember just how difficult it is to do the right thing in the markets at the right time. Things were so bleak back then that if you were optimistic you sounded and felt like an utter fool… read more...

'The Most Attractive Buying Opportunity Of Our Lifetimes'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 04:50:46:000

10 years ago this week, I wrote a post here that I'm sharing again now because I think it's important to remember just how difficult it is to do the right thing in the markets at the right time. Things were so bleak back then that if you were optimistic you sounded and felt like an utter fool… read more...

If I Was Only Allowed One Investment, This Is It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 01:48:50:000

About 25 years ago, I was a fresh-faced graduate trainee at a leading investment bank in London. One day, my parents dragged me along to a garden party organised by some friends. Once there, I was introduced to the global head of the bank's stock trading business, who must have been a mutual… read more...

If I Was Only Allowed One Investment, This Is It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 01:48:50:000

About 25 years ago, I was a fresh-faced graduate trainee at a leading investment bank in London. One day, my parents dragged me along to a garden party organised by some friends. Once there, I was introduced to the global head of the bank's stock trading business, who must have been a mutual… read more...

All Eyes On The NIPA Profit Margins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 01:16:34:000

Not all profit margin data are created equal. Elga explains why we focus on profit margins in the national accounts data (NIPA) and shares where they appear headed. Earnings are a key driver of equity returns. That's why we care about profit margins, which we expect to fall this year . … read more...

All Eyes On The NIPA Profit Margins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 01:16:34:000

Not all profit margin data are created equal. Elga explains why we focus on profit margins in the national accounts data (NIPA) and shares where they appear headed. Earnings are a key driver of equity returns. That's why we care about profit margins, which we expect to fall this year . … read more...

TSP Indicator Update: Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop And Remembering 1966

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 17:44:39:000

In November, we argued that the business cycle rests heavily on a certain type of incremental spending - namely, spending that doesnt require prior savings. We used the term thin-air spending power (TSP) to describe spending thats financed by external injections&#x201… read more...

TSP Indicator Update: Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop And Remembering 1966

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 17:44:39:000

In November, we argued that the business cycle rests heavily on a certain type of incremental spending - namely, spending that doesnt require prior savings. We used the term thin-air spending power (TSP) to describe spending thats financed by external injections&#x201… read more...

Weekly Edge: New Round Of Economic Data Inches Stocks Higher

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-14 01:15:30:000

By Ansh Chaudhary Following the Ethiopian Airlines crash on Sunday, Boeing ([[BA]]) investors have lost approximately $26.6 billion in market capitalization over the first two trading days this week, according to CNBC . Shares have drawn down by more than 10% over the same period. Sunday'… read more...

The 'Real' Goods On The January Durable Goods Data

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 22:11:15:000

By Jill Mislinski On Wednesday morning, the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on the latest Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments. In the charts… read more...

Happy 10th Anniversary Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 11:21:09:000

Source: https://pxhere.com This is the fourth bull market anniversary piece published by 3D since my arrival at the firm in 3Q 2015. The prior three can be found here , here and here . From the market closing low reached on 3/9/2009, the S&P 500 Index has achieved an annualized ret… read more...

Shutdown-Delayed Long Leading Indicators Confirm Q4 Recession Watch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 19:29:49:000

Introduction Last month, I made a preliminary long leading forecast through the end of 2019: " Preliminary Long Leading Forecast For 2019: Recession Watch Beginning Q4 ". Since that time, the remaining Q4 2018 series I was waiting for have been published, and weve also gotten sever… read more...

Small Business Rebounds Less Than Expected

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 09:28:41:000

After the steepest five-month decline since the Financial Crisis and the longest monthly losing streak since 1998, NFIB Small Business Confidence rebounded in February, although by a less than anticipated degree. While economists were expecting the headline index to bounce from 101.2 up to 102… read more...

An Ominous Pattern In The E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 02:00:00:000

Fundamentals tend to drive my opinion of markets. I have been trading commodities and other assets since the early 1980s and have found that supply and demand factors often uncover compelling opportunities in markets across all asset classes. When it comes to technical analysis, I never discou… read more...

What A Late-Cycle Slowdown Means For Profit Margins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 01:56:18:000

The late-cycle deceleration in growth casts a shadow on corporate profit margins. Elga explains. We believe global economic activity should slow this year to a level closer to potential growth rates . What does this mean for corporate profits and margins, especially as the U.S. enters t… read more...

Tribeca Trade Group Weekly Commentary Newsletter March 10, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 01:03:00:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

The Number Of Firms And Dividend Payers In The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 00:25:20:000

Here's our entry in the competition for the chart of the day: Perhaps the most surprising information on the chart? Since 2014, there has been more than 500 firms in the S&P 500! References Silverblatt, Howard. S&P 500 Dividend Payers. Standard and Poor S&P Dow Jones Indices…. read more...

Weekly Market Notes - March 11, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 22:05:00:000

Read more … read more...

U.S. Job Growth Disappoints For February, But Long-Term Trends Are Still Strong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 08:49:07:000

Posted by Noelle Corum, Associate Portfolio Manager on March 8, 2019, in Fixed Income US nonfarm payrolls increased by a disappointing 20,000 1 jobs in February - markets had expected an increase of 180,000. 2 Contributing to the disappointment was the performance of key sector… read more...

U.S. Job Growth Disappoints For February, But Long-Term Trends Are Still Strong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 08:49:07:000

Posted by Noelle Corum, Associate Portfolio Manager on March 8, 2019, in Fixed Income US nonfarm payrolls increased by a disappointing 20,000 1 jobs in February - markets had expected an increase of 180,000. 2 Contributing to the disappointment was the performance of key sector… read more...

The Silent Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 07:22:13:000

The decade that was . Exactly ten years ago this week, I wrote an article on Seeking Alpha entitled A History Of Market Violence . This article published on March 5, 2009 effectively at the financial crisis bottom for the U.S. stock market considered the parallels that existed at the time be… read more...

The Silent Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 07:22:13:000

The decade that was . Exactly ten years ago this week, I wrote an article on Seeking Alpha entitled A History Of Market Violence . This article published on March 5, 2009 effectively at the financial crisis bottom for the U.S. stock market considered the parallels that existed at the time be… read more...

February Jobs Report Raises Questions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 05:36:06:000

By Robert Hughes U.S. nonfarm payrolls added just 20,000 jobs in February, well below the consensus expectation of 180,000 and the smallest monthly gain since September 2017 (when just 16,000 jobs were created, reflecting the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma). The prior two months show… read more...

February Jobs Report Raises Questions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 05:36:06:000

By Robert Hughes U.S. nonfarm payrolls added just 20,000 jobs in February, well below the consensus expectation of 180,000 and the smallest monthly gain since September 2017 (when just 16,000 jobs were created, reflecting the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma). The prior two months show… read more...

Payrolls: Neither Good Nor Bad, Just More Uncertain

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 04:28:55:000

The BLS giveth, and the BLS taketh away. That's not really what has happened, of course, but for many it can seem that way. February's payroll report obviously stands in striking contrast to January's. The latter was a blowout, over +311k (revised), hyped near and far as proof of decoupling, t… read more...

Payrolls: Neither Good Nor Bad, Just More Uncertain

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-10 04:28:55:000

The BLS giveth, and the BLS taketh away. That's not really what has happened, of course, but for many it can seem that way. February's payroll report obviously stands in striking contrast to January's. The latter was a blowout, over +311k (revised), hyped near and far as proof of decoupling, t… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Tug Of War Is In Full Swing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 09:17:33:000

"Here is part of the trade off with diversification. You must be diversified enough to survive bad times, or bad luck, so that skill and good process can have the chance to pay off over the long term." - Howard Marks We pick up where we left off last week, only this time we note that t… read more...

Weekly Economic Vital Signs - Wages Keep Growing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 08:21:21:000

Construction Spending Construction spending declined 0.6% in December, when it was expected to increase 0.3%, and the year-over-year rate fell 1.6%, which was the weakest growth rate in three years. What heavily weighed on this number was a 3.2% drop in single-family homes, which I expect … read more...

Early Estimates Point To Ongoing Slowdown For U.S. Q1 GDP Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 03:41:00:000

Preliminary nowcasts for US economic growth in the first quarter suggest that the slowdown in 2018's second half will continue, based on a set of estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The degree of the deceleration remains open for debate, of course, in part because it's still early in … read more...

Early Estimates Point To Ongoing Slowdown For U.S. Q1 GDP Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 03:41:00:000

Preliminary nowcasts for US economic growth in the first quarter suggest that the slowdown in 2018's second half will continue, based on a set of estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The degree of the deceleration remains open for debate, of course, in part because it's still early in … read more...

Early Estimates Point To Ongoing Slowdown For U.S. Q1 GDP Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 03:41:00:000

Preliminary nowcasts for US economic growth in the first quarter suggest that the slowdown in 2018's second half will continue, based on a set of estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The degree of the deceleration remains open for debate, of course, in part because it's still early in … read more...

The Stock Market Looked Great - March Madness Ahead?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 01:00:00:000

Memories often run short in markets. Since the week of December 24, stocks had taken off to the upside, and the fear and uncertainty that gripped the equity arena at the end of 2018 has faded into the markets rearview mirror. While stocks have climbed over the past ten weeks, many of the iss… read more...

The Stock Market Looked Great - March Madness Ahead?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 01:00:00:000

Memories often run short in markets. Since the week of December 24, stocks had taken off to the upside, and the fear and uncertainty that gripped the equity arena at the end of 2018 has faded into the markets rearview mirror. While stocks have climbed over the past ten weeks, many of the iss… read more...

The Stock Market Looked Great - March Madness Ahead?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 01:00:00:000

Memories often run short in markets. Since the week of December 24, stocks had taken off to the upside, and the fear and uncertainty that gripped the equity arena at the end of 2018 has faded into the markets rearview mirror. While stocks have climbed over the past ten weeks, many of the iss… read more...

Market Update: Expiration

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 19:24:16:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian explains the short contract expiration period were in, and why that can affect Read more … read more...

Your Legacy And Fortnite

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 04:35:15:000

My youngest of three is a 15-year old boy and we talk investing a bit. It helps me to keep up on the latest trends on where teenagers are spending their money, and I enjoy spending time with my son. He has been talking to me about the waning interest in the game Fortnite . More interesting to… read more...

S&P 500 Continues To Levitate On Trade Deal Optimism

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 01:44:48:000

For a week that was crammed with as much news as it was, not much changed for the S&P 500 , as the index continued hovering just above the top end of our redzone forecast range for a second week. We're getting to an interesting point of time for the stock market, because we'r… read more...

One Of My Favorite Indicators Signals A Global Earnings Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 07:14:09:000

Many know Ive been calling for a global earnings recession since May 2018. It all started when I saw a sharp collapse in the South Korean Export Growth Indicator aka SKEG (a highly accurate, yet-barely-followed, metric). Ive written many times before on the i… read more...

Will S&P 500 Earnings Improve As We Move Through 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 06:02:55:000

2016 was the last year where we saw the kind of correction we had in the 4th quarter of 2018, with the S&P 500 bottoming in Q1 '16. Here is the chronology of S&P 500 earnings growth by quarter in 2016: Q4 '16: +7.8% Q3 '16: +4.3% Q2 '16: -2.1% Q1 '16: -5% … read more...

A Contrarian And A Calculator + The Deep Value Case For Shipping Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 05:29:27:000

Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings Latest Articles/Podcasts/Videos - The Fed Put Is Real and China Stimulates - Alex updates us all on China's surprise stimulus and the Fed's epic flip from hawk to dove. Macro Ops Podcast: Alex, Tyler, Chris, and Mr. B - Chri… read more...

Putting America's Huge $20.5T Economy Into Perspective By Comparing U.S. State GDPs To Entire Countries

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-03 01:05:12:000

The map above matches the economic output (Gross Domestic Product) for each US state (and the District of Columbia) in 2018 to a foreign country with a comparable nominal GDP last year, using data from the BEA for GDP by US state (average of Q2 and Q3 state GDP, since Q4 data aren't yet avai… read more...

From Gloom To Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 09:45:29:000

Gloomy clouds rolled in late last year in the form of a government shutdown; U.S.-China trade war tensions; hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate policies; a continued special counsel investigation by Robert Mueller into potential Russian election interference; a change in the Congressional ba… read more...

The Long Expansion Continues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-02 09:37:34:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on March 1, 2019 by James Hamilton here . The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. That's below the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the… read more...

Trade Against Pension Fund Constraints For Better Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-01 01:33:02:000

My piece last week, " Another Great Trade You've Probably Never Heard Of ," generated a fair number of page views, comments, and emails. Since there seems to be a lot of interest, I'd like to expand on some of the ideas and show more of how you can implement it, with some more explanations and… read more...

Markets Rise On U.S.-China Trade. But Will It Last?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 23:58:13:000

The U.S. says it will delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods and that a trade deal between the two largest economies in the world could be coming soon. What could this mean for investors and the markets? Kim Parlee talks to Jacky He, Client Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Read mo… read more...

Real GDP Growth Decelerated In The Fourth Quarter, But Domestic Demand Remains Robust

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 23:48:20:000

By Robert Hughes Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, down from a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Measured from fourth quarter 2017 to fourth quarter 2018, real GDP increased 3.1 percen… read more...

Powell Put Confirmed: Balance Sheet Reduction Will End This Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 22:15:29:000

By SchiffGold After weeks of hinting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the central bank will end its balance sheet reduction program this year. This just five months after insisting quantitative tightening was on "autopilot." "We've worked out, I think, the framework… read more...

The Best Year In Over A Decade Confirms The Economy Still Near The Worst

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 20:38:28:000

A month behind schedule, Q4 GDP sure did disappoint. I don't mean that it was disastrously weak, rather it came in right down the middle, benefiting neither camp. The BEA's not preliminary but not quite second revised GDP estimate for Q4 2018 was 2.55617% (seasonally adjusted compounded annual… read more...

Claims Tick Up But No 52-Week High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 20:22:15:000

Jobless claims on a seasonally adjusted basis came in higher once again this week, rising to 225K from an upwardly revised 217K last week. This is right in the middle of the range that claims have been at for much of the past year. The streak of weeks below 300K now stands at 208, so the indic… read more...

S&P 500 Profits In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 19:42:11:000

With the majority of corporations having reported, Standard & Poor's is estimating profits will be $155.56 per share for the full year. Some believe that when the earnings season is complete, profits will be at about $160 per share. At any rate, the $155 represents a 20% increase from 2017… read more...

Initial Jobless Claims Not Quite At Warning Levels Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 15:32:35:000

Introduction Initial jobless claims are an important short leading indicator, typically turning up 3-9 months before a recession. A problem is the necessity of filtering out signal from noise. There are two ways I measure claims in order to do so: (1) how much has the less noisy four-week av… read more...

Retail Sales Data That Sowed Panic Among Investors Could Be Just A Glitch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 10:41:09:000

Recession antennae popped up everywhere on February 14. The Commerce Department reported retail sales fell 1.2% in December. It was the worst month-over-month decline since 2009: Chart: Bloomberg Now, there are reasons to doubt this reports significance. This Might Hav… read more...

Weekly Edge: Historic Stock Market Rally Treads Water... Patiently

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 02:50:34:000

By Ansh Chaudhary After the market experienced its worst-performing December since the Great Depression, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index have started this year with historic rallies. According to CNBC , "This is the first time since 1964 that the Dow has … read more...

Don't Dismiss The Dire Message From 'The Index Of The Volume Of Speculation'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 02:29:16:000

"Even the most circumspect friend of the market would concede that the volume of brokers' loans - of loans collateraled by the securities purchased on margin - is a good index of the volume of speculation." - John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash, 1929 January margin debt figures wer… read more...

Macro Update - February 26, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 01:42:00:000

Read more … read more...

Tariff Worries And U.S. Business Investment, Take Two

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 06:01:52:000

By David Altig, executive vice president and research director in the Atlanta Fed's Research Department; Nick Bloom, the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University; Steven J. Davis, the William H. Abbott Distinguished Service Professor of International Business and Econom… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Set To Slow Again In Q4 Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 02:34:25:000

This week's delayed fourth-quarter report on US gross domestic product ((GDP)) remains on track to confirm that US economic growth continued to slow. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report (on Thursday, February 28) that the expansion moderated for a second straight quarter, bas… read more...

Technically Speaking: Sell Today? Risk Vs. FOMO

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 09:50:37:000

The market is downright bullish. There is little reason to argue the point given the bullish trend since the December 24th lows. Of course, such is not surprising given the Fed's dovish turn from tightening monetary policy to quietly putting the "punch bowl" back on the table. But yet,… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - February 25, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 02:40:00:000

Read more … read more...

Chicago Fed: Slower Growth In January

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 15:28:26:000

By Jill Mislinski "Index points to slower economic growth in January." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed Nat… read more...

SPY: 5 Reasons Why Stocks Are Headed Even Higher From Here

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 09:34:20:000

Source: Ibankcoin.com The S&P 500/SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY ) is at a critical juncture right now. SPY at $280 (2,800 SPX/S&P 500) represents a crucial technical resistance level. Furthermore, stocks have been on a tear since markets bottomed late last year, are now signif… read more...

S&P 500 Drifts Higher On Trade Deal Optimism

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 06:41:28:000

After breaking out above the top end of our red-zone forecast range last week, the S&P 500 ( SPX ) drifted higher through the third week of February 2019, hovering just above it. As a reminder, the range indicated by the red zone forecast represents where our dividend futures-based mo… read more...

Market Commentary - February 21, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 06:30:00:000

Read more … read more...

Investing Newsletter - January 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 05:27:00:000

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S&P 500 EPS Estimate Revisions: What Is It About The First Quarter In Terms Of Earnings Weakness?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 13:21:23:000

When this blog post was written about a month ago, the S&P 500 EPS estimate revision data was exhibiting the kind of negative revisions that have been previously seen in first quarters since I began tracking the data in the fourth-quarter 2009. In other words, when there has been "weak… read more...

If A Recession Shows Up In 2020, Who Will Have Predicted It?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 10:36:54:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on Feb. 23, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . Recessions, once they are underway, happen fast - a lot faster than expansions. Who's forecasting recessions, according to the WSJ February survey (the February Survey of Professional Forecast… read more...

Bulls Charge Into Economic Slowdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 08:15:35:000

Last weekend , we discussed the two things driving the markets currently: " The first is the Fed. As we discussed with our RIA PRO subscribers last week, "Today, [Cleveland Fed Reserve Governor Loretta Mester] all but put the kibosh on further rate hikes and, per Mester'… read more...

Analyzing S&P 500 Earnings Data For Clues To Q4 2018 Correction - Was There A Tell?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 07:48:07:000

Maybe a better question for the headline to today's blog post would have been, "What about the weekly S&P 500 earnings data would have given clues to anticipating the Q4 '18 selloff?" To be completely frank with regular blog readers, I didn't see this deterioration in the S&P 500 ear… read more...

No, We Don't Talk Ourselves Into Recessions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 04:51:35:000

I've heard many times that we can talk ourselves into a recession by too many doom-and-gloom discussions. We seem to be running that experiment right now, with rising concerns about an economic downturn. But a look at history shows we never have talked ourselves into recession, and the likelih… read more...

January 2019 Data Update 9: The Pricing Game

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-23 10:52:02:000

In my last eight posts, I looked at aspects of corporate behavior from investments to financing to dividend policy, using the data that I collected at the start of 2019, to examine what companies share in common, and what makes them different. In summary, I found that the rise in risk premiums… read more...

The VIX Is At The Lowest Level For 2019 - How Long Can That Last?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 08:00:00:000

In 2016, the first six weeks of the year were downright ugly when it came to the stock market. An economic slowdown in China rippled around the world in a tsunami of selling as Chinese domestic equities experienced a severe correction to the downside. The S&P 500 index dropped from a high … read more...

Sinking Shippers Signal Global Goods Troubles

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 03:27:40:000

It infects every boardroom across the world. Big business requires decent forecasting, yet time and again it seems they are deprived of what they desperately need. Instead, even after this last decade, the world's largest companies continue to be surprised by weakness that is far more prevalen… read more...

Equity Markets In Search Of Direction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 00:39:31:000

The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its worst December performance since the Great Depression. But stocks have bounced back, and the markets have recovered nearly all of their losses. Is there more room to run? Kim Parlee speaks with Michael Craig, senior portfolio Manager at TD Ass… read more...

Investors Increasingly Optimistic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 00:33:01:000

As seen through the weekly AAII survey this week, investor sentiment showed growing optimism but nothing extreme. Bullish sentiment was up a little over 4% to 39.32%, and while not particularly high, the percentage of bulls now sits at the upper end of the range the sentiment reading has bee… read more...

McCullough: Biggest Recent Surprise? The Data Is Actually Worse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 19:10:23:000

A number of viewers had a similar question for Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough this week. The gist of it was this: Has anything changed on the margin? Were walking the knifes edge between Quad 3 and Quad 4 in the outlook. Has that shifted at all over the past few days? … read more...

Lacy Hunt On The Six Characteristics Of An Overindebted Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 15:12:29:000

Lacy Hunt On The Six Characteristics Of An Overindebted Economy Lacy Hunt is one of the leading economists on the theory of debt deflation and one of the only fixed-income managers that has been on the correct side of interest rates for decades. Hunt has constantly stood by the argument that… read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report: 21 February, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 07:43:27:000

The US economic trend continues to slow, but the deceleration - so far - has been gradual and non-threatening in terms of raising recession risk to a critical level. In other words, moderate growth prevails, albeit with a downside bias. If the deceleration rolls on, the potential for trouble m… read more...

Weekly Edge: SEC Seeks More Public Companies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 05:25:08:000

By Ansh Chaudhary A proposal recently released by securities regulators is garnering attention from investors and companies alike, The Wall Street Journal reports . Hoping to boost the number of public companies, the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC's) new provision would allow… read more...

Were January Gains Just A Bear Market Rally?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 07:51:25:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA On last week's "Behind the Markets" podcast, Liqian Ren and I hosted a macro-focused episode, discussing both the latest political events and the global macro environment with Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist for AGF Investments, and Simon White, managing… read more...

Winter 2019 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 05:14:44:000

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings. The earnings outlook for the S&P 500 has darkened more s… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - February 19, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 01:35:00:000

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McCullough: Don't Hang Your Hopes On Stimulus

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 17:24:08:000

Reality check. Betting on monetary stimulus from the Fed is a bad idea. Try as they may, central bankers cant bend and smooth economic reality. As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains to a new subscriber, our model is designed to front-run policy, not react to it. Because… read more...

S&P 500 Breaks Out Of Redzone

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 09:19:35:000

After last week's failed breakout attempt , the second week of February 2019 saw the level of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) broke out above our redzone forecast range on Friday, 15 February 2019, boosted by the speculation of improved prospects for a trade deal being reached between the U…. read more...

Put Some Clothes On - The Tide Will Soon Be Going Out

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 13:52:06:000

About three weeks ago I penned a research note that outlined why S&P 500 ( SPY ) earnings and revenue growth estimates were too high and made a call that over the next 12 months EPS and revenue numbers would not meet what is priced into the market. You can read that note by clicking her… read more...

Is A 2019 Stock Market Crash Coming? Is The Bear Market Here?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 06:46:14:000

In this video, we'll review whether a stock market crash is coming and whether the bear market is here. The latest BofAML Fund Manager Survey is out and provides an interesting look into just how pessimistic asset managers remain. The most important takeaways, in my opinion, are the str… read more...

Market Commentary - February 14, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 04:20:00:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

The Wolf Street Report: February 17, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 04:06:54:000

What's Causing the Subprime Auto Loan Fiasco? Serious auto loan delinquencies are now on par with Q2 2009 when millions of people had lost their jobs and when the economy was in free-fall. But today unemployment is low and the economy appears to be humming. What gives? (13 minutes) Bu… read more...

Finely Poised

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 03:55:00:000

Let's spare a few moments of sympathy for the equity bears. The Q4 rout was supposed to have been an appetizer for a more sustained bear market, and by most accounts, the major narratives are still on their side. Excess liquidity indicators - chiefly real M1 - and other leading macro-indicator… read more...

Expect A Trading Range Breakout Soon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 19:44:09:000

It has been a slow, grinding process for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) since the September bottom, but finally it has reached the top end of a 4-month trading range. The upcoming test of the 2,800 level in the SPX carries as much significance psychologically as it does technically, for a success… read more...

Top 5 Charts Of The Week: USA & China Macroeconomic Trends

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 19:14:54:000

Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn ). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Hope you enjoy! 1. U.S. Economic Optimism: He… read more...

Is It A (Bull) Trap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 08:57:14:000

On Tuesday, I discussed the issue of the markets being stuck between various short- and longer-term moving averages. To wit: "Despite those more macro-concerns, the market has had a phenomenal run from the 'Christmas Eve' lows and has moved above both the Oct-Nov lows and the 50-dma… read more...

What Forward Period Do S&P 500 Earnings Discount?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 08:18:18:000

Originally published February 16, 2019 This chart got a lot of play on Twitter on Friday and Saturday morning, and it tells, but also stimulates, a more important question (maybe): Just how far out does the S&P 500 (the index) discount earnings data? Here is the "4-week change" in th… read more...

Tan Liu: Why Many Of Today's Most-Owned Stocks Are Ponzi Schemes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 07:22:51:000

Stocks provide a return to today's investors via two mechanisms: dividends and capital gains. Dividends provide and income stream which can be quantitatively valued. Capital gains result from speculation - an expectation that future dividends will be higher than the market currently expects…. read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Rally Continues With Resistance Ahead, Get Ready For A Tug Of War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-16 12:48:39:000

"Headlines, in a way, are what mislead you, because bad news is a headline, and gradual improvement is not." - Bill Gates Investors are asking where do the equity markets go from here? The following will give one an idea of how difficult it is to even attempt to come up with an answer…. read more...

Building A Portfolio For The Future

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 04:00:40:000

Equity markets unraveled in the last quarter of 2018, sending investors into panic mode. But almost just as quickly, markets have recovered most of those losses. So what gives? Kim Parlee speaks with Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist, TD Wealth , who says we need a new narrative to… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 4K, Worse Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 01:20:56:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending February 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 239,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,… read more...

A Tale Of Teens In 2 States

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 03:25:33:000

Together, Texas and California are home to over one out of five teens between the ages of 16 and 19 in the United States. Of the two states, California's teen population is larger than that of Texas, although its population has been slowly declining in recent years, while Texas' teen populatio… read more...

U.S. Fiscal Flows For December 2018 Point To Rising Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 02:58:50:000

The purpose of this article is to assess the macro-fiscal flows for December 2018 and determine what effect these flows will have on the stock market and the economy. Macro fiscal flows impact investment markets with a lagged effect of typically one month. A flush of funds now from governmen… read more...

What Recession?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 22:57:52:000

Earnings for the major companies were flying high in Q1 and Q2 of 2018 as most major consumer spending indicators were surging and enterprise technology spending seemed to be on track to deliver meaningful growth throughout the year. But then in the 3rd quarter something happened. The Dow… read more...

S&P 500 Should Cross 3100 In 2019, Per Disposable Income Formula

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 22:16:07:000

A vast majority of US economy is driven by consumer spending. Consumer demand is increased or decreased based on the ability of an average middle-class American to spend on discretionary items beyond the basic needs of housing, food and fuel. Interest rates play a large part, as consumers can … read more...

Late Car Payments Hit Record High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 04:16:21:000

Today, the Washington Post featured a piece that highlights what we at Tematica have been saying for months and is highlighted in our Middle-Class Squeeze investment theme. All is not well in many American households at a time when unemployment is at a 50-year low, there are more job openings … read more...

The Economic Impact Of Decreased Tax Refunds Is Likely To Be Significant

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 22:28:59:000

Introduction It turns out that the recent brouhaha about how the tax law changes are affecting refunds may have a substantial effect on consumer spending. The estimated total decline in the amount of refunds is about -0.4% of annual retail sales Heres the math: according to CNN … read more...

We're Overdue For A Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 09:15:00:000

We're way overdue for a sell-everything recession, one that the Fed will only make worse by pursuing its usual policies of lowering interest rates and goosing easy money. As I noted last week, central banks, like generals, always fight the last war - until the war is lost. The global eco… read more...

Traders Are Focusing On FANG Through Nasdaq Futures

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 05:22:47:000

By Bruce Blythe At a Glance E-mini Nasdaq futures trading soared to new highs amid recent tech-stock volatility. Consumers have sunk their teeth into the four companies behind the so-called FANG stocks. The same could be said about traders and a futures contract, CME Group&#x20… read more...

Weekly Market Notes - February 11, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 01:12:00:000

Read more … read more...

Recession Risk Rising In Europe

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 20:47:33:000

While many bullish (optimistic) investors were attempting to shrug off the European economic slowdown several months ago, including the ECB, claiming a rebound was just around the corner in 2019, the data is here to refute that claim. The economic data across the Eurozone has deteriorated … read more...

A Failed Breakout For The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 05:50:56:000

For a moment during the first week of February 2019, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) looked like it might fully break out of the range described by our redzone forecast, but alas, it only poked just above the upper end of the range for a few days before dropping back into it. Had the S&P 50… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Good Breadth But Bad Earnings - Which Prevails?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 05:37:00:000

The weekly S&P 500 earnings update: Fwd 4-qtr estimate: $168.79 vs. last week's $169.13 P/E ratio: 16x PEG ratio: 4x S&P 500 earnings yield: +6.23% vs. last week's +6.25% Year-over-year growth of fwd est: +3.8% vs. last week's +4.2% Source: I/B… read more...

Next Stop: Recession!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 12:32:04:000

We've enjoyed years of "recovery" since the Great Financial Crisis by literally papering over our problems with newly-printed money, instead of addressing their root causes. But we've now arrived at the awkward part of the story; when all of our prior mistakes finally catch up with us, and t… read more...

Doubting The Gods

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 10:55:09:000

Equities traded uninspired last week, and that should come as no surprise. As Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar Kocic put it on Friday evening, "there is a sense of fragile local stability", and that fragility is directly attributable to a lack of visibility around virtually all of the key risks f… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - February 8, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 05:53:05:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. Things are about to get real We're getting close to finding some answers to the important questions that investors have been struggling with for more than a year. Will the economy tip over into a recession? Will the stock ma… read more...

Fun With Legs And Shoulders

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 12:56:07:000

The global stock market drop in the third quarter of 2018 was sharp and quick. In North America, the S&P 500 and TSX 60 fell 18 and 15 percent, respectively, in just 60 trading days between October 1 and December 24th. Both then rebounded some 14% in the 25 and 28 trading days that followe… read more...

How Has Expected 2019 S&P 500 Earnings Growth Changed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 08:16:42:000

Energy and Basic Materials, as well as Technology - led by Apple (AAPL) - have been the biggest drag on expected full-year 2019 earnings growth for the S&P 500. Energy is the biggest drag, falling from an expected 26% growth rate on October 1 '18 to today's 8.5% decline (Clients have not… read more...

Investor Sentiment Has Improved But Not To An Extreme Level

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 04:35:29:000

Several recent releases of various investor sentiment reports show an improvement in overall investor sentiment. In late December, I noted a number of the sentiment measures were indicating extreme fear on the part of investors. Since my December post, both sentiment and the equity market ha… read more...

The U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed In November

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 02:43:57:000

By Robert Hughes The U.S. trade deficit decreased slightly in November, falling to $49.3 billion. The narrower deficit reflects a smaller deficit for trade in goods ($71.6 billion deficit vs. $78.3 billion in October) and a smaller surplus in services ($22.3 billion versus $22.6 billion in… read more...

Bears In Hibernation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 02:33:07:000

AAII released its weekly survey of individual investors on Thursday with a sizeable uptick in bullish sentiment. Last week, bulls and bears were dead even at 31.8%, but this week the bullish camp rose to 39.87%. A portion of this boost in optimism likely came from the more dovish and clear t… read more...

Why U.S. Debt Must Continue To Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-08 02:16:29:000

Debt is rising more quickly in the United States than most people would prefer. This is happening in part because the U.S. current account deficit and the country's high level of income inequality distort the structure and amount of American savings. Many Americans are worried about the se… read more...

How To Interpret A Recession Watch From The Long Leading Indicators

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 19:16:26:000

Introduction Now that enough indicators have turned so that I have begun a recession watch, what does that mean? Look for persistence and confirmation Since, by definition, long leading indicators tend to turn at peaks at least one year before the top of the economic peak… read more...

A Cold War With China Spells Trouble For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 17:53:05:000

Last week, George Soros said that we are in a cold war with China that could turn into a hot war. While Soros and I dont often agree on politics, I did find my head nodding at times in his latest CNBC interview. Then Luke Gromen of Forest for the Trees wrote about change in the geo… read more...

5 Charts Of The Week: Time For A Global Monetary Policy U-Turn

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 17:34:05:000

Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Hope you enjoy! 1. Global Deflatometer: Back in the spot-light, this was the numb… read more...

SPY: The S&P 500 Will Be Increasingly Reliant On Revenue Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 16:50:49:000

SPY: The S&P 500 Will Be Increasingly Reliant On Revenue Growth As the S&P 500 has moved higher over the past six weeks with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) rallying more than 16% off the low set on Christmas Eve, nearly all fear has come out of the market and the sense of optimism … read more...

It Only Gets Worse For Europe. U.S. Stocks Look Out?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 16:21:39:000

Italy has been in a recession over the past two quarters. Now, the European Commission has slashed Italys growth to the lowest level in five years. Brussels cut its annual GDP forecast for Italy in 2019 to 0.2 per cent from a previous projection of 1.2 per… read more...

This Time Will Be Different

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 15:56:08:000

For almost 40 years, weve lived in an era of low rates and easy money. It let governments and businesses worldwide run up piles of debt. Global debt could easily reach $500 trillion in a few years. And yet everyone acts like that is normal and can continue. Just like subprime mortg… read more...

ClearBridge Investments: The Long View Market Commentary Q4 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 10:28:00:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Higher U.S. Stock Prices Not Driven By Higher Domestic Equity Inflows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 06:31:44:000

The end of 2018 saw the S&P 500 Index return decline over 13%, as seen in the first chart below. The second chart shows the snapback in the market that has rewarded investors at the start of 2019, with the price-only return of the S&P 500 Index up nearly 9%. In spite of the strong re… read more...

Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 05:55:09:000

By Jerry Wagner A quantitative money management firm is all about indicators - indicators for the stock, bond, and gold markets, usually. These indicators are tactical in nature - that is, they tell you when to be invested in the asset and when not to be. For some reason, February has al… read more...

Weekly Edge: Factors In Play Following The January Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 05:40:20:000

By Ansh Chaudhary Last month was the best January for U.S. equity markets in over 30 years. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe investors who sat out during January likely missed a bulk of the returns for the year. Although strategists don't expect markets to retest the December 2018 lows,… read more...

The Latest Look At The Total Return Roller Coaster

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 05:29:33:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: We've updated the charts below based on monthly data through January. Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&… read more...

How The Patient Investor Sees The World More Clearly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 06:18:35:000

One of my favorite things to think about in investing is the theoretical investor who slept through 1987. We all know about "Black Monday", the crash of 1987, when stocks fell 23% in one day. It was terrifying. But the craziest thing about 1987 is that the S&P 500 had a total return of 5.8… read more...

Stellar Earnings Reactions This Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 01:13:13:000

Stocks have been reacting very positively to their earnings reports so far this season. As shown below, the average stock that has reported earnings this season (since January 10th) has gained 1.12% on its earnings reaction day. Earnings season is still not even halfway complete, but if these … read more...

Technically Speaking: Too Fast, Too Furious

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 08:07:40:000

On December 25th, I penned "My Christmas Wish" wherein I stated that is was "now or never" for the bulls to make a stand. "If we take a look back at the markets over the last 20-years, we find that our weekly composite technical gauge has only reached this level of an oversold cond… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - 5 February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 07:13:07:000

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded to an annualized 4.5% in January after slipping to 4.2% at the end of 2018 . Today's revised estimate for GMI (an unmanaged market value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes except cash) represents th… read more...

McCullough: Don't Forget That Earnings Are Relative

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 17:24:27:000

You may have seen or heard a Wall Street media pundit boldly proclaim that earnings are good this quarter. That is useless information without context. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why in the video below. Where earnings are coming from relative to previous quarters i… read more...

S&P 500 Wins As Fed Officially Capitulates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 06:49:34:000

The biggest news for S&P 500 (Index: SPX) investors in the final week of January 2019 was the Fed's announcement that it would pause both its series of interest rate hikes and its quantitative tightening program aimed at reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securiti… read more...

Own More Companies Than Exist

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 04:47:19:000

Why stop at owning every single company that exists on Earth when you can own so, so many more? It's easy to do: simply invest in mutual funds and ETFs. According to Statista.com, there were 114,131 mutual funds worldwide in 2017 ( total mutual funds worldwide) and 4,535 ETFs ( total ETFs w… read more...

Fata Morgana

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 15:04:56:000

One of the more amusing things about Q4 2018 was the extent to which market participants fell victim to a series of narratives that, ultimately, were the product of a confused perspective - a kind of fata morgana . The "imminent US recession" story became the predominant market meme startin… read more...

What January U.S. Gasoline Demand Says About The Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 07:10:19:000

The US petroleum report, called "This Week In Petroleum", comes out every week on Wednesday. It gives us very real time information about the state of US petroleum production and usage. I find this report useful for it provides us year-over-year comparisons in demand that may give us a hint ab… read more...

Stocks Are Not Out Of The Woods

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-02 06:00:00:000

The final quarter of 2018 was an ugly time for the stock market in the U.S. The E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract traded to a high at 2944.75 during the first week of October, and by the end of December, it had declined to a low at 2316.75, a drop of 21.33%. The correction in the stock marke… read more...

1 In 25 Chance Of U.S. Recession Starting Before February 2020

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 05:13:16:000

The U.S. Federal Reserve finally backed off from hiking short-term interest rates in the U.S., choosing to keep the target range of 2.25-2.50% for the Federal Funds Rate. The risk that the U.S. economy will enter into a national recession at some time in the next twelve months now stands a… read more...

1 In 25 Chance Of U.S. Recession Starting Before February 2020

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 05:13:16:000

The U.S. Federal Reserve finally backed off from hiking short-term interest rates in the U.S., choosing to keep the target range of 2.25-2.50% for the Federal Funds Rate. The risk that the U.S. economy will enter into a national recession at some time in the next twelve months now stands a… read more...

Random Thoughts Of Snow On Wall Street

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 03:21:29:000

By Jerry Wagner Last weekend, I visited New York City to have a partial knee replacement on my left leg to match last May's version on the right. I sat for over an hour as the plane was prepared and de-iced in the middle of what seemed to be unending snowfall. As I watched the snowflakes d… read more...

Random Thoughts Of Snow On Wall Street

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 03:21:29:000

By Jerry Wagner Last weekend, I visited New York City to have a partial knee replacement on my left leg to match last May's version on the right. I sat for over an hour as the plane was prepared and de-iced in the middle of what seemed to be unending snowfall. As I watched the snowflakes d… read more...

A Closer Look At Wednesday's ADP Employment Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 01:20:35:000

By Jill Mislinski In Wednesday morning's ADP employment report, we got the January estimate of 213K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a decrease over December's revised 263K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor … read more...

A Closer Look At Wednesday's ADP Employment Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 01:20:35:000

By Jill Mislinski In Wednesday morning's ADP employment report, we got the January estimate of 213K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a decrease over December's revised 263K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor … read more...

ADP: Private U.S. Payrolls Post 'Significant Growth' In January

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 11:45:29:000

US companies added 213,000 workers to payrolls this month, according to the ADP National Employment Report . Although the monthly increase is below December's strong 263,000 gain, the latest number still reflect a healthy expansion for the labor market. The release goes a long way in dismissi… read more...

2 Out Of 3 Ain't (Good): Leading Indicators Falter Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 01:15:40:000

By Liz Ann Sonders Most regular readers know that I keep a close eye on leading economic indicators, especially at possible economic inflection points. There are two popular indexes that track a multitude of individual leading indicators - one published by The Conference Board (TCB) and on… read more...

U.S. Government Shutdown Ends, S&P 500 Up Less Than 1%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-28 06:41:58:000

For the S&P 500 ( SPX ), perhaps the biggest market-moving news of the fourth week of January 2019 came on Friday, January 25, 2019, with the announcement that the latest partial U.S. government shutdown would come to an end. Investors reacted to the news of the end of the 21st federal … read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Firmly Negative

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 12:07:33:000

Weekly S&P 500 earnings revisions from I/B/E/S for Refinitiv The above table is S&P 500 estimate revisions that are tracked every week from the I/B/E/S by Refinitiv report "This Week in Earnings", published every Friday. What is really interesting in the revision pattern is that … read more...

Great Expectations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 10:36:10:000

Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule. --Great Expectations, Charles Dickens, 1860 The U.S. stock market has a bit of an expectations problem. The rebound by the S&P 500 from its Christmas Eve lows has been impressive. So f… read more...

Can S&P 500 Finally Break The Downtrend Line Off The Sept. '18 Peak?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 06:49:49:000

S&P 500 daily chart as of 1/25/19 Trading back above the downtrend line will be the second major test after the S&P 500 recovered its 50-day moving average near 2,600. The government shutdown likely took the Fed/FOMC off the table for a while in terms of the US economy, although … read more...

Updated Earnings And Revenue Beat Rate Numbers For Q4 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 06:11:55:000

The Q4 2018 earnings season continued to pick up steam this week as another 100+ companies reported. Next week things kick into full gear, however, with an estimated 325+ companies set to report. Below we take a look at the numbers we've seen so far this season. As shown in the first chart b… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - January 25, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 06:05:11:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. Fun with numbers I keep reading bloggers and pundits and strategists saying that the correction is over because the market is up 13.3% from its recent low on December 24th. The rationale seems to be "you can't dismiss a 13.3% ra… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: A Re-Energized Market Catches Many By Surprise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 04:00:39:000

"Patience is not just about waiting for something it's about how you wait, or your attitude while waiting." - Joyce Meyer The rally off the lows has been impressive, and like all short-term moves, they eventually run out of steam. For now, the turnaround has left the S&P 9%… read more...

Jim Cramer Ridiculously Calls For An Investigation Of Christmas Eve Trading (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 11:18:30:000

On Mad Money last week, Jim Cramer called for an investigation of the Christmas Eve stock market selloff that occurred during a half day of relatively illiquid trading. That is represented by the "V" shape in the chart below that we have already recovered from. Data by YCharts Here's wh… read more...

Gary Shilling On What Could Cause The Next Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 04:18:51:000

Jim Puplava recently spoke with financial analyst and commentator A. Gary Shilling on FS Insider . Shilling has a long history with Wall Street - he was fired from Merrill-Lynch for accurately calling the 1969-1970 recession, noting how important it is to be aware of the bias of many Wall S… read more...

The Stock Market Isn't The Economy (But It's Close!)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 03:27:47:000

Weve published several articles detailing the continued strength of the US economy as a whole. Yet, the stock market seems to ignore good data regarding the largest portion of the economy (consumer spending), such as continued job growth, rising wages, record-setting holiday spending… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 14K, Better Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-25 01:47:03:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending January 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 199,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims … read more...

The Thing About Economic Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 12:06:27:000

The eurozone economy began 2019 with activity creaking to its slowest pace in more than five years, according to an influential poll of purchasing managers that will add fuel to concerns that the region is in the midst of a slowdown. This bit of information brought us by Cl… read more...

S&P 500: An Investor And Traders Guide For The Coming Months

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 11:24:14:000

In this article, I'll discuss the two primary paths for the coming machinations in the S&P 500 Stock Index and a view of how active investors and traders position to minimize losses and maximize profits. Let's start with the monthly chart showing the move up off the 2009 low (birds-eye v… read more...

Why Blaming 'Algos' For The Decline Is Really Just An 'Inverted Stock Tip'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 03:19:36:000

Last month, when stocks were tanking, there was a lot of talk about " algos " and how the computers were responsible for the waterfall decline. It's true that, as recently reported by the Wall Street Journal , "Roughly 85% of all trading is on autopilot-controlled by machines, models, or pass… read more...

Market Update: A Look At Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 00:43:12:000

By OpenMarkets Earnings projections following the last earnings period were subdued, with input costs expected to rise for many companies. That hasn't necessarily proven correct this earnings period. Jack Bouroudjian discusses the market result. Editor's Note: The summary bullets … read more...

It (Still) Looks Like A Bear Market For U.S. Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 14:31:46:000

On Christmas Eve, the US stock market appeared to be caught in a bear market, based on econometric analysis via a Hidden Markov model ((HMM)) . Since then, we've seen a strong rally in the new year. But the regime shift to the dark remains intact and in fact has strengthened. On the Chris… read more...

Are Stocks Cheap Or Expensive? My Action Plan For 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 07:27:31:000

Depending on what kind of valuation indicator you are looking at, you can either say that US stocks are excessively overvalued or reasonably priced. It ultimately comes down to how sustainable you think current earnings numbers are in the middle term. When making investment decisions for 201… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 03:06:46:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 22, 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a 7.46% gain, and in second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.90%. In third place is Germany's DAXK with a gain of 4.82%. Coming in… read more...

McCullough: Fade Old Wall GDP Forecasts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 15:51:10:000

Our macro teams GDP forecasts have an excellent track record of being ahead of the Old Wall. For example, we were well above Wall Street consensus forecasts throughout the nine-quarter U.S. acceleration. Now our forecast for Q4 2018 GDP (set to be reported January 30) is far below … read more...

Shutdown And Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 10:07:16:000

The stock market is ignoring the shutdown. The bond market is, too. So, too, are commodities, currencies, precious metals, fine art and other collectibles, sovereign debt, and many other asset classes. Those markets are moving for other reasons and not federal shutdown. Why? Markets believ… read more...

Why Are Expectations (Sentiment) Changing So Fast?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 09:13:24:000

Expectations of monetary tightening have been changing rapidly, following the swings in the stock market. As the S&P 500 ( SPY ) was making new all-time highs, the expectations of monetary tightening over the upcoming year were as high as 90 basis points, indicating 3-4 more rate hikes we… read more...

Fed Hawks Capitulation, China Stimulus Optimism Drive The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 05:39:01:000

The third week of January 2019 saw the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) rise sharply, buoyed by the capitulation of the Fed's interest rate hike-loving hawks and the actions the Chinese government is taking to stimulate its economy . The following chart shows the trajectory of the S&P 500 d… read more...

S&P 500 To Double In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 03:22:49:000

The S&P 500 is up 6.5% for the year in 2019. The S&P is on pace to double in 2019. That is just not sustainable. We ran this headline last January, S&P To Triple in 2018 , and you know how that turned out. We outperformed our benchmarks because we had less risk on the table last y… read more...

Peter Schiff: The Recession Is A Done Deal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 15:07:50:000

By SchiffGold US stock markets had a strong week last week. The Dow Jones capped it off gaining more than 300 points on Friday. Optimism about a trade deal with China along with increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes buoyed the markets…. read more...

Are Recessions About Employment?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 05:45:11:000

Id say yes, but Nick Rowe disagrees . He recently tweeted an old post from 2015, which ends as follows: Recessions are not about output and employment and saving and investment and borrowing and lending and interest rates and time and uncertainty. The only essential things are a… read more...

China's $1 Trillion Trade Offer Could Be A Game Changer For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 02:21:32:000

(Source: imgflip ) After a brutal December meltdown, in which the stock market ( SPY , DIA , QQQ ) fell about 16% in just three weeks, investors have seen a strong recovery rally over the past month. ^SPX data by YCharts That's thanks to dovish statements from the Fed, a steady st… read more...

Market Elixirs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 20:44:51:000

Since Christmas Eve, global financial markets' sentiment turned and investors embraced a "risk-on mood." In 2018, markets became concerned about global trade, political tensions in Italy, Brexit, the message by the Fed and, recently, the U.S. government shutdown. Combined with a downgrade of e… read more...

Prospects For The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 13:10:07:000

Last year, 2018, the Federal Reserve changed course and, as a consequence, the stock market changed course. For much of the period, beginning with the turnaround from the Great Recession, up until late 2017, the Federal Reserve was intent upon underwriting the economic recovery by creating a… read more...

The Global Economy: Rising Recession Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 07:58:54:000

The danger of a global economic downturn has risen, but the probability of a recession in 2019 is still low. After a brief spurt in 2017 and 2018, growth in the G7 economies is reverting to trend, and emerging markets are unlikely to come to the rescue. This process is likely to be delayed in … read more...

Energy And Tech Weigh On 2019 S&P 500 EPS Estimates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 06:40:37:000

The expected year-over-year growth of the S&P 500 EPS estimate for 2019 has now slowed to +5.5% versus the expected +13.6% as of September 28, 2019. Looking at the change in the expected 2019 earnings growth by sector, Energy seems to have taken the beat down this week, as the sector's e… read more...

Stock Market Margin Debt Plummets Most Since Q4 2008

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 04:27:29:000

Wow, that was fast. Margin calls. During the ugly stock market December, whose ugliness bottomed out on Christmas Eve, a nasty November, and the ugliest October anyone can remember, margin debt plunged by a combined $93.8 billion, the most since Q4 2008, after Lehman Brothers filed for ban… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Stocks Rebound Off The Lows, Patience And Discipline Are The Keys To Success

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 13:14:23:000

Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts and in part on your ability to realize, at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike, that this too, shall pass. - Jack Bogle A quick recap of the last five months shows new highs for… read more...

Government Shutdown: Effects And Implications

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 04:59:20:000

By Michael T. Townsend The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. The partial government shutdown, already the longest on record, is heading for its fifth week with few … read more...

Stocks In 2019: Volatility Is Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-19 04:32:25:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA Volatility is back. It was easy to forget how downside pain in equities could feel given robust growth over the last decade - and especially the two years ending January 2018. Robust corporate profits and a benign interest rate environment meant that prices of ris… read more...

Could 2019 Be Our 'Beetlejuice Year'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 03:28:29:000

Investors have taken out their recession fears on the stock market of late. But are these worries of an economic recession justified? And could the fear itself be self-fulfilling? Kim Parlee talks with Beata Caranci, Chief Economist, TD Read more … read more...

Stock Market Volatility Reflects Systemic Instability

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 03:15:42:000

The post-Christmas stock rally extended through Wednesday as the small-cap and tech stocks led the way, with the Russell 2000 up 14.3% and the Nasdaq up 12.5%. The SPX and Dow are up 10.4% and 10.1% respectively. During the stretch between December 26th and January 17th, the Russell 2000 index… read more...

The Shadow Knows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 01:04:36:000

The Shadow: Orson Welles, 1938 ( Source ) Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows! (Actor Frank Readick, Jr., 1937 radio show The Shadow ) Introduction There has been a fair amount of debate about whether the Fed has raised… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 3K, Better Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 00:37:11:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending January 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,… read more...

McCullough: Investors Live In Fear Of Missing Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 12:48:29:000

Right now, a lot of investors are scared they will miss a major move to the upside, despite the data in front of them indicating the opposite is more probable to occur. As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough recounts from two days of meeting with institutional investors in New York City th… read more...

The January Effect And Stocks' Upside Bias - Buy The Dips

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 05:49:48:000

Stocks came up against a seemingly endless stream of negative news flow through the fall and into the winter of 2018. While several serious risks and threats still feel currently pertinent, another important change has occurred since the turn of the year. Tax-related selling has concluded for … read more...

Equity Values And Business Cycles

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 04:49:49:000

This chart is basically a "Financial Accounts of the US" version of the P/E ratio. Also, here I show corporate debt as a ratio with corporate profit. These are as of the 3rd quarter of 2018. After the recent pullback in equities, while earnings are strong, the P/E ratio (blue) is back to the… read more...

Weekly Edge: Prime Minister May Survives No-Confidence Vote

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 04:40:17:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Poppe On Tuesday, the U.K. parliament overwhelmingly rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan for removing the nation from the EU. There were 432 votes cast against the plan, while only 202 votes were cast in favor of it, according to The W… read more...

Is It Over Yet?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 04:05:15:000

By Jerry Wagner We've now had a 19% decline. That's from one daily closing price to another daily closing price - 9/20/2018 to 12/24/2018. On an intraday high to intraday low, it was a 20.2% decline. Is it over yet? That's more than a 20% decline. That's what we learned was the definitio… read more...

The Worst Possible Environment For Stock Market Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 03:43:46:000

"For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments." - Warren Buffett "My greatest discovery was that a man must study general conditions, to size them so as to be able to a… read more...

Government Shutdown: Melt-Up Or Sucker's Rally?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 13:18:04:000

Start every day off with a smile and get it over with. - W. C. Fields Its good to know markets can actually move in more than one direction, isnt it? Last year, for lack of a better way of saying it, simply sucked. The three major declines of February, Oct… read more...

The Shutdown Begins To Weigh On The Economic Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 07:46:35:000

Will the US government's stalemate over budget negotiations trigger a recession? In "normal" times, this question would be dismissed as absurd. But the times, they are a changin'. The good news is that the latest numbers still indicate that the US macro trend remains positive. As The Capital… read more...

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Set For Moderate Slowdown In Q4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 09:37:34:000

Economic output is still on track to decelerate to a moderately slower pace in the government's fourth-quarter report on gross domestic product ((GDP)) due later this month, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. Today's update reflects a slightly… read more...

Technically Speaking: Bull Or Bear? Comparing Views

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 09:13:06:000

As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and "hope" begins. While earnings expectations have weakened markedly in recent months, the bulls remain steadfast in their belief the market correction is now over. As I discussed in this past… read more...

The Growth Rate Of S&P 500 Dividends Per Share In The 21st Century

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 06:09:04:000

One of the most important and perhaps least well-known metrics for the U.S. stock market is the growth rate of dividends for the S&P 500 , which is why we started a new series to feature it last year. The following chart visualizes the year-over-year growth rate of the S&P 500's… read more...

U.S. Equities: Could 2018 Pain Become 2019 Gain?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 05:48:45:000

By James T. Tierney, Jr., Frank Caruso and Kurt Feuerman With US stocks facing multiple risks, it's easy to lose sight of the positive trends that could help the market recover. In 2019, investors should search for select stocks with the right attributes to produce positive surprises in a … read more...

Key Economic Indicators Are Mostly Positive

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 05:23:51:000

Lots has transpired since equity markets hit their lows the day before Christmas '18. Markets were panicked over a number of things: the shutdown of the federal government, mounting trade tensions with China, slowdowns in the eurozone and Chinese economies, downward revisions to profit forecas… read more...

McCullough: Short S&P 500 As Investors Grow Complacent

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 13:42:03:000

If recent volatility data shows anything, its that investors have reached a level of incredible complacency, according to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. In the video below, McCullough explains why he is short the S&P 500 based largely on the current level of implied volatility… read more...

China And U.S. Negotiation Is Really Also About IP Theft

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 08:04:58:000

Watch Video below to learn more on the China and U.S. trade talks Time is ticking for a trade deal to be done China and the United States ( SPY ), ( DIA ), ( QQQ ) will hold level trade talks in Beijing on Jan. 7-8, 2019. At a summit in Argentina late last year, U.S. President Do… read more...

The S&P 500 And The First Lévy Flight Event Of 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 06:47:51:000

2019 is off to a rollicking start for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ), which appears to have launched into its first Lvy flight event in 2019. If that's not a term you're readily familiar with, here's what that means . A Lvy flight is similar to a random walk for stock prices, bu… read more...

How Have 2019 EPS Estimates Changed For Top 10 S&P 500 Weights?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 06:21:12:000

This table has been posted a few times in the last 14 weeks, but to save readers the trouble, all the previous end periods are included. As of this weekend, of the Top 10 Market Cap weights within the S&P 500 (SPY), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) have shown the highest 2019 EPS revis… read more...

Fear Turns Into Greed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-14 02:13:05:000

Everyone expects the market to find resistance in the 2600-2650 level on the S&P 500, and everyone expects the market to retest its lows from Christmas Eve. When everyone expects something to happen, you can expect something else will happen. The market has moved in a relatively straight… read more...

The Week In Review: Getting Ready For The 2019 Recession?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 15:24:47:000

There is a general downward trend of economic data. Many are forecasting a recession in 2019. I am not convinced that the downward momentum will lead to an economic contraction. This post also reviews the major economic releases issued this past week - although several scheduled releases inclu… read more...

Q4 '18 S&P 500 Earnings Begin This Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 09:02:08:000

At least 22 large-cap Financials report this coming week, and for clients, JPMorgan (JPM) and Charles Schwab (SCHW) are the most important. These positions aren't really traded and have been core holdings for years, and even though the Financial sector looks technically dubious, and didn't r… read more...

Bull Rallies And Market Tops

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 08:38:40:000

Bull Rallies & Market Tops Last week, we discussed the fulfillment of our expectations for a bull rally. While the rally was attributed to the rather "dovish" stance taken by Jerome Powell and commentary from the White House on potential progress on resolving the "trade war" with C… read more...

Market Outlook: Short-Term Momentum And Long-Term Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 04:46:35:000

Market action has been breathtaking over the past several weeks. The S&P 500 crushed to 2,350 on December 24, falling by 20% from its previous highs. After that, we got a fast a furious rebound, recovering almost 10% in a few days and now trading near key resistance levels around 2,600. … read more...

You Can't Debunk MMT

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 00:58:28:000

Back in 2010, I came across Modern Monetary Theory ((MMT)) for the first time and found it somewhat appealing. This is the theory that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez promoted along the way to her meteoric rise to Congress. MMT is a theory of economics that says some pretty controversial stuff - the … read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 17K, Better Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 00:31:25:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending January 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2… read more...

Average Hourly Pay And Benefits In The United States

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 05:39:51:000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been tracking the average pay and benefits earned by American workers in all occupations and working in all industries since at least the first quarter of 2004 1 , where we now have nearly 15 years' worth of data that indicates how much the average civilian… read more...

U.S. Workforce Recovery

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 04:36:29:000

By Jill Mislinski We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include Friday's Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 312K. There were annual revis… read more...

The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - January 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 13:45:55:000

Note: The previous monthly update can be seen in the December 10 article titled, " The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - December 2018 . " There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of a recession. While I dont agree with the methodol… read more...

The Gospel Of Elliott Wave With Avi Gilburt (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 07:00:00:000

A lawyer and accountant by training, long-time Seeking Alpha contributor Avi Gilburt had a long and successful career working on mergers & acquisitions for a nationally recognized law firm before life circumstances forced him to drop everything. Avi's foray into full-time investin… read more...

Expected Equity Market Returns For The Next 10 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 05:57:09:000

What will equity returns be for the next 10 years? "In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine." - Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing. The above quote is both profound and mystifying. Profound in the sense that short-term m… read more...

NFIB Small Business Survey: 'Small Business Optimism Virtually Unchanged As Demand For Workers Remains A Constraint'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 03:22:12:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out on Tuesday morning. The headline number for December came in at 104.4, down 0.4 from the previous month. The index is at the 92nd percentile in this series. The latest number came in above the Investin… read more...

Does The Market Have Legs? Private Equity May Show The Way

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 01:04:05:000

The market is reacting to late-cycle expectations in the credit markets. Widening HY spreads, investors pulling money from leveraged loans and CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations), along with worries of an IG "BBB" downgrade wave are all are weighing heavily on the credit market and increa… read more...

Did The Fed Just End The Bear Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 14:52:34:000

Source: imgflip.com The Fed Just Put An End To The Bear Market The S&P 500/SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY ) dipped into official bear market territory late last year, declining by as much as 20.2% at one point. However, this may turn out to be the shortest-lived b… read more...

The S&P 500's Bear Market Rallies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 05:26:01:000

Bear markets have notorious reputations for stock price volatility, where big daily changes in stock prices are a characteristic that distinguishes bear markets from bull markets. These periods include bear market rallies , which often see outsized upward movements in stock prices that pu… read more...

How Have 2019 S&P 500 EPS And Revenue Estimates Changed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 05:04:31:000

Here is the change in the 2019 S&P 500 "expected" earnings growth by sector the last 7 months. Here is what really surprised me though: check the trends in the S&P 500 revenue estimates since the market peak in late Sept '18: Since the market top in late Sept, the "estimated" 2019 … read more...

The S&P 500 On The Verge Of A Bear Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 05:27:46:000

A bear market is "a condition in which securities prices fall 20 percent or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimsism and negative investor sentiment." By that definition, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) has verged onto the edge of a bear market during the last two weeks, having fallen … read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - January 4, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-07 04:09:20:000

What happened last year. What we're watching for next year. "You can't stop what's coming." - from the movie No Country for Old Men Every one of us knows, in our heart of hearts, that the good times never last forever. Some of us accept this fact and simply ride out the bad … read more...

The Roller Coaster December To Remember

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 15:16:39:000

Last month turned out to be a memorable one for stock market investors, but unforgettable for many of the wrong reasons. Santa Claus left more dark coal than shiny gifts, judging by the -9.2% correction last month in the S&P 500 index, making it the worst December since 1931. Overall, the … read more...

The Roller Coaster December To Remember

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 15:16:39:000

Last month turned out to be a memorable one for stock market investors, but unforgettable for many of the wrong reasons. Santa Claus left more dark coal than shiny gifts, judging by the -9.2% correction last month in the S&P 500 index, making it the worst December since 1931. Overall, the … read more...

Perhaps The Fed Is Not Clueless

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 10:27:30:000

There has been quite a bit of criticism of current Federal Reserve policy in media and certain political circles lately. I have to admit that this article has been inspired by Mr. Cramer's semi-populist rhetoric in regards to the Federal Reserve's policy of raising interest rates, as well as P… read more...

Perhaps The Fed Is Not Clueless

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-05 10:27:30:000

There has been quite a bit of criticism of current Federal Reserve policy in media and certain political circles lately. I have to admit that this article has been inspired by Mr. Cramer's semi-populist rhetoric in regards to the Federal Reserve's policy of raising interest rates, as well as P… read more...

Mathematics And Markets - S&P 500 Index Outlook Per January 3, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 14:15:33:000

(*) the risk/reward threshold applied by Laomedeia equals 0.5 (maximum). Readers could opt for a higher value, which would increase opportunities to enter the market but this would also increase risk exposure. Obviously, choosing a threshold for risk/reward is arbitrary but also directly relat… read more...

Disappointing Earnings Growth Is The Major Risk For The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 09:03:59:000

Having declined from 2,925 on October 3 to 2,351 on December 24 (-19.6%), the S&P 500 posted a solid rebound over the last few days of 2018. The index closed the year at 2,506. Despite this rebound, we still think that the outlook of the U.S. equity markets remains negative. As we indicate… read more...

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Points To Slower Growth In December

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 05:19:33:000

By Robert Hughes The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index from the Institute for Supply Management registered a 54.1 percent reading in December, down 5.2 points from 59.3 in November and the lowest reading since November 2016 (see top chart). December is the 28th month in a row above t… read more...

Absolute Return January 2019 Letter: Potential Pitholes Of 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 04:58:17:000

Original Post The Absolute Return Partners letter for the month of January 2019, titled, "Potential Pitholes Of 2019." A lot of Leave voters say "stop complaining, it's democracy!" Well, democracy doesn't always work. If five people democratically elect to take your iPhone, it's a mug… read more...

Bear Markets, Recessions, And The Arbitrary 20% Decline.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-03 17:36:27:000

Without fail, bull markets accompany economic expansions. Also without fail, both bull and bear markets experience corrections, and these corrections are of varying depths. Bear markets are the opposite of bull markets; the primary-trend is up in bull markets, and down in bear markets. C orr… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - January 3, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-03 10:56:58:000

The BCI at 242.5 is above last week's downward revised 242.3, and remains below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 47.4. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 6.2 is below last weeks 6.7. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (… read more...

The Bear Market Hook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-03 06:18:07:000

Has a Bear Market in Stocks Begun? The stock market correction into late December was of approximately the same size as the mid-2015/early 2016 twin downturns, so this is not an idle question. Moreover, many bears seem quite confident lately from an anecdotal perspective, which may invite a … read more...

Market Remains Overvalued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-03 03:14:41:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio ( more ) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor ( more ) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market… read more...

Peter Schiff: The Bubble Has Popped; The Economy Is Next (Video)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-02 18:40:44:000

By SchiffGold After the worst Christmas Eve in the history of the stock market, the Santa Claus rally came late. Markets bounced back in the short trading week after Christmas. The Dow started with a 1,000-plus point gain, then dropped nearly 600 points the next day, before rallying late t… read more...

January Yield Curve Update: Inching Closer

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-02 13:43:55:000

Still Lonely My last look at the yield curve was titled Wont Anyone Care? Other macro risks were taking center-stage, and it started seeming less important. Then, the day of publication, the 10-2 spread plunged 10 bps to 11 bps. Everyone did care for about five m… read more...

Major Asset Classes December 2018 Performance Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-02 10:15:23:000

Nearly every corner of the financial and commodity markets stumbled in 2018. Except for a modest gain in cash and a flat performance for a broad measure of US investment-grade bonds, last year was awash in red ink. Stocks in emerging markets suffered the biggest retreat among the major asset… read more...

Monthly S&P 500 Outlook For January 2019: The Return Of Fat Tails

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-01 22:03:55:000

But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one. - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional stock… read more...

The Bond Market Is Ruining The Equity Bears' Parade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-31 19:47:40:000

The S&P 500 has declined to an intraday low of 2346 on trading on Monday, December 26. This intraday low is 20.2% off the intraday high of 2940 on the S&P from September 21, 2018. This bear market decline is warranted if there is to be a recession, and therefore, a downturn in corporat… read more...

The Case For Stock Market Intervention

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-31 00:35:00:000

The US equity market has been very volatile and is heading toward a bear market. Some might even conjecture we are moving towards another financial crisis. Amid Donald Trump's attack on the Fed , the uncertainty of the global trade and monetary tightening around major economies, economic grow… read more...

Last S&P 500 Earnings Update Of 2018 - Street Consensus Estimates Are Slow To Change

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-29 08:56:10:000

The attached is a an article from Refinitiv's (the old Thomson Reuters Financial's) David Aurelio on Q4 '18 S&P 500 earnings, as well as what is expected in 2019. (Take a minute to read the short article.) Here are the two important points I took from article: Removing the tax r… read more...

Last S&P 500 Earnings Update Of 2018 - Street Consensus Estimates Are Slow To Change

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-29 08:56:10:000

The attached is a an article from Refinitiv's (the old Thomson Reuters Financial's) David Aurelio on Q4 '18 S&P 500 earnings, as well as what is expected in 2019. (Take a minute to read the short article.) Here are the two important points I took from article: Removing the tax r… read more...

Massive stock rebound may be from $60B pension fund rebalancing: Bloomberg

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-28 12:52:16:000

One theory behind the biggest single-day stock turnaround since 2010 may be pension funds buying up equities after December's meltdown. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF, Financial stocks news, News on ETFs, Read more … read more...

McCullough: Every Economic Cycle Is Different

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-28 11:24:41:000

It may be tempting to compare todays market with something that occurred in the past. But remember, every economic cycle is different. A viewer asked Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on a recent episode of The Macro Show why the U.S. stock market went up in a Quad 3 environment (growth… read more...

2018 Recap And 2019 Stock Market Predictions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-28 05:46:14:000

With 2018 coming to a close and 2019 right around the corner, it's time to take a look at what happened over this past year and what investors can look forward to in the coming year. With that said, let's dive into the recap of 2018 and the outlook of 2019 with some "thin" stock market predi… read more...

The Fed's Frankenstein

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-28 04:40:45:000

"Commentators keep asking why the Fed can't raise rates if the economy is so strong? They still don't realize that the economy was never strong. They confuse a bubble for strength. Without 0% rates and QE the bubble can't survive. But a return to those policies kills the dollar" - Peter Sch… read more...

S&P 500 Sector Trading Range Charts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-28 02:24:51:000

Below is an updated look at our trading range charts for the S&P 500 and ten sectors. It's not a pretty sight. In each chart, the red shading represents overbought territory, while the green shading represents oversold territory. Investors certainly don't have to worry about overbought l… read more...

Wasting The Middle: Obsessing Over Exits

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-28 02:20:35:000

What was the difference between Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers? Well, for one thing, Lehman's failure wasn't a singular event. In the heady days of September 2008, authorities working for any number of initialism agencies were busy trying to put out fires seemingly everywhere. Lehman had to … read more...

No Surprises From Jobless Claims

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-28 01:43:08:000

This week's initial jobless claims data came in without any surprises, and little changed after some large movements only a few weeks ago. Claims came in this week at a seasonally adjusted 216K, down 1k from a revised 217K for the prior week. This is right in line with consensus economist expe… read more...

Can A Bottom Here Be Trusted?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-28 01:16:50:000

Everywhere it seems there is great anticipation for an end to the relentless bloodletting of the last three months in the financial market. Bulls and bears alike are eager to see a bottom, either for the purpose of buying bargains or covering short positions. The debate on Wall Street is wheth… read more...

China As A Leading Indicator And What It's Saying Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 09:46:17:000

Background China assembles high-tech products for Apple ( AAPL ) and others, manufactures other home-grown high-tech products, and exports many other goods. This places it earlier, or higher-up, in the world's supply chain than consumption-driven economies, and suggests it and its markets… read more...

Trump Didn't Cause The Stock Market Downturn

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 06:18:06:000

Warning - This is going to piss half of you off and make the other half think I am a Trumper. Sorry to disappoint all of you in advance. There's been a lot of angst and finger pointing in recent weeks about the downturn in the stock market. The easiest target, and the most vocal, has been … read more...

Will The Pressure On Stocks End In Early 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 06:00:00:000

In February 2018, the stock market experienced its first bought of significant selling since early 2016. A new Chairman of the Federal Reserve and changes in the composition at the FOMC caused concerns to increase that the central bank would take a more hawkish approach to credit in the United… read more...

What Can Investors Expect For 2019 Equity Markets? Major Volatility And High Risk

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 05:55:00:000

Read more … read more...

Peter Schiff: It's Not Just The Stock Market; It's The Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 05:23:26:000

By SchiffGold There was no Santa Claus rally on Christmas Eve. Instead, US stock markets continued to tank. The Dow Jones dropped 653 points. The S&P 500 fell another 2.7% and officially entered into bear territory. It was the worst Christmas Eve on Wall Street in history. The Washing… read more...

Santa Rally? Ho, Ho, Ho

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 05:18:46:000

For those of us who own equities in our retirement funds, the latest dive in stock prices is somewhat disconcerting. However, the question remains: how significant is this weakness for the rest of the economy? I am in the camp that downplays the significance of the information embedded in stoc… read more...

Perfect Storm In The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 01:27:04:000

Unless you have been hiding under a rock, you already know about the recent stock market volatility. Explanations for the recent sell-off abound, and most notably perhaps, the most common themes for the recent sharp correction has been the Fed raising interest rates and Donald Trumps t… read more...

S&P 500 Has Now Corrected 20%, Slightly Worse Than 2011's Drawdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-26 07:51:15:000

The S&P 500 has now corrected 20% peak-to-trough in less than 90 days, and is now roughly the same severity as the 2011 correction - (maybe slightly worse) in the benchmark, which was 19% and which qualifies as the worst drawdown since the 2008 bottom, if memory serves correctly. 2011:… read more...

It's Now Or Never For The Bulls

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 13:13:08:000

In April of this year, I wrote an article discussing the 10 reasons the bull market had ended. "The backdrop of the market currently is vastly different than it was during the 'taper tantrum' in 2015-2016, or during the corrections following the end of QE1 and QE2. In those previous case… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: Bears Instead Of Santa

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 07:43:37:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 closed Christmas Eve with a major correction and bear market instead of a Santa Rally. Today's close was a correction of 19.78% from the closing high. The index closed with a loss of 2.7% from yesterday and 12.79% YTD. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing … read more...

What Makes A Bear Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 05:25:54:000

By Jim Iuorio At a Glance A review of historical bear markets reveals that the stock retreat in 2018 doesn't qualify yet. The most commonly held definition of a "bear market" in stocks is a 20 percent price decline from peak to trough. Although there are several different indexes one… read more...

Stocks Have A Long Way To Fall

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 04:53:08:000

"Once the Treasury Secretary starts to pump the stock market, you know there's a problem" - James Anderson, Silver Doctors / SD Bullion The Central Bank money printing and artificial suppression of interest rates over the last 10 years did a good job of deferring the financial and econom… read more...

No, These Tariffs Have Not Been Good For America

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 04:48:59:000

By Max Gulker Arguments in favor of tariffs usually come in two varieties. The first takes global commerce between millions of individuals and firms and reimagines it as world leaders staring at each other across a chess board. Tariffs are merely a temporary tool to show some imagined oppo… read more...

Chicago Fed: Increase In Growth In November

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 04:25:51:000

By Jill Mislinski "Index points to an increase in economic growth in November." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Ch… read more...

Recession Fears Create S&P 500 Buying Opportunities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 04:20:07:000

The S&P 500 index (NYSEARCA: SPY ) has fallen about 20% from its all-time high in September and is testing the bear market level at 2,352.73, due in part to concerns about U.S. and China trade tensions and fears of an impending U.S. recession. In the past two months, the markets have quick… read more...

It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like A Bear Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 01:30:55:000

Just in time for Christmas, too. Oh, well. No one ever said Mr. Market was a slave to holiday planning. Last week, in fact, running a Hidden Markov model (HMM) on the S&P 500 Index indicated that everyone's favorite US stock market index slipped over to the dark side. To be precise, at… read more...

Powell Disregards Pressure With Another Rate Hike

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-24 14:46:32:000

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell with President Trump looking on. Source: NBC Heading into Wednesday's meeting with Federal Reserve policymakers, Jerome Powell was under pressure from President Trump not to hike rates. He disregarded the noise and hiked rates by a quarter point, intimating mor… read more...

Ladies And Gentlemen, We Have A Black Swan - Version 2.0

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-24 03:05:05:000

Late in the evening of November 8, 2016, I wrote a post, " Ladies and Gentlemen we have a Black Swan ." The Black Swan (unexpected, very rare) was the surprise election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States. This was before the final tally of the vote was in. You may read the en… read more...

Powell Doctrine: Festive 2018 Update And 2019 Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-23 14:32:01:000

Zoologists have just named a new creature, which buries its head in the sand, after President Trump. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell narrowly came in a close second on the list of eponyms. After his performance at the latest FOMC meeting, Mr. Market has graded Chairman Powells parochial… read more...

3 Facts You Need To Know About This Market Meltdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-23 13:00:24:000

(Source: imgflip ) After a bloody October in which stocks fell 7%, it's turning out to be a December to remember, but not in the way investors had hoped. ^SPX data by YCharts Last week three things combined to create a perfect storm of panic, pessimism and high volume selling. T… read more...

No 'Santa Rally' This Year & Why Mainstream Financial Media Does More Harm Than Good (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-23 12:19:12:000

I have been arguing for years that one of the biggest problems with the mainstream financial media is its inherent long bias. In other words, I believe that the mainstream financial media constantly gives the investing public and retail investors the assumption that stocks are always going to … read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Update: S&P 500 Appears Dramatically Oversold

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-23 08:32:02:000

S&P 500 earnings data: (Fwd estimate from IBES by Refinitiv) Fwd 4-qtr est: $169.58 vs. last week's $170.53 PE ratio: 14.25x PEG ratio: 1.92x S&P 500 earnings yield: 7.02% vs. last week's 6.56% Year-over-year growth of fwd est: 7.4% vs. last week's … read more...

A View From The Bottom: Economic Backdrop Not As Bad As Sell-Off Suggests

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-22 14:40:05:000

By Jonathan Coleman, CFA and Scott Stutzman, CFA Portfolio Managers Jonathan Coleman, CFA, and Scott Stutzman, CFA, share their insights on December's market slide, and where they see opportunity after the sell-off. Key Takeaways As of late December, stocks are on pace for their w… read more...

Podcast: Market Volatility - The Factors, Risks And Opportunities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-22 14:27:17:000

By Wylie Tollette, Head of Client Investment Solutions, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions Our emotional reactions can influence our behavior in many ways - including investing. When markets face heightened volatility, many investors start to panic in fear - sometimes to the detrimen… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - December 21, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-22 13:29:48:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. "When you come to a fork in the road, take it." - Yogi Berra The above is one of my favorite Yogi Berra quotes of all time. Not only is it funny, it's also deceptively wise. In fact, I'll even go so far as to say it's very Zen. … read more...

Rationing Rational Rationalizations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-22 13:12:44:000

What is the Greenspan or Fed put? It is an idea, the legend that says the US central bank will only allow a little downside in stocks. The 1929 crash despite being so long ago has been indelibly imprinted upon the machinations of policymakers. Some say they can't see a big slide without the Gr… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Oracles Have Spoken, Can Anything Save The Bulls?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-22 11:34:45:000

"A lot of lies can be told about a stock, but dividends don't lie. In order to increase dividends, a stock must create a history of producing cash. Analysts can lie, earnings can lie, CEOs can lie, but dividends don't lie. A company must increase its actual earnings in order to raise dividen… read more...

Is Everyone Bearish?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-21 12:37:43:000

A 60:40 allocation to passive long-only equities and bonds has been a great proposition for the last 35 years We are profoundly worried that this could be a risky allocation over the next 10." Sanford C. Bernstein & Company Analysts (January 2017) Bull markets are born on… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Yield At 6.88%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-21 03:06:20:000

The S&P 500 Earnings Yield is at 6.88% as of Thursday, December 20 th , 2018. The 6.88% level is now above the highs from the 2015-2016 correction but still well below the 8-9% hit during the 2011 20% drop in the S&P 500. The forward estimate slid a little this week from Monday's $17… read more...

Oil Prices Drop; Bond Yields Drop; And Stock Prices Show Big Drop From Today's Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 18:26:41:000

Oil prices continued a precipitous slide to a fresh one-year low on Tuesday, weighed down by concerns over global growth and uncertainty over the impact of production cuts from major exporters. So writes Stephanie Young and Amrith Ramkumar in the Wall Street Journal . This… read more...

Oil Prices Drop; Bond Yields Drop; And Stock Prices Show Big Drop From Today's Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 18:26:41:000

Oil prices continued a precipitous slide to a fresh one-year low on Tuesday, weighed down by concerns over global growth and uncertainty over the impact of production cuts from major exporters. So writes Stephanie Young and Amrith Ramkumar in the Wall Street Journal . This… read more...

Oil Prices Drop; Bond Yields Drop; And Stock Prices Show Big Drop From Today's Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 18:26:41:000

Oil prices continued a precipitous slide to a fresh one-year low on Tuesday, weighed down by concerns over global growth and uncertainty over the impact of production cuts from major exporters. So writes Stephanie Young and Amrith Ramkumar in the Wall Street Journal . This… read more...

Here's Why Stocks Could Be Headed A Lot Lower From Here

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 17:24:15:000

Source: MetalsNews.com Heres Why Stocks Could Be Headed Lower From Here The economic atmosphere surrounding the S&P 500/SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) has turned decisively more bearish in recent weeks. In addition to various concerns, many valuations are still extremely elev… read more...

Here's Why Stocks Could Be Headed A Lot Lower From Here

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 17:24:15:000

Source: MetalsNews.com Heres Why Stocks Could Be Headed Lower From Here The economic atmosphere surrounding the S&P 500/SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) has turned decisively more bearish in recent weeks. In addition to various concerns, many valuations are still extremely elev… read more...

Here's Why Stocks Could Be Headed A Lot Lower From Here

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 17:24:15:000

Source: MetalsNews.com Heres Why Stocks Could Be Headed Lower From Here The economic atmosphere surrounding the S&P 500/SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) has turned decisively more bearish in recent weeks. In addition to various concerns, many valuations are still extremely elev… read more...

S&P 500: We Got Our Cycles Wrong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 14:40:41:000

We stated back on the 27th of November that it was only the beginning for the S&P as we believed there was a large rally coming. We had a daily swing low at the end of November which was higher than the previous October lows. In earnest, we believed the October lows at that point would m… read more...

S&P 500: We Got Our Cycles Wrong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 14:40:41:000

We stated back on the 27th of November that it was only the beginning for the S&P as we believed there was a large rally coming. We had a daily swing low at the end of November which was higher than the previous October lows. In earnest, we believed the October lows at that point would m… read more...

S&P 500: We Got Our Cycles Wrong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 14:40:41:000

We stated back on the 27th of November that it was only the beginning for the S&P as we believed there was a large rally coming. We had a daily swing low at the end of November which was higher than the previous October lows. In earnest, we believed the October lows at that point would m… read more...

A Brief History Of The S&P 500 Earnings Yield

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 04:17:31:000

Saturday's blog post declared that the S&P 500's "earning yield" as of Friday, December 14's close, was the highest since early January '16. Here is a brief history of the earnings yield over the last 3 years: The EY spiked to 6.52% in late October '18, closing the week of 10/26/18… read more...

A Brief History Of The S&P 500 Earnings Yield

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 04:17:31:000

Saturday's blog post declared that the S&P 500's "earning yield" as of Friday, December 14's close, was the highest since early January '16. Here is a brief history of the earnings yield over the last 3 years: The EY spiked to 6.52% in late October '18, closing the week of 10/26/18… read more...

A Brief History Of The S&P 500 Earnings Yield

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 04:17:31:000

Saturday's blog post declared that the S&P 500's "earning yield" as of Friday, December 14's close, was the highest since early January '16. Here is a brief history of the earnings yield over the last 3 years: The EY spiked to 6.52% in late October '18, closing the week of 10/26/18… read more...

Evolving Expectations For The S&P 500 Nearing The End Of 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-17 10:04:57:000

As we enter the final full week for trading in 2018, we find that S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) investors appear to be splitting their forward-looking attention between the first and third quarters of the new year in setting today's stock prices. We believe the reason for this split is two-fold… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - December 14, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-16 06:40:22:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. "You can observe a lot just by watching." - Yogi Berra It's so easy to get caught up in the drama that the stock market creates. And that's why I try as best I can to stick to the facts. Every Wall Street strategist has a predic… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Yield Now The Highest Since January 2016

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-16 02:19:51:000

The SP 500 is down roughly 10% - 11% from its late September '18 high and yet market bearishness is the highest in 6 years? Here is the SP 500 earnings data: (Source IBES by Refinitiv) Fwd 4-qtr est: $170.53 vs last weeks $171.05 PE ratio: 15x PEG ratio: 1.9x SP 5… read more...

Updating 2019 Earnings For Top 10 S&P 500 Companies And Top 10 Financial Positions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-15 08:50:20:000

This was a relevant post by David Templeton of Horan Capital Advisors this week. I thought it was best addressed by doing a quick spreadsheet on updating the EPS estimates for the top 10 market cap weights in the S&P 500, and because Financials and Transports have endured a couple of bru… read more...

Will S&P 500 Earnings Roll Over, Or Will The S&P 500 Rally From Here?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 01:39:50:000

That is the whole dynamic in one simple sentence. 2019 S&P 500 earnings expectations have been expecting slower growth for some time but now that expected earnings growth for next year has been reduced to 8%. Transports look ugly, made more so by the action in XPO (XPO), the trucking… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - December 13, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-13 10:49:24:000

The BCI at 247.1 is below last week's 248.3, and remains below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 78.0. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.7, is below last weeks 10.5. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop b… read more...

Multiple Jobholders: Over 2 Decades Of Trends As Of November

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-11 07:09:20:000

By Jill Mislinski What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has two decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of Table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households. At present, multiple jobhol… read more...

The Ratio Of Part-Time Employed: November 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-11 06:59:25:000

By Jill Mislinski Let's take a close look at the latest employment report numbers on Full- and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government's Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrar… read more...

2019 Market Outlook: U.S. Stocks And Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-10 13:29:13:000

By Liz Ann Sonders Animal spirits sustainable? U.S. economic growth was strong in 2018, but some of the forces behind that strength were either short term or likely to fade going forward. We expect U.S. economic growth to slow in 2019, with the risk of a recession rising. Trade friction,… read more...

How Have Q4 '18 EPS And Revenue Estimates Changed This Quarter For The S&P 500?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-09 21:33:53:000

Rather than put the summary at the bottom as is usually done, the important observations from the data from both FactSet and IBES by Refinitiv data are found at the top this week: Strength in Energy estimates is still amazing. Crude oil fell 22% in November and "expected" Energy earnings a… read more...

Looking At S&P 500 Bottom-Up Estimate Revisions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-09 09:38:29:000

Using IBES by Refinitiv data, the weekly changes in bottom-up earnings estimates for companies within the S&P 500 are monitored for estimate changes. The spreadsheet tracks the IBES data by week so that it can be monitored for changes in overall trends within the S&P 500's 11 secto… read more...

November Jobs Report Disappoints

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-09 08:30:47:000

By Robert Hughes U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 155,000 jobs in November, below the consensus expectation of 200,000. The prior two months were revised downward by a combined 12,000, putting the October gain at 237,000 and the September increase at 119,000. Private payrolls added 161,000 in N… read more...

Surging Federal Expenditures, Collapsing Tax Revenue... These Are Not Typically Signs Of A Strong Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-09 08:19:09:000

Typically, in times of strong economic activity, tax revenues rise and federal government spending is flat or even declines. Times of economic weakness (usually recognized as recessions) see the opposite. The chart below shows the year-over-year change (quarterly basis) in federal government e… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - December 7, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-08 15:28:49:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. "It just keeps getting worser and worser." - paraphrasing Alice in Wonderland We have now given up all of the gains we made in 2018, and all of the gains from the last 12 months. As I've said before, it's not only the money that… read more...

All The S&P 500 Has Given Back Is The 3rd Quarter 2018 Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-08 13:45:40:000

Even though the 10-year Treasury yield fell 15 bps on the week, from 3% to 2.85%, the "forward 4-quarter" estimate rose $0.04 sequentially, ending the week at $171.05, up from $171.01. What's unusual about the sequential increase of $0.04 is that it was the first sequential increase in the S… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: November Nonfarm Employment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-08 13:29:48:000

By Jill Mislinski Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their metho… read more...

Equity Opportunities Abound, But Market Changes May Be Healthy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-08 08:39:31:000

By Evan Bauman, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager, ClearBridge Investments Q: How does the equity market environment now compare to three months ago, in September? A: It is an interesting time. Early August was a very different market environment. The S&P pretty much al… read more...

U.S. Labor Department Payrolls Report: Trend Outlook (November 2018)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-07 02:10:02:000

Hiring growth slowed in November among US companies, according to Thursday morning's update of the ADP Employment Report . Payrolls increased 179,000 last month, down from 225,000 in October. As expected , the annual pace of growth also ticked lower - just barely - although rounding the year… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 4K, Worse Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-07 00:30:00:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending December 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,0… read more...

Jobless Claims Fall Off Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-07 00:23:43:000

Falling off of their six-month high from last week, this morning's report on jobless claims showed a decrease from 234K last week to 231K this week. A much stronger decline to 225K had been expected. While claims are down for the week, they remain at elevated levels. That is to say, elevated… read more...

How Worried Should You Be About A Yield Curve Inversion?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 10:31:22:000

We would like to preface this article by saying that while the analysis of markets is a multi-faceted and multi-dimensional study, this article will examine simply one of those dimensions: the yield curve and its correlation/impact on financial markets. As such, this analysis isn't the answer … read more...

The Steep Stock Market Sell-Off Doesn't Make Sense

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-05 19:20:31:000

The S&P 500 ( SPY ) has entered a period of volatility, and the recent sell-off on December 4 serves as a reminder of how quickly and suddenly the stock market's landscape can change on day-to-day basis. But still the economy remains healthy, and earnings growth for 2019 still look strong … read more...

Why The Fed Won't Raise Rates In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-05 14:17:16:000

The bond market continues to tell us that the Fed should stop raising interest rates. The 10-year US Treasury ( TLT ) rate has fallen below 3%. Meanwhile, the 10-year minus the 2-year Treasury rate has dropped to just ten basis points and is nearing inversion. Rates on the long-end of the curv… read more...

ADP Employment Report: Trend Outlook (November 2018)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-05 07:33:04:000

Thursday's release of ADP's estimate of US private payrolls for November looks set to deliver another sign that US economic activity has peaked. The projected year-over-over increase (due on December 6) still aligns with a healthy pace of jobs creation, but the mild deceleration trend appears … read more...

Countdown To The 34th S&P 500 Death Cross - Update 12/4/2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-04 11:48:52:000

In our article, The S&P 500 Death Cross - Time To Panic? , we analyzed the markets after a Death Cross, that is when the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 crosses its 200-day moving average. We now face the 34 th Death Cross in the first or second week of December. After the rec… read more...

When The Wrong Conclusions Can Spell Disastrous Resolutions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-04 02:29:14:000

If one perused the mainstream business/financial media sources for headlines on the concluding G-20 summit looking for details, one thing is pretty hard to miss: there really aren't many. All you'll find is something akin to "a cease fire" followed by some rumination about how both sides (U…. read more...

Got Stocks? And Heartburn?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-04 01:54:14:000

More upset seems likely. These are definitely nerve-wracking times for stock investors. Last week was particularly trying, as the chart below illustrates. Can't see what I'm talking about? Zoom into the upper right corner and you may be able to detect the red line crossing below the blu… read more...

State Of The Economy 16: The Fed Likely Just Started The Next Stock Market Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-03 10:52:00:000

(Source: imgflip ) Note that due to reader requests, I've decided to break up my weekly portfolio updates into three parts: commentary, economic update, portfolio summary/stats/watch lists. This is to avoid excessively long articles and maximize the utility to my readers. This week's … read more...

Back In The Box With The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-03 08:39:02:000

The fourth and final week of November 2018 saw the S&P 500 return back to the box, so to speak, as investors shifted their forward-looking attention back toward 2019-Q1 in setting current day stock prices. The "box," of course, being the red-zone indicated in our spaghetti forecast chart… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: 9 Straight Weeks With S&P 500 Earnings Yield Over 6%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-02 07:03:37:000

On downward earnings revisions to the S&P 500: From John Butters at FactSet, November 30, 2018: "During the first two months of the fourth quarter, analysts lowered earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the quarter. The Q4 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an agg… read more...

U.S.: As Good As It Gets?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-01 14:17:57:000

By James Knightley, Chief International Economist Strong economy, for now Ten years on from the global financial crisis and it is safe to say that the US has come out in a far stronger position than most other major economies. Output is up 23% from the 2009 trough, while there are ov… read more...

The Yield Curve Is Not Forecasting A Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-01 12:41:12:000

By now, most anyone who keeps up with financial matters knows that a flat or inverted Treasury yield curve is a good predictor of an impending recession. I've blogged extensively on this subject for almost 10 years. Recently, a few industrious pundits have found evidence that the front end… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: November Up 1.8%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-01 04:01:56:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 closed November up 1.79% from last month. The index started the week relatively flat and then jumped on Wednesday to end the week up 4.84% from last Friday. It is up 0.81% from yesterday and 2.38% YTD. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-y… read more...

A Jumpy Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-30 06:15:00:000

Volatility is an investor's nightmare, but it can be the Garden of Eden for a nimble trader. Since early October, the bull market in equities has given way to a rocky road where optimism and pessimism change places each day sending the price of stocks higher and lower. Wider trading ranges hav… read more...

A 'Where Are We Now' Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-30 02:23:34:000

As I stated earlier , the reason why I've been updating my observances of the "markets" is because I believe we are quite possibly on the precipice of what could turn into a very extreme situation, not only rivaling anything we've seen this year but since the original '08 crisis. So, with t… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 10K

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-30 00:15:42:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 2… read more...

Strong Economy Helped U.S. Stocks In The Third Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-29 06:39:23:000

The third quarter of 2018 was the best-performing quarter for many stock markets this year. A strong U.S. economy, healthy corporate fundamentals and tax cuts powered stocks higher through multiple periods of trade, political, interest rate and international uncertainty. Economic growth was … read more...

You Might Like To Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-29 05:29:20:000

It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics. - Claudio Borio , Bank for International Settlements In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing Americas balance sheet - we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the… read more...

Uninsurable Risk?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-29 05:19:52:000

By Jerry Wagner Our hearts go out to those residents of California who have had to deal with either the loss of those dear to them or their homes, or who have had to evacuate in the face of the terrible fires that have ravaged the state once again this year. I'm sure gifts to the American … read more...

When The Fear Of Missing Out Shifts To Just Plain Fear

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-29 03:20:03:000

Read more … read more...

Fed In A Box

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-28 13:53:30:000

The financial markets are driven by interest rates . And the Federal Reserve plays a key role in setting the level of interest rates. Below I will explain why the Federal Reserve might be facing a Catch-22 and what an interest rate move might signal about economic growth. President Trump … read more...

Fall 2018 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-27 19:50:09:000

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings. The earnings outlook for the S&P 500 has darkened since … read more...

None Of The Classic Bear Symptoms Are Visible

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-27 13:08:28:000

One truly remarkable aspect of the recent market correction is how quick many analysts have been to throw in the towel on the bull market. More than a few market commentators have gone on record to proclaim the start of a bear market. But as well discover in todays report, this… read more...

The S&P 500 In The Week When Apple's Future Dimmed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-26 06:00:47:000

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful." Those are the immortal words of statistician George E.P. Box, which underlie every bit of serious analysis that seeks to approximate real-world processes and outcomes with math. Including our own. What keeps models useful is to r… read more...

U.S. Federal Reserve: A Time To Introspect?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-25 20:31:53:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Prakriti Shukla as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more The US Fe… read more...

President Trump-Induced U.S Government Shutdown: Impact Assessment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-25 19:57:04:000

The purpose of this report is to examine the impact of a U.S government shutdown on private asset markets. The method used to produce this analysis is the balance of sectoral flow model after the work of Professor Wynne Godley. The threat of a U.S. government shutdown is once again upon us. … read more...

Why I Think This Sell-Off Is Just One Step In A Methodical Unwind Of Stock Prices

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-25 04:32:07:000

One after the other, individual stocks are getting crushed It was an ugly Monday and Tuesday followed by a Wednesday that at first looked like a real bounce but ended with the indices giving up their gains. This was followed, mercifully, by Thursday when markets were closed, which was follow… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Just The Facts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-24 09:55:29:000

For the Week: The S&P 500 dropped 3.8% (down 1.5% y-t-d), and the Dow fell 4.4% (down 1.8%). The Utilities declined 1.4% (up 1.4%). The Banks lost 2.3% (down 8.1%), and the Broker/Dealers fell 2.8% (down 3.1%). The Transports declined 2.0% (down 2.3%). The S&P 400 Midcaps dropped 2.2… read more...

In A Booming Economy, You Buy And Build Houses

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-24 08:49:15:000

We can add realtors to the list of those who are angry with Jay Powell. The housing market continued its perplexing slump in October, according to a broad section of data encompassing everything from construction to sales of existing homes. We have been told since Economics 101 that the centra… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Update: Street Still Expecting 9-10% S&P 500 Earnings Growth In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-24 03:49:48:000

With the third quarter in the books for the most part, the 28% y/y earnings growth for the S&P 500 (per IBES by Refinitiv) will be the strongest rate of earnings growth for the key benchmark since - well - the spreadsheet goes all the way back to the fourth quarter of 2011 and nothing come… read more...

BAML's early 2019 outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-23 08:35:24:000

In an earlier preview of 2019 strategy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch says the firm is Overweight the healthcare, technology, financial, industrials and utilities (from Underweight) sectors. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, Vanguard S&P 5… read more...

These Correlations Imply Higher Equity Prices Are Coming To A Market Near You

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-23 02:37:43:000

It is a widely-known fact that correlation is not causation. However, correlation is useful when developing probabilities about the future. When variables correlate on a historically-repetitive basis, it provides a picture of the most likely future. In this piece, we present three correlat… read more...

Low Level Of Bullishness Means Equity Market Market Bottom May Be Near

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 23:47:26:000

Investor sentiment continues a trend of turning less bullish. Today's Sentiment Survey report from the American Association of Individual Investors noted individual investor bullish sentiment decline 9.8 percentage points to 25.3%. Neutral sentiment declined 1.3 percentage points, with the r… read more...

Enter Santa Man

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 07:20:36:000

Christmas lights Silent night Take my hand We're off to winter wonderland - Enter Santa Man, Santa Flavious & Joshua The Elf, 2017 An unforgiving autumn . U.S. stock investors have been stirred once again in recent weeks from their prolonged monetary stimu… read more...

Michigan Consumer Sentiment: November Final Down Slightly From October

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 05:02:21:000

By Jill Mislinski The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 97.5, down 1.1 from the October Final reading. Investing.com had forecast 98.4. Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments: Consumer sentiment has rema… read more...

Finally Closing The Book On Harvey And Irma, Opening A New Economic Chapter To?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 04:55:33:000

I, for one, am sick of still writing about 2017's tropical season. It's been well more than a year, and yet, we are just now finally moving past them. It would've been healthier and more honest had there been more appreciation for what they really were going to do for/to the US economy. With… read more...

Consumer Comfort Slowing But Still Very Strong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 04:47:21:000

Bloomberg 's weekly consumer comfort data released on Wednesday morning at 61.3. Consumer comfort is still very close to cycle highs (61.6), but over the past couple of months - during the time markets have been selling off - it hasn't not been steadily moving higher as it did for most of the… read more...

U.S.: Signs Of A Slowdown?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 01:25:12:000

By James Knightley , Chief International Economist at ING Headwinds are intensifying The US economy has performed really well this year, with a robust jobs market and massive tax cuts helping to generate the strongest year of GDP growth since 2005. But maintaining this momentum in 2… read more...

Let's Talk Turkey: Thanksgiving Seasonality In Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-21 05:00:34:000

This is a slightly edited version of the note I sent to my Talon Advisors clients this weekend. There is always a lot of discussion about seasonality at the end of the year. This is a troublesome topic. On one hand, there are reasons why seasonality should work: portfolio managers square… read more...

A Country Is Not Like A For-Profit Company

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-20 09:48:27:000

By Donald J. Boudreaux Every line of reasoning begins with premises. Many premises are so obvious that we accept them unconsciously. When your physician prescribes medicine, you understand that her advice is premised on a desire to improve your health. Other premises are consciously chosen… read more...

The Week Ahead In U.S. Markets - The Housing Market Will Take Center Stage

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 19:28:38:000

The week in review Over the last week the most important economic indication came from the CPI data for October. In line with consensus expectations, the headline CPI rose 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. It is a rebound from the 2.3% y/y posted in September, but the data is still below the highest le… read more...

The Weekly Bull Bear Market Stats

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 18:21:42:000

The Weekly Bull Bear Market stats from G-stock is a quantitative screening of market parameters to present an edge for bull or bear for the coming week(s). G-stock has for almost a year posted articles called Weekly Insider Trading, ( latest post can be found here ), which is a quantitative … read more...

October Hangs Around In November In 2018 In The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 07:36:00:000

There is lots of finger pointing these days as the stock market stopped making record highs and has entered a corrective period. Higher interest rates triggered the selloff, but other issues are weighing on the prices of shares. The ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China has been a w… read more...

Changing Expectations And The S&P 500 In Week 2 Of November 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 05:59:40:000

Seven trading days into our redzone forecast for the S&P 500, and so far it's holding, with the closing value of the S&P 500 (SPX) falling within our target range on six of seven of those days. The trajectory of the S&P 500 has also been consistent with our unadjusted standard m… read more...

A Stronger Hull, But Open Sails

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 00:35:37:000

By Erik Knutzen, Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Class If recession clouds don't break on a 12-month horizon, there could be upside in the markets. Joe Amato, Brad Tank and I all agree that " volatility is back, for good reason ." There is more than enough uncertainty around to … read more...

Critical Week Ahead - Year-End Rally In Sight?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 00:26:52:000

This pattern was noted a couple of times in the last week on Twitter so I thought Callum Thomas's chart should be highlighted for readers: The quarter is half over as of Friday. The final 6 weeks of the year are upon us. Let's see if we get the year-end rally. Weekly Earnings Update: IBE… read more...

Bear Market Growls As Market Remains Weak

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-18 14:07:47:000

Bear Market Growl Grows Louder Several months ago, I penned an article about the problems with "passive indexing" and specifically the problem of the "algorithms" that are driving roughly 80% of the trading in the markets. To wit: "When the 'robot trading algorithms' begin to reverse (… read more...

Post-Election Perspectives

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-18 11:25:25:000

By John P. Calamos, Sr. Now that midterm elections are in the rearview mirror, what are the implications for markets and investors? Markets hate uncertainty and with midterms wrapped up, there's one less uncertainty on the list. As Figure 1 shows, markets have advanced in every year follow… read more...

GE May Be Canary In Credit Market's Coal Mine

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-17 13:02:10:000

By Breakingviews General Electric (GE) may be the canary in the credit market's coal mine. The company's bonds tanked this week even as an asset sale briefly lifted its shares. That's a warning shot for all debt investors. U.S. companies owe more money than ever, and the quality of their l… read more...

S&P 500 Top 10 Weights - How Have 2019 EPS Estimates Trended?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-17 07:50:14:000

The Top 10 weights in the S&P 500 constitute roughly 22% of the S&P 500 by market cap as of Friday, November 16th, 2016, and thus a substantial portion of the index. To try and get some reality around the negative financial media and the ad hoc commentary around S&P 500 earnings,… read more...

When Will The Global Slowdown Hit Bottom?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-16 12:22:07:000

Remember when virtually every single market pundit was all bulled up on Emerging Markets and its ilk at the beginning of the year? We do. Because we were warning our subscribers exactly the opposite. Look around the world. Asia, Europe and Emerging Markets have all been in a synchronized… read more...

S&P 500 Falls Out Of Order

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-16 08:10:40:000

Earlier this year, we marked the occasion when a relative period of order appeared to end in the S&P 500 and a new period of chaos seemed set to take hold in the market. We say "appeared to end" because order returned to the S&P 500, where a stable relationship between the daily cl… read more...

Institutional And Individual Investors More Bearish On Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-16 07:29:38:000

At the end of October, the American Association of Individual Investors reported individual investor bullish sentiment was 28.0%, one standard deviation below the bullishness average. Sentiment measures are contrarian ones and are most actionable at their extremes. October's reading was cert… read more...

Individual Investors Showing Uncertainty

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-16 00:31:32:000

The weekly AAII survey released this morning showed the first downtick in bullish sentiment (41.28% down to 35.09%) in three weeks. Given the weakness in the broader equity market, the move lower in bullish sentiment is completely understandable. As equity prices have fallen over the pas… read more...

Bespoke's Sector Trading Range Charts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-15 01:42:00:000

Below is an updated look at our trading range charts for the S&P 500 and its major sectors (Real Estate not included). In each chart, the light blue shading represents the sector's "normal" trading range, which is one standard deviation above and below the 50-day moving average (white line… read more...

Which Observation Is Not Like The Others: U.S. Inward FDI Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 05:39:16:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on November 13, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . Plotting nominal dollar value of inward FDI understates the collapse in inflows. Here is the ratio to GDP and - considering how FDI covaries with the stock market's level - the real S&P 5… read more...

U.S. Stock Market - Re-Coupling With A Panic Cycle?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 19:28:20:000

By Pater Tenebrarum The Mighty Gartman Investment newsletter writer Dennis Gartman (a.k.a. "the Commodities King") has been a target of ridicule at ZeroHedge for a long time. His pompous style of writing and his uncanny ability to frequently make perfectly mistimed short-term market call… read more...

Get Ready, Santa Claus Is Coming To Town

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 17:42:28:000

Source: Greenland-Travel.com 5 Reasons Santa Claus Is Likely Coming To Town Its been a rough several weeks for the stock market. In fact, the S&P 500/SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) is still going through a substantial correction full of fear, negativity, and even a healthy do… read more...

The Big Fallacy Is That  Economic Growth Will Eliminate The Federal Deficit

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 10:31:43:000

How many times have we heard the following justification for government deficits? Government deficits resulting from tax cuts will be paid off over time through accelerated economic growth. We heard this from the Reagan administration in the 1980s. We heard this from the Trump administrati… read more...

U.S. Economic Output Running Well Above Potential GDP Estimate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 07:52:55:000

The recent run of strong growth in GDP is welcome news, but from the perspective of policymakers, there are signs that the economy may be approaching its maximum output capacity. In turn, this analysis provides the Federal Reserve with another reason to continue squeezing monetary policy. Co… read more...

SPY Broken Arrow Needs Fixing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 05:47:17:000

The SPY uptrend arrow shown on the chart below is broken once again. Will this bounce upwards continue in the weeks to come? It has its work cut out for it, as this bounce faces two major resistance levels. It just pulled back from the first test. I expect the bounce to continue this week … read more...

1 In 54 Chance Of U.S. Recession Starting Before November 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 04:37:57:000

The U.S. Federal Reserve boldly took no action to increase short-term interest rates in the U.S. at the conclusion of its November 7-8, 2018, meeting, leaving them at their current target rate of 2.00-2.25%, the level to which it had set them back in September 2018 . The risk that the U.S… read more...

Cannabis Investors, Proceed With Caution

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-12 14:25:05:000

JUST HOW INVESTIBLE IS THE CANNABIS SECTOR? Thats one of the key questions addressed by our Cannabis analyst Shayne Laidlaw in this video. FYIHedgeye officially launched our new Cannabis research sector earlier this month. Laidlaw provides a brief recap of our analyst… read more...

Redemption D-Day For Hedge Funds And Dancing Dollars: Thoughts On Monday

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-12 11:13:42:000

Over the weekend, I penned something for this platform called " Here Are 3 Things Keeping Bullish Investors Awake At Night ". As the title suggests, that was basically just a summary of the trio of factors that together serve as a counterpoint to the idea that stocks are set up for a squeez… read more...

Celebrating The End Of The 2018 Midterm Election In The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-12 05:15:18:000

The big news last week, aside from the U.S. midterm elections, which apparently are still going on in some places, was the stock market's response to the return of political gridlock on Capitol Hill, where stock prices rallied strongly enough on the day after the election that they completed t… read more...

The Fed Stays The Course On Interest Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-12 04:25:39:000

(Source: Reuters/Joshua Roberts) The Federal Reserve stayed the course on interest rates last week. Given strong economic activity, more rate hikes could be ahead in December or in 2019. Below is a synopsis of the Fed's comments and my interpretation. Fed's Comments In view of realize… read more...

Easy Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-12 00:08:47:000

Clients are asking what happens next and what they should do about it. Here are some excerpts from an interview Howard Marks did last month on his book tour. I believe it explains the process and what to do next very well. What can investors do to make better investment decisions? … read more...

Do We See P/E Expansion Or P/E Contraction In 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-11 04:59:21:000

A little more discussion on 2019 S&P 500 EPS estimates and looking into next year. Staying away from sector estimates for now. How have 2019 "bottom-up" annual EPS estimates tracked for the S&P 500 over 2018? Readers should see both the "dollar" S&P 500 EPS estimates for the ne… read more...

Here Are 3 Things Keeping Bullish Investors Awake At Night

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-10 13:07:05:000

I wanted to take a few minutes on Saturday morning to remind readers here that calls for a "tactical rally" are not the same as fundamentals-based arguments for a longer-term bullish thesis. Earlier this week, I penned something for this platform called, " The Pros Are Predicting An Imminent… read more...

Converging Labor Trends

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-10 09:48:02:000

It was a forgettable moment. The Federal Reserve's Chairman at the time, Janet Yellen, was asked about a key economic statistic and she just couldn't come up with it. In September 2016, Yellen was on Capitol Hill to testify as she usually did about how things were surely getting better. Rep. F… read more...

How Have 2019 S&P 500 Earnings Growth Estimates Changed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-10 02:59:58:000

Walmart (WMT) officially ends the Q3 '18 earnings season this week, with its report Thursday morning. Looking ahead to next year and to answer the headline question directly, "Not Much" is probably the best answer. Let's look at the data (Source: IBES by Refinitiv). With the exception of… read more...

Red Or Blue... Investors See Green?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-09 03:22:13:000

By Ryan Poirier, FRM With the election now history, investors can focus on the rest of the year with one less uncertainty. But what can they expect from the market going into the new year? Historical returns of the S&P 500 following a midterm election are significantly higher in compar… read more...

Initial Claims Hold Near-Record Lows, While Consumer Credit Growth Slows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-09 02:15:29:000

By Robert Hughes The latest data on new filings for unemployment insurance suggest the labor market remains tight. Data from the Employment and Training Administration within the Department of Labor show initial claims for new unemployment insurance were down 1,000 for the week of November… read more...

The Midterm Results Are In, But What Do They Mean For Markets?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-09 01:55:34:000

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist and Arnab Das, Global Market Strategist, EMEA on November 7, 2018, in Market & Economic Assessing the impact of the US midterm elections on four key areas. Going into Tuesday's midterm elections, our base-case scen… read more...

Post-Election Economic Forecast: Political Gridlock Will Be Good For Business

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-09 00:11:46:000

The economy will do well with government control divided between Democrats and Republicans. I didn't always believe this, but a decade ago, I was persuaded by the late economist William A. Niskanen. "Our federal government may work better (well, less badly) when at least one house of Congress … read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 23:31:18:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending November 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,0… read more...

Jobless Claims Inline With Expectations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 22:44:49:000

Jobless claims came in right inline with expectations this morning, falling from 215K last week to 214K. With this week's report, claims have now been at or below 300K for a record 192 straight weeks, at or below 250K for 57 straight weeks, and at or below 225K for 18 straight weeks. The fou… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - November 8, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 10:16:05:000

The BCI at 248.6 is above last week's level of 247.7, but remains below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 90.0. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 11.7, is below last weeks 12.2. Both BCIp and BCIg do not signaling a recession. (BCIp nee… read more...

Weekly Edge: Markets Smile As Midterms Conclude

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 05:03:40:000

By Troy Tanzy It is no secret that investors don't like uncertainty. When uncertainty looms over the outcome of major events, investors become wary and stocks fall accordingly. When the events are over and the uncertainty is removed, markets and investors tend to respond favorably. On Tu… read more...

Market Remains Overvalued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-06 05:00:19:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio ( more ) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor ( more ) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market… read more...

Market Remains Overvalued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-06 05:00:19:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio ( more ) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor ( more ) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market… read more...

The S&P 500, The Fed And A Smoking Gun In October 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-06 04:09:30:000

Expectations about the future of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve played an outsized role in setting stock prices during the month of October 2018. If you recall, back at the beginning of the month, investors were largely focused on 2019-Q1 in setting stock prices, where the… read more...

The S&P 500, The Fed And A Smoking Gun In October 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-06 04:09:30:000

Expectations about the future of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve played an outsized role in setting stock prices during the month of October 2018. If you recall, back at the beginning of the month, investors were largely focused on 2019-Q1 in setting stock prices, where the… read more...

Sector ETF Week In Review For October 29-November 2

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-05 12:30:08:000

Lets begin where we always do: performance tables, beginning with the one-week timeframe: This was a good week for the market. Basic materials rose 6.1%; financials were up 4.43%; discretionary stocks rose 4.41%. In the current environment, I attribute extreme gains in the basic ma… read more...

Headlines Drive Market Volatility - October 2018 Market Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-05 11:38:52:000

Data Source: Bloomberg Headlines Drive Negative Market Performance Source: istockphoto Has the U.S. growth story reverted to a pure rear-view perspective as investors focus more on negative headlines? Efficient market theorists believe well-functioning markets process all publi… read more...

Analysts size up U.S. election scenarios

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-05 08:38:51:000

Height Capital Markets issues its last election forecast before tomorrow's voting in the U.S. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, News on the U.S. economy, News on ETFs, Read more … read more...

The World's Smartest Investors Can't Figure Out The Markets - And That's A Really Bad Thing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-05 02:28:13:000

Hedge fund managers sit at the top of the financial world's food chain. They're generally seen as the smartest money managers, and their companies have the most flexibility to pursue new opportunities. The result is supposed to be the best possible returns - for clients who can afford the high… read more...

Technically Speaking For The Week Of October 29-November 2

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-05 01:27:50:000

Markit Economics released their latest global PMI indexes this week . The reports showed continued expansion, but there is an underlying weakness is some indexes. Chinas PMI is barely positive (50.1). New order growth was modest while export orders and employment decreased. This rea… read more...

5th Straight Week Of S&P 500 Earnings Yield Above 6%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-04 13:58:27:000

With the 2.5% rally this week in the S&P 500, the S&P 500 "earnings yield" ended Friday, November 2nd, 2018 at 6.36% vs. last week's 6.52%. The last time we saw a lengthy string of S&P 500 earnings yield prints above 6% was late 2015, early 2016. Pretty much the whole first qua… read more...

'Crushed Souls' And The Case For A 'Rolling Squeeze Higher' In The S&P

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-04 10:57:10:000

Whenever we get a technical selloff like what unfolded on October 10, when systematic flows and option gamma hedging precipitated a sharp drawdown, there's a rush in certain bearish circles to quantify the assumed impact of further programmatic de-risking. More simply: There's a demonstrable t… read more...

How Bad Was October 2018, And What Comes Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-04 05:16:42:000

There's been a lot of discussion and stats thrown around recently, much of it centered around the idea of "like we just had the worst October ever." I thought it might be interesting to crunch some numbers to see how bad it really was, and if we can draw any conclusions about what's likely to … read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Stock Market At A Crossroads

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-03 11:51:02:000

"The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios." - George Soros For anyone that is bullish, it was the month to forget. On October 30th, the S&P went 28 consecutive days without achieving back-to-back up days. That tied the longest s… read more...

The Curious Lure Of Austrian Economics In The Financial World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-03 09:28:00:000

We sometimes wonder why the hard money school called Austrian economics seems to be so popular in the financial world, as it has almost no support in the academic world, a curious contrast. After all, hard money makes speculation more difficult, which seems to run counter to the interest of … read more...

The Stock Market Slump: Is The Worst Behind Us?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-03 08:51:58:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed the likely catalyst behind last month's market volatility, the U.S. employment report for October and potential market impacts of the N… read more...

Private Payrolls Jumped In October And Wage Growth Accelerated

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-03 08:39:56:000

By Robert Hughes The labor market rebounded in October from the temporary effect of Hurricane Florence in September. U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 250,000 jobs in October, after an increase of just 118,000 new jobs in September. The modest September gain was revised down 16,000 from an initi… read more...

The Nothing Of U.S. Trade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-03 08:30:43:000

US imports rose sharply (seasonally-adjusted) in September 2018 over August. Both with and without petroleum, the year-over-year gains (unadjusted) were about 9%. September, however, will be the last month of favorable comparisons. Over the next few months, last year's artificial hurricane rel… read more...

The Correction Is Likely Over

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-02 15:16:48:000

The U.S. stock market recently saw its largest one-day drop since February 2018. Many financial media pundits are predicting that a recession is on the cusp, while others see this as a buying opportunity. If weve learned one thing as traders/investors, its that we shouldn&#x20… read more...

The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling A Recession: Update - November 2, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-02 10:35:02:000

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the October 2018 rate o… read more...

October: A Trick Or Treat For Bears?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-02 01:55:21:000

By Ryan Poirier, FRMO Halloween was yesterday, and October lived up to its reputation as a scary month for the markets with the S&P dropping 6.84% and the Nasdaq 100 tumbling 9.16%. We have seen worse in terms of percentage declines, but October 2018 ranked tied for second in terms of … read more...

U.S. Median Household Income Hits New High In September 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 20:01:40:000

Median household income in the United States increased to $63,007 in September 2018, a 0.5% increase over Sentier Research's August 2018 estimate of $62,685. The following chart shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States fr… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - November 1, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 12:23:39:000

The BCI at 2477.7 is below last week's downward revised level of 248.6, and it is below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 83.5. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 12.2, is below last weeks downward revised 13.1. Both BCIp and BCIg do not … read more...

Major Asset Classes: October 2018 Performance Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 07:35:37:000

There was almost no place to hide in October. Except for cash, all the major asset classes lost ground last month, marking the first across-the-board setback since February's widspread declines . Stocks in the US and around the world posted the biggest losses, leading a hefty setback in eme… read more...

Has The Market Run Out Of Bounces?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 06:24:42:000

By Jerry Wagner All summer long, it was repeated. The weekend would come, and the deserted backyard across the lake from me would fill with tiny people. The attraction? In addition to their lakeside, grandma and grandpa had bought a trampoline. As the weekend days went by, there was a … read more...

The Market Is Not Done Selling

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 02:39:02:000

One would think that the market had enough reasons for getting into a funk in October. Here is a veritable wall of worry - take your pick - from MarketWatch : Policy mistake by the Federal Reserve. Rising interest rates that could make borrowing more expensive. A slowdown in global… read more...

What To Expect From The October U.S. Jobs Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-31 06:55:15:000

By James Knightley, Chief International Economist Jobs growth Forecasting payrolls growth is always more luck than science, but there is even more guesswork than usual this month. That's because there is a double hurricane effect to take into account. September's payrolls figure of "just… read more...

2018 S&P 500 Revenue Growth The Strongest In Past 7 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-31 06:54:17:000

(Source: Refinitiv IBES) Thanks to Tajinder Dhillon, part of David Aurelios team at Refinitiv IBES, the old Thomson Reuters Financial and Data Group, this blog got a look at historical annual revenue growth for the S&P 500 since 2012. (See attached table. For… read more...

U.S. Growth Slowed In Q3, But Annual Pace Continued To Improve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-31 06:18:16:000

Originally published on October 26, 2018 US GDP growth beat expectations in today's "advance" estimate of third-quarter data. Output increased by an annual 3.5% (seasonally adjusted real rate), the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported earlier today. The gain is slightly above The Capita… read more...

Consumer Confidence Moved Closer To A New Record High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-31 06:13:03:000

By Robert Hughes The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose for the fourth month in a row, increasing by 2.6 points to 137.9. The index is constructed so that 1985 equals 100. The index is now at the highest level since September 2000 and just 6.8 points below the all-tim… read more...

Correlation Of The Strong Dollar With QE And Reverse QE

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 17:53:58:000

Introduction - importance of watching the trade-weighted dollar The US dollar has been on a tear in a way that does not show by simply looking at the trading vehicle, the USDX. A much better real world measure of the USD's trend is how it compares with trading partners. The government tracks… read more...

The Requirements For Economic Recovery

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 17:38:12:000

Edmund Phelps, economist at Columbia University and Nobel Prize winner in economics, writes in the Wall Street Journal about what works in an economic recovery. What works, Mr. Phelps argues, is innovation and enterprise. His research shows him that there is a stron… read more...

Why The Next Bear Will Be Bad

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 14:56:14:000

No way you can fight it every day No matter what you say You know it, the rhythm is gonna get you -Rhythm Is Gonna Get You, Gloria Estefan & Miami Sound Machine, 1987 Thought the month of October was bad? If so, you aint seen nothing yet. Why? Beca… read more...

Still Just A Panic Attack?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 08:11:21:000

A few weeks ago, I opined that the sudden equity selloff was just another panic attack and unlikely the start of a major rout or a harbinger of another recession. It's now turned into an official correction, with the S&P 500 down 10% from last month's peak. Has anything changed to make t… read more...

What's The Real Meaning Of The Stock Market Swoon?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 02:54:35:000

Nobody dares discuss it openly for fear of triggering a panic, but there aren't enough lifeboats for everyone. There's no shortage of explanations on the whys and wherefores of the US stock market's recent swoon / swan dive / plummet. Here's a few of the many credible explanations: - T… read more...

On Maximizing Employment, A Case For Caution

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 02:39:35:000

By Raphael Bostic , president and chief executive officer of the Atlanta Fed Over the past few months, I have been asked one question regularly: Why is the Fed removing monetary policy stimulus when there is little sign that inflation has run amok and threatens to undermine economic gro… read more...

An Unrewarded Earnings Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 01:43:47:000

Key points Uncertainty over the sustainability of earnings growth is fueling equity weakness, reinforcing our call for boosting resilience in equity portfolios. Global equities fell amid elevated market volatility. Government bonds and the U.S. dollar rallied, while oil prices decli… read more...

Discordant Data On Investment And Net Exports Spoil An Otherwise Bright Q3 GDP Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-29 23:42:32:000

US GDP continued its long expansion in the third quarter of 2018 at a pace that was only slightly slower than earlier in the year. According to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in Q3, compared to 4.2 percent in Q2. The advance est… read more...

Report: U.S. planning more tariffs on Chinese goods if Trump-Xi talks fail

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-29 14:31:04:000

Stocks turn negative following reports that the U.S. could be readying another round of Chinese tariffs if nothing comes from the expected G-20 meeting between Pres. Trump and China's Pres. Xi fail to reconcile the ongoing trade dispute. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Vanguard… read more...

The S&P 500 Nears The End Of Its 3rd Lévy Flight Event In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-29 11:55:28:000

Before we get started about what happened in the U.S. stock market during the fourth week of October 2018, let's consider some wisdom from JC at AllStarCharts: When the stock market is not going up, the blame game gets played. It's a combination of shareholders losing money and media type… read more...

It's S&P 500 Revenue Growth That May Be The Issue

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-28 14:58:55:000

David I. Templeton of Horan Capital Advisors out of Cincinnati posted this Q3 '18 S&P 500 revenue update to Twitter (@HoranCapitalAdvisors) on Saturday, October 27th, 2018. It's important info, but to supplement David's work, let's take a look at fourth quarter '18 "expected" S&P 500… read more...

All Along The Watchtower

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-28 11:29:21:000

"There must be some way out of here" Said the joker to the thief "There's too much confusion I can't get no relief --All Along The Watchtower, Bob Dylan, 1967 When it comes to investing, are you the joker or the thief? The joker . Stock investors has spent year… read more...

False Market Stories

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 15:50:14:000

"Humans think in stories rather than in facts, numbers, or equations, and the simpler the story, the better." - Yuval Harari in 21 Lessons for the 21st Century And the stories don't even have to be true. In fact, there is good evidence that Homo Sapiens evolved from being a rather unre… read more...

Hitting The Low Ceiling

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 14:47:52:000

We will hear all day and for the next month (at least) about the two best quarters of GDP growth in four years. Somehow this will be used to justify calling this an economic boom, even though those two quarters in 2014 supposedly didn't qualify. And they were better quarters, at least so far a… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Hits 3.0%! Are Higher Growth Rates To Come?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 08:54:16:000

Backed by continued strong consumer spending and a burst of government expenditures, United States economic growth, year over year, rose to 3.0 percent, up from 2.9 percent in the second quarter. Last year at this time, the US growth rate was only 2.3 percent, and two years ago, the growth r… read more...

Forward 4-Qtr Estimate Has Fallen Slightly While Apple's Numbers Have Risen

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 03:55:08:000

Apple (AAPL) may throw a life vest to the beleaguered Technology sector this week, with their fiscal Q4 '18 financial results release after the bell on November 1, '18. To keep tonight's post short and sweet, here is how Apple's EPS and revenue estimates have trended the last 6 - 9 months: … read more...

Conditional Option Writing: Using VIX To Improve Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-26 19:44:55:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Data Science Partners as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more By… read more...

In Search Of The Elusive 'Powell Put'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-26 14:57:58:000

Predictably, there's been a ton of chatter this week about the read-through of the equity ( SPY ) correction for financial conditions in the U.S. I kind of figured that might end up being the case, which is why I dedicated a post to it last weekend. I've written about it a ton on my site … read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Yield After Wednesday's Drop: 6.60%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-25 04:50:11:000

The forward 4-quarter estimate as of Wednesday is $173.29. The close in the S&P 500 as of Wednesday, October 24th, 2018: 2,656.10 $173.29 / 2,656.10 = 6.60%. The forward estimate fell a little since late last week, from $173.49 to $173.29. Summary / Conclusion : In Q1 '16, the… read more...

DotCom Deja Vu

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-25 04:32:23:000

The following is an excerpt from a recent chart book from The Felder Report Premium . In a recent interview for RealVision, Stan Druckenmiller spoke about how he realized late in 2000 that rising interest rates (second pane in the chart below), oil prices (third pane) and the dollar (bo… read more...

October In The Mirror Of History

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-24 13:29:36:000

Red October October is known to be a dangerous month for equity markets ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ). We already touched upon this month's tendency for red . It seems like this has been the case since, well, forever… Well, at least to some extent - it is! October is the month where ... read more...

Weekly Market Notes - October 22, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-24 05:05:00:000

Read more … read more...

Global Banking Stocks Are Crashing Hard - Just Like They Did In 2008

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-24 03:32:22:000

Global stocks are falling precipitously once again, and banking stocks are leading the way. If this reminds you of 2008, it should, because that is precisely what we witnessed back then. Banking stocks collapsed as fear gripped the marketplace, and ultimately, many large global banks had to be… read more...

Main Street Is Outperforming Wall Street

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-24 02:25:58:000

By Bob Baur, Ph.D., Chief Global Economist, Principal Global Investors After two weeks of stock market turmoil reminiscent of the plunges in February and March, it's time to take stock. The key to what's happening in financial markets today is understanding the divergence between the real … read more...

Value Is Coming, Who Will Be Ready?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-24 01:39:39:000

As markets plunge around the world this week, we should not lose big-picture perspective on how relatively little they have mean-reverted to date. And also on how much further stocks are likely to fall before they complete their third, and potentially final, bear cycle of this secular bear tha… read more...

Lots Of New Lows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-24 01:11:15:000

While most didn't finish near those levels, a lot of stocks in the S&P 500 hit 52-week lows on Tuesday. For the S&P 500 as a whole, 17.6% of stocks in the index traded down to their lowest levels in at least a year. The last time we saw that many stocks trade at new lows in unison with… read more...

S&P 500 Seasonality - Year-End Rally Time?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-23 14:46:55:000

As the seasons change so do the habits and actions of all things from the smallest critter all the way up to the Wall Street trader. We see seasonal tendencies in price movement across a number of different assets , but perhaps the most talked about - or what perhaps should be the most talked… read more...

Technically Speaking: Risk Of A Bigger Correction Rising

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-23 09:04:10:000

In this past weekend's missive, " Market Clings To Support ," I noted the early February correction process where we saw a similar short-term bottoming process, where the initial bounce failed, then bounced in mid-March, before failing again to retest the February lows. On Monday, the mark… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Expected To Cool In Friday's Q3 GDP Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-23 08:37:20:000

The government's initial estimate of third-quarter GDP for the US is on track to decelerate to a 3.3% increase in the release due at the end of this week, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. That's a solid gain, but the estimate marks a substantially so… read more...

Many Individual Stock Returns Are In Correction Territory

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-23 03:37:46:000

On a price-only basis, the S&P 500 Index remains up 3.08% year to date and up 4.66% on a total return basis. As the following chart shows, the S&P is off its late September high by 6.54%. Below the surface though, more widespread weakness has already taken place. The below chart sepa… read more...

The Big Shift

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 20:56:40:000

The Big Shift Is the market transitioning from bull to bear or rotating from high-multiple growth stocks such as FAANG to a broader base of undervalued, lower-P/E, late-cycle value stocks. We believe it is the latter. Indicators Point Towards Buy The Dip Our technical indicators support … read more...

ICYMI: Jim Rickards - 'Another Slow-Motion Meltdown?'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 12:41:13:000

Were watching replays from our 1st Annual Hedgeye Investing Summit and the investing insights keep flooding in. Consider this: 1998 Wall St banks bailed out hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management 2008 central banks bailed out the Wall Street… read more...

S&P 500 Investors Splitting Their Focus Between Q1 2019 And Q3 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 04:58:03:000

The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the third week of October 2018 much the same way as it ended the previous week , with investors appearing to split their forward-looking focus between the future quarters of 2019-Q1 and 2019-Q3. In between, the U.S. stock market continued to show signs of heighte… read more...

Financial Crises As The Source Of Modern Recessions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 02:45:17:000

Financial (including banking/housing) crises of some sort have been associated with most "modern" recessions in the developed economies. As a result, the possibility of a financial crisis is a key component of business cycle analysis, on the basis that recessions are the most interesting part … read more...

S&P 500: Not Every 7% Correction Is The Same

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-21 23:59:22:000

While some analysts have done a great job keeping you in the market the past several months, they start to become less reliable when they have no clue when to start to get you out. Being one of the few analysts that entered near the lows at 2016 and have urged traders and investors to stay lon… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - October 19, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-21 20:52:06:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. What comes next? The dip-buyers are on the ropes. They can mount a strong rally, but they can't sustain it. The rally-sellers are in control for now, but this scrum is far from being decided. Chart 1. S&P Periodic Returns … read more...

Why Stocks Could Soon Imperil U.S. GDP Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-21 14:14:14:000

Recently, I've endeavored to give readers on this platform a break by eschewing my penchant for mental acrobatics in favor of penning at least one straightforward, concise post on the weekends. Generally speaking, I try to challenge readers in everything I write. In my (pretty extensive) ex… read more...

Frustrating Financials: Like The S&P 500, Seeing A Year Of PE Compression?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-21 13:28:45:000

Seasonally, the S&P 500 is entering one of its strongest periods of the calendar year. [[SPY]]'s YTD total return as of Friday, 10/19/18, was about 5%, while [[XLF]] and [[KRE]] returned -3% and -6% respectively, YTD. Client's largest financial position for most accounts is Charles Sch… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Yield - Using Forward And Trailing 4-Quarter S&P 500 Earnings Data

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-21 08:13:06:000

The above is a new spreadsheet comparing the "4-quarter trailing" S&P 500 earnings yield and the "forward 4-quarter" S&P 500 earnings yield. Readers have asked about the 4-quarter trailing S&P 500 EPS earnings yield, but the time was never taken to build and compare the data… read more...

Explaining This Week's Price Action And A Warning On Scarce Dollars

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-20 11:23:47:000

It wasn't always pretty, but U.S. equities made it through this week largely unscathed in what looks like a testament to the notion that discretionary flows, fixed weight rebalancing and buybacks were enough to offset any systematic de-rising from vol.-control funds following last week's harro… read more...

Tech Sector: All About Apple Now, And S&P 500 Earnings Yield Closes At 6.27% Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-20 08:49:57:000

Apple (AAPL) does not report until Thursday, November 1 '18, but the smartphone giant is the big dog in the Technology sector after the creation of the Communications sector. Per David Aurelio of Refinitiv IBES, Apple's EPS weight within the Tech sector is now 19.7%, while its revenue weight… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: The Federal Reserve Is Not Tight!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-18 11:37:46:000

Is has not been often that I find myself in agreement with Alan Blinder, economics professor at Princeton University and former vice chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, but I believe his latest opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal is spot on.&#x201D… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: The Federal Reserve Is Not Tight!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-18 11:37:46:000

Is has not been often that I find myself in agreement with Alan Blinder, economics professor at Princeton University and former vice chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, but I believe his latest opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal is spot on.&#x201D… read more...

SEC may seek comments on easing quarterly reporting requirement: Reuters

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-17 15:28:49:000

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will consider seeking comment from the public on ways to ease the burden of requirements that publicly listed companies report earnings quarterly, Reuters reports. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Invesco QQQ ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 … read more...

'Bubble Vision' Has Returned In Spades - Right On Cue

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-17 07:41:52:000

They say "History doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme." Today, nowhere is there a singing chorus belting out remakes of the once tried and true classics from the forgotten "hits-ville" era of bull markets past than what I witnessed across what I refer to as the mainstream business/financial… read more...

It's A Mistake To Try To Identify Stock Bubbles

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-17 04:14:38:000

Original Post By Rob Bennett Warren Buffett recently said that while stock prices are high, he does not believe that prices are today in bubble territory. I don't think it is possible to say. When people use the word "bubble," they are suggesting that prices are about to pop an… read more...

The View Of The S&P 500 From The Futures

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-17 03:07:46:000

The second week of October 2018 was one of the most interesting for the S&P 500 (Index:SPX) in quite some time. For our purposes, to qualify as interesting, the S&P 500 needs to change in value by 2% or more on any given day, and Week 2 of October 2018 had two days that met that simp… read more...

Why Trade Deficits Are Key To The United States Financial Dominance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-16 17:36:34:000

I run a huge trade deficit. Its not with China or Mexico, but with Amazon. I buy all sorts of goods from them, and Jeff Bezos has yet to spend a penny with me. And its fair. Im happy with the items, and Amazon is happy to receive my money. Using the word d… read more...

Finger Pointing And Rotation Frustration: Thoughts On A Tuesday

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-16 15:30:33:000

Monday might have been uninspiring for U.S. equities, but Tuesday morning was a whole different story. It looks like whatever was left of the systematic deleveraging probably ran its course on Monday (some models showed additional CTA de-risking yesterday, but at a much slower pace). That… read more...

Troubling 10-Year Outlook For U.S. Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-16 14:39:20:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome David Rimkus as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more The ten-year… read more...

Gimme Shelter: High Beta Stocks Tend To Outperform When Rates Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-16 11:13:59:000

By Ryan Poirier The Federal Reserve increased rates eight times in the past three years, after being effectively zero for the prior seven years. Currently sitting at 2.25% [1], many believe rates have further to rise. Standard macroeconomic theory suggests that future interest rate hikes w… read more...

S&P 500: Still Reasonably Valued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-15 03:59:02:000

What the title of today's blog doesn't tell you is that valuation is a slippery slope. Some of the seemingly cheapest stocks in the S&P 500 are not really attractive values but more "value-traps," which, like the Sirens of Greek mythology fame, lure investors in, only to see themselves das… read more...

Market Madness: Current Stock Slide Is Overblown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 20:26:52:000

I've been silent for a few years on Seeking Alpha, as my "buy these U.S. stocks" calls became routine and I found a new, more hands-on project to work on. In short, what started as a simple remodel of a California single-family home turned into a dream job of mine: owning, remodeling and opera… read more...

4 Reasons Why The Bull Market Still Has Further To Run

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 11:07:26:000

Now what? On September 13, I posted an article on Seeking Alpha entitled 4 Reasons Why The Bull Market Has Further To Run. In this article, I highlighted four reasons why, despite all of the surrounding risks, the U.S. stock market appeared poised to rise through the end of the year. Given a… read more...

Strategic Fixed Income: Concoction Of Stress Factors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 10:24:23:000

By John Pattullo An unhealthy concoction of factors are creating a classically late-cycle feel in the markets. In a challenging time for bond managers, John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, simplifies the conundrums and shares his views. Key Takeaways While secular trend… read more...

Are S&P 500 Returns Becoming More Muted?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 09:10:41:000

Dr. David Kelly and his team at JPMorgan put together one of the best research and market/economic summaries on the Street (published quarterly) and that is the JPMorgan "Guide to the Market" ((GTTM)). The above graph (from the October 2nd Guide to the Market) notes the peak-to-trough correc… read more...

Here's Why The Next Recession Will Spiral Into A Depression

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 08:57:05:000

Here's the difference between a recession and a depression: you can't get blood from a stone, or make an insolvent entity solvent with more debt. There are two basic differences between a recession and a depression: 1. Duration: a recession typically lasts between 6 and 18 months, whil… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Rude Awakening Coming

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 07:39:45:000

There's little satisfaction writing the CBB after a big down week in the markets. Motivation seems easier to come by after up weeks, perhaps my defiant streak kicking in. I find myself especially melancholy at the end of this week. There's a rude awakening coming - perhaps it's finally startin… read more...

Is The Systematic Selloff Really Over?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-13 14:55:29:000

Let me kick this off by saying that on Friday evening, I delivered a sweeping assessment of what I firmly believe was rampant fearmongering following the Wednesday/Thursday drawdown in U.S. equities ( SPY ). That post, entitled " Reality Versus Market Agitprop: Did Everyone Really Turn Beari… read more...

U.S. Stocks Plunge In Tech-Fueled Rout

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-13 10:06:55:000

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Oct. 11, 2018, in Market & Economic On Wednesday, US stocks fell dramatically, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 800 points. The rout was led by technology stocks, with the NASDAQ Composite Ind… read more...

Pullbacks, Fear And Opportunity

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-13 09:13:31:000

From early 2016 to early 2018, the S&P 500 Index moved higher with very little downside volatility. As the below chart shows, that stretch of time was an abnormally long one in terms of very little downside market move. One consequence of this low volatility period is many investors began … read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Yield Ends Week At 6.27%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-13 08:18:17:000

The combination of a $4.89 increase in the forward four-quarter estimate two weeks ago and then the 4% drop in the S&P 500 this week has produced an unusually high S&P 500 earnings yield of 6.27%. Looking at my own spreadsheet data to see when the last time that happened, the last we… read more...

Morgan Stanley sees possible stock rally by year end: Bloomberg

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-12 12:49:25:000

Cheaper valuations, a decent earnings seasons, and favorable seasonality mayfuel a year-end stock rally, according to a note written by Morgan Stanley analysts led by Andrew Sheets. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF,… read more...

Shifts In Investor Sentiment Lead To Big Pain In The Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-12 07:28:59:000

On this week's podcast, Tematica Research's mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, tackle the recent shifts in investor sentiment that led to some big pain this week in the US stock market. They trace the impetus for the recent moves back to the data and comments they shared sever… read more...

Market Selloff: A Wakeup Call For Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-12 03:51:45:000

The Dow slid over 800 points and recorded the biggest single-day drop in eight months, led by a steep decline in tech shares and worries of rapidly rising rates. How should investors position themselves as volatility rises and the era of historically low rates come to an end? Kim Parlee … read more...

Large Decline In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-12 02:42:59:000

Thursday's Sentiment Survey release by the American Association of Individual Investors reported a 15.1 percentage point decline in bullish sentiment. Of course, this report comes one day after the 800+ drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. Two-thirds of the decline moved to the be… read more...

S&P 500 Drop - What To Expect Next

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 15:11:23:000

Yesterdays drop was dramatic, and from an Elliott Wave standpoint by breaking below 2,850, the S&P has now removed any possibility of an impulsive move higher. So, what does this mean? It means there are two other possibilities that become much higher probability counts. The two co… read more...

One Day Selloff Sparks Financial Media Meltdown (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 15:02:11:000

By the time this is published, the 3% move lower in stocks that occurred on Wednesday of this past week is probably already old news. But my take on the situation - why it happened, why it could continue to happen, why nobody seems to understand it and why we are flirting with dangerous territ… read more...

The Momentum Unwind: Why Do Things Snowball?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 13:18:18:000

After ripping through a half-dozen early posts over on my site Wednesday morning, I pivoted to this platform and put digital pen to digital paper in the interest of sounding the alarm for readers amid what, to my mind anyway, looked like a potentially dangerous selloff in U.S. equities. Th… read more...

U.S. Jobs Report: Party Like It's 1969

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 08:01:14:000

By Robin Anderson, Ph.D., Senior Economist, Principal Global Investors Below the disappointing headline, the September jobs report was quite strong. Top line payroll growth declined to 134,000; Hurricane Florence likely explained the weakness. About 300,000 people were out of work because … read more...

Weekly Edge: Markets Off To A Rough Start In October

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 06:32:35:000

By Troy Tanzy Equity markets have had a rocky start this month, leaving investors searching for other places to park their money. Unfortunately, those other places have also been falling. The Nasdaq Composite is down more than 5% in October, and the S&P 500 is on track for its fifth co… read more...

Small-Cap Stocks Getting Crushed Across Sectors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 05:04:06:000

In a post yesterday, we highlighted the fact that while large-cap stocks in the S&P 500 were down an average of 13.2% from their 52-week highs, small-cap stocks were faring much worse, with stocks in the S&P 600 Small Cap index down an average of over 20% from their respective highs…. read more...

Value And Growth Stocks: The Case For Being Overweight In Both

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 04:53:15:000

Should investors be overweight to both growth and value? Is it even possible? The stock market is at an interesting point today, currently enjoying one of its longest expansions on record. As history has all too well demonstrated, though, the good times won't last forever. At some point, som… read more...

Traders aren't panicking about Wednesday's selloff

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 00:30:40:000

via Bloomberg , traders reactions to Wednesday's selloff that saw the S&P 500 down more than 3% and Nasdaq drop over 4% were mixed. Some are buying the dip, others are still waiting for signs of strength. Overall, very little panic: More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Vangua… read more...

Trump: The Fed has 'gone crazy' by continuing to raise rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-10 18:18:27:000

" The Fed has gone crazy ," Pres. Trump says in reaction to today's stock market plunge. "It's a correction that we've been waiting for for a long time, but I really disagree with what the Fed is doing." More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, ProShares Short S&… read more...

Average Small Cap Stock In 'Bear Market' Territory

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-10 06:40:00:000

Most people watching have noticed that the recent weakness in equities has been especially tough on the small-cap space, and another illustration of that trend is to look at the distance that stocks are currently trading from their 52-week highs. Within the large-cap S&P 500, the average s… read more...

Crash Is Not At The Doorstep Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-09 23:19:54:000

The economy is doing well. The unemployment rate is at the multi decade low, inflation is tamed, wages are growing - somewhat - and there is no apparent reason (except for elevated debt leverage) why the current market shouldnt continue higher, at least in the short term. The recent … read more...

Stock Peaks And Gold

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-09 13:50:58:000

Hypothesis : Leading indicators are essential for us to stay a step ahead of the stock market to safeguard capital. Introduction This update is an attempt to clarify the negative effects of rising interest rates and oil price, which add higher costs to companies. There are signs that … read more...

S&P 500 Revenue Growth Has Accelerated Last 3 Years: Little-Told Story

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-09 04:57:38:000

Here is a quick history of the S&P 500's y/y revenue growth since early 2015: Q3 '18: +7.3% (est) Q2 '18: +10.0% Q1 '18: +7.3% Q4 '17: +8.0% Q3 '17: +6.0% Q2 '17: +5.3% Q1 '17: +7.7% Q4 '16: +5.0% Q3 '16: +2.7% Q2 '16: … read more...

Maybe You're Not As Bullish As You Claim To Be

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-08 15:42:24:000

One of the most striking things I've observed during the two (+) years I've been contributing posts to this platform, is that retail investors have a remarkable tendency to profess a bullish outlook on U.S. equities ( SPY ) irrespective of what's happening in markets on any given day, or durin… read more...

S&P 500 Investors Focus On 2019-Q1 In Week 1 Of 2018-Q4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-08 08:06:48:000

In the first week of October 2018, S&P 500 (Index: SPX) continued to firmly fix their forward-looking focus on 2019-Q1 in setting stock prices. At least that's our takeaway from observing the trajectory of the S&P 500 against what our dividend futures-based model projects should … read more...

September Jobs Prints 'Fair' But Is Ameliorated By Revisions; Geopolitical Concerns And A More Hawkish Fed Concern Us

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-08 04:43:44:000

NEW YORK (October 5, 2018) - The September jobs report printed well below forecast , at 134,000 new jobs. The consensus estimate had been 51,000 jobs more, at 185,000. Nevertheless, the significant upward revisions to the July (+18,000 jobs) and August (+69,000 jobs) numbers tend to softe… read more...

The Cost Of Having A Taper Tantrum

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-07 13:36:37:000

Remember the Taper Tantrum in 2013? That was when 10-year T-Bond yields rose about 1.3% off a floor of 1.7% and stocks also fell. Over a 6-month period, the All World Stock Index fell about 9% and 30-year T-Bonds fell 15%. Even a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio of US stocks and Total Bonds fell 5%…. read more...

Are You Ready?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-07 10:23:35:000

The time has come once again to put that bull market swagger to the test . Following a blissful third quarter, hints of increased volatility and a potentially sustained downside move in stocks have returned to the markets. For after nearly setting a new intraday all-time high on Wednesday, th… read more...

U.S. Economy Slows And Prices Spike Higher Amid Signs Of Capacity Constraints

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-07 08:08:53:000

September PMI survey data added to signs that the US economy continued to expand at a solid rate in the third quarter, albeit with the pace of expansion down on that seen in the second quarter. At least some of the slowdown can be attributed to capacity constraints limiting growth in many co… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings: There Has Been Little Downward Pressure On S&P 500 Earnings Estimates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-07 07:20:49:000

Looking at the overall S&P 500 estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2018: Q3 '18: As of 10/5/18: +21.5% y/y growth expected for S&P 500 EPS As of 10/1/18: +21.6% y/y growth expected for S&P 500 EPS As of 7/1/18: +23.5% y/y growth expected for … read more...

September Jobs Report: Poking Holes In The Full Employment Narrative

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-06 07:05:08:000

It is hard to believe that an entire month has passed since we last took at look at the employment situation in the United States, but here we are. The headline numbers were incredibly weak and much worse than expectations; however, a closer look at the actual figures reveals that it was now… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of October 1-5

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-06 05:24:12:000

The purpose of the turning points newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic numbers to determine if the economic momentum is changing from expansion to contraction to see if the economy is at a turning point. Several weeks ago, I… read more...

3 Events That Could Shape Stock Markets Before 2018 Ends

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 07:10:49:000

By Jim Iuorio At a Glance The November election is among events that could trigger volatility, It's been a decent year for U.S. stocks. At current levels, the S&P 500 is up almost 8 percent even after digesting the nasty volatility experienced in January and February. The most … read more...

ISM Reports Suggest Robust Economic Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 06:14:44:000

By Robert Hughes The latest monthly reports from the Institute for Supply Management show that the nonmanufacturing and manufacturing sectors of the economy continued to expand at a robust pace in September. Details in both reports were decisively positive and suggest strong, broad-based g… read more...

First 1% Decline Since June?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 02:15:29:000

The S&P 500 is currently trading down just over 1%, and if these declines hold through the closing bell, it would be the first decline of 1% or more for the index since late June. At 70 trading days, the current streak ranks as the third longest of the bull market behind the 109-trading da… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 8K

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 02:08:43:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending September 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1… read more...

What Amazon's Minimum Wage Hike Says About The U.S. Economic Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-04 10:50:11:000

Amazon ( AMZN ) grabbed headlines this week, announcing it would raise its minimum wage to $15 per hour. While the stock has slipped since the news and pulled down the Consumer Discretionary sector down with it Hedgeye Macro analyst Christian Drake notes that the announce… read more...

Small Caps And Cyclical Stock Sectors Underperforming

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-04 07:31:35:000

During the early part of this year, quite a bit was written about the outperformance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap stocks. One commonly referenced reason for the outperformance was based on the trade and tariff issues and the potentially greater negative impact this would have on large-… read more...

The Federal Reserve Cannot Continue Quantitative Tightening For Much Longer

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 16:08:45:000

Last week, the Federal Reserve increased the fed funds rate to 2.25% (see chart below from FRED ). At the same time, the Federal Reserve reduced its balance sheet by $200 billion already since the start of QT in 2018, but there is still a long way to go (see chart below from FRED ). As y… read more...

Dividends By The Numbers For September 2018 And 2018-Q3

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 06:41:21:000

September is typically the worst month of the year for tracking positive changes for dividends in the U.S. stock market. While the month of June can provide it with real competition, in most years September ranks the lowest for the number of announced dividend increases. Having now set the s… read more...

Market Remains Overvalued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 06:21:21:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis: The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio ( more ) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor ( more ) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market… read more...

Is The Stock Market Immune To Rate Hikes?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 06:00:00:000

Stocks and bonds compete for investment capital. There tends to be an inverse price relationship between equities and fixed income products. Following the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks around the world slashed interest rates and put programs of quantitative easing in place to p… read more...

The Coming 'Bump' In The Forward Estimate And The TLT

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 05:32:55:000

An excellent technician, Gary Morrow, as well as a long-time acquaintance, with his TLT chart from 10/1/18. The 3.12% and 3.25% area continue to be strong resistance for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury respectively. When those levels break through, or when we see the 10 and 30-year Treasury c… read more...

5 Years Is A Long Time To Be Wrong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 05:10:30:000

Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on October 3, 2018. In a few previous blog posts (for example, here ) I discussed the limitations of sentiment as a market timing tool. It certainly can be helpful to track the public's sentiment and use it as a contrary indicator, and… read more...

How Important Was The Financial Panic As A Cause Of The Great Recession? - EconSpark

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 03:49:20:000

Over on EconSpark, I think this is wrong: Ben Bernanke: How Important Was The Financial Panic As A Cause Of The Great Recession? : "The collapse of the housing bubble was certainly a primary cause of the Great Recession. The unwinding of the bubble (1) depressed aggregate demand through i… read more...

The Dirty Little Stock Market Secret

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 03:22:22:000

Shhhh… don't tell anyone, I have a dirty little secret. Are you ready? Are you sure? The world is not going to end... really. Despite lingering trade concerns (see " Trump Hits China with Tariffs on $200 Billion in Goods "), Elon Musk being sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission (S... read more...

Greenback Advances

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-02 15:25:10:000

Overview: The US dollar is rising against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are the exceptions and are holding their own. Global equities are mixed. Asia, excluding Japan, was mostly lower, with 1.2% losses in Taiwan and South Korea a… read more...

The Armstrong Limit

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-02 07:27:59:000

"Men go abroad to wonder at the heights of mountains, at the huge waves of the sea, at the long courses of the rivers, at the vast compass of the ocean, at the circular motions of the stars, and they pass by themselves without wondering." - Saint Augustine Watching with interest the Japane… read more...

The S&P 500 In The Week When The Fed Ended Its Forward Guidance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-02 05:31:00:000

On Wednesday, September 26, 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would no longer signal its intentions for monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has a new message for financial markets: watch the data on jobs, wages and inflation for signals on monetary polic… read more...

Turning Point?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-01 10:39:29:000

You'd be forgiven for pondering whether now is an opportune time to buy the dip in emerging market assets and ex-U.S. assets more generally. Even the Wall Street Journal has picked up on the "divergence" narrative. On Monday, the paper ran a feature story called " U.S. Stocks Widen Lead Ove… read more...

Remember The Trade Wars? This Isn't Complicated

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-29 14:41:36:000

The title here is of course a reference to the fact that trade war news took a back seat to domestic politics in the U.S. this week. It's a quip, and not a particularly creative one, but it resonated on Friday, and it speaks to the manic nature of the news cycle that has, at various times ov… read more...

Remember The Trade Wars? This Isn't Complicated

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-29 14:41:36:000

The title here is of course a reference to the fact that trade war news took a back seat to domestic politics in the U.S. this week. It's a quip, and not a particularly creative one, but it resonated on Friday, and it speaks to the manic nature of the news cycle that has, at various times ov… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Portending An Interesting Q4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-29 14:08:19:000

"Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it." I'll add that those that learn the wrong lessons from bubbles are doomed to face greater future peril. The ten-year anniversary of the financial crisis has generated interesting discussion, interviews and scores of articles. I can't hel… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Portending An Interesting Q4

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-29 14:08:19:000

"Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it." I'll add that those that learn the wrong lessons from bubbles are doomed to face greater future peril. The ten-year anniversary of the financial crisis has generated interesting discussion, interviews and scores of articles. I can't hel… read more...

Income And Spending Post Solid Gains In August As Price Increases Moderate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-29 10:28:08:000

By Robert Hughes Personal income rose 0.3 percent in August, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The gain in personal income was supported by a 0.5 percent increase in wages and salaries. Wages and salaries account for about half of personal income. Supplements to wages… read more...

Income And Spending Post Solid Gains In August As Price Increases Moderate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-29 10:28:08:000

By Robert Hughes Personal income rose 0.3 percent in August, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The gain in personal income was supported by a 0.5 percent increase in wages and salaries. Wages and salaries account for about half of personal income. Supplements to wages… read more...

Fed Raises Rates, But What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-29 10:15:13:000

Posted by Noelle Corum, Portfolio Manager, and James Ong, Senior Macro Strategist on Sep 27, 2018, in Fixed Income As expected, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 2.00% to 2.25%. 1 The so-called dot plot, the Fed's way … read more...

Fed Raises Rates, But What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-29 10:15:13:000

Posted by Noelle Corum, Portfolio Manager, and James Ong, Senior Macro Strategist on Sep 27, 2018, in Fixed Income As expected, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 2.00% to 2.25%. 1 The so-called dot plot, the Fed's way … read more...

McCullough: Our Process Before Last Crash Is Same Today

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 11:35:40:000

Every economic downturn is different. But identifying the data that leads to them has remained the same here at Hedgeye since our founding in 2008 just before the market crash. As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains, his process remains the same as our macro team calls for slowi… read more...

Strong Equity Inflows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 04:00:18:000

Investors directed sizable investment fund flows towards equities for the week ending 9/19/2018, as reported by the Investment Company Institute ((ICI)) on 9/26/2018. Total equity inflows for that week equaled $10.2 billion. This completely reversed the $10.4 billion net outflows reported over… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 12K, Worse Than Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 02:39:24:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending September 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by… read more...

Individual Investors Turn A Bit More Bullish

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 02:32:12:000

With the Dow Jones - America's "Main Street" equity index - joining the S&P at new highs to close out last week, we were not too surprised to see that individual investors turned more bullish in the latest week. But even after the increase, positive sentiment remains at extremely depressed… read more...

The Market Has An Eerie Resemblance To The Late 1920s

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 23:44:28:000

I have long had this conundrum - why stocks did not manage to do so well before the 1930s, when we had the gold standard. Looking at the logarithmic chart below, we can see that the Dow did not really advance for decades, from the beginning of the century until the early 1940s. For four deca… read more...

The Future For S&P 500 Dividends In Q4 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-26 09:13:42:000

Dividend futures provide a lot of valuable information about what investors anticipate for their investments in the stock market. In a sense, they are the best available quantification of investor expectations for the future, where changes in their level are ultimately reflected in today'… read more...

The Future For S&P 500 Dividends In Q4 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-26 09:13:42:000

Dividend futures provide a lot of valuable information about what investors anticipate for their investments in the stock market. In a sense, they are the best available quantification of investor expectations for the future, where changes in their level are ultimately reflected in today'… read more...

To Boldly Go Where America Has Never Gone Before

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-26 07:01:32:000

Which of these statements is true? Tight labor markets are almost always followed by recessions within a year or two (1966 was an exception). Inverted yield curves are almost always followed by recessions within a year or two (1966 was an exception.) The US has never experienced an exp… read more...

To Boldly Go Where America Has Never Gone Before

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-26 07:01:32:000

Which of these statements is true? Tight labor markets are almost always followed by recessions within a year or two (1966 was an exception). Inverted yield curves are almost always followed by recessions within a year or two (1966 was an exception.) The US has never experienced an exp… read more...

Equity Market Performance Before And After The U.S. Midterm Election

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-26 06:31:46:000

September this year certainly seemed like an odd month. For example, the fifth business day of the month was Tuesday, September 10, as Labor Day in the U.S. was on Monday, September 3. The first business day was September 4. The end of the month is this Friday, September 28. I mention this as … read more...

Equity Market Performance Before And After The U.S. Midterm Election

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-26 06:31:46:000

September this year certainly seemed like an odd month. For example, the fifth business day of the month was Tuesday, September 10, as Labor Day in the U.S. was on Monday, September 3. The first business day was September 4. The end of the month is this Friday, September 28. I mention this as … read more...

Technically Speaking: Can You 'Feel' The Complacency?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 20:38:55:000

Yesterday, the market sold off modestly over continuing concerns of "tariffs" and trade wars. At least that was the headline reason. The real reason was simply that the market is overbought in the short term and traders were taking profits in a light-volume session. As shown in the chart below… read more...

Technically Speaking: Can You 'Feel' The Complacency?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 20:38:55:000

Yesterday, the market sold off modestly over continuing concerns of "tariffs" and trade wars. At least that was the headline reason. The real reason was simply that the market is overbought in the short term and traders were taking profits in a light-volume session. As shown in the chart below… read more...

A Strange Week Of Record Market Highs But Good Stocks Falling

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 05:28:56:000

Growth stocks have led the market for a long time, but last week we saw many interest rate-sensitive value stocks (like insurance companies and utilities) firm up. This temporary rotation into value stocks is a bit odd, since the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose decisively above the 3% level, … read more...

You Did It!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 04:23:27:000

"Tonight, old man, you did it! You did it! You did it! You said that you would do it, And indeed you did. I thought that you would rue it; I doubted you'd do it. But now I must admit it That succeed you did." - My Fair Lady ( You Did It ) Well, "you did it," as the senior index followed m… read more...

The Best Time To Prepare Is While The Bull Runs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 02:54:45:000

In case you couldnt tell from the ubiquitous political ads and yard signs, midterm elections are right around the corner. Historically, volatility has increased and markets have dipped leading up to midterms on uncertainty, but afterward theyve outperformed. Of especially goo… read more...

Party Like It's 1992?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 01:38:11:000

Last week, Mark Hulbert warned of an indicator that hasn't been this inflated since the "Dot.com" bubble. To wit : "It's been more than 25 years since the stock market's long-term trailing return was as low as it is today. Since the top of the internet bubble in March 2000, the S&P 500… read more...

The S&P 500 Sets New High Mark In Week Of Calm

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 01:10:41:000

The fourth week of September 2018 was fairly uneventful for the U.S. stock market. Mainly, that's attibutable to the pre-FOMC meeting media blackout that silences Fed officials, who had been making quite a bit of noise in previous weeks . Still, it was a big week for the S&P 500 (Inde… read more...

Leading Indicators Show No Signs Of Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 01:05:14:000

The Leading Indicators report released this past Thursday reinforced signals of a strong US economy. From this release, there do not appear to be signs of a looming recession. Below we show the ratio of Leading Indicators to Coincident Indicators over the past 60 years. Historically, this rati… read more...

We Do Not Know The Effects Of The 'Trade War'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-23 08:16:42:000

I continue to be amazed at many analysts who are shoveling opinion masquerading as fact on the impact of a trade war between China and the U.S. Many analysts are discussing impacts like: how $200 billion of duties on both China and the U.S. would affect U.S. exporters more because the U…. read more...

We Do Not Know The Effects Of The 'Trade War'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-23 08:16:42:000

I continue to be amazed at many analysts who are shoveling opinion masquerading as fact on the impact of a trade war between China and the U.S. Many analysts are discussing impacts like: how $200 billion of duties on both China and the U.S. would affect U.S. exporters more because the U…. read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Investor Sentiment - By One Metric - Is Still Horrid

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-23 06:10:45:000

The American Association of Individual Investors ((AAII)) puts out a weekly investor sentiment survey, and this week, the AAII investors that voted themselves as being bullish on the market totaled a whopping 32%. Here is the summary data: AAII % bullish: 32% AAII neutral: 35.9% AAII… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Investor Sentiment - By One Metric - Is Still Horrid

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-23 06:10:45:000

The American Association of Individual Investors ((AAII)) puts out a weekly investor sentiment survey, and this week, the AAII investors that voted themselves as being bullish on the market totaled a whopping 32%. Here is the summary data: AAII % bullish: 32% AAII neutral: 35.9% AAII… read more...

The Housing Bubble, The Credit Crunch, And The Great Recession: A Reply To Paul Krugman

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-22 12:24:17:000

This article originally appeared on the Brookings Institution site on Sept. 21, 2018. To read the original version of this post, including charts, click here . Why was the Great Recession so deep? Certainly, the collapse of the housing bubble was the key precipitating event; falling hou… read more...

U.S. Equity Leadership: 3 Key Trends To Watch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-22 09:32:33:000

By Alec Young, managing director, global markets research The yawning gap between US and international equity performance that has been building since 2011 persists unabated. Through mid-September, the Russell 1000 Index has generated a year-to-date total return of 9.6% compared to a 4.4% … read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: S&P At A New High; Another Dow Theory Buy Signal This Week; Enough Said, Stocks Are Going Higher

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-22 08:35:02:000

"Always something new, always something I didn't expect, and sometimes it isn't horrible." - Robert Jordan The stock market marches to it own beat. Because we take in all of the sights and sounds around us, we have been conditioned to think its all about the latest headline, th… read more...

WSJ: China cancels trade talks with U.S.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 22:40:15:000

China has canceled planned trade discussions with the U.S., following this week's announcement of new U.S. tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods, WSJ reports. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF, Top stock market news, Top Br… read more...

Tariffs And Stocks - When Will They Reflect The Current Environment?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 06:15:00:000

Subsidies and tariffs distort the prices of markets across all asset classes. 2018 is turning out to be the year of tariffs as a protectionist wave has swept around the world. On the campaign trail, President Trump advocated for a hard line against other nations on trade protocols which he arg… read more...

Bond Yields Climbing: Could The Chinese Weaponize U.S. Debt?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 03:45:11:000

By SchiffGold Yields have been on the rise this week in the midst of a bond market sell-off. Two-year borrowing costs hit their highest level in a decade on Wednesday. The yield on the 2-year Treasury climbed to 2.816%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a four-month high of 3.07%. … read more...

The U.S. Current Account: Goods Are Bad And Ugly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 00:57:59:000

The US current account deficit may seem fantastically large, with over $100 billion in payments flowing out of the US relative to inbound payments each quarter, but that works out to less than 2% of GDP at an annual rate; during the last economic expansion, that deficit was as large as 6.3% of… read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report - 20 September, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 00:36:43:000

US economic growth remains strong, based on data published to date, but today's business-cycle profile continues to suggest that we've seen the peak. Recession risk remains low, and near-term projections point to more of the same. The question is whether there's trouble brewing for 2019. At … read more...

Jobless Claims Move Towards A '1' Handle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 00:15:59:000

In the quarterly conference call on Thursday, Darden (DRI) CEO Gene Lee noted that the "workforce pool in the US is shrinking," and this week's Jobless Claims report confirmed that sentiment. While first-time claims were expected to come in at an absurdly low level of 210K, the actual reading … read more...

Heads Up: Narrative Shift Alert

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-20 12:07:48:000

The crowded U.S. Dollar long is in trouble, making a new low for September and now back near July levels as it breaks lower through both 50- and 100- DMAsall despite the markets recent upgrade towards the Fed 2019 dots, which is telling. That's from Nomura's Charlie McEllig… read more...

Quality As A Hedge Against Rising Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-20 07:20:55:000

While momentum stocks have prevailed since 2016, is quality about to have its day? Possibly, if volatility continues to rise, as Russ discusses. Growth stocks' extended dominance over value has captured the headlines of late. That said, since the end of 2016 it has really been about moment… read more...

U.S. Politics And Commodities Prices

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-20 06:15:00:000

Raw material prices move higher or lower because of supply and demand fundamentals. Technical factors such as herd behavior can also play a significant role in the path of prices. When it comes to the entire commodities asset class, exogenous events can also drive prices at times. The politica… read more...

Tariffs May Wipe Out Gains From Tax Cut

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-19 08:25:30:000

By Max Gulker Perceptions matter. If asked today to sum up the current U.S. administration's economic policy, one might respond, "Tax cuts for households and corporations, along with protectionist tariffs." But with the announcement this week of the most far-reaching tariffs yet, one might… read more...

Fear And The Running Of The Bull

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-19 07:46:49:000

In some ways, the market is like a projectile - it launches, it reaches a maximum height, then it falls. The maximum height reached by a projectile depends on its initial conditions: angle of inclination, initial velocity and, to a lesser extent, wind dynamics. The maximum height reached by th… read more...

The Negativity In The Air Is Getting Crazier By The Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-19 05:21:24:000

By Gary Alexander It really is getting out of hand - crazy, uncontrollable, borderline lunatic. I'm talking about headlines. The latest edition of The Atlantic - one of the most prestigious journalistic institutions in American history, one I have subscribed to for decades - crowded 10… read more...

This Time The Bubble Pops From The Outside In - Interview With Doug Noland And Dave Burgess

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-19 03:33:01:000

Read more … read more...

Technically Speaking: The World Diverges From The U.S.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-19 03:25:30:000

In our last installment of Technically Speaking , we discussed the current bullish trend and our price target of 3000 by year end. To wit: "Regardless of the reasons, the breakout Friday, with the follow through on Monday, is indeed bullish. As we stated repeatedly going back to April, ea… read more...

Time To Abandon The Bull Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-18 02:54:17:000

Our appetite for risk is waning. I generally don't like jeremiads (named for the biblical prophet Jeremiah); they're long, mournful plaints, always predicting a downfall - Ole' Jerry, he was a lamenter. I'm not gonna try to throw any more cold water on our equity bull market. I've alread… read more...

The Ingredients Of An 'Event'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-18 02:23:46:000

This past week marked the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Of course, there were many articles recounting the collapse and laying blame for the "Great Financial Crisis" at their feet. But as is always the case, an "event" is always the blame for major reversions rather than… read more...

Stocks Rebounded Last Week As U.S. Bonds, Commodities Fell

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-18 01:32:40:000

US and foreign stock markets firmed up last week, including the recently pummeled slice of emerging-markets equities, based on a set of exchange-traded products. Meanwhile, US investment-grade bonds and broadly defined commodities posted the only setbacks for the major asset classes over the… read more...

The Fed Sets Expectations For The S&P 500 In Week 3 Of September 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-18 01:20:31:000

The S&P 500 closed out the third week of September 2018 on an upnote, but not by so much that it resumed setting the kind of new record highs that it was just a few weeks ago . The following chart shows the latest update to our spaghetti forecast chart for the trajectory of the S&P … read more...

Instilling Fear In Investors Via Charts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 07:59:18:000

In the mid-1990s, famed investor Peter Lynch stated, "Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves." With this quote in mind, it seems a number of investment pundits are once again trying t… read more...

As Fiscal Stimulus Fades, What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 07:48:49:000

As summers light market volumes return to more normal measures, the markets sangfroid attitude toward US-China trade tensions to date is slated to change. The markets aloofness to the growing threat posed by the worlds two largest economies' tit-for-tat about-fa… read more...

The Bearish Season For Stocks Is Upon Us

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 06:00:00:000

The last leg of the bull market in stocks has been in place since the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis took the primary equity indices to lows in early 2009. The housing crisis in the United States, a massive government bailout of banks and financial institutions, and a sovereign deb… read more...

What Caused The Financial Crisis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 04:11:32:000

Photo Credit: Alane Golden || Sad but true - the crisis was all about bad monetary policy, a housing bubble, and poor bank risk management There are a lot of opinions being trotted around ten years after the financial crisis. A lot of them are self-serving, to deflect blame from areas … read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Week Of Gains After Minor Losses

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 00:29:35:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 made gains each day of last week, ending with a weekly gain of 1.16%. The index was up 7.76% YTD. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.99%. Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500. Friday's selling puts the volume at its 5… read more...

Tracking 2019 S&P 500 Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 00:20:46:000

Looking at all the data this past week, the metric that jumped out was the 15 basis point climb in the 10-year Treasury yield from 2.85% to 3% even as CPI came in softer than expected. Thomson had Oracle (ORCL) reporting this past week in last weekend's "This Week in Earnings," but that was … read more...

Concentration Risk: IPOs, New Firms' Arrivals And Super Stars

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-14 02:05:04:000

One of my favourite long-run tail risks to watch in the financial markets (and indeed, due to ongoing monopolisation trends, in the entire economy) is concentration risk. Here is an absolutely epic post from @michaelbatnick on the subject of increasing concentration in equity markets driven … read more...

Concentration Risk: IPOs, New Firms' Arrivals And Super Stars

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-14 02:05:04:000

One of my favourite long-run tail risks to watch in the financial markets (and indeed, due to ongoing monopolisation trends, in the entire economy) is concentration risk. Here is an absolutely epic post from @michaelbatnick on the subject of increasing concentration in equity markets driven … read more...

Concentration Risk: IPOs, New Firms' Arrivals And Super Stars

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-14 02:05:04:000

One of my favourite long-run tail risks to watch in the financial markets (and indeed, due to ongoing monopolisation trends, in the entire economy) is concentration risk. Here is an absolutely epic post from @michaelbatnick on the subject of increasing concentration in equity markets driven … read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K, Lowest Since December 1969

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 22:50:02:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims si… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K, Lowest Since December 1969

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 22:50:02:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims si… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K, Lowest Since December 1969

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 22:50:02:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims si… read more...

Big Drop In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 22:41:06:000

The post-summer hangover after Labor Day weekend certainly didn't sit well with individual investors. In this week's sentiment survey from AAII , bullish sentiment dropped by over 10 percentage points, falling from 42.2% down to 32.1%. That's the lowest weekly reading in optimism since the … read more...

Big Drop In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 22:41:06:000

The post-summer hangover after Labor Day weekend certainly didn't sit well with individual investors. In this week's sentiment survey from AAII , bullish sentiment dropped by over 10 percentage points, falling from 42.2% down to 32.1%. That's the lowest weekly reading in optimism since the … read more...

Big Drop In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 22:41:06:000

The post-summer hangover after Labor Day weekend certainly didn't sit well with individual investors. In this week's sentiment survey from AAII , bullish sentiment dropped by over 10 percentage points, falling from 42.2% down to 32.1%. That's the lowest weekly reading in optimism since the … read more...

A Market Shift

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 22:06:24:000

Providing demonstrable and actionable investment advise is a pretty difficult task. Some market seasons can range in predictability from everything-goes-up, funny money, and buy-the-dip mania to choppy technicals and endless whipsaw. With exceptions, the past decade has more or less been the… read more...

A Market Shift

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 22:06:24:000

Providing demonstrable and actionable investment advise is a pretty difficult task. Some market seasons can range in predictability from everything-goes-up, funny money, and buy-the-dip mania to choppy technicals and endless whipsaw. With exceptions, the past decade has more or less been the… read more...

A Market Shift

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 22:06:24:000

Providing demonstrable and actionable investment advise is a pretty difficult task. Some market seasons can range in predictability from everything-goes-up, funny money, and buy-the-dip mania to choppy technicals and endless whipsaw. With exceptions, the past decade has more or less been the… read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 17:52:25:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week: 1. Global equities… read more...

On Thursday, There Was Good News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 17:24:11:000

I know it might not seem like that big of a deal and it would be a mistake to read too much into a single economic data point, but if you're long U.S. equities ( SPY ) or risk assets of any kind, you should take comfort in the August CPI miss. For weeks, analysts and market commentators hav… read more...

Can Optimism Make America Great Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 06:39:24:000

It sure can't hurt. Thanks to sharply reduced tax and regulatory burdens, small business owners are more optimistic about the future than ever before. If we can make it through the current tariff wars, the US economy could experience surprisingly strong growth in the years to come. Chart #1… read more...

The Sleepy Dollar At The High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 06:00:00:000

The U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the world, and it is the benchmark pricing mechanism for most raw materials. Therefore, the level of the dollar against other global currencies impacts the prices of commodities. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on raw material prices, and a weaker gr… read more...

New Record Highs For Small-Business Confidence And Job Openings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 06:24:45:000

By Robert Hughes The small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business jumped to 108.8 in August, a new all-time high. That is up 0.9 points from 107.9 in July and tops the previous record of 108.0 in July 1983. The latest result extends a run of 21 consecu… read more...

The Trauma Of 2008 Created More Cautious Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 04:17:51:000

By Gary Alexander This week marks the anniversary of the two most traumatic events of the 21st century so far. September 11, 2001, is a date that will forever live in infamy - 17 years ago today - and to a lesser extent, so is September 15, 2008, when Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11… read more...

Despite September Fears, The Market's Best Season Approaches

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 03:29:40:000

The S&P declined each day of the holiday-shortened first week of September, but it only fell 1% in all. That's nothing to worry about, but the bears were out in full force warning about the potential of a September crash, especially in light of the upcoming 10th anniversary of the 2008 fin… read more...

Job Openings And Quits Rising At Faster Pace Than Job Hires

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 02:54:16:000

The Labor Department's release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTs) report this morning is further confirmation of a strong labor market. The NFIB Small Business Optimism report I highlighted earlier today also noted the difficulty small business are having in filling open job posi… read more...

U.S. Equity Bull Run: Second Longest Based On Economic Expansions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 02:50:45:000

How old is the bull market in US stocks? By some accounts , we're knee-deep in the oldest run on record. But some analysts beg to differ . Thanks to several possibilities for measuring such things, there's a debate about the appropriate methodology for dating the age of the current run-up in… read more...

New Record High For The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 02:40:13:000

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reported that August's Small Business Optimism Index set a new record high at 108.8. The prior high mark for the index was set 45 years ago (July 1983) when the index reached 108. NFIB's President and CEO, Juanita Duggan, stated in the… read more...

Bond JOLTS Without Wages To Back Just JO

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 02:35:37:000

In the absence of a booming economy, one has been conjured from a select few employment statistics. The catalog, beginning in 2014, consisted of a rapidly falling unemployment rate, the Establishment Survey which dazzled with headline payroll growth supposedly adding up to the "best jobs marke… read more...

Are We Mismeasuring Our Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 02:04:15:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA, Director of Research On last week's "Behind the Markets" podcast, we spoke with Leonard Nakamura, an economist at the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia and a former professor at the Wharton School. This was a privilege, and we had a special conversation co… read more...

Investors Would Be Wise Not To Fixate On GDP

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-11 07:51:01:000

Investors would be wise not to fixate on America's recent GDP, accepting it as a sign or verification the economy is hitting on all cylinders. If investors fall into the trap of focusing on the GDP and lock onto this number as a confirmation that all is well, they may be in for a huge surprise… read more...

Is The Great Moderation Back?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-11 06:59:14:000

The "Great Moderation" was a term used to describe the reduction in business cycle volatility observed in several advanced economies. It started in the mid-1980s and it coincided with the period of time where inflation had been successfully brought down to a low level (and remained low and sta… read more...

The S&P 500 Backs Off Its Record High In Week 2 Of September 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-11 00:44:25:000

The S&P 500 (SPX) declined during the second week of September 2018, where the prospects for escalating interest rates in the U.S. and for tariffs to negatively impact the earnings of the S&P 500's largest component closed the week on a low note. While news related to the increas… read more...

Interest Rates Set To Rise Again This Month

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-10 06:00:00:000

With the summer coming to an end this Monday on the Labor Day holiday, the market will now focus on the upcoming meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the potential for a 25 basis point hike in the Fed Funds rate at the end of this month. Higher interest rates tend to support the dollar an… read more...

August Jobs Report - Quite Good, Except For One Thing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-10 05:00:17:000

It is hard to believe that another month has passed since my last analysis of a BLS jobs report, but alas, here we are. On Friday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August 2018 Employment Situation Summary . The actual numbers certainly surprised economists, with payrolls co… read more...

The 1-Minute Market Report - September 8, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-10 04:38:07:000

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. Chart 1. S&P periodic returns. This Week Last Week Chart 2. Distance from Key Markers This Week Last Week Charts 3-4-5 The bull market in 3 acts This bull market is now in the history books as the… read more...

SPY: Dangerous Build Up At The Top

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-10 02:59:15:000

( Pic Sourced Here ) Behavioral factors involving the use of technical research and investor sentiment signals result in a disciplined portfolio that is less susceptible to biases. The benefit here is to focus primarily on momentum, money flows and moving averages. They separate short… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Update And One Reflection On September 2008

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-10 01:57:02:000

With next weekend being the anniversary of the Lehman bankruptcy, this coming week the financial media will likely be flooded with stories, recollections, "the wisdom of hindsight" type of reflection (and it's starting already) that is helpful in not repeating past mistakes but may not help ve… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Stay The Course And Look For Opportunity In This Tricky Market Period

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-08 09:51:19:000

"Positive thinking will let you do everything better than negative thinking will" - Zig Ziglar Distractions continue to hound investors. The markets have a way of making investors fearful whether stocks are up, "they can't rise any further, can they?" or down, "surely the worst is y… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Stay The Course And Look For Opportunity In This Tricky Market Period

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-08 09:51:19:000

"Positive thinking will let you do everything better than negative thinking will" - Zig Ziglar Distractions continue to hound investors. The markets have a way of making investors fearful whether stocks are up, "they can't rise any further, can they?" or down, "surely the worst is y… read more...

S&P Breakout Target Levels And Timing - How And When To Rotate For Exceptional Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 12:33:51:000

In my last article titled " S&P 500 Upside Breakout - Don't Lose your Core Stock Positions - Yet ," I described what constitutes a breakout in the S&P, as well as those levels the breakout both occurred, and should now act as support for continued upside. In this article I'll discuss t… read more...

Hey Fed, What's Going On? A Jackson Hole Retrospective

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 07:30:00:000

With the Federal Reserve's 2018 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium now over, markets continuing to hit new highs, and the economy seemingly humming on all cylinders (lots of people are employed, corporate profits are strong, and the Q2 gross national product was just north of 4%), we thought it w… read more...

Bullish Sentiment Remains Elevated

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 02:38:08:000

Individual investors continue to be in an optimistic mood, although bullish sentiment did see a slight decline in the latest week. According to the weekly survey from AAII , bullish sentiment dropped from 43.5% down to 42.22%, which is still on the high side of the recent range. It's also t… read more...

It's A Dollar-Based Boom Shortage More Than Anything

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 02:34:13:000

Liquidity preferences are one of the least discussed economic concepts. There are several channels into which monetary instability can hamper the real economy. A "dollar" squeeze doesn't just impact banks, they often pass it along further down the economic chain. In its most extreme form, we… read more...

A Closer Look At Today's ADP Employment Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 02:04:06:000

By Jill Mislinski In Thursday morning's ADP employment report, we got the August estimate of 163K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a decrease over July's 217K . The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 10K, Lowest In Over 48 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 01:46:22:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending September 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 203,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 213,000. This is the lowest level for ini… read more...

Jobless Claims In Full 1969 Mode

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 01:32:48:000

Jobless claims continued to amaze this week, coming in at a level of 203K versus consensus expectations of 213K. At this level, first-time claims haven't been lower since December 1969. This week's report also marks a record 183 straight weeks where claims have come in at or below 300K, the 48… read more...

'Green Light' For The U.S. Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-06 07:35:34:000

By David Wismer With Labor Day now in the rear-view mirror, most schools are back in session, and fall weather is going to be very welcome in many parts of the U.S. It has been a brutally hot summer in several regions, including my home base in Connecticut. Sunday's heat index here was 9… read more...

Mind The Gap

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-06 04:17:25:000

By Philip Lawlor, Managing Director, Global Markets Research The chasm between the performance of US equities and the rest of the world grew bigger in the month of August as a strong USD and fears of a trade war boosted US stocks and created turmoil in emerging markets. US stocks fared b… read more...

What Is A Bear Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-06 02:03:46:000

For many in the investment business, the technical definition of a "bear market" is - statistically anyway - a 20% correction. Would you fire your advisor if the stock market saw a 20% correction in the next 4 weeks? Many would likely say "no", even though the statistical definition of a bea… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - September 5, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 08:40:55:000

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to inch up in August, reaching an annualized 5.0% - fractionally higher versus the estimate in the previous month . The projection reflects the annualized return over the estimated "risk-free" rate for the long run for GMI,… read more...

Between Order And Chaos In The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 08:06:49:000

Since December 1991, the S&P 500 has gone through 10 distinct periods of order and chaos when measured against the index's trailing-year dividends per share. Now for the latest trillion dollar question: Is the current trend, which we're marking from April 2016 onward, made up of one pe… read more...

Peter Schiff: A U.S. Stock Market Crash Is Long Overdue, But People Are Oblivious

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 07:22:17:000

By SchiffGold The Nasdaq had the biggest gain last month since the year 2000. In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff reminds us what happened right after that 2000 peak. The Nasdaq - it declined approximately 80% from peak to trough. So, the fact that we haven't had a month this str… read more...

Another Month, Another Record

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 05:30:34:000

The S&P 500 eclipsed the 2,900 level, and the Nasdaq jumped over 8,000 this month - both all-new record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also temporarily catapulted above 26,000 in August, but remains 2% shy of the January 2018 record highs. For the year, here are what the gains loo… read more...

Capex And Taxes; What The Corporate Sector Is Saying About The Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 05:19:18:000

Private US businesses are not building new facilities, or renovating old ones, at a rate that suggests the economy is doing well. Let alone booming. For more than two years now, the aggregate level of Private Non-residential Construction Spending has been flat. According to the Census Bureau… read more...

Unhappy Labor (Day)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 05:02:59:000

In November 1929, faced with the growing prospects for a serious economic reverse, President Herbert Hoover gathered the heads of major American industrial businesses to confer at the White House. Primary on his agenda was wages. For workers, depression was simple. Work was hard to find, but m… read more...

Report From Leen's Lodge

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 04:42:52:000

We start September with a cash reserve in our US equity ETF portfolios. Some details of our thinking follow. We wish our readers a happy post-Labor Day return to confront the 9-week run-up to the midterms. Other risk items include a possible government shutdown (not likely, in our view) and … read more...

U.S. Stocks: 3 Reasons To Invest Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 02:26:28:000

By David Wong and Scott Krauthamer US stocks continue to pose big questions for investors. After nine years of strong gains, concerns about market conditions are rife. But we think US stocks are more attractive than perceived for three main reasons. The skepticism is understandable. From… read more...

New Record Highs For S&P 500 In Final Week Of August 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-04 04:53:43:000

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) continued setting new highs during the fifth and final week of August 2018, with its highest closing value to date set at 2,914.04 on Wednesday, 29 August 2018. The index went on to finish the week slightly lower at 2,901.52 . The recent uptrend in stock price… read more...

The Investment Boom... Or Not

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-03 07:54:40:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on September 2, 2018 by Menzie Chinn here . Fixed nonresidential investment is rising at a rapid clip. However, there are some nuances to the headline story. Figure 1: Nonresidential fixed investment, in billions of Ch.2012$ (blu… read more...

Monthly S&P 500 Outlook For September 2018: Another Gain Of 3% Or More?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-03 06:20:24:000

But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one. - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional sto… read more...

Does A September Scare Lie Ahead?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-02 20:06:14:000

Equities posted an exemplary performance in August, exceeding the expectations of most analysts as several major averages posted new all-time highs. While the stock market is riding a major high heading into September, already there is talk that the month ahead could witness a huge disappointm… read more...

And Then, The Fall

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-02 10:28:42:000

Wall Street will return from summer vacation next week to a market narrative that features all manner of embedded contingencies. With summer in the rearview mirror, traders are now casting a wary eye towards fall, and geopolitics is front and center when it comes to market risks. When las… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings: How Much Earnings Growth Is Tax-Reform Related And A Year Of PE Contraction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-02 10:17:26:000

Updating the weekly numbers: (Thomson Reuters) Fwd 4-qtr est: $169.21 vs. last week's $169.13 PE ratio: 17x PEG ratio: 0.77x S&P 500 earnings yield: 5.83% vs. last week's 5.88% Year-over-year growth of fwd est: +22.39% vs. last week's +22.20% With o… read more...

Advancing Towards Full Employment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-01 12:42:43:000

It is commonly believed that the reason the labor force participation rate is historically low is due to the relatively large group of baby boomers retiring - a demographic shift. And many consider the workforce is nearing full employment. The graph below shows the participation rate for pri… read more...

Thinking About That Surge In Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-01 10:30:21:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on Aug. 31, 2018 by Menzie Chinn here . Two points from the 2018Q2 2nd release: GDO is smoother, and a breakout has not yet appeared. First, consider real GDP and real GDO (average of GDP and GDI) growth, q/q SAAR. Figure 1: Rea… read more...

When Will The Debt Trap Snap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-31 07:30:15:000

By Antony Mueller Since the end of the 19th century, the share of government in the gross domestic product has grown from below ten percent to around fifty percent in the industrialized countries. Fascism and Socialism were only the more extreme expressions of this tendency. The United Sta… read more...

Income And Spending Post Gains In July

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-31 06:33:48:000

By Robert Hughes Personal income rose 0.3 percent in July, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The gain in personal income was supported by a 0.4 percent increase in wages and salaries. Wages and salaries account for about half of personal income. Supplements to wages a… read more...

July 2018 Median Household Income

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-31 06:09:08:000

Median household income in the United States rose to $62,450 in July 2018, with Sentier Research reporting a 0.4% increase over its June 2018 estimate of $62,175. The following chart shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United St… read more...

The Next Recession Could Be A Bad One

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-31 05:11:18:000

US economic statistics are currently good. But the next recession could be bad. This American expansion has been long-lived. If it continues another year, it will equal the record 10-year expansion in the 1990s. Unemployment is low: 3.9% in July, as low as in 2000, during the Clinton Adminis… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 3K

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-31 00:59:00:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending August 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 210,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,… read more...

Jobless Claims Continue To Fall

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-31 00:51:03:000

Breaking last week's third straight week of declines, Thursday's initial jobless claims number came in slightly higher than expected at 213,000. Claims were estimated to rise to 212K off last week's low reading of 210K. As we have been mentioning over the past few weeks, even with this week's … read more...

In The Stock Market, Are Corporate Earnings Taking Over For The Fed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 14:50:30:000

Readers who have followed me over the past several years, know that I have attributed the strong, historically high stock market to the largesse of the Federal Reserve System. United States stock markets have done so well since the start of the current economic recovery because the Federal Res… read more...

Weekly Edge: Cautious Optimism Surrounds New U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 05:39:26:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel After months of negotiating a rework of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the U.S. and Mexico have reached a preliminary agreement. Noticeably absent from this agreement is a participant in the previous version of NAFTA: Canada…. read more...

Consumer Confidence Is Through The Roof; Spending, Not So Much

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 02:03:20:000

According to the Conference Board, US consumers are sky-high. The business association's index measuring consumer confidence jumped to a level it hasn't seen since the apex of the dot-com days. Though I'm not sure that's really a positive reflection on the economy, the mainstream verdict is, a… read more...

Tech, Consumer Discretionary Sectors Leading U.S. Stocks This Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-29 20:07:44:000

Shares of technology and consumer discretionary companies are dominating this year's horse race for US sector returns, based on a set of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Both slices of the US equity market are neck and neck through yesterday's close (August 28) for year-to-date performance, posti… read more...

Why We Think The U.S. Equity Bull Market Could Keep Running Into 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-29 03:41:59:000

By Grant Bowers Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Research Analyst, Franklin Equity Group Now that the US equity bull market has officially hit the history books as the longest on record, some observers are concerned it could soon stumble. Grant Bowers, vice president and portfolio manag… read more...

Technically Speaking: The Bull Market Resumes... For Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 08:33:53:000

Back in April, I penned an article laying out 10 reasons why, from a fundamental and technical perspective, the bull market may have ended. To wit : "I think the 9-year old bull market may have ended in February. I could be wrong. Actually, I hope that I am because managing money is far ea… read more...

U.S. Recession Risk Is Low, According To Current Q3 GDP Estimates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 08:14:03:000

The flattening yield curve has sparked worries that a new recession is near, but the near-term outlook for growth still looks healthy, based on the latest set of nowcasts for third quarter GDP, as compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median estimate points to a solid 3.3% increase for Q3 out… read more...

S&P 500 Sets 2 New Market Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 07:46:23:000

On Monday, August 27, 2018, the S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a new record high value of 2,896.74 . At the same time, it also broke its previous record for total market capitalization, bursting through the estimated $24.52 trillion mark that it had previously set back on January 26, 2018, to re… read more...

Breadth And Sentiment: The 'No BS Model'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 06:43:43:000

Readers know my appreciation of Bespoke's work, the firm started by Paul Hickey and his crew after coming out of Laszlo Birinyi's shop (and Laszlo published some pretty good research as well), and last Friday's weekly "Bespoke Report" was no disappointment for subscribers: On Market breadt… read more...

Chicago Fed: Moderate Growth In July

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 03:29:22:000

By Jill Mislinski " Index points to a moderation in economic growth in July. " This was the headline for Monday morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: "Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, th… read more...

Economists Battle The New World: What Is Going On And What Can Be Done?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-27 17:43:58:000

Judging be the reports coming out of the Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economists have reached an agreement that things are just not working the way they used to. But, what has changed? How has it changed? And, how should policy makers act in this new environment. He… read more...

Are Silver Shorts Feeling A Little Squeezed?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-27 08:50:56:000

The Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator Early Bird Weekend Update for August 24, 2018 covers gold, silver, crude, soybeans, wheat, E-mini S&P and Bitcoin. Gold Gold last traded at $1,210.40. It just completed the sell 2 (S2) level of $1,209 overnight. The average price of $1,196… read more...

The S&P 500 Reaches New Highs In The Doldrums Of Summer

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-27 06:22:53:000

It took 147 trading days to do it, but on Friday, August 24, 2018, the closing value of the S&P 500 (SPX) reached 2,874.69 , finally surpassing the previous record high closing value of 2,872.87 that it set back on Friday, January 26, 2018! At the same time, the fourth week of August … read more...

The Jackson Hole Pop

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 07:43:00:000

Jackson Hole Pop Get out your party hats ladies and gentlemen, the market closed at all-time highs on Friday, finally eclipsing the January peak. After 145 days of slogging, the "bull market is back, baby!" Well, at least for now. Last week, we discussed how the market has become d… read more...

Are S&P 500 Earnings Starting To Weaken? A Look At Q3 And Q4 '18's Estimates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 06:29:38:000

The link here is to Bob Doll's research piece found on Twitter on 8/24/18, and in the Nuveen research commentary, Bob wonders if "corporate" earnings will weaken in the second half of 2018. From an analytical perspective, and just to refresh readers' memories, what I look for as we come up… read more...

Global stocks sleepy ahead of Jackson Hole

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-24 05:08:04:000

Asian stocks ended mixed after the lack of meaningful forward progress on U.S.-China trade talks, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index trimming 0.4% on the day and the Shanghai Composite poking out a 0.2% gain . Japan's Nikkei ended the session up 0.9% and South Korea's Kospi Index rose 0…. read more...

Global stocks sleepy ahead of Jackson Hole

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-24 05:08:04:000

Asian stocks ended mixed after the lack of meaningful forward progress on U.S.-China trade talks, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index trimming 0.4% on the day and the Shanghai Composite poking out a 0.2% gain . Japan's Nikkei ended the session up 0.9% and South Korea's Kospi Index rose 0…. read more...

S&P 500 Estimate Revisions Remain Biased To Upside

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-24 02:40:22:000

The attached spreadsheet shows the trend in "upward" vs. "downward" revisions for the S&P 500, with highlighted boxes being the key weeks of earnings season when the majority of S&P 500 earnings report. Note the ratio of upward vs. downward revisions: although not shown, since Q1 '17… read more...

S&P 500 Estimate Revisions Remain Biased To Upside

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-24 02:40:22:000

The attached spreadsheet shows the trend in "upward" vs. "downward" revisions for the S&P 500, with highlighted boxes being the key weeks of earnings season when the majority of S&P 500 earnings report. Note the ratio of upward vs. downward revisions: although not shown, since Q1 '17… read more...

Marko Kolanovic's Risk-On Call And Why Bulls Should Hope For A Weaker Dollar

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-22 19:13:03:000

On Monday evening, I wrote something for this platform called " Another Day, Another Dollar ", in which I attempted to provide some helpful context for President Trump's latest comments about Fed policy, as published in an exclusive interview with Reuters. Simply put, the President would p… read more...

Marko Kolanovic's Risk-On Call And Why Bulls Should Hope For A Weaker Dollar

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-22 19:13:03:000

On Monday evening, I wrote something for this platform called " Another Day, Another Dollar ", in which I attempted to provide some helpful context for President Trump's latest comments about Fed policy, as published in an exclusive interview with Reuters. Simply put, the President would p… read more...

Is (Most Of) The S&P 500 Much Cheaper Than It Looks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-22 03:32:07:000

"S&P Hits an All-Time High." So ran a headline Tuesday on Bloomberg. The moment, at 12.54 pm, was fleeting - the index hit 2,873.05, a shade above 26 th January's close of 2,782.87. As I write it's at 2,871.98. Last week I started unpicking whether US stocks are still expensive, even aft… read more...

Is (Most Of) The S&P 500 Much Cheaper Than It Looks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-22 03:32:07:000

"S&P Hits an All-Time High." So ran a headline Tuesday on Bloomberg. The moment, at 12.54 pm, was fleeting - the index hit 2,873.05, a shade above 26 th January's close of 2,782.87. As I write it's at 2,871.98. Last week I started unpicking whether US stocks are still expensive, even aft… read more...

The Longest Bull Market In History. What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-22 02:12:04:000

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 will celebrate 3452 days, or 115 months, since its bear market low of 676 on March 9, 2009 - officially now the longest expansion since 1900. This table from Leuthold Group summarizes all the expansion cycles since 1900 up to January 26, 2018. Since then, of cours… read more...

The Longest Bull Market In History. What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-22 02:12:04:000

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 will celebrate 3452 days, or 115 months, since its bear market low of 676 on March 9, 2009 - officially now the longest expansion since 1900. This table from Leuthold Group summarizes all the expansion cycles since 1900 up to January 26, 2018. Since then, of cours… read more...

S&P 500 hits all-time high

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 13:04:04:000

The S&P 500 hits an all-time high , +0.5% to surpass the 2,872 level reached on Jan. 26. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF, Stocks on the move, Top Breaking stock news, News on ETFs, Read more … read more...

Tariffs And Draining The Swamp?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 09:01:50:000

Mr. David Malpass, at the US Treasury, will meet with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen in late August. This is excellent news. Dennis Gartman beat me to this on Thursday morning. I'm in complete agreement with Dennis' assessment: "Mr. Malpass, as everyone should remember, is an old … read more...

Lifetime Income Trajectories By Education Level For Full-Time, Year-Round Workers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 06:10:18:000

We've drilled down a bit deeper into the U.S. Census Bureau's data documenting the lifetime income trajectories that Americans have based on their level of education. Previously, we looked just at those trajectories for all Americans with some work experience for the years from 2000 throug… read more...

Is It Time For Value Stocks To Shine?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 06:07:00:000

Since 2008, US growth stocks (particularly in faster-growing sectors such as technology) have tended to perform better than US value stocks, as the chart below shows. As the performance gap between growth and value widens, more investors may be wondering when this dynamic between growth and … read more...

Monthly Macro Monitor - August

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 06:01:52:000

Read more … read more...

Inventories And The Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 05:28:37:000

Inventory investment is one of the factors driving the business cycle. One of the characteristics of most of the post-1990 experience is lowered inventory investment volatility (in the developed countries), although that changed around the Financial Crisis. I have some doubts that we could use… read more...

The Sound Of Inevitability: Peak Debt And Peak Prices

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-20 14:06:08:000

Speculative capital allocations move with extreme credit cycles through boom and bust. But in the end, sustained price appreciation requires new buyers who are able to buy assets from existing owners. Both groups now share a common problem: too much debt. We have been tracking the intersecti… read more...

S&P 500 Rises As Turkey Concerns Offset By Improved Trade Deal Prospects, Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-20 14:01:36:000

The doldrums of summer are here, which perhaps explains why investor reaction to geopolitical news would seem to be the only thing really moving the needle for the S&P 500 in the third week of August 2018. After last week's concerns over the risk of contagion from Turkey's economic dil… read more...

Minimum Wage Facts And Fantasies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-20 06:37:56:000

For years I've had fun at cocktail parties by asking this question: What percent of all the people who work in the U.S. are paid minimum wage or less? Of the hundreds of people I've asked, only one has come even close to the right answer. The great majority of the answers I've received (try it… read more...

This Is The Data That Will Lead The Market To New Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-19 15:52:56:000

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators is one of my favorite economic releases, and the July read was a good one. The index jumped 0.6% following a 0.5% increase in June and a 0.1% increase in May. The May reading was revised up by a tenth adding extra strength to the data, data … read more...

VRA Update: A Strong US Is A Strong Global Economy. U.S. - China Trade Talks Back On. Lowest Youth Unemployment In 52 Years!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-19 14:43:14:000

Good Friday morning all. Following a big (bullish) day higher yesterdaywith solid market internals here are my thoughts this morning. Buy the dip is evolving into aggressively buy the dip for U.S. stocks. This bodes well for our markets as we finish the yea… read more...

'Everybody Knew This Was Coming'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-19 13:46:44:000

Lets face it: virtually everybody knew this was coming. But in the frantic QE-inspired hunt for yield, nobody cared. That's from the latest note penned by SocGen's Albert Edwards and he is of course talking about the ongoing trials and tribulations of emerging market assets (hereafte… read more...

Squirrels

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-19 08:04:29:000

Squirrels I had suggested last week that a retest of support at 2,800 would be a possibility as the market had gotten very overbought as it approached the January highs. "With moving averages rising, this shifts Pathway #2a and #2b further out into the August and September time … read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: A Message From Jackson Hole?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-19 07:16:57:000

The economic calendar is light, and many are already on vacation. Even actual economic news has not competed with the what can we talk about on a slow Friday story over the last few weeks. The real news this week begins with the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and ends with Chairman … read more...

U.S. Markets Likely To Recouple With Global Equities - Correction Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-18 13:23:49:000

In our Q3 2018 newsletter ( And Then There Were None ), we highlighted three concerns we felt could ultimately weigh on the US markets, causing them to resync with global equities, which have been declining for most of the year. Though we still believe it is too early to make a call for a prot… read more...

The Wage Test

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-18 12:51:56:000

In August 2014, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen described the wage dilemma in some detail. She was still relatively new to the job at that time, and there was pressure on her from among the so-called hawks to more aggressively normalize monetary policy. Ben Bernanke had taken the mo… read more...

The Longest Bull Market In History And What Happens Next

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-18 10:00:46:000

"Barring a breathtaking plunge, the bull market in U.S. stocks on Aug. 22 will become the longest in history, and optimistic investors argue it has miles to go before it rests." - Sue Chang, MarketWatch Depending on how you measure beginnings and endings, or what constitutes a bear m… read more...

Mortgage Delinquencies At Multi-Decade Lows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-18 06:29:47:000

Earlier this week, we noted that the New York Fed's quarterly household debt data showed a collapse in the share of consumers facing collections for bad debts. On Thursday, quarterly data from the Mortgage Bankers' Association relating to mortgage bankruptcy and delinquency showed similar re… read more...

Danielle's Bi-Weekly Market Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-18 06:24:02:000

Danielle was a guest today with Jim Goddard on Talk Digital Network talking about recent trends in the world economy and market. Disclosure: No Read more … read more...

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Increased Growth In July

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-18 05:56:16:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index ((LEI)) for July increased to 110.7 from 110.0 in June. The Coincident Economic Index ((CEI)) came in at 104.2, up from 104.0 the previous month. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased again in July, wi… read more...

U.S. Business Cycle Risk Report - 17 August 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-18 05:33:47:000

Geopolitical risk is rising, but if there's a price to pay in terms of sharply softer economic growth or worse for the US, it's not showing up in the numbers, at least not yet. With most of the July data published, the macro profile remains upbeat and near-term projections suggest the positive… read more...

Concentrate!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-17 11:20:32:000

We often hear how concentrated the gains in the U.S. stock market are today . But how truly concentrated is todays market? And why might it matter to investors going forward? What does concentration even mean? Put simply, when fewer and fewer stocks are primarily responsible for d… read more...

Bespoke's S&P 500 Sector Weightings Report - August 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-17 07:53:47:000

S&P 500 sector weightings are important to monitor. Over the years, when weightings have gotten extremely lopsided for one or two sectors, it hasn't ended well. Below is a table showing S&P 500 sector weightings from the mid-1990s through 2016. In the early 1990s, before the Dot Com bu… read more...

Trump asks SEC to review six-month earnings periods

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-17 07:51:19:000

President Trump says he's asked the SEC to study going to six-month reporting for corporate earnings, instead of quarterly. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Invesco QQQ ETF, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, News on the U.S. economy, Financial stocks news, News on ETFs, … read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: July Real Retail Sales

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-17 07:50:24:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: With the release of July Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandabl… read more...

Services And Production Decisions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-17 07:30:07:000

One of the problems with many theoretical approaches to the business cycle is that there is an implicit bias towards a manufacturing economy. The modelling of business sector decision making for manufacturing is quite different than for the service sector. This matters, as the developed econom… read more...

U.S. stocks poised for a breather after yesterday's spike

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-17 05:56:50:000

U.S. stock futures waver between small gains and losses following yesterday's strong gains which included the Dow's biggest advance since April, mostly in reaction to positive trade developments between the U.S. and China. More news on: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 ET… read more...

Historical Bull And Bear Markets Of The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-17 02:30:57:000

There's been plenty of chatter lately about the current bull market becoming the "longest on record." Below is an updated look at the length of the current bull market compared to past bull markets for the S&P 500. First things first, though. Until the S&P 500 closes at a new high, J… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 2K, Beats Forecast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-17 02:04:22:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending August 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,00… read more...

Death, Taxes, And Strong Jobless Claims Reports

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-17 01:37:08:000

Yeah, jobless claims are starting to get that dependable in terms of delivering a strong weekly print. This week's report was no different, as first-time claims came in at 212K versus estimates of 215K. So now it's time to update the streaks. This week's report was the record 180th straight we… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Still Appears To Be Ascendant

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 18:06:09:000

The rate of growth of the United States economy still seems to be on an upward path. Industrial production for the month of July came in 4.2 percent ahead of last July. This year-over-year figure was up from a revised 4.1 percent increase in June and an overall 3.3 percent increase, year-ove… read more...

The Day The Stock Market Music Died

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 16:52:49:000

The U.S. stock bull market is alive and well . While a breakout by the S&P 500 Index above its January peak remains elusive, it seems only a matter of time before the fresh new all-time high confetti is once again falling from the rafters. But underneath the market surface, a disconcertin… read more...

Why The Potential Interest Rate Increases Are Having Limited Impact On Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 12:13:33:000

Interactive Brokers chief options strategist Steve Sosnick discusses why the Federal Reserve's potential plans to increase interest rates are not having a major impact on U.S. markets. [ Note: This material was originally published on IBKR Traders' Insight on August 14, 2018.] Th… read more...

Spring 2018 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 10:19:14:000

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings. This time around, we find that the projected future for S&am… read more...

Technically Speaking For August 15

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-15 17:57:55:000

Are we starting to see weakness in China as a result of trade sanctions? Prime Minister Xi is probably one of the most capable and ruthless politicians we've seen for some time. However, according to yesterday's New York Times , the trade issue is rattling the cages within the Chinese gover… read more...

Inverted U.S. Yield Curve? Recession? Not So Fast

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-15 12:29:38:000

By Eric Winograd Many investors have started to scrutinize the shape of the US Treasury yield curve, worried that a potential yield-curve inversion would mean imminent recession. In our view, things aren't that simple. The yield curve has flattened considerably since the Federal Reserve … read more...

Household Debt And Credit Report: Up By $82 Billion In Q2

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-15 10:00:15:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest household debt for Q2 2018 was up 0.6% from Q1 and currently at $13.29T and at its peak. Here is an excerpt from the latest press release: NEW YORK-The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Ho… read more...

Small Business Survey Says...

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-15 08:56:42:000

On Tuesday, the NFIB released its monthly reading on small business sentiment. As we noted in our Chart of the Day (subscription required), small business sentiment hit its highest level since 1983 in July. That's quite an impressive reading! In addition to its main sentiment indicator, … read more...

3 Things I Think I Think - Shrinkage, Inflation And Trickle Down

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-15 08:20:09:000

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Shrinkage in the markets! There has been a lot of chatter lately about the shrinking of the public markets. This NY Times piece says the shrinkage is a problem for everyone. It cites this excellent NBER piece by people much smarter t… read more...

Ep 73: Can The Market Continue Its Run Through The End Of 2018?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-15 07:26:50:000

This week brings us to the midpoint of the September quarter, and there is quite a bit going on despite it being the dog days of summer. From contagion concerns spilling over from Turkey to escalating tariffs between the US and China, more signs of inflation heating up even as more econom… read more...

It Doesn't Matter All That Much How Long It Takes For Return Predictions To Work

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-15 06:51:27:000

Original Post By Rob Bennett Robert Shiller made a prediction in a paper published in 1996 . He wrote: "The market is quite likely to decline substantially in value over the succeeding ten years; it appears that long run investors should stay out of the market for the next decade." Th… read more...

Small Business Optimism Is Huge

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-15 06:32:21:000

Economic growth is a function of two major factors: growth in the number of people working, and growth in the output of those working (i.e., the productivity of labor). For most of the current business cycle expansion, which has been the weakest post-war expansion on record, productivity has b… read more...

Technically Speaking: 'It Can Only Go Up From Here'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-14 09:25:23:000

This past weekend , I discussed the correction last Friday as concerns over "Turkey Turmoil" grabbed headlines. "The market did indeed attempt to test all-time highs this past week, but, as noted, the overbought condition provided the fuel for a correction given the right catalyst. That… read more...

Near Record Small Business Optimism

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-14 09:09:00:000

As I review and highlight business and consumer optimism, I feel as though my thoughts are a bit like a broken record that plays the same song over and over again. With that, another business optimism survey is highly positive. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported th… read more...

Early Estimates See Slower-But-Still-Strong Growth For U.S. Q3 GDP

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-14 08:38:09:000

The first official third-quarter report on US GDP is more than two months away, but the preliminary nowcasts point to a softer-but-still-solid gain, based on several estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The question is whether escalating trade war tension and Turkey's financial crisis … read more...

Best And Worst Performing Sectors On Earnings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-14 04:44:05:000

More than 2,000 companies have now reported their Q2 earnings results since early July, including 422 S&P 500 companies. Below we show the average one-day price change for stocks on their earnings reaction days broken out by sector and whether the stock is in the S&P 500 or not. The … read more...

Profit Margins: Where Are They Going?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-13 22:33:10:000

US profit margins, many think, are nearing a peak. What do you think? Nicole Bullock writes in the Financial Times : Profit margins at US companies have risen to their highest level in at least a decades… With 90 percent of companies in the S&P 500 h... read more...

Winter Is Coming: Protecting Your Portfolio In A Bear Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-13 15:07:42:000

Trade war fears and the economic crisis in Turkey created plenty of concerns among global investors last week. Nobody knows for certain how these factors will affect stock markets in the medium term, but the fact remains that the stock market is inherently volatile and hard to predict. A bear … read more...

The S&P 500 In The Week When Turkey Happened

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-13 07:04:06:000

The second full week of August 2018 was mostly uneventful for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX). From Monday, 6 August 2018 through Thursday, 9 August 2018, the index teased the possibility of topping its previous high record of 2,872.87 that was set back on 26 January 2018. And then, for lac… read more...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-12 14:54:17:000

By Jill Mislinski This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 147.8, up fractionally from the previous week. Year over year, the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.50%, down from 2.64% last week. The WLI Growth… read more...

Get Ready For: Declines, Recoveries, And Growth - Blog #537

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-12 08:50:38:000

One of the prior major stock market declines was signaled when the O'Hare airport authorities would not let United Airlines (UAL) sell its gate positions to reduce its debt. We may be approaching a similar signal. Media reports that after 31 years of owning the management company for Oppenheim… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings: Growth In Forward Estimate Continues To Hit All-Time Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-11 12:48:28:000

Here's the data: Fwd 4-qtr est: $169.25 vs. last week's $169.24 PE ratio: 16.7x PEG ratio: 0.75x S&P 500 earnings yield: +5.97% vs. last week's +5.96% Year-over-year growth of fwd estimate: +22.38% vs. last week's +22.27% (Source: Thomson Reuters IB… read more...

AIER Everyday Price Index Falls 0.1% As A Drop In Gasoline Overshadows A Rise In Food

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-11 11:17:23:000

By Robert Hughes AIER's Everyday Price Index fell 0.1 percent in July while the Consumer Price Index was unchanged for the month. The EPI measures price changes people see in everyday purchases such as groceries, restaurant meals, gasoline, and utilities. The EPI is not seasonally adjusted… read more...

CPI And PPI Continue To Hint At Creeping Inflationary Pressures

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-10 15:36:06:000

On Thursday, August 9 the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index or PPI for July, which measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices compiled by the Bureau are for the first commercial transaction … read more...

Another Highly Optimistic Business Owners Survey

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-10 09:20:07:000

Many of the consumer and business sentiment surveys continue to be reported at or near record levels. I highlighted a few of these high level optimism surveys last month in a post titled " Sentiment Is Widely Positive ." Earlier this week, Gallup released the results of the quarterly Wells Fa… read more...

Sentiment Measures Not At Extremes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-10 02:27:29:000

Keeping in mind sentiment data is contrarian in nature and most predictive at its extremes, today's American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey report shows bullish sentiment increased over seven percentage points to 36.36%. The plus and minus one standard deviation levels … read more...

July Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.1% MoM

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-10 01:51:03:000

By Jill Mislinski Thursday's release of the July Producer Price Index ((PPI)) for Final Demand came in at 0.0% month over month seasonally adjusted, down from last month's 0.3%. It is at 3.3% year over year, down from 3.4% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (… read more...

Bonds Continue On Their Ugly Path

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-09 06:15:00:000

In 2008, the global economic crisis in the form of a housing and mortgage-backed securities debacle in the United States and a sovereign debt issue in Europe hit markets across all asset classes like a ton of bearish bricks. The risk-off period in late 2008 caused fear and uncertainty sending … read more...

The Heroic Assumptions Behind Today's Unprecedented Equity Valuations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-09 01:11:21:000

The following is an excerpt of a recent market comment that first appeared at The Felder Report Premium . What is the opposite of a margin of safety? That is a question this market has had me asking myself for some time now. A margin of safety is a discount to intrinsic value that provi… read more...

Consumer Credit, Taxes, And Revisions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-08 10:58:27:000

Americans are eschewing credit cards in 2018. Outside of a big jump in revolving credit balances in May, through June 2018 the Federal Reserve reports only small gains in the total aggregate balance. Given, however, the propensity of this data to be significantly revised, we can't really be su… read more...

A Quick Look At The New Communication Sector And Expected S&P 500 2019 Growth Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-08 06:46:51:000

David Aurelio of Thomson Reuters is very helpful in getting good sector information on the Thomson Reuters IBES data on the 11 S&P 500 sectors. David has never failed to deliver when asked a question. Recently this blog asked David about the coming advent of the new "Communications sec… read more...

Technically Speaking For August 6

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 10:39:07:000

Where are the rallies? We've been in the middle of trade wars for about 6-8 months now. World equity markets are not happy: Above are the ETFs that track most of the globe's stock markets. The SPYs are doing well. All the others? Not so much. Emerging markets (top row, far right) have tak… read more...

Value Investing For U.S. Equities Continues To Rebound

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 08:35:31:000

Several months ago, I reviewed the case for thinking that the long-suffering value factor for US equity investing was in the process of reviving. At the time, the evidence was sketchy but the outlook was encouraging. Fast forward to early August and the bullish trend looks a bit stronger for… read more...

Secular Trends In Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 05:25:59:000

By Jill Mislinski The Department of Labor has monthly data on employment by industry categories reaching back to 1939. At the highest level, all jobs are categorized in either Service-Providing Industries or Goods Producing Industries. The adjacent chart illustrates the ratio of the two si… read more...

Dissecting The Trading Day

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 05:05:53:000

Back in January, we published a Chart of the Day (you can read it here ) for Bespoke members that raised quite a few eyebrows. Investors just couldn't get over one of our findings. What was it? It was that since 1993, when the S&P 500 tracking SPY ETF began trading, all of its share p… read more...

The S&P 500 In The Week When Apple's Market Cap Reached $1 Trillion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 04:42:05:000

We're definitely on the backside of 2018-Q2's earnings reporting season, where the pace of news about the previous quarters' earnings is slowing and investors are turning their attention toward other diversions. In the first week of August 2018, the biggest diversion was the news that Apple … read more...

State Of The Economy Part 2: Bull Market To Set Record As Economic Strength Hits 6-Month High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-06 07:45:36:000

(Source: imgflip ) Note that due to reader requests I've decided to break up my weekly portfolio updates into three parts: commentary, economic update, portfolio summary, stats, & watch lists. This is to avoid excessively long articles and maximize the utility to my readers. This … read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Earnings: A Little Softening In Tech And Energy Growth Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-05 09:37:42:000

It might be hardly worth mentioning, but looking at the data every week, it's important to distinguish sentiment from reality, and for the Energy and Tech sectors, there has been a little bit of softening in Q2 and Q3 '18's expected earnings growth rates: Energy's expected growth rate is n… read more...

The Stock Market Is At A Crossroads

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 06:15:00:000

The stock market is coming to the end of the second quarter earnings season, and for many companies, the impact of corporate tax reform bolstered earnings and the prospects for profits in the coming months, and perhaps years. Stocks remain near record levels, and optimism about the future of… read more...

The Stock Market Is At A Crossroads

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 06:15:00:000

The stock market is coming to the end of the second quarter earnings season, and for many companies, the impact of corporate tax reform bolstered earnings and the prospects for profits in the coming months, and perhaps years. Stocks remain near record levels, and optimism about the future of… read more...

Value Still Waiting For A Catalyst

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 05:28:52:000

Value continues to look cheap, however predicting when it will begin to outperform is challenging. Russ suggests one potential catalyst: an unexpected acceleration in nominal economic growth. The view that value looks cheap has become axiomatic; when value will actually start outperforming… read more...

Value Still Waiting For A Catalyst

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 05:28:52:000

Value continues to look cheap, however predicting when it will begin to outperform is challenging. Russ suggests one potential catalyst: an unexpected acceleration in nominal economic growth. The view that value looks cheap has become axiomatic; when value will actually start outperforming… read more...

Weekly Edge: Mixed Earnings Season Provides Renewed Market Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 04:26:56:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel This earnings season has been a wild one so far, thanks in part to tech companies reporting earnings on both ends of the spectrum. Some of the companies that beat earnings estimates beat by a wide margin. Amazon (AMZN), notably, reported earni… read more...

Weekly Edge: Mixed Earnings Season Provides Renewed Market Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 04:26:56:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel This earnings season has been a wild one so far, thanks in part to tech companies reporting earnings on both ends of the spectrum. Some of the companies that beat earnings estimates beat by a wide margin. Amazon (AMZN), notably, reported earni… read more...

U.S. Housing At Mid-Year: Hitting Some Turbulence

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 04:07:21:000

By Jonas Goltermann, Developed Market Economist With the US housing market a bit weak in the second quarter, there could be a pick-up in the second half of the year. Sales have fallen… After a strong start to the year, the US housing market has gone through a bit of a rough patch... read more...

U.S. Housing At Mid-Year: Hitting Some Turbulence

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 04:07:21:000

By Jonas Goltermann, Developed Market Economist With the US housing market a bit weak in the second quarter, there could be a pick-up in the second half of the year. Sales have fallen… After a strong start to the year, the US housing market has gone through a bit of a rough patch... read more...

Construction Problems

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 01:27:41:000

Total construction spending rose 5.5% year over year (unadjusted) in June 2018. On a seasonally adjusted basis, spending fell rather sharply two months ago, though that doesn't really matter given the short-term noise of month-to-month changes. The real problem is this 5.5%, given that public … read more...

Construction Problems

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 01:27:41:000

Total construction spending rose 5.5% year over year (unadjusted) in June 2018. On a seasonally adjusted basis, spending fell rather sharply two months ago, though that doesn't really matter given the short-term noise of month-to-month changes. The real problem is this 5.5%, given that public … read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income In June

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 01:08:20:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: This commentary has been updated to include Tuesday morning's release of the June data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income In June

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 01:08:20:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: This commentary has been updated to include Tuesday morning's release of the June data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague… read more...

July Employment Report Preview

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 00:40:32:000

Heading into Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls ((NFP)) report for July, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 192K, which would be a decline from June's solid reading of 213K. In the private sector, economists are expecting an increase of 190K. The unemployment rate is expected to tick … read more...

July Employment Report Preview

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 00:40:32:000

Heading into Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls ((NFP)) report for July, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 192K, which would be a decline from June's solid reading of 213K. In the private sector, economists are expecting an increase of 190K. The unemployment rate is expected to tick … read more...

Chicago PMI At 6-Month High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 06:08:47:000

By Jill Mislinski The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, is similar to the national ISM Manufacturing indicator but at a regional level, and is seen by many as an indicator of the larger US economy. It is a composite diffusion indicator made up… read more...

Chicago PMI At 6-Month High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 06:08:47:000

By Jill Mislinski The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, is similar to the national ISM Manufacturing indicator but at a regional level, and is seen by many as an indicator of the larger US economy. It is a composite diffusion indicator made up… read more...

New High For High Yield Debt

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 04:30:07:000

As we've seen some of the highest-flying stocks in the market pullback in the last couple of days, we haven't seen much of an uptick in other market measures of risk. Since last Wednesday's close (which was the day Facebook (FB) reported), the VIX has only risen one point, from 12.29 to 13.29…. read more...

New High For High Yield Debt

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 04:30:07:000

As we've seen some of the highest-flying stocks in the market pullback in the last couple of days, we haven't seen much of an uptick in other market measures of risk. Since last Wednesday's close (which was the day Facebook (FB) reported), the VIX has only risen one point, from 12.29 to 13.29…. read more...

They Changed The Savings Rate, At Least

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 04:26:34:000

I wrote back in August 2016 out of frustration. There were any number of topics to have become flustered over at the time, but on this particular occasion, it was the personal savings rate. Because it is, like productivity, essentially a plug in between two statistics whenever those two part… read more...

They Changed The Savings Rate, At Least

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 04:26:34:000

I wrote back in August 2016 out of frustration. There were any number of topics to have become flustered over at the time, but on this particular occasion, it was the personal savings rate. Because it is, like productivity, essentially a plug in between two statistics whenever those two part… read more...

Ranking The Worst-Ever One-Day Stock Market Cap Crashes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 07:11:39:000

On Thursday, 26 July 2018, the shareholders of Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) experienced the worst ever rout of an individual stock in stock market history, as they collectively lost over $119 billion in just one day. Facebook on Thursday posted the largest one-day loss in market value by … read more...

Is The Value Style Really In Favor Now?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 04:39:06:000

It seems as though I have written a dozen or more articles on the value versus growth style during the current economic cycle. The extent to which growth has dominated has certainly been a little surprising. For most of the equity market's upward move since the bottom of the financial crisis, … read more...

A Great Second-Quarter Report - But Beware The Context

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 04:19:54:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on July 27, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . Following up on Jim's post on the GDP release , here are four observations. GDP Growth Is Good, but Not Spectacular, Either on a q/q or y/y Basis Over the past 11-1/2 years, there have b… read more...

The S&P 500 In The Week When Facebook Crashed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 02:50:50:000

It's not often that we can summarize what happened to the S&P 500 during the course of a week in terms of a single stock, but the record-setting one-day decline in the market's valuation of Facebook (NASDAQ: FB ) made the story of that single company's fall the major market moving new… read more...

How Good Can It Get?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 01:23:34:000

By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist Friday's GDP release showing growth at 4.1% is clearly positive news. Consumer spending contributed 2.7 percentage points to growth, followed by fixed investment (0.94 percentage point largely offset by a negative 1.0… read more...

Real GDP Growth Rebounds Sharply In The Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 00:56:55:000

By Robert Hughes Real gross domestic product rose at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, up from a revised 2.2 percent pace in the first quarter of 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth was driven by strong gains in consumer spending, business investme… read more...

State Of The Economy Part 1: Q2 GDP Blowout And Stronger Growth Likely To Continue

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-30 06:26:28:000

(Source: imgflip ) Note that due to reader requests I've decided to break up my weekly portfolio updates into three parts: commentary, economic update, portfolio summary, stats, & watch lists. This is to avoid excessively long articles and maximize the utility to my readers. Int… read more...

Q2 2018 Earnings - A Couple Of Flies In The Ointment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-29 09:29:52:000

The Bespoke Report is - in my opinion - one of the best weekly summaries of market-related, and econ-related and investment-related topics on the Street. Bespoke, founded by Paul Hickey and his team years ago, came out of Laszlo Birinyi's firm, and I've always told readers the Bespoke work is … read more...

The FAANG-Nary In The Coal Mine

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-29 08:31:50:000

Two weeks ago, I issued a report to Peak Prosperity's premium subscribers, warning of an imminent downwards re-pricing of the FAANG stocks. I even made a rare recommendation for taking an active short position against them (one now up 18%). That report proved quite timely. Over the past 10… read more...

U.S. GDP Growth Rate Surges. Did Markets Care?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-28 14:49:42:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Adam Goff, managing director, investment practice, and Consulting Director Sophie Antal Gilbert discussed U.S. gross domestic product growth for the second quarter, a potential softening in trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, and sec… read more...

What The Big Second Quarter GDP Numbers Mean

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-28 14:24:03:000

By Mickey Levy This morning's announcement of the second quarter (Q2) GDP numbers shows that the U.S. economy is in good shape. Real GDP advanced 4.1%, the fastest rate of growth since the third quarter of 2014. That puts average growth in the first half of 2018 at 3.1%. This strong perf… read more...

They Changed GDP, At Least

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-28 12:48:18:000

This is one of those times where so much has happened that in the end it amounts to so very little. The latest GDP estimates included a sharp rise in the current estimates, a reworking of past estimates that seemed to have made the economy much richer, but behind all that the same economic pic… read more...

3 Things I Think I Think - GDP, Housing And Bad Narratives

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-28 09:56:49:000

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Q2 GDP - More bleh than expected. For all the talk about how great the Q2 GDP was going to be, I have to say that I wasn't really that impressed. The year-over-year rate comes in at 2.8% which is not really that impressive. Prices were u… read more...

Great Second-Quarter GDP Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-28 08:48:39:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on July 27, 2018, by James Hamilton here . The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter. That's significantly better than the 2.2% average growth we've seen since … read more...

What Are You Talking About!?!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-27 11:00:56:000

The Wall Street Journal left me scratching my head on Thursday afternoon. The financial newspaper posted an article entitled Outflows From U.S. Stocks Swell as Investors Seek Refuge in Bonds discussing how Investors are fleeing U.S. stocks at a rapid clip as ongoing market vola… read more...

Bullish Sentiment Declines For The Second Straight Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-27 01:58:41:000

In the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has rallied 1.5% and broken out above significant resistance at the 2,800 level. With that kind of move, you would expect to see an uptick in optimism from individual investors. Based on the latest AAII survey data, though, we have seen the opposite. Acco… read more...

Invest Like Dalio Or Like Bogle? Passive Wins (For Now)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-26 04:47:00:000

LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!! Good evening and welcome to tonight's boxing match, which promises to be a classic in every sense of the word! In the red corner, weighing in at $122 billion actively managed AUM and the man known only as… Ray Bridgewater Dalio! And in the blue cor... read more...

The Top Of GDP

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-25 08:49:00:000

In 1999, real GDP growth in the United States was 4.69% (Q4 over Q4). In 1998, it was 4.9989%. These were annual not quarterly rates, meaning that for two years straight, GDP expanded by better than 4.5%. Individual quarters within those years obviously varied, but at the end of the day, t… read more...

Market Commentary - July 19, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-25 07:29:29:000

Read more … read more...

Chicago Fed: Rebound In June

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-24 09:47:17:000

By Jill Mislinski " Index Points to a Rebound in Economic Growth in June. " This is the headline for Monday morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: "Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chica… read more...

The Future For S&P 500 Dividends Through The End Of 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-24 09:29:10:000

We're going to cover more than one dividend-related topic in this post, so if your time is limited, here's the short and sweet summary: According to quarterly dividend futures, dividends are set to grow in 2018-Q3 but be flat in 2018-Q4. According to annual dividend futures, quarterly di… read more...

Master Limited Partnerships

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-24 00:54:57:000

Readers of these missives know that we have been favorable on the midstream Master Limited Partnership ((MLP)) space for a number of months. The reasons for that strategy have often been mentioned in these letters. First, the midstream MLPs sold off when the upstream MLPs blew up, with most of… read more...

Investors Split Their Forward-Looking Attention As Market Nears Record Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-23 06:17:43:000

Earnings season for 2018-Q3 is off to a positive start , and with the S&P 500 now just 2% away from setting new records, investors have shifted a portion of their forward-looking attention away from 2019-Q1 to focus on the current quarter. At least, that's one interpretation that expl… read more...

Is The U.S. Economy Really Going To Pop 4.5% In Q2?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-23 05:02:09:000

At least one of them is very wrong: Atlanta Fed GDPNow v. New York Fed Nowcast On July 27, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its "advance estimate" of GDP growth for the second quarter. Based on preliminary and incomplete data, this number is what everyone puts under the mic… read more...

From Buenos Aires With (No) Love

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-21 13:18:42:000

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is wheels down in Buenos Aires for the G-20 meeting and he's facing a tough crowd. On Friday evening, in " And Now, Commence The Currency War ", I talked at length about the market implications of President Trump's CNBC interview and followup tweets, in whi… read more...

From Buenos Aires With (No) Love

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-21 13:18:42:000

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is wheels down in Buenos Aires for the G-20 meeting and he's facing a tough crowd. On Friday evening, in " And Now, Commence The Currency War ", I talked at length about the market implications of President Trump's CNBC interview and followup tweets, in whi… read more...

Thomson Reuters Lipper U.S. Mutual Funds & ETPs Q2 2018 Snapshot

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-20 10:18:02:000

Picture Source: Reuters/Brendan McDermid. Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New York In this issue of Lippers U.S. Mutual Funds & Exchange-Traded Products Snapshot, we feature a summary of total net assets (TNA), estimated net flows, new fund creations, and fund liquida… read more...

This Isn't Your Grandfather's Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-20 05:11:39:000

By FS Staff Listen to this podcast on our site by clicking here or subscribe for a free trial by clicking here Gary Dorsch at Global Money Trends recently told Financial Sense Newshour that this will likely be the longest bull market in history with a powerful tri… read more...

Hard To Find Much Bad News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-20 00:34:08:000

One could certainly say the current economic expansion is long in the tooth, i.e., the second-longest on record. As we also wrote in our summer Investor Letter , the headlines on news reports seem a lot worse than reality. Personally, I stopped tuning into the daily television business shows … read more...

Why Small-Cap Indexes Are An Economic Barometer

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-19 03:59:10:000

By Evan Peterson Remember the Trump bump? The post-2016 election climb in U.S. equity indexes was signaled first in small-cap indexes. The Russell 2000 index of small caps climbed 14.3 percent following the election, its highest post-election climb since its inception in 1979 . Sma… read more...

What Will Happen When The Market Has A Down Year?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-19 02:00:39:000

Global equity markets continued to advance. Last week's newsletter noted the importance of closing the week above the all-important 2750 level in the EMINI SP500 Sept contract. We knew this level was huge, considering the close below on June 29th sent the contract below our 7-week moving avera… read more...

Why The Critics Are Wrong About Low Stock Market Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-19 01:04:49:000

Over my past few articles, I've shared some sectors that investors should avoid. As interest rates continue to rise over the next 12-24 months, there will be some winners and losers in the economy. The United States (and Canadian ) real estate markets are likely to cool down. However, stock… read more...

Records Are Made To Be Broken

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-17 06:29:45:000

Viewing the New York City skyline from afar last month, I noticed something strange. I could no longer name a number of the tallest buildings. The Empire State Building, the Chrysler Building, and the World Trade Center were readily identifiable. But a new crop of skyscrapers had emerged fro… read more...

Records Are Made To Be Broken

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-17 06:29:45:000

Viewing the New York City skyline from afar last month, I noticed something strange. I could no longer name a number of the tallest buildings. The Empire State Building, the Chrysler Building, and the World Trade Center were readily identifiable. But a new crop of skyscrapers had emerged fro… read more...

The U.S. Has 99 Trade War Problems, But Inflation Isn't One

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-17 05:32:38:000

As President Trump ratchets up the trade war with China and as he threatens import tariffs on European automobiles, there are many reasons to be concerned about intensified U.S. trade protection. This is especially the case in so far as those actions might negatively impact both the U.S. and… read more...

The U.S. Has 99 Trade War Problems, But Inflation Isn't One

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-17 05:32:38:000

As President Trump ratchets up the trade war with China and as he threatens import tariffs on European automobiles, there are many reasons to be concerned about intensified U.S. trade protection. This is especially the case in so far as those actions might negatively impact both the U.S. and… read more...

The S&P 500 Claws Its Way Back Above 2800

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-16 05:57:30:000

The second week of July 2018 saw the S&P 500 finally claw its way back above the 2,800 level, closing the week at the highest level that it has been since the end of January 2018. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues to fall within our "redzone" forecast range, which runs between June … read more...

BitCoin And Sexy Investing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-16 02:33:41:000

We have been telling you to keep an eye on Bitcoin as an indicator of risk. Since we last wrote about bitcoin two weeks ago, it rallied 14% and we saw a subsequent rally in equity markets here in the US. Coincidence? Probably not. Bitcoin is an illiquid, fast-moving market. It may be giving us… read more...

Weekly S&P 500 Earnings Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-16 02:04:11:000

From Thomson Reuters "This Week in Earnings": Forward 4-qtr est.: $168.26 vs. last week's $168.23 P/E ratio: 16.6x PEG ratio: 0.79x S&P 500 earnings yield: +6.01% vs. last week's 6.10% Year-over-year growth of forward est.: +21.14 vs. last week's +20.85% This week, per Thom… read more...

10 Years On, Did The Bailouts Work?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-15 16:24:54:000

The answer to the title is yes and no. It depends upon who you are. If you own assets, it probably helped you. If not, it probably hurt you. Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 allowed the Department of Treasury to buy bad assets from banks. As you … read more...

S&P 500 Breakout Looks Imminent - Buy Before It's Too Late

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-15 13:39:42:000

Source Summer stock market activity continues to power along, as investors remain cautious under the spectre of growing trade war rhetoric. As is often the case, slower trading volumes have created tighter price ranges and a feeling of generalized complacency in equities. But it should b… read more...

Bull's 'Maginot' Line

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-15 07:51:34:000

Bull's Maginot Line "The Maginot Line, named after the French Minister of War Andr Maginot, was a line of concrete fortifications, obstacles, and weapon installations built by France in the 1930s to deter invasion by Germany and force them to move around the fortifications. The Magin… read more...

Are Tariffs A Black Swan?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 07:10:00:000

The days of sleepy summer headlines seem like a thing of the past lately. Everyone's talking tariffs, retaliation tariffs, and trade war. What sort of impact is the threat of a trade war due to these tariffs having on markets? Not to be too cute… but that all depends on the market. There's m... read more...

Are Tariffs A Black Swan?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 07:10:00:000

The days of sleepy summer headlines seem like a thing of the past lately. Everyone's talking tariffs, retaliation tariffs, and trade war. What sort of impact is the threat of a trade war due to these tariffs having on markets? Not to be too cute… but that all depends on the market. There's m... read more...

3 Investment Themes To Focus On Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 05:31:12:000

Richard explains the three updated investment themes we see shaping the second half, given the uneasy equilibrium between rising macro uncertainty and strong earnings. Financial markets are caught in an uneasy equilibrium as the second half of 2018 gets underway. The U.S. is leading the gl… read more...

3 Investment Themes To Focus On Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 05:31:12:000

Richard explains the three updated investment themes we see shaping the second half, given the uneasy equilibrium between rising macro uncertainty and strong earnings. Financial markets are caught in an uneasy equilibrium as the second half of 2018 gets underway. The U.S. is leading the gl… read more...

July Business Conditions Monthly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 02:54:52:000

By Robert Hughes Indicators at a Glance Capital Market Performance Consumer Finance Rates Leading Indicators (19502018) Roughly Coincident Indicators (19502018) Lagging Indicators (19502018) AIER's Leading and Coincident Indicators Fell in Ju… read more...

July Business Conditions Monthly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 02:54:52:000

By Robert Hughes Indicators at a Glance Capital Market Performance Consumer Finance Rates Leading Indicators (19502018) Roughly Coincident Indicators (19502018) Lagging Indicators (19502018) AIER's Leading and Coincident Indicators Fell in Ju… read more...

Jobless Claims Back Near Historic Lows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 00:27:01:000

After two weeks of increases, jobless claims saw their largest one-week decline since April this week, falling from 232K down to 214K. At 214K, initial claims are just 5K above their cycle low of 209K back on 4/20, but more importantly, claims have now been below 300K for a record 175 straight… read more...

Jobless Claims Back Near Historic Lows

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 00:27:01:000

After two weeks of increases, jobless claims saw their largest one-week decline since April this week, falling from 232K down to 214K. At 214K, initial claims are just 5K above their cycle low of 209K back on 4/20, but more importantly, claims have now been below 300K for a record 175 straight… read more...

Good News: U.S. Government Posts A $75 Billion Deficit For June 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-12 23:19:31:000

The US budget deficit narrowed to USD 75.0 billion in June 2018 from USD 90.2 billion in the same month of the previous year, and below market expectations of USD 98.2 billion. Why Is This Good News? To understand this better, one has to look at the balance of sectoral flows within the U… read more...

Good News: U.S. Government Posts A $75 Billion Deficit For June 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-12 23:19:31:000

The US budget deficit narrowed to USD 75.0 billion in June 2018 from USD 90.2 billion in the same month of the previous year, and below market expectations of USD 98.2 billion. Why Is This Good News? To understand this better, one has to look at the balance of sectoral flows within the U… read more...

Can Companies Keep Up Strong Beat Rates In Q2 Earnings Season?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-12 05:40:54:000

One thing we'll be watching closely this earnings season is whether companies can keep up the extraordinarily high beat rates seen over the past two quarters. Over the past two earnings seasons, even though analysts had to up their estimates quite a bit due to the Trump corporate tax cuts, c… read more...

Weekly Edge: Trade Battle Heats Up Between U.S. And China

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-12 05:26:01:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel The Trump administration recently announced plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, including fish, furniture and luggage, The Wall Street Journal reported . China responded immediately, stating that t… read more...

Is Goldilocks Awake? Time To Consider Exposure To Alternatives

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-12 05:17:21:000

Note: This is the third in a three-part series: Running with the bulls without getting trampled, focusing on how to potentially get returns in today's market while protecting against the downside. Part 1 can be viewed here , and part 2 can be viewed here . 2017 was a Goldilocks year. M… read more...

Growth, Not Tariffs, Will Fix Our Trade Deficits

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 08:32:10:000

By Jorge Gonzlez-Gallarza President Trump yesterday pledged 10 percent tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports. But economic growth is already eating away at the very trade deficit he's seeking to axe with these tariffs. Trade data for May, when adjusted for seasonal… read more...

Job Openings And Labor Turnover: Clues To The Business Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 08:24:48:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through May, is now available. From the press release: Errors in JOLTS federal government estimates BLS identified errors in the JOLTS federal government hires, total separations, and lay… read more...

The Next 7 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 07:47:59:000

What returns are you expecting from stocks and bonds over the next 7 years? This is a question that GMO (one of the largest and most respected asset managers) attempts to answer on a quarterly basis. Their most recent forecast was downright depressing: -2.2% per year from large-cap U.S. stoc… read more...

Rising Wages = Shrinking Corporate Profit Margins... And Falling Stock Prices?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 06:24:39:000

Tuesday's Wall Street Journal contains a couple of charts that illustrate a relationship that's not getting much media attention these days: the fact that tightening labor markets are forcing companies to raise wages, and in the process, squeezing their own profit margins. Historically, … read more...

Small Businesses Still Giddy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 03:00:15:000

Optimism on the part of small businesses declined slightly this month, but current levels of confidence remain right near record highs. In this month's survey, the index of Small Business Optimism dropped from 107.8 down to 107.2. Not only was that ahead of consensus expectations, but it was a… read more...

Technically Speaking: FOMO Overrides FOLM

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-10 20:08:08:000

In this past weekend's missive , I stated: "The good news is the break above the 61.8% retracement level, as we noted last week, keeps the markets intact (Pathway #1) for now. And, as suggested above, a retest of recent June highs seems very likely. However, Monday will be key to see if we… read more...

Buckle Up - Stocks Are Going Higher From Here

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-10 18:35:19:000

Source: USAToday.com Buckle Up Stocks Are Going Higher From Here Stocks have been on a wild rollercoaster ride throughout most of this year. But despite the 12% drop earlier in the year the S&P 500/SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) has regained most of its lost ground, and is now… read more...

Cycle Stage Determination

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-10 08:35:33:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Saad Filali as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more Business cyc… read more...

S&P 500: What Trade War?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-09 05:23:22:000

Although the trading week was shortened by the Fourth of July holiday, the S&P 500 appeared to confirm something that we've been noticing for several weeks: U.S. stock market investors aren't very concerned about the developing trade war between the U.S. and China. The latest evidence … read more...

It's A High Tech, 'Small' World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-08 10:44:04:000

On Friday, I wrote something for this platform called " Island Life ", which was basically just a sweeping review of how U.S. fiscal policy and the protectionist push from the Trump administration have combined to create an increasingly stark juxtaposition between U.S. stocks ( SPY ) and other… read more...

Expected S&P 500 Q2 2018 Sector Revenue Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-08 08:38:15:000

Here is what the Street is expecting - by sector - for Q2 '18 revenue growth: Energy: +19.9%, vs. +17.8% as of April 15, 2018 Basic Mat: +13.2%, vs. +11.3% as of April 15, 2018 Technology: +12.4%, vs. +10.9% as of April 15, 2018 Real Estate: +10.4%, vs. +6.5% as of April 15, 2018 C… read more...

Just How Overvalued Are U.S. Equities?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-08 08:19:41:000

By almost any metric imaginable, U.S. equities are "overvalued." But by how much is a topic of constant debate, as it is dependent on a) the valuation metric used (ex: P/E, P/B, P/FCF, etc.), b) the length of historical data over which you are comparing to (ex: average P/E over last 10 y… read more...

Robbing Future Economic Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-08 06:12:05:000

Remember Wimpy in Popeye saying, " I'd gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today ." This is the way consumer debt works - it allows one to purchase today borrowing money with the promise to pay back tomorrow. I am not talking about home mortgages here as shelter is necessary whether one r… read more...

The Trade Of Trade Wars

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-07 06:49:41:000

The opening shots of the so-called trade war have actually been very kind. It's the sort of stuff Keynesian economists live for. Activity has been accelerated across a broad front. US imports moved first and now perhaps US exports are in on it, according to the latest Census Bureau estimates. … read more...

July State Of The Market 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-06 06:28:01:000

The first half of 2018 has been taxing for investors. What are we facing for the second half? Neal Frankle of Wealth Pilgrim breaks it down and points out the important road signs to watch over the next several Read more … read more...

Jobless Claims Slightly Higher Than Expected

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-06 01:14:43:000

Jobless claims for the latest week came in at 231K, which was slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 225K. Even at that level, though, claims remain at ridiculously low levels relative to history. This week's reading not only represents a record 174 straight weeks where claims have … read more...

Visualizing The Outgoing Flows Of Business Revenue

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-05 05:14:57:000

How much of the total revenue of a business makes it into its employees' pockets? How much goes to other businesses? How much goes to the federal government? And how much does the business itself keep? The following Sankey diagram visualizes the answers those questions in percentage terms fo… read more...

Dogs Of The Dow Living Up To Their Name This Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-05 03:58:04:000

So far in 2018, the Dogs of the Dow investment strategy is a losing one relative to the return on both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. Through the close of business on July 3, the average return of the 2018 Dogs of the Dow equals -3.8% on a price-only basis and -2.0… read more...

The Trade Policy Annotated Yield Curve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-04 08:12:06:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on July 3, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . Down, down, down. 10yr-3mo at 0.86% at 2 pm today. See Jim's post for more on the spread. Figure 1: 10 year-3 month Treasury spread (blue), and 10 year-2 year Treasury spread (green). Sou… read more...

Market Remains Overvalued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-04 03:08:46:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis: The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio ( more ) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10f-year earnings as the divisor ( more ) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the marke… read more...

Manufacturing Sentiment Improves, But Trade Concerns Intensify

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-03 23:19:32:000

By Mickey D. Levy The ISM U.S. manufacturing index increased 1.5 points to 60.2 in June, matching the September 2017 index for the second-highest level in this expansion. This indicates that manufacturing activity is entering the second half of the year with robust momentum, because levels… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - July 3, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-03 08:30:01:000

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked down in June to an annualized 4.8%, a fractional decline from the previous month's outlook . The projected return over the "risk-free" rate is a long-run estimate for the index, which is an unmanaged market value-weighted port… read more...

May 2018 Median Household Income

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-03 07:50:27:000

May 2018 marks the first test of our updated model for estimating median household income, where our alternate method indicates that the median income for U.S. households in May 2018 is $61,497. That figure compares very favorably with the $61,858 estimate of median household income that S… read more...

Q1 GDP Misses Estimates; Recession Could Blow Up Budget Deficit

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-03 02:49:42:000

Originally published on MoneyShow.com By Don Kaufman We are about to finish Q2, but the final revision for Q1 GDP was released Friday. The headline number missed estimates, as it came in at 2%, which was below the consensus for 2.2%, writes Don Kaufman . This means the final re… read more...

U.S.: Economy Brushing Off Trade Fears... For Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-03 01:50:43:000

By James Knightley, Chief International Economist The ISM manufacturing survey remains close to record highs. Negative rhetoric on trade is yet to bite, but concern is spreading. Survey consistent with GDP of 7% The June US ISM manufacturing index has beaten expectations, hit… read more...

Value Can Lead - Weekly Blog # 531

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-02 04:07:51:000

A Possible Turning Point July of 2016 to June of 2018 may have been a turning point. Interest rates started rising to meet commercial demand for loans, even before the political conventions. Three weeks ago, we began seeing that tech-led growth funds were no longer the weekly mutual fund lea… read more...

Contingency Plans For Sideways Changes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-02 01:31:42:000

Contingency plans can focus on going forward: expanding sales and production. Or they can focus on the downside: cutting expenses in a slowdown. This article will focus on the sideways contingency plan: changing products, production techniques, sales channels - a change that is not about grow… read more...

Weekly Commentary: A Decisive Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-30 10:39:25:000

June 29 - Financial Times (Peter Wells): "The buck is back. Tighter domestic monetary policy and global trade turmoil have set the US dollar for its best quarterly performance since December 2016. The DXY index, which tracks the US currency against a weighted basket of global peers, was up 5.2… read more...

Weekly Commentary: A Decisive Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-30 10:39:25:000

June 29 - Financial Times (Peter Wells): "The buck is back. Tighter domestic monetary policy and global trade turmoil have set the US dollar for its best quarterly performance since December 2016. The DXY index, which tracks the US currency against a weighted basket of global peers, was up 5.2… read more...

The Trump Economy Half A Year After The Tax Cuts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-30 08:02:05:000

If you wake up Stephen Moore in the middle of the night, probably the first thing he will say is tax cuts! In the idea of Moore, and that of his friend and economic adviser Larry Kudlow (whose economic predictions tend to be rather funny ), tax cuts are the magic elixir that will boost growth… read more...

The Trump Economy Half A Year After The Tax Cuts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-30 08:02:05:000

If you wake up Stephen Moore in the middle of the night, probably the first thing he will say is tax cuts! In the idea of Moore, and that of his friend and economic adviser Larry Kudlow (whose economic predictions tend to be rather funny ), tax cuts are the magic elixir that will boost growth… read more...

Market Overview Q2 2018: What Does It Mean To Invest?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-30 07:19:01:000

The late stages of any economic cycle provide fertile ground for divergent opinions. Some recent positive numbers, for example, can be viewed as reflective of underlying strength, but they can also be viewed as an indication of overheating and ultimately higher inflation. What is unique to t… read more...

Market Overview Q2 2018: What Does It Mean To Invest?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-30 07:19:01:000

The late stages of any economic cycle provide fertile ground for divergent opinions. Some recent positive numbers, for example, can be viewed as reflective of underlying strength, but they can also be viewed as an indication of overheating and ultimately higher inflation. What is unique to t… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: A Quick Look At The S&P 500 Forward Earnings Curve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-30 02:02:15:000

Next week, as we roll into the third quarter of 2018, the "forward 4-quarter estimate" should jump to (approximately) $168 per share, which is the sum of Thomson Reuters IBES's quarterly estimates for Q3 '18 through Q2 '19. Looking at the next two "forward 4-quarter estimates," here is what … read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: A Quick Look At The S&P 500 Forward Earnings Curve

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-30 02:02:15:000

Next week, as we roll into the third quarter of 2018, the "forward 4-quarter estimate" should jump to (approximately) $168 per share, which is the sum of Thomson Reuters IBES's quarterly estimates for Q3 '18 through Q2 '19. Looking at the next two "forward 4-quarter estimates," here is what … read more...

Reports Raise The Alarm For Stocks - What Worries Me Relative To Trade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-29 14:06:12:000

Measures of both consumer and investor confidence were reported this week for the month of June and the news was a bit disheartening. Each indicator deteriorated, and the reason is likely relative to the escalation of trade war developments between the U.S. and its trading partners, especi… read more...

Contracting S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-29 05:05:11:000

While the S&P 500 is up about 1% year-to-date, earnings strength has caused its trailing 12-month P/E ratio to actually contract 1.78 points from 22.37 at the start of the year down to 20.59 as of this writing. Below we show how trailing 12-month valuations have changed both year-to-date… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - June 28 , 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 12:16:55:000

The BCI at 246.3 is above last week's downward revised level, and for the current Business Cycle, at a new high indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 15.7 remains at last week's downward revised level. Both BCIp and BCIg do not signaling a recession… read more...

2 Biggest Obstacles For Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-27 10:33:18:000

Trade-related concerns continue to create headwinds for stocks with heavy exposure to foreign economies. Tech sector stocks, meanwhile, continue to exhibit impressive relative strength compared to the S&P 500. While the outlook for tech and retailers remains bullish, some serious obstacles… read more...

Consumer Confidence Down In June

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-27 06:52:40:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released on Tuesday morning based on data collected through June 15. The headline number of 126.4 was a decrease from the final reading of 128.8 for May, an upward revision from 128.0. The latest number was below t… read more...

Chicago Fed: Slower Growth In May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-27 03:44:51:000

By Jill Mislinski "Index points to slower economic growth in May." This is the headline for Monday morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed Nat… read more...

Consumer Confidence Ticked Down In June But Remains At A Very High Level

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-27 03:37:44:000

By Robert Hughes The Consumer Confidence Survey from The Conference Board shows consumer attitudes pulled back slightly in June relative to May, but remain at historically favorable levels overall. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 126.4 in the latest reading, down from 128.8 in May. … read more...

Revisiting The Past For Future Insights

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-26 21:16:54:000

I thought in light of the past few days' "market" reaction to what's playing out globally, as far as trade and more, that I would revisit a prior example and show the whats and hows it may be signaling, both for some pragmatic insight as well as what it may be signaling in a broader context. S… read more...

Market Changes Due - Weekly Blog # 530

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-26 04:06:37:000

Physics Envy The biggest mistake too many investors make is to count on the current market characteristics continuing into the indefinite future. (The only possible bigger mistake is the lack of a skeptical intellectual filter, which I will likely discuss in future posts.) One of the reaso… read more...

Trade Off: Thoughts On Monday's Global Turmoil

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 21:42:21:000

You'll forgive me if I quote myself, right? This is from " America First ", posted here on Sunday, around lunchtime: It's the U.S. versus the rest of the world at this juncture when it comes to markets and what I would encourage investors to keep in mind is the fact that markets are more… read more...

Markets Have No Color, Stocks Don't Rhyme

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 17:39:24:000

This article is the latest in the Market Sounds Of Summer series on Seeking Alpha. Now you are here today, But easily you might just slip away. 'Cause we live in a time, When paintings have no color, words don't rhyme. --Sentimental Lady, Fleetwood Ma… read more...

'America First'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-24 12:48:46:000

In " Run Over By A Benz ", I suggested the Trump administration is likely to keep pushing the envelope on trade up to and until the risk-off sentiment that's showing up in Chinese equities ( FXI ) and in emerging market assets finally spills over materially into U.S. stocks. Specifically, I sa… read more...

Keep An Eye On Q1 2019 S&P 500 Earnings Revisions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-24 08:23:00:000

FC-eps estimate revisions The above spreadsheet is a far bigger data field than needs to be posted, but if you wish to take a look at S&P 500 EPS estimate revisions since the 2009 market low, here is the spreadsheet that does it. Since tax reform was signed, "positive revisions" to S… read more...

Weekly Commentary: Performance Chase

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-23 13:04:39:000

The Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, small cap Russell 2000, Value Line Arithmetic and the NYSE Arca Biotechnology were among U.S. indices trading to all-time highs during Wednesday's session. In the real world, there is escalating risk of a destabilizing global trade war. The Shanghai Composite … read more...

Will Disney's Epic Buyout Of Fox Mark The End Of The Everything Bubble?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-23 10:02:46:000

As bubbles expand and hot money starts burning holes in corporate pockets, merger and acquisition deal terms begin to leave reality behind. Often one deal of such breathtaking size, scope and hubris is struck that - in retrospect - it heralds the end of the era. The junk bond bubble of the 1… read more...

Small Caps, Technology And Pharma To Drive A Renewed Market Rally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-23 09:30:04:000

We've been warning our followers not to get frightened by the price rotation in the US majors for months. Our predictive analysis has been showing us the upside in this market is far from over, and our most recent analysis of the global markets is showing us that emerging markets and many glob… read more...

Sentiment At Some Prior Equity Market Peaks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-22 02:48:08:000

Not long ago, I was ask to compare current sentiment data provided by the American Association of Individual Investors with the market sentiment levels reached near the peak of the technology bubble. Going a little further, below is a chart showing the individual investor bull/bear spread ne… read more...

How Long Can Stocks Beat Bonds By A Wide Margin?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-22 02:22:03:000

Stocks are expected to outperform bonds in the long run, but how much is too much over a medium-term horizon? The question is topical in the wake of a strong bull market for US equities over the past decade. Although stocks have had a rough ride so far in 2018, recent wobbles haven't dented … read more...

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Continued Increases In May At Slower Pace

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-22 01:43:25:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May increased to 109.5 from a revised 109.3 in April. The Coincident Economic Index ((CEI)) came in at 103.7, up from the previous month. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased again in May. Positi… read more...

Q1 Household Net Worth: The 'Real' Story

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-21 06:55:17:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: With this month's release of the Federal Reserve's Z.1. Financial Accounts of the United States for Q1 2018, we have updated this commentary to incorporate the latest data. Let's take a long-term view of household net worth from the latest Z.1 release. A q… read more...

The Last Boiling Frog Gave Birth To The Modern Unemployment Rate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-21 06:30:59:000

The origins of the modern unemployment rate were, of course, political in nature. Before, the question was simple: you were either employed or you weren't. There weren't so many various stages of condition, a gradation that today is as enthusiastically applied to the very definition of the lab… read more...

Weekly Edge: U.S. Economy Braces For Impact Of Trade Conflicts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-21 02:41:11:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel The global economy is looking bright. Economic growth is estimated to climb to 3.9% this year, and business investment is rising. U.S. corporations are enjoying healthier balance sheets as a result of tax cuts, and free cash flow increases hav… read more...

How To Invest For A U.S.-China Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-20 14:25:08:000

On June 15th, U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese exports. The Chinese government immediately followed with a proportional $34 billion tariff on U.S. exports. Subsequently, Trump threatened to levy as much as $200 billion more in tariffs in case of Chinese r… read more...

Trade Shocks And Demand Shocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-20 05:55:46:000

Paul Krugman has an excellent piece on the potential effects of an all-out trade war. Like Krugman, I think it unlikely that we actually go that far. My view is that before that happened, Trump would become frightened by a sharp fall in stocks and negotiate some sort of face-saving deal wher… read more...

Diversification And The Fear Of Missing Out

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-20 04:32:30:000

Diversification is often said to be the only "free lunch" in investing, delivering superior risk-adjusted returns over the long run. So why doesn't everyone do it? Let's take a look. Responsible financial advisors across the country are apologizing to their clients for the seventh year in a … read more...

U.S. ETF Quarterly Summary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-20 03:56:43:000

US stocks were buffeted by cross-currents in the first half of 2018. There were Trump Tweetstorms, geopolitics in China and Korea, and G-7 trading partner fights with Canada, our largest and most durable trading partner. Add to that a blistering attack on the press (what happened to the First … read more...

The U.S. Keeps In Truckin'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-20 02:32:38:000

Truck tonnage continues to post significant gains, according to the American Trucking Association's latest release . Tonnage is up 7.8% year over year, and it is up at an annualized rate of 7.8% year to date. Chart #1 Chart #1 is an updated version of the one in my post last month, " Tr… read more...

Technically Speaking: The Drums Of 'Trade' War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-19 09:21:13:000

In last week's Technical Update, I discussed the risks to our short-term bullish view. To wit : "Next week, the Trump Administration will announce $50 billion in "tariffs" on Chinese products. The ongoing trade war remains a risk to the markets in the short-term. With global economic grow… read more...

Will A Trade War Derail The Rebound In U.S. Economic Growth?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-19 08:16:44:000

Estimates for US economic growth in the second quarter continue to project a strong rebound following Q1's subdued gain. But the upbeat outlook may falter in the second half of the year if the White House's tough talk on trade policy is implemented and China responds in kind. Tensions over t… read more...

Industrial Production Is Not Bad At All

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-18 12:45:07:000

The most recent industrial production numbers came in weaker than expected. May saw a 0.1% decline compared to April of this year and a 0.7% manufacturing decline during the same period. The manufacturing decline is the worst since January of 2014. Even if you search for industrial production … read more...

Learning From The Demise Of G-7 Through The Battle Of Cowpens - Weekly Blog # 528

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-18 06:02:21:000

I learn and apply these lessons to our investment tasks, communicating them through these blog posts. Global policy judgments are not a focus of these blogs. One can learn from watching conflict resolutions in military, political, and sports worlds that are useful in thinking about future inve… read more...

Futures drop amid trade war fears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-18 00:21:14:000

"The Chinese view this as an exercise in self-flagellation, meaning that the country that wins a trade war is the country that can endure most pain, Andrew Polk of research firm Trivium China says. China thinks it can outlast the U.S. They dont have to worry about an … read more...

Buying Grandpa's Stocks Is The Better Thing To Do

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-17 15:23:59:000

Grandpas stocks have been out of favor the last couple of years . But that does not mean that they should be simply cast aside for their relative underperformance. Stocks across the size and style spectrum are constantly moving in and out of favor over time. For those that own &#x201C… read more...

Global QE, Dollar Liquidity And Why You Should Mark Your Calendar For March 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-17 12:33:30:000

On Saturday, in " The Fed, The ECB And 'The Most Important Week Of The Year' ", I brought you my take on the Fed meeting and, more importantly in many respects, the ECB decision. The latter won plaudits from pretty much everyone for the extent to which Mario Draghi's new forward guidance on … read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - Sentiment, Shorts, And Stress

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-17 11:34:48:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically, I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that… read more...

Is S&P 500 Earnings Growth Topping Out?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-17 08:17:29:000

Here is 6-year detail (both historical and prospective) of S&P 500 earnings growth: 2020: +9% (est) 2019: +10% (est) 2018: +22% (est) 2017: +12% 2016: +1% 2015: -1% Source: Thomson Reuters IBES The Excel table just above shows the chron… read more...

The Fed Raised In June 2018 And This It What It Means For Investment Markets And The Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-16 06:23:24:000

The Fed raised rates to 2% at its last meeting. Rate increases are inflationary, and we can now expect inflation to tick upwards. Oil price rises are also adding to cost-push inflationary pressures. Each rise in the Fed rate adds to the private debt servicing burden that shrinks the real e… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 4K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-14 09:18:02:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending June 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,250,… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 4K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-14 09:18:02:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending June 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,250,… read more...

Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-14 08:40:16:000

The bubbles in assets are supported by the invisible bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Well, folks, here we go again: we have a double-bubble economy in housing and stocks, and a third difficult-to-chart bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Feast your eyes on Housing Bubble … read more...

Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-14 08:40:16:000

The bubbles in assets are supported by the invisible bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Well, folks, here we go again: we have a double-bubble economy in housing and stocks, and a third difficult-to-chart bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Feast your eyes on Housing Bubble … read more...

May Producer Price Index: Final Demand Up 0.5% MoM

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-14 08:33:03:000

By Jill Mislinski Wednesday's release of the May Producer Price Index ((PPI)) for Final Demand came in at 0.5% month over month seasonally adjusted, up from last month's 0.1%. It is at 3.1% year over year, up from 2.6% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted ((NSA)) basis. Core Final Dema… read more...

May Producer Price Index: Final Demand Up 0.5% MoM

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-14 08:33:03:000

By Jill Mislinski Wednesday's release of the May Producer Price Index ((PPI)) for Final Demand came in at 0.5% month over month seasonally adjusted, up from last month's 0.1%. It is at 3.1% year over year, up from 2.6% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted ((NSA)) basis. Core Final Dema… read more...

Cyclical To Non-Cyclical Stock Weighting Ratio At 40-Year High

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-13 04:12:55:000

Below is an updated look at S&P 500 sector weightings. As shown, Technology now makes up more than a quarter of the pie, while Financials, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary are the next largest sectors (in that order). Notably, the Consumer Discretionary sector's weighting of 13.03… read more...

Small Business Optimism: 2nd Highest Level In 45-Year History

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-13 01:59:08:000

On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported the May Small Business Optimism Index increased to the second-highest level in the survey's 45-year history. The May reading increased 2.6 points versus the April reading, and exceeded the high end of the consensus r… read more...

How Dreadful Could A U.S. Trade War Be?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 10:22:33:000

Image source: Agweb Investment Thesis The US and China announced tariffs on each others goods. Tariffs announced by China appear to make the business environment more challenging for firms engaged in agricultural, motor vehicles, aircraft and chemicals industries. Economist… read more...

Technically Speaking: The Risks To Our Bullish View

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 08:42:22:000

As we detailed in this past weekend's newsletter : "… [the expected] breakout did occur and pushed prices to the first level of resistance which resides at the late February highs." "there is a significant amount of overhead resistance between 2780 and 2800 which may present... read more...

Tariffs Won't Make America Great Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 05:58:31:000

Donald Trump made a big stink at the G-7 this past weekend because he refuses to understand the simple reality of the US trade situation and insists on promoting a populist trade position that makes little sense. I'm gonna keep this real simple, so bear with me for a second. The USA runs a t… read more...

S&P 500 Sector Weightings Report - June 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 05:28:56:000

S&P 500 sector weightings are important to monitor. Over the years, when weightings have gotten extremely lopsided for one or two sectors, it hasn't ended well. Below is a table showing S&P 500 sector weightings from the mid-1990s through 2016. In the early 1990s, before the dotcom bub… read more...

Alternative Futures For The S&P 500 In Week 1 Of June 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-11 07:09:04:000

The S&P 500 closed up at 2,779.03 to close the week ending on Friday, 8 June 2018. That level is less than 100 points below the all-time high of 2,872.87 that it set back on Friday, 26 January 2018, and also nearly 200 points above the low value of 2,581.00 that it bottomed out at on Mon… read more...

When A Walk To The Park Isn't A Walk In The Park

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-10 12:41:45:000

It's Sunday morning as I write this and there for about 15 minutes, I had designs on cramming my woefully out of date MacBook Air into my trusty Alleretour Messenger 34 (which has been subjected to an obscene amount of abuse considering its pedigree) and trudging the two- ish miles to a brand… read more...

A Peek At Q2 2018 Expected Earnings And A Closer Look At The Technology Sector

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-10 11:56:56:000

The above was cut-and-pasted from Friday, June 8th's "This Week in Earnings" and the table shows how S&P 500 expected earnings growth has tracked by sector since Jan. 1, 2018. Q2 2018 will obviously benefit from tax reform and the reduction in corporate tax rates, but S&P 500 revenue g… read more...

Is There A 'Soft Data' Problem For Business Cycle Analysis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-10 06:57:36:000

Two analysts recently warned that so-called soft economic data has become less reliable for profiling the macro trend. "We believe the soft data, and subsequent forecasts, are suffering from a circular reference due to groupthink, herd mentality and political preferences," Jim Bianco (Bianco R… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-08 01:25:50:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending June 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 f… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 1K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-08 01:25:50:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending June 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 f… read more...

Some Things Will Not Change, And That's Why Nothing Changes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-08 01:16:46:000

Auto sales improved only slightly in May 2018, from more dismal results over the prior few months. Unit and retail sales were projected to be +3.5% year over year last month. Almost immediately, these numbers (really just the plus sign) were celebrated as clear evidence that consumers were spe… read more...

Some Things Will Not Change, And That's Why Nothing Changes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-08 01:16:46:000

Auto sales improved only slightly in May 2018, from more dismal results over the prior few months. Unit and retail sales were projected to be +3.5% year over year last month. Almost immediately, these numbers (really just the plus sign) were celebrated as clear evidence that consumers were spe… read more...

Some Lessons In Timing The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 22:42:19:000

The popular opinion on most stock boards that the market can't be timed and one should always be 100% invested leaves a lot to be desired. In mid-January 2018, we had the highest reading of bullish sentiment in over twelve years on the S&P 500 ( SPY ), and had bulls outnumbering bears by f… read more...

Some Lessons In Timing The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 22:42:19:000

The popular opinion on most stock boards that the market can't be timed and one should always be 100% invested leaves a lot to be desired. In mid-January 2018, we had the highest reading of bullish sentiment in over twelve years on the S&P 500 ( SPY ), and had bulls outnumbering bears by f… read more...

All Bets Are On And Off In Markets Next Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 18:30:21:000

Markets are a reflection of political and economic events around the world. At times, an event impacts asset prices on a macroeconomic basis. Other events and developments have more of a microeconomic influence on specific markets. The coming week is chock full of events that will contribute… read more...

The Dow: Catching Up On Lost Ground

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 04:01:30:000

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) rallied hard today (Wednesday, 6th of June). The ETF is now up well over 12 points since its May lows, which occurred at the start of the month. Since the Dow has fewer companies in its index than the likes of the S&P 500 (SPY), you get the feel… read more...

Markit Services PMI: Growth Accelerates In May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 01:41:12:000

By Jill Mislinski The May US Services Purchasing Managers' Index survey conducted by Markit came in at 56.8 percent, up 2.2 from the final April estimate of 54.6. The Investing.com consensus was for 55.7 percent. Markit's Services PMI is a diffusion index: a reading above 50 indicates expa… read more...

The 'No-News' Rally Runs Out Of Steam

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 00:54:53:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economic Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Markets can go up for a day with nothing driving them, but it seems they need more to sustain a rally - there's still a dearth of drivers Nothing to get your teeth into After Monday's inexplicable rally, aside from a … read more...

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-06 02:10:40:000

In the last update, I wondered if growth expectations - and growth - were breaking out to the upside. 10-year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous, and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a ne… read more...

Technically Speaking: Bulls Charge Into 'Trade War'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-05 08:32:35:000

On Monday, stocks opened higher as the bulls pushed the market above overhead resistance. In this past weekend's missive , I updated our ongoing "pathway" analysis which continues to drive our overall portfolio positioning currently. To wit: "As shown by the reddish triangle, the ongo… read more...

The Return Of The 'Noisy Status Quo'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-04 19:48:03:000

No strong reason to buy, but no strong reason to sell, either. There has almost been too much uncertainty, and investors have just thrown up their hands and said, OK, well worry about this stuff when there is something specific to worry about. That rather amusing quote comes from R… read more...

A Dose Of Reality In Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-04 13:37:51:000

Since early 2016, when the equities market corrected after selling in the Chinese stock market, it seemed like nothing could stop the upward trajectory of equities prices. The surprise result of the Brexit referendum in June 2016, caused nothing more than a very brief pause in the stock market… read more...

The S&P 500 In Week 5 Of May 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-04 05:23:32:000

Although it was shortened by the Memorial Day holiday, the fifth and final week of May 2018 marked a potential shift in focus for the S&P 500. Going into the week, investors appeared to be largely focusing their forward-looking attention toward the current quarter of 2018-Q2 as they went… read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - More Of Markets In The Macro Middle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 16:13:55:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that … read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - More Of Markets In The Macro Middle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 16:13:55:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that … read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - More Of Markets In The Macro Middle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 16:13:55:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that … read more...

Tracking The S&P 500 'Earnings Yield'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 09:18:26:000

After the recent slippage in the forward estimate the last few weeks, a couple of readers emailed and noted the decline and made some additional comments about the drop in the forward estimate, which, from a historical perspective, was almost immaterial. Readers need to be cautioned that S&a… read more...

Tracking The S&P 500 'Earnings Yield'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 09:18:26:000

After the recent slippage in the forward estimate the last few weeks, a couple of readers emailed and noted the decline and made some additional comments about the drop in the forward estimate, which, from a historical perspective, was almost immaterial. Readers need to be cautioned that S&a… read more...

Tracking The S&P 500 'Earnings Yield'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 09:18:26:000

After the recent slippage in the forward estimate the last few weeks, a couple of readers emailed and noted the decline and made some additional comments about the drop in the forward estimate, which, from a historical perspective, was almost immaterial. Readers need to be cautioned that S&a… read more...

PM Perspectives: Value May Be Poised To Outperform Growth As Rates Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 06:40:09:000

By Justin Tugman, CFA Justin Tugman, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Perkins Small Cap Value, Mid Cap Value and SMID Cap Value strategies, says nine years of significant outperformance for growth stocks may be coming to an end as rising interest rates and increasing inflation expectations ti… read more...

PM Perspectives: Value May Be Poised To Outperform Growth As Rates Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 06:40:09:000

By Justin Tugman, CFA Justin Tugman, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Perkins Small Cap Value, Mid Cap Value and SMID Cap Value strategies, says nine years of significant outperformance for growth stocks may be coming to an end as rising interest rates and increasing inflation expectations ti… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: Is It Time To Worry About A Trade War?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 06:19:32:000

The economic calendar is light. Most of the financial news flow relates to non-core stories. Of the various geopolitical themes, there is one that is most significant for investors. Expect pundits to be asking: Is it time for investors to worry about a trade war? Last W… read more...

Weighing The Week Ahead: Is It Time To Worry About A Trade War?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 06:19:32:000

The economic calendar is light. Most of the financial news flow relates to non-core stories. Of the various geopolitical themes, there is one that is most significant for investors. Expect pundits to be asking: Is it time for investors to worry about a trade war? Last W… read more...

5 Charts On Quantitative Tightening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 15:22:47:000

As the Fed is steadily progressing through its balance sheet normalization plan, it's worth checking in on a few charts that highlight the path to normalcy, and some of the potential stumbling blocks along the way. The beginning of large scale asset purchases (or QE - Quantitative Easing) in t… read more...

5 Charts On Quantitative Tightening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 15:22:47:000

As the Fed is steadily progressing through its balance sheet normalization plan, it's worth checking in on a few charts that highlight the path to normalcy, and some of the potential stumbling blocks along the way. The beginning of large scale asset purchases (or QE - Quantitative Easing) in t… read more...

5 Charts On Quantitative Tightening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 15:22:47:000

As the Fed is steadily progressing through its balance sheet normalization plan, it's worth checking in on a few charts that highlight the path to normalcy, and some of the potential stumbling blocks along the way. The beginning of large scale asset purchases (or QE - Quantitative Easing) in t… read more...

5 Charts On Quantitative Tightening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 15:22:47:000

As the Fed is steadily progressing through its balance sheet normalization plan, it's worth checking in on a few charts that highlight the path to normalcy, and some of the potential stumbling blocks along the way. The beginning of large scale asset purchases (or QE - Quantitative Easing) in t… read more...

Weekly Wrap: Only A Little Left In This Expansion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 14:53:50:000

With the Memorial Day holiday, there were just four trading days this week and what a ride they were. Tuesday began with an Italian political crisis as the coalition between Italy's far-left Five Star Movement and far-right League fell apart. The yield on the Italian 2-year bond rose all the w… read more...

Weekly Wrap: Only A Little Left In This Expansion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 14:53:50:000

With the Memorial Day holiday, there were just four trading days this week and what a ride they were. Tuesday began with an Italian political crisis as the coalition between Italy's far-left Five Star Movement and far-right League fell apart. The yield on the Italian 2-year bond rose all the w… read more...

Weekly Wrap: Only A Little Left In This Expansion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 14:53:50:000

With the Memorial Day holiday, there were just four trading days this week and what a ride they were. Tuesday began with an Italian political crisis as the coalition between Italy's far-left Five Star Movement and far-right League fell apart. The yield on the Italian 2-year bond rose all the w… read more...

S.T.I.N.K. - Deja Vu All Over Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 14:27:36:000

Yogi Berra is a Baseball Hall of Fame catcher and manager who played 18 out of 19 seasons with the New York Yankees. Besides his incredible baseball skills, Berra was also known for his humorous and witty quotes, which were called " Yogi-isms ." Reportedly, one of Berra's most famous Yogi-isms… read more...

S.T.I.N.K. - Deja Vu All Over Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 14:27:36:000

Yogi Berra is a Baseball Hall of Fame catcher and manager who played 18 out of 19 seasons with the New York Yankees. Besides his incredible baseball skills, Berra was also known for his humorous and witty quotes, which were called " Yogi-isms ." Reportedly, one of Berra's most famous Yogi-isms… read more...

S.T.I.N.K. - Deja Vu All Over Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-02 14:27:36:000

Yogi Berra is a Baseball Hall of Fame catcher and manager who played 18 out of 19 seasons with the New York Yankees. Besides his incredible baseball skills, Berra was also known for his humorous and witty quotes, which were called " Yogi-isms ." Reportedly, one of Berra's most famous Yogi-isms… read more...

One Year Later, This Still Isn't The Start Of A Bear Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 13:13:20:000

In May of 2017, we presented evidence in support of our view that the stock market, at the time, was not about to enter a bear market. Six months later, we updated this evidence and concluded that the market was overdue for a healthy correction, but that a recession and resulting bear market w… read more...

One Year Later, This Still Isn't The Start Of A Bear Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 13:13:20:000

In May of 2017, we presented evidence in support of our view that the stock market, at the time, was not about to enter a bear market. Six months later, we updated this evidence and concluded that the market was overdue for a healthy correction, but that a recession and resulting bear market w… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 01:16:01:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of the April data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague… read more...

The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 01:16:01:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of the April data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague… read more...

Liquidity Crisis Looming

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 00:59:10:000

By FS Staff This time on the Financial Sense Big Picture , Jim Puplava discusses why he thinks disappearing liquidity could be the next big unseen factor to kick off a crisis. There are three large forces precipitating this coming crisis, he noted: high-frequency trading, the ETF and pass… read more...

Liquidity Crisis Looming

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 00:59:10:000

By FS Staff This time on the Financial Sense Big Picture , Jim Puplava discusses why he thinks disappearing liquidity could be the next big unseen factor to kick off a crisis. There are three large forces precipitating this coming crisis, he noted: high-frequency trading, the ETF and pass… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 13K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 00:44:40:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,250… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 13K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 00:44:40:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,250… read more...

Jobless Claims Back On The Decline

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 00:37:53:000

After four weeks in a row of flat or rising readings, initial jobless claims declined this week, falling from 234K down to 221K. That was also below consensus expectations for a reading of 228K. This week's reading represents the record 169th straight week that claims have been at or below 300… read more...

Modest Drop In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 00:09:44:000

With the markets becoming a little more volatile over the last few days, individual investors have grown slightly more cautious. According to this week's sentiment survey from AAII , bullish sentiment dropped from 38.6% down to 35.0%, breaking a three-week streak of increases in the process… read more...

What's Behind The Rapid Plunge In The 'Smart Money Index'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-31 06:52:57:000

Much has been made of the plunge in the Smart Money Index this year, and for good reason. In the past, major downturns in the index like we are witnessing today have proved to be prelude to major downturns in stock prices. Many have wondered about the underlying dynamics for the decline in t… read more...

Does Your Investment Portfolio Need A 'Shot In The Arm'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-31 06:34:07:000

By Jerry Wagner I made a trip to a travel clinic this morning. It's the first time I've had to do that since I went to Russia more than 10 years ago. But this year, I plan to go to some developing market countries, so a return trip to the clinic was necessary. The Centers for Disease Con… read more...

The Most Important Number Isn't 32x Or 3,000, It's 200: The Importance Of CDS For A Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 15:29:52:000

In April 2013, we wrote : If the last hundred years of market cycles teaches anything, it's that one can't be a great equity investor without also being a solid credit analyst. Credit crunches and financing booms have killed and fueled bull markets. Analysis of the corporate credit… read more...

The Most Important Number Isn't 32x Or 3,000, It's 200: The Importance Of CDS For A Bull Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 15:29:52:000

In April 2013, we wrote : If the last hundred years of market cycles teaches anything, it's that one can't be a great equity investor without also being a solid credit analyst. Credit crunches and financing booms have killed and fueled bull markets. Analysis of the corporate credit… read more...

First Look At May: ADP Says 178K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 15:28:46:000

By Jill Mislinski The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series … read more...

First Look At May: ADP Says 178K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 15:28:46:000

By Jill Mislinski The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series … read more...

Market Update: Last Days Of May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 13:43:27:000

By OpenMarkets After the holiday weekend, Jack Bouroudjian focuses on the last trading days in May, Italian bonds and the yield Read more … read more...

Market Update: Last Days Of May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 13:43:27:000

By OpenMarkets After the holiday weekend, Jack Bouroudjian focuses on the last trading days in May, Italian bonds and the yield Read more … read more...

Drowning In Debt: Delinquencies Are Surging And It's Only Getting Worse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 09:31:27:000

Lately theres been concerning news about Americans and their ability to service their debts. Two weeks ago , I wrote about the alarming rise in subprime auto loan delinquencies a 22-year high. Whats puzzling is that the last time delinquencies were this high &#x… read more...

Drowning In Debt: Delinquencies Are Surging And It's Only Getting Worse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 09:31:27:000

Lately theres been concerning news about Americans and their ability to service their debts. Two weeks ago , I wrote about the alarming rise in subprime auto loan delinquencies a 22-year high. Whats puzzling is that the last time delinquencies were this high &#x… read more...

U.S. Economy Slowing, Not Crashing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 08:38:33:000

Stifel's Chief Economist is among several who predict an economic slowdown with a potential recession as the decade ends. As investors returned from Memorial-Day detente, the challenge of navigating an effective strategy had not eased - with a continuing unresolved threat of a looming trad… read more...

U.S. Economy Slowing, Not Crashing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 08:38:33:000

Stifel's Chief Economist is among several who predict an economic slowdown with a potential recession as the decade ends. As investors returned from Memorial-Day detente, the challenge of navigating an effective strategy had not eased - with a continuing unresolved threat of a looming trad… read more...

On Recession, 'Advisory' Services And Equity Diversification

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 06:54:26:000

On the weekend, the Financial Post ran with an article headed " Macquarie thinks housing will drag Canada into a recession as bad as the financial crisis in two years-and that's the best case scenario ." In it, Macquarie Capital Markets correctly notes that Canada's grotesquely inflated - no… read more...

On Recession, 'Advisory' Services And Equity Diversification

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 06:54:26:000

On the weekend, the Financial Post ran with an article headed " Macquarie thinks housing will drag Canada into a recession as bad as the financial crisis in two years-and that's the best case scenario ." In it, Macquarie Capital Markets correctly notes that Canada's grotesquely inflated - no… read more...

Top 5 Market Cap Weights - S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 05:20:27:000

Many thanks to David Aurelio of Thomson Reuters with helping out on the above table. This blog updates this table at least twice a year. The top 5 weightings in the above spreadsheet were taken from the SPY's top five weightings as of Friday, May 25 th , 2018, per Morningstar data. (Long all… read more...

Top 5 Market Cap Weights - S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 05:20:27:000

Many thanks to David Aurelio of Thomson Reuters with helping out on the above table. This blog updates this table at least twice a year. The top 5 weightings in the above spreadsheet were taken from the SPY's top five weightings as of Friday, May 25 th , 2018, per Morningstar data. (Long all… read more...

Consumer Confidence Increased In May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 01:14:09:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released on Tuesday morning based on data collected through May 16. The headline number of 128.0 was an increase from the final reading of 125.6 for April, a downward revision from 128.7. Tuesday's number was bel… read more...

Consumer Confidence Increased In May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 01:14:09:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released on Tuesday morning based on data collected through May 16. The headline number of 128.0 was an increase from the final reading of 125.6 for April, a downward revision from 128.7. Tuesday's number was bel… read more...

Consumer Confidence Remains Near Multi-Year Highs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 00:32:23:000

Consumer confidence for the month of May came in right in line with expectations, rising to 128.0 from a downwardly revised reading of 125.6 in April. As shown in the chart, consumers are just about as confident as they have been at any time since 2001. Breaking out sentiment by the Present … read more...

The VIX Is Too Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-29 06:45:00:000

The VIX index is a measure of the implied volatility of equities that trade on the S&P index. The primary determinate of put and call option premiums is something called implied volatility. There are two types of measures for price variance when it comes to asset prices. Historical volatil… read more...

The VIX Is Too Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-29 06:45:00:000

The VIX index is a measure of the implied volatility of equities that trade on the S&P index. The primary determinate of put and call option premiums is something called implied volatility. There are two types of measures for price variance when it comes to asset prices. Historical volatil… read more...

A Slow Week For The S&P 500 In Week 4 Of May 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-29 05:36:28:000

As expected, stock prices gapped up to start the fourth week of May 2018, thanks to a deal between the U.S. and China to not impose new tariffs on each other's goods, but beyond that move, didn't do very much else during the rest of the week. Then again, that might have been expected too f… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth: A Sustainability Story?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-28 06:48:24:000

By Dan Roarty After an eight-year US economic recovery, many investors are asking whether growth will continue. Beyond the immediate challenges, we think the long-term outlook will be shaped by how environmental and social sustainability are addressed. Recent market volatility has raised… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth: A Sustainability Story?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-28 06:48:24:000

By Dan Roarty After an eight-year US economic recovery, many investors are asking whether growth will continue. Beyond the immediate challenges, we think the long-term outlook will be shaped by how environmental and social sustainability are addressed. Recent market volatility has raised… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-27 12:00:38:000

Thomson Reuters IBES data (by the numbers): Fwd 4-qtr est: $163.80 vs. last week's $164.11 P.E ratio: 16.6x PEG ratio: 0.78x S&P 500 earnings yield: 6.02% Year-over-year growth of forward estimate: +21.4% vs. last week's 21.75% Commentary: T… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-27 12:00:38:000

Thomson Reuters IBES data (by the numbers): Fwd 4-qtr est: $163.80 vs. last week's $164.11 P.E ratio: 16.6x PEG ratio: 0.78x S&P 500 earnings yield: 6.02% Year-over-year growth of forward estimate: +21.4% vs. last week's 21.75% Commentary: T… read more...

S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-27 12:00:38:000

Thomson Reuters IBES data (by the numbers): Fwd 4-qtr est: $163.80 vs. last week's $164.11 P.E ratio: 16.6x PEG ratio: 0.78x S&P 500 earnings yield: 6.02% Year-over-year growth of forward estimate: +21.4% vs. last week's 21.75% Commentary: T… read more...

Weekly Wrap: Don't Count Those Geopolitical Wins Too Early

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-26 07:13:48:000

This week the markets lost the vigor from last week as investors learned to not only to not count on those geopolitical wins too early in the game but to expect the negotiation flip-flopping to continue, bringing uncertainty along for the ride. Markets Monday the markets were in a jovial… read more...

Weekly Wrap: Don't Count Those Geopolitical Wins Too Early

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-26 07:13:48:000

This week the markets lost the vigor from last week as investors learned to not only to not count on those geopolitical wins too early in the game but to expect the negotiation flip-flopping to continue, bringing uncertainty along for the ride. Markets Monday the markets were in a jovial… read more...

Weekly Wrap: Don't Count Those Geopolitical Wins Too Early

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-26 07:13:48:000

This week the markets lost the vigor from last week as investors learned to not only to not count on those geopolitical wins too early in the game but to expect the negotiation flip-flopping to continue, bringing uncertainty along for the ride. Markets Monday the markets were in a jovial… read more...

Weekly Wrap: Don't Count Those Geopolitical Wins Too Early

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-26 07:13:48:000

This week the markets lost the vigor from last week as investors learned to not only to not count on those geopolitical wins too early in the game but to expect the negotiation flip-flopping to continue, bringing uncertainty along for the ride. Markets Monday the markets were in a jovial… read more...

Existing-Home Sales Slide In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 04:04:55:000

By Jill Mislinski Thursday morning's release of the April Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million units. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.56 million. The latest number represents a 2.5% decrease from the previous month… read more...

Existing-Home Sales Slide In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 04:04:55:000

By Jill Mislinski Thursday morning's release of the April Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million units. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.56 million. The latest number represents a 2.5% decrease from the previous month… read more...

Existing-Home Sales Slide In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 04:04:55:000

By Jill Mislinski Thursday morning's release of the April Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million units. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.56 million. The latest number represents a 2.5% decrease from the previous month… read more...

Existing-Home Sales Slide In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 04:04:55:000

By Jill Mislinski Thursday morning's release of the April Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million units. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.56 million. The latest number represents a 2.5% decrease from the previous month… read more...

Existing-Home Sales Slide In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 04:04:55:000

By Jill Mislinski Thursday morning's release of the April Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million units. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.56 million. The latest number represents a 2.5% decrease from the previous month… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:34:50:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:34:50:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:34:50:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:34:50:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:34:50:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000… read more...

Higher High In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:28:15:000

Despite a back and forth market over the last few days, individual investors have managed to show slightly more bullishness than last week. According to the weekly survey from AAII , bullish sentiment increased this week, from 36.68% up to 38.56%. That's the third straight weekly increase, … read more...

Higher High In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:28:15:000

Despite a back and forth market over the last few days, individual investors have managed to show slightly more bullishness than last week. According to the weekly survey from AAII , bullish sentiment increased this week, from 36.68% up to 38.56%. That's the third straight weekly increase, … read more...

Higher High In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:28:15:000

Despite a back and forth market over the last few days, individual investors have managed to show slightly more bullishness than last week. According to the weekly survey from AAII , bullish sentiment increased this week, from 36.68% up to 38.56%. That's the third straight weekly increase, … read more...

Higher High In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:28:15:000

Despite a back and forth market over the last few days, individual investors have managed to show slightly more bullishness than last week. According to the weekly survey from AAII , bullish sentiment increased this week, from 36.68% up to 38.56%. That's the third straight weekly increase, … read more...

Higher High In Bullish Sentiment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-25 01:28:15:000

Despite a back and forth market over the last few days, individual investors have managed to show slightly more bullishness than last week. According to the weekly survey from AAII , bullish sentiment increased this week, from 36.68% up to 38.56%. That's the third straight weekly increase, … read more...

7 Questions For Scott Glasser, Co-CIO And PM, Of ClearBridge Investments

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 12:30:50:000

By Scott Glasser , Co-CIO and Portfolio Manager at ClearBridge Investments, a Legg Mason affiliate What do you tell investors who ask about your outlook? I do not have a lot of concerns about 2018. It will probably be a positive single-digit year. The caveat is there are lots of p… read more...

7 Questions For Scott Glasser, Co-CIO And PM, Of ClearBridge Investments

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 12:30:50:000

By Scott Glasser , Co-CIO and Portfolio Manager at ClearBridge Investments, a Legg Mason affiliate What do you tell investors who ask about your outlook? I do not have a lot of concerns about 2018. It will probably be a positive single-digit year. The caveat is there are lots of p… read more...

7 Questions For Scott Glasser, Co-CIO And PM, Of ClearBridge Investments

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 12:30:50:000

By Scott Glasser , Co-CIO and Portfolio Manager at ClearBridge Investments, a Legg Mason affiliate What do you tell investors who ask about your outlook? I do not have a lot of concerns about 2018. It will probably be a positive single-digit year. The caveat is there are lots of p… read more...

Weekly Edge: Bank Regulation Scaling Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 09:03:48:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel President Trump is expected to sign legislation scaling back regulations on financial firms via the Dodd-Frank Law before Memorial Day, signaling the end to an era of strict regulation following the financial crisis of 2008, reported The Wal… read more...

Weekly Edge: Bank Regulation Scaling Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 09:03:48:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel President Trump is expected to sign legislation scaling back regulations on financial firms via the Dodd-Frank Law before Memorial Day, signaling the end to an era of strict regulation following the financial crisis of 2008, reported The Wal… read more...

Weekly Edge: Bank Regulation Scaling Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 09:03:48:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel President Trump is expected to sign legislation scaling back regulations on financial firms via the Dodd-Frank Law before Memorial Day, signaling the end to an era of strict regulation following the financial crisis of 2008, reported The Wal… read more...

Weekly Edge: Bank Regulation Scaling Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 09:03:48:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel President Trump is expected to sign legislation scaling back regulations on financial firms via the Dodd-Frank Law before Memorial Day, signaling the end to an era of strict regulation following the financial crisis of 2008, reported The Wal… read more...

Weekly Edge: Bank Regulation Scaling Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 09:03:48:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel President Trump is expected to sign legislation scaling back regulations on financial firms via the Dodd-Frank Law before Memorial Day, signaling the end to an era of strict regulation following the financial crisis of 2008, reported The Wal… read more...

Weekly Edge: Bank Regulation Scaling Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 09:03:48:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel President Trump is expected to sign legislation scaling back regulations on financial firms via the Dodd-Frank Law before Memorial Day, signaling the end to an era of strict regulation following the financial crisis of 2008, reported The Wal… read more...

Weekly Edge: Bank Regulation Scaling Back

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 09:03:48:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Rangel President Trump is expected to sign legislation scaling back regulations on financial firms via the Dodd-Frank Law before Memorial Day, signaling the end to an era of strict regulation following the financial crisis of 2008, reported The Wal… read more...

You're Paying Attention To The Wrong Interest Rate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 15:38:30:000

This special report by LMTR.com will highlight a few charts. Investors with a lot at stake should pay close attention to these gauges over the coming months. Failure to act on warning signs could be the difference between a comfortable retirement or years of slaving away at work. Investors hav… read more...

You're Paying Attention To The Wrong Interest Rate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 15:38:30:000

This special report by LMTR.com will highlight a few charts. Investors with a lot at stake should pay close attention to these gauges over the coming months. Failure to act on warning signs could be the difference between a comfortable retirement or years of slaving away at work. Investors hav… read more...

You're Paying Attention To The Wrong Interest Rate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 15:38:30:000

This special report by LMTR.com will highlight a few charts. Investors with a lot at stake should pay close attention to these gauges over the coming months. Failure to act on warning signs could be the difference between a comfortable retirement or years of slaving away at work. Investors hav… read more...

You're Paying Attention To The Wrong Interest Rate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 15:38:30:000

This special report by LMTR.com will highlight a few charts. Investors with a lot at stake should pay close attention to these gauges over the coming months. Failure to act on warning signs could be the difference between a comfortable retirement or years of slaving away at work. Investors hav… read more...

You're Paying Attention To The Wrong Interest Rate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 15:38:30:000

This special report by LMTR.com will highlight a few charts. Investors with a lot at stake should pay close attention to these gauges over the coming months. Failure to act on warning signs could be the difference between a comfortable retirement or years of slaving away at work. Investors hav… read more...

You're Paying Attention To The Wrong Interest Rate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 15:38:30:000

This special report by LMTR.com will highlight a few charts. Investors with a lot at stake should pay close attention to these gauges over the coming months. Failure to act on warning signs could be the difference between a comfortable retirement or years of slaving away at work. Investors hav… read more...

You're Paying Attention To The Wrong Interest Rate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 15:38:30:000

This special report by LMTR.com will highlight a few charts. Investors with a lot at stake should pay close attention to these gauges over the coming months. Failure to act on warning signs could be the difference between a comfortable retirement or years of slaving away at work. Investors hav… read more...

The Trend Is Your Friend - Until It's Not

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 12:16:59:000

Before February 2018, the S&P 500 was positive for a record 15 months in a row. Despite the seemingly perfect track record, a series of daily record highs, and unprecedented levels of positive investor sentiment, the market's tone changed abruptly in the last few days of January. Since the… read more...

The Trend Is Your Friend - Until It's Not

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 12:16:59:000

Before February 2018, the S&P 500 was positive for a record 15 months in a row. Despite the seemingly perfect track record, a series of daily record highs, and unprecedented levels of positive investor sentiment, the market's tone changed abruptly in the last few days of January. Since the… read more...

The Trend Is Your Friend - Until It's Not

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 12:16:59:000

Before February 2018, the S&P 500 was positive for a record 15 months in a row. Despite the seemingly perfect track record, a series of daily record highs, and unprecedented levels of positive investor sentiment, the market's tone changed abruptly in the last few days of January. Since the… read more...

The Trend Is Your Friend - Until It's Not

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 12:16:59:000

Before February 2018, the S&P 500 was positive for a record 15 months in a row. Despite the seemingly perfect track record, a series of daily record highs, and unprecedented levels of positive investor sentiment, the market's tone changed abruptly in the last few days of January. Since the… read more...

The Trend Is Your Friend - Until It's Not

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 12:16:59:000

Before February 2018, the S&P 500 was positive for a record 15 months in a row. Despite the seemingly perfect track record, a series of daily record highs, and unprecedented levels of positive investor sentiment, the market's tone changed abruptly in the last few days of January. Since the… read more...

The Trend Is Your Friend - Until It's Not

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 12:16:59:000

Before February 2018, the S&P 500 was positive for a record 15 months in a row. Despite the seemingly perfect track record, a series of daily record highs, and unprecedented levels of positive investor sentiment, the market's tone changed abruptly in the last few days of January. Since the… read more...

The Trend Is Your Friend - Until It's Not

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 12:16:59:000

Before February 2018, the S&P 500 was positive for a record 15 months in a row. Despite the seemingly perfect track record, a series of daily record highs, and unprecedented levels of positive investor sentiment, the market's tone changed abruptly in the last few days of January. Since the… read more...

Is It 1994 All Over Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 02:11:13:000

Forward 4-quarter estimate : $164.11 versus last week's $163.16 P/E ratio : 16.5x PEG ratio : 0.76x S&P 500 earnings yield : 6.05% versus 5.98% last week Year-over-year growth of forward estimate : +21.75% versus last week's 20.9% (Source: Forwar… read more...

Is It 1994 All Over Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 02:11:13:000

Forward 4-quarter estimate : $164.11 versus last week's $163.16 P/E ratio : 16.5x PEG ratio : 0.76x S&P 500 earnings yield : 6.05% versus 5.98% last week Year-over-year growth of forward estimate : +21.75% versus last week's 20.9% (Source: Forwar… read more...

Is It 1994 All Over Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 02:11:13:000

Forward 4-quarter estimate : $164.11 versus last week's $163.16 P/E ratio : 16.5x PEG ratio : 0.76x S&P 500 earnings yield : 6.05% versus 5.98% last week Year-over-year growth of forward estimate : +21.75% versus last week's 20.9% (Source: Forwar… read more...

Is It 1994 All Over Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 02:11:13:000

Forward 4-quarter estimate : $164.11 versus last week's $163.16 P/E ratio : 16.5x PEG ratio : 0.76x S&P 500 earnings yield : 6.05% versus 5.98% last week Year-over-year growth of forward estimate : +21.75% versus last week's 20.9% (Source: Forwar… read more...

Is It 1994 All Over Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 02:11:13:000

Forward 4-quarter estimate : $164.11 versus last week's $163.16 P/E ratio : 16.5x PEG ratio : 0.76x S&P 500 earnings yield : 6.05% versus 5.98% last week Year-over-year growth of forward estimate : +21.75% versus last week's 20.9% (Source: Forwar… read more...

Is It 1994 All Over Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 02:11:13:000

Forward 4-quarter estimate : $164.11 versus last week's $163.16 P/E ratio : 16.5x PEG ratio : 0.76x S&P 500 earnings yield : 6.05% versus 5.98% last week Year-over-year growth of forward estimate : +21.75% versus last week's 20.9% (Source: Forwar… read more...

Is It 1994 All Over Again?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 02:11:13:000

Forward 4-quarter estimate : $164.11 versus last week's $163.16 P/E ratio : 16.5x PEG ratio : 0.76x S&P 500 earnings yield : 6.05% versus 5.98% last week Year-over-year growth of forward estimate : +21.75% versus last week's 20.9% (Source: Forwar… read more...

Forget About 'Demand Deficiency'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 18:13:25:000

A short time ago people were writing thought pieces on the "demand deficient" environment, and other buzzwords like "secular stagnation", but as time has passed, structural challenges seem more like cyclical trivia. Just take a look at today's chart and you'll see the stark shift in the global… read more...

Forget About 'Demand Deficiency'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 18:13:25:000

A short time ago people were writing thought pieces on the "demand deficient" environment, and other buzzwords like "secular stagnation", but as time has passed, structural challenges seem more like cyclical trivia. Just take a look at today's chart and you'll see the stark shift in the global… read more...

Forget About 'Demand Deficiency'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 18:13:25:000

A short time ago people were writing thought pieces on the "demand deficient" environment, and other buzzwords like "secular stagnation", but as time has passed, structural challenges seem more like cyclical trivia. Just take a look at today's chart and you'll see the stark shift in the global… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - May 22, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 07:20:58:000

The Global Market Index (GMI) - an unmanaged, market-value weighted portfolio comprised of the major asset classes - is expected to earn an annualized 4.9% risk premium (return over the "risk-free" rate) in the long run, based on analysis of data through April 2018. Adjusting for short-ter… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - May 22, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 07:20:58:000

The Global Market Index (GMI) - an unmanaged, market-value weighted portfolio comprised of the major asset classes - is expected to earn an annualized 4.9% risk premium (return over the "risk-free" rate) in the long run, based on analysis of data through April 2018. Adjusting for short-ter… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - May 22, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 07:20:58:000

The Global Market Index (GMI) - an unmanaged, market-value weighted portfolio comprised of the major asset classes - is expected to earn an annualized 4.9% risk premium (return over the "risk-free" rate) in the long run, based on analysis of data through April 2018. Adjusting for short-ter… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - May 22, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 07:20:58:000

The Global Market Index (GMI) - an unmanaged, market-value weighted portfolio comprised of the major asset classes - is expected to earn an annualized 4.9% risk premium (return over the "risk-free" rate) in the long run, based on analysis of data through April 2018. Adjusting for short-ter… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - May 22, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 07:20:58:000

The Global Market Index (GMI) - an unmanaged, market-value weighted portfolio comprised of the major asset classes - is expected to earn an annualized 4.9% risk premium (return over the "risk-free" rate) in the long run, based on analysis of data through April 2018. Adjusting for short-ter… read more...

Good News Is Still Bad News, And That's Good News!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 05:00:16:000

Since secular bull markets generally end in a hail of good feelings and optimistic media and public pronouncements, it is safe to say we're not there yet. Take this piece, for example, from CNBC contributor Jeff Cox (a.k.a. The Bad News Bearer - June 6, 2013 ): " When earnings look this great… read more...

Good News Is Still Bad News, And That's Good News!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 05:00:16:000

Since secular bull markets generally end in a hail of good feelings and optimistic media and public pronouncements, it is safe to say we're not there yet. Take this piece, for example, from CNBC contributor Jeff Cox (a.k.a. The Bad News Bearer - June 6, 2013 ): " When earnings look this great… read more...

Good News Is Still Bad News, And That's Good News!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 05:00:16:000

Since secular bull markets generally end in a hail of good feelings and optimistic media and public pronouncements, it is safe to say we're not there yet. Take this piece, for example, from CNBC contributor Jeff Cox (a.k.a. The Bad News Bearer - June 6, 2013 ): " When earnings look this great… read more...

Good News Is Still Bad News, And That's Good News!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 05:00:16:000

Since secular bull markets generally end in a hail of good feelings and optimistic media and public pronouncements, it is safe to say we're not there yet. Take this piece, for example, from CNBC contributor Jeff Cox (a.k.a. The Bad News Bearer - June 6, 2013 ): " When earnings look this great… read more...

Good News Is Still Bad News, And That's Good News!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 05:00:16:000

Since secular bull markets generally end in a hail of good feelings and optimistic media and public pronouncements, it is safe to say we're not there yet. Take this piece, for example, from CNBC contributor Jeff Cox (a.k.a. The Bad News Bearer - June 6, 2013 ): " When earnings look this great… read more...

Investors Liked What They Saw During Earnings Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 04:29:29:000

Roughly 2,100 companies reported earnings during the unofficial Q1 2018 reporting period that ran from April 9th through May 18th. We track the 1-day stock price performance of every company that reports earnings. This obviously helps us monitor individual stock performance, but it also gives … read more...

Investors Liked What They Saw During Earnings Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 04:29:29:000

Roughly 2,100 companies reported earnings during the unofficial Q1 2018 reporting period that ran from April 9th through May 18th. We track the 1-day stock price performance of every company that reports earnings. This obviously helps us monitor individual stock performance, but it also gives … read more...

Investors Liked What They Saw During Earnings Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 04:29:29:000

Roughly 2,100 companies reported earnings during the unofficial Q1 2018 reporting period that ran from April 9th through May 18th. We track the 1-day stock price performance of every company that reports earnings. This obviously helps us monitor individual stock performance, but it also gives … read more...

Investors Liked What They Saw During Earnings Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 04:29:29:000

Roughly 2,100 companies reported earnings during the unofficial Q1 2018 reporting period that ran from April 9th through May 18th. We track the 1-day stock price performance of every company that reports earnings. This obviously helps us monitor individual stock performance, but it also gives … read more...

Investors Liked What They Saw During Earnings Season

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 04:29:29:000

Roughly 2,100 companies reported earnings during the unofficial Q1 2018 reporting period that ran from April 9th through May 18th. We track the 1-day stock price performance of every company that reports earnings. This obviously helps us monitor individual stock performance, but it also gives … read more...

Financial Sense Leading Economic Indicator Confirms Decelerating Growth Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:57:28:000

By FS Staff Our Financial Sense leading economic indicator (LEI) peaked in October 2017 and has experienced six months of consecutive declines. It is still in positive territory - meaning the risk of a recession over the next six months is quite low - but weakening, confirming the growth s… read more...

Financial Sense Leading Economic Indicator Confirms Decelerating Growth Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:57:28:000

By FS Staff Our Financial Sense leading economic indicator (LEI) peaked in October 2017 and has experienced six months of consecutive declines. It is still in positive territory - meaning the risk of a recession over the next six months is quite low - but weakening, confirming the growth s… read more...

Financial Sense Leading Economic Indicator Confirms Decelerating Growth Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:57:28:000

By FS Staff Our Financial Sense leading economic indicator (LEI) peaked in October 2017 and has experienced six months of consecutive declines. It is still in positive territory - meaning the risk of a recession over the next six months is quite low - but weakening, confirming the growth s… read more...

Financial Sense Leading Economic Indicator Confirms Decelerating Growth Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:57:28:000

By FS Staff Our Financial Sense leading economic indicator (LEI) peaked in October 2017 and has experienced six months of consecutive declines. It is still in positive territory - meaning the risk of a recession over the next six months is quite low - but weakening, confirming the growth s… read more...

Financial Sense Leading Economic Indicator Confirms Decelerating Growth Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:57:28:000

By FS Staff Our Financial Sense leading economic indicator (LEI) peaked in October 2017 and has experienced six months of consecutive declines. It is still in positive territory - meaning the risk of a recession over the next six months is quite low - but weakening, confirming the growth s… read more...

Margin Debt And The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:13:47:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: The NYSE has suspended its NYSE Member Firm margin data as of December 2017. We have replaced our Margin Debt data with FINRA data, which includes data for all firms, not just NYSE member firms. The New York Stock Exchange previously published end-of-month da… read more...

Margin Debt And The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:13:47:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: The NYSE has suspended its NYSE Member Firm margin data as of December 2017. We have replaced our Margin Debt data with FINRA data, which includes data for all firms, not just NYSE member firms. The New York Stock Exchange previously published end-of-month da… read more...

Margin Debt And The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:13:47:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: The NYSE has suspended its NYSE Member Firm margin data as of December 2017. We have replaced our Margin Debt data with FINRA data, which includes data for all firms, not just NYSE member firms. The New York Stock Exchange previously published end-of-month da… read more...

Margin Debt And The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:13:47:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: The NYSE has suspended its NYSE Member Firm margin data as of December 2017. We have replaced our Margin Debt data with FINRA data, which includes data for all firms, not just NYSE member firms. The New York Stock Exchange previously published end-of-month da… read more...

Margin Debt And The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:13:47:000

By Jill Mislinski Note: The NYSE has suspended its NYSE Member Firm margin data as of December 2017. We have replaced our Margin Debt data with FINRA data, which includes data for all firms, not just NYSE member firms. The New York Stock Exchange previously published end-of-month da… read more...

Small-Cap Breakout

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 00:55:29:000

While the large-cap S&P 500 remains in "correction" mode, the small-cap Russell 2,000 is in "breakout" mode. At the end of last week, the Russell 2,000 managed to break above its early 2018 highs to finish the week at new all-time highs. Below are two trading range charts of the Russell … read more...

Small-Cap Breakout

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 00:55:29:000

While the large-cap S&P 500 remains in "correction" mode, the small-cap Russell 2,000 is in "breakout" mode. At the end of last week, the Russell 2,000 managed to break above its early 2018 highs to finish the week at new all-time highs. Below are two trading range charts of the Russell … read more...

Small-Cap Breakout

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 00:55:29:000

While the large-cap S&P 500 remains in "correction" mode, the small-cap Russell 2,000 is in "breakout" mode. At the end of last week, the Russell 2,000 managed to break above its early 2018 highs to finish the week at new all-time highs. Below are two trading range charts of the Russell … read more...

Small-Cap Breakout

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 00:55:29:000

While the large-cap S&P 500 remains in "correction" mode, the small-cap Russell 2,000 is in "breakout" mode. At the end of last week, the Russell 2,000 managed to break above its early 2018 highs to finish the week at new all-time highs. Below are two trading range charts of the Russell … read more...

U.S. Dollar Strength Continues To Point To A Stronger Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 15:32:56:000

The value of the United States dollar has been rising since the end of January 2018 and this continued strength seems to indicate that the financial markets still believe that the U.S. economy will continue to grow. The U.S. economy has been growing since June 2009, almost for nine years&… read more...

U.S. Dollar Strength Continues To Point To A Stronger Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 15:32:56:000

The value of the United States dollar has been rising since the end of January 2018 and this continued strength seems to indicate that the financial markets still believe that the U.S. economy will continue to grow. The U.S. economy has been growing since June 2009, almost for nine years&… read more...

U.S. Dollar Strength Continues To Point To A Stronger Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 15:32:56:000

The value of the United States dollar has been rising since the end of January 2018 and this continued strength seems to indicate that the financial markets still believe that the U.S. economy will continue to grow. The U.S. economy has been growing since June 2009, almost for nine years&… read more...

U.S. Dollar Strength Continues To Point To A Stronger Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 15:32:56:000

The value of the United States dollar has been rising since the end of January 2018 and this continued strength seems to indicate that the financial markets still believe that the U.S. economy will continue to grow. The U.S. economy has been growing since June 2009, almost for nine years&… read more...

U.S.-China Trade Negotiations And The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 05:50:06:000

If investors have really been concerned about the threat of a potential trade war between the U.S. and China, the S&P 500 will very likely let us know how concerned they've been about it this week. That's because investors continually absorb new information about the business prospects f… read more...

U.S.-China Trade Negotiations And The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 05:50:06:000

If investors have really been concerned about the threat of a potential trade war between the U.S. and China, the S&P 500 will very likely let us know how concerned they've been about it this week. That's because investors continually absorb new information about the business prospects f… read more...

U.S.-China Trade Negotiations And The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 05:50:06:000

If investors have really been concerned about the threat of a potential trade war between the U.S. and China, the S&P 500 will very likely let us know how concerned they've been about it this week. That's because investors continually absorb new information about the business prospects f… read more...

U.S.-China Trade Negotiations And The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 05:50:06:000

If investors have really been concerned about the threat of a potential trade war between the U.S. and China, the S&P 500 will very likely let us know how concerned they've been about it this week. That's because investors continually absorb new information about the business prospects f… read more...

U.S.-China Trade Negotiations And The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 05:50:06:000

If investors have really been concerned about the threat of a potential trade war between the U.S. and China, the S&P 500 will very likely let us know how concerned they've been about it this week. That's because investors continually absorb new information about the business prospects f… read more...

U.S.-China Trade Negotiations And The S&P 500

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 05:50:06:000

If investors have really been concerned about the threat of a potential trade war between the U.S. and China, the S&P 500 will very likely let us know how concerned they've been about it this week. That's because investors continually absorb new information about the business prospects f… read more...

Dollar Strength Leads To Large Cap Stock Outperformance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 01:48:28:000

A recent strengthening of the US dollar has some investment commentary now favoring small cap stocks over large cap stocks. This is partly due to the earnings headwind that can negatively impact multinational companies as they convert foreign earnings back into the dollar. One recent report ti… read more...

Dollar Strength Leads To Large Cap Stock Outperformance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 01:48:28:000

A recent strengthening of the US dollar has some investment commentary now favoring small cap stocks over large cap stocks. This is partly due to the earnings headwind that can negatively impact multinational companies as they convert foreign earnings back into the dollar. One recent report ti… read more...

Dollar Strength Leads To Large Cap Stock Outperformance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 01:48:28:000

A recent strengthening of the US dollar has some investment commentary now favoring small cap stocks over large cap stocks. This is partly due to the earnings headwind that can negatively impact multinational companies as they convert foreign earnings back into the dollar. One recent report ti… read more...

Dollar Strength Leads To Large Cap Stock Outperformance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 01:48:28:000

A recent strengthening of the US dollar has some investment commentary now favoring small cap stocks over large cap stocks. This is partly due to the earnings headwind that can negatively impact multinational companies as they convert foreign earnings back into the dollar. One recent report ti… read more...

Dollar Strength Leads To Large Cap Stock Outperformance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 01:48:28:000

A recent strengthening of the US dollar has some investment commentary now favoring small cap stocks over large cap stocks. This is partly due to the earnings headwind that can negatively impact multinational companies as they convert foreign earnings back into the dollar. One recent report ti… read more...

Dollar Strength Leads To Large Cap Stock Outperformance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-21 01:48:28:000

A recent strengthening of the US dollar has some investment commentary now favoring small cap stocks over large cap stocks. This is partly due to the earnings headwind that can negatively impact multinational companies as they convert foreign earnings back into the dollar. One recent report ti… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Economic Data Pulls S&P Sectors In Different Directions; Vol Stays Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 10:53:59:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday Close US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) started Friday flat and lost modest ground in the weeks last trading session. Futures closed out near the days lows. Spot volatility went nowhere, which is perhaps promising for those who are taking … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Economic Data Pulls S&P Sectors In Different Directions; Vol Stays Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 10:53:59:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday Close US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) started Friday flat and lost modest ground in the weeks last trading session. Futures closed out near the days lows. Spot volatility went nowhere, which is perhaps promising for those who are taking … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Economic Data Pulls S&P Sectors In Different Directions; Vol Stays Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 10:53:59:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday Close US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) started Friday flat and lost modest ground in the weeks last trading session. Futures closed out near the days lows. Spot volatility went nowhere, which is perhaps promising for those who are taking … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Economic Data Pulls S&P Sectors In Different Directions; Vol Stays Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 10:53:59:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday Close US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) started Friday flat and lost modest ground in the weeks last trading session. Futures closed out near the days lows. Spot volatility went nowhere, which is perhaps promising for those who are taking … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Economic Data Pulls S&P Sectors In Different Directions; Vol Stays Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 10:53:59:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday Close US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) started Friday flat and lost modest ground in the weeks last trading session. Futures closed out near the days lows. Spot volatility went nowhere, which is perhaps promising for those who are taking … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Economic Data Pulls S&P Sectors In Different Directions; Vol Stays Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 10:53:59:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday Close US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) started Friday flat and lost modest ground in the weeks last trading session. Futures closed out near the days lows. Spot volatility went nowhere, which is perhaps promising for those who are taking … read more...

Leverage Risk In Investment Markets Is Now Systemic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 09:24:29:000

Net margin debt is a measure of leverage investors carry in their market exposure, or, put differently, the level of debt accumulated on margin accounts. Back at the end of March 2018, the level of margin debt in the U.S. stock markets stood at just under $645.2 billion, second highest on reco… read more...

Leverage Risk In Investment Markets Is Now Systemic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 09:24:29:000

Net margin debt is a measure of leverage investors carry in their market exposure, or, put differently, the level of debt accumulated on margin accounts. Back at the end of March 2018, the level of margin debt in the U.S. stock markets stood at just under $645.2 billion, second highest on reco… read more...

Leverage Risk In Investment Markets Is Now Systemic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 09:24:29:000

Net margin debt is a measure of leverage investors carry in their market exposure, or, put differently, the level of debt accumulated on margin accounts. Back at the end of March 2018, the level of margin debt in the U.S. stock markets stood at just under $645.2 billion, second highest on reco… read more...

Leverage Risk In Investment Markets Is Now Systemic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 09:24:29:000

Net margin debt is a measure of leverage investors carry in their market exposure, or, put differently, the level of debt accumulated on margin accounts. Back at the end of March 2018, the level of margin debt in the U.S. stock markets stood at just under $645.2 billion, second highest on reco… read more...

Suspended Animation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 07:20:31:000

The financial markets are in a state of suspended animation pending resolution of the NAFTA and China trade negotiations and Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. The markets could break either way depending on the success or failure of any one of these negot… read more...

Suspended Animation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 07:20:31:000

The financial markets are in a state of suspended animation pending resolution of the NAFTA and China trade negotiations and Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. The markets could break either way depending on the success or failure of any one of these negot… read more...

Suspended Animation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 07:20:31:000

The financial markets are in a state of suspended animation pending resolution of the NAFTA and China trade negotiations and Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. The markets could break either way depending on the success or failure of any one of these negot… read more...

Suspended Animation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 07:20:31:000

The financial markets are in a state of suspended animation pending resolution of the NAFTA and China trade negotiations and Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. The markets could break either way depending on the success or failure of any one of these negot… read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - Mixed Signals And Indecision

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 06:30:26:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 ( SPY ) #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically, I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of cha… read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - Mixed Signals And Indecision

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 06:30:26:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 ( SPY ) #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically, I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of cha… read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - Mixed Signals And Indecision

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 06:30:26:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 ( SPY ) #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically, I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of cha… read more...

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - Mixed Signals And Indecision

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-20 06:30:26:000

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 ( SPY ) #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically, I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of cha… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 0.5% From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 10:17:16:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 dropped to start the week and recovered slightly by Friday. The index saw a loss of 0.54% from last Friday and 0.26% loss from yesterday. The index is up 0.64% YTD and is 5.57% below its record close. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-ye… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 0.5% From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 10:17:16:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 dropped to start the week and recovered slightly by Friday. The index saw a loss of 0.54% from last Friday and 0.26% loss from yesterday. The index is up 0.64% YTD and is 5.57% below its record close. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-ye… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 0.5% From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 10:17:16:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 dropped to start the week and recovered slightly by Friday. The index saw a loss of 0.54% from last Friday and 0.26% loss from yesterday. The index is up 0.64% YTD and is 5.57% below its record close. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-ye… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 0.5% From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 10:17:16:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 dropped to start the week and recovered slightly by Friday. The index saw a loss of 0.54% from last Friday and 0.26% loss from yesterday. The index is up 0.64% YTD and is 5.57% below its record close. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-ye… read more...

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 0.5% From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 10:17:16:000

By Jill Mislinski The S&P 500 dropped to start the week and recovered slightly by Friday. The index saw a loss of 0.54% from last Friday and 0.26% loss from yesterday. The index is up 0.64% YTD and is 5.57% below its record close. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-ye… read more...

OANDA Market Insights Podcast With Jazz FM

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 08:27:44:000

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam and Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart look back at the week's business and market news. This week: Italy deal spooks EU, Oil climbs ever higher and UK jobs Read more … read more...

OANDA Market Insights Podcast With Jazz FM

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 08:27:44:000

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam and Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart look back at the week's business and market news. This week: Italy deal spooks EU, Oil climbs ever higher and UK jobs Read more … read more...

OANDA Market Insights Podcast With Jazz FM

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 08:27:44:000

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam and Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart look back at the week's business and market news. This week: Italy deal spooks EU, Oil climbs ever higher and UK jobs Read more … read more...

OANDA Market Insights Podcast With Jazz FM

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 08:27:44:000

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam and Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart look back at the week's business and market news. This week: Italy deal spooks EU, Oil climbs ever higher and UK jobs Read more … read more...

OANDA Market Insights Podcast With Jazz FM

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-19 08:27:44:000

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam and Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart look back at the week's business and market news. This week: Italy deal spooks EU, Oil climbs ever higher and UK jobs Read more … read more...

A Wisconsin Fixed Effect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:42:21:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . Wisconsin's unemployment rate has dropped to 2.8 percentage points in April. The national rate is 3.9 percentage points. Proof of Walkernomics' success? Well, since on average Wisconsin's unemploy… read more...

A Wisconsin Fixed Effect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:42:21:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . Wisconsin's unemployment rate has dropped to 2.8 percentage points in April. The national rate is 3.9 percentage points. Proof of Walkernomics' success? Well, since on average Wisconsin's unemploy… read more...

A Wisconsin Fixed Effect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:42:21:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . Wisconsin's unemployment rate has dropped to 2.8 percentage points in April. The national rate is 3.9 percentage points. Proof of Walkernomics' success? Well, since on average Wisconsin's unemploy… read more...

A Wisconsin Fixed Effect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:42:21:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . Wisconsin's unemployment rate has dropped to 2.8 percentage points in April. The national rate is 3.9 percentage points. Proof of Walkernomics' success? Well, since on average Wisconsin's unemploy… read more...

A Wisconsin Fixed Effect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:42:21:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . Wisconsin's unemployment rate has dropped to 2.8 percentage points in April. The national rate is 3.9 percentage points. Proof of Walkernomics' success? Well, since on average Wisconsin's unemploy… read more...

A Wisconsin Fixed Effect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:42:21:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . Wisconsin's unemployment rate has dropped to 2.8 percentage points in April. The national rate is 3.9 percentage points. Proof of Walkernomics' success? Well, since on average Wisconsin's unemploy… read more...

April Employment In Wisconsin

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:22:47:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . DWD released April figures on Thursday . Nonfarm payroll employment fell 1000, private nonfarm payroll employment by 3000 (seasonally adjusted). Corresponding March figures were revised down by 4… read more...

April Employment In Wisconsin

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:22:47:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . DWD released April figures on Thursday . Nonfarm payroll employment fell 1000, private nonfarm payroll employment by 3000 (seasonally adjusted). Corresponding March figures were revised down by 4… read more...

April Employment In Wisconsin

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:22:47:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . DWD released April figures on Thursday . Nonfarm payroll employment fell 1000, private nonfarm payroll employment by 3000 (seasonally adjusted). Corresponding March figures were revised down by 4… read more...

April Employment In Wisconsin

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:22:47:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . DWD released April figures on Thursday . Nonfarm payroll employment fell 1000, private nonfarm payroll employment by 3000 (seasonally adjusted). Corresponding March figures were revised down by 4… read more...

April Employment In Wisconsin

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 01:22:47:000

Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 17, 2018, by Menzie Chinn here . DWD released April figures on Thursday . Nonfarm payroll employment fell 1000, private nonfarm payroll employment by 3000 (seasonally adjusted). Corresponding March figures were revised down by 4… read more...

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Increases Continue In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 00:57:01:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April increased to 109.4 from 109.0 in March. The Coincident Economic Index ((CEI)) came in at 103.5, up from the previous month. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased again in April, with positiv… read more...

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Increases Continue In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 00:57:01:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April increased to 109.4 from 109.0 in March. The Coincident Economic Index ((CEI)) came in at 103.5, up from the previous month. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased again in April, with positiv… read more...

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Increases Continue In April

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 00:57:01:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April increased to 109.4 from 109.0 in March. The Coincident Economic Index ((CEI)) came in at 103.5, up from the previous month. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased again in April, with positiv… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 00:48:26:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,25… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 00:48:26:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,25… read more...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K From Last Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 00:48:26:000

By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,25… read more...

'Breaking Out' Can Be Bad Or Good

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 06:07:55:000

By Jerry Wagner This weekend, a private high school in Miami staged its prom, and the theme was "Welcome to the jungle." No story there, right? But there was, as the school administration, seeking to make it an event, invited not only the students but what looked like a portion of the Mi… read more...

'Breaking Out' Can Be Bad Or Good

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 06:07:55:000

By Jerry Wagner This weekend, a private high school in Miami staged its prom, and the theme was "Welcome to the jungle." No story there, right? But there was, as the school administration, seeking to make it an event, invited not only the students but what looked like a portion of the Mi… read more...

'Breaking Out' Can Be Bad Or Good

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 06:07:55:000

By Jerry Wagner This weekend, a private high school in Miami staged its prom, and the theme was "Welcome to the jungle." No story there, right? But there was, as the school administration, seeking to make it an event, invited not only the students but what looked like a portion of the Mi… read more...

Energy: Market Leader

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 00:38:40:000

When was the last time weve been able to say that the Energy sector was a market leader? Well, you can say it now. While the S&P 500 is still over 5% from its 52-week closing high, the Energy sector is knocking on those levels and is currently down just 1% from its closing high. In… read more...

Energy: Market Leader

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 00:38:40:000

When was the last time weve been able to say that the Energy sector was a market leader? Well, you can say it now. While the S&P 500 is still over 5% from its 52-week closing high, the Energy sector is knocking on those levels and is currently down just 1% from its closing high. In… read more...

Energy: Market Leader

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 00:38:40:000

When was the last time weve been able to say that the Energy sector was a market leader? Well, you can say it now. While the S&P 500 is still over 5% from its 52-week closing high, the Energy sector is knocking on those levels and is currently down just 1% from its closing high. In… read more...

S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 00:24:43:000

As of yesterday, the S&P 500's trailing 12-month P/E ratio stood at 20.8. The high point for the S&P's P/E ratio for the current bull market was 23.34 hit on January 26 th , which was the same day the index made its last all-time high in price. Since those highs, the P/E has contracted… read more...

S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 00:24:43:000

As of yesterday, the S&P 500's trailing 12-month P/E ratio stood at 20.8. The high point for the S&P's P/E ratio for the current bull market was 23.34 hit on January 26 th , which was the same day the index made its last all-time high in price. Since those highs, the P/E has contracted… read more...

S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 00:24:43:000

As of yesterday, the S&P 500's trailing 12-month P/E ratio stood at 20.8. The high point for the S&P's P/E ratio for the current bull market was 23.34 hit on January 26 th , which was the same day the index made its last all-time high in price. Since those highs, the P/E has contracted… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Diversification: International Trading Pays

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 04:09:31:000

An intersting (and occasionally covered on this blog) chart via FactSet on earnings and revenue growth for S&P 500 constituents based on their exposure to international markets: As the above clearly shows, globally diversified (by source of activity) companies have stronger growth in ear… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Diversification: International Trading Pays

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 04:09:31:000

An intersting (and occasionally covered on this blog) chart via FactSet on earnings and revenue growth for S&P 500 constituents based on their exposure to international markets: As the above clearly shows, globally diversified (by source of activity) companies have stronger growth in ear… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Diversification: International Trading Pays

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 04:09:31:000

An intersting (and occasionally covered on this blog) chart via FactSet on earnings and revenue growth for S&P 500 constituents based on their exposure to international markets: As the above clearly shows, globally diversified (by source of activity) companies have stronger growth in ear… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Diversification: International Trading Pays

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 04:09:31:000

An intersting (and occasionally covered on this blog) chart via FactSet on earnings and revenue growth for S&P 500 constituents based on their exposure to international markets: As the above clearly shows, globally diversified (by source of activity) companies have stronger growth in ear… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Diversification: International Trading Pays

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 04:09:31:000

An intersting (and occasionally covered on this blog) chart via FactSet on earnings and revenue growth for S&P 500 constituents based on their exposure to international markets: As the above clearly shows, globally diversified (by source of activity) companies have stronger growth in ear… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Diversification: International Trading Pays

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 04:09:31:000

An intersting (and occasionally covered on this blog) chart via FactSet on earnings and revenue growth for S&P 500 constituents based on their exposure to international markets: As the above clearly shows, globally diversified (by source of activity) companies have stronger growth in ear… read more...

S&P 500 Earnings Diversification: International Trading Pays

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 04:09:31:000

An intersting (and occasionally covered on this blog) chart via FactSet on earnings and revenue growth for S&P 500 constituents based on their exposure to international markets: As the above clearly shows, globally diversified (by source of activity) companies have stronger growth in ear… read more...

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:37:08:000

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:37:08:000

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:37:08:000

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:37:08:000

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:37:08:000

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:37:08:000

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:37:08:000

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Often-Mentioned 2008 Crisis Chiefly Forgotten

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:31:40:000

While reading an article about the economy and how things are different this time, it occurred to me that while we constantly refer to the often mentioned "2008 crisis," it has been chiefly forgotten and we have learned very little. By this, I'm pointing to the harsh reality and the details. T… read more...

Often-Mentioned 2008 Crisis Chiefly Forgotten

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:31:40:000

While reading an article about the economy and how things are different this time, it occurred to me that while we constantly refer to the often mentioned "2008 crisis," it has been chiefly forgotten and we have learned very little. By this, I'm pointing to the harsh reality and the details. T… read more...

Often-Mentioned 2008 Crisis Chiefly Forgotten

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:31:40:000

While reading an article about the economy and how things are different this time, it occurred to me that while we constantly refer to the often mentioned "2008 crisis," it has been chiefly forgotten and we have learned very little. By this, I'm pointing to the harsh reality and the details. T… read more...

Often-Mentioned 2008 Crisis Chiefly Forgotten

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:31:40:000

While reading an article about the economy and how things are different this time, it occurred to me that while we constantly refer to the often mentioned "2008 crisis," it has been chiefly forgotten and we have learned very little. By this, I'm pointing to the harsh reality and the details. T… read more...

Often-Mentioned 2008 Crisis Chiefly Forgotten

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:31:40:000

While reading an article about the economy and how things are different this time, it occurred to me that while we constantly refer to the often mentioned "2008 crisis," it has been chiefly forgotten and we have learned very little. By this, I'm pointing to the harsh reality and the details. T… read more...

Often-Mentioned 2008 Crisis Chiefly Forgotten

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:31:40:000

While reading an article about the economy and how things are different this time, it occurred to me that while we constantly refer to the often mentioned "2008 crisis," it has been chiefly forgotten and we have learned very little. By this, I'm pointing to the harsh reality and the details. T… read more...

Often-Mentioned 2008 Crisis Chiefly Forgotten

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 02:31:40:000

While reading an article about the economy and how things are different this time, it occurred to me that while we constantly refer to the often mentioned "2008 crisis," it has been chiefly forgotten and we have learned very little. By this, I'm pointing to the harsh reality and the details. T… read more...

Economy Starts Second Quarter On Solid Footing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 01:43:37:000

By Mickey D. Levy Encouraging data on U.S. consumers and businesses suggest that GDP growth is on pace for a rebound in Q2 after a shaky and quirky Q1. Continued optimism among consumers, solid job growth, and low unemployment form the basis of our forecast for real consumption to grow n… read more...

Economy Starts Second Quarter On Solid Footing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 01:43:37:000

By Mickey D. Levy Encouraging data on U.S. consumers and businesses suggest that GDP growth is on pace for a rebound in Q2 after a shaky and quirky Q1. Continued optimism among consumers, solid job growth, and low unemployment form the basis of our forecast for real consumption to grow n… read more...

Economy Starts Second Quarter On Solid Footing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 01:43:37:000

By Mickey D. Levy Encouraging data on U.S. consumers and businesses suggest that GDP growth is on pace for a rebound in Q2 after a shaky and quirky Q1. Continued optimism among consumers, solid job growth, and low unemployment form the basis of our forecast for real consumption to grow n… read more...

Economy Starts Second Quarter On Solid Footing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 01:43:37:000

By Mickey D. Levy Encouraging data on U.S. consumers and businesses suggest that GDP growth is on pace for a rebound in Q2 after a shaky and quirky Q1. Continued optimism among consumers, solid job growth, and low unemployment form the basis of our forecast for real consumption to grow n… read more...

Economy Starts Second Quarter On Solid Footing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 01:43:37:000

By Mickey D. Levy Encouraging data on U.S. consumers and businesses suggest that GDP growth is on pace for a rebound in Q2 after a shaky and quirky Q1. Continued optimism among consumers, solid job growth, and low unemployment form the basis of our forecast for real consumption to grow n… read more...

Economy Starts Second Quarter On Solid Footing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 01:43:37:000

By Mickey D. Levy Encouraging data on U.S. consumers and businesses suggest that GDP growth is on pace for a rebound in Q2 after a shaky and quirky Q1. Continued optimism among consumers, solid job growth, and low unemployment form the basis of our forecast for real consumption to grow n… read more...

Technically Speaking: Return Of The Bull Or Bull Trap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:52:10:000

In this past weekend's newsletter, I updated our previous analysis for the breakout of the consolidation process which has been dragging on for the last couple of months. To wit: "From a bullish perspective, there are several points to consider: The short-term 'sell signal' w… read more...

Technically Speaking: Return Of The Bull Or Bull Trap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:52:10:000

In this past weekend's newsletter, I updated our previous analysis for the breakout of the consolidation process which has been dragging on for the last couple of months. To wit: "From a bullish perspective, there are several points to consider: The short-term 'sell signal' w… read more...

Technically Speaking: Return Of The Bull Or Bull Trap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:52:10:000

In this past weekend's newsletter, I updated our previous analysis for the breakout of the consolidation process which has been dragging on for the last couple of months. To wit: "From a bullish perspective, there are several points to consider: The short-term 'sell signal' w… read more...

Technically Speaking: Return Of The Bull Or Bull Trap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:52:10:000

In this past weekend's newsletter, I updated our previous analysis for the breakout of the consolidation process which has been dragging on for the last couple of months. To wit: "From a bullish perspective, there are several points to consider: The short-term 'sell signal' w… read more...

Technically Speaking: Return Of The Bull Or Bull Trap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:52:10:000

In this past weekend's newsletter, I updated our previous analysis for the breakout of the consolidation process which has been dragging on for the last couple of months. To wit: "From a bullish perspective, there are several points to consider: The short-term 'sell signal' w… read more...

Technically Speaking: Return Of The Bull Or Bull Trap?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:52:10:000

In this past weekend's newsletter, I updated our previous analysis for the breakout of the consolidation process which has been dragging on for the last couple of months. To wit: "From a bullish perspective, there are several points to consider: The short-term 'sell signal' w… read more...

Should Investors Worry About U.S. Earnings?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:25:39:000

US companies reported stellar first-quarter profits this year. But some investors suspect that earnings growth has plateaued. Our research suggests that slowing earnings growth means nothing for stock prices. As earnings season draws to a close, the results look pretty spectacular. US compan… read more...

Should Investors Worry About U.S. Earnings?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:25:39:000

US companies reported stellar first-quarter profits this year. But some investors suspect that earnings growth has plateaued. Our research suggests that slowing earnings growth means nothing for stock prices. As earnings season draws to a close, the results look pretty spectacular. US compan… read more...

Should Investors Worry About U.S. Earnings?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:25:39:000

US companies reported stellar first-quarter profits this year. But some investors suspect that earnings growth has plateaued. Our research suggests that slowing earnings growth means nothing for stock prices. As earnings season draws to a close, the results look pretty spectacular. US compan… read more...

Should Investors Worry About U.S. Earnings?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:25:39:000

US companies reported stellar first-quarter profits this year. But some investors suspect that earnings growth has plateaued. Our research suggests that slowing earnings growth means nothing for stock prices. As earnings season draws to a close, the results look pretty spectacular. US compan… read more...

Should Investors Worry About U.S. Earnings?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:25:39:000

US companies reported stellar first-quarter profits this year. But some investors suspect that earnings growth has plateaued. Our research suggests that slowing earnings growth means nothing for stock prices. As earnings season draws to a close, the results look pretty spectacular. US compan… read more...

Should Investors Worry About U.S. Earnings?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 08:25:39:000

US companies reported stellar first-quarter profits this year. But some investors suspect that earnings growth has plateaued. Our research suggests that slowing earnings growth means nothing for stock prices. As earnings season draws to a close, the results look pretty spectacular. US compan… read more...

To Say That Stock Prices Are Determined By Investor Emotion Is Not To Say That Economic Developments Don't Matter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:43:43:000

By Rob Bennett Theres really only one difference between Buy-and-Hold and Valuation-Informed Indexing - Buy-and-Hold is rooted in the premise that stock price changes are caused by economic developments, while Valuation-Informed Indexing is rooted in the premise that stock price ch… read more...

To Say That Stock Prices Are Determined By Investor Emotion Is Not To Say That Economic Developments Don't Matter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:43:43:000

By Rob Bennett Theres really only one difference between Buy-and-Hold and Valuation-Informed Indexing - Buy-and-Hold is rooted in the premise that stock price changes are caused by economic developments, while Valuation-Informed Indexing is rooted in the premise that stock price ch… read more...

To Say That Stock Prices Are Determined By Investor Emotion Is Not To Say That Economic Developments Don't Matter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:43:43:000

By Rob Bennett Theres really only one difference between Buy-and-Hold and Valuation-Informed Indexing - Buy-and-Hold is rooted in the premise that stock price changes are caused by economic developments, while Valuation-Informed Indexing is rooted in the premise that stock price ch… read more...

To Say That Stock Prices Are Determined By Investor Emotion Is Not To Say That Economic Developments Don't Matter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:43:43:000

By Rob Bennett Theres really only one difference between Buy-and-Hold and Valuation-Informed Indexing - Buy-and-Hold is rooted in the premise that stock price changes are caused by economic developments, while Valuation-Informed Indexing is rooted in the premise that stock price ch… read more...

To Say That Stock Prices Are Determined By Investor Emotion Is Not To Say That Economic Developments Don't Matter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:43:43:000

By Rob Bennett Theres really only one difference between Buy-and-Hold and Valuation-Informed Indexing - Buy-and-Hold is rooted in the premise that stock price changes are caused by economic developments, while Valuation-Informed Indexing is rooted in the premise that stock price ch… read more...

To Say That Stock Prices Are Determined By Investor Emotion Is Not To Say That Economic Developments Don't Matter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:43:43:000

By Rob Bennett Theres really only one difference between Buy-and-Hold and Valuation-Informed Indexing - Buy-and-Hold is rooted in the premise that stock price changes are caused by economic developments, while Valuation-Informed Indexing is rooted in the premise that stock price ch… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Is Expected To Rebound In The Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:24:41:000

US GDP growth in the second quarter is on track to accelerate, based on the median estimate of several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. If accurate, economic output is set to strengthen to a real 3.6% increase (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2, a solid improvement over the s… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Is Expected To Rebound In The Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:24:41:000

US GDP growth in the second quarter is on track to accelerate, based on the median estimate of several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. If accurate, economic output is set to strengthen to a real 3.6% increase (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2, a solid improvement over the s… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Is Expected To Rebound In The Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:24:41:000

US GDP growth in the second quarter is on track to accelerate, based on the median estimate of several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. If accurate, economic output is set to strengthen to a real 3.6% increase (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2, a solid improvement over the s… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Is Expected To Rebound In The Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:24:41:000

US GDP growth in the second quarter is on track to accelerate, based on the median estimate of several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. If accurate, economic output is set to strengthen to a real 3.6% increase (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2, a solid improvement over the s… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth Is Expected To Rebound In The Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:24:41:000

US GDP growth in the second quarter is on track to accelerate, based on the median estimate of several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. If accurate, economic output is set to strengthen to a real 3.6% increase (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2, a solid improvement over the s… read more...

Market Update: Putting Risk On

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:19:48:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian covers how news from the Middle East and beyond is affecting the market, and the number you need to watch in upcoming earnings Read more … read more...

Market Update: Putting Risk On

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:19:48:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian covers how news from the Middle East and beyond is affecting the market, and the number you need to watch in upcoming earnings Read more … read more...

Market Update: Putting Risk On

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:19:48:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian covers how news from the Middle East and beyond is affecting the market, and the number you need to watch in upcoming earnings Read more … read more...

Market Update: Putting Risk On

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:19:48:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian covers how news from the Middle East and beyond is affecting the market, and the number you need to watch in upcoming earnings Read more … read more...

Market Update: Putting Risk On

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 07:19:48:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian covers how news from the Middle East and beyond is affecting the market, and the number you need to watch in upcoming earnings Read more … read more...

Chart Of The Week: Loan Officers Give A Green Light For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 01:27:46:000

This week, it's the Fed's bank loan officer survey and the S&P 500 (SPY). The US Federal Reserve's loan officer survey provides insight into bank lending standards and can give an important cross check against the markets. So much so, that you could easily call this chart the bear market w… read more...

Chart Of The Week: Loan Officers Give A Green Light For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 01:27:46:000

This week, it's the Fed's bank loan officer survey and the S&P 500 (SPY). The US Federal Reserve's loan officer survey provides insight into bank lending standards and can give an important cross check against the markets. So much so, that you could easily call this chart the bear market w… read more...

Chart Of The Week: Loan Officers Give A Green Light For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 01:27:46:000

This week, it's the Fed's bank loan officer survey and the S&P 500 (SPY). The US Federal Reserve's loan officer survey provides insight into bank lending standards and can give an important cross check against the markets. So much so, that you could easily call this chart the bear market w… read more...

Chart Of The Week: Loan Officers Give A Green Light For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 01:27:46:000

This week, it's the Fed's bank loan officer survey and the S&P 500 (SPY). The US Federal Reserve's loan officer survey provides insight into bank lending standards and can give an important cross check against the markets. So much so, that you could easily call this chart the bear market w… read more...

Chart Of The Week: Loan Officers Give A Green Light For Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 01:27:46:000

This week, it's the Fed's bank loan officer survey and the S&P 500 (SPY). The US Federal Reserve's loan officer survey provides insight into bank lending standards and can give an important cross check against the markets. So much so, that you could easily call this chart the bear market w… read more...

Foreign Holdings, Pain And S&P 1,600

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-17 06:38:12:000

In one of the earlier articles leading up to my volatility and mini-correction call, I mentioned that the run up in stocks could have been due to foreign direct investment spiking. Turns out, that's exactly what it was: Turns out that a lot of foreign money is pouring into the U.S. stock mar… read more...

We Are Back To 'Bad-News-Is-Good-News' And 'Good-News-Is-Great-News'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-17 06:15:54:000

This week the markets shrugged off last week's fears and went back to the slow and steady melt up, despite economic news that looked likely to once again rock the boat. By Thursday's close, the S&P 500 had gained 5.8% from the prior Friday's open, putting it and the rest of the major marke… read more...

Why Investors Truly Have 'Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-16 02:11:58:000

The majority of the research I do is company-specific. But over the past few years, I've been much more concerned with the macro risks to my micro strategy. Extreme valuations, matched by euphoric sentiment and technical warning signs, have had me focusing on the big picture more than I normal… read more...

Why Investors Truly Have 'Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-16 02:11:58:000

The majority of the research I do is company-specific. But over the past few years, I've been much more concerned with the macro risks to my micro strategy. Extreme valuations, matched by euphoric sentiment and technical warning signs, have had me focusing on the big picture more than I normal… read more...

Why Investors Truly Have 'Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-16 02:11:58:000

The majority of the research I do is company-specific. But over the past few years, I've been much more concerned with the macro risks to my micro strategy. Extreme valuations, matched by euphoric sentiment and technical warning signs, have had me focusing on the big picture more than I normal… read more...

Why Investors Truly Have 'Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-16 02:11:58:000

The majority of the research I do is company-specific. But over the past few years, I've been much more concerned with the macro risks to my micro strategy. Extreme valuations, matched by euphoric sentiment and technical warning signs, have had me focusing on the big picture more than I normal… read more...

Why Investors Truly Have 'Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-16 02:11:58:000

The majority of the research I do is company-specific. But over the past few years, I've been much more concerned with the macro risks to my micro strategy. Extreme valuations, matched by euphoric sentiment and technical warning signs, have had me focusing on the big picture more than I normal… read more...

Why Investors Truly Have 'Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-16 02:11:58:000

The majority of the research I do is company-specific. But over the past few years, I've been much more concerned with the macro risks to my micro strategy. Extreme valuations, matched by euphoric sentiment and technical warning signs, have had me focusing on the big picture more than I normal… read more...

Why Investors Truly Have 'Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-16 02:11:58:000

The majority of the research I do is company-specific. But over the past few years, I've been much more concerned with the macro risks to my micro strategy. Extreme valuations, matched by euphoric sentiment and technical warning signs, have had me focusing on the big picture more than I normal… read more...

Why Investors Truly Have 'Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-16 02:11:58:000

The majority of the research I do is company-specific. But over the past few years, I've been much more concerned with the macro risks to my micro strategy. Extreme valuations, matched by euphoric sentiment and technical warning signs, have had me focusing on the big picture more than I normal… read more...

Why Investors Truly Have 'Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-16 02:11:58:000

The majority of the research I do is company-specific. But over the past few years, I've been much more concerned with the macro risks to my micro strategy. Extreme valuations, matched by euphoric sentiment and technical warning signs, have had me focusing on the big picture more than I normal… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

There Will Be No Economic Boom

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 07:50:24:000

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year "continuing resolution, or C.R.," to keep the government funded through the 2018 elections. While "fiscal conservatism" was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the "Re-election" Gods," the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ulti… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 06:57:43:000

It's always cute when most commentary is left hanging with "better than expected." The straight fact is that the US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn't as low as some "analysts" were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as "hot" and in some places "blistering"… read more...

History Just Called - It's Time For Another Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 13:51:21:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome The Macro Investor as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more Hi… read more...

History Just Called - It's Time For Another Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 13:51:21:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome The Macro Investor as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more Hi… read more...

History Just Called - It's Time For Another Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 13:51:21:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome The Macro Investor as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more Hi… read more...

History Just Called - It's Time For Another Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 13:51:21:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome The Macro Investor as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more Hi… read more...

History Just Called - It's Time For Another Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 13:51:21:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome The Macro Investor as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more Hi… read more...

History Just Called - It's Time For Another Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 13:51:21:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome The Macro Investor as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more Hi… read more...

History Just Called - It's Time For Another Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 13:51:21:000

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome The Macro Investor as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more Hi… read more...

Small Businesses Remain Highly Optimistic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 07:09:07:000

Tuesday's report by NFIB on small business optimism for the month of January places the reading in the top five highest, coming in at 106.9. According to NFIB, the response to "Now Is A Good Time To Expand" was 32% and is the highest level for this category in the Index's 45-year history. To… read more...

Small Businesses Remain Highly Optimistic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 07:09:07:000

Tuesday's report by NFIB on small business optimism for the month of January places the reading in the top five highest, coming in at 106.9. According to NFIB, the response to "Now Is A Good Time To Expand" was 32% and is the highest level for this category in the Index's 45-year history. To… read more...

Small Businesses Remain Highly Optimistic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 07:09:07:000

Tuesday's report by NFIB on small business optimism for the month of January places the reading in the top five highest, coming in at 106.9. According to NFIB, the response to "Now Is A Good Time To Expand" was 32% and is the highest level for this category in the Index's 45-year history. To… read more...

Small Businesses Remain Highly Optimistic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 07:09:07:000

Tuesday's report by NFIB on small business optimism for the month of January places the reading in the top five highest, coming in at 106.9. According to NFIB, the response to "Now Is A Good Time To Expand" was 32% and is the highest level for this category in the Index's 45-year history. To… read more...

Small Businesses Remain Highly Optimistic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 07:09:07:000

Tuesday's report by NFIB on small business optimism for the month of January places the reading in the top five highest, coming in at 106.9. According to NFIB, the response to "Now Is A Good Time To Expand" was 32% and is the highest level for this category in the Index's 45-year history. To… read more...

Small Businesses Remain Highly Optimistic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 07:09:07:000

Tuesday's report by NFIB on small business optimism for the month of January places the reading in the top five highest, coming in at 106.9. According to NFIB, the response to "Now Is A Good Time To Expand" was 32% and is the highest level for this category in the Index's 45-year history. To… read more...

Small Businesses Remain Highly Optimistic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 07:09:07:000

Tuesday's report by NFIB on small business optimism for the month of January places the reading in the top five highest, coming in at 106.9. According to NFIB, the response to "Now Is A Good Time To Expand" was 32% and is the highest level for this category in the Index's 45-year history. To… read more...

It's All Classic: The Main Questions Are About Timing And What The Next Downturn Will Be Like

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:44:10:000

Let's start by putting what's happening within the context of the classic short-term debt/business cycle. What is Classic? In the "late-cycle" phase of the short-term debt/business cycle, when (a) an economy's demand is increasing at a rate that is faster than the capacity for it to produc… read more...

It's All Classic: The Main Questions Are About Timing And What The Next Downturn Will Be Like

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:44:10:000

Let's start by putting what's happening within the context of the classic short-term debt/business cycle. What is Classic? In the "late-cycle" phase of the short-term debt/business cycle, when (a) an economy's demand is increasing at a rate that is faster than the capacity for it to produc… read more...

It's All Classic: The Main Questions Are About Timing And What The Next Downturn Will Be Like

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:44:10:000

Let's start by putting what's happening within the context of the classic short-term debt/business cycle. What is Classic? In the "late-cycle" phase of the short-term debt/business cycle, when (a) an economy's demand is increasing at a rate that is faster than the capacity for it to produc… read more...

It's All Classic: The Main Questions Are About Timing And What The Next Downturn Will Be Like

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:44:10:000

Let's start by putting what's happening within the context of the classic short-term debt/business cycle. What is Classic? In the "late-cycle" phase of the short-term debt/business cycle, when (a) an economy's demand is increasing at a rate that is faster than the capacity for it to produc… read more...

It's All Classic: The Main Questions Are About Timing And What The Next Downturn Will Be Like

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:44:10:000

Let's start by putting what's happening within the context of the classic short-term debt/business cycle. What is Classic? In the "late-cycle" phase of the short-term debt/business cycle, when (a) an economy's demand is increasing at a rate that is faster than the capacity for it to produc… read more...

It's All Classic: The Main Questions Are About Timing And What The Next Downturn Will Be Like

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:44:10:000

Let's start by putting what's happening within the context of the classic short-term debt/business cycle. What is Classic? In the "late-cycle" phase of the short-term debt/business cycle, when (a) an economy's demand is increasing at a rate that is faster than the capacity for it to produc… read more...

It's All Classic: The Main Questions Are About Timing And What The Next Downturn Will Be Like

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:44:10:000

Let's start by putting what's happening within the context of the classic short-term debt/business cycle. What is Classic? In the "late-cycle" phase of the short-term debt/business cycle, when (a) an economy's demand is increasing at a rate that is faster than the capacity for it to produc… read more...

Everything You Need To Know About The Future Of Our Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:23:22:000

Danielle and I are coming to you with a wealth of information about where we think the stock market is headed in our future and how the best Rule #1 gurus are preparing. We love to talk about the market and the different choices we can make, but remember that nothing should be considered advic… read more...

Everything You Need To Know About The Future Of Our Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:23:22:000

Danielle and I are coming to you with a wealth of information about where we think the stock market is headed in our future and how the best Rule #1 gurus are preparing. We love to talk about the market and the different choices we can make, but remember that nothing should be considered advic… read more...

Everything You Need To Know About The Future Of Our Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:23:22:000

Danielle and I are coming to you with a wealth of information about where we think the stock market is headed in our future and how the best Rule #1 gurus are preparing. We love to talk about the market and the different choices we can make, but remember that nothing should be considered advic… read more...

Everything You Need To Know About The Future Of Our Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:23:22:000

Danielle and I are coming to you with a wealth of information about where we think the stock market is headed in our future and how the best Rule #1 gurus are preparing. We love to talk about the market and the different choices we can make, but remember that nothing should be considered advic… read more...

Everything You Need To Know About The Future Of Our Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:23:22:000

Danielle and I are coming to you with a wealth of information about where we think the stock market is headed in our future and how the best Rule #1 gurus are preparing. We love to talk about the market and the different choices we can make, but remember that nothing should be considered advic… read more...

Everything You Need To Know About The Future Of Our Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:23:22:000

Danielle and I are coming to you with a wealth of information about where we think the stock market is headed in our future and how the best Rule #1 gurus are preparing. We love to talk about the market and the different choices we can make, but remember that nothing should be considered advic… read more...

Everything You Need To Know About The Future Of Our Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 05:23:22:000

Danielle and I are coming to you with a wealth of information about where we think the stock market is headed in our future and how the best Rule #1 gurus are preparing. We love to talk about the market and the different choices we can make, but remember that nothing should be considered advic… read more...

NFIB Small Business Survey: 'Now Is A Good Time To Expand'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 02:36:11:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for January came in at 106.9, up 2.0 from the previous month. The index is at the 99th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com foreca… read more...

NFIB Small Business Survey: 'Now Is A Good Time To Expand'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 02:36:11:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for January came in at 106.9, up 2.0 from the previous month. The index is at the 99th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com foreca… read more...

NFIB Small Business Survey: 'Now Is A Good Time To Expand'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 02:36:11:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for January came in at 106.9, up 2.0 from the previous month. The index is at the 99th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com foreca… read more...

NFIB Small Business Survey: 'Now Is A Good Time To Expand'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 02:36:11:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for January came in at 106.9, up 2.0 from the previous month. The index is at the 99th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com foreca… read more...

NFIB Small Business Survey: 'Now Is A Good Time To Expand'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-14 02:36:11:000

By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for January came in at 106.9, up 2.0 from the previous month. The index is at the 99th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com foreca…