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AGZ

iShares Agency Bond ETF

Agz

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Summary

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Agency Bond Index. The underlying index measures the performance of the agency sector of the U.S. government bond market and is comprised of investment-grade U.S. dollar-denominated publicly-issued government agency bonds or debentures. The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index.

Market Cap: 449 Million

Primary Exchange: NYSE Arca

Website: http://www.ishares.com

Shares Outstanding: 4 Million

Float: 4 Million

Dividend: 1.7883 (1.59%)

Beta: -0.042977

Sector:

Industry:

Short Interest (Jan 15, 2013): 6.1 Thousand

Bond Type:

Ethical Flags

Longest drawdown: 544 trading days

From: 2016-07-06 To: 2018-12-14

Lowest Point:

Many Smaller Banks Getting Hurt By Rising Interest Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-17 11:26:31:000

" Small Banks Brace for Deposit Wars As Interest Rate Rise , Reads the headlines in the Wall Street Journal. The subtitle: Small, regional institutions see profit margins shrink due to high deposit costs, as the slow march of Federal Reserve interest rate moves impact… read more...

Inflation: The 5 Factors All Investors Need To Understand

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 11:47:18:000

The inflation figures for November showed a slightly lower year over year percent change Vs. the previous month, however, it showed that the trend is still deceleration. I expect this trend to continue. Inflation grew 2.21% year over year in November. It peaked this past year in July at 2.89… read more...

Inflation: The 5 Factors All Investors Need To Understand

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 11:47:18:000

The inflation figures for November showed a slightly lower year over year percent change Vs. the previous month, however, it showed that the trend is still deceleration. I expect this trend to continue. Inflation grew 2.21% year over year in November. It peaked this past year in July at 2.89… read more...

Inflation: The 5 Factors All Investors Need To Understand

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 11:47:18:000

The inflation figures for November showed a slightly lower year over year percent change Vs. the previous month, however, it showed that the trend is still deceleration. I expect this trend to continue. Inflation grew 2.21% year over year in November. It peaked this past year in July at 2.89… read more...

Credit Concerns? Consider Agency MBS

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 08:59:34:000

By Nick Childs As the credit cycle progresses, Agency MBS could present compelling opportunities for fixed income investors. Portfolio Manager Nick Childs explains why. Key Takeaways As we progress toward the latter stages of the credit cycle, the historically countercyclical and … read more...

Credit Concerns? Consider Agency MBS

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 08:59:34:000

By Nick Childs As the credit cycle progresses, Agency MBS could present compelling opportunities for fixed income investors. Portfolio Manager Nick Childs explains why. Key Takeaways As we progress toward the latter stages of the credit cycle, the historically countercyclical and … read more...

Credit Concerns? Consider Agency MBS

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 08:59:34:000

By Nick Childs As the credit cycle progresses, Agency MBS could present compelling opportunities for fixed income investors. Portfolio Manager Nick Childs explains why. Key Takeaways As we progress toward the latter stages of the credit cycle, the historically countercyclical and … read more...

Liquidity Keeps Economy, Financial Markets Going

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-13 16:47:29:000

As the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, began increasing its policy rate of interest and even began to oversee the reduction in the Feds portfolio of securities, commercial banks and financial markets continued to possess abundant amounts of liquidity to pr… read more...

The U.S. Dollar In 2019: Stronger Rather Than Weaker

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-11 12:01:57:000

Well, its time to take a look at the 2019 future for the value of the U.S. dollar. In 2018, the U.S. dollar strengthened but, not initially. At the start of the year, it took a little more than $1.2000 to purchase one Euro. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was just a little u… read more...

Powell And 'Below Neutral'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-11 10:50:24:000

This episode of Real Visions The One Thing with AK Fallible is all about the Federal Reserve and how they control the economy. To understand why investors pay so much attention to the Fed, we need to go back to 2008, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke saved the world economy! Well… read more...

The Dollar Waits For News From Europe And The Fed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-10 06:49:00:000

We have seen wild action in many markets over recent days and weeks. The price of crude oil dropped from a high of $76.90 per barrel on the nearby NYMEX futures contract on October 3 to under $50 at the end of November. The stock market that experienced increased price variance during the typi… read more...

The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling A Recession: Update - December 7, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-07 12:21:24:000

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the November 2018 rate … read more...

The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling A Recession: Update - December 7, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-07 12:21:24:000

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the November 2018 rate … read more...

The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling A Recession: Update - December 7, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-07 12:21:24:000

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the November 2018 rate … read more...

Is The Market Calling The Fed's Bluff?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-07 11:32:05:000

As turmoil in the stock market persists and wild intraday gyrations become a daily occurrence, investors have started to question the idea of a rate hike in December. Market participants have also changed their expectations of monetary tightening in 2019 markedly. As the stock market sells of… read more...

Is The Market Calling The Fed's Bluff?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-07 11:32:05:000

As turmoil in the stock market persists and wild intraday gyrations become a daily occurrence, investors have started to question the idea of a rate hike in December. Market participants have also changed their expectations of monetary tightening in 2019 markedly. As the stock market sells of… read more...

Is The Market Calling The Fed's Bluff?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-07 11:32:05:000

As turmoil in the stock market persists and wild intraday gyrations become a daily occurrence, investors have started to question the idea of a rate hike in December. Market participants have also changed their expectations of monetary tightening in 2019 markedly. As the stock market sells of… read more...

The United States/China Technology War: Looking Beyond Trade Wars

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 18:10:00:000

One sentence captured my attention this morning and continues to stimulate my thinking. The sentence appeared in the David Zweig op-ed piece in the Financial Times and alludes to the perceived trade war between the US and China and goes like this: The fight over trade is merely a s… read more...

McCullough: Am I Bearish Enough?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 16:38:48:000

WHY ARENT YOU MORE BEARISH? On the road this last week in Boston and Toronto, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale met with many institutional investors to discuss our contrarian 4Q 2018 macro calls. According to Darius, the be… read more...

McCullough: Am I Bearish Enough?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 16:38:48:000

WHY ARENT YOU MORE BEARISH? On the road this last week in Boston and Toronto, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale met with many institutional investors to discuss our contrarian 4Q 2018 macro calls. According to Darius, the be… read more...

McCullough: Am I Bearish Enough?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 16:38:48:000

WHY ARENT YOU MORE BEARISH? On the road this last week in Boston and Toronto, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale met with many institutional investors to discuss our contrarian 4Q 2018 macro calls. According to Darius, the be… read more...

Short-Term Rates Aren't So Sure About 3-4 More Hikes - Let's Start With One

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 16:17:33:000

Short-Term Rates Aren't So Sure About 3-4 More Hikes Starting at the beginning of 2018 and through the third quarter, the S&P 500 ( SPY ) was on track for solid gains and consensus growth estimates continued to increase. As a result of a higher stock market, peak inflation and elevated g… read more...

Short-Term Rates Aren't So Sure About 3-4 More Hikes - Let's Start With One

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 16:17:33:000

Short-Term Rates Aren't So Sure About 3-4 More Hikes Starting at the beginning of 2018 and through the third quarter, the S&P 500 ( SPY ) was on track for solid gains and consensus growth estimates continued to increase. As a result of a higher stock market, peak inflation and elevated g… read more...

Short-Term Rates Aren't So Sure About 3-4 More Hikes - Let's Start With One

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 16:17:33:000

Short-Term Rates Aren't So Sure About 3-4 More Hikes Starting at the beginning of 2018 and through the third quarter, the S&P 500 ( SPY ) was on track for solid gains and consensus growth estimates continued to increase. As a result of a higher stock market, peak inflation and elevated g… read more...

Banks Report Weakening Demand For Loans - The Slowdown Comes To The U.S.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-16 11:06:35:000

Banks Report Weakening Demand Each quarter, the Federal Reserve publishes the results of their survey of Senior Loan Officials at domestically chartered banks. The respondents' answers provide information that is critical to the Federal Reserve's monitoring of bank lending practices and cred… read more...

Banks Report Weakening Demand For Loans - The Slowdown Comes To The U.S.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-16 11:06:35:000

Banks Report Weakening Demand Each quarter, the Federal Reserve publishes the results of their survey of Senior Loan Officials at domestically chartered banks. The respondents' answers provide information that is critical to the Federal Reserve's monitoring of bank lending practices and cred… read more...

Banks Report Weakening Demand For Loans - The Slowdown Comes To The U.S.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-16 11:06:35:000

Banks Report Weakening Demand Each quarter, the Federal Reserve publishes the results of their survey of Senior Loan Officials at domestically chartered banks. The respondents' answers provide information that is critical to the Federal Reserve's monitoring of bank lending practices and cred… read more...

How Fragile Is The Financial System?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-15 14:07:21:000

Hy Minsky, the economist, was well known for his concern about financial market fragility and the role it played in financial crises. It is interesting and timely that john Plender, a columnist at the Financial Times, takes a look at the work of Mr. Minsky at this time. Mr. Minsky did no… read more...

When This Liquidity Bubble Pops, We'll Face The Biggest Crisis Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 17:34:34:000

Debt is a huge a drag on the economy. Its especially true after it rises over the 80 to 90% of GDP level. US government debt is now 106% of GDP. And if you add state and local debt, total government debt is over 120% of GDP. Shades of Italy and Greece. Off-Budget Deficits Cong… read more...

When This Liquidity Bubble Pops, We'll Face The Biggest Crisis Yet

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 17:34:34:000

Debt is a huge a drag on the economy. Its especially true after it rises over the 80 to 90% of GDP level. US government debt is now 106% of GDP. And if you add state and local debt, total government debt is over 120% of GDP. Shades of Italy and Greece. Off-Budget Deficits Cong… read more...

VIDEO: Top 5 Charts Of The Week - Oil And Quantitative Tightening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 12:36:39:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week we look at the f… read more...

VIDEO: Top 5 Charts Of The Week - Oil And Quantitative Tightening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 12:36:39:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week we look at the f… read more...

Midterm Elections: Gridlock Was The Best Possible Outcome

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 10:40:45:000

Celebrated value investor Benjamin Graham, who mentored a young Warren Buffett, liked to say that the market is a voting machine in the short term, a weighing machine in the long term. Last week the market voted to reward stocks in the aftermath of the midterm elections, which gave Democrats c… read more...

Midterm Elections: Gridlock Was The Best Possible Outcome

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 10:40:45:000

Celebrated value investor Benjamin Graham, who mentored a young Warren Buffett, liked to say that the market is a voting machine in the short term, a weighing machine in the long term. Last week the market voted to reward stocks in the aftermath of the midterm elections, which gave Democrats c… read more...

Federal Budget: Out Of Control Number 2

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-09 14:12:09:000

My post on October 16, 2018 was titled Federal Budget: Out of Control . In that article I concluded: The government debt situation is out of control and, under present circumstances, will only get worse. Creating the current debt situation in the tenth year of the c… read more...

Federal Budget: Out Of Control Number 2

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-09 14:12:09:000

My post on October 16, 2018 was titled Federal Budget: Out of Control . In that article I concluded: The government debt situation is out of control and, under present circumstances, will only get worse. Creating the current debt situation in the tenth year of the c… read more...

Federal Budget: Out Of Control Number 2

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-09 14:12:09:000

My post on October 16, 2018 was titled Federal Budget: Out of Control . In that article I concluded: The government debt situation is out of control and, under present circumstances, will only get worse. Creating the current debt situation in the tenth year of the c… read more...

Federal Budget: Out Of Control Number 2

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-09 14:12:09:000

My post on October 16, 2018 was titled Federal Budget: Out of Control . In that article I concluded: The government debt situation is out of control and, under present circumstances, will only get worse. Creating the current debt situation in the tenth year of the c… read more...

I Can't Imagine A Scenario Where This End In Less Than Chaos And Crisis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 16:45:01:000

Is debt good or bad? The answer is Yes. Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise dont have cash yet. Whether its wise or not depends on what you buy. Debt to educate yourself so you can get a bette… read more...

Why The Agency Mortgage Market Has Been Struggling In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-06 22:29:29:000

By Senior Portfolio Manager Jeff Brothers The agency mortgage market, one of the largest, most liquid fixed income sectors, has been struggling in 2018. Today, we wanted to take a closer look at the recent performance and share our outlook for the agency mortgage market. The agency mortg… read more...

The Bond Market Is Worried About Growth, Not Inflation - Will Growth Deliver? Is It The Election?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-06 11:39:54:000

The Bond Market Is Worried About Growth, Not Inflation - Will Growth Deliver? With long-term interest rates rising in recent months, many investors jump to the conclusion that the bond market is worried about inflation. When looking at nominal interest rates, there are two components, inflat… read more...

Despite Tariffs, Deficits And Wages, Inflation Expectations Are Falling

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-05 12:01:15:000

Despite Tariffs, Deficits And Wages, Inflation Expectations Are Falling With the constant discussion around tariffs, increasing fiscal deficits and wage pressure, the expectation for higher inflation has been and continues to be the mainstream narrative. The market is well aware of the th… read more...

Buffet And Buybacks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-05 11:13:00:000

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. repurchased more than $900 million of its stock in the third quarter of 2018. According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. , stock buybacks from S&P 500 companies totaled around $120 billion in the third quarter of 2018. For the first half of the year Companie… read more...

Why Inflation Is Going Down

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-04 11:11:06:000

The stock markets are jittery again. Political uncertainty must be considered for being part of the reason to be fearful. Markets will remain very jittery until at least after the elections. Post the elections, we'll be back to looking at the fundamentals of the economy more so. I thin… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: The Federal Reserve Is A Little Less Loose

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-02 18:38:29:000

Two weeks ago I wrote a post with the title, The Federal Reserve is Not Tight . Today, I am modifying this a little bit by saying that the Federal Reserve is a Little Tight. Last week, we got the first bit of news that maybe the commercial banks were experiencing just a l… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: The Federal Reserve Is A Little Less Loose

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-02 18:38:29:000

Two weeks ago I wrote a post with the title, The Federal Reserve is Not Tight . Today, I am modifying this a little bit by saying that the Federal Reserve is a Little Tight. Last week, we got the first bit of news that maybe the commercial banks were experiencing just a l… read more...

McCullough: Play Defense In This Market Environment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 10:57:25:000

IN SPORTS, THEY SAY DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS. We agree. In a Quad 4 market environment like the one we are inwhere growth and inflation are both slowing defense can save investors a good deal of money, according to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough . … read more...

McCullough: Play Defense In This Market Environment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 10:57:25:000

IN SPORTS, THEY SAY DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS. We agree. In a Quad 4 market environment like the one we are inwhere growth and inflation are both slowing defense can save investors a good deal of money, according to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough . … read more...

McCullough: Play Defense In This Market Environment

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-30 10:57:25:000

IN SPORTS, THEY SAY DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS. We agree. In a Quad 4 market environment like the one we are inwhere growth and inflation are both slowing defense can save investors a good deal of money, according to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough . … read more...

A Method To The Madness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-28 13:06:10:000

The Fed is not on your side anymore. That's a refrain that's bouncing around the echo chamber amid the worst month for U.S. equities ( SPY ) since 2009. It's kinda, sorta true, but there's so much nuance to this situation that we'd all probably be better off if we couched things in diffe… read more...

A Method To The Madness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-28 13:06:10:000

The Fed is not on your side anymore. That's a refrain that's bouncing around the echo chamber amid the worst month for U.S. equities ( SPY ) since 2009. It's kinda, sorta true, but there's so much nuance to this situation that we'd all probably be better off if we couched things in diffe… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - October 25, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-25 11:21:14:000

The BCI at 248.6 is below last week's downward revised level of 248.9, and it is below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 90.1. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 13.1, is below last weeks downward revised 13.7. Both BCIp and BCIg do not s… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - October 25, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-25 11:21:14:000

The BCI at 248.6 is below last week's downward revised level of 248.9, and it is below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 90.1. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 13.1, is below last weeks downward revised 13.7. Both BCIp and BCIg do not s… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - October 25, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-25 11:21:14:000

The BCI at 248.6 is below last week's downward revised level of 248.9, and it is below this business cycles peak as indicated by the BCIp at 90.1. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 13.1, is below last weeks downward revised 13.7. Both BCIp and BCIg do not s… read more...

Federal Reserve To Face More Complicated Times

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-25 11:13:48:000

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, has had a pretty smooth ride so far during his tenure. The easy times may be coming to an end. Just recently, I claimed that monetary policy was "not tight" and I gave my reasons for believing … read more...

Federal Reserve To Face More Complicated Times

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-25 11:13:48:000

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, has had a pretty smooth ride so far during his tenure. The easy times may be coming to an end. Just recently, I claimed that monetary policy was "not tight" and I gave my reasons for believing … read more...

Federal Reserve To Face More Complicated Times

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-25 11:13:48:000

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, has had a pretty smooth ride so far during his tenure. The easy times may be coming to an end. Just recently, I claimed that monetary policy was "not tight" and I gave my reasons for believing … read more...

What To Expect From Q3 GDP

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 16:21:24:000

What To Expect From Q3 GDP On Friday, the GDP report for the third quarter of 2018 will be released and is expected to show a growth rate for the economy of roughly 3.3%-4.0%. I want to outline some of the recent growth trends and go over what to expect from the composition of the report, be… read more...

What To Expect From Q3 GDP

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 16:21:24:000

What To Expect From Q3 GDP On Friday, the GDP report for the third quarter of 2018 will be released and is expected to show a growth rate for the economy of roughly 3.3%-4.0%. I want to outline some of the recent growth trends and go over what to expect from the composition of the report, be… read more...

What To Expect From Q3 GDP

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 16:21:24:000

What To Expect From Q3 GDP On Friday, the GDP report for the third quarter of 2018 will be released and is expected to show a growth rate for the economy of roughly 3.3%-4.0%. I want to outline some of the recent growth trends and go over what to expect from the composition of the report, be… read more...

Technology Is Changing And Our Thinking About The Economy And Investment Must Change

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 14:16:56:000

How should we react to the information that the bottom 10 percent of businesses is destroying as much value as the top 10 percent is creating? This is information provided by a report, to be released this Thursday by McKinsey Global Institute, but analyzed by Financial Times… read more...

Technology Is Changing And Our Thinking About The Economy And Investment Must Change

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 14:16:56:000

How should we react to the information that the bottom 10 percent of businesses is destroying as much value as the top 10 percent is creating? This is information provided by a report, to be released this Thursday by McKinsey Global Institute, but analyzed by Financial Times… read more...

Technology Is Changing And Our Thinking About The Economy And Investment Must Change

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 14:16:56:000

How should we react to the information that the bottom 10 percent of businesses is destroying as much value as the top 10 percent is creating? This is information provided by a report, to be released this Thursday by McKinsey Global Institute, but analyzed by Financial Times… read more...

Who Will By $1.7T Additional Treasury Securities This Year?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-21 18:52:03:000

Overview The government deficit for FY2018 came in at $779B , this was a new high since 2012. However, that is not the whole story as the government debt grew by $1,271B during last year. It is common that we see the debt grow by more than the deficit. The below chart illustrates this poi… read more...

The Thinking Behind Our Long Bond Call

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-18 11:06:31:000

Our Macro teams research process continues to indicate that Wall Street is on the wrong side of Treasury bonds. Despite the recent move higher in Treasury yields, were sticking with our contrarian call on long Long-Term Bonds. Youre going to want to watch the video … read more...

The Thinking Behind Our Long Bond Call

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-18 11:06:31:000

Our Macro teams research process continues to indicate that Wall Street is on the wrong side of Treasury bonds. Despite the recent move higher in Treasury yields, were sticking with our contrarian call on long Long-Term Bonds. Youre going to want to watch the video … read more...

The Thinking Behind Our Long Bond Call

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-18 11:06:31:000

Our Macro teams research process continues to indicate that Wall Street is on the wrong side of Treasury bonds. Despite the recent move higher in Treasury yields, were sticking with our contrarian call on long Long-Term Bonds. Youre going to want to watch the video … read more...

Federal Budget: Out Of Control

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-16 14:05:19:000

The Federal deficit rose to $779 billion in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2018. The Federal Deficit was $666 billion in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2017. The Federal Deficit is expected to be at least $1.0 trillion in the fiscal years ending September 30, 2019 and September… read more...

Federal Budget: Out Of Control

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-16 14:05:19:000

The Federal deficit rose to $779 billion in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2018. The Federal Deficit was $666 billion in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2017. The Federal Deficit is expected to be at least $1.0 trillion in the fiscal years ending September 30, 2019 and September… read more...

Let's Look At The U.S. Consumer

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 12:07:14:000

Let's Look At The U.S. Consumer The U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending, which comprises just about 70% of total economic growth. A healthy consumer is vital to the long-run trend growth rate of the United States. Over the past year, or a couple of quarters to be more… read more...

Let's Look At The U.S. Consumer

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 12:07:14:000

Let's Look At The U.S. Consumer The U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending, which comprises just about 70% of total economic growth. A healthy consumer is vital to the long-run trend growth rate of the United States. Over the past year, or a couple of quarters to be more… read more...

Trump's Tariffs Echo U.S. Trade Policy That Led To The Great Depression

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 14:00:18:000

We all wonder if the Trump administrations trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy. Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong U.S. economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable. We can ride ou… read more...

Trump's Tariffs Echo U.S. Trade Policy That Led To The Great Depression

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 14:00:18:000

We all wonder if the Trump administrations trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy. Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong U.S. economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable. We can ride ou… read more...

Trump's Tariffs Echo U.S. Trade Policy That Led To The Great Depression

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 14:00:18:000

We all wonder if the Trump administrations trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy. Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong U.S. economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable. We can ride ou… read more...

Are We On The Verge Of A Classic October Crash?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 10:28:58:000

Recent history has taught us to buy the dip. Even the eye-watering declines in February proved worth buying. On Wednesday the Dow Jones closed down 800 points and the S&P 500 dropped 3%. Its a big move for one day- but 3% is a natural pullback and many will be buying the dip. But t… read more...

Are We On The Verge Of A Classic October Crash?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 10:28:58:000

Recent history has taught us to buy the dip. Even the eye-watering declines in February proved worth buying. On Wednesday the Dow Jones closed down 800 points and the S&P 500 dropped 3%. Its a big move for one day- but 3% is a natural pullback and many will be buying the dip. But t… read more...

Are We On The Verge Of A Classic October Crash?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 10:28:58:000

Recent history has taught us to buy the dip. Even the eye-watering declines in February proved worth buying. On Wednesday the Dow Jones closed down 800 points and the S&P 500 dropped 3%. Its a big move for one day- but 3% is a natural pullback and many will be buying the dip. But t… read more...

The United States Of Red Ink

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-09 15:25:24:000

I'd be remiss if I didn't pen something for this platform about the IMF's decision to cut estimates for global growth this year and next. On Tuesday, at a press conference in Indonesia ahead the funds annual meeting, Maury Obstfeld, the IMFs Economic Counsellor and Director … read more...

The United States Of Red Ink

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-09 15:25:24:000

I'd be remiss if I didn't pen something for this platform about the IMF's decision to cut estimates for global growth this year and next. On Tuesday, at a press conference in Indonesia ahead the funds annual meeting, Maury Obstfeld, the IMFs Economic Counsellor and Director … read more...

Commercial Bank Lending: Like Pre-2008?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-09 11:19:01:000

Patrick Jenkins, writing in the Financial Times , warns that Banks Seem Doomed to Repeat Lending Mistakes of Past Crisis and spreads the cloud of doom by quoting the infamous statement of Chuck Prince, former chairman of Citigroup, As long as the music is playing, yo… read more...

Commercial Bank Lending: Like Pre-2008?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-09 11:19:01:000

Patrick Jenkins, writing in the Financial Times , warns that Banks Seem Doomed to Repeat Lending Mistakes of Past Crisis and spreads the cloud of doom by quoting the infamous statement of Chuck Prince, former chairman of Citigroup, As long as the music is playing, yo… read more...

It's Rough At The Margins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-07 12:04:00:000

A week ago, in " Remember The Trade Wars? This Isn't Complicated ", I brought you a common sense take on what across-the-board tariffs on Chinese imports would likely mean for corporate bottom lines. In that post, I cited some simple math from Goldman who, in a note out late last month, posi… read more...

It's Rough At The Margins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-07 12:04:00:000

A week ago, in " Remember The Trade Wars? This Isn't Complicated ", I brought you a common sense take on what across-the-board tariffs on Chinese imports would likely mean for corporate bottom lines. In that post, I cited some simple math from Goldman who, in a note out late last month, posi… read more...

Jobs Report, Tech Woes, And Curve Steepeners: Thoughts On Friday

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 17:11:15:000

As most readers are undoubtedly aware, Friday's jobs report was a big deal. Long story short, market participants were concerned that if September payrolls were accompanied by another hotter-than-expected average hourly earnings print, this week's acute Treasury ( TLT ) selloff could get wor… read more...

Jobs Report, Tech Woes, And Curve Steepeners: Thoughts On Friday

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 17:11:15:000

As most readers are undoubtedly aware, Friday's jobs report was a big deal. Long story short, market participants were concerned that if September payrolls were accompanied by another hotter-than-expected average hourly earnings print, this week's acute Treasury ( TLT ) selloff could get wor… read more...

Still Bullish On Bonds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 10:38:04:000

The bond market delivered a shock to the system this week . After quietly ending the trading day at 3.05% on Tuesday, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield exploded to the upside on Wednesday by 10 basis points to close at 3.15%. The benchmark Treasury yield reached as high as 3.21% early Thursday … read more...

Still Bullish On Bonds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 10:38:04:000

The bond market delivered a shock to the system this week . After quietly ending the trading day at 3.05% on Tuesday, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield exploded to the upside on Wednesday by 10 basis points to close at 3.15%. The benchmark Treasury yield reached as high as 3.21% early Thursday … read more...

Oh, What A Difference A Day Makes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-04 16:56:15:000

Oh what a difference a day makes. Regardless of how things ultimately pan out (i.e., irrespective of whether stocks end up moving higher going forward), Thursday marked a stark contrast with Wednesday in terms of how equities ( SPY ) were inclined to view rising bond yields. Wednesday was… read more...

It's The Oil, Stupid

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-02 10:47:56:000

Late last month, I wrote something for you folks called " The Bond Selloff That Nobody Noticed ", which was a kind of sweeping effort to document the possible causes behind a Treasury ( TLT ) selloff that appeared to be gathering momentum. That post was written after a week that saw the "con… read more...

It's The Oil, Stupid

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-02 10:47:56:000

Late last month, I wrote something for you folks called " The Bond Selloff That Nobody Noticed ", which was a kind of sweeping effort to document the possible causes behind a Treasury ( TLT ) selloff that appeared to be gathering momentum. That post was written after a week that saw the "con… read more...

Does the U.S. have a spending problem?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-02 03:58:28:000

The U.S. federal debt increased by $1.27T in fiscal 2018 - which runs from October 1 through September 30 - according to data released by the Treasury. More news on: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF, iShares TIPS Bond ETF, News on ETFs, R… read more...

Does the U.S. have a spending problem?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-02 03:58:28:000

The U.S. federal debt increased by $1.27T in fiscal 2018 - which runs from October 1 through September 30 - according to data released by the Treasury. More news on: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF, iShares TIPS Bond ETF, News on ETFs, R… read more...

Trump signs funding bill that averts government shutdown before midterms

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 15:51:52:000

President Trump signs an $853B funding bill on Friday, avoiding a partial government shutdown before the midterm elections and delaying any showdown over paying for a border wall until at least December. More news on: iShares MBS ETF, BlackRock Income Trust, Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Secu… read more...

Trump signs funding bill that averts government shutdown before midterms

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 15:51:52:000

President Trump signs an $853B funding bill on Friday, avoiding a partial government shutdown before the midterm elections and delaying any showdown over paying for a border wall until at least December. More news on: iShares MBS ETF, BlackRock Income Trust, Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Secu… read more...

Trump signs funding bill that averts government shutdown before midterms

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 15:51:52:000

President Trump signs an $853B funding bill on Friday, avoiding a partial government shutdown before the midterm elections and delaying any showdown over paying for a border wall until at least December. More news on: iShares MBS ETF, BlackRock Income Trust, Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Secu… read more...

Trump signs funding bill that averts government shutdown before midterms

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 15:51:52:000

President Trump signs an $853B funding bill on Friday, avoiding a partial government shutdown before the midterm elections and delaying any showdown over paying for a border wall until at least December. More news on: iShares MBS ETF, BlackRock Income Trust, Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Secu… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch:  One Year Of Reduction Efforts To Securities Portfolio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 11:19:52:000

Well, it has been one year since the Federal Reserve began to reduce the size of its securities portfolio. I know, the effort was supposed to begin at the start of the third quarter, October 1, 2017, but the last release of the Federal Reserves balance sheet, the H.4.1 release titled… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch:  One Year Of Reduction Efforts To Securities Portfolio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 11:19:52:000

Well, it has been one year since the Federal Reserve began to reduce the size of its securities portfolio. I know, the effort was supposed to begin at the start of the third quarter, October 1, 2017, but the last release of the Federal Reserves balance sheet, the H.4.1 release titled… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch:  One Year Of Reduction Efforts To Securities Portfolio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 11:19:52:000

Well, it has been one year since the Federal Reserve began to reduce the size of its securities portfolio. I know, the effort was supposed to begin at the start of the third quarter, October 1, 2017, but the last release of the Federal Reserves balance sheet, the H.4.1 release titled… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch:  One Year Of Reduction Efforts To Securities Portfolio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-28 11:19:52:000

Well, it has been one year since the Federal Reserve began to reduce the size of its securities portfolio. I know, the effort was supposed to begin at the start of the third quarter, October 1, 2017, but the last release of the Federal Reserves balance sheet, the H.4.1 release titled… read more...

How Robust Is Economic Growth? The Weakness In The Housing Sector

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 18:23:10:000

The housing sector has not really played a very big role in the current economic recovery. This is very atypical of past economic recoveries, but is not inconsistent with the strategy laid out by the Bernanke-led Federal Reserve trying to get away from the Great Recession and create a sustai… read more...

Jerome Powell's Dog & Pony Show Press Conference (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 17:14:08:000

On Wednesday Fed chair Jerome Powell held a press conference in which he, in my opinion, ducked (in every way imaginable) saying that the Fed was basing its decision making on the stock market. This is, of course, exactly what I believe the Fed is doing. It's ridiculous, and the double-talk … read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - September 27, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 11:24:33:000

The BCI at 251.1 is above last week's downward revised level of 249.5, and formed a new high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.4 is above last weeks downward revised 14.1. Both BCIp and BCIg do not signaling a … read more...

Marko Kolanovic And The De-Dollarization Thesis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 10:46:06:000

I've spilled gallons of digital ink both in these pages and elsewhere documenting the evolution of the " convergence trade " narrative. The idea is simply that by the time August rolled around, the disparity between the performance of U.S. stocks ( SPY ) and the rest of the world was, on so… read more...

It's Time For Investors To Take President Trump Seriously On Trade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 18:36:15:000

On Tuesday, a day after tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods took effect, Donald Trump addressed the U.N. General Assembly and suffice to say his position on trade is unchanged. Predictably, the President criticized China's trade practices and suggested Beijing is undermin… read more...

It's Time For Investors To Take President Trump Seriously On Trade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 18:36:15:000

On Tuesday, a day after tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods took effect, Donald Trump addressed the U.N. General Assembly and suffice to say his position on trade is unchanged. Predictably, the President criticized China's trade practices and suggested Beijing is undermin… read more...

E.T. Phone Home: How Much More Offshore Cash Will Be Repatriated?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-24 16:42:08:000

In what I'm sure will be a relief for some readers given my penchant for penning lengthy, intellectually challenging posts on seemingly esoteric topics, this piece will be brief and relatively straightforward. It's no secret that buybacks have helped buoy the U.S. equity market in 2018. E… read more...

E.T. Phone Home: How Much More Offshore Cash Will Be Repatriated?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-24 16:42:08:000

In what I'm sure will be a relief for some readers given my penchant for penning lengthy, intellectually challenging posts on seemingly esoteric topics, this piece will be brief and relatively straightforward. It's no secret that buybacks have helped buoy the U.S. equity market in 2018. E… read more...

E.T. Phone Home: How Much More Offshore Cash Will Be Repatriated?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-24 16:42:08:000

In what I'm sure will be a relief for some readers given my penchant for penning lengthy, intellectually challenging posts on seemingly esoteric topics, this piece will be brief and relatively straightforward. It's no secret that buybacks have helped buoy the U.S. equity market in 2018. E… read more...

Where Do We Go From Here?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-23 18:49:35:000

The media is misinforming you about the real magnitude and impact of tariffs. For instance, a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods is a $20 billion surcharge in a U.S economy that is nearly $20 trillion dollars. Just think that the estimated damage from Hurricane Florence is between $38… read more...

No Interest Rate Depression Is Coming To The United States

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-20 18:48:57:000

John M. Mason reported here on Seeking Alpha that Martin Feldstein predicts a depression to rival the Great Depression of the 1930s if the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury spikes (to an unnamed number). Mr. Mason discusses what might happen to the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury… read more...

No Interest Rate Depression Is Coming To The United States

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-20 18:48:57:000

John M. Mason reported here on Seeking Alpha that Martin Feldstein predicts a depression to rival the Great Depression of the 1930s if the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury spikes (to an unnamed number). Mr. Mason discusses what might happen to the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury… read more...

No Interest Rate Depression Is Coming To The United States

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-20 18:48:57:000

John M. Mason reported here on Seeking Alpha that Martin Feldstein predicts a depression to rival the Great Depression of the 1930s if the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury spikes (to an unnamed number). Mr. Mason discusses what might happen to the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury… read more...

We've Got Really Bad News For Bond Bears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 13:27:00:000

Bond bears beware - the data is out to get you. Last weeks inflation reports were lower than Wall Street expected. If were right on inflation, this could be the beginning of a very bad trend for investors betting on rising interest rates. Our subscribers are prepared. … read more...

We've Got Really Bad News For Bond Bears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 13:27:00:000

Bond bears beware - the data is out to get you. Last weeks inflation reports were lower than Wall Street expected. If were right on inflation, this could be the beginning of a very bad trend for investors betting on rising interest rates. Our subscribers are prepared. … read more...

We've Got Really Bad News For Bond Bears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 13:27:00:000

Bond bears beware - the data is out to get you. Last weeks inflation reports were lower than Wall Street expected. If were right on inflation, this could be the beginning of a very bad trend for investors betting on rising interest rates. Our subscribers are prepared. … read more...

The Rising Dilemma: U.S. Economic Strength Versus Emerging Market Weakness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-11 17:56:35:000

John Authers presents it very clearly in the Smart Money column of the Financial Times: Its plain to see that U.S. labor market tightness remains a crucial issue. If the jobs market is tight enough to give employees the upper hand in wage negotiations an… read more...

The Rising Dilemma: U.S. Economic Strength Versus Emerging Market Weakness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-11 17:56:35:000

John Authers presents it very clearly in the Smart Money column of the Financial Times: Its plain to see that U.S. labor market tightness remains a crucial issue. If the jobs market is tight enough to give employees the upper hand in wage negotiations an… read more...

The Rising Dilemma: U.S. Economic Strength Versus Emerging Market Weakness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-11 17:56:35:000

John Authers presents it very clearly in the Smart Money column of the Financial Times: Its plain to see that U.S. labor market tightness remains a crucial issue. If the jobs market is tight enough to give employees the upper hand in wage negotiations an… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: When Will The Fed Stop It's Portfolio Reduction?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-09 11:21:49:000

The Federal Reserves effort to reduce the size of its securities portfolio is almost a year old. The program was started at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2017. In my mind the Fed has done a fantastic job, and without selling any securities, just working with the maturing par… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: When Will The Fed Stop It's Portfolio Reduction?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-09 11:21:49:000

The Federal Reserves effort to reduce the size of its securities portfolio is almost a year old. The program was started at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2017. In my mind the Fed has done a fantastic job, and without selling any securities, just working with the maturing par… read more...

The State Of The United States Economy: Good, But Not Understood

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-06 18:47:01:000

On Thursday, the US Labor Department announced that the number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted level of 203,000. This is the lowest level this number has fallen to since 1969! A less volatile measure of this series is the four-we… read more...

The State Of The United States Economy: Good, But Not Understood

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-06 18:47:01:000

On Thursday, the US Labor Department announced that the number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted level of 203,000. This is the lowest level this number has fallen to since 1969! A less volatile measure of this series is the four-we… read more...

The State Of The United States Economy: Good, But Not Understood

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-06 18:47:01:000

On Thursday, the US Labor Department announced that the number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted level of 203,000. This is the lowest level this number has fallen to since 1969! A less volatile measure of this series is the four-we… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: We Have Had 9 Years To 'Prepare For The Crash,' So Are We There Yet?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-03 08:00:00:000

This past week, I read an article entitled When Will S&P 500 Valuations Matter Again?, written by Gary Gordon. And, in his first bullet point, he said truth be told, valuations have not mattered for the public markets for three-and-a-half years. He then… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: We Have Had 9 Years To 'Prepare For The Crash,' So Are We There Yet?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-03 08:00:00:000

This past week, I read an article entitled When Will S&P 500 Valuations Matter Again?, written by Gary Gordon. And, in his first bullet point, he said truth be told, valuations have not mattered for the public markets for three-and-a-half years. He then… read more...

Sentiment Speaks: We Have Had 9 Years To 'Prepare For The Crash,' So Are We There Yet?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-03 08:00:00:000

This past week, I read an article entitled When Will S&P 500 Valuations Matter Again?, written by Gary Gordon. And, in his first bullet point, he said truth be told, valuations have not mattered for the public markets for three-and-a-half years. He then… read more...

Here Are Top Predictions From Camp Kotok

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 15:42:06:000

Im back from Camp Kotok . As always, it was both rejuvenating and enlightening. This year, I quickly sensed a more upbeat mood. There were not that many that were wildly bullish, but most were positive or at least neutral. There werent nearly as many bears as I expected. &#x… read more...

Here Are Top Predictions From Camp Kotok

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 15:42:06:000

Im back from Camp Kotok . As always, it was both rejuvenating and enlightening. This year, I quickly sensed a more upbeat mood. There were not that many that were wildly bullish, but most were positive or at least neutral. There werent nearly as many bears as I expected. &#x… read more...

Here Are Top Predictions From Camp Kotok

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 15:42:06:000

Im back from Camp Kotok . As always, it was both rejuvenating and enlightening. This year, I quickly sensed a more upbeat mood. There were not that many that were wildly bullish, but most were positive or at least neutral. There werent nearly as many bears as I expected. &#x… read more...

The Perplexing Question Of What Drives Inflation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 11:20:07:000

Introduction By now, most people know the Federal Reserve is arguably nearing its goal to achieve stable inflation at roughly 2% or so. This is a level that may indicate healthy demand sufficient to absorb available supply thus stimulating even more hiring and investment. With too… read more...

The Perplexing Question Of What Drives Inflation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 11:20:07:000

Introduction By now, most people know the Federal Reserve is arguably nearing its goal to achieve stable inflation at roughly 2% or so. This is a level that may indicate healthy demand sufficient to absorb available supply thus stimulating even more hiring and investment. With too… read more...

McCullough: What To Do When The Yield Curve Inverts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 11:03:28:000

Did someone say slowdown? An important historical precedent is emerging which investors should keep a close eye onit may be another signal that the U.S. is in the late stages of its current economic cycle. The yield spread between the UST 10YR and 2YR is getting tighter. T… read more...

McCullough: What To Do When The Yield Curve Inverts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 11:03:28:000

Did someone say slowdown? An important historical precedent is emerging which investors should keep a close eye onit may be another signal that the U.S. is in the late stages of its current economic cycle. The yield spread between the UST 10YR and 2YR is getting tighter. T… read more...

Paradox: U.S. Stocks Need A Break From 'America First'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 11:28:31:000

In " Thoughts On Friday's Dollar Coup ", I offered a sweeping overview of the current environment for emerging market assets on the way to explaining why it's so critical that the dollar ( UUP ) take an extended breather. The first line of that post reads as follows: If you're long risk a… read more...

Paradox: U.S. Stocks Need A Break From 'America First'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 11:28:31:000

In " Thoughts On Friday's Dollar Coup ", I offered a sweeping overview of the current environment for emerging market assets on the way to explaining why it's so critical that the dollar ( UUP ) take an extended breather. The first line of that post reads as follows: If you're long risk a… read more...

Thoughts On Friday's Dollar Coup

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-24 15:27:39:000

On Wednesday, I suggested that if you're long risk assets of any kind, you're implicitly short the dollar ( UUP ). That's not exactly some kind of revelation. That is, it's no secret that the proximate cause of the emerging market (hereafter "EM") unwind is hawkishness from the Fed and th… read more...

Thoughts On Friday's Dollar Coup

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-24 15:27:39:000

On Wednesday, I suggested that if you're long risk assets of any kind, you're implicitly short the dollar ( UUP ). That's not exactly some kind of revelation. That is, it's no secret that the proximate cause of the emerging market (hereafter "EM") unwind is hawkishness from the Fed and th… read more...

FOMC's Powell due to make Jackson Hole speech

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-24 04:40:15:000

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is due to give a speech about monetary policy in a changing economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. More news on: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury… read more...

FOMC's Powell due to make Jackson Hole speech

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-24 04:40:15:000

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is due to give a speech about monetary policy in a changing economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. More news on: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury… read more...

Trump, Manafort, Cohen, And Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-22 11:40:55:000

Political risk suddenly surfaced in the U.S. stock market on Tuesday . It was one-two punch of breaking headline news. First, the Presidents former personal lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to criminal charges and directly implicated the president in payments made for the p… read more...

Trump, Manafort, Cohen, And Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-22 11:40:55:000

Political risk suddenly surfaced in the U.S. stock market on Tuesday . It was one-two punch of breaking headline news. First, the Presidents former personal lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to criminal charges and directly implicated the president in payments made for the p… read more...

Where Will The EUR/USD Head For Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 16:08:43:000

Safe heaven currencies benefited at the beginning of last week as the Turkish crisis and sharp lira depreciation increased market risk aversion. The EUR/USD exchange rate fell to its lowest level in more than a year. Chart 1: EUR/USD movements Source: Reuters However, the pair is trading… read more...

Another Day, Another Dollar

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-20 20:09:33:000

This was already set to be a pivotal week when it comes to getting a read on how Jerome Powell's Fed is likely to proceed in the face of still buoyant U.S. economic data and evidence of domestic price pressures on the one hand, and the drawdown in emerging market (hereafter "EM") assets and on… read more...

McCullough: Get Inflation Right, You Get The Bond Market Right

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 17:12:08:000

Have exposure to the $40 trillion swirling around in the U.S. bond market? We thought so. Heres a simple investing relationship to help you risk manage your bond exposure: Accurately forecast the rate-of-change in U.S. inflation, and youll be able to more easily predict t… read more...

McCullough: Get Inflation Right, You Get The Bond Market Right

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 17:12:08:000

Have exposure to the $40 trillion swirling around in the U.S. bond market? We thought so. Heres a simple investing relationship to help you risk manage your bond exposure: Accurately forecast the rate-of-change in U.S. inflation, and youll be able to more easily predict t… read more...

McCullough: Get Inflation Right, You Get The Bond Market Right

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 17:12:08:000

Have exposure to the $40 trillion swirling around in the U.S. bond market? We thought so. Heres a simple investing relationship to help you risk manage your bond exposure: Accurately forecast the rate-of-change in U.S. inflation, and youll be able to more easily predict t… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - August 9, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-09 10:41:10:000

The BCI at 246.5 is marginally below last week's level, indicated by the BCIp of 99.5. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.5 is below last week's 14.8. Both BCIp and BCIg do not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, or BCIg needs to drop to below zero) Fi… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - August 9, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-09 10:41:10:000

The BCI at 246.5 is marginally below last week's level, indicated by the BCIp of 99.5. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.5 is below last week's 14.8. Both BCIp and BCIg do not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, or BCIg needs to drop to below zero) Fi… read more...

No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - August 9, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-09 10:41:10:000

The BCI at 246.5 is marginally below last week's level, indicated by the BCIp of 99.5. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.5 is below last week's 14.8. Both BCIp and BCIg do not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, or BCIg needs to drop to below zero) Fi… read more...

The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - August 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 15:18:28:000

Note: The previous monthly update can be seen in the July 5 article titled " The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - July 2018 . " There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I dont agree with the methodologies employ… read more...

The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - August 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 15:18:28:000

Note: The previous monthly update can be seen in the July 5 article titled " The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - July 2018 . " There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I dont agree with the methodologies employ… read more...

Peter Schiff: Next Crisis Will Be An 'Order Of Magnitude' Larger Than 2008 (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-06 17:58:58:000

Peter Schiff is Chairman of SchiffGold, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, Inc, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accur… read more...

McCullough: The #1 Thing Institutional Investors Are Asking Me Right Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-06 17:26:47:000

The most popular question Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough has been asked in meetings with institutional investors recently? What is the number one thing that changes credit spreads? The answer is very simple: The cycle. When we start going towards Quad 4 (i.e. ye… read more...

Kuroda's 'Do Whatever It Takes' Pledge Is Less Credible Than Draghi's

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-05 19:25:36:000

The developed central banks have entered a delicate phase in their Prisoners Dilemma . All have faced the classic commitment problem , of their inability to achieve their goals of economic growth and above target inflation with unconventional monetary policy, in varying degrees. Th… read more...

July Jobs, Other Data, Presages Slower Growth. And Then There's Iran.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-05 16:15:21:000

NEW YORK (August 3, 2018) - Standing alone, the July jobs report was disappointing in every respect-:Only 157,000 new jobs were created versus the 193,000 that were forecast. That's markedly down from Junes revised jobs count of 248,000, and also down from the 190,000 new jobs that were cr… read more...

Webcast: Our Market 'Road Map' Has Changed (Demonstrably)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 15:56:57:000

Are you prepared for U.S. #GrowthSlowing ? Thats our call. Were forecasting a U.S. economic slowdown in the back half of 2018. Its time to proactively prepare your portfolio or remain extremely vulnerable. In case you missed it, below is a key excerpt transcribed… read more...

Webcast: Our Market 'Road Map' Has Changed (Demonstrably)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 15:56:57:000

Are you prepared for U.S. #GrowthSlowing ? Thats our call. Were forecasting a U.S. economic slowdown in the back half of 2018. Its time to proactively prepare your portfolio or remain extremely vulnerable. In case you missed it, below is a key excerpt transcribed… read more...

Will The Fed's Tightening Trigger Another Crisis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-29 12:32:01:000

The recent currency and debt crises in Argentina and Turkey raise questions about the condition of the global economy in general and the emerging countries in particular. Are they merely isolated events without broader implications or are they canary in the emerging market mine? This questio… read more...

Will The Fed's Tightening Trigger Another Crisis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-29 12:32:01:000

The recent currency and debt crises in Argentina and Turkey raise questions about the condition of the global economy in general and the emerging countries in particular. Are they merely isolated events without broader implications or are they canary in the emerging market mine? This questio… read more...

Will The Fed's Tightening Trigger Another Crisis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-29 12:32:01:000

The recent currency and debt crises in Argentina and Turkey raise questions about the condition of the global economy in general and the emerging countries in particular. Are they merely isolated events without broader implications or are they canary in the emerging market mine? This questio… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth In Second Quarter: 2.8 Percent, Year-Over-Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-27 15:42:30:000

Yes, economic growth did tend to pick up in the second quarter of 2018. Year-over-year, the rate of growth, in its initial estimate, came in at 2.8 percent, a somewhat lower than many economists had earlier expected. Focus tends to be placed on the annualized quarterly rate o… read more...

U.S. Economic Growth In Second Quarter: 2.8 Percent, Year-Over-Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-27 15:42:30:000

Yes, economic growth did tend to pick up in the second quarter of 2018. Year-over-year, the rate of growth, in its initial estimate, came in at 2.8 percent, a somewhat lower than many economists had earlier expected. Focus tends to be placed on the annualized quarterly rate o… read more...

Out-Of-Equilibrium Economics: The Federal Budget

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-26 17:32:02:000

There it is on the front page of the New York Times: How the Trump Tax Cut Is Helping to Push the Federal Deficit to $1 Trillion . Jim Tankersley writes: The amount of corporate taxes collected by the federal government has plunged to historically low levels in … read more...

Likely Scenario: Yield Curve Inversion In 2018, Recession In 2019.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-22 17:29:06:000

Everybody is talking about the flattening yield curve. The inversion of the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year treasury yields has proved to be a fairly accurate predictor of recession in the past decades. This time around the difference is that everybody is talking about it. I have… read more...

Likely Scenario: Yield Curve Inversion In 2018, Recession In 2019.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-22 17:29:06:000

Everybody is talking about the flattening yield curve. The inversion of the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year treasury yields has proved to be a fairly accurate predictor of recession in the past decades. This time around the difference is that everybody is talking about it. I have… read more...

Likely Scenario: Yield Curve Inversion In 2018, Recession In 2019.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-22 17:29:06:000

Everybody is talking about the flattening yield curve. The inversion of the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year treasury yields has proved to be a fairly accurate predictor of recession in the past decades. This time around the difference is that everybody is talking about it. I have… read more...

And Now, Commence The Currency War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-20 18:40:50:000

On Thursday evening, I went to great lengths to explain the market significance of Donald Trump's landmark interview with CNBC's Joe Kernen , in which the President criticized Fed policy. In that linked post, I outlined the three key reasons why Trump is concerned about the prospect of f… read more...

And Now, Commence The Currency War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-20 18:40:50:000

On Thursday evening, I went to great lengths to explain the market significance of Donald Trump's landmark interview with CNBC's Joe Kernen , in which the President criticized Fed policy. In that linked post, I outlined the three key reasons why Trump is concerned about the prospect of f… read more...

Why Trade Wars With China Don't Matter To The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-20 11:58:38:000

We havent talked much about the budding trade war between the US and, well, pretty much everybody else Theres a simple reason for this, it hasnt been a primary driver of price action of the S&P (SPY) and its unlikely to beco… read more...

Why Trade Wars With China Don't Matter To The Stock Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-20 11:58:38:000

We havent talked much about the budding trade war between the US and, well, pretty much everybody else Theres a simple reason for this, it hasnt been a primary driver of price action of the S&P (SPY) and its unlikely to beco… read more...

Who's Left?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-15 14:06:41:000

I don't have children, but if I did, I imagine I'd love them all equally, but like some of them more than others. In that respect, my posts are like my hypothetical kids - I love them all, but I like some more than the rest. That preference shows up in the number of times I refer bac… read more...

Who's Left?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-15 14:06:41:000

I don't have children, but if I did, I imagine I'd love them all equally, but like some of them more than others. In that respect, my posts are like my hypothetical kids - I love them all, but I like some more than the rest. That preference shows up in the number of times I refer bac… read more...

Who's Left?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-15 14:06:41:000

I don't have children, but if I did, I imagine I'd love them all equally, but like some of them more than others. In that respect, my posts are like my hypothetical kids - I love them all, but I like some more than the rest. That preference shows up in the number of times I refer bac… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of July 9-13

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 18:01:47:000

The point of the Turning Points Newsletter is to analyze the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economy is slipping into a recession, or, in the terminology of the newsletter, if we're at an economic "turning point. Leading Indicators The to… read more...

Turning Points For The Week Of July 9-13

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-13 18:01:47:000

The point of the Turning Points Newsletter is to analyze the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economy is slipping into a recession, or, in the terminology of the newsletter, if we're at an economic "turning point. Leading Indicators The to… read more...

It Is Not Easy For The U.S. To Win A Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-12 15:43:46:000

Trade walls going up do not assure a U.S. victory. Indeed, they seem to assure a loss for U.S. corporations and stocks. According to the U.S. President, Donald Trump, who is the man driving the current U.S. trade policy, winning a trade war (against China) is easy. This notion is based on … read more...

It Is Not Easy For The U.S. To Win A Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-12 15:43:46:000

Trade walls going up do not assure a U.S. victory. Indeed, they seem to assure a loss for U.S. corporations and stocks. According to the U.S. President, Donald Trump, who is the man driving the current U.S. trade policy, winning a trade war (against China) is easy. This notion is based on … read more...

It Is Not Easy For The U.S. To Win A Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-12 15:43:46:000

Trade walls going up do not assure a U.S. victory. Indeed, they seem to assure a loss for U.S. corporations and stocks. According to the U.S. President, Donald Trump, who is the man driving the current U.S. trade policy, winning a trade war (against China) is easy. This notion is based on … read more...

Whoa! Economic Ramifications Of Trump's Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-10 15:54:14:000

The ultimate economic impact of President Trumps trade tariffs remains to be seen. Still, brand-new trade data provides some interesting results, particularly among tariff-sensitive industries. As Hedgeye Macro analyst Christian Drake highlights on a recent episode of The… read more...

Whoa! Economic Ramifications Of Trump's Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-10 15:54:14:000

The ultimate economic impact of President Trumps trade tariffs remains to be seen. Still, brand-new trade data provides some interesting results, particularly among tariff-sensitive industries. As Hedgeye Macro analyst Christian Drake highlights on a recent episode of The… read more...

6 Things To Know About This Week's CBO Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-01 17:33:14:000

Here are six things you might like to know about the Congressional Budget Offices 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook , which was released on Tuesday. 1. The CBOs baseline scenario shows federal debt held by the public rocketing upward at a trajectory not seen since 2009, but t… read more...

6 Things To Know About This Week's CBO Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-01 17:33:14:000

Here are six things you might like to know about the Congressional Budget Offices 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook , which was released on Tuesday. 1. The CBOs baseline scenario shows federal debt held by the public rocketing upward at a trajectory not seen since 2009, but t… read more...

6 Things To Know About This Week's CBO Report

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-01 17:33:14:000

Here are six things you might like to know about the Congressional Budget Offices 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook , which was released on Tuesday. 1. The CBOs baseline scenario shows federal debt held by the public rocketing upward at a trajectory not seen since 2009, but t… read more...

The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn In 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 18:19:30:000

I realize its getting late to discuss the June 1213 FOMC meeting , but I think the Feds biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. To confirm the relevance of what I thought I heard during the post-meeting press conference , I spent some time l… read more...

The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn In 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 18:19:30:000

I realize its getting late to discuss the June 1213 FOMC meeting , but I think the Feds biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. To confirm the relevance of what I thought I heard during the post-meeting press conference , I spent some time l… read more...

The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn In 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 18:19:30:000

I realize its getting late to discuss the June 1213 FOMC meeting , but I think the Feds biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. To confirm the relevance of what I thought I heard during the post-meeting press conference , I spent some time l… read more...

History Provides Clues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 14:03:46:000

"…people who habitually purchase common stocks at more than about 16 times their average earnings are likely to lose considerable money in the long run." -Graham & Dodd, Securities Analysis Of Markets & Manias It is a well know fact that most economic expansions do n... read more...

History Provides Clues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 14:03:46:000

"…people who habitually purchase common stocks at more than about 16 times their average earnings are likely to lose considerable money in the long run." -Graham & Dodd, Securities Analysis Of Markets & Manias It is a well know fact that most economic expansions do n... read more...

History Provides Clues

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 14:03:46:000

"…people who habitually purchase common stocks at more than about 16 times their average earnings are likely to lose considerable money in the long run." -Graham & Dodd, Securities Analysis Of Markets & Manias It is a well know fact that most economic expansions do n... read more...

Fed Now Hinting At Four Potential Rate Hikes In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-19 17:08:31:000

As expected, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates for the second time this year, raising the Federal Funds Target rate on June 13, 2018 by 25 Basis Points (i.e. 0.25%). This leaves the Fed Funds Target Rate in a range of 1.75% 2.00%. Their statement following the rate hike ann… read more...

Fed Now Hinting At Four Potential Rate Hikes In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-19 17:08:31:000

As expected, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates for the second time this year, raising the Federal Funds Target rate on June 13, 2018 by 25 Basis Points (i.e. 0.25%). This leaves the Fed Funds Target Rate in a range of 1.75% 2.00%. Their statement following the rate hike ann… read more...

Fed Now Hinting At Four Potential Rate Hikes In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-19 17:08:31:000

As expected, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates for the second time this year, raising the Federal Funds Target rate on June 13, 2018 by 25 Basis Points (i.e. 0.25%). This leaves the Fed Funds Target Rate in a range of 1.75% 2.00%. Their statement following the rate hike ann… read more...

Federal Reserve Watch: Commercial Banks Poised To Reward Shareholders

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-18 18:42:27:000

Larger US banks are poised to hand over more capital to investors than they are generating from their businesses for the first time since the 2008 crisis. Shareholders in 22 of the countrys biggest listed banks are in line for a record haul of almost $… read more...

Knowing When The Business Cycle Peaks May Be As Important As Knowing When The Yield Curve Inverts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-15 16:53:05:000

A growing economy sets up its own demise The laws of demand and supply make an expanding economy its own worst enemy. At the micro level, economic growth fuels demand for land, capital, labor, commodities, energy, and transportation. Yet, a finite supply cant keep up with incessant d… read more...

Knowing When The Business Cycle Peaks May Be As Important As Knowing When The Yield Curve Inverts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-15 16:53:05:000

A growing economy sets up its own demise The laws of demand and supply make an expanding economy its own worst enemy. At the micro level, economic growth fuels demand for land, capital, labor, commodities, energy, and transportation. Yet, a finite supply cant keep up with incessant d… read more...

Knowing When The Business Cycle Peaks May Be As Important As Knowing When The Yield Curve Inverts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-15 16:53:05:000

A growing economy sets up its own demise The laws of demand and supply make an expanding economy its own worst enemy. At the micro level, economic growth fuels demand for land, capital, labor, commodities, energy, and transportation. Yet, a finite supply cant keep up with incessant d… read more...

Knowing When The Business Cycle Peaks May Be As Important As Knowing When The Yield Curve Inverts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-15 16:53:05:000

A growing economy sets up its own demise The laws of demand and supply make an expanding economy its own worst enemy. At the micro level, economic growth fuels demand for land, capital, labor, commodities, energy, and transportation. Yet, a finite supply cant keep up with incessant d… read more...

McCullough: Consumer Confidence Breakout? Don't Count On It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 12:16:19:000

The data suggests that the peak is in for U.S. consumer confidence. So where do we go from here? Consumer confidence is currently at levels not seen since the Dot Com bubble days of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Consumer confidence has historically peaked toward the end… read more...

McCullough: Consumer Confidence Breakout? Don't Count On It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 12:16:19:000

The data suggests that the peak is in for U.S. consumer confidence. So where do we go from here? Consumer confidence is currently at levels not seen since the Dot Com bubble days of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Consumer confidence has historically peaked toward the end… read more...

McCullough: Consumer Confidence Breakout? Don't Count On It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 12:16:19:000

The data suggests that the peak is in for U.S. consumer confidence. So where do we go from here? Consumer confidence is currently at levels not seen since the Dot Com bubble days of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Consumer confidence has historically peaked toward the end… read more...

McCullough: 'Europe Slowing' Is Just Getting Started

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 12:05:48:000

European stocks bounced recently and the central planners and Old Wall media took a victory lap, declaring the threat of #EuropeSlowing was over. Dont get sucked in. According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough , theres plenty of data to support that the problems in Eu… read more...

McCullough: 'Europe Slowing' Is Just Getting Started

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 12:05:48:000

European stocks bounced recently and the central planners and Old Wall media took a victory lap, declaring the threat of #EuropeSlowing was over. Dont get sucked in. According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough , theres plenty of data to support that the problems in Eu… read more...

McCullough: 'Europe Slowing' Is Just Getting Started

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 12:05:48:000

European stocks bounced recently and the central planners and Old Wall media took a victory lap, declaring the threat of #EuropeSlowing was over. Dont get sucked in. According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough , theres plenty of data to support that the problems in Eu… read more...

Critical Mass: When Will Investors Care About The Dollar Shortage Crisis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-10 19:08:34:000

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Helicopter Bernanke just threw cold water on the mainstream growth narrative. He said the economy by 2020 is going to go right over the cliff . Although rarely I do agree with Helicopter Ben about something. … read more...

What Can We Expect Over The Next Decade?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-10 18:27:29:000

No one knows what returns we will generate from stocks over the next decade or more. Anything can happen from outrageous positive returns to an elongated recession that leads to negative returns. We simply don't know. That said, we do know the present and the current earnings yields and potent… read more...

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 18:15:25:000

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes *These ideas were discussed in more detail with members of EPB Macro Research. Join Today For Free . * As bonds ( EDV ) sold off over the past several days, the worries of a 'flattening yield curve' dissipated as the curve steepened by mos… read more...

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 18:15:25:000

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes *These ideas were discussed in more detail with members of EPB Macro Research. Join Today For Free . * As bonds ( EDV ) sold off over the past several days, the worries of a 'flattening yield curve' dissipated as the curve steepened by mos… read more...

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 18:15:25:000

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes *These ideas were discussed in more detail with members of EPB Macro Research. Join Today For Free . * As bonds ( EDV ) sold off over the past several days, the worries of a 'flattening yield curve' dissipated as the curve steepened by mos… read more...

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 18:15:25:000

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes *These ideas were discussed in more detail with members of EPB Macro Research. Join Today For Free . * As bonds ( EDV ) sold off over the past several days, the worries of a 'flattening yield curve' dissipated as the curve steepened by mos… read more...

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 18:15:25:000

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes *These ideas were discussed in more detail with members of EPB Macro Research. Join Today For Free . * As bonds ( EDV ) sold off over the past several days, the worries of a 'flattening yield curve' dissipated as the curve steepened by mos… read more...

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 18:15:25:000

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes *These ideas were discussed in more detail with members of EPB Macro Research. Join Today For Free . * As bonds ( EDV ) sold off over the past several days, the worries of a 'flattening yield curve' dissipated as the curve steepened by mos… read more...

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 18:15:25:000

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes *These ideas were discussed in more detail with members of EPB Macro Research. Join Today For Free . * As bonds ( EDV ) sold off over the past several days, the worries of a 'flattening yield curve' dissipated as the curve steepened by mos… read more...

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-15 18:15:25:000

Yield Curve Flattens As Financial Stress Spikes *These ideas were discussed in more detail with members of EPB Macro Research. Join Today For Free . * As bonds ( EDV ) sold off over the past several days, the worries of a 'flattening yield curve' dissipated as the curve steepened by mos… read more...

A New Era In Monetary Policy Begins In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-12-26 06:46:00:000

On Wednesday, December 13 the U.S. Federal Reserve increased the short-term Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points for the fifth time since liftoff from zero in December 2015. The rate hike was the third of 2017, and almost all market participants had expected the move as the central bank had been … read more...

Thoughts On Tuesday's Bond Selloff

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-12-19 20:30:46:000

Rates markets are notably higher with yields on 10-year Treasuries up 7bp to 2.46% in what may simply be a low-volume re-positioning move -- but what may also be in anticipation of the reflationary forces that tax reform could bring to the US economy in 2018. That's from Goldman's midday c… read more...

Podcast Episode 4: Hungary, U.S. Treasury Bonds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-11-23 10:22:07:000

Jordan: Well, hello again everyone. Welcome back to the Atlas Investor Podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for joining us today for Episode 4. Tiho, my friend, how are you doing today? Tiho Brkan: I'm pretty good Jordan. A little bit tired from a lot of traveling through Europe… read more...

Is Financial Inflation Raging?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-11-07 07:59:00:000

Inflation is a scourge for the worlds central bankers. Perhaps the best example of the evils of the phenomenon that eats away at the value of money comes from the Weimar Republic in Germany following World War I. While inflation ravaged the value of the German currency, it also led to … read more...

Rules Vs. Discretion And The Next Fed Chair

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-10-24 15:05:23:000

Much of the discussion of the next Fed chair that is circulating is about personality. Some of it is about doctrine and some is about style. Life under each Fed chair is different. Each chair is different with different ideas and ways of operating and each faces somewhat different times and ch… read more...

Here's A Juicy Trade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-10-20 13:17:28:000

Call me a wimp for going so deep in the money on this trade and chasing such a small profit on my new position in the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund ( TLT ) November , 2017 $129-$131 in-the-money vertical BEAR PUT spread yesterday. With my Market Timing Index close to an all… read more...

Making A Killing On The Bond Dump

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-09-28 11:22:20:000

How would you like to get some free lottery tickets? Except that these are better than lottery tickets. Instead of a one in a million chance of winning some substantial dough, the odds of a big payoff are more like 50:50. Have I piqued your interest? Are you ready to take a flier? Do… read more...

10 Reasons Why Bonds Won't Crash

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-09-26 11:32:24:000

I have never been one to run with the pack. Im the guy who eternally marches to a different drummer, not in the next town, but the other hemisphere. I would never want to join a club that would lower its standards so far that it would invite me as a member. On those rare times that … read more...

Tight Labor Market Means More Of The Same From The Fed

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-08-04 16:35:27:000

The July jobs report had the US unemployment rate dropping back to 4.3%, which is slightly lower than the trough in 2007, and comfortably below the NAIRU - a key indication of an increasingly tight labor market. Aside from the low absolute and relative level of the unemployment rate, … read more...

The Copper-Gold Ratio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2017-07-28 17:58:47:000

An announcement that China is looking to ban copper scrap imports, coupled with higher than expected mine depletion, strong demand, and decreased mine productivity (strikes at world-class mines) caused copper to increase 5.7% this week through Thursday's close. This week's roll out of an aff… read more...

Ex-Date Payment Date Record Date Declared Date Amount Flag Dividend Type Qualified Indicated
2018-02-01 2018-02-07 2018-02-02 2018-01-31 0.160813 Dividend income
2017-12-21 2017-12-28 2017-12-22 2017-01-06 0.171945 Dividend income
2017-12-01 2017-12-07 2017-12-04 2017-01-06 0.158287 Dividend income
2017-11-01 2017-11-07 2017-11-02 2017-10-31 0.155675 FI Dividend income
2017-10-02 2017-10-06 2017-10-03 2017-09-29 0.155471 Dividend income
2017-09-01 2017-09-08 2017-09-06 2017-08-31 0.153706 Dividend income
2017-08-01 2017-08-07 2017-08-03 2017-07-31 0.152463 Dividend income
2017-07-03 2017-07-10 2017-07-06 2017-06-30 0.14779 Dividend income
2017-06-01 2017-06-07 2017-06-05 2017-05-31 0.142892 Dividend income
2017-05-01 2017-05-05 2017-05-03 2017-04-28 0.147159 Dividend income
2017-04-03 2017-04-07 2017-04-05 2017-03-31 0.134124 Dividend income
2017-03-01 2017-03-07 2017-03-03 2017-02-28 0.136641 Dividend income
2017-02-01 2017-02-07 2017-02-03 2017-01-31 0.132174 Dividend income
2016-12-22 2016-12-29 2016-12-27 2016-12-21 0.142031 Dividend income
2016-12-01 2016-12-07 2016-12-05 2016-11-30 0.101126 Short term capital gain
2016-11-01 2016-11-07 2016-11-03 2016-10-31 0.122035 Dividend income
2016-10-03 2016-10-07 2016-10-05 2016-09-30 0.121208 Dividend income
2016-09-01 2016-09-08 2016-09-06 2016-08-31 0.116547 Dividend income
2016-08-01 2016-08-05 2016-08-03 2016-07-29 0.115698 Dividend income
2016-07-01 2016-07-08 2016-07-06 2016-06-30 0.123594 Dividend income
2016-06-01 2016-06-07 2016-06-03 2016-05-31 0.122936 Dividend income
2016-05-02 2016-05-06 2016-05-04 2016-04-29 0.123476 Dividend income
2016-04-01 2016-04-07 2016-04-05 2016-03-31 0.128277 Dividend income
2016-03-01 2016-03-07 2016-03-03 2016-02-29 0.132243 Dividend income
2016-02-01 2016-02-05 2016-02-03 2016-01-29 0.122249 Dividend income
2015-12-24 2015-12-31 2015-12-29 2015-12-23 0.151227 Dividend income
2015-12-01 2015-12-07 2015-12-03 2015-11-30 0.119062 Dividend income
2015-11-02 2015-11-06 2015-11-04 2015-10-30 0.117468 Dividend income
2015-10-01 2015-10-07 2015-10-05 2015-09-30 0.117467 Dividend income
2015-09-01 2015-09-08 2015-09-03 2015-08-31 0.110003 Dividend income
2015-08-03 2015-08-07 2015-08-05 2015-07-31 0.122203 Dividend income
2015-07-01 2015-07-08 2015-07-06 2015-06-30 0.119127 Dividend income
2015-06-01 2015-06-05 2015-06-03 2015-05-29 0.119953 Dividend income
2015-05-01 2015-05-07 2015-05-05 2015-04-30 0.118965 Dividend income
2015-04-01 2015-04-08 2015-04-06 2015-03-31 0.118988 Dividend income
2015-03-02 2015-03-06 2015-03-04 2015-02-27 0.120735 Dividend income
2015-02-02 2015-02-06 2015-02-04 2015-01-30 0.13232 Dividend income
2014-12-24 2014-12-31 2014-12-29 2014-12-23 0.114274 Dividend income
2014-12-01 2014-12-05 2014-12-03 2014-11-28 0.127445 Dividend income
2014-11-03 2014-11-07 2014-11-05 2014-10-31 0.130988 Dividend income
2014-10-01 2014-10-07 2014-10-03 2014-09-30 0.125536 Dividend income
2014-09-02 2014-09-08 2014-09-04 2014-08-29 0.121706 Dividend income
2014-08-01 2014-08-07 2014-08-05 2014-07-31 0.123526 Dividend income
2014-07-01 2014-07-08 2014-07-03 2014-06-30 0.123736 Dividend income
2014-06-02 2014-06-06 2014-06-04 2014-05-30 0.12623 Dividend income
2014-04-01 2014-04-07 2014-04-03 2014-03-31 0.120419 Dividend income
2014-03-03 2014-03-07 2014-03-05 2014-02-28 0.134194 Dividend income
2014-02-03 2014-02-07 2014-02-05 2014-01-31 0.12388 Dividend income
2013-12-26 2014-01-02 2013-12-30 2013-12-24 0.112389 Dividend income
2013-12-02 2013-12-06 2013-12-04 2013-11-29 0.116611 Dividend income
2013-11-01 2013-11-07 2013-11-05 2013-10-31 0.120413 Dividend income
2013-10-01 2013-10-07 2013-10-03 2013-09-30 0.123264 Dividend income
2013-09-03 2013-09-09 2013-09-05 2013-08-30 0.122201 Dividend income
2013-08-01 2013-08-07 2013-08-05 2013-07-31 0.116718 Dividend income
2013-07-01 2013-07-08 2013-07-03 2013-06-28 0.103854 Dividend income
2013-05-01 2013-05-07 2013-05-03 2013-04-30 0.095618 Dividend income
2013-04-01 2013-04-05 2013-04-03 2013-03-28 0.100294 Dividend income
2013-03-01 2013-03-07 2013-03-05 2013-02-28 0.10818 Dividend income
2013-02-01 2013-02-07 2013-02-05 2013-01-31 0.097101 Dividend income
Ex-Date Declared Date Record Date Payment Date Ratio To Factor For Factor
Data provided for free by IEX