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ACWI

iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund

Acwi

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Summary

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI ACWI composed of large- and mid-capitalization developed and emerging market equities. The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of the underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure the combined equity market performance of developed and emerging markets countries.

Market Cap: 9.14 Billion

Primary Exchange: NASDAQ Global Market

Website: http://www.ishares.com

Shares Outstanding: 119 Million

Float: 119 Million

Dividend: 1.4015 (1.83%)

Beta: 0.981852

Sector:

Industry:

Short Interest (Jan 15, 2013): 487 Thousand

Ethical Flags

Gambling

Longest drawdown: 487 trading days

From: 2018-01-26 To: 2019-06-12

Lowest Point:

Part 2: How Should Investors Think About Political Risk?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-13 03:08:31:000

By Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA; Reina Berlien The economies of Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa have undergone an important structural shift since the 1990s, where private consumption has overtaken government spending and exports as the main contributor to GDP. On the surface, c… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 06:54:28:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 10, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 15.69% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 15.01%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.78%. Coming in last is Toky… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-11 06:54:28:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 10, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 15.69% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 15.01%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.78%. Coming in last is Toky… read more...

Where Has The Global Financial Crisis Left Us Today?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 01:30:41:000

At ExCel London, the very venue where then-UK prime minister Gordon Brown and the G20 met in April 2009 to "save the world economy" during the global financial crisis ((GFC)) , Adam Tooze addressed the 72nd CFA Institute Annual Conference , hosted by CFA Society of the UK , about where the … read more...

Where Has The Global Financial Crisis Left Us Today?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-09 01:30:41:000

At ExCel London, the very venue where then-UK prime minister Gordon Brown and the G20 met in April 2009 to "save the world economy" during the global financial crisis ((GFC)) , Adam Tooze addressed the 72nd CFA Institute Annual Conference , hosted by CFA Society of the UK , about where the … read more...

May 2019 Market Commentary - Geopolitics Trumps 'Geo-Growth'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 18:55:01:000

Data Source: Bloomberg May 2019 Market Commentary - Geopolitics Trumps 'Geo-Growth' Portrait of Sir Ralph Norman Angell, Author of the "Great Illusion". Source: Wikimedia . Labeled for Reuse. Bear with us as we pen a longer-than-usual monthly commentary, but we believe that the … read more...

May 2019 Market Commentary - Geopolitics Trumps 'Geo-Growth'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 18:55:01:000

Data Source: Bloomberg May 2019 Market Commentary - Geopolitics Trumps 'Geo-Growth' Portrait of Sir Ralph Norman Angell, Author of the "Great Illusion". Source: Wikimedia . Labeled for Reuse. Bear with us as we pen a longer-than-usual monthly commentary, but we believe that the … read more...

May 2019 Market Commentary - Geopolitics Trumps 'Geo-Growth'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 18:55:01:000

Data Source: Bloomberg May 2019 Market Commentary - Geopolitics Trumps 'Geo-Growth' Portrait of Sir Ralph Norman Angell, Author of the "Great Illusion". Source: Wikimedia . Labeled for Reuse. Bear with us as we pen a longer-than-usual monthly commentary, but we believe that the … read more...

The Month Of May Was A 'Game-Changer' For Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 09:01:25:000

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Jun. 3, 2019, in Market & Economic It's the beginning of June, and I haven't been this happy to welcome a new month in a very long time. I suspect many investors and market watchers have that same feeling. May was b… read more...

EU Election: Negative But Could Have Been Worse

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 07:19:37:000

By Bill Witherell, Ph.D. The results of the European Union's Parliamentary elections, held the last weekend in May, were welcomed by investors as being not as bad as many had feared. A broad populist and nationalist anti-EU surge, which had looked possible, was avoided. Pro-EU lawmakers wi… read more...

Technology And The Fight For The Cash Flows Of The Future

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-05 07:10:47:000

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that there's little benefit to "trading the news" today, as prices adjust instantly to highly-transparent information. Rather, investors would do well to follow long-term cash flows, of which the lion's share is to be found in tech. Ignore market noise … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-04 23:31:24:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 3, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 17.23% gain, and in second place is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 12.19%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 11.77%. Coming in l… read more...

The Asset Allocator: Does Global Diversification Still Work? (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 12:00:00:000

Listen on the go! Subscribe to the SA for FAs podcast on iTunes , Stitcher and SoundCloud (click the highlighted links). Should investors finally throw in the towel on global diversification after the S&P 500s trouncing of everything else for over a decade now… read more...

The Asset Allocator: Does Global Diversification Still Work? (Podcast)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 12:00:00:000

Listen on the go! Subscribe to the SA for FAs podcast on iTunes , Stitcher and SoundCloud (click the highlighted links). Should investors finally throw in the towel on global diversification after the S&P 500s trouncing of everything else for over a decade now… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Ten-Year Yield Nears 2%, While Volatility Simmers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 08:40:46:000

Market Intro CNBC CNBC: 11:39AM EST Stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are having difficulty making heads or tails of how to proceed as the week opens, having swung meaningfully to both the high and the low end of "unch" as the day begins. Spot VIX is down modestly in the first we… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Ten-Year Yield Nears 2%, While Volatility Simmers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 08:40:46:000

Market Intro CNBC CNBC: 11:39AM EST Stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are having difficulty making heads or tails of how to proceed as the week opens, having swung meaningfully to both the high and the low end of "unch" as the day begins. Spot VIX is down modestly in the first we… read more...

U.S.-Mexico Trade War? Investors, Don't Panic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 03:04:27:000

By Carmel Corbett Wellso Director of Research Carmel Wellso explains what the latest front in global trade wars means for investors. The bull in the china shop is back at it. On Thursday, President Trump tweeted that he will impose a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico until th… read more...

U.S.-Mexico Trade War? Investors, Don't Panic

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 03:04:27:000

By Carmel Corbett Wellso Director of Research Carmel Wellso explains what the latest front in global trade wars means for investors. The bull in the china shop is back at it. On Thursday, President Trump tweeted that he will impose a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico until th… read more...

Wrestling In The Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 01:37:39:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities Slowing growth, low yields and geopolitical maneuvers are making for quite a spectacle. I spent a week in Japan recently, and although sumo contests weren't part of my itinerary, I did have a chance to watch and refl… read more...

Wrestling In The Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-06-03 01:37:39:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities Slowing growth, low yields and geopolitical maneuvers are making for quite a spectacle. I spent a week in Japan recently, and although sumo contests weren't part of my itinerary, I did have a chance to watch and refl… read more...

Dealing With Disruption

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 03:39:10:000

In early May we gathered our global team of investment professionals in Newport Beach for PIMCO's 38th annual Secular Forum. With input from invited speakers (see Our Process section, below) as well as our Global Advisory Board and other consultants, we zoomed in on several key secular drive… read more...

Dealing With Disruption

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 03:39:10:000

In early May we gathered our global team of investment professionals in Newport Beach for PIMCO's 38th annual Secular Forum. With input from invited speakers (see Our Process section, below) as well as our Global Advisory Board and other consultants, we zoomed in on several key secular drive… read more...

Dealing With Disruption

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 03:39:10:000

In early May we gathered our global team of investment professionals in Newport Beach for PIMCO's 38th annual Secular Forum. With input from invited speakers (see Our Process section, below) as well as our Global Advisory Board and other consultants, we zoomed in on several key secular drive… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 03:34:01:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 28, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with an 18.04% gain and in second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 13.29%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 11.65%. Coming in last is Toky… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 03:34:01:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 28, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with an 18.04% gain and in second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 13.29%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 11.65%. Coming in last is Toky… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-30 03:34:01:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 28, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with an 18.04% gain and in second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 13.29%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 11.65%. Coming in last is Toky… read more...

The iShares Global Impact ETF: How Sustainable Development Can Be Unsustainable

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 22:22:42:000

So I previously wrote about a few funds dedicated to investing according to religious values. There are also funds dedicated to investing according to social values. The iShares MSCI Global Impact ETF ( SDG ) is one such fund that is dedicated to investing according to the United Nations' Su… read more...

The iShares Global Impact ETF: How Sustainable Development Can Be Unsustainable

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 22:22:42:000

So I previously wrote about a few funds dedicated to investing according to religious values. There are also funds dedicated to investing according to social values. The iShares MSCI Global Impact ETF ( SDG ) is one such fund that is dedicated to investing according to the United Nations' Su… read more...

The iShares Global Impact ETF: How Sustainable Development Can Be Unsustainable

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 22:22:42:000

So I previously wrote about a few funds dedicated to investing according to religious values. There are also funds dedicated to investing according to social values. The iShares MSCI Global Impact ETF ( SDG ) is one such fund that is dedicated to investing according to the United Nations' Su… read more...

Borrowed Time: Final Rate Hikes And Stock Market Rallies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-29 02:49:11:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop Over the past 30 years, stock markets around the world have rallied after the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates for the last time in the economic cycle. The rallies have varied in length and strength, but eventually break down as the late cycle environment enco… read more...

Goldilocks And The 3 Bears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-28 23:32:49:000

Beginning around the end of 2006 it was common to hear that the U.S. stock market would keep climbing because the U.S. economy was neither too hot nor too cold; it was just right. This was often called the Goldilocks economy on cable TV in honor of the young girl who wanders into a strange hom… read more...

The Impact Of U.S.-China Trade Tensions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 22:45:41:000

By Eugenio Cerutti, Assistant to the Director at IMF's Research Department, Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of IMF's Research Department, and Adil Mohommad, Economist in IMF's Research Department US-China trade tensions have negatively affected consumers as well as many pr… read more...

The Impact Of U.S.-China Trade Tensions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 22:45:41:000

By Eugenio Cerutti, Assistant to the Director at IMF's Research Department, Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of IMF's Research Department, and Adil Mohommad, Economist in IMF's Research Department US-China trade tensions have negatively affected consumers as well as many pr… read more...

The Impact Of U.S.-China Trade Tensions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 22:45:41:000

By Eugenio Cerutti, Assistant to the Director at IMF's Research Department, Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of IMF's Research Department, and Adil Mohommad, Economist in IMF's Research Department US-China trade tensions have negatively affected consumers as well as many pr… read more...

The Impact Of U.S.-China Trade Tensions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-24 22:45:41:000

By Eugenio Cerutti, Assistant to the Director at IMF's Research Department, Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of IMF's Research Department, and Adil Mohommad, Economist in IMF's Research Department US-China trade tensions have negatively affected consumers as well as many pr… read more...

Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF: Still Missing That Human Touch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 11:43:00:000

A few months ago, a subscriber asked me to take a look at a fund on his interest list, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF ( BOTZ ), which we did in the article " BOTZ: Looks Great In The Window, But Won't Take It Home. " The fund focuses on investing in compan… read more...

Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF: Still Missing That Human Touch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 11:43:00:000

A few months ago, a subscriber asked me to take a look at a fund on his interest list, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF ( BOTZ ), which we did in the article " BOTZ: Looks Great In The Window, But Won't Take It Home. " The fund focuses on investing in compan… read more...

Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF: Still Missing That Human Touch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 11:43:00:000

A few months ago, a subscriber asked me to take a look at a fund on his interest list, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF ( BOTZ ), which we did in the article " BOTZ: Looks Great In The Window, But Won't Take It Home. " The fund focuses on investing in compan… read more...

Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF: Still Missing That Human Touch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 11:43:00:000

A few months ago, a subscriber asked me to take a look at a fund on his interest list, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF ( BOTZ ), which we did in the article " BOTZ: Looks Great In The Window, But Won't Take It Home. " The fund focuses on investing in compan… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 04:20:27:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 20, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 16.44% gain, and in second place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.27%. In third place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 13.16%. Coming in … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 04:20:27:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 20, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 16.44% gain, and in second place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.27%. In third place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 13.16%. Coming in … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 04:20:27:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 20, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 16.44% gain, and in second place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.27%. In third place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 13.16%. Coming in … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-21 04:20:27:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 20, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 16.44% gain, and in second place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.27%. In third place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 13.16%. Coming in … read more...

The Markets Are Asleep At The Wheel

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 23:53:23:000

Markets do not have the best of past records in pricing in major systemic risks to the global economy that later materialized and that then caused substantial market declines. Judging by how sanguine markets currently seem to be about the unusual constellation of major risks facing the world e… read more...

The Markets Are Asleep At The Wheel

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 23:53:23:000

Markets do not have the best of past records in pricing in major systemic risks to the global economy that later materialized and that then caused substantial market declines. Judging by how sanguine markets currently seem to be about the unusual constellation of major risks facing the world e… read more...

The Markets Are Asleep At The Wheel

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 23:53:23:000

Markets do not have the best of past records in pricing in major systemic risks to the global economy that later materialized and that then caused substantial market declines. Judging by how sanguine markets currently seem to be about the unusual constellation of major risks facing the world e… read more...

The Markets Are Asleep At The Wheel

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 23:53:23:000

Markets do not have the best of past records in pricing in major systemic risks to the global economy that later materialized and that then caused substantial market declines. Judging by how sanguine markets currently seem to be about the unusual constellation of major risks facing the world e… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Both Risks And Returns Often Come From Unlikely Sources

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 07:59:30:000

Market Intro CNBC: 10:02AM EST US stocks (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM) are down modestly to open the week. Still, S&P futures hit an overnight high of 2876 , and have drifted steadily lower since then. Sector action is mixed, with tech ( XLK ) and communications ( XLC ) driving losses. S… read more...

News Cycle Vs. Business Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-20 04:41:56:000

By Erik Knutzen Trade talks are important and may cause volatility, but they should not determine portfolio strategy. Headlines on the front page of the newspapers have been propelling markets again over the past two weeks. Earlier in the year, the dovish turn by the major central bank… read more...

Playing The Long Ball

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-18 23:51:09:000

The global financial markets are being held prisoner by rising trade tensions, primarily between the United States and China. While both countries feel, but to differing degrees, that they can weather a trade war, each is focusing on who will dominate the global economy over the next generatio… read more...

FieraCapital Tactical Asset Allocation Committee Monthly Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 00:47:38:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

FieraCapital Tactical Asset Allocation Committee Monthly Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 00:47:38:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

FieraCapital Tactical Asset Allocation Committee Monthly Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-16 00:47:38:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

A Conversation With NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-15 11:26:16:000

Aswath Damodaran is Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at NYU. He received his Ph.D. in 1985 in Finance from UCLA, and has been making important contributions to our understanding of finance ever since, earning myriad awards for his research and his teaching along the way. Hi… read more...

Geopolitics: Examining The Top 5 Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 23:24:00:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop Geopolitical risk has recently returned to the markets in the following five ways: Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China and the looming possibility of auto tariffs impacting Europe and Japan. New missile launches by North Korea. The U.S. intensif… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-14 13:07:01:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 13, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 17.78% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 13.61%. In third is France's CAC40 with a gain of 12.22%. Coming in last is India's … read more...

Total USD Portfolio Monthly Review - April 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-13 08:49:52:000

Overview April just delivered another strong momentum of price returns, with major US indices hitting new highs. My Total USD Portfolio and all its benchmarks turned positive for the first time since last October. Measured by the S&P 500, the US large-cap stocks were up more than 4% … read more...

A Risk-On Environment Is A Good Time To Take Risk Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 02:15:27:000

It has been quite a ride to the upside in global markets in 2019 to date. The swings in sentiment since October 2018 have been extreme, creating a significant late-cycle trading opportunity as markets bottomed during December. Earlier expectations for profits growth in 2019 were indeed over-op… read more...

A Risk-On Environment Is A Good Time To Take Risk Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 02:15:27:000

It has been quite a ride to the upside in global markets in 2019 to date. The swings in sentiment since October 2018 have been extreme, creating a significant late-cycle trading opportunity as markets bottomed during December. Earlier expectations for profits growth in 2019 were indeed over-op… read more...

A Risk-On Environment Is A Good Time To Take Risk Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-08 02:15:27:000

It has been quite a ride to the upside in global markets in 2019 to date. The swings in sentiment since October 2018 have been extreme, creating a significant late-cycle trading opportunity as markets bottomed during December. Earlier expectations for profits growth in 2019 were indeed over-op… read more...

Macro Update - May 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 23:55:00:000

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Macro Update - May 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 23:55:00:000

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Macro Update - May 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 23:55:00:000

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PMI Signals Further Near-Stalling Of Global Manufacturing At Start Of Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 17:11:05:000

Worldwide PMI surveys indicated that manufacturing once again broadly stagnated in April, with growth of business activity running at its lowest since mid-2016. New order inflows continued at one of the slowest rates since 2012 amid a further decline in worldwide exports. Weak demand, meanwh… read more...

PMI Signals Further Near-Stalling Of Global Manufacturing At Start Of Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 17:11:05:000

Worldwide PMI surveys indicated that manufacturing once again broadly stagnated in April, with growth of business activity running at its lowest since mid-2016. New order inflows continued at one of the slowest rates since 2012 amid a further decline in worldwide exports. Weak demand, meanwh… read more...

PMI Signals Further Near-Stalling Of Global Manufacturing At Start Of Second Quarter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 17:11:05:000

Worldwide PMI surveys indicated that manufacturing once again broadly stagnated in April, with growth of business activity running at its lowest since mid-2016. New order inflows continued at one of the slowest rates since 2012 amid a further decline in worldwide exports. Weak demand, meanwh… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-07 03:29:16:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 6, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 17.90% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.83%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.21%. Coming in last is India's… read more...

Don't Be Swayed By 'Sell In May And Go Away!'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 21:39:26:000

Are you a trader or an investor? Ask Warren Buffett, the greatest investor of our lifetime, why he believes in buying and holding as do we unless there is a reason to change course as we did last October. We know many rich investors but few wealthy traders. We understand the virtues of compo… read more...

Don't Be Swayed By 'Sell In May And Go Away!'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 21:39:26:000

Are you a trader or an investor? Ask Warren Buffett, the greatest investor of our lifetime, why he believes in buying and holding as do we unless there is a reason to change course as we did last October. We know many rich investors but few wealthy traders. We understand the virtues of compo… read more...

Global And BRIC Manufacturing PMIs Signal Ongoing Growth Declines

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-04 08:21:28:000

The latest data, released this week by Markit under their PMI headings, show that the global slowdown in the manufacturing sector has entered into its 6th consecutive quarter in the first month of 2Q 2019. In line with this momentum, BRIC economies overall, with exception (for now) of Russia a… read more...

Watch Out For Volatility, Even In Rising Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 02:27:25:000

By Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki, Chris Marx Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern… read more...

Watch Out For Volatility, Even In Rising Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-02 02:27:25:000

By Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki, Chris Marx Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-05-01 02:28:47:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 29, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 24.22% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 17.25%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.22%. Coming in last is Indi… read more...

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF: Managing Less And Costing More Than Other Funds

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 20:54:27:000

Investment Thesis Despite the fact that the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ( EFA ) pays a stable dividend covered by net investment income and matches the size of competitors in the foreign equity universe, it commands a much higher expense ratio, while managing a smaller portfolio than its peers. In… read more...

ClearBridge International Value Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 04:40:00:000

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ClearBridge International Growth Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 03:40:00:000

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ClearBridge Global Growth Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-30 03:13:41:000

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The Path Forward

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 20:27:28:000

The U.S. stock market hit new highs last week continuing to climb on a on a wall of worry while most other markets including China declined. It remains clear that both the U.S. and Chinese economies have accelerated while the economies of Europe and Japan remain stuck in the mud, in desperate … read more...

The Path Forward

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-27 20:27:28:000

The U.S. stock market hit new highs last week continuing to climb on a on a wall of worry while most other markets including China declined. It remains clear that both the U.S. and Chinese economies have accelerated while the economies of Europe and Japan remain stuck in the mud, in desperate … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 01:49:28:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 23, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 29.74% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.88%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.22%. Coming in last is Indi… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 01:49:28:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 23, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 29.74% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.88%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.22%. Coming in last is Indi… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-24 01:49:28:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 23, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 29.74% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.88%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.22%. Coming in last is Indi… read more...

Traps On The Road To High Income

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-22 17:41:28:000

The middle-income trap has become a broad designation trying to capture the many cases of developing countries that succeeded in evolving from low- to middle-levels of per capita income, but then appeared to stall, losing momentum along the route toward the higher income leve… read more...

Looking Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 22:07:16:000

Paix et Prosprit's success has been our ability to anticipate and react to change while keeping an eye towards the future. We structure our portfolios after in-depth top down and bottom up research and being patient enough to profit as it all unfolds. We tend to buy early, anticipa… read more...

Looking Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 22:07:16:000

Paix et Prosprit's success has been our ability to anticipate and react to change while keeping an eye towards the future. We structure our portfolios after in-depth top down and bottom up research and being patient enough to profit as it all unfolds. We tend to buy early, anticipa… read more...

What 3 Ingredients Are Contributing To The Current Strong Global Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-20 03:19:46:000

In today's episode of Market Week in Review, when Head of AIS Business Solutions Sophie Antal Gilbert was joined by Quantitative Investment Strategist Dr. Kara Ng, they laid out the three ingredients which are contributing to the current strong global economy. The need for Goldilocks co… read more...

10 Investor Takeaways From The 2019 Spring IMFWorld Bank Meetings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-19 00:14:27:000

Set against a constructive global backdrop, the overall tone at the mid-April meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Washington, DC, was optimistic, albeit mindful of the differentiated political and idiosyncratic risks across emerging markets ((EM)). PIMCO als… read more...

The Late, Late Cycle: Preparing For A World Of Lower Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-18 03:16:41:000

By Richard Brink and Walt Czaicki These are tricky days for the global economy. As growth downshifts and corporate earnings weaken, some investors are dusting off playbooks for late-cycle investing. That makes sense, but there are a few twists to today's market conditions that may require… read more...

Global Markets And A New Way Of Financial Planning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 04:13:28:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA On last week's episode of the "Behind the Markets" podcast, Liqian Ren and I were joined by Steve Cordasco, CEO of Cordasco Financial Network, and Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research for the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. We engaged in a wide-ranging disc… read more...

Global Markets And A New Way Of Financial Planning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-16 04:13:28:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA On last week's episode of the "Behind the Markets" podcast, Liqian Ren and I were joined by Steve Cordasco, CEO of Cordasco Financial Network, and Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research for the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. We engaged in a wide-ranging disc… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 23:58:25:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 15, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 28.9% gain, and in second place is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 18.62%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 17.47%. Coming in l… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 23:58:25:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through April 15, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 28.9% gain, and in second place is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 18.62%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 17.47%. Coming in l… read more...

Market Turbulence And Policy Reversal Shouldn't Cow Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 23:39:53:000

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that despite the market turbulence witnessed in the past several months, as well as a dramatic policy reversal, we find ourselves at a moment of remarkable economic stability. That fact, along with greater policy accommodation and capacity, argues for heal… read more...

Market Turbulence And Policy Reversal Shouldn't Cow Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 23:39:53:000

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that despite the market turbulence witnessed in the past several months, as well as a dramatic policy reversal, we find ourselves at a moment of remarkable economic stability. That fact, along with greater policy accommodation and capacity, argues for heal… read more...

Mapping Climate-Related Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 22:41:54:000

A spate of recent extreme weather events - from hurricanes and wildfires in the U.S. to heat waves in Europe - has put a spotlight on climate-related risks. Yet, climate-related portfolio risks have been hard to pinpoint - until recently. Advances in climate and data science now allow us to as… read more...

Mapping Climate-Related Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 22:41:54:000

A spate of recent extreme weather events - from hurricanes and wildfires in the U.S. to heat waves in Europe - has put a spotlight on climate-related risks. Yet, climate-related portfolio risks have been hard to pinpoint - until recently. Advances in climate and data science now allow us to as… read more...

From U.S.-Sino Talks To New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Prospects

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-15 00:04:18:000

Recently, IMF cut global growth forecasts. As US-Sino trade talks will give way to next trade wars, new tariff wars will not resolve US deficits but will further impair global economic prospects. Ever since the US-Sino trade talks began almost four months ago, the United States has pushed … read more...

Front-Running Easy Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 21:10:00:000

In a nutshell, this is what my models are telling at the moment: the three-month stock-to-bond ratios in the U.S. and Europe have soared, indicating that equities should lose momentum in Q2 at the expense of a further decline in bond yields. That said, the three-month ratios currently are boos… read more...

Part 2: Our Evaluation Of The Global Economic Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 08:55:47:000

By Anujeet Sareen, CFA The Bearish View of the Global Economic Cycle Federal Reserve Policy A good place to start evaluating the bearish case for global growth is to consider policy changes at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). As we know, the Fed raised interest rates by over 200 basis… read more...

Watch Out For Volatility, Even In Rising Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-14 06:52:46:000

By Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki and Chris Marx Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother … read more...

High Debt Hampers Countries' Response To A Fast-Changing Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 22:14:17:000

By Vitor Gaspar, Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, John Ralyea, Senior Economist in the IMFs Fiscal Affairs Department, and Elif Ture, Economist in the IMFs Fiscal Affairs Department Economic growth is slowing, and public debt remains high across th… read more...

High Debt Hampers Countries' Response To A Fast-Changing Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 22:14:17:000

By Vitor Gaspar, Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, John Ralyea, Senior Economist in the IMFs Fiscal Affairs Department, and Elif Ture, Economist in the IMFs Fiscal Affairs Department Economic growth is slowing, and public debt remains high across th… read more...

What Constitutes Value?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-11 10:41:09:000

We are going to begin this week with our annual value lesson. For those of our readers that have not read this before, we hope you enjoy this lesson and we hope that you gain some very keen insight as to what constitutes value and what constitutes individualistic, "because I can" mentality. Fi… read more...

IMF Cancels Globally Synchronized Growth, Confirms The Worst Case

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 23:52:05:000

The IMF becomes the latest mainstream organization to abandon the recovery. It wasn't really much of one to begin with, mostly just the hope that an uptick in growth would lead to the long sought, and necessary, completion. Globally synchronized growth in 2017 was supposed to mean a plausible … read more...

Weak Spots In Global Financial System Could Amplify Shocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 17:09:05:000

By Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, and Fabio Natalucci, Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department In the United States, the ratio of corporate debt to GDP is at record-high levels. In several Europe… read more...

ETF Month 2019 No. 1: Global X SuperDividend ETF Coverage Improves, But Is A Heavy Bet On Real Estate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 11:36:47:000

ETF Month Begins! I've recently received some member feedback saying that they weren't only interested in closed-end funds. I do admit that our service has been devoting more attention to CEFs recently, due to the attractive opportunities offered by the December sell-off. However, with CEF v… read more...

Central Banks Are Heading Toward A Stagnant Global Zombie Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 03:02:36:000

By Daniel Lacalle Liquidity injections and zero interest rate policies disguise risk and may give a false sense of security. This risk could not be more evident today. Not only have we seen large downgrades to consensus growth estimates and central banks' expectations of GDP and inflation,… read more...

The Global Macro Picture Is Ready To Explode With Alex Barrow

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-10 00:36:23:000

This episode I talk with Alex Barrow, Co-Founder and Chief Macro Strategist of Macro Ops. We discuss the major moves that are shaping up in the global macro space. In this episode we touch on the dollar, bonds, metals, inflation, inverted yield curve, China, $YTRA and equity indexes. … read more...

Fed nears vote on reworked rules for foreign banks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 06:47:45:000

The Federal Reserve is poised to revamp rules overseeing foreign banks that are expected to require some of them to boost reserves of easy-to-sell assets to act as a buffer during downturns, Bloomberg reports. More news on: The Toronto-Dominion Bank, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank… read more...

Fed nears vote on reworked rules for foreign banks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 06:47:45:000

The Federal Reserve is poised to revamp rules overseeing foreign banks that are expected to require some of them to boost reserves of easy-to-sell assets to act as a buffer during downturns, Bloomberg reports. More news on: The Toronto-Dominion Bank, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank… read more...

Tactical Asset Allocation Can Add Value To Portfolio Return

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 04:36:20:000

A potential downside for investors employing a strict longer-term strategic investment allocation based on a specific benchmark or index is that the strategy fails to incorporate shorter-term tactical changes. It certainly can go without saying, but indexing strategies are popular ones for inv… read more...

Tactical Asset Allocation Can Add Value To Portfolio Return

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-08 04:36:20:000

A potential downside for investors employing a strict longer-term strategic investment allocation based on a specific benchmark or index is that the strategy fails to incorporate shorter-term tactical changes. It certainly can go without saying, but indexing strategies are popular ones for inv… read more...

Global Economy At A Delicate Moment, Says The IMF

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 03:09:11:000

Next week, the 2019 Spring Meeting of the International Monetary Fund ((IMF)) and the World Bank will take place in Washington, in this 75th year since the birth of the two institutions. Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, speaking on Tuesday at the US Chamber of Commerce , offe… read more...

Global Economy At A Delicate Moment, Says The IMF

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 03:09:11:000

Next week, the 2019 Spring Meeting of the International Monetary Fund ((IMF)) and the World Bank will take place in Washington, in this 75th year since the birth of the two institutions. Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, speaking on Tuesday at the US Chamber of Commerce , offe… read more...

Global Economy At A Delicate Moment, Says The IMF

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 03:09:11:000

Next week, the 2019 Spring Meeting of the International Monetary Fund ((IMF)) and the World Bank will take place in Washington, in this 75th year since the birth of the two institutions. Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, speaking on Tuesday at the US Chamber of Commerce , offe… read more...

What's Next For Global Equities?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 02:01:53:000

By Ashwin Alankar, Ph.D. Transcript Ashwin Alankar: What has transpired, really, through the course of 2019 year to date is all the forces that we were afraid that may push economies into recession have disappeared. China-U.S. trade negotiations are going better than expected. Earnings… read more...

What's Next For Global Equities?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 02:01:53:000

By Ashwin Alankar, Ph.D. Transcript Ashwin Alankar: What has transpired, really, through the course of 2019 year to date is all the forces that we were afraid that may push economies into recession have disappeared. China-U.S. trade negotiations are going better than expected. Earnings… read more...

What's Next For Global Equities?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 02:01:53:000

By Ashwin Alankar, Ph.D. Transcript Ashwin Alankar: What has transpired, really, through the course of 2019 year to date is all the forces that we were afraid that may push economies into recession have disappeared. China-U.S. trade negotiations are going better than expected. Earnings… read more...

External Demand, Global Means Global

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 00:12:49:000

The Reserve Bank of India ((RBI)) cut its benchmark money rate for the second straight meeting. Reducing its repo rate by 25 bps, down to 6%, the central bank once gripped by political turmoil has certainly shifted gears. Former Governor Urjit Patel was essentially removed (he resigned) in Dec… read more...

External Demand, Global Means Global

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 00:12:49:000

The Reserve Bank of India ((RBI)) cut its benchmark money rate for the second straight meeting. Reducing its repo rate by 25 bps, down to 6%, the central bank once gripped by political turmoil has certainly shifted gears. Former Governor Urjit Patel was essentially removed (he resigned) in Dec… read more...

External Demand, Global Means Global

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-05 00:12:49:000

The Reserve Bank of India ((RBI)) cut its benchmark money rate for the second straight meeting. Reducing its repo rate by 25 bps, down to 6%, the central bank once gripped by political turmoil has certainly shifted gears. Former Governor Urjit Patel was essentially removed (he resigned) in Dec… read more...

Economic Forces, Not Tariffs, Drive Changes In Trade Balances

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 21:30:32:000

By Johannes Eugster, Economist, Multilateral Surveillance Division, IMF Research Department; Florence Jaumotte, Deputy Division Chief, IMF's Research Department; Margaux MacDonald, Economist, Research Department of the IMF; and Roberto Piazza, Economist, Multilateral Surveillance Division, IM… read more...

Economic Forces, Not Tariffs, Drive Changes In Trade Balances

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 21:30:32:000

By Johannes Eugster, Economist, Multilateral Surveillance Division, IMF Research Department; Florence Jaumotte, Deputy Division Chief, IMF's Research Department; Margaux MacDonald, Economist, Research Department of the IMF; and Roberto Piazza, Economist, Multilateral Surveillance Division, IM… read more...

Economic Forces, Not Tariffs, Drive Changes In Trade Balances

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 21:30:32:000

By Johannes Eugster, Economist, Multilateral Surveillance Division, IMF Research Department; Florence Jaumotte, Deputy Division Chief, IMF's Research Department; Margaux MacDonald, Economist, Research Department of the IMF; and Roberto Piazza, Economist, Multilateral Surveillance Division, IM… read more...

Global Trade May Be Slowing, But Costs Continue To Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 19:38:18:000

Original Post By Stuart Burns Sea freight has to be one of the most cost-effective means of transporting goods over long distances ever invented. Even with increasing ocean freight rates, it is often the case it costs as much to ship from Calcutta to London as it does to then clear a… read more...

Global Trade May Be Slowing, But Costs Continue To Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 19:38:18:000

Original Post By Stuart Burns Sea freight has to be one of the most cost-effective means of transporting goods over long distances ever invented. Even with increasing ocean freight rates, it is often the case it costs as much to ship from Calcutta to London as it does to then clear a… read more...

Global Trade May Be Slowing, But Costs Continue To Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 19:38:18:000

Original Post By Stuart Burns Sea freight has to be one of the most cost-effective means of transporting goods over long distances ever invented. Even with increasing ocean freight rates, it is often the case it costs as much to ship from Calcutta to London as it does to then clear a… read more...

In Other News: 'Synchronized Global Growth Has Collapsed'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 06:29:28:000

This morning we learned that US private payrolls posted another disappointing month in March as the job market continued to slow, and Deutsche Bank analysts warn that order backlog growth at Caterpillar (CAT) - maker of earth movers and construction equipment and global-growth bellwether - a… read more...

Part 1: Our Evaluation Of The Global Economic Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-04 00:04:09:000

By Anujeet Sareen, CFA This June, the current economic expansion will end up being the longest in post-war history. Therefore, it's natural to ask, "Are we headed into a recession later this year or in 2020?" It's a tall ask to evaluate whether a global recession is coming, and a logical p… read more...

Inversions And Reversals: Leaders And Laggards May Be Changing Places

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 01:58:01:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop The yield curve is said to invert when the yield on the 3-month Treasury exceeds the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Many investors focus on this historically negative signal for the overall stock market, as inversions typically precede economic recessions. But, the oppo… read more...

Inversions And Reversals: Leaders And Laggards May Be Changing Places

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-02 01:58:01:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop The yield curve is said to invert when the yield on the 3-month Treasury exceeds the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Many investors focus on this historically negative signal for the overall stock market, as inversions typically precede economic recessions. But, the oppo… read more...

The Reality Of Globalization

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 17:34:47:000

Rana Foroohar provides the following data in her recent opinion piece in the Financial Times : Despite small decreases in overseas revenues for the past couple of years, nearly half the sales of the S&P 500 come from abroad. This information struck me because I believe that … read more...

The Reality Of Globalization

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-04-01 17:34:47:000

Rana Foroohar provides the following data in her recent opinion piece in the Financial Times : Despite small decreases in overseas revenues for the past couple of years, nearly half the sales of the S&P 500 come from abroad. This information struck me because I believe that … read more...

There's No Place Like Home

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 20:51:01:000

The U.S. stock market finished its best quarterly performance since 2009 rising by nearly 13% with the 10-year treasury bond ending at a breathtaking 2.4%. The pundits/experts have been fighting this every day, constantly calling for a market top anticipating an economic downturn or even a rec… read more...

There's No Place Like Home

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 20:51:01:000

The U.S. stock market finished its best quarterly performance since 2009 rising by nearly 13% with the 10-year treasury bond ending at a breathtaking 2.4%. The pundits/experts have been fighting this every day, constantly calling for a market top anticipating an economic downturn or even a rec… read more...

Is This Year's Rebound In Global Markets Overbought?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-30 03:43:04:000

How do you define irrational exuberance? There's no single answer, much less one that offers flawless signals for timing rallies and corrections in financial markets. But the latest trend data for all the major asset classes (based on proxies via a set of exchange-traded funds) suggests that t… read more...

3 Key Takeaways From PIMCO's Cyclical Outlook: Flatlining At The New Neutral

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 22:54:15:000

Following the Federal Reserve's pivot to patience, we believe U.S. short-term interest rates are now anchored in the New Neutral. Global growth keeps synching lower, but may experience a soft landing later this year if China's economy stabilizes and trade tensions ease. However, political unce… read more...

Inflation Is Always And Everywhere A Political Phenomenon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 22:15:26:000

We don't understand inflation. Those who lived through the high inflation of the 1970s are convinced that inflation is always and everywhere caused by wage price spirals. Germans, economic Austrians and Bitcoiners are convinced that inflation is always and everywhere caused by central bank mon… read more...

Capital Flows In A World Of Low Interest Rates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 21:58:39:000

By Joseph Joyce Interest rates in advanced economies continue to persist at historically low levels. This trend is due not only to the response of central banks to slow growth, but also due to fundamental factors. If these interest rates continue close to their current levels, what are the… read more...

2019 Global Market Outlook - Q2 Update: The Pause That Refreshes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-28 01:21:23:000

Global central banks have turned dovish, China stimulus is stronger than expected and trade-war tensions are easing. The cycle is becoming slightly more supportive for equities, but we believe it's late in the game and upside potential is limited. Key market themes Markets are caugh… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-27 06:13:12:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 25, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 21.57% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 13.67%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 13.12%. Coming in last is India… read more...

What Can Push The Markets Forward In 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-26 10:58:22:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA In last week's episode of the "Behind the Markets" podcast, I was joined by Gene Goldman, director of research and CIO of Cetera Investment Management. Our discussion ranged from Goldman's role at Cetera to recent trends in emerging markets and macro data that might… read more...

Global Earnings Revisions Collapse: When Bad News Is Good News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 13:17:35:000

I've seen a few charts floating around on global earnings revisions, and this is certainly something we track. As you might expect, we take a unique angle on this, and the chart in focus today presents a particularly unique indicator on global earnings revisions trends - and what it means for … read more...

Global Earnings Revisions Collapse: When Bad News Is Good News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 13:17:35:000

I've seen a few charts floating around on global earnings revisions, and this is certainly something we track. As you might expect, we take a unique angle on this, and the chart in focus today presents a particularly unique indicator on global earnings revisions trends - and what it means for … read more...

Global Earnings Revisions Collapse: When Bad News Is Good News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 13:17:35:000

I've seen a few charts floating around on global earnings revisions, and this is certainly something we track. As you might expect, we take a unique angle on this, and the chart in focus today presents a particularly unique indicator on global earnings revisions trends - and what it means for … read more...

Global Earnings Revisions Collapse: When Bad News Is Good News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 13:17:35:000

I've seen a few charts floating around on global earnings revisions, and this is certainly something we track. As you might expect, we take a unique angle on this, and the chart in focus today presents a particularly unique indicator on global earnings revisions trends - and what it means for … read more...

How Do You Know When Stocks Are 'Cheap'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 07:59:50:000

Stocks have had a very strong start to 2019, across most of the world. The MSCI All-Countries World Index (ACWI), of both developed and emerging market stocks, is up 12.8% since the start of the year. This is the bounce after late 2018's sharp falls. But why do disparate stock markets so often… read more...

How Do You Know When Stocks Are 'Cheap'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 07:59:50:000

Stocks have had a very strong start to 2019, across most of the world. The MSCI All-Countries World Index (ACWI), of both developed and emerging market stocks, is up 12.8% since the start of the year. This is the bounce after late 2018's sharp falls. But why do disparate stock markets so often… read more...

How Do You Know When Stocks Are 'Cheap'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 07:59:50:000

Stocks have had a very strong start to 2019, across most of the world. The MSCI All-Countries World Index (ACWI), of both developed and emerging market stocks, is up 12.8% since the start of the year. This is the bounce after late 2018's sharp falls. But why do disparate stock markets so often… read more...

How Do You Know When Stocks Are 'Cheap'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 07:59:50:000

Stocks have had a very strong start to 2019, across most of the world. The MSCI All-Countries World Index (ACWI), of both developed and emerging market stocks, is up 12.8% since the start of the year. This is the bounce after late 2018's sharp falls. But why do disparate stock markets so often… read more...

Your Portfolio Will Not Have Median Returns Almost Always

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 05:00:58:000

This letter does not mention any fund by name or symbol, but focuses primarily on the S&P 500 for which ETFs such as SPY , IVV and VOO are directly related, as are mutual funds such as VFINX , VFIAX , FXAIX , SWPPX . In the section on long-term return forecasts DM and EM markets a… read more...

Your Portfolio Will Not Have Median Returns Almost Always

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 05:00:58:000

This letter does not mention any fund by name or symbol, but focuses primarily on the S&P 500 for which ETFs such as SPY , IVV and VOO are directly related, as are mutual funds such as VFINX , VFIAX , FXAIX , SWPPX . In the section on long-term return forecasts DM and EM markets a… read more...

Your Portfolio Will Not Have Median Returns Almost Always

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 05:00:58:000

This letter does not mention any fund by name or symbol, but focuses primarily on the S&P 500 for which ETFs such as SPY , IVV and VOO are directly related, as are mutual funds such as VFINX , VFIAX , FXAIX , SWPPX . In the section on long-term return forecasts DM and EM markets a… read more...

Your Portfolio Will Not Have Median Returns Almost Always

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 05:00:58:000

This letter does not mention any fund by name or symbol, but focuses primarily on the S&P 500 for which ETFs such as SPY , IVV and VOO are directly related, as are mutual funds such as VFINX , VFIAX , FXAIX , SWPPX . In the section on long-term return forecasts DM and EM markets a… read more...

Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 03:04:19:000

According to Germany's Zentrum fr Europische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country's economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute's sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stand… read more...

Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 03:04:19:000

According to Germany's Zentrum fr Europische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country's economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute's sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stand… read more...

Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 03:04:19:000

According to Germany's Zentrum fr Europische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country's economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute's sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stand… read more...

Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-20 03:04:19:000

According to Germany's Zentrum fr Europische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country's economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute's sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stand… read more...

Goldilocks Walks A Tightrope

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 04:08:55:000

By Philip Lawlor, managing director, head of global markets research The "just right" Goldilocks economic backdrop has been a major driver of global equity markets for the past several years. The recent dovish central-bank U-turn and easing trade tensions have fostered hopes that this bene… read more...

Looking Forward, Looking Back: 10 Charts After 10 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 03:58:07:000

Just over a decade ago, global markets began to recover from the biggest shock in post-war history. In these 10 charts, we aim to show how much has changed since then and how market conditions over the past decade may influence big changes that are beginning to unfold today. Even as financia… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-19 03:41:29:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 18, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 25.60% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 17.03%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 15.43%. Coming in last is India… read more...

Continued Central Bank Support, Optimism For A Trade Deal, And A Potential Rebound In Emerging Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 23:37:42:000

Q&A With Ken Leech, Chief Investment Officer, Western Asset What should we expect to see from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year? In the U.S., the window of opportunity to raise rates looked wide open in the middle two quarters of 2018, with the economy accelerating to over 3.5% g… read more...

Green Shoots In Global Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 14:30:02:000

One of my favorite analytical techniques for generating insights on global markets is studying market breadth , and those who know me know I like to take a bit of an alternative angle, and today's chart is no exception. What makes today's chart so interesting is that (in contrast to most of… read more...

For Young Investors Sitting On The Sidelines

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 12:58:02:000

A Surprising Tax Strategy The accelerated realization approachwill be especially effective for those who regularly incur short-term capital gains and highly value short-term capital lossesSo it looks like in certain situations, paying your taxes early and often migh… read more...

When It Pays To Pay Capital Gains

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-18 04:26:27:000

US taxable investors know the importance of managing their investments tax-efficiently. A standard approach to the management of capital gains and losses is to defer realization of gains for as long as possible, while aggressively realizing losses, 1 particularly short-term losses, a strategy… read more...

The World Economy's Industrial Downswing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-17 04:52:43:000

As economic data for 2019 comes in, the numbers continue to suggest more slowing, especially in the goods economy. Perhaps what happened during that October-December window was a soft patch. Even if that was the case, we should still expect second and third order effects to follow along from i… read more...

It's Darkest Before Dawn

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-16 21:03:47:000

It's amusing to us to listen to the pundits/experts shifting their views almost daily staying one step behind the markets. Forbes wrote an article about us on August 14, 1995 titled "Looking Beyond the Valley" in which we discussed our methodology to successfully invest which has been influenc… read more...

Short And Sharp: Short And Shallow, Actually

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 04:17:00:000

By Seema Shah, Global Investment Strategist, Principal Global Investors Typically, when a central bank eases monetary conditions, risk assets rally. Last week, however, global equity markets sank in response to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to extend its forward guidance and ann… read more...

Short And Sharp: Short And Shallow, Actually

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 04:17:00:000

By Seema Shah, Global Investment Strategist, Principal Global Investors Typically, when a central bank eases monetary conditions, risk assets rally. Last week, however, global equity markets sank in response to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to extend its forward guidance and ann… read more...

If I Was Only Allowed One Investment, This Is It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 01:48:50:000

About 25 years ago, I was a fresh-faced graduate trainee at a leading investment bank in London. One day, my parents dragged me along to a garden party organised by some friends. Once there, I was introduced to the global head of the bank's stock trading business, who must have been a mutual… read more...

If I Was Only Allowed One Investment, This Is It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-15 01:48:50:000

About 25 years ago, I was a fresh-faced graduate trainee at a leading investment bank in London. One day, my parents dragged me along to a garden party organised by some friends. Once there, I was introduced to the global head of the bank's stock trading business, who must have been a mutual… read more...

BOTZ: Looks Great In The Window, But Won't Take It Home

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 10:53:25:000

One of the fastest growing types of investing over the last 5 to 10 years has been thematic investing. In particular, I am talking about thematic ETFs. A few weeks ago, I wrote a primer on exchange-traded funds, " What Are Exchange Traded Funds? " In that article, we touched upon the history… read more...

BOTZ: Looks Great In The Window, But Won't Take It Home

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-13 10:53:25:000

One of the fastest growing types of investing over the last 5 to 10 years has been thematic investing. In particular, I am talking about thematic ETFs. A few weeks ago, I wrote a primer on exchange-traded funds, " What Are Exchange Traded Funds? " In that article, we touched upon the history… read more...

Manufacturing And Trade Act As Drags On Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 03:45:00:000

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's monthly PMI overview presentation. Global PMI lifts higher on back of stronger service sector expansion The pace of global economic growth picked up in February from a near two-and-a-half year low at the start of the year, but remained among … read more...

The Trade Numerologist: After Strong 2018, German Exports Threatened By Global Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 02:54:00:000

Perhaps no country risks losing more from the winds of protectionism and tariffs sweeping the world than Germany. The world's fourth-largest economy and the richest in the European Union is heavily dependent on exports, especially of industrial goods that are sensitive to swings in the economi… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-12 01:35:11:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 11, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 22.78% gain, and in second place is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 13.42%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 12.730%. Coming in… read more...

Global Equity Valuations: Are Emerging Markets Really The Cheapest?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-11 21:18:49:000

With all the chatter about recessions and corrections, one could be forgiven for forgetting about one of the key concepts and tools in investing; valuations. Careful study of valuations can help identify relative opportunities, put time on your side, and help you get ahead of major market risk… read more...

Alarm Bells Are Ringing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 22:18:56:000

Aggressive monetary ease may stem the global economic slowdown while boosting the value of financial assets, but we really need widespread structural financial and regulatory reforms, as well as trade deals, to meaningfully re-accelerate global growth. We were not surprised to see the OECD las… read more...

Alarm Bells Are Ringing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-09 22:18:56:000

Aggressive monetary ease may stem the global economic slowdown while boosting the value of financial assets, but we really need widespread structural financial and regulatory reforms, as well as trade deals, to meaningfully re-accelerate global growth. We were not surprised to see the OECD las… read more...

How My 7- And 11-Year-Old Kids Built World-Class ETF Portfolios

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 10:47:15:000

One night last week, I was pleasantly surprised when my kids asked if they could stay up late and buy some ETFs with me. We ended up staying up over an hour past their bedtime running through the ETF screeners, reading factsheet pages, and submitting orders, and I admit it has been one of my p… read more...

How My 7- And 11-Year-Old Kids Built World-Class ETF Portfolios

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-08 10:47:15:000

One night last week, I was pleasantly surprised when my kids asked if they could stay up late and buy some ETFs with me. We ended up staying up over an hour past their bedtime running through the ETF screeners, reading factsheet pages, and submitting orders, and I admit it has been one of my p… read more...

China's Slowdown Is Exposing The Cracks In The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 20:51:59:000

By Claudio Grass The latest numbers released by China's statistics bureau fueled widespread concerns about the outlook of the global economy, as the Asian superpower reported its slowest growth rate since 1990. The figures showed a 6.6% growth for 2018, confirming the view that the growth … read more...

China's Slowdown Is Exposing The Cracks In The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 20:51:59:000

By Claudio Grass The latest numbers released by China's statistics bureau fueled widespread concerns about the outlook of the global economy, as the Asian superpower reported its slowest growth rate since 1990. The figures showed a 6.6% growth for 2018, confirming the view that the growth … read more...

5 Things We Think Could Go Right For Global Markets In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-07 06:20:00:000

By Rob Waldner, Chief Strategist and Head of Multi-Sector on March 5, 2019, in Fixed Income From the Fed, to Brexit, to China, we see positive signs that could support risk assets At Invesco Fixed Income, we often talk about the risks that are likely to upset global markets… read more...

Broken Record

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 21:01:00:000

The OECD has become the latest mainstream economist outfit to relent on growth. Two years ago, they had grown cautiously optimistic as reflation appeared in the back half of 2016. By the middle of 2017, positively giddy barely able to contain their increasingly rabid exc… read more...

Trade Deals And Political Realities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 02:52:00:000

By Bluford Putnam Could the USMCA accord among the US, Canada and Mexico, and a potential US-China trade deal get approval from the Democrats-led House of Representatives? Editors Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more …. read more...

Why Ray Dalio Changed His Recession Prediction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-06 00:30:21:000

In this video we go over a Ray Dalio's latest recession prediction and what it means for the stock market. You can read Ray's full article here . Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Read more … read more...

Why We're Less Worried About A Recession Now That Growth Is Plunging

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-05 21:12:26:000

Originally published February 28, 2019 Starting about 18 months ago I assessed the risk of a recession before the next presidential election to be over 50% because we at Bridgewater calculated that a) the growth spurt would be temporary and fade and b) the Fed's policies in response to the… read more...

To Gauge An Economy's Health, Watch The 'Financial Cycle'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-05 20:43:04:000

By Stefan Hofrichter, CFA, Global Economist at Allianz Global Investors Has the global economy once again become overloaded with debt? More than 10 years on from the financial crisis which was, at its core, a debt crisis there are signs that indebtedness is reaching worri… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 23:16:15:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 4, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 22.81% gain, and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 15.24%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 12.73%. Coming in last is India… read more...

The Wolf Street Report: March 3, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 04:06:39:000

Another Global Financial Crisis, with China at the Epicenter? Anytime an economic slowdown and a housing downturn appear in the scenery, there are questions about the next global financial crisis. That's a bitter aftertaste from the last global financial crisis. But China is somewhat special… read more...

Political Theater

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-03-04 03:38:43:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities Political dramas are coming to a head, but we think this economic cycle still has an act or two to play out. On Wednesday of last week, the U.S. Congress heard Jerome Powell indicate that the Federal Reserve was read… read more...

Global Earnings: Pace Of Downgrades Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-28 04:20:10:000

Originally published Feb 22, 2019 In a welcome development for global equity investors, the pace of 2019 earnings downgrades has eased markedly during the first three weeks of February. Furthermore, while 2019 consensus corporate profits growth has fallen from initial expectations of aroun… read more...

Global Earnings: Pace Of Downgrades Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 23:20:10:000

Originally published Feb 22, 2019 In a welcome development for global equity investors, the pace of 2019 earnings downgrades has eased markedly during the first three weeks of February. Furthermore, while 2019 consensus corporate profits growth has fallen from initial expectations of aroun… read more...

Global Earnings: Pace Of Downgrades Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-27 23:20:10:000

Originally published Feb 22, 2019 In a welcome development for global equity investors, the pace of 2019 earnings downgrades has eased markedly during the first three weeks of February. Furthermore, while 2019 consensus corporate profits growth has fallen from initial expectations of aroun… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 09:32:06:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through February 25, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 20.12% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 15.24%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 11.57%. Coming in last is In… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 09:32:06:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through February 25, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 20.12% gain and in second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 15.24%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 11.57%. Coming in last is In… read more...

Economic Forecast: Asia Will Drive Global Economy In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 05:49:20:000

Asia will drive the global economy in 2019, according to an analysis of 40 major economies based on inflation and GDP growth forecasts by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. The company's analysis categorizes each country by "Low", "Moderate" and "High" GDP growth rate together… read more...

Economic Forecast: Asia Will Drive Global Economy In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 05:49:20:000

Asia will drive the global economy in 2019, according to an analysis of 40 major economies based on inflation and GDP growth forecasts by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. The company's analysis categorizes each country by "Low", "Moderate" and "High" GDP growth rate together… read more...

Not Surprisingly, It Wasn't Italy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 04:57:56:000

It's so obscure now, I actually had to go back and reread what was going on there at the time. On May 29, the mainstream consensus was how Italian populists were screwing up Europe. Global bond markets were supposed to be selling off, massacred as global recovery took hold. Instead, worldwide … read more...

Not Surprisingly, It Wasn't Italy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-26 04:57:56:000

It's so obscure now, I actually had to go back and reread what was going on there at the time. On May 29, the mainstream consensus was how Italian populists were screwing up Europe. Global bond markets were supposed to be selling off, massacred as global recovery took hold. Instead, worldwide … read more...

Good News, Bad News And Walls Of Worry

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-25 05:43:27:000

By Erik Knutzen, Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Class For investors, the mature part of this cycle may feel like the rest of the cycle writ large. The MSCI All Country World Index is up some 250% since the financial crisis. But was there ever a cycle in which investors were mor… read more...

Global Population Decline And Economic Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 09:27:00:000

Rising population was thought to be bad for our standard of living, with classic books such as Limits to Growth and Population Bomb projecting fewer resources per person and environmental collapse. A new book, Empty Planet , makes the forecast that world population will hit a peak and the… read more...

The Week Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 06:08:18:000

After a dismal end of 2018, investors are faring better through the first two-thirds of the Q1 '19. Equity markets have recouped a good part of the late-2018 decline. Bond yields, however, have not returned to where they previously were. The tightening of financial conditions, which was both c… read more...

This Week In Money - February 23, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-24 02:34:36:000

Bob Hoye Gold, stock markets, commodities, credit markets Martin Armstrong World economic outlook, gold, real estate. Eric Hadik Market cycles and human behavior. Larry Reaugh President & CEO of American Manganese Inc. Produc… read more...

The Return To A Gold Exchange Standard

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 02:45:43:000

This article makes the obvious point that a return to a gold standard is the only way nations can contain the interest cost of servicing debt, given the alternative is inflationist policies that can only lead to far higher interest rates and currency destruction. The topic is timely, given th… read more...

The Return To A Gold Exchange Standard

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-22 02:45:43:000

This article makes the obvious point that a return to a gold standard is the only way nations can contain the interest cost of servicing debt, given the alternative is inflationist policies that can only lead to far higher interest rates and currency destruction. The topic is timely, given th… read more...

Global Copper Users Output Index Nears 10-Year Low, Prompting Growth Worries

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 06:03:42:000

Heavy users of copper saw a solid decline in output in January, boding ill for future demand for the metal in coming months. The Global Copper Users PMI Output Index hit a near ten-year low at the start of 2019, indicating a downturn of the scale not seen since the Financial Crisis. This giv… read more...

Slowing Global Growth Likely To Test Risk Appetite

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-21 04:16:11:000

By Philip Lawlor, managing director, head of global market research Fear of US Fed overtightening was a major catalyst behind the global market spasms late last year. The good news is that financial conditions have broadly loosened since then, particularly in the US, bringing relief to ner… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 03:35:10:000

By Jill Mislinski Seven out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through February 19, 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a 12.33% gain and in second is the Shanghai SSE with a gain of 11.78%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 10.75%. Coming … read more...

Diverging Trends: A Look At Earnings Growth Around The World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-20 01:29:12:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop As stocks have posted solid gains so far in 2019, analysts' earnings per share estimates have been falling. That isn't unusual, as analysts are often too optimistic at the start of the year. But, the pace of the decline in estimates has been eye-catching, as you can see… read more...

2 Sides To The U.S. Dollar Story

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-19 02:50:08:000

Where is the U.S. dollar headed after its sizable appreciation in 2018? It depends on your vantage point. The dollar has gained against most developed market ((DM)) currencies, but depreciated against emerging market ((EM)) counterparts so far this year. We see this trend as likely to run on i… read more...

Rozendal Partners Year-End Letter 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 09:20:00:000

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more … read more...

Investment Strategy Outlook February 7, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 04:50:00:000

Read more … read more...

Credit Exhaustion Is Global

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-18 04:24:48:000

Europe is awash in credit exhaustion, and so is China. The signs are everywhere: credit exhaustion is global , and that means the global growth story is over: revenues and profits are all sliding as lending dries up and defaults pile up. What is credit exhaustion? Qualified buyers don'… read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Equity Market Chart Book February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 11:10:00:000

Read more … read more...

This Week In Money - February 16, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 01:36:27:000

Ross Clark Stocks, bonds, dollar and precious metals. Gerald Celente US economy, global slowdown, interest rates. Wolf Richter Subprime auto loans, electric vehicles, and New York. Larry Reaugh President & CEO of American Manganes… read more...

What A Difference A Year Makes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-17 01:01:50:000

The financial markets began last and this year with a bang. However, there are significant differences, both positive and negative, that lead us to believe that this year will end differently than last year. A year ago, investor optimism was at an all-time high with expectations that the glo… read more...

Currencies Threatened By A Credit Crisis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 04:19:41:000

In this article, I draw attention to the similarities between the current economic situation and that of 1929, and the threat to today's unbacked currencies. There is the coincidence of trade protectionism with the top of the credit cycle, and there are the inflationary events that preceded it… read more...

Currencies Threatened By A Credit Crisis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-15 04:19:41:000

In this article, I draw attention to the similarities between the current economic situation and that of 1929, and the threat to today's unbacked currencies. There is the coincidence of trade protectionism with the top of the credit cycle, and there are the inflationary events that preceded it… read more...

The Long View: The Problem With Populism

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 05:35:18:000

By Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd Transcript: This video is the second in a three-part series. Click here to access part one, The Long View: Debt and Demographics. Doug Peebles It's sort of hard to exactly define populism. Oftentimes, populist expectations lean a little b… read more...

Market Outlook: Balanced But Still Biased To Upside

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-14 03:50:10:000

Impact of lower rates, China tax cuts and political progress likely to be evident by mid-2019 Weak incoming data, both in respect of profits forecasts and the global economy, are in sharp contrast to the strong performance of risk assets such as equities and corporate credit during 2019. C… read more...

5 'Swords Of Damocles' Hang Over Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 03:35:42:000

Weekly Market Compass: Several critical deadlines are fast approaching By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist in Market & Economic In Greek mythology, the "sword of Damocles" is a powerful morality tale. King Dionysius is a leader who grows weary of a young sy… read more...

Rate Hikes Off The Table?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-13 03:35:32:000

It is critical to keep in mind that monetary policy changes impact the real economy at a lag of several quarters. So the tightening cycle that ran from December 2015 to December 2018 will continue to dampen global demand over the next several quarters, even if central banks tighten no further … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-12 04:14:48:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through February 4, 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with an 11.99% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 7.96%. In third is the Shanghai SSE with a gain of 7.65%. Coming in last is … read more...

A Practical Guide To Investing Internationally

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 07:38:03:000

Chris discusses the case for international investing through a core-satellite approach with specific countries. Given the strong performance of U.S. stocks in recent years, it is no surprise that investors have some skepticism when it comes to international investing. In fact, behavioral e… read more...

The V In Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-11 03:04:36:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities The equity rally is likely just the start of a volatile adjustment to a new fundamental reality. "Investors who sit out now could miss a chunk of this year's returns." Those were the last words that I wrote in one… read more...

The Real Risks In Today's Global Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 07:41:59:000

By Michael Hasenstab, Ph.D., Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Templeton Global Macro While some observers might worry that the current global economic cycle is ending, Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab characterizes the slowing growth we are experiencing as a… read more...

This Week In Money - February 9, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 01:52:44:000

Ross Clark - Oil, copper, markets. Marc Faber - China, US, trade, global economy. Ed Steer - Manipulation of gold and silver prices. Physical gold vs. paper gold. Larry Reaugh - President & CEO of American Manganese Inc. Produced by HoweStreet.com … read more...

Call To Action

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-10 01:27:35:000

The global economies are in a synchronous slowdown. Unfortunately, there is not much more that the BOJ, Bank of China, ECB, Fed and all other major monetary bodies can do at this point. Interest rates are low, and we are not suffering from a lack of money or liquidity. While all of this may … read more...

Cushioning The Blow: Key Factors That Could Smooth The Road Ahead For The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-09 02:47:12:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed recent headlines over the global economic slowdown, the shift to a more dovish stance among many central banks and market impacts of the ongoing trade nego… read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Business Cycle Chart Book February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 09:25:00:000

Read more … read more...

Merk Research: U.S. Business Cycle Chart Book February 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 09:25:00:000

Read more … read more...

Global Recession Risks Right Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 04:53:22:000

Germany is a tough one to get around. Argentina falls into a bad recession, you can get by believing that's not particularly unusual or interesting. If its neighbor Brazil becomes shaky, you can still chalk it up to EM volatility. Italy is Europe's perpetual basket case. China's a little more … read more...

Global Recession Risks Right Now

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 04:53:22:000

Germany is a tough one to get around. Argentina falls into a bad recession, you can get by believing that's not particularly unusual or interesting. If its neighbor Brazil becomes shaky, you can still chalk it up to EM volatility. Italy is Europe's perpetual basket case. China's a little more … read more...

Global Earnings Revisions Still On A Downward Trend

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 04:24:11:000

Equities bridging a gap in corporate performance - for now Consensus profits forecasts on a global basis remain on a downward trend even as January's recovery in risk assets such as equities and corporate debt continues into February. The primary reason for this at first sight paradoxical … read more...

Global Earnings Revisions Still On A Downward Trend

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 04:24:11:000

Equities bridging a gap in corporate performance - for now Consensus profits forecasts on a global basis remain on a downward trend even as January's recovery in risk assets such as equities and corporate debt continues into February. The primary reason for this at first sight paradoxical … read more...

Geopolitics Update: Key Themes For 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 04:04:34:000

Geopolitical headlines infiltrate news feeds on a daily, if not hourly, basis. The challenge? Separating the signal from the noise - identifying what matters and what's coming next. In the first of our regular series on geopolitics, Tom Donilon, Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Instit… read more...

Geopolitics Update: Key Themes For 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-07 04:04:34:000

Geopolitical headlines infiltrate news feeds on a daily, if not hourly, basis. The challenge? Separating the signal from the noise - identifying what matters and what's coming next. In the first of our regular series on geopolitics, Tom Donilon, Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Instit… read more...

The Coming Global Financial Crisis: Debt Exhaustion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-06 01:43:31:000

The global economy is way past the point of maximum debt saturation, and so the next stop is debt exhaustion. Just as generals fight the last war, central banks always fight the last financial crisis. The Global Financial Crisis ((GFC)) of 2008-09 was primarily one of liquidity as market… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-05 03:32:03:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through February 4, 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with an 11.38% gain, and in second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 8.56%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 6.63%. Coming… read more...

Why Global Growth Will Likely Slow In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 07:08:20:000

By Elga Bartsch, PhD Elga explains why we see a synchronized global slowdown ahead in 2019 and what this means for central bank policies. We see a synchronized global slowdown ahead in 2019 as the U.S. economy becomes a drag rather than a driver. The U.S. slowdown reflects, in part, … read more...

The Wolf Street Report: February 3, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-04 06:31:46:000

Is this the Beginning of a Globalized Housing Downturn? Housing has become a global financialized asset class. The possibilities seemed unlimited. And this flow of money, along with local factors, has created enormous distortions in some markets. But the priciest markets are now starting t… read more...

This Week In Money - February 2 , 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-02-03 02:20:01:000

Ross Clark Precious metals, US dollar, Canadian dollar Anthony Scaramucci Markets, uptick rule, international trade. Victor Adair Global economy, crude oil . Larry Reaugh President & CEO of American Manganese Inc. Simon Dya… read more...

Will The Fed's Capitulation Come Back To Sack Investor Portfolios?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 08:55:08:000

In December of 2007, I offered readers insight into a predictive model for recessions . Shortly thereafter, in the first week of January (2008), Investor's Business Daily highlighted my five-point model and its 80% probability of economic contraction. One of the key components of the model … read more...

Will The Fed's Capitulation Come Back To Sack Investor Portfolios?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 08:55:08:000

In December of 2007, I offered readers insight into a predictive model for recessions . Shortly thereafter, in the first week of January (2008), Investor's Business Daily highlighted my five-point model and its 80% probability of economic contraction. One of the key components of the model … read more...

Will The Fed's Capitulation Come Back To Sack Investor Portfolios?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-31 08:55:08:000

In December of 2007, I offered readers insight into a predictive model for recessions . Shortly thereafter, in the first week of January (2008), Investor's Business Daily highlighted my five-point model and its 80% probability of economic contraction. One of the key components of the model … read more...

Macro Ops Podcast: Macro Ops Monthly Intelligence Report, Dollar, Tesla And Birds With Alex Barrow

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 05:23:09:000

Chris sits down and chats with Macro-Ops Co-Founder Alex Barrow. This one goes deep! If you are looking for an abridged version of the Monthly Intelligence Report, this isnt it. If you want to download Alexs views on the markets into your brain operating group, this is the ep… read more...

Where Is The Value?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-30 04:18:59:000

Investors always want to know what's cheap - cheap relative to the opportunity set and relative to history. Cheapness could refer to any number of things - price relative to trailing twelve months earnings, to trailing earnings over multiple years, to analyst earnings estimates, to long-run pr… read more...

Global Markets: 8 Issues To Watch This Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 20:30:54:000

Originally published January 28, 2019 Weekly Market Compass: Key votes and critical data releases could influence the markets as January ends By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Jan 28, 2019, in Market & Economic Last week was momentous as experts… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-29 03:01:26:000

By Jill Mislinski Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 28, 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a 9.74% gain, and in second place is Germany's DAXK with a gain of 5.96%. In third place is Shanghai's SSE with a gain of 5.34%. Coming in… read more...

The Stars Are Aligning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 03:45:17:000

Events of the week support our view that global economic growth may indeed accelerate later in the year as the BOJ, Bank of China, ECB and the Fed pushed panic buttons responding to deteriorating growth and weak inflation. Simultaneously, we expect trade negotiations to heat up with some resol… read more...

The Stars Are Aligning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-27 03:45:17:000

Events of the week support our view that global economic growth may indeed accelerate later in the year as the BOJ, Bank of China, ECB and the Fed pushed panic buttons responding to deteriorating growth and weak inflation. Simultaneously, we expect trade negotiations to heat up with some resol… read more...

Is A Global Economic Cooldown Brewing?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-26 08:04:11:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Quantitative Investment Strategy Analyst Dr. Kara Ng and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed the recent slowdown in global growth, impacts of the five-week partial U.S. government shutdown, and the effects of go… read more...

Markets Grapple With Government Dysfunction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 01:01:05:000

Weekly Market Compass: Geopolitics threaten to drag down economic growth By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist in Market & Economic Last week saw government dysfunction on full display in several different countries. While politicians in the UK and US cont… read more...

Markets Grapple With Government Dysfunction

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-24 01:01:05:000

Weekly Market Compass: Geopolitics threaten to drag down economic growth By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist in Market & Economic Last week saw government dysfunction on full display in several different countries. While politicians in the UK and US cont… read more...

3 Insights For Investors From Davos

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 19:05:06:000

By Philipp Hildebrand Globalization 4.0 is the theme of this weeks 2019 World Economic Forum. Philipp shares three insights for investors from BlackRocks discussions in Davos. The 2019 World Economic Forum this week in Davos, Switzerland focuses on the t… read more...

3 Insights For Investors From Davos

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 19:05:06:000

By Philipp Hildebrand Globalization 4.0 is the theme of this weeks 2019 World Economic Forum. Philipp shares three insights for investors from BlackRocks discussions in Davos. The 2019 World Economic Forum this week in Davos, Switzerland focuses on the t… read more...

3 Insights For Investors From Davos

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 19:05:06:000

By Philipp Hildebrand Globalization 4.0 is the theme of this weeks 2019 World Economic Forum. Philipp shares three insights for investors from BlackRocks discussions in Davos. The 2019 World Economic Forum this week in Davos, Switzerland focuses on the t… read more...

Tax War: Will Global Competition To Lower Taxes Lift Growth?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-23 02:09:53:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop The "trade war" may be last year's news; a "tax war" may be getting underway this year. Competition to lower corporate tax rates around the world this year may help to support slowing global economic and earnings growth, potentially offsetting some of the drag from last… read more...

Are Global Stocks Divorced From Reality?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-22 09:11:10:000

By Mark Phelps and Dev Chakrabarti Equities declined around the world in 2018, and valuations fell sharply. The risks are clearly significant - but have stocks fallen too far? With earnings still expected to advance this year, we think selective investors can find attractive entry points. … read more...

A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 09:24:45:000

By Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research of the International Monetary Fund ((IMF)) While global growth in 2018 remained close to post-crisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. This update of the World Econom… read more...

A Shaky Start To The New Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 04:24:12:000

Original Post By Stuart Burns It is not just the stock market that is having a wobble - firms are asking if now is the right time to be investing in new capacity or raising production. 2018 was a stellar year for the U.S. jobs market, but recent figures suggest part of that may hav… read more...

The Wolf Street Report: January 20, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 04:17:07:000

And This Isn't Even a Global Recession Yet. Auto sales plunged in China over the past four months. What was particularly disconcerting was the sharp deterioration at the end of the year in other markets, not just China. Each market has its own problems, but they're sure coming together a… read more...

Head Fake?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-21 03:45:00:000

Its been a choppy start to the year, but last weeks price action added to the evidence that the bulls have regained control, at least temporarily. The MSCI World and [[HYG]] US equity are now about 8% and 5% higher, respectively, from their lows in December, and treasury yields… read more...

The Global Economy: Rising Recession Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 07:58:54:000

The danger of a global economic downturn has risen, but the probability of a recession in 2019 is still low. After a brief spurt in 2017 and 2018, growth in the G7 economies is reverting to trend, and emerging markets are unlikely to come to the rescue. This process is likely to be delayed in … read more...

Populism Is Alive And Well: What's The Big-Picture Impact?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 07:41:08:000

By Guy Bruten It's been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead - influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies… read more...

This Week In Money - January 19, 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-20 02:59:29:000

Ross Clark Stock markets, gold, crude oil, Canadian dollar. Rick Rule Gold, silver, his biggest win. Wolf Richter - Automotive sector, global slowdown, US dollar. Larry Reaugh - President & CEO of American Manganese Inc. Jim Pettit … read more...

10 Charts To Watch In 2019 For Multi-Asset Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 18:24:30:000

I spent a lot of time in the 2018 End of Year Special Edition looking back across the year, covering some of my best charts and calls (and some of the worst !). But this article provides a look at the most important part of that report… As interesting and sometimes even amusing as it ... read more...

10 Charts To Watch In 2019 For Multi-Asset Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 18:24:30:000

I spent a lot of time in the 2018 End of Year Special Edition looking back across the year, covering some of my best charts and calls (and some of the worst !). But this article provides a look at the most important part of that report… As interesting and sometimes even amusing as it ... read more...

A World Of Debt - Where Are The Risks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 04:41:07:000

Since the financial crisis of 2008/2009, global debt has increased to reach a new all-time high. This trend has been documented before in articles such as the 2014 paper from the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies Deleveraging? What deleveraging? The IMF has als… read more...

A World Of Debt - Where Are The Risks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-18 04:41:07:000

Since the financial crisis of 2008/2009, global debt has increased to reach a new all-time high. This trend has been documented before in articles such as the 2014 paper from the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies Deleveraging? What deleveraging? The IMF has als… read more...

The Few, The Proud, The Outperformers

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-17 04:28:14:000

As risks of a global slowdown have broadly mounted, we have highlighted the standout performance of the US relative to the rest of the world. As we show in our Global Macro Dashboard (subscription required) published on Wednesday morning, including the United States, there are only five nati… read more...

What Will It Take To Trade Places In 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-16 05:35:00:000

By Stephen S. Smith, Managing Director & Portfolio Manager and Brian L. Giuliano, CFA, Vice President, Portfolio Management Late last year, we proposed the idea of the U.S. trading places with the global economy in 2019. We explain why global growth decoupled from the U.S. last year, a… read more...

2019 Global Economic Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 05:31:10:000

Transcript: Jeff Kleintop: Global growth may slow in 2019 as worsening financial conditions combine with full employment and rising prices. Global stocks may peak sometime in 2019 if global economic indicators signal the gathering clouds of a global recession. For all the concerns abo… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-15 02:20:49:000

By Jill Mislinski One of eight indexes on our world watch list posted a loss in the first week of 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a 4.65% gain, and in second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.89%. In third place is Shanghai's SSE with a gain of 2.86%. Comi… read more...

Global X SuperDividend ETF: Still Not Super

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 17:45:19:000

If there is one constant in investing, it is that less astute investors will be drawn to "sexy" investment ideas. For equity investors these ideas may the story of some penny stock which is poised to grow from $.05 to $10 per share, or perhaps a new ETF targeting some exotic sector which retai… read more...

Global X SuperDividend ETF: Still Not Super

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-13 17:45:19:000

If there is one constant in investing, it is that less astute investors will be drawn to "sexy" investment ideas. For equity investors these ideas may the story of some penny stock which is poised to grow from $.05 to $10 per share, or perhaps a new ETF targeting some exotic sector which retai… read more...

Stocks Are Cheap(ish)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 07:20:23:000

With the exception of a few, hardy centenarian traders, nobody has ever witnessed a December like the one that just ended. A difficult year ended with a collapse in equities as investors began to discount a growing possibility of an economic slowdown. Globally stocks fell roughly 8%, leaving e… read more...

Stocks Are Cheap(ish)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 07:20:23:000

With the exception of a few, hardy centenarian traders, nobody has ever witnessed a December like the one that just ended. A difficult year ended with a collapse in equities as investors began to discount a growing possibility of an economic slowdown. Globally stocks fell roughly 8%, leaving e… read more...

Stocks Are Cheap(ish)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 07:20:23:000

With the exception of a few, hardy centenarian traders, nobody has ever witnessed a December like the one that just ended. A difficult year ended with a collapse in equities as investors began to discount a growing possibility of an economic slowdown. Globally stocks fell roughly 8%, leaving e… read more...

Are Fed Rate Hikes Still On The Table For 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 01:49:14:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed the recent downtick in business confidence, the likelihood of a pause in interest-rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) … read more...

Are Fed Rate Hikes Still On The Table For 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 01:49:14:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed the recent downtick in business confidence, the likelihood of a pause in interest-rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) … read more...

Are Fed Rate Hikes Still On The Table For 2019?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-12 01:49:14:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed the recent downtick in business confidence, the likelihood of a pause in interest-rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) … read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 06:38:56:000

Danielle was a guest with Kerry Lutz on The Financial Survival Network talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here. As mentioned in this discussion, here is a link to my article A word to the gold bugs. … read more...

2019: Stormy Markets Ahead?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-11 02:30:25:000

Market volatility has spiked as global trade tensions and recession fears mount. Kim Parlee speaks with Michael O'Brien, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at TD Asset Management, about the key headwinds markets will face in Read more … read more...

Weekly Edge: Global Growth Poised To Slow, Not Stop

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 06:20:09:000

By Troy Tanzy Co-authored by Daniel Poppe Twice a year, the World Bank releases estimates of how fast it expects the global economy to grow in the near term. In June 2018, the institution expected the global economy to grow by 3.1% in 2018. This month, it stated that the global economy… read more...

Highly Coupled Global Growth Engines Slowing All Together

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 04:21:36:000

As shown below, German industrial activity fell for a third month in November 2018 and raised the risk that Europe's largest economy is slipping into recession. See : Trade hopes trump dismal German data for European equities. At the same time, the Chinese economy - the world's second large… read more...

Diego Parrilla On The Perpetual Search For Extreme Optionality

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 03:46:56:000

Diego Parrilla has been eerily prescient in calling major turning points in a variety of markets over the past several years. Back in 2014, he published The Energy World Is Flat , in which he detailed the coming crash in the price of crude oil and the various dynamics that would ensure such a… read more...

...And Get Bigger

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-10 02:56:08:000

Just as there is gradation for positive numbers, there is color to negative ones, too. On the plus side, consistently small increments marked by the infrequent jump is never to be associated with a healthy economy let alone one that is booming. A truly booming economy is one in which the small… read more...

Fixed-Income Outlook: 3 Themes We're Watching In 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 17:40:16:000

By Douglas J. Peebles We began 2018 expecting a rough ride - and we got it. Global growth was strong in the first half of 2018 but eased in the second half. More importantly for investors, the era of easy money was ending, and with it came a likely end to the nearly uninterrupted rise in… read more...

The Gods Of The Copybook Headings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 08:26:24:000

The greatest market threats for 2019 are mostly political ones: The Democrats trying to impeach President Trump and causing market havoc. The Fed keeps on raising interest rates and the American economy grinds to a halt. A "Hard Brexit." "Brexit" leading to an implosion in the Britis… read more...

How Did My Asset Allocation Perform In 2018?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-09 04:28:58:000

Last year was a difficult one for investors. Every major asset class lost money, meaning there were few places to hide. This is relatively unusual. Glancing down the list of regional and country stock indices provided by MSCI, its clear that stocks got hammered in 2018. Below is a su… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-08 04:26:44:000

By Jill Mislinski One of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains in the first week of 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a 2.81% gain, and in second place is Shanghai's SSE with a gain of 2.75%. In third place is Germany's DAXK with a gain of 1.58%. Coming in … read more...

2018 Market Commentary And 2019 Outlook - Vigilante No More

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 22:03:37:000

Data Source: Bloomberg 2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Outlook - Vigilante No More Source: istockphoto.com Note to readers: We have sectioned the 2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Outlook accordingly: 1. Big picture outlook and key issues heading into 2019 2. Su… read more...

2018 Market Commentary And 2019 Outlook - Vigilante No More

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 22:03:37:000

Data Source: Bloomberg 2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Outlook - Vigilante No More Source: istockphoto.com Note to readers: We have sectioned the 2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Outlook accordingly: 1. Big picture outlook and key issues heading into 2019 2. Su… read more...

2018 Market Commentary And 2019 Outlook - Vigilante No More

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-04 22:03:37:000

Data Source: Bloomberg 2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Outlook - Vigilante No More Source: istockphoto.com Note to readers: We have sectioned the 2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Outlook accordingly: 1. Big picture outlook and key issues heading into 2019 2. Su… read more...

Global Equities: 2018 Review, 2019 Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-03 07:08:43:000

By Sharon Fay Transcript: If you go back to the beginning of the year, we were in a period of synchronized global economic growth. That was going to support earnings growth. And here in the US, we were going to have an extra kicker from the tax cuts. So, I think we went into the y… read more...

Global Equities: 2018 Review, 2019 Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-03 07:08:43:000

By Sharon Fay Transcript: If you go back to the beginning of the year, we were in a period of synchronized global economic growth. That was going to support earnings growth. And here in the US, we were going to have an extra kicker from the tax cuts. So, I think we went into the y… read more...

Our Best Charts And Calls Of 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-03 00:12:02:000

Last week, we published the 2018 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report - a summary of some of the best, worst, and most notable charts of 2018 (and the ones to watch in 2019). This article brings you a look at what I think is one of the most important sections of the … read more...

Our Best Charts And Calls Of 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-03 00:12:02:000

Last week, we published the 2018 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report - a summary of some of the best, worst, and most notable charts of 2018 (and the ones to watch in 2019). This article brings you a look at what I think is one of the most important sections of the … read more...

World Markets Update: 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2019-01-02 01:54:46:000

By Jill Mislinski Only one of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains in 2018. The top performer this year was India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 6.67%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a loss of 6.24%. In fourth is the Nikkei 225 with a loss of 12.08%. Coming in last is Sha… read more...

The Long Pause

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-30 06:53:41:000

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the 9th time this month, bringing the Fed Funds Rate up to a range of 2.25%-2.50%. The move should have surprised no one, as the bond market was pricing it in for some time. Over the past 3 years, at every FOMC meeting where the market expected a … read more...

The Long Pause

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-30 06:53:41:000

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the 9th time this month, bringing the Fed Funds Rate up to a range of 2.25%-2.50%. The move should have surprised no one, as the bond market was pricing it in for some time. Over the past 3 years, at every FOMC meeting where the market expected a … read more...

The Long Pause

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-30 06:53:41:000

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the 9th time this month, bringing the Fed Funds Rate up to a range of 2.25%-2.50%. The move should have surprised no one, as the bond market was pricing it in for some time. Over the past 3 years, at every FOMC meeting where the market expected a … read more...

Stocks Gone Wild: Welcome To The Volatility Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 11:10:34:000

Some of us, investors and analysts, might be young enough to have only heard and read about erratic behavior in the markets. After nearly 10 full years of a largely seamless and paced march forward, we seem to have finally entered a new cycle in the world of stocks: One of intense volatility, … read more...

Stocks Gone Wild: Welcome To The Volatility Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 11:10:34:000

Some of us, investors and analysts, might be young enough to have only heard and read about erratic behavior in the markets. After nearly 10 full years of a largely seamless and paced march forward, we seem to have finally entered a new cycle in the world of stocks: One of intense volatility, … read more...

Stocks Gone Wild: Welcome To The Volatility Cycle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 11:10:34:000

Some of us, investors and analysts, might be young enough to have only heard and read about erratic behavior in the markets. After nearly 10 full years of a largely seamless and paced march forward, we seem to have finally entered a new cycle in the world of stocks: One of intense volatility, … read more...

What 'Global Growth Slowdown'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 03:05:03:000

B y Gary Alexander the only thing we have to fear is fear itselfnameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror. FDR, 1933. We are suffering through the sixth correction of 10% or more in the nearly-10-year history of this bull market. The last corre… read more...

What 'Global Growth Slowdown'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 03:05:03:000

B y Gary Alexander the only thing we have to fear is fear itselfnameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror. FDR, 1933. We are suffering through the sixth correction of 10% or more in the nearly-10-year history of this bull market. The last corre… read more...

What 'Global Growth Slowdown'?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-27 03:05:03:000

B y Gary Alexander the only thing we have to fear is fear itselfnameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror. FDR, 1933. We are suffering through the sixth correction of 10% or more in the nearly-10-year history of this bull market. The last corre… read more...

Is It Time For Small-Cap Stocks Overseas To Shine?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 05:21:46:000

By Ed Lugo, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Franklin Equity Group As global markets increasingly ponder how long US economic growth can continue, Franklin Equity Group's Ed Lugo says he's looking for potential investment opportunities outside the United States. He explains why … read more...

Is It Time For Small-Cap Stocks Overseas To Shine?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 05:21:46:000

By Ed Lugo, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Franklin Equity Group As global markets increasingly ponder how long US economic growth can continue, Franklin Equity Group's Ed Lugo says he's looking for potential investment opportunities outside the United States. He explains why … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 05:16:47:000

By Jill Mislinski Only one of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, December 24, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 4.90%. In second place is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 11.42%. In third place is our own S&P 50… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-25 05:16:47:000

By Jill Mislinski Only one of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, December 24, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 4.90%. In second place is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 11.42%. In third place is our own S&P 50… read more...

Merry Christmas And Some Charts To Keep You Warm

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-24 02:05:00:000

If you just want my views on the increasingly unruly price action in the equity market, scroll down to the bottom of this post, and you will find the PDF. Now that I have your attention, though, allow me to wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Thanks for reading, and for the commen… read more...

International Economic Week In Review For December 17-21

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-23 11:49:48:000

The Reserve Bank of Australia released the latest batch of meeting minutes , which contained the following assessment of the global economy (emphasis added): However, growth in a number of economies had slowed this year; softer external demand, at least partly related to trade tensions an… read more...

Bear Market Bound: A Market Idyl

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-21 10:40:51:000

The sun that brief December day Rose cheerless over hills of gray, And, darkly circled, gave at noon A sadder light than waning moon. Slow tracing down the thickening sky Its mute and ominous prophecy, A portent seeming less than threat, It sank from… read more...

Bear Market Bound: A Market Idyl

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-21 10:40:51:000

The sun that brief December day Rose cheerless over hills of gray, And, darkly circled, gave at noon A sadder light than waning moon. Slow tracing down the thickening sky Its mute and ominous prophecy, A portent seeming less than threat, It sank from… read more...

5 Charts That Explain The Global Economy In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-21 08:17:07:000

By Oya Celasun, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division, IMF's Research Department; Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Deputy Director, IMF's Research Department; and Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research at IMF The global economy started 2018 on an upbeat note, buoy… read more...

5 Charts That Explain The Global Economy In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-21 08:17:07:000

By Oya Celasun, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division, IMF's Research Department; Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Deputy Director, IMF's Research Department; and Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research at IMF The global economy started 2018 on an upbeat note, buoy… read more...

Does The Fed Want To Tank The Market?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-20 16:05:37:000

If Jerome Powell was hoping his mild dovishness would help boost the market, boy was he in for a fun ride. Guess at which point the news of the hike was announced? QQQ Price data by YCharts The market tanked in spite of the dialing down of rate hike expectations for next year. Sourc… read more...

The Fed Rate Decision Is A Tipping Point For The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-19 01:15:59:000

The world is at a crossroads We are at a juncture for the world economy, and for many reasons. To start, we are dealing with a severe tightening of financial conditions. Its not just interest rate tightening, we are also in the process of a liquidity tightening, and together, these… read more...

3 Factors Supporting Emerging Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-18 15:28:16:000

It may seem like a poor environment for EM stocks, but they outperformed in the recent volatility. Russ explains why. Global stocks are testing the fall lows, the VIX is over 25 and oil continues to collapse - not the ideal environment for emerging market ((EM)) stocks. Yet, while EM equit… read more...

Paws For Effect

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-17 09:50:00:000

Investors fret about various things. Today, up, front and center are the trade war and the yield curve. We gave our take on the resounding failure of the administration's policies on the trade front and think a complete capitulation is a matter of time. On the other hand, the yield curve i… read more...

International Economic Week In Review For December 10-14

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-16 09:18:44:000

China is now the second largest economy in the world. Unfortunately, it's slowing . Retail sales grew 8.1% Y/Y. But the multi-year trend continues lower: Industrial production is slow and weakening: According to the NY Times , other statistics are weaker [emphasis added]: But beneat… read more...

Top 10 Economic Predictions For 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-16 07:44:14:000

The global economy started 2018 with strong, synchronized growth, but the momentum faded as the year progressed and growth trends diverged. Notably, the economies of the eurozone, the United Kingdom, Japan, and China began to weaken. In contrast, the US economy accelerated, thanks to fiscal st… read more...

S&P 500 Technical Analysis - A Cyclical Bear Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 15:55:39:000

The major US equity indices probably entered a bear market during autumn 2018. Descriptive statistics show that the current cycle is at the very long end in comparison to what the US economy witnessed during the past 150 years. Moreover, a longer-term technical analysis perspective suggests … read more...

S&P 500 Technical Analysis - A Cyclical Bear Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 15:55:39:000

The major US equity indices probably entered a bear market during autumn 2018. Descriptive statistics show that the current cycle is at the very long end in comparison to what the US economy witnessed during the past 150 years. Moreover, a longer-term technical analysis perspective suggests … read more...

Debt Bombs Ticking Across The Globe

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 10:16:38:000

There are times when writing from the macro perspective can be challenging, particularly when macro takes a backseat as it is prone to do during parts of the business cycle. This year macro is back with a bang. JPMorgan recently assessed the chance of a recession in 2019 has risen to 35% f… read more...

Debt Bombs Ticking Across The Globe

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 10:16:38:000

There are times when writing from the macro perspective can be challenging, particularly when macro takes a backseat as it is prone to do during parts of the business cycle. This year macro is back with a bang. JPMorgan recently assessed the chance of a recession in 2019 has risen to 35% f… read more...

Citi says `buy the dip' in global equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 09:28:52:000

Global stock markets are more pessimistic about 2019 corporate earnings than analysts are, Citigroup strategists write in a note. That means there's an opportunity to "buy the dip" in global equities, they say. More news on: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, iShares MSCI ACWI ETF, Cambria … read more...

Citi says `buy the dip' in global equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-14 09:28:52:000

Global stock markets are more pessimistic about 2019 corporate earnings than analysts are, Citigroup strategists write in a note. That means there's an opportunity to "buy the dip" in global equities, they say. More news on: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, iShares MSCI ACWI ETF, Cambria … read more...

Has Global Recession Already Begun?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-12 06:17:20:000

JEFF KLEINTOP: Some investors are asking, 'Has a global recession already begun?' We've seen a big plunge in oil prices in the last couple of months, and two major countries saw their economies shrink in the third quarter, and that may be causing the markets to price in the start of a glo… read more...

Has Global Recession Already Begun?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-12 06:17:20:000

JEFF KLEINTOP: Some investors are asking, 'Has a global recession already begun?' We've seen a big plunge in oil prices in the last couple of months, and two major countries saw their economies shrink in the third quarter, and that may be causing the markets to price in the start of a glo… read more...

Jeffrey Gundlach: Global Growth Is Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-12 05:00:00:000

Original Post Jeffrey Gundlach's DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund webcast for the month of December 2018, discussing the how the global growth is slowing. TAB I - Global Economy "Scared sick looking at it" - Ernest Hemingway MSCI ACWI and Central Banks Source: Bloomberg, D… read more...

Jeffrey Gundlach: Global Growth Is Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-12 05:00:00:000

Original Post Jeffrey Gundlach's DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund webcast for the month of December 2018, discussing the how the global growth is slowing. TAB I - Global Economy "Scared sick looking at it" - Ernest Hemingway MSCI ACWI and Central Banks Source: Bloomberg, D… read more...

Putting The Sell-Off In Perspective

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-12 01:50:34:000

Originally Published December 10, 2018 Despite the recent bad news, I am more positive today than I was earlier in the year By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist in Market & Economic Last week saw major swoons in the stock market and the US Treasuries. As… read more...

Putting The Sell-Off In Perspective

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-12 01:50:34:000

Originally Published December 10, 2018 Despite the recent bad news, I am more positive today than I was earlier in the year By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist in Market & Economic Last week saw major swoons in the stock market and the US Treasuries. As… read more...

2019 Market Outlook: Global Stocks And Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-10 13:31:18:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop Key Points Global growth is likely to slow as the economic cycle nears a peak. Trade tensions, inflation and interest rates are key indicators to watch as financial conditions tighten and act as a drag on markets and the economy. Watch the gap between unemployment… read more...

Global PMI Lifts Further From 2-Year Low But Outlook Blighted By Weak Order Books

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-10 08:23:45:000

Global business activity grew at a marginally improved pace for a second successive month in November, albeit continuing to expand at one of the weakest rates seen over the past two years. Growth is also likely to soften again in coming months: sentiment about the year ahead and inflows of new… read more...

Why Trump Is Losing The Trade War And What That Means For Investing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-09 20:48:10:000

The S&P 500 ( SPY ) had one of its worst weeks in December in the last 70 years. SPY Price data by YCharts While the Trump-Xi dinner went as planned, the rally proved to be a big head fake and the selloff deepened, putting all indices heavily into the red. What ails the market … read more...

Populism: Get Used To It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-09 11:24:55:000

By Darren Williams Transcript We think populism is here to stay and that it will be a persistent part of the investment backdrop for many years to come. What populism, in particular what the trade tension that we've seen over the last year, does is to alter the mix or the trade-of… read more...

Markets Sell Off. Overdone Or More To Come?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 12:14:16:000

Market volatility resumes after US-China trade truce was announced at G20 Summit. Is this just short-term gyration or part of a longer downward trend? Kim Parlee talks with Michael Craig, Senior Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Read more … read more...

Markets Sell Off. Overdone Or More To Come?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 12:14:16:000

Market volatility resumes after US-China trade truce was announced at G20 Summit. Is this just short-term gyration or part of a longer downward trend? Kim Parlee talks with Michael Craig, Senior Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Read more … read more...

Markets Sell Off. Overdone Or More To Come?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 12:14:16:000

Market volatility resumes after US-China trade truce was announced at G20 Summit. Is this just short-term gyration or part of a longer downward trend? Kim Parlee talks with Michael Craig, Senior Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Read more … read more...

2019 Global Market Outlook: The Late-Late Cycle Show

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 09:50:24:000

Synopsis U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy's budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018's volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some up… read more...

2019 Global Market Outlook: The Late-Late Cycle Show

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 09:50:24:000

Synopsis U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy's budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018's volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some up… read more...

2019 Global Market Outlook: The Late-Late Cycle Show

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 09:50:24:000

Synopsis U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy's budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018's volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some up… read more...

Doug Noland: The Global Bubble Has Been Pierced

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 06:27:17:000

Read more … read more...

Doug Noland: The Global Bubble Has Been Pierced

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 06:27:17:000

Read more … read more...

Doug Noland: The Global Bubble Has Been Pierced

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-06 06:27:17:000

Read more … read more...

Global Investment Outlook 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-05 14:39:56:000

Cautiously Optimistic Heading Into 2019 Despite the latest escalation in trade tensions and political vulnerabilities in Europe, the narrative of a synchronized global expansion remains firmly intact, while the accommodative monetary and fiscal impulse should allow the expansion to continue … read more...

Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Part II

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-05 10:12:23:000

The continued efforts of our research team to identify and quantify the possibility that the capital shift which has taken place over the past 18+ months may be shifting to other assets is in the interest of all global investors. Is there a new, more opportunistic investment that will take awa… read more...

Global Manufacturing PMI Holds At 2 Year Low As World Exports Fall For Third Month Running

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-05 08:44:02:000

Global manufacturing growth was unchanged from October's 23-month low in November. Exports fell for a third month in a row and the number of countries reporting a deterioration of business conditions rose to the highest since 2016. In a sign that growth may slow further, optimism about the y… read more...

Stocks Drop On Renewed Trade, Economic Fears

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-05 03:56:10:000

Stock markets were shaken on Tuesday as doubts grew over the U.S.-China trade truce and the Treasury yield curve flattened sharply, a development that can sometimes be an indicator of future recession. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 6.71% from its peak in early Oc… read more...

U.S.-China Ceasefire: Reasonable Outcome For Markets, Brief Respite For Economies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-04 03:28:43:000

No new tariffs for three months At the 2018 G-20 Buenos Aires summit that concluded last weekend in Argentina, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose any new tariffs for three months to allow negotiations to continue at the technocrat level. This ce… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Armistice Day

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-03 13:58:27:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:57 PM EST A temporary hold has been placed in the ongoing trade saga, and while off their highs, US equities ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) are taking this time to partake of some holiday cheer. The cease will last for ninety days. Global shares are enjoying a b… read more...

December Decisions, What Lies Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-12-02 08:14:35:000

By Stephen Innes A quick run through what I think will be the critical trading events in December. With all the noise in the markets, it's easy to get disoriented, but for me, given that crude oil prices are a reliable barometer for the health of the global economy and since it's conceivab… read more...

Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Part 1

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-30 06:05:44:000

Our researchers spent a good portion of the holiday weekend researching a continued capital shift that is taking place in the US equities markets and throughout the global market. Over the past 20+ months, a massive capital shift has taken place where investment capital fled weaker global econ… read more...

Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Part 1

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-30 06:05:44:000

Our researchers spent a good portion of the holiday weekend researching a continued capital shift that is taking place in the US equities markets and throughout the global market. Over the past 20+ months, a massive capital shift has taken place where investment capital fled weaker global econ… read more...

G20 And The Financial War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-30 04:46:53:000

This weekend, the G20 nations meet at Buenos Aires. The most important issue will be America's use of trade policy, ostensibly to bring an end to China's unfair trade practices. Rather, it could mark a significant milestone in the cold war against China and drive the global economy into a sl… read more...

G20 And The Financial War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-30 04:46:53:000

This weekend, the G20 nations meet at Buenos Aires. The most important issue will be America's use of trade policy, ostensibly to bring an end to China's unfair trade practices. Rather, it could mark a significant milestone in the cold war against China and drive the global economy into a sl… read more...

New Currents For Shifting Wealth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-30 03:12:06:000

The 2019 OECD Perspectives on Global Development ((PGD)) has been released in Incheon, Korea. Since its inception in 2010, the OECD Development Centre's PGD series has investigated the increasing economic weight of developing countries in the world economy, a phenomenon referred to as "shift… read more...

New Currents For Shifting Wealth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-30 03:12:06:000

The 2019 OECD Perspectives on Global Development ((PGD)) has been released in Incheon, Korea. Since its inception in 2010, the OECD Development Centre's PGD series has investigated the increasing economic weight of developing countries in the world economy, a phenomenon referred to as "shift… read more...

Zollverein

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-29 10:08:09:000

"An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war." - Montesquieu Watching with interest the evolution of the Brexit negotiations in conjunction with the tone down stance between Italy and the European Commission surrounding the budget, while waiting for the next G20 and potential US… read more...

Country Stock Markets As A Percent Of World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-29 07:39:03:000

Below is a look at the percentage of total world stock market cap that each country's stock market makes up. For each country, we show its percentage of world market cap as of today, as it stood on 9/20 when the S&P 500 made its last all-time high, as it stood on election day 2016, and as … read more...

2018 Year-To-Date Country Stock Market Returns

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-29 07:34:32:000

Below is an updated look at year-to-date stock market returns (in local currency) for 75 countries around the world. 2018 has turned into a red year for equities as the average country is now down 3.75% YTD. Just 20 countries (26.7%) are in the green for the year, while 55 are in the red. As… read more...

The Direction Is (Globally) Clear

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-28 05:03:44:000

It is definitely one period that they got wrong. Still, IHS Markit's Composite PMI for the US economy has been one of the better forward-looking indicators around. Tying to real GDP, this blend of manufacturing and services sentiment has predicted the general economic trend in the United State… read more...

Global Debt Increase 2018 Vs. Gold Investment: Must See Charts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-28 03:59:02:000

Global debt increased at the fastest rate at the beginning of 2018. In just one quarter, total global debt jumped by more than $8 trillion. That is quite surprising as total world debt rose by $22 trillion for the full year in 2017. Thus, the increase in global debt last year averaged $5.5 tri… read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week - Macro Divergences, Warning Signs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-28 01:27:40:000

In this video, we run through the free weekly email newsletter "The Top 5 Charts of the Week" and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week we look at the … read more...

Central Banks To The Rescue? Don't Count On It

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-28 00:59:18:000

By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Nov. 26, 2018, in Market & Economic Stocks continued to slide last week, and most major indices are negative for the year-to-date period - some having posted double-digit losses. As I noted in my commentary last week ,… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-27 11:00:55:000

By Jill Mislinski Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 19, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 5.80%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 0.64%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 4… read more...

Investors May Get Some Good News For A Change

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-27 06:40:22:000

By Jeffrey Kleintop Key Points Ominous signs for the world economy may be causing stocks to price in an imminent global recession. However, plunging oil prices, negative third-quarter GDP growth in major economies and the decline in the global manufacturing PMI appear to be isolated,… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Roll Yield Favors Vol Longs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-25 04:24:01:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday Close Small-cap stocks ( IWM ) managed to hold on to the slimmest of gains, while the other major averages ( SPY , DIA , QQQ ) ultimately succumbed yet again to "selling pressure" (remember that for every sale, there is by definition also a purchase). Spot… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Roll Yield Favors Vol Longs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-25 04:24:01:000

Market Intro CNBC: Friday Close Small-cap stocks ( IWM ) managed to hold on to the slimmest of gains, while the other major averages ( SPY , DIA , QQQ ) ultimately succumbed yet again to "selling pressure" (remember that for every sale, there is by definition also a purchase). Spot… read more...

World Trade Falls, With Tariffs Making Their Mark

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-24 09:13:39:000

By Joanna Konings, Senior Economist, International Trade Analysis Q3 saw the largest increase in tariffs so far in 2018 but has also been the most successful quarter this year for growth in trade volumes. However, momentum stopped building in September, and headwinds from economic acti… read more...

Danielle's Bi-Weekly Market Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-24 03:28:55:000

Danielle was guest with Jim Goddard on Talk Digital Network talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. Disclosure: No Read more … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Stocks Attempt A Recovery, But Settle Flat

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 01:26:30:000

Market Intro Global stocks ( VGK , ACWI , SPY ) took the opportunity to recoup after a couple rough weeks as Americans head to the Thanksgiving table. Weakness in Apple (AAPL) may have played a role in US stocks giving up most of the days gains, but at least in the after-hours ma… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Stocks Attempt A Recovery, But Settle Flat

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 01:26:30:000

Market Intro Global stocks ( VGK , ACWI , SPY ) took the opportunity to recoup after a couple rough weeks as Americans head to the Thanksgiving table. Weakness in Apple (AAPL) may have played a role in US stocks giving up most of the days gains, but at least in the after-hours ma… read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week - The Return Of Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 01:20:05:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week we look at the f… read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week - The Return Of Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-22 01:20:05:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week we look at the f… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-20 06:03:17:000

By Jill Mislinski Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 19, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 5.80%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 0.64%. In third place is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with… read more...

Vanguard sees global growth slowing ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-19 15:36:02:000

Global economic growth should slow, but shouldn't slip into recession next year, Vanguard says in its global outlook summary. More news on: Invesco 1-30 Laddered Treasury Portfolio ETF, iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, BlackRock Enhanced Government Fund, Global news and forex, Financia… read more...

9 In 10 In The Red: Asset Markets YTD Returns Signal Risk Repricing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-18 11:39:37:000

According to a recent research note from the Deutsche Bank, 89% of global macro assets are posting losses on year-to-date basis. This is the highest level of losses in more than a century. Given the scale of financial risk mis-pricing in equities and bonds markets in the post-QE period, we a… read more...

China's Slowdown Will Have Significant Global Effects

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-17 14:16:33:000

By Mickey D. Levy China's outsized growth in the last two decades has lifted it to the second largest economy in the world, a truly outstanding accomplishment (Charts 1 and 2). Its current target for real GDP growth - 6.5% - is above its slowing potential and unsustainable. It's unrealisti… read more...

Short And Sharp: Take Cover, Worse Is Yet To Come

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-16 04:57:46:000

By Seema Shah, Global Investment Strategist, Principal Global Investors October's slide in global equities erased around $5 trillion of market capitalization; triggered by a perfect storm of a hawkish Federal Reserve, softening US economic data, and negative earnings guidance. Markets have… read more...

So Goes Apple, So Goes The U.S. Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 18:30:09:000

Apple (AAPL) has been one of my largest individual holdings for the bulk of the post-recession stock bull. I believed in it when it was trading for one-tenth of its current value back in 2009. I even believed in it when it plummeted 40% in the winter of 2012-2013. Back then, though, Apple's … read more...

So Goes Apple, So Goes The U.S. Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 18:30:09:000

Apple (AAPL) has been one of my largest individual holdings for the bulk of the post-recession stock bull. I believed in it when it was trading for one-tenth of its current value back in 2009. I even believed in it when it plummeted 40% in the winter of 2012-2013. Back then, though, Apple's … read more...

Global GDP Still Propped Up By A Massive Amount Of Debt

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 10:13:18:000

While the government agencies and economists continue to publish strong GDP figures, they seem to overlook how much debt it took to produce that growth. Or should I say, the "supposed growth." The days of adding one dollar of debt to get one dollar of GDP growth have been long gone for more th… read more...

Global GDP Still Propped Up By A Massive Amount Of Debt

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 10:13:18:000

While the government agencies and economists continue to publish strong GDP figures, they seem to overlook how much debt it took to produce that growth. Or should I say, the "supposed growth." The days of adding one dollar of debt to get one dollar of GDP growth have been long gone for more th… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Slip N' Slide

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 08:37:10:000

Market Intro CNBC: Tuesday Close Price action was on the sloppy side on Tuesday for US stocks ( SPY , DIA , IWM ). For once, the Nasdaq ( QQQ ) held its own, and the other indexes weighed more heavily. Spot VIX was relatively unchanged for the day. Econoday Economic Calendar: Trun… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Slip N' Slide

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 08:37:10:000

Market Intro CNBC: Tuesday Close Price action was on the sloppy side on Tuesday for US stocks ( SPY , DIA , IWM ). For once, the Nasdaq ( QQQ ) held its own, and the other indexes weighed more heavily. Spot VIX was relatively unchanged for the day. Econoday Economic Calendar: Trun… read more...

The 'Multiple Uncertainties' That Are On My Mind

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 02:44:45:000

Buenos Aires, Argentina Heavy rainstorms swept through Buenos Aires in the past few days. Lightning flashed, thunder cracked, streets were inundated, social plans were changed. That said, on the financial side at least, things have calmed down in Argentina… for now. A year ago, one US do... read more...

The 'Multiple Uncertainties' That Are On My Mind

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 02:44:45:000

Buenos Aires, Argentina Heavy rainstorms swept through Buenos Aires in the past few days. Lightning flashed, thunder cracked, streets were inundated, social plans were changed. That said, on the financial side at least, things have calmed down in Argentina… for now. A year ago, one US do... read more...

Gundlach: U.S. High Yield Spread Heading Into Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 02:05:00:000

Original Post Jeffrey Gundlach's DoubleLine Asset Allocation webcast for the month of November 2018, discussing the U.S. high yield spread heading into recession. TAB I - Global Overview G4 Central Banks' Balance Sheets Fed = Federal Reserve, BOJ = Bank of Japan, ECB = European C… read more...

Gundlach: U.S. High Yield Spread Heading Into Recession

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-14 02:05:00:000

Original Post Jeffrey Gundlach's DoubleLine Asset Allocation webcast for the month of November 2018, discussing the U.S. high yield spread heading into recession. TAB I - Global Overview G4 Central Banks' Balance Sheets Fed = Federal Reserve, BOJ = Bank of Japan, ECB = European C… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-13 02:47:22:000

By Jill Mislinski Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 12, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 2.96%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 1.97%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 2… read more...

Trade Downturn Keeps Global Growth Close To 2-Year Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-12 03:32:00:000

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's monthly PMI overview presentation. The full report can be viewed at the bottom of this article. Global PMI stuck close to two-year low in October Global business activity grew at a marginally improved rate in October, suggesting the pace of e… read more...

Understanding The Global Recession Of 2019

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-12 02:03:44:000

Isn't it obvious that repeating the policies of 2009 won't be enough to save the system from a long-delayed reset? 2019 is shaping up to be the year in which all the policies that worked in the past will no longer work. As we all know, the Global Financial Meltdown/recession of 2008-09 w… read more...

8 Charts On Quantitative Tightening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-11 07:44:33:000

As quantitative tightening moves to full speed, I thought it would be a good idea to update some of the charts from the popular " 7 Charts on Quantitative Tightening " article. The commencement of quantitative tightening (or, officially, balance sheet normalization) marked an important miles… read more...

U.S. Election Result Likely To Magnify Global Slowdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 04:39:51:000

For financial markets and the economy, the most relevant outcome of last night's reweighting in the US Congress may be that further tax cuts and unfettered deficit spending are less likely over the next two years. While this should mean lower US debt accumulation going forward (a good thing)… read more...

U.S. Election Result Likely To Magnify Global Slowdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 04:39:51:000

For financial markets and the economy, the most relevant outcome of last night's reweighting in the US Congress may be that further tax cuts and unfettered deficit spending are less likely over the next two years. While this should mean lower US debt accumulation going forward (a good thing)… read more...

U.S. Election Result Likely To Magnify Global Slowdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 04:39:51:000

For financial markets and the economy, the most relevant outcome of last night's reweighting in the US Congress may be that further tax cuts and unfettered deficit spending are less likely over the next two years. While this should mean lower US debt accumulation going forward (a good thing)… read more...

China Won't Bail Out Global Markets This Time Around

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 03:56:40:000

I believe there are three important drivers to markets right now. Two long-term and one short-term. These are: China is actively trying to restructure its economy and end its incessant leveraging. A growing issuance of treasury paper, driven by a widening budget deficit and quantitative … read more...

China Won't Bail Out Global Markets This Time Around

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 03:56:40:000

I believe there are three important drivers to markets right now. Two long-term and one short-term. These are: China is actively trying to restructure its economy and end its incessant leveraging. A growing issuance of treasury paper, driven by a widening budget deficit and quantitative … read more...

China Won't Bail Out Global Markets This Time Around

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 03:56:40:000

I believe there are three important drivers to markets right now. Two long-term and one short-term. These are: China is actively trying to restructure its economy and end its incessant leveraging. A growing issuance of treasury paper, driven by a widening budget deficit and quantitative … read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week - Oil, Equities, Emerging Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 02:35:38:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week we look at the fol… read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week - Oil, Equities, Emerging Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 02:35:38:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week we look at the fol… read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week - Oil, Equities, Emerging Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-08 02:35:38:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week we look at the fol… read more...

3 Things I Think I Think - What In The Hell Is Going On Out There?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-07 01:43:50:000

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Has Mr. Market Finally Lost His Mind? It seems that everyone is losing their mind over politics, so I've been rather amazed that the financial market has held it together this long. That changed a bit in October as the MSCI All World Sto… read more...

What U.S. Midterms Mean For Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-06 00:46:30:000

Key points U.S. midterm elections this week could result in a shift in the balance of power in Washington, but are unlikely to bring any near-term policy shifts. Global equities took a breather after last week's selloff, but Mexican assets suffered after the president-elect scrapped a ma… read more...

Reflections On The Mega Millions Lottery: Can A Lottery Ticket With Great Odds Still Be A Bad Bet?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-05 12:13:57:000

Last week two of our favorite financial journalists the WSJs Jason Zweig and Bloombergs Matt Levine covered the Mega Millions lottery featuring an eye-catching jackpot of $1.54 billion. 1 Jasons What Investors Can Learn from Gamblers suggested that … read more...

The Link Between Policy Uncertainty And Global Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-05 06:00:55:000

It seems over the past few years the only certainty has been rising uncertainty, and the folk at Economic Policy Uncertainty have a set of indexes which map this trend out well. Their indicators use algorithms to generate readings based on the flow of news. As the charts below show, there ar… read more...

Risk Retreat Ignites Defensive Rotation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-02 00:18:35:000

By Philip Lawlor, managing director, Global Markets Research Though buoyed by a late rally, global equity markets ended October in negative territory as investors grappled with the prospect of a more aggressive Fed tightening regime despite slowing global growth, simmering US-China trade t… read more...

Risk Retreat Ignites Defensive Rotation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-02 00:18:35:000

By Philip Lawlor, managing director, Global Markets Research Though buoyed by a late rally, global equity markets ended October in negative territory as investors grappled with the prospect of a more aggressive Fed tightening regime despite slowing global growth, simmering US-China trade t… read more...

Risk Retreat Ignites Defensive Rotation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-02 00:18:35:000

By Philip Lawlor, managing director, Global Markets Research Though buoyed by a late rally, global equity markets ended October in negative territory as investors grappled with the prospect of a more aggressive Fed tightening regime despite slowing global growth, simmering US-China trade t… read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 20:04:11:000

Danielle was a guest with Kerry Lutz on The Financial Survival Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 20:04:11:000

Danielle was a guest with Kerry Lutz on The Financial Survival Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 20:04:11:000

Danielle was a guest with Kerry Lutz on The Financial Survival Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 20:04:11:000

Danielle was a guest with Kerry Lutz on The Financial Survival Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Kevin Warsh: A U.S.-China Trade War Would Cause 'Shock For The Global Economy'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 06:40:02:000

By Evan Peterson At a Glance The next 12 months are critical to the global supply chain, says former Fed Governor. In a year filled with news of trade tensions, there may not be a bigger story than the trade war between the United States and China. It's a trade partnership that … read more...

Synchronization Vs. Desynchronization

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 05:30:00:000

Global growth has desynchronized this year, while political trends around the world have become synchronous. Brian Giuliano and Anujeet Sareen, members of our Global Fixed Income team, explain how fiscal and monetary conditions in China as well as the evolution of the U.S.-Sino bilateral relat… read more...

Barbarians At And Inside The Gate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 05:08:14:000

Doug Noland and Michael Oliver are return guests on this week's radio program. In 56 BC, Cicero wrote: "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner open… read more...

Continuously Misidentifying Constant 'Overseas Turmoil' Leads To Constant Everywhere Turmoil

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 05:06:59:000

Overseas turmoil continues in October. The Chinese government released its Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) for both manufacturing and services. Each one came in at a multi-month low. The National Bureau of Statistics calculated that the manufacturing version was just 50.2 this month, the lo… read more...

Q3 Equity Manager Report: The Froth Has Left The Market

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-11-01 04:47:06:000

Does the stock market still have more to give? Geopolitical concerns are undeniable. Many equity market valuations appear to be expensive. Despite those truths, our manager research team has found that equity managers are generally bullish. 1 We've also seen some managers use the market pul… read more...

The Top 10 PE10 - Updated (Global Equity Valuations)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-31 12:37:55:000

With the global equity market correction spreading from Emerging Markets and Europe finally over to America too, it's tempting to ask (given the move in valuations): are global equities cheap yet?… and which countries are the cheapest? In this article, we provide an update to the " top 10 ... read more...

Time Travel, New Taxes And GE Collapses (Further)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-31 07:05:15:000

Buenos Aires, Argentina On Sunday, I flew back from New Zealand to my chosen home in Argentina. It was the third time that I've crossed the international date line, but only the first time that I've done it from west to east. The experience was somewhat surreal. My plane took off from Auck… read more...

Revisiting International Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-29 10:56:43:000

By Benjamin Segal, Senior Portfolio Manager - Head of Global Equity Team; and Elias Cohen, Portfolio Manager - Global Equity Team When a market fall appears indiscriminate, it may be inconsistent with fundamentals and offer an attractive long-term opportunity. Guest columnists Benj… read more...

Revisiting International Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-29 10:56:43:000

By Benjamin Segal, Senior Portfolio Manager - Head of Global Equity Team; and Elias Cohen, Portfolio Manager - Global Equity Team When a market fall appears indiscriminate, it may be inconsistent with fundamentals and offer an attractive long-term opportunity. Guest columnists Benj… read more...

Fear The L

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-29 06:21:59:000

It's one thing if China registers a low ceiling or Brazil. That wasn't going to be possible this time in the developed world. Europe and the US were finally going to lead. That's what they said last year, anyway. Markets are freaking out about the growing evidence for so many growth ceilings… read more...

Fear The L

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-29 06:21:59:000

It's one thing if China registers a low ceiling or Brazil. That wasn't going to be possible this time in the developed world. Europe and the US were finally going to lead. That's what they said last year, anyway. Markets are freaking out about the growing evidence for so many growth ceilings… read more...

Global Slowdown Rattling Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 15:13:43:000

By FS Staff Andrew Zatlin at Moneyball Economics says two of the three engines of global economic growth are stalling with China, in particular, showing signs of panic borrowing . China Faltering While China has been the greatest contributor to global economic growth in recent decad… read more...

Global Slowdown Rattling Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 15:13:43:000

By FS Staff Andrew Zatlin at Moneyball Economics says two of the three engines of global economic growth are stalling with China, in particular, showing signs of panic borrowing . China Faltering While China has been the greatest contributor to global economic growth in recent decad… read more...

The Danger Of Elevated Trade Frictions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 04:06:28:000

Elevated trade protectionism marks the greatest downside risk to the global expansion and is a prime driver of heightened macro uncertainty . The U.S. trade conflict with China is at the heart of higher trade tensions. We find that trade tensions have likely served as a drag on risk assets, e… read more...

The Danger Of Elevated Trade Frictions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 04:06:28:000

Elevated trade protectionism marks the greatest downside risk to the global expansion and is a prime driver of heightened macro uncertainty . The U.S. trade conflict with China is at the heart of higher trade tensions. We find that trade tensions have likely served as a drag on risk assets, e… read more...

Global Credit Economic Summary And Outlook Q3 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 01:49:17:000

Domestic Summary The economy continued to expand at an above-trend rate in the third quarter of 2018, following the seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth of 4.2% reported for the second quarter. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantas GDPNow estimate (as of Oc… read more...

Global Credit Economic Summary And Outlook Q3 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-27 01:49:17:000

Domestic Summary The economy continued to expand at an above-trend rate in the third quarter of 2018, following the seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth of 4.2% reported for the second quarter. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantas GDPNow estimate (as of Oc… read more...

Today's Seismic Shifts And Their Impacts

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-26 11:10:13:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer-Equities; & Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer-Multi-Asset Class A decade after the financial crisis, four key trends are helping to fashion the investment landscape for the next 10 years. The world is u… read more...

Stock Market Sell-Off: The Sequel

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-26 10:05:27:000

By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist, and Arnab Das, Global Market Strategist, EMEA , on Oct 24, 2018, in Market & Economic For the second time in two weeks, global markets suffered a significant drop. Why? And what could come next? After a pause in which stocks pa… read more...

Stock Sell-Off Accelerates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-25 07:34:50:000

Wanaka, South Island, New Zealand The timezone in New Zealand takes some getting used to for a newbie like me. It's 6 P.M. on Thursday as I start typing. That's 6 A.M. in London, 1 A.M. in New York and 8 P.M. on Wednesday in Los Angeles. The world's main markets ground away last night (New… read more...

5 Issues Rattling Global Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-24 01:04:30:000

By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Oct 22, 2018, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Trade tops the list once again, while central banks take center stage this week There was no rest for the weary last week, as geopolitical developments came fas… read more...

Chart Of The Week: Death Watch

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-24 00:39:46:000

One relatively obscure technical chart pattern, known ominously as the "death cross", has caught my attention recently. The reason is, if you look across the 70 countries we monitor, almost 80% of markets have seen this omen light up. So, what does it mean for global equities? This week's ch… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-23 04:47:04:000

By Jill Mislinski Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, October 22, 2018. The top performer this year is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 3.08%. In second place is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 0.95%. In third place is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with … read more...

Sticking To The Short End (For Now)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-23 02:11:31:000

Key points We maintain our preference for short-term bonds even after the rise in long-term yields. Global equity markets stabilized after last week's selloff. The Italy versus Germany government bond yield spread hit the widest in over five years. This week marks the peak of third-qua… read more...

Watches And Casinos Point To Global Slowing

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-23 00:35:57:000

The US economy has maintained its robust growth this year but the broader global economy cannot boast the same health. Among many others, indicators like Japanese exports, Swiss exports, and German industrial orders are all either in retreat or decelerating at a significant pace. On top of t… read more...

A Lack Of Inspiration

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-22 03:34:43:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Markets seem to be struggling to find a theme to latch on to, so am I. OK, what now? By the time I get into work, I usually have an idea what the key theme for the day, or the week is going to be. Maybe there is a… read more...

This Week In Money - October 20, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-21 01:59:24:000

Ross Clark Gold, Crude. Gerald Celente China, Gold, Oil, Global Economy. Eric Hadik Market Cycles. Larry Reaugh President & CEO of American Manganese Jim Pettit President & CEO of Aben Resources Produced by Read… read more...

Is The Greatest Bull Market Ever Finally Ending? (Hint: Follow The Money)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-19 09:39:23:000

The key here is the gains generated by owning US-denominated assets as the USD appreciates. Is the Greatest Bull Market Ever finally ending? One straightforward approach to is to follow the money , i.e. global capital flows: assets that attract positive global capital flows will continu… read more...

Is The Greatest Bull Market Ever Finally Ending? (Hint: Follow The Money)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-19 09:39:23:000

The key here is the gains generated by owning US-denominated assets as the USD appreciates. Is the Greatest Bull Market Ever finally ending? One straightforward approach to is to follow the money , i.e. global capital flows: assets that attract positive global capital flows will continu… read more...

Asset Allocation Update - October 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-19 02:26:20:000

Read more … read more...

Asset Allocation Update - October 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-19 02:26:20:000

Read more … read more...

The Annuity Puzzle: How Big Is The Free Lunch Being Left On The Table?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-18 13:19:02:000

The looming Savings Crisis is usually attributed to people not saving enough and making poor investment decisions with what they do save. We believe theres another major culprit, which is that due to market inefficiencies, too many investors cant order the free lunch inherent i… read more...

The Biggest Risk To The Global Expansion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-18 11:21:43:000

In her inaugural post, Elga Bartsch explains why elevated trade protectionism marks the greatest downside risk to the global expansion. Our base case is for ongoing robust global growth, fueled by the U.S. What could change this outlook? We believe surging trade tensions remain the biggest… read more...

Sentiment Time

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-17 12:32:41:000

The one thing the globally synchronized growth narrative had going for it was sentiment. It often had that in surplus. But therein lies a major drawback; are people happy because things are getting better, or do they believe things are getting better because "everyone" says so? There's a diffe… read more...

Global Economic Perspective: October

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-17 03:55:32:000

Christopher J. Molumphy, Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, David Zahn, CFA, FRM, Head of European Fixed Income, Senior Vice President, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, John Beck, Director of Fixed Income, London, Senior Vice Presi… read more...

Will The Global Stock Sell-Off Continue?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-17 02:12:00:000

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on October 15, 2018, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Earnings may provide support as the threats of normalization and protectionism continue. It was yet another week in which I felt like we lived 100 … read more...

The U.S. Not Alone In Being Oversold

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-16 05:15:39:000

It is no secret that the US has become extremely oversold in the past week, but this weakness extends well outside of our own borders. With the worst of the selloff occurring last Thursday, declines were widespread and extreme. The table below shows the Overbought and Oversold readings of glob… read more...

What Is Happening To Global Equities?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-15 19:43:57:000

The decline in the global equity market is the most serious since the February and March spill. In this Great Graphic , t he white line is the S&P 500. With the setback, it is up a little more than 8% for the year. It managed to recover fully from the sell-off earlier in the ye… read more...

This Week In Money - October 13, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 01:41:48:000

Ross Clark Stock Market Meltdown. Oil. Danielle Park World Debt, Stock Market Decline, Canadas & Australias Collapsing Real Estate Bubbles. Victor Adair Gold, Rising Interest Rates. Larry Reaugh President & CEO of Ame… read more...

This Week In Money - October 13, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-14 01:41:48:000

Ross Clark Stock Market Meltdown. Oil. Danielle Park World Debt, Stock Market Decline, Canadas & Australias Collapsing Real Estate Bubbles. Victor Adair Gold, Rising Interest Rates. Larry Reaugh President & CEO of Ame… read more...

The Financial System Is Stronger, But New Vulnerabilities Have Emerged In The Decade Since The Crisis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-12 03:13:26:000

By Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department Although the global expansion has plateaued, easy monetary policies continue to support growth. But we shouldn't rest too easily. Chapter 1 of the latest Global Financial Stability … read more...

The Financial System Is Stronger, But New Vulnerabilities Have Emerged In The Decade Since The Crisis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-12 03:13:26:000

By Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department Although the global expansion has plateaued, easy monetary policies continue to support growth. But we shouldn't rest too easily. Chapter 1 of the latest Global Financial Stability … read more...

A Simple 2 ETF Portfolio That Gives You Near Total Diversification For Under 0.10%

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 13:59:10:000

A month ago, I published an article about a simple 2 ETF combination that gives investors a completely diversified portfolio in one nice neat little package. It turned out to be one of my most popular articles and led to a terrific comment thread with lots of great ideas. The article confi… read more...

A Few Additions To The 'Family Album'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 09:36:13:000

I just wanted to add a few more "pictures" as the say in Silicon Valley into what I now call the "Family Album of Markets." There's an ulterior motive for posting these in addition to just making my observations available and that motive is this: I want to make sure this is on the record for p… read more...

Global Growth And Optimism Slide To 2 Year Lows, But Prices Rise At Record Rate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 08:11:53:000

Global economic growth moderated to a two-year low in September in a broad-based slowdown, according to the latest PMI surveys. Business confidence about the year ahead likewise fell to the gloomiest for two years, suggesting growth may weaken further in coming months. Average prices charged … read more...

The Populist Pathology

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-11 05:14:17:000

The populist pathology is incredibly simple; no one ever takes the blame. Things continually go off-track and officials merely shrug their shoulders and point their fingers. The very idea of accountability is anachronistic. Now that dark clouds are gathering, in the IMF's words , the finger… read more...

DoubleLine Global Bond Webcast Slides: Navigating Global Cross Currents; The Rise Of Populism In The Developed World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-10 20:07:00:000

Original Post By Jacob Wolinsky DoubleLine Global Bond webcast slides for the month of October 2018, titled, "Navigating Global Cross Currents Navigating Global Cross Currents." TAB I - Today's Cross-Currents The Rise of Populism in the Developed World (Source: DB Research) … read more...

Global Equity Sell-Off

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-10 04:33:09:000

lt's not exactly news that global markets have been significantly weaker than the US this year. Almost every single international ETF is down year to date; a few of which are down by double-digit percentages. Only two have managed to edge out slight gains YTD. The Global 100 (IOO) has seen gai… read more...

Global Growth Plateaus As Economic Risks Materialize

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-10 04:27:30:000

By Maurice Obstfeld, the Economic Counsellor and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund The latest World Economic Outlook report projects that global growth will remain steady over 2018-19 at last year's rate of 3.7 percent. This growth exceeds that achieved in any of … read more...

Market Update: Global Ripple Effects

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-09 04:52:54:000

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian discusses how Italian bonds and Chinese currency are having ripple effects on global bond and equities Read more … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-09 03:33:19:000

By Jill Mislinski Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, October 8, 2018. The top performer this year is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 7.89%. In second is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 4.48%. In third is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 1…. read more...

Value Hunting Overseas Continued

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-08 01:01:08:000

In investing the person that turns over the most rocks wins the game - Peter Lynch US Market Recap As of 10/4/2018, the Dow just hit its 15 th record high this year. Meanwhile, all valuation metrics have been indicating bubble territories for the overall US stock market. For… read more...

Are Trade Tensions Slowing Down China's Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-06 07:40:13:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Adam Goff, managing director, investment practice, and Sam Templeton, manager, global communications, discussed recently released economic data points for China and the U.S., as well as U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's re… read more...

Are Trade Tensions Slowing Down China's Economy?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-06 07:40:13:000

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Adam Goff, managing director, investment practice, and Sam Templeton, manager, global communications, discussed recently released economic data points for China and the U.S., as well as U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's re… read more...

International Gains Ground As Trade Tensions Ease - Q3 '18 Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 06:45:54:000

Data Source: Bloomberg International Gains Ground as Trade Tensions Ease Source: istockphoto As we write this, it was announced over the last weekend in September that the U.S. and Canada have reached a last-minute accord to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement ((NA… read more...

Lasting Effects: The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After The Crisis

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-05 02:40:41:000

By Wenjie Chen, economist in the IMFs African Department; Mico Mrkaic, senior economist in the IMFs Research Department; Malhar Nabar, Deputy Division Chief of the World Economic Studies Division in the IMF's Research Department In the year following the 2008 financial cris… read more...

Central Bank Credibility Pays Off In Times Of Stress

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-04 07:18:44:000

By Rudolfs Bems , Senior Economist at the Research Department of the IMF, Francesca Caselli , Economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF Research Department, Francesco Grigoli , Economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMFs Research Department,… read more...

NAFTA 2.0: A Bold New Beginning? Or A Modest Rewrite?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-04 04:07:52:000

By Eric Winograd The revised NAFTA deal relieves uncertainty for Canada and avoids a possible Mexican barrier to ratification. But what does it really mean for the three countries involved, or for trade tension with China? The US and Canada, over the weekend, reached agreement on a NAFTA… read more...

Interactive Brokers - U.S. Carmakers Suffer Significant Damage As Tariffs And Other Headwinds Take A Toll

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 11:05:24:000

The U.S. auto industry has been recently beset by a long list of headwinds, including global trade disputes, rising commodity prices, as well as weaker emerging market currencies. U.S. auto giants Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F ) and General Motors (NYSE: GM ), for example, have generally bla… read more...

Ivy Portfolio October Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-03 02:26:47:000

The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet track the 10-month moving average signals for two portfolios listed in Mebane Faber's book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets . Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-… read more...

Rolling Over

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-02 06:17:23:000

Here they come. After spending more than a year talking about nothing but good things ahead for the global economy, Economists are beginning to sound worried. In 2017, there wasn't anything that could stand in the way of synchronized growth. In 2018, there's no longer any synchronized growth, … read more...

World Exports Fall For First Time In Over 2 Years

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-10-01 23:48:47:000

Worldwide manufacturers reported the first fall in global export orders for over two years in September, according to the latest PMI surveys. The slowdown in trade acted as a further drag on factory output, order book growth and hiring. Price pressures, purchasing activity growth and supply co… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: 10-Yr Treasury VIX Series Hits All-Time Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 14:02:49:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:59 PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) recaptured most of the losses from the mild post-Fed selloff. The dip in Treasury yields (IEF, TLT, AGG) spurred the rate-sensitive utilities sector ( XLU ) higher. Materials ( XLB ) is the only sector to sustain lo… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: 10-Yr Treasury VIX Series Hits All-Time Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 14:02:49:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:59 PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) recaptured most of the losses from the mild post-Fed selloff. The dip in Treasury yields (IEF, TLT, AGG) spurred the rate-sensitive utilities sector ( XLU ) higher. Materials ( XLB ) is the only sector to sustain lo… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: 10-Yr Treasury VIX Series Hits All-Time Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 14:02:49:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:59 PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) recaptured most of the losses from the mild post-Fed selloff. The dip in Treasury yields (IEF, TLT, AGG) spurred the rate-sensitive utilities sector ( XLU ) higher. Materials ( XLB ) is the only sector to sustain lo… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: 10-Yr Treasury VIX Series Hits All-Time Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 14:02:49:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:59 PM EST US stocks ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) recaptured most of the losses from the mild post-Fed selloff. The dip in Treasury yields (IEF, TLT, AGG) spurred the rate-sensitive utilities sector ( XLU ) higher. Materials ( XLB ) is the only sector to sustain lo… read more...

World Trade Growth Defies Trump Tariffs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 03:44:16:000

By Timme Spakman, Economist, International Trade Analysis Despite the ongoing tit-for-tat trade war spat between the US and China, world trade grew in July by 1.1%, pushing up the momentum to 1% July was the first month in which the tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China beca… read more...

World Trade Growth Defies Trump Tariffs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 03:44:16:000

By Timme Spakman, Economist, International Trade Analysis Despite the ongoing tit-for-tat trade war spat between the US and China, world trade grew in July by 1.1%, pushing up the momentum to 1% July was the first month in which the tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China beca… read more...

World Trade Growth Defies Trump Tariffs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 03:44:16:000

By Timme Spakman, Economist, International Trade Analysis Despite the ongoing tit-for-tat trade war spat between the US and China, world trade grew in July by 1.1%, pushing up the momentum to 1% July was the first month in which the tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China beca… read more...

World Trade Growth Defies Trump Tariffs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-27 03:44:16:000

By Timme Spakman, Economist, International Trade Analysis Despite the ongoing tit-for-tat trade war spat between the US and China, world trade grew in July by 1.1%, pushing up the momentum to 1% July was the first month in which the tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China beca… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Stocks Mark Time As FOMC Deliberates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-26 11:31:41:000

Market Intro CNBC: 10:40 AM EST Global stocks ( ACWI ) have put in a scattered performance over the past 24 hours. The US session ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) has thus far put in a forgettable showing. The materials sector ( XLB ) is down about three quarters of a percent, while the mu… read more...

Growth In Global Trade Impeded As Tit-For-Tat Tariffs Escalate

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-26 06:09:51:000

By Bluford Putnam The growth in global trade has been impeded by the trade war. Could the escalating tit-for-tat tariffs eventually impact U.S. corporate Read more … read more...

A Check-In On European Risk

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-25 03:45:36:000

Key points We see reduced near-term risk of flare-ups over eurozone cohesion, but still see non-eurozone assets offering better risk-adjusted returns. Global equities rose last week, even as the U.S.-China trade conflict escalated. Value stocks rallied. The U.S. Treasury yield curve stee… read more...

Trade war dimming prospects for large scale M&A, J.P. Morgan banker says

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-24 02:35:22:000

Rising geopolitical tensions and the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China will deter companies from carrying out big deals , says Hernan Cristerna, JPMorgan's (NYSE: JPM ) global co-head of M&A. More news on: JPMorgan Chase & Co., Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, iShares… read more...

What Can Go Right In International Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 00:51:57:000

By Michael Testorf, CFA Growth Drivers Across Regions Currency headwinds from a strengthening U.S. dollar ((USD)) and a moderate slowing of growth have weighed on international equities in 2018. The escalation of global trade tensions, meanwhile, have hurt investor sentiment, causing w… read more...

What Can Go Right In International Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 00:51:57:000

By Michael Testorf, CFA Growth Drivers Across Regions Currency headwinds from a strengthening U.S. dollar ((USD)) and a moderate slowing of growth have weighed on international equities in 2018. The escalation of global trade tensions, meanwhile, have hurt investor sentiment, causing w… read more...

What Can Go Right In International Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 00:51:57:000

By Michael Testorf, CFA Growth Drivers Across Regions Currency headwinds from a strengthening U.S. dollar ((USD)) and a moderate slowing of growth have weighed on international equities in 2018. The escalation of global trade tensions, meanwhile, have hurt investor sentiment, causing w… read more...

Short And Sharp: Trump Ups The Pressure On Global Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 00:37:19:000

By Seema Shah, Global Investment Strategist, Principal Global Investors Trump's latest round of tariffs, 10% on an additional $200 billion of U.S. imports from China and rising to 25% in the new year, considerably ups the ante in this trade war and pushes China against a brick wall. While … read more...

Short And Sharp: Trump Ups The Pressure On Global Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 00:37:19:000

By Seema Shah, Global Investment Strategist, Principal Global Investors Trump's latest round of tariffs, 10% on an additional $200 billion of U.S. imports from China and rising to 25% in the new year, considerably ups the ante in this trade war and pushes China against a brick wall. While … read more...

Short And Sharp: Trump Ups The Pressure On Global Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-21 00:37:19:000

By Seema Shah, Global Investment Strategist, Principal Global Investors Trump's latest round of tariffs, 10% on an additional $200 billion of U.S. imports from China and rising to 25% in the new year, considerably ups the ante in this trade war and pushes China against a brick wall. While … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Global Tailwinds Pushes Dow To New Heights, While VIX Retreats

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-20 14:35:09:000

Market Intro CNBC: 1:11PM EST Global stocks ( ACWX , SPY , EFA , EEM ) are enjoying a positive day on Thursday as the Dow bursts to a new all-time high. Spot VIX dutifully retreats in response to the renewed tenor of optimism, hitting a low for the day of 11.31 Investing.com I… read more...

Markets Diverge From The U.S.

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-20 02:12:54:000

Clarity Financial Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts examines the divergence of world markets to the U.S. and discusses the message they may be sending to Read more … read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Markets Shrug Off 'Trade War' Fears, September VX Futures Expire Tomorrow Morning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-18 14:20:21:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:59PM EST US markets ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) tried to care about the trade talks on Monday, but at least for Tuesday's session there has not been much follow through on that nervousness. Spot VIX neared 12.5 earlier in the session, currently claiming the regio… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Markets Shrug Off 'Trade War' Fears, September VX Futures Expire Tomorrow Morning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-18 14:20:21:000

Market Intro CNBC: 12:59PM EST US markets ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) tried to care about the trade talks on Monday, but at least for Tuesday's session there has not been much follow through on that nervousness. Spot VIX neared 12.5 earlier in the session, currently claiming the regio… read more...

Global Investment Outlook: How Much Further Can Global Growth Fly?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-18 02:57:41:000

By Stephen H. Dover, CFA, Executive Vice President, Head of Equities; Christopher J. Molumphy, CFA, Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group; Michael Hasenstab, Ph.D., Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Templeton Global M… read more...

Global Investment Outlook: How Much Further Can Global Growth Fly?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-18 02:57:41:000

By Stephen H. Dover, CFA, Executive Vice President, Head of Equities; Christopher J. Molumphy, CFA, Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group; Michael Hasenstab, Ph.D., Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Templeton Global M… read more...

The Year Of Living Divergently

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 08:17:59:000

By Erik Knutzen, Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Class Unusually wide disparities in market returns have been this year's theme, but how long can it last? This year, in CIO Weekly Perspectives and our Asset Allocation Committee meetings, we have repeatedly spoken of global ec… read more...

Batten Down The Hatches

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-17 03:34:37:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Natural disasters are not the time to be finessing GDP forecasts. After hitting the Philippines, Typhoon Mangkhut glances Hong Kong and moves on to China With reports putting the death toll in the Philippines at 64, … read more...

Global Economic Perspective: September

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-16 08:26:07:000

By Christopher J. Molumphy, CFA, Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group; David Zahn, CFA, FRM, Head of European Fixed Income, Senior Vice President, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group; John Beck, Director of Fixed Income, London, Senior Vi… read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 17:52:25:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week: 1. Global equities… read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 17:52:25:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week: 1. Global equities… read more...

Video: Top 5 Charts Of The Week

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-13 17:52:25:000

In this video we run through the free weekly email newsletter " The Top 5 Charts of the Week " and add a bit of extra comments and context. It's a useful tour across some of our latest work and thinking and just a great selection of global macro/market charts. This week: 1. Global equities… read more...

A Penny Saved Is Two Pennies Earned

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 08:58:59:000

Most of us associate the maxim A penny saved is a penny earned with Benjamin Franklin, but what he actually said is far more insightful: A penny saved is two pence clear . By the time he penned this, in Hints for Those That Would be Rich of th… read more...

Global Growth Close To 2-Year Low In Broadening Slowdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-12 08:13:34:000

Global economic growth edged lower in August, according to the latest PMI surveys, down to its second-weakest for nearly two years. The surveys also brought signs of an export-led slowdown spreading to other parts of the economy, including weaker growth of business investment and consumer spen… read more...

Global Asset Allocation Update - September 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-11 07:14:00:000

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is 50/50. Decoupling anyone? That's what the market is whispering right now, that the recent troubles in foreign economies is contained and won't affect the US. The … read more...

Commentary: Jittery Investors Feel Butterflies As Divergence Replaces Central Bank Put

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-11 02:50:19:000

By Ashwin Alankar, Ph.D. Ash Alankar discusses in Pensions & Investments how as central banks begin to step back, other forces are stepping up, making markets more multidimensional. Investors are getting increasingly jittery as a new reality sets in. Since the global financial cr… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-11 00:45:11:000

By Jill Mislinski Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, September 10, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 12.15%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 7.61%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a loss of 0…. read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Options Traders Are Transacting In Downside Action

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-10 11:39:21:000

Market Intro CNBC: 11:04 EST Suffice it to say, markets are rather calmer today than they were 10 years ago when Lehman was collapsing. CNBC has a piece detailing that since that time, US stocks as measured by the S&P Total Return ( SPY ) are up about 11%. Slow and steady won the… read more...

Mind The (U.S.-Germany Yield) Gap

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-10 10:12:20:000

Key Points We see the yield spread between U.S. and German bonds modestly widening on U.S. economic outperformance and policy divergence. Technology stocks led global equities down. The Indonesian rupiah and South African rand joined the emerging market ((EM)) currency rout. This week'… read more...

The Most Important Number Not Printed In The WSJ

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-10 06:21:18:000

We are often asked for our estimate of the long-term return of the equity market. Our framework currently indicates 5.3% above inflation for global equities, which we know strikes many investors as high. This is understandable, given that the most available and frequently cited valuation ratio… read more...

2018's 'Dogs Of The World' (Stock Market Wrap)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-10 03:10:23:000

During 2018, up until May, the world's major stock markets had similar performance. Since then, the US has pushed higher, whereas most other markets have sunk lower. That performance gap widened considerably during August and early September. Today, I give a snapshot of what's happened and why… read more...

Peak Prices, Capital Waves Receding: Tsunami Alert

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 07:59:23:000

The Canadian dollar has fallen nearly 5% against the US dollar year-to-date and compared to emerging market ((EM)) currencies that decline is small. Of the 24 most traded EM currencies, only the Mexican Peso has managed to eke out a small gain against the greenback year to date, while several … read more...

Peak Prices, Capital Waves Receding: Tsunami Alert

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 07:59:23:000

The Canadian dollar has fallen nearly 5% against the US dollar year-to-date and compared to emerging market ((EM)) currencies that decline is small. Of the 24 most traded EM currencies, only the Mexican Peso has managed to eke out a small gain against the greenback year to date, while several … read more...

Peak Prices, Capital Waves Receding: Tsunami Alert

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-07 07:59:23:000

The Canadian dollar has fallen nearly 5% against the US dollar year-to-date and compared to emerging market ((EM)) currencies that decline is small. Of the 24 most traded EM currencies, only the Mexican Peso has managed to eke out a small gain against the greenback year to date, while several … read more...

International Equities At (Or Near) An Inflection Point

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-06 07:55:48:000

I continue to believe that threats of potentially prolonged trade wars have served as an emergency brake to a stock market that has been pressing on the gas pedal to try and move forward with a growing global economy serving as a tailwind. As progress is reported with respect to trade negoti… read more...

More Dominos

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-06 07:17:38:000

You get the impression often that these guys have no idea what drives the dollar. They cling to all sorts of theories, of course, from interest rate differentials to perceptions of economic strength. That seemed to be the case in 2017 and its "weak dollar" environment. Globally synchronized gr… read more...

10 Years After Lehman - Lessons Learned And Challenges Ahead

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-06 06:20:24:000

By Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of IMF A trader on the New York Stock Exchange the day US investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy: the global crisis that followed is a defining moment of our time (Photo: Nancy-Kaszerman/ZUMA Press/Newscom) The global financial cri… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 07:58:17:000

By Jill Mislinski Three of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, August 27, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 12.85%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 8.34%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 0.5… read more...

The Global Financial System Is Unraveling, And No, The U.S. Is Not Immune

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 07:18:35:000

Currencies don't melt down randomly. This is only the first stage of a complete re-ordering of the global financial system. Take a look at the Shanghai Stock Market (China) and tell me what you see: A complete meltdown, right? More specifically, a four-month battle to cling to the key … read more...

Ivy Portfolio September Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-05 06:41:39:000

The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks the 10-month moving average signals for two portfolios listed in Mebane Faber's book, The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets . Faber discusses 5-, 10-, and 20-security portfolios that have trading signals based on… read more...

Threat Of 'Currency Bullying'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-09-04 01:21:22:000

On 24 July, the International Monetary Fund released its 2018 External Sector Report, its latest assessment of the current account balances of the worlds 30 largest economies. There was no major change relative to previous years, and the configuration of global surpluses and deficits… read more...

Yet Another Lesson In Nightmares

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 05:30:58:000

I don't know how many different ways I can write this. Reserves are not insurance against monetary reversal, they are the calamity. If you have them, that only means you have a problem. And if you have a lot of them, well… The Financial Times , on Tuesday , wrote again about Argentina.... read more...

Yet Another Lesson In Nightmares

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 05:30:58:000

I don't know how many different ways I can write this. Reserves are not insurance against monetary reversal, they are the calamity. If you have them, that only means you have a problem. And if you have a lot of them, well… The Financial Times , on Tuesday , wrote again about Argentina.... read more...

Yet Another Lesson In Nightmares

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 05:30:58:000

I don't know how many different ways I can write this. Reserves are not insurance against monetary reversal, they are the calamity. If you have them, that only means you have a problem. And if you have a lot of them, well… The Financial Times , on Tuesday , wrote again about Argentina.... read more...

Yet Another Lesson In Nightmares

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 05:30:58:000

I don't know how many different ways I can write this. Reserves are not insurance against monetary reversal, they are the calamity. If you have them, that only means you have a problem. And if you have a lot of them, well… The Financial Times , on Tuesday , wrote again about Argentina.... read more...

Yet Another Lesson In Nightmares

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-30 05:30:58:000

I don't know how many different ways I can write this. Reserves are not insurance against monetary reversal, they are the calamity. If you have them, that only means you have a problem. And if you have a lot of them, well… The Financial Times , on Tuesday , wrote again about Argentina.... read more...

U.S. As % Of World Stock Market Cap Tops 40% Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-29 06:44:56:000

Below is a look at each country's percentage of total world stock market capitalization based on Bloomberg indices. (We only include the 35 largest countries by market cap in the table.) For each country, we show its current percentage of world market cap, where it stood on Election Day 2016… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-28 06:26:53:000

By Jill Mislinski Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, August 27, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 14.44%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 8.35%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a … read more...

Global Economy On Precipice Of Secular Decline: Detailed Via Shifting Population, Demographics, Income, And Consumption

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 08:13:07:000

Many look at global population growth as a given to greater consumption… and looking at the chart below of total global population set to hit 7.8 billion by 2020, one might be forgiven for this viewpoint. However, the reality, when one looks into the numbers, is that growth in global consump... read more...

Global Economy On Precipice Of Secular Decline: Detailed Via Shifting Population, Demographics, Income, And Consumption

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 08:13:07:000

Many look at global population growth as a given to greater consumption… and looking at the chart below of total global population set to hit 7.8 billion by 2020, one might be forgiven for this viewpoint. However, the reality, when one looks into the numbers, is that growth in global consump... read more...

Weekly Commentary: Powell, Greenspan And Whatever It Takes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 05:58:15:000

Fed Chairman Powell is in a tough spot, one made no easier now that he's on the receiving end of disapproving presidential tweets. The global Bubble has begun to falter, which only exacerbates divergences between various markets and economies. The U.S. is booming, while China struggles and EM … read more...

Weekly Commentary: Powell, Greenspan And Whatever It Takes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 05:58:15:000

Fed Chairman Powell is in a tough spot, one made no easier now that he's on the receiving end of disapproving presidential tweets. The global Bubble has begun to falter, which only exacerbates divergences between various markets and economies. The U.S. is booming, while China struggles and EM … read more...

Global Viewpoints: Sovereign Debt - In Sovereign Debt Investing, U.S. Dollar Direction Is Critical

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 05:27:42:000

By Ryan Myerberg In the last of a four-part series on investing in global sovereign debt markets, Portfolio Manager Ryan Myerberg discusses opportunities to find value. Key Takeaways Slowing growth means bond yields may trend lower in Canada and Australia, while the accelerating U.S… read more...

Global Viewpoints: Sovereign Debt - In Sovereign Debt Investing, U.S. Dollar Direction Is Critical

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-26 05:27:42:000

By Ryan Myerberg In the last of a four-part series on investing in global sovereign debt markets, Portfolio Manager Ryan Myerberg discusses opportunities to find value. Key Takeaways Slowing growth means bond yields may trend lower in Canada and Australia, while the accelerating U.S… read more...

International Economic Week In Review For August 20-24

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-25 02:17:45:000

In Canada, retail sales were down .2% , which followed a strong gain of 2.2% in the preceding month. Sales were down at auto dealerships, while activity increased at grocery stores and restaurants. On an inflation-adjusted basis, sales have been mostly flat for the last few years: Rem… read more...

Global PMIs Hang In There And That's The Bad News

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-24 07:30:50:000

At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29 , it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more. Tha… read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-23 07:40:03:000

Danielle was a guest with Kerry Lutz on The Financial Survival Network talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment by clicking the play button below. Disclosure: No Read more … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-22 02:01:11:000

By Jill Mislinski Three of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, August 20, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 13.21%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 6.86%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a… read more...

'This Time Is Different' - But Is It Really?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 09:23:38:000

Efforts to justify the lofty levels of today's markets and especially the FANG stocks are sometimes difficult to comprehend. The general consensus prior to the election of Donald Trump as President was that his election would spell certain doom for both the economy and markets in general. Prio… read more...

The Best Thing You'll Read On Turkey

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 06:20:39:000

I 've been thinking about whether or not to write something about the crisis unfolding in Turkey, but there are much smarter people out there doing the legwork for me. Chief amongst them is Brad Setser at CFR. This post of his is tremendously good. It might get a little confusing for some, s… read more...

Richard Duncan: Full-Blown Trade War Would Crash The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 05:46:49:000

By FS Staff Richard Duncan, writer and publisher at Macro Watch , warned on FS Insider that a full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China would lead to a spike in inflation, interest rates, and, if pushed too far, a cratering of the global economy into another Great Depression. Sound … read more...

Hopefully, Turkey Isn't The Trigger To A Global Economic Calamity

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-21 05:22:21:000

Over the past few days, there has been an almost 20 percent rebound in the Turkish lira from the all-time lows that it plumbed earlier in the week. It would be a mistake to think that this signals the end of the Turkish currency crisis. More important yet, it would be a mistake for U.S. poli… read more...

Stay Clear Of Global Stocks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-20 11:02:53:000

The big market theme this year has been decoupling between U.S. and global stocks. The chart above illustrates a remarkable 13% under-performance by global equities year-to-date as of July 15th. While the U.S. market ( SPY , IVV ) has done quite well (up 6.7% year-to-date), global stocks to… read more...

Global Economic Battle

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-20 00:12:12:000

Don't believe all the bravado coming out of foreign governments, pundits and media. The facts speak louder than the words. It is crystal clear that we are in the midst of a global economic battle with ramifications that will last decades. We all admire China for its long-term planning so why… read more...

Q3 2018 Investment Outlook: Growth Scare Offers Opportunity

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-19 06:46:12:000

Video Transcript Q3 2018 Investment Outlook: Growth Scare Offers Opportunity NATALIA GURUSHINA: VanEck CEO, Jan Van Eck, joins me today to discuss his macroeconomic outlook and also to talk about investment opportunities that he finds most interesting in the current environment…. read more...

Global Viewpoints: Sovereign Debt - U.S. Dollar Rally Drives Global Risk, Puts Pressure On Emerging Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-19 05:36:21:000

By Ryan Myerberg In the third of a four-part series, Portfolio Manager Ryan Myerberg looks at the impact that a fluctuating U.S. dollar has on emerging market debt. Despite stronger sensitivity to movement in the U.S. dollar and other challenges within emerging markets, we still think … read more...

Market Update: August Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-19 01:13:17:000

By OpenMarkets Although historically a quiet month, August has been anything but. Jack Bouroudjian tells us to pay attention to the rising dollar, rotation out of tech stocks and the global news headlines that have been driving the markets for the rest of the Read more … read more...

This Is Your Time Machine: Stock Markets In The Second Half Of The Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 14:14:53:000

History is no prologue, but for stock markets, past performance often gives us clues about the future. Weve written before about the January barometer, the notion that stock market performance in January foreshadows market performance for the full year. So if stock … read more...

This Is Your Time Machine: Stock Markets In The Second Half Of The Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 14:14:53:000

History is no prologue, but for stock markets, past performance often gives us clues about the future. Weve written before about the January barometer, the notion that stock market performance in January foreshadows market performance for the full year. So if stock … read more...

This Is Your Time Machine: Stock Markets In The Second Half Of The Year

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-16 14:14:53:000

History is no prologue, but for stock markets, past performance often gives us clues about the future. Weve written before about the January barometer, the notion that stock market performance in January foreshadows market performance for the full year. So if stock … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-14 09:02:51:000

By Jill Mislinski Three of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, August 13, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 11.33%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 5.55%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-14 09:02:51:000

By Jill Mislinski Three of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, August 13, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 11.33%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 5.55%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a… read more...

Monetary Policy May Have Been Overly Aggressive

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-14 03:24:03:000

Martin Sandbu's characterization of world central bank policy since 2008 as timid sits most uncomfortably with the facts ("The devastating cost of central bank inaction," August 8). Never before have the world's major central banks kept interest rates so low for so long as they have done ove… read more...

Monetary Policy May Have Been Overly Aggressive

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-14 03:24:03:000

Martin Sandbu's characterization of world central bank policy since 2008 as timid sits most uncomfortably with the facts ("The devastating cost of central bank inaction," August 8). Never before have the world's major central banks kept interest rates so low for so long as they have done ove… read more...

Rest Of World Weakness

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-13 14:31:32:000

As the dollar strengthens and the S&P 500 sits comfortably above its 50-day moving average, international equity market ETFs remain stuck in the mud. Below is a snapshot of regional ETFs from our Trend Analyzer tool. These are ETFs that US investors purchase to gain exposure to the res… read more...

Global Growth Cools At Start Of Q3 Amid Survey Record Price Rise

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-13 04:10:00:000

Read more … read more...

King Dollar

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-13 01:50:23:000

To paraphrase Larry Kudlow, Director of Trump's National Economic Council, "A strong dollar connotes a strong economy". Unfortunately, cracks in the global economy are appearing. Our Fed has begun a path toward normalization pushing up the Federal Funds rate as domestic growth has accelera… read more...

What Could A Trade War Mean For U.S. Macro Fundamentals?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-12 07:47:35:000

Posted by James Ong, Senior Macro Strategist on Aug 10, 2018, in Fixed Income The growing prospect of a global trade war presents major consequences for global markets, and the implications are difficult to assess. Because the past 30 years have consisted of generally expanding t… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Flat Trade Over The Week Segues Into Stronger Volatility Potential On Friday

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-10 10:08:01:000

Market Intro CNBC: Thursday Close US stocks are set to take a leg lower as global equity markets ( ACWI , ACWX , EEM , EFA ) deal with the collapse of the Turkish Lira and stock market ( TUR ). The Thursday session ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) turned out to be quite sleepy, with o… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Flat Trade Over The Week Segues Into Stronger Volatility Potential On Friday

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-10 10:08:01:000

Market Intro CNBC: Thursday Close US stocks are set to take a leg lower as global equity markets ( ACWI , ACWX , EEM , EFA ) deal with the collapse of the Turkish Lira and stock market ( TUR ). The Thursday session ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) turned out to be quite sleepy, with o… read more...

Impolitic Politics

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-08 10:47:33:000

Back to Argentina, back to the big city, back to a massive new corruption and bribery scandal. It's sweeping up senior functionaries of the previous government, implicates the last president (and the one before that), and many business people have already turned themselves in. Also, it was d… read more...

Impolitic Politics

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-08 10:47:33:000

Back to Argentina, back to the big city, back to a massive new corruption and bribery scandal. It's sweeping up senior functionaries of the previous government, implicates the last president (and the one before that), and many business people have already turned themselves in. Also, it was d… read more...

Fault Lines In The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-08 03:21:41:000

Markets often fail to predict major market-moving events even though in retrospect, they should have been obvious to anticipate. A prime example of such a failure was the 2008 global market bust, which followed the extraordinary U.S. housing and credit market bubble. An earlier example was t… read more...

Fault Lines In The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-08 03:21:41:000

Markets often fail to predict major market-moving events even though in retrospect, they should have been obvious to anticipate. A prime example of such a failure was the 2008 global market bust, which followed the extraordinary U.S. housing and credit market bubble. An earlier example was t… read more...

Country Risk: A Midyear Update For 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 07:40:29:000

While political and trade wars are brewing around the world, centered on globalization, the enduring truth is that the globalization genie is out of the bottle, and no political force can put it back. Encouraged to spread their bets around the world, investors have shed some of the home bias i… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 05:47:15:000

By Jill Mislinski Three of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Friday, August 6, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 11.47%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 6.61%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 3.10… read more...

The Threat Of A Trade War To The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-07 03:00:08:000

Original Post By Stuart Burns Many had hoped the announcement last month of 10% tariffs on China would be the signal for serious negotiations between the two trading partners, that China may come to the table and be willing to discuss some of the U.S.s genuine concerns about … read more...

Heightened Volatility Rattles Global Markets, But The U.S. Economy Shows No Signs Of Weakening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-04 01:40:59:000

By Clas Olsson, CIO, Senior Portfolio Manager on Aug. 2, 2018, in Equities So how did earnings expectations respond to the second-quarter pickup in volatility? For international markets, the second quarter of 2018 was marked by continued volatility. Quantitative tightening, balance… read more...

Heightened Volatility Rattles Global Markets, But The U.S. Economy Shows No Signs Of Weakening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-04 01:40:59:000

By Clas Olsson, CIO, Senior Portfolio Manager on Aug. 2, 2018, in Equities So how did earnings expectations respond to the second-quarter pickup in volatility? For international markets, the second quarter of 2018 was marked by continued volatility. Quantitative tightening, balance… read more...

Heightened Volatility Rattles Global Markets, But The U.S. Economy Shows No Signs Of Weakening

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-04 01:40:59:000

By Clas Olsson, CIO, Senior Portfolio Manager on Aug. 2, 2018, in Equities So how did earnings expectations respond to the second-quarter pickup in volatility? For international markets, the second quarter of 2018 was marked by continued volatility. Quantitative tightening, balance… read more...

'Growth' Still Has Gas Left In The Tank - July 2018 Market Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 10:27:31:000

Data Source: Bloomberg Growth Still Has Some Gas Left in the Tank Source: istockphoto As we write this July 2018 Market Commentary, the U.S. technology and communication sector, which had sharply reversed following poor 2Q earnings releases from FAANG bellwether… read more...

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - August 2, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 02:29:03:000

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged higher in July, inching up to an annualized 4.9% - slightly above the previous month's estimate . The projected return over the "risk-free" rate is a long-run estimate for GMI, an unmanaged market value-weighted portfolio that … read more...

Global Asset Allocation Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-03 01:59:47:000

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week , an exchange of [[TIP]] for [[SHY]]. Interest rates are on the rise again, the 10… read more...

Investing For The 'Long Run'? You May Want To Consider This

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 09:55:57:000

While this blog's day is done…thought I'd offer a simple fact sheet to reference when discussing where and among whom the global population is growing, stalling, and/or shrinking. This article breaks down the world into four groups of nations based on the World Bank's gross national income (... read more...

Investing For The 'Long Run'? You May Want To Consider This

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 09:55:57:000

While this blog's day is done…thought I'd offer a simple fact sheet to reference when discussing where and among whom the global population is growing, stalling, and/or shrinking. This article breaks down the world into four groups of nations based on the World Bank's gross national income (... read more...

Happy 10-Year Anniversary Of QE!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 05:14:57:000

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Happy 10-Year Anniversary Of QE!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-08-01 05:14:57:000

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As QE Era Ends, Income Trumps Total Return

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 21:11:08:000

Rieder and Russell Brownback argue that as we depart the era of QE, where rising tides lifted all boats, the income component of total return becomes ever more vital to investor prospects. The Necker cube is the name given to an optical illusion that was published in 1832 by Swiss crysta… read more...

As QE Era Ends, Income Trumps Total Return

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 21:11:08:000

Rieder and Russell Brownback argue that as we depart the era of QE, where rising tides lifted all boats, the income component of total return becomes ever more vital to investor prospects. The Necker cube is the name given to an optical illusion that was published in 1832 by Swiss crysta… read more...

Taxable Fixed Income Q2 2018 Review And Outlook

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 07:00:39:000

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World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-31 04:38:03:000

By Jill Mislinski Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Friday, July 30, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 10.89%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.82%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 3.44%…. read more...

Do You Know What You Really Own In Your Emerging Market Funds?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-30 14:16:21:000

In 2017, emerging markets funds outperformed U.S. markets - the biggest emerging market ETF, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: IEMG ), rose 37%, while the largest U.S. ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ), rose 21%. 1 Why? Most news outlets and pundits reference … read more...

Crash Test Dummies

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-30 10:24:21:000

By Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income Dropping the threat of higher auto tariffs was an important step back from a global trade war. Some people like things shiny and new. Others prefer the proven and time-worn. As far as automobiles go, I'm deeply rooted in cars from the… read more...

KKR Insights Global Macro Trends: New Playbook Required

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-30 03:38:27:000

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The Next 18 Months

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-30 02:21:36:000

No one doubts that Trump's economic agenda, especially the tax cuts, will be a shot of adrenalin for our economy near term. However most of the pundits/skeptics feel that the afterglow will dissipate rapidly as we move into 2019 and beyond. We disagree! The pundits/skeptics look at each piece … read more...

Investing Newsletter - July 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-29 10:22:09:000

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Quarterly Market Review Q2 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-29 10:06:03:000

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Marc Faber Is Back!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-26 05:18:16:000

Marc Faber returns on this week's edition of the radio show. It's unfortunate that "hate speech" arbitrarily defined and dictated by the left is suppressing free speech and the search for objective truth. "Thank God white people populated America," uttered by Marc might have been said in a… read more...

Marc Faber Is Back!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-26 05:18:16:000

Marc Faber returns on this week's edition of the radio show. It's unfortunate that "hate speech" arbitrarily defined and dictated by the left is suppressing free speech and the search for objective truth. "Thank God white people populated America," uttered by Marc might have been said in a… read more...

Marc Faber Is Back!

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-26 05:18:16:000

Marc Faber returns on this week's edition of the radio show. It's unfortunate that "hate speech" arbitrarily defined and dictated by the left is suppressing free speech and the search for objective truth. "Thank God white people populated America," uttered by Marc might have been said in a… read more...

China Tries To Fight Tariffs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-25 11:19:16:000

As we talked a few letters back about the prospect for protectionism and tariffs turning into currency wars, which then have a tendency to turn into hot wars, it is largely apparent this week things have certainly escalated. The PBOC has decided to fight Trump and his tariffs with a little bit… read more...

Mid-Year Global Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-25 07:52:37:000

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World Central Banks Doing The Heavy Stock Market Lifting

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-25 05:56:05:000

The purpose of this article is to graphically show and describe how the central banks ((CB)) of most countries have been supporting asset prices with their balance sheets. The central bank with the most experience in supporting markets is the Central Bank of Japan (BOJ). The chart below show… read more...

Where To Invest Your Money Today (Part 1 Of 2)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-24 20:06:43:000

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Hello again everyone, welcome back to the Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. This is episode number 18. Tiho, my friend, it's great to speak with you again today. I understand we're going to be doing a two-part podcast. Today will be the first part of that. Please … read more...

Regional ETFs - What To Know Before You Buy Them

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-24 15:17:00:000

In my last article , I wrote a few words about problematic diversification in a new communication services index/ETF. It is true that similar issues are not uncommon. Today, I want to open up another interesting topic. Regional investing. If you want to get global exposition, you can do it in… read more...

Global Economic Perspective: July

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-24 06:14:56:000

By Christopher J. Molumphy, CFA Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group; David Zahn, CFA, FRM Head of European Fixed Income, Senior Vice President, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group; John Beck Director of Fixed Income, London Senior Vice P… read more...

U.S. As Revisionist Power Remains Biggest Risk For Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-21 08:30:14:000

A new front opened in the effort by the Trump Administration to reorient the global political economy. Trade actions, including the claim that steel and aluminum from Canada, Europe, and Japan are threats to US national security, have been coupled now with an attack on EU commercial practice… read more...

U.S. As Revisionist Power Remains Biggest Risk For Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-21 08:30:14:000

A new front opened in the effort by the Trump Administration to reorient the global political economy. Trade actions, including the claim that steel and aluminum from Canada, Europe, and Japan are threats to US national security, have been coupled now with an attack on EU commercial practice… read more...

U.S. As Revisionist Power Remains Biggest Risk For Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-21 08:30:14:000

A new front opened in the effort by the Trump Administration to reorient the global political economy. Trade actions, including the claim that steel and aluminum from Canada, Europe, and Japan are threats to US national security, have been coupled now with an attack on EU commercial practice… read more...

Decoupling Reborn

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-20 03:44:30:000

The term "decoupling" was invented in early 2008 really because of oil prices. It was widely believed that though the US economy might stumble that year (because of nothing other than subprime mortgages, naturally) the rest of the world would be insulated from any fallout. EM economies like Ch… read more...

Shifting Tides: Policy Challenges And Opportunities For The G-20

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-19 02:46:19:000

By Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund The artist Claude Monet once said, "I worked without stopping, for the tide at this moment is just as I need it." As the Group of Twenty finance ministers gather this week at the banks of the Rio de la Plata in Bu… read more...

What Will Happen When The Market Has A Down Year?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-19 02:00:39:000

Global equity markets continued to advance. Last week's newsletter noted the importance of closing the week above the all-important 2750 level in the EMINI SP500 Sept contract. We knew this level was huge, considering the close below on June 29th sent the contract below our 7-week moving avera… read more...

Perspectives On Disruption

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-18 07:56:11:000

By Stephen H. Dover, CFA Executive Vice President, Head of Equities As our analysts and researchers travel the world surveying businesses, they hear a lot about disruption - the ability of new, often technology-backed companies to disrupt the status quo. Yet, our experience and insight te… read more...

World Debt Explodes: $30 Trillion In 5 Quarters

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-18 03:49:29:000

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Tariffs, Earnings And Politics: What's Moving Markets This Week?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-18 03:42:57:000

By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Jul 16, 2018, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Global summits and key data releases top the list of what to watch There is no shortage of events to watch this week: The European Union and China will meet t… read more...

Gauging The Market Impact Of Global Trade Tensions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-17 15:37:55:000

Global trade tensions are earning investor attention, but how might they affect markets and portfolios? Isabelle looks to some new BlackRock analysis for answers. Global trade disputes are the subject of nearly daily headlines. Tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and China risk breaking… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-17 06:11:39:000

By Jill Mislinski Three of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, July 16, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 7.43%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.67%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 1.82%…. read more...

Russell Napier Warns Of Global Monetary Breakdown

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-17 05:59:10:000

By FS Staff Listen to this podcast on our site by clicking here or subscribe for a free trial by clicking here . FS Insider recently interviewed Russell Napier, well-known financial historian and co-founder of the Electronic Research Interchange ((ERIC)), to discuss a breakdow… read more...

The Global Expansion: Still Strong But Less Even, More Fragile, Under Threat

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-17 03:26:17:000

By Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research at IMF Amid rising tensions over international trade, the broad global expansion that began roughly two years ago has plateaued and become less balanced. In our latest World Economic Outlook Update , we continue to proj… read more...

10 For 2018 - Midyear Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-17 03:16:32:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities, Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Class, Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income, and Anthony D. Tutrone, Global Head of Alternatives In January, the heads of our four investm… read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-16 08:09:30:000

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on This Week in Money talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. Here is a direct audio link beginning at 11:41 on the play bar . Unfortunately the sound recording is poor for this segment. Disclosure: Read more ….. read more...

Is The Fed's Script Already Written?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-16 02:16:25:000

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Market Voice: The Ebb And Flow In Global Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-14 07:19:21:000

By Pierre Vidal The March Market Voice focused on three factors which explained the seemingly perverse EUR strength in the face of an increasing USD interest rate advantage: The EUR was historically cheap in real terms when it bottomed. Central bank - especially China - diversifica… read more...

Market Voice: The Ebb And Flow In Global Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-14 07:19:21:000

By Pierre Vidal The March Market Voice focused on three factors which explained the seemingly perverse EUR strength in the face of an increasing USD interest rate advantage: The EUR was historically cheap in real terms when it bottomed. Central bank - especially China - diversifica… read more...

Harmonic Equity Returns Hide Dissonant Market Notes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 06:32:57:000

By Sharon E. Fay, CFA Global developed equity markets rose in apparent harmony during the second quarter, as if they were all singing from the same sheet. But beneath the returns, multiple risks are fomenting disquiet, and five points of dissonance warrant closer attention. Considering t… read more...

Harmonic Equity Returns Hide Dissonant Market Notes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 06:32:57:000

By Sharon E. Fay, CFA Global developed equity markets rose in apparent harmony during the second quarter, as if they were all singing from the same sheet. But beneath the returns, multiple risks are fomenting disquiet, and five points of dissonance warrant closer attention. Considering t… read more...

Harmonic Equity Returns Hide Dissonant Market Notes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 06:32:57:000

By Sharon E. Fay, CFA Global developed equity markets rose in apparent harmony during the second quarter, as if they were all singing from the same sheet. But beneath the returns, multiple risks are fomenting disquiet, and five points of dissonance warrant closer attention. Considering t… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 06:13:00:000

By Jill Mislinski Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, July 9, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 6.28%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.14%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gain… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 06:13:00:000

By Jill Mislinski Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, July 9, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 6.28%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.14%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gain… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-11 06:13:00:000

By Jill Mislinski Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, July 9, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 6.28%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.14%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gain… read more...

Chart Of The Week: Cracks Appearing In Global Cyclicals Vs Defensives

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-09 17:04:39:000

This week it's global cyclicals vs defensives. Last week we talked about the yield curve, which is something a lot of people are talking about, but when it comes to global cyclicals vs defensives this is something that we feel a lot of people are missing, as cracks are starting to appear. Th… read more...

Chart Of The Week: Cracks Appearing In Global Cyclicals Vs Defensives

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-09 17:04:39:000

This week it's global cyclicals vs defensives. Last week we talked about the yield curve, which is something a lot of people are talking about, but when it comes to global cyclicals vs defensives this is something that we feel a lot of people are missing, as cracks are starting to appear. Th… read more...

A Stagflationary Storm Is Brewing, Warns Greg Weldon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-06 04:50:52:000

By FS Staff Listen to this podcast on our site by clicking here or subscribe on iTunes here In a recent hour-long interview with Financial Sense Newshour , Greg Weldon at Weldon Online discussed his just-released 150-page special report, "Shelter from the Storm," looking at … read more...

A Stagflationary Storm Is Brewing, Warns Greg Weldon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-06 04:50:52:000

By FS Staff Listen to this podcast on our site by clicking here or subscribe on iTunes here In a recent hour-long interview with Financial Sense Newshour , Greg Weldon at Weldon Online discussed his just-released 150-page special report, "Shelter from the Storm," looking at … read more...

A Stagflationary Storm Is Brewing, Warns Greg Weldon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-06 04:50:52:000

By FS Staff Listen to this podcast on our site by clicking here or subscribe on iTunes here In a recent hour-long interview with Financial Sense Newshour , Greg Weldon at Weldon Online discussed his just-released 150-page special report, "Shelter from the Storm," looking at … read more...

Near-Stagnant Exports Push Global Manufacturing PMI To 11-Month Low

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-05 05:08:56:000

Worldwide manufacturers reported the weakest rise in export orders for two years in June, contributing to the slowest improvement in business conditions for almost a year. Concerns about escalating trade wars also pushed business confidence down to a 19-month low. Prices meanwhile rose at the … read more...

The Progression Of America's Decline

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-05 02:48:02:000

Richard Maybury and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week's radio program. Historian and free-market advocate Richard Maybury helps us assess the stage of America's decline as a global power through the discussion of topics like the following: "What Trump does not know about his forei… read more...

On China And Politics With Dan David

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-04 06:44:03:000

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA, Director of Research On last Fridays podcast, we had a conversation with Dan David, Co-founder of GeoInvesting, who was profiled in the documentary China Hustle for his work uncovering Chinese frauds that were listed on U.S. stock exchanges. David says … read more...

Up In Quality In Credit

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-03 23:36:12:000

Key points Rising economic uncertainty argues for exposure to higher-quality positions in credit. Global equity markets fell last week, and oil prices rose. The U.S. dollar strengthened. China's Shanghai Composite Index entered a bear market. The June U.S. employment report is unlikely… read more...

And So The Second Half Begins

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-02 20:58:24:000

It is, of course, a holiday-shortened week in the U.S., but it's a critical week nonetheless. I meant to pen a comprehensive first-half market review for my readers on this platform over the weekend, but I ended up spending pretty much the entirety of Saturday and Sunday indoors, implementi… read more...

A New Geography Of Development Finance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-01 08:21:39:000

Especially since the early 2000s, large emerging countries have become important providers of development funds. Shifting wealth has allowed governments to tap a bigger pool of 'transformative infrastructure finance' (Xu and Carey, 2017) and to choose from more financing options. From a long-t… read more...

A New Geography Of Development Finance

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-07-01 08:21:39:000

Especially since the early 2000s, large emerging countries have become important providers of development funds. Shifting wealth has allowed governments to tap a bigger pool of 'transformative infrastructure finance' (Xu and Carey, 2017) and to choose from more financing options. From a long-t… read more...

2018 Global Market Outlook - Q3 Update: Trade-War Tightrope

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 06:38:32:000

Synopsis The two key global market trends of early 2018 - U.S. growth leadership and the U.S. dollar bounce - have probably run their course. Be alert for an escalation in the trade war issue , and keep an eye on the yield curve for a U.S. recession warning, although a recession seems unlik… read more...

2018 Global Market Outlook - Q3 Update: Trade-War Tightrope

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 06:38:32:000

Synopsis The two key global market trends of early 2018 - U.S. growth leadership and the U.S. dollar bounce - have probably run their course. Be alert for an escalation in the trade war issue , and keep an eye on the yield curve for a U.S. recession warning, although a recession seems unlik… read more...

2018 Global Market Outlook - Q3 Update: Trade-War Tightrope

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 06:38:32:000

Synopsis The two key global market trends of early 2018 - U.S. growth leadership and the U.S. dollar bounce - have probably run their course. Be alert for an escalation in the trade war issue , and keep an eye on the yield curve for a U.S. recession warning, although a recession seems unlik… read more...

There Is Only One Global Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 06:07:17:000

IHS Markit reported last week that its composite Purchasing Managers Index ((PMI)) rebounded slightly in its first reading for June 2018. In January, the index had managed nearly 59, the highest in a very long time. It was taken as a definitive sign that Europe's economy was not only booming, … read more...

There Is Only One Global Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 06:07:17:000

IHS Markit reported last week that its composite Purchasing Managers Index ((PMI)) rebounded slightly in its first reading for June 2018. In January, the index had managed nearly 59, the highest in a very long time. It was taken as a definitive sign that Europe's economy was not only booming, … read more...

There Is Only One Global Trade War

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 06:07:17:000

IHS Markit reported last week that its composite Purchasing Managers Index ((PMI)) rebounded slightly in its first reading for June 2018. In January, the index had managed nearly 59, the highest in a very long time. It was taken as a definitive sign that Europe's economy was not only booming, … read more...

Prometheus Unbound

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 04:19:49:000

"Trust my folly then, since it is best for a man truly wise to be thought a fool." - Aeschylus, Prometheus Bound Watching with interest "risk-off" unfolding with emerging markets ((EM)) continuing to bleed, thanks to the ratcheting up in the trade war rhetoric, leading to more market tur… read more...

Prometheus Unbound

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 04:19:49:000

"Trust my folly then, since it is best for a man truly wise to be thought a fool." - Aeschylus, Prometheus Bound Watching with interest "risk-off" unfolding with emerging markets ((EM)) continuing to bleed, thanks to the ratcheting up in the trade war rhetoric, leading to more market tur… read more...

Prometheus Unbound

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 04:19:49:000

"Trust my folly then, since it is best for a man truly wise to be thought a fool." - Aeschylus, Prometheus Bound Watching with interest "risk-off" unfolding with emerging markets ((EM)) continuing to bleed, thanks to the ratcheting up in the trade war rhetoric, leading to more market tur… read more...

Economic Preparedness: The Need For Fiscal Space

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 03:55:15:000

By Vikram Haksar, Chief of the Advanced Economies and Multilateral Surveillance Issues Division in the IMFs Strategy Policy and Review department; Marialuz Moreno Badia, a deputy division chief in the IMFs Fiscal Affairs Department; Catherine Pattillo is an Assistant Director,… read more...

Economic Preparedness: The Need For Fiscal Space

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 03:55:15:000

By Vikram Haksar, Chief of the Advanced Economies and Multilateral Surveillance Issues Division in the IMFs Strategy Policy and Review department; Marialuz Moreno Badia, a deputy division chief in the IMFs Fiscal Affairs Department; Catherine Pattillo is an Assistant Director,… read more...

Economic Preparedness: The Need For Fiscal Space

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-28 03:55:15:000

By Vikram Haksar, Chief of the Advanced Economies and Multilateral Surveillance Issues Division in the IMFs Strategy Policy and Review department; Marialuz Moreno Badia, a deputy division chief in the IMFs Fiscal Affairs Department; Catherine Pattillo is an Assistant Director,… read more...

Crescat Capital End Of June 2018 Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-27 05:48:52:000

Read more … read more...

Global Debt Binge Setting Us Up For A Pounding Economic Headache

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-27 04:14:23:000

Anyone doubting that there is a material risk that that the next global economic recession will be of the more severe than normal variety has not been paying attention to the massive build-up in global debt levels over the past decade. Nor have they been paying attention to the unusually low i… read more...

What's In Store For Markets In The Second Half?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-27 02:38:13:000

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Jun 25, 2018, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Five trends to watch for during the remainder of 2018. We are coming to the mid-year point for 2018, and the past six months have felt like six years. … read more...

Building Custom Portfolios With Broad-Based ETFs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 11:09:10:000

This week's Barron's did a deep dive on ESG investing. If you're new to the concept, E stands for environmental, S for social and G for governance. You also see the term sustainable and sometimes impact used interchangeably with ESG. One of the articles was titled Getting Started in Sus… read more...

Building Custom Portfolios With Broad-Based ETFs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 11:09:10:000

This week's Barron's did a deep dive on ESG investing. If you're new to the concept, E stands for environmental, S for social and G for governance. You also see the term sustainable and sometimes impact used interchangeably with ESG. One of the articles was titled Getting Started in Sus… read more...

Trade Wars: Don't Panic, Prepare

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 10:37:20:000

Key points We see solid fundamentals underpinning economic growth, but rising trade tensions increase uncertainty and may dent business confidence. Emerging markets led stocks down. The U.S. dollar firmed. Equity and bond funds saw the biggest weekly outflows in over three years. P… read more...

Trade Wars: Don't Panic, Prepare

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 10:37:20:000

Key points We see solid fundamentals underpinning economic growth, but rising trade tensions increase uncertainty and may dent business confidence. Emerging markets led stocks down. The U.S. dollar firmed. Equity and bond funds saw the biggest weekly outflows in over three years. P… read more...

Blockchain Exposure With Reality Shares Nasdaq NexGen Economy ETF (BLCN)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 06:21:30:000

Bitcoin mania (and related cryptocurrency) mania was one of leading stories towards the tail end of last year. Bitcoin gained around 2,000% in 2017, but has since fallen to its present value of around $6,600, which is around one-third of its peak value last year. Bitcoin Close Price … read more...

Blockchain Exposure With Reality Shares Nasdaq NexGen Economy ETF (BLCN)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 06:21:30:000

Bitcoin mania (and related cryptocurrency) mania was one of leading stories towards the tail end of last year. Bitcoin gained around 2,000% in 2017, but has since fallen to its present value of around $6,600, which is around one-third of its peak value last year. Bitcoin Close Price … read more...

Watching And Waiting

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 00:11:05:000

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Watching And Waiting

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-25 00:11:05:000

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Will Global Trade Threats Derail Global Growth?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-22 03:32:23:000

Escalating trade tensions, rising oil prices and higher interest rates are starting to erode synchronized global growth. Beata Caranci, Chief Economist , TD Bank , talks to Kim Parlee about how these events may play out and what is in store for the rest of the Read more … read more...

Will Global Trade Threats Derail Global Growth?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-22 03:32:23:000

Escalating trade tensions, rising oil prices and higher interest rates are starting to erode synchronized global growth. Beata Caranci, Chief Economist , TD Bank , talks to Kim Parlee about how these events may play out and what is in store for the rest of the Read more … read more...

Will Global Trade Threats Derail Global Growth?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-22 03:32:23:000

Escalating trade tensions, rising oil prices and higher interest rates are starting to erode synchronized global growth. Beata Caranci, Chief Economist , TD Bank , talks to Kim Parlee about how these events may play out and what is in store for the rest of the Read more … read more...

Run Over By A Benz

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-22 00:15:38:000

There was notable news with regard to the market's main risk narrative on Thursday, and I think it's worth documenting it for readers here. When I talk about the "main risk narrative", I'm of course talking about trade tensions. It's getting harder and harder for analysts and officials to do… read more...

Run Over By A Benz

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-22 00:15:38:000

There was notable news with regard to the market's main risk narrative on Thursday, and I think it's worth documenting it for readers here. When I talk about the "main risk narrative", I'm of course talking about trade tensions. It's getting harder and harder for analysts and officials to do… read more...

Run Over By A Benz

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-22 00:15:38:000

There was notable news with regard to the market's main risk narrative on Thursday, and I think it's worth documenting it for readers here. When I talk about the "main risk narrative", I'm of course talking about trade tensions. It's getting harder and harder for analysts and officials to do… read more...

Markets Facing A 'Time Of Reckoning,' Says OMFIF's David Marsh

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-20 04:05:06:000

By FS Staff Listen to this podcast on our site by clicking here or subscribe today by clicking here . Things are likely to get bumpy, and a "time of reckoning" is coming for global markets and economies, David Marsh, co-founder and chairman of the Official Monetary and Finan… read more...

The Trade War's Collateral Damage

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-20 01:59:08:000

In choosing to ratchet up trade tensions with China at this juncture, the Trump administration seems to be overlooking the importance of both the emerging market economies and China to the global economy. This is all the more difficult to understand considering that according to IMF estimate… read more...

What's The Mid-Year Economic Outlook For World Cup Countries?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-19 17:24:06:000

As we predicted in our outlook six months ago, the first half of 2018 was marked by rising geopolitical tensions, major fiscal and political changes, and diverging monetary policy. These factors created a rise in volatility that was made more pronounced by the global economy nearing the end of… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-19 03:03:24:000

By Jill Mislinski Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, June 18, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 5.13%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 3.75%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a gai… read more...

Global Economic Perspective: June

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-19 01:56:25:000

By Christopher J. Molumphy, CFA Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, David Zahn, CFA, FRM Head of European Fixed Income, Senior Vice President, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, John Beck Director of Fixed Income, London Senior Vice P… read more...

The Fed, The ECB And 'The Most Important Week Of The Year'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-16 14:15:11:000

Last Friday, in what was, at the time, the latest edition of their Global FX Weekly series, BofAML made the following "subtle" suggestion with regard to how critical this week could be for global markets: Fast forward to last Sunday and someone at Bloomberg got a hold of that note and used i… read more...

The Fed, The ECB And 'The Most Important Week Of The Year'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-16 14:15:11:000

Last Friday, in what was, at the time, the latest edition of their Global FX Weekly series, BofAML made the following "subtle" suggestion with regard to how critical this week could be for global markets: Fast forward to last Sunday and someone at Bloomberg got a hold of that note and used i… read more...

The Fed, The ECB And 'The Most Important Week Of The Year'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-16 14:15:11:000

Last Friday, in what was, at the time, the latest edition of their Global FX Weekly series, BofAML made the following "subtle" suggestion with regard to how critical this week could be for global markets: Fast forward to last Sunday and someone at Bloomberg got a hold of that note and used i… read more...

Monthly PMI Overview June 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-14 09:06:14:000

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Monthly PMI Overview June 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-14 09:06:14:000

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3 Things To Think About When It Comes To Trade

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-13 05:26:34:000

As the Trump administration continues to threaten tariffs targeting a variety of imported goods, from electronics to washing machines to automobiles, many market commentators have suggested the US-led trade skirmishes could turn into a trade war. While the fear of a potential trade war has h… read more...

Jeffrey Gundlach - 'Push Me, Pull You' (Slides)

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-13 02:34:32:000

Jeffrey Gundlach hosts DoubleLine Total Return webcast for the month of June 2018, titled, Push Me, Pull You. TAB I - U.S. & Global Markets Gross Domestic Product - Real and Nominal Source: Bloomberg GDP = Gross Domestic Product includes the total amount of goods … read more...

Is The World (Cup) Half Empty Or Half Full?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-13 02:15:55:000

By Gary Alexander This is "the end of the world as we know it," or so it seems. On Friday, as he left for the G7 meeting in Canada, President Trump said, "We have a world to run" and we should "let Russia come back in because we should have Russia at the negotiating table." Then he walked … read more...

Trade Takes Center Stage As Long-Term Alliances Become Strained

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-13 01:40:56:000

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Jun 11, 2018, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Interest rate decisions are also in the spotlight I have been talking about the theme of disruption for well over than a year. Last week's tumultuous G… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-12 05:33:30:000

By Jill Mislinski Six of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, June 11, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 4.94%. In second place is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.05%. In third place is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with … read more...

New Opportunities In Chinese Equities

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-11 09:59:40:000

Key points The gradual inclusion of China A-shares in MSCI indexes creates new opportunities in Chinese equities, supporting our preference for EM Asia. Last week's market tone was risk-on. Global stocks rallied, led by the U.S. Brazil's real plummeted and then rebounded, while the eu… read more...

Corporations continue profit-shifting to tax havens even with lower tax rates: WSJ

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-11 08:10:50:000

Multinational companies move about 40% of the profits they earn outside of their home countries into tax havens, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing a study by economists Thomas Torslov and Ludvig Wier of the University of Copenhagen and Gabriel Zucman of the University of … read more...

Crescat Capital May 2018 Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-11 07:20:43:000

Originally posted on Read more … read more...

Competing Narratives

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-11 02:04:36:000

I have two objectives with this week's missive. I want to contrast what I think are the two prevailing narratives used to explain markets in the first half of the year. And then I want to have a look at the durability of large-cap equity earnings because it seems to be crucial to what happens … read more...

Buffett And Dimon Play The Long Ball

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-11 01:47:27:000

Warren Buffett's and Jamie Dimon's editorial in the WSJ, followed by their interview on CNBC on Friday, was another great learning experience from the best of the best for those wanting to learn how to successfully invest and create wealth. The main thrust of their comments was that CEOs sho… read more...

'Will The Real Global Economy Please Stand Up'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-10 12:18:45:000

To say I've become skeptical of "markets" and their movements is probably an understatement. However, rather than waste more time trying to make sense of these skewed markets, I believe real economic activity is more accurately represented by changing populations and their energy consumption. … read more...

Trade Tensions Risk Undermining The G-7

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-10 08:46:15:000

Originally published June 9, 2018 The U.S. could be backed into a corner, making discussion of any other critical issue all but impossible. Pity the participants in the Group of Seven meeting this weekend. The summit, which has been a collaborative gathering for like-minded countries for… read more...

OANDA Market Insights With Jazz FM - 8 June 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-10 03:10:16:000

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam and Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart look back at the weeks business and market news. This weeks big stories: G7 talks weigh on markets, sterling falls on Brexit proposals, ECB remarks hit Read more … read more...

The Federal Reserve: Banker To The World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-09 16:32:12:000

Like it or not, the Federal Reserve System in the United States is, more or less, a central banker to the world. This is most obvious in times of financial turmoil. Just go back and re-read the memoir of former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, The Courage to Act: A Memoir of … read more...

China Vs. The Rest: Double The Growth Expectations At Comparable Valuations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 14:26:48:000

By Bradley Krom, Associate Director of Research and Matt Wagner, Research Analyst Higher earnings growth tends to coincide with valuation premiums, and Chinese equities are no exception. By nature of the country's fast-paced economic growth and the rising market capitalization of the Informa… read more...

China Vs. The Rest: Double The Growth Expectations At Comparable Valuations

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 14:26:48:000

By Bradley Krom, Associate Director of Research and Matt Wagner, Research Analyst Higher earnings growth tends to coincide with valuation premiums, and Chinese equities are no exception. By nature of the country's fast-paced economic growth and the rising market capitalization of the Informa… read more...

CEO View: What's Changed 10 Years After The Global Financial Crisis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 08:46:42:000

At Franklin Templeton's recent Global Investor Forum in New York, our CEO, Greg Johnson, participated in a panel discussion with three other CEOs in the financial services industry: James Gorman of Morgan Stanley, Jay Hooley of State Street and Barry Stowe of Jackson National Life. They discu… read more...

CEO View: What's Changed 10 Years After The Global Financial Crisis?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 08:46:42:000

At Franklin Templeton's recent Global Investor Forum in New York, our CEO, Greg Johnson, participated in a panel discussion with three other CEOs in the financial services industry: James Gorman of Morgan Stanley, Jay Hooley of State Street and Barry Stowe of Jackson National Life. They discu… read more...

Lost Decades: Italy 3 - Japan 0

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 08:31:12:000

The last decade has not been good for many advanced economies. The Global Financial Crisis, a second recession in the Euro area and central banks hitting the zero lower bound have led to disappointing GDP growth rates. But GDP growth rates can be a misleading indicator about the true performan… read more...

Lost Decades: Italy 3 - Japan 0

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 08:31:12:000

The last decade has not been good for many advanced economies. The Global Financial Crisis, a second recession in the Euro area and central banks hitting the zero lower bound have led to disappointing GDP growth rates. But GDP growth rates can be a misleading indicator about the true performan… read more...

Markets Eyeing More Hikes Around The World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 06:43:07:000

Each week, we publish a Fixed Income Weekly , a recap of interest rate and credit markets in the US and around the world. In addition to charts and tables keeping track of performance and levels for fixed income assets in the US and around the world, we also present a weekly trade idea an… read more...

Markets Eyeing More Hikes Around The World

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-07 06:43:07:000

Each week, we publish a Fixed Income Weekly , a recap of interest rate and credit markets in the US and around the world. In addition to charts and tables keeping track of performance and levels for fixed income assets in the US and around the world, we also present a weekly trade idea an… read more...

It's A Dollar Double Whammy, Just Not Theirs

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-06 07:04:43:000

First it was inflation. No, it was nuclear war in Korea. Then something about T-bills and government debt. And the ECB tapering while others were, too. Of course, before any of those there was 2a7. There's always something, it seems, something different every time. Maybe it's not any of them? … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-05 06:13:51:000

By Jill Mislinski Five of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, June 4, 2018. The top performer this year is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 3.61%. In second is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.55%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 3.02%…. read more...

Political Event Risk Raises Stakes For Sudden Price Moves

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-05 06:08:38:000

By Bluford Putnam and Erik Norland Political risk is rising - elections in Mexico, Brazil and the U.S.; a leadership battle for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP); the U.S. planning protectionist trade tariffs against China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico; a looming Brexi… read more...

Global Manufacturing PMI At 9-Month Low Amid Near-Stagnation Of Worldwide Exports

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-04 11:44:02:000

PMI survey data indicate that global manufacturing growth eased to a nine-month low in May, largely reflecting a waning of global trade flows to the weakest for over one-and-a-half years. However, the US continued to show notable resilience to the wide trade slowdown. Manufacturing PMI at ni… read more...

We're Only In The Sixth Inning

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-04 00:40:01:000

There is no one better to ask than Warren Buffett about investing. The same can be said for asking Jamie Dimon for his perspective on the global economy, the financial markets and politics. We have known and worked with Jamie for nearly 35 years, since his early days as second in command and… read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 10:31:44:000

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on This Week in Money talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure Read more … read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 10:31:44:000

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on This Week in Money talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure Read more … read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 10:31:44:000

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on This Week in Money talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure Read more … read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 10:31:44:000

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on This Week in Money talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure Read more … read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 10:31:44:000

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on This Week in Money talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure Read more … read more...

Measuring The Market Impact Of Geopolitical Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 07:16:46:000

Estimating how - and exactly which - geopolitical events may affect markets and portfolios can be a challenge. Isabelle explains how our new BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard can help. Italian elections, Middle East tensions, trade frictionsgeopolitical risks abound. Yet estima… read more...

Measuring The Market Impact Of Geopolitical Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 07:16:46:000

Estimating how - and exactly which - geopolitical events may affect markets and portfolios can be a challenge. Isabelle explains how our new BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard can help. Italian elections, Middle East tensions, trade frictionsgeopolitical risks abound. Yet estima… read more...

Measuring The Market Impact Of Geopolitical Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 07:16:46:000

Estimating how - and exactly which - geopolitical events may affect markets and portfolios can be a challenge. Isabelle explains how our new BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard can help. Italian elections, Middle East tensions, trade frictionsgeopolitical risks abound. Yet estima… read more...

Measuring The Market Impact Of Geopolitical Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 07:16:46:000

Estimating how - and exactly which - geopolitical events may affect markets and portfolios can be a challenge. Isabelle explains how our new BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard can help. Italian elections, Middle East tensions, trade frictionsgeopolitical risks abound. Yet estima… read more...

Measuring The Market Impact Of Geopolitical Risks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-03 07:16:46:000

Estimating how - and exactly which - geopolitical events may affect markets and portfolios can be a challenge. Isabelle explains how our new BlackRock geopolitical risk dashboard can help. Italian elections, Middle East tensions, trade frictionsgeopolitical risks abound. Yet estima… read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

A Bad Blow For Global Growth

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-06-01 06:54:05:000

By Robert Carnell, Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia-Pacific Trump administration decides to put tariffs on steel and aluminium on Canada, Mexico, EU etc. With allies like these… After reflection, higher tariffs are still damaging to the US/global economy This is a bad day... read more...

Will China Export Volatility As Equity Markets Open?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-31 19:48:07:000

By John Lin China's markets are opening to the world - but be aware of the potential for unintended consequences. As more money flows into domestic Chinese stocks from abroad, more money is also flowing out of China, which may trigger volatility in regional markets. Global investors are … read more...

The Threat Of Surging Oil Prices

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-31 05:52:40:000

John Rubino and Michael Oliver return as guests on the radio program for this week. John discusses factors behind a surging oil price and what that means for consumer inflation and central bank policies in light of an increasingly fragile debt-ridden global economy. What impact do rising… read more...

Global Equity Fundamentals At A Cyclical Strong Point

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 23:52:27:000

Equity market fundamentals are looking pretty strong around the world. Key indicators like interest coverage ratios and profit margins have improved to cyclical highs. Interest coverage has also been helped by a couple of notable trends such as lower borrowing costs. But, somewhat counterint… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 15:23:17:000

By Jill Mislinski Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Tuesday, May 29, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.36%. In second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 2.36%. In third is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 1.89%… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 15:23:17:000

By Jill Mislinski Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Tuesday, May 29, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.36%. In second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 2.36%. In third is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 1.89%… read more...

Value Hunting Overseas

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 11:55:13:000

Expensive US Market In January, I wrote this article , warning about a possible downturn in the US stock market in light of the then all-time-high Warren Buffett Indicator (i.e., the Market-Cap-to-GDP ratio of 149% vs. the historical average of 75%). No matter whether you like the theory of… read more...

Value Hunting Overseas

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-30 11:55:13:000

Expensive US Market In January, I wrote this article , warning about a possible downturn in the US stock market in light of the then all-time-high Warren Buffett Indicator (i.e., the Market-Cap-to-GDP ratio of 149% vs. the historical average of 75%). No matter whether you like the theory of… read more...

Italy Crisis Pounds EUR, More To Come

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-29 07:41:38:000

Tuesday, May 29: Five things the markets are talking about Threat of Euro fragmentation U.S. Treasuries have rallied alongside a number of core-European bonds as the political crisis in Italy and Spain deepens, triggering risk-off trading across capital markets. The EUR (1.15… read more...

Italy Crisis Pounds EUR, More To Come

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-29 07:41:38:000

Tuesday, May 29: Five things the markets are talking about Threat of Euro fragmentation U.S. Treasuries have rallied alongside a number of core-European bonds as the political crisis in Italy and Spain deepens, triggering risk-off trading across capital markets. The EUR (1.15… read more...

Italy Crisis Pounds EUR, More To Come

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-29 07:41:38:000

Tuesday, May 29: Five things the markets are talking about Threat of Euro fragmentation U.S. Treasuries have rallied alongside a number of core-European bonds as the political crisis in Italy and Spain deepens, triggering risk-off trading across capital markets. The EUR (1.15… read more...

The Pundits Go Flip-Flopping Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-28 01:33:40:000

Ten days ago, the pundits or so-called experts on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News and other media outlets were predicting that the 10-year treasury was going to breach 3.15% and that the price of crude was going to push through $80 dollars/barrel… but no longer. Literally a week later, last week, ... read more...

The Pundits Go Flip-Flopping Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-28 01:33:40:000

Ten days ago, the pundits or so-called experts on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News and other media outlets were predicting that the 10-year treasury was going to breach 3.15% and that the price of crude was going to push through $80 dollars/barrel… but no longer. Literally a week later, last week, ... read more...

The Pundits Go Flip-Flopping Again

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-28 01:33:40:000

Ten days ago, the pundits or so-called experts on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News and other media outlets were predicting that the 10-year treasury was going to breach 3.15% and that the price of crude was going to push through $80 dollars/barrel… but no longer. Literally a week later, last week, ... read more...

Faking GDP Growth: In The U.S. And Elsewhere

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-27 07:15:05:000

Structural factors make low economic growth a virtual certainty in the US and most other developed countries. But that doesn't stop governments from trying to fake GDP growth. There's no way out of the quagmire, so governments will continue to borrow and spend until the end. Unless… read more...

Faking GDP Growth: In The U.S. And Elsewhere

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-27 07:15:05:000

Structural factors make low economic growth a virtual certainty in the US and most other developed countries. But that doesn't stop governments from trying to fake GDP growth. There's no way out of the quagmire, so governments will continue to borrow and spend until the end. Unless… read more...

Faking GDP Growth: In The U.S. And Elsewhere

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-27 07:15:05:000

Structural factors make low economic growth a virtual certainty in the US and most other developed countries. But that doesn't stop governments from trying to fake GDP growth. There's no way out of the quagmire, so governments will continue to borrow and spend until the end. Unless… read more...

Faking GDP Growth: In The U.S. And Elsewhere

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-27 07:15:05:000

Structural factors make low economic growth a virtual certainty in the US and most other developed countries. But that doesn't stop governments from trying to fake GDP growth. There's no way out of the quagmire, so governments will continue to borrow and spend until the end. Unless… read more...

Emerging Value Capital Management Q1 - Howard Hughes Sold, Tesla Short Closed; New Long Positions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 04:30:13:000

Emerging Value Capital Management commentary for the first quarter ended March 31, 2018. Dear Partners and Shareholders, For Q1-2018, Emerging Value Capital Management fund declined an estimated -2.9% net to investors. Stock markets worldwide were mixed with the All Country World Index (AC… read more...

Emerging Value Capital Management Q1 - Howard Hughes Sold, Tesla Short Closed; New Long Positions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 04:30:13:000

Emerging Value Capital Management commentary for the first quarter ended March 31, 2018. Dear Partners and Shareholders, For Q1-2018, Emerging Value Capital Management fund declined an estimated -2.9% net to investors. Stock markets worldwide were mixed with the All Country World Index (AC… read more...

Emerging Value Capital Management Q1 - Howard Hughes Sold, Tesla Short Closed; New Long Positions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 04:30:13:000

Emerging Value Capital Management commentary for the first quarter ended March 31, 2018. Dear Partners and Shareholders, For Q1-2018, Emerging Value Capital Management fund declined an estimated -2.9% net to investors. Stock markets worldwide were mixed with the All Country World Index (AC… read more...

Emerging Value Capital Management Q1 - Howard Hughes Sold, Tesla Short Closed; New Long Positions

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 04:30:13:000

Emerging Value Capital Management commentary for the first quarter ended March 31, 2018. Dear Partners and Shareholders, For Q1-2018, Emerging Value Capital Management fund declined an estimated -2.9% net to investors. Stock markets worldwide were mixed with the All Country World Index (AC… read more...

Emerging And Developed Markets Have Been Equally Volatile

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 01:45:38:000

Global Equity FVMR Snapshot Fundamentals: US still offers the highest ROE Global markets have a return on equity ((ROE)) of 14.0% and a 39.1% dividend payout ratio ((DPR)) according to consensus expectations. In 2018, Emerging markets are expected to be slightly less profitable with an RO… read more...

Emerging And Developed Markets Have Been Equally Volatile

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 01:45:38:000

Global Equity FVMR Snapshot Fundamentals: US still offers the highest ROE Global markets have a return on equity ((ROE)) of 14.0% and a 39.1% dividend payout ratio ((DPR)) according to consensus expectations. In 2018, Emerging markets are expected to be slightly less profitable with an RO… read more...

Emerging And Developed Markets Have Been Equally Volatile

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 01:45:38:000

Global Equity FVMR Snapshot Fundamentals: US still offers the highest ROE Global markets have a return on equity ((ROE)) of 14.0% and a 39.1% dividend payout ratio ((DPR)) according to consensus expectations. In 2018, Emerging markets are expected to be slightly less profitable with an RO… read more...

Emerging And Developed Markets Have Been Equally Volatile

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-24 01:45:38:000

Global Equity FVMR Snapshot Fundamentals: US still offers the highest ROE Global markets have a return on equity ((ROE)) of 14.0% and a 39.1% dividend payout ratio ((DPR)) according to consensus expectations. In 2018, Emerging markets are expected to be slightly less profitable with an RO… read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 10:50:46:000

Danielle was a guest with Kerry Lutz on The Financial Survival Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here. Here is a direct audio link. Disclosure: No Read more … read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 10:50:46:000

Danielle was a guest with Kerry Lutz on The Financial Survival Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here. Here is a direct audio link. Disclosure: No Read more … read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-23 10:50:46:000

Danielle was a guest with Kerry Lutz on The Financial Survival Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here. Here is a direct audio link. Disclosure: No Read more … read more...

Do You Own Enough International Stocks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 21:21:06:000

By Talley Lger, Equity Strategist In our conversations with investors, one of the most common questions we hear is: How much international exposure should we have in our equity portfolios? Admittedly, it is difficult to answer that question without knowing a numbe… read more...

Do You Own Enough International Stocks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 21:21:06:000

By Talley Lger, Equity Strategist In our conversations with investors, one of the most common questions we hear is: How much international exposure should we have in our equity portfolios? Admittedly, it is difficult to answer that question without knowing a numbe… read more...

Do You Own Enough International Stocks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 21:21:06:000

By Talley Lger, Equity Strategist In our conversations with investors, one of the most common questions we hear is: How much international exposure should we have in our equity portfolios? Admittedly, it is difficult to answer that question without knowing a numbe… read more...

Productivity Is The West's Conundrum

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 07:58:59:000

Original Post By Stuart Burns It is a question we often see on the financial pages of newspapers or news sites but rarely take time to seriously consider the consequences - why is the West apparently in a period of stagnant productivity growth? A recent article in The Telegraph … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 05:57:13:000

By Jill Mislinski Six of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, May 21, 2018. The top performer this year is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 6.12%. In second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 4.40%. In third is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 2.38%. … read more...

Global Economic Perspective: May

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-22 01:25:30:000

By Christopher J. Molumphy, CFA Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group; David Zahn, CFA, FRM Head of European Fixed Income, Senior Vice President, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group; John Beck Director of Fixed Income, London S… read more...

How To Choose The Best China ETF Allocation, After Vanguard's First All-China ETF

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 12:06:47:000

China has become a market too large to ignore, and a properly diversified, world-class investment portfolio should have a substantial allocation to China-related assets. Although China is now the 2nd largest stock market in the world by US dollar market cap, surpassing both Japan and the Europ… read more...

Summer Of Volatility: Building A Geopolitical Protector Portfolio

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-18 04:23:10:000

North Korean peace talks, a U.S. embassy in Jerusalem, a trade war with China, NAFTA negotiations and the Donald Trump presidency; all this amounts to a confluence of global risks and tensions. Marko Papic, Senior Vice President and Chief Geopolitical Strategist, BCA Research, speaks to K… read more...

Webcast: An Investment Playbook For Global Stagflation

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-17 14:52:58:000

Is Your Portfolio Prepared For Global Stagflation? Because if our analyst forecasts are correct, global growth is starting to slow and inflation is picking up. There are significant investing implications. We just hosted a special webcast on this very subject: "Investment Playbook … read more...

How In Sync Are Global Central Banks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 08:51:52:000

By Kevin Flanagan, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Without much fanfare, the Federal Reserve (Fed) provided its policy guidance earlier this month. Although no rate hike was implemented, the money and bond markets fully expect the U.S. central bank to continue on its tightening path for the… read more...

How In Sync Are Global Central Banks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 08:51:52:000

By Kevin Flanagan, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Without much fanfare, the Federal Reserve (Fed) provided its policy guidance earlier this month. Although no rate hike was implemented, the money and bond markets fully expect the U.S. central bank to continue on its tightening path for the… read more...

How In Sync Are Global Central Banks?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 08:51:52:000

By Kevin Flanagan, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Without much fanfare, the Federal Reserve (Fed) provided its policy guidance earlier this month. Although no rate hike was implemented, the money and bond markets fully expect the U.S. central bank to continue on its tightening path for the… read more...

Global Equity Valuations: Cheaper Now, But It's Still All Relative

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 03:26:30:000

The global equity market correction has driven a reset in a number of market metrics such as sentiment (both economic sentiment and investor sentiment), fund flows, positioning, volatility, and of particular interest - valuations. Yet as much as there has been a minor adjustment in valuations,… read more...

Global Equity Valuations: Cheaper Now, But It's Still All Relative

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 03:26:30:000

The global equity market correction has driven a reset in a number of market metrics such as sentiment (both economic sentiment and investor sentiment), fund flows, positioning, volatility, and of particular interest - valuations. Yet as much as there has been a minor adjustment in valuations,… read more...

Global Equity Valuations: Cheaper Now, But It's Still All Relative

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-16 03:26:30:000

The global equity market correction has driven a reset in a number of market metrics such as sentiment (both economic sentiment and investor sentiment), fund flows, positioning, volatility, and of particular interest - valuations. Yet as much as there has been a minor adjustment in valuations,… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 04:27:24:000

By Jill Mislinski Six of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, May 14, 2018. The top performer this year is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 5.42%. In second placec is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 5.16%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a ga… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 04:27:24:000

By Jill Mislinski Six of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, May 14, 2018. The top performer this year is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 5.42%. In second placec is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 5.16%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a ga… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-15 04:27:24:000

By Jill Mislinski Six of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, May 14, 2018. The top performer this year is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 5.42%. In second placec is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 5.16%. In third place is France's CAC 40 with a ga… read more...

Global Outlook: Papering Over The Cracks

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-12 05:32:45:000

By Global Economics Team As trade tensions mount, is the global economy heading into a storm? Read our latest economic update to see what our economists and strategists are thinking. Papering over the cracks 2017 provided plenty of upside growth surprises, which may have led to… read more...

Global Consumer Sentiment Supports Bullish Growth View

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-12 00:47:26:000

There is a little-watched and relatively obscure set of indicators produced by Thomson Reuters and Ipsos , called the primary consumer sentiment indexes. These provide a standardized approach to measuring consumer sentiment across a number of countries, and provide timely insight into consu… read more...

Talking Trade Tensions, Inflation And Volatility

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-11 06:24:31:000

By Stephen H. Dover, CFA Executive Vice President, Head of Equities; Christopher J. Molumphy, CFA Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group; Edward D. Perks, CFA Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Multi-… read more...

Putting America's Enormous $19.4 Trillion Economy Into Perspective By Comparing U.S. State GDPs To Entire Countries

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-10 04:41:42:000

The map above was created (with assistance from AEI's graphic design director Olivier Ballou) by matching the economic output (Gross Domestic Product) for each US state (and the District of Columbia) in 2017 to a foreign country with a comparable nominal GDP last year, using data from the BEA… read more...

Global Pensions Are The Next Major Crisis, Says Martin Armstrong

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-10 03:15:19:000

By FS Staff For issuers of debt (borrowers), interest rates are the cost to borrow funds; for buyers of debt (lenders), it is the rate of return they get for lending money. After the 2008 financial crisis, central banks dropped interest rates to the lowest levels in recorded history. Thi… read more...

Some Unpleasant Surprises About The Global Economy

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-09 03:13:32:000

Something unusual has happened to the global economic surprise indexes. Not only have the emerging markets and G10 indexes fallen sharply, but the breadth of global economic surprise indexes has dropped to levels rarely seen outside of recession. The chart in question comes from a broader … read more...

Is The 'Synchronized' Global Expansion Really In Sync?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-05-09 02:29:46:000

By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on May 7, 2018, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: While some countries economic expansions are aging, others are just getting started "Getting long in the tooth" is an interesting way to describe somet… read more...

How To Handle This Week's Mini Stock Market Crash

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 13:41:50:000

Jordan Roy-Byrn: Hello and welcome back to the Atlas Investor Podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for Episode Number 11. Well, Tiho it has been an interesting past couple of days for the market since we last recorded. Bond yields have surged higher and in recen… read more...

How To Handle This Week's Mini Stock Market Crash

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 13:41:50:000

Jordan Roy-Byrn: Hello and welcome back to the Atlas Investor Podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for Episode Number 11. Well, Tiho it has been an interesting past couple of days for the market since we last recorded. Bond yields have surged higher and in recen… read more...

How To Handle This Week's Mini Stock Market Crash

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-11 13:41:50:000

Jordan Roy-Byrn: Hello and welcome back to the Atlas Investor Podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for Episode Number 11. Well, Tiho it has been an interesting past couple of days for the market since we last recorded. Bond yields have surged higher and in recen… read more...

Clipping Half Your Coupon: January 2018 Market Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 08:58:31:000

Data Source: Bloomberg Clipping Half Your Coupon Source: Wikipedia. Labeled for reuse. Before the financial system went electronic, fixed income investors used to collect their interest by "clipping" their bearer bond coupons (unregistered of course) which were redeemed by a bank o… read more...

Clipping Half Your Coupon: January 2018 Market Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 08:58:31:000

Data Source: Bloomberg Clipping Half Your Coupon Source: Wikipedia. Labeled for reuse. Before the financial system went electronic, fixed income investors used to collect their interest by "clipping" their bearer bond coupons (unregistered of course) which were redeemed by a bank o… read more...

Clipping Half Your Coupon: January 2018 Market Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 08:58:31:000

Data Source: Bloomberg Clipping Half Your Coupon Source: Wikipedia. Labeled for reuse. Before the financial system went electronic, fixed income investors used to collect their interest by "clipping" their bearer bond coupons (unregistered of course) which were redeemed by a bank o… read more...

Clipping Half Your Coupon: January 2018 Market Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 08:58:31:000

Data Source: Bloomberg Clipping Half Your Coupon Source: Wikipedia. Labeled for reuse. Before the financial system went electronic, fixed income investors used to collect their interest by "clipping" their bearer bond coupons (unregistered of course) which were redeemed by a bank o… read more...

Clipping Half Your Coupon: January 2018 Market Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 08:58:31:000

Data Source: Bloomberg Clipping Half Your Coupon Source: Wikipedia. Labeled for reuse. Before the financial system went electronic, fixed income investors used to collect their interest by "clipping" their bearer bond coupons (unregistered of course) which were redeemed by a bank o… read more...

Central Banks Holding Steady, But Promise More Rate Hikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 06:35:43:000

By Ryan McMaken In all cases - The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the BofE, the BOJ, and the Bank of Australia - central bankers said they expected to raise rates more in the near future. Even at the Bank of Japan, which has been especially dovish and pro-QE in recent years, the bank scaled bac… read more...

Central Banks Holding Steady, But Promise More Rate Hikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 06:35:43:000

By Ryan McMaken In all cases - The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the BofE, the BOJ, and the Bank of Australia - central bankers said they expected to raise rates more in the near future. Even at the Bank of Japan, which has been especially dovish and pro-QE in recent years, the bank scaled bac… read more...

Central Banks Holding Steady, But Promise More Rate Hikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 06:35:43:000

By Ryan McMaken In all cases - The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the BofE, the BOJ, and the Bank of Australia - central bankers said they expected to raise rates more in the near future. Even at the Bank of Japan, which has been especially dovish and pro-QE in recent years, the bank scaled bac… read more...

Central Banks Holding Steady, But Promise More Rate Hikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 06:35:43:000

By Ryan McMaken In all cases - The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the BofE, the BOJ, and the Bank of Australia - central bankers said they expected to raise rates more in the near future. Even at the Bank of Japan, which has been especially dovish and pro-QE in recent years, the bank scaled bac… read more...

Central Banks Holding Steady, But Promise More Rate Hikes

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 06:35:43:000

By Ryan McMaken In all cases - The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the BofE, the BOJ, and the Bank of Australia - central bankers said they expected to raise rates more in the near future. Even at the Bank of Japan, which has been especially dovish and pro-QE in recent years, the bank scaled bac… read more...

Global Earnings Remain Robust

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 05:07:23:000

Investors may find comfort with one key fundamental: continuing robust expectations for global earnings. As we highlight in our Market Maps Monthly Performance Report for January, the consensus EPS growth forecast for the FTSE All-World Index is currently 16% for 2018. That's up from forecas… read more...

Global Earnings Remain Robust

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 05:07:23:000

Investors may find comfort with one key fundamental: continuing robust expectations for global earnings. As we highlight in our Market Maps Monthly Performance Report for January, the consensus EPS growth forecast for the FTSE All-World Index is currently 16% for 2018. That's up from forecas… read more...

Global Earnings Remain Robust

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 05:07:23:000

Investors may find comfort with one key fundamental: continuing robust expectations for global earnings. As we highlight in our Market Maps Monthly Performance Report for January, the consensus EPS growth forecast for the FTSE All-World Index is currently 16% for 2018. That's up from forecas… read more...

Global Earnings Remain Robust

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 05:07:23:000

Investors may find comfort with one key fundamental: continuing robust expectations for global earnings. As we highlight in our Market Maps Monthly Performance Report for January, the consensus EPS growth forecast for the FTSE All-World Index is currently 16% for 2018. That's up from forecas… read more...

Global Earnings Remain Robust

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-09 05:07:23:000

Investors may find comfort with one key fundamental: continuing robust expectations for global earnings. As we highlight in our Market Maps Monthly Performance Report for January, the consensus EPS growth forecast for the FTSE All-World Index is currently 16% for 2018. That's up from forecas… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Equities Make A Bid At A Recovery, And VIX Accommodates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-07 11:06:24:000

Market Intro Equities ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM , ACWI ) are determined to do their darndest to see if a recovery can be cobbled together in short order after the recent meltdown. Maybe it can be. IB: S&P 500 Futures Weve seen plenty of seesaw action, of course, bu… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Equities Make A Bid At A Recovery, And VIX Accommodates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-07 11:06:24:000

Market Intro Equities ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM , ACWI ) are determined to do their darndest to see if a recovery can be cobbled together in short order after the recent meltdown. Maybe it can be. IB: S&P 500 Futures Weve seen plenty of seesaw action, of course, bu… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Equities Make A Bid At A Recovery, And VIX Accommodates

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-07 11:06:24:000

Market Intro Equities ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM , ACWI ) are determined to do their darndest to see if a recovery can be cobbled together in short order after the recent meltdown. Maybe it can be. IB: S&P 500 Futures Weve seen plenty of seesaw action, of course, bu… read more...

Bloodbath In The Global Stock Markets - What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-07 07:02:15:000

By Christian Schoubye, Communications Officer The sell-off in the global stock market is escalating. Listen here to our founder and CEO Lars Christensen who gives his take on the situation. Lars also looks ahead and looks at drivers for the markets going forward. Read Lars' comments fr… read more...

Bloodbath In The Global Stock Markets - What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-07 07:02:15:000

By Christian Schoubye, Communications Officer The sell-off in the global stock market is escalating. Listen here to our founder and CEO Lars Christensen who gives his take on the situation. Lars also looks ahead and looks at drivers for the markets going forward. Read Lars' comments fr… read more...

Bloodbath In The Global Stock Markets - What's Next?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-07 07:02:15:000

By Christian Schoubye, Communications Officer The sell-off in the global stock market is escalating. Listen here to our founder and CEO Lars Christensen who gives his take on the situation. Lars also looks ahead and looks at drivers for the markets going forward. Read Lars' comments fr… read more...

Technical Review And Outlook - February 1, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-07 03:45:32:000

Read more … read more...

Technical Review And Outlook - February 1, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-07 03:45:32:000

Read more … read more...

Technical Review And Outlook - February 1, 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-07 03:45:32:000

Read more … read more...

'When The Foundations Are Being Destroyed, What Can The Righteous Do?'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 12:03:55:000

Im going to jump right to the context of this passage: The last thing folks need right now is to be mocked and jeered at by the I told you so crowd. Real people, some of whom had plenty of barbs and taunts to dole out, have gotten a big reality check. And when I say t… read more...

'When The Foundations Are Being Destroyed, What Can The Righteous Do?'

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 12:03:55:000

Im going to jump right to the context of this passage: The last thing folks need right now is to be mocked and jeered at by the I told you so crowd. Real people, some of whom had plenty of barbs and taunts to dole out, have gotten a big reality check. And when I say t… read more...

Global Market Sentiment Turmoil Warrant Portfolio Diversification

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 07:44:33:000

"Strong global market sentiment for risky assets, a weakened dollar and geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East underline the need for a long-term multi-asset portfolio," asserts a leading global analyst at one of the world's largest international advisory organisations. deVere Group's Inter… read more...

Global Market Sentiment Turmoil Warrant Portfolio Diversification

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 07:44:33:000

"Strong global market sentiment for risky assets, a weakened dollar and geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East underline the need for a long-term multi-asset portfolio," asserts a leading global analyst at one of the world's largest international advisory organisations. deVere Group's Inter… read more...

Adestella Investment Management Q4 2017 Investor Letter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 07:33:44:000

Read more … read more...

Adestella Investment Management Q4 2017 Investor Letter

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 07:33:44:000

Read more … read more...

Trump Trade Wars On The Horizon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 06:23:13:000

Two risks bubbled to the surface after Round 6 of NAFTA negotiations - the possibility of trade wars and a potential NAFTA exit. Brittany Baumann, Macro Strategist, TD Securities , talks to Sara D'Elia on how trade appears to be the next thing on President Trump's agenda and what that co… read more...

Trump Trade Wars On The Horizon

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 06:23:13:000

Two risks bubbled to the surface after Round 6 of NAFTA negotiations - the possibility of trade wars and a potential NAFTA exit. Brittany Baumann, Macro Strategist, TD Securities , talks to Sara D'Elia on how trade appears to be the next thing on President Trump's agenda and what that co… read more...

Alpine Capital Research Q4 2017 Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 01:31:02:000

Margin of Safety 2017 proved to be a glorious year for the global economy and financial markets. Preliminary estimates for 2017 global real GDP growth are well over 3%, and the world's top 20 economies all grew for the first time in over 10 years. Global stocks returned 24.6% (MSCI ACWI), an… read more...

Alpine Capital Research Q4 2017 Commentary

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-06 01:31:02:000

Margin of Safety 2017 proved to be a glorious year for the global economy and financial markets. Preliminary estimates for 2017 global real GDP growth are well over 3%, and the world's top 20 economies all grew for the first time in over 10 years. Global stocks returned 24.6% (MSCI ACWI), an… read more...

The Unsung Hero Of The Current Global Expansion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-05 23:36:30:000

There's an unsung hero in the global economy's recent performance. Jean explains. Our BlackRock Growth GPS shows the synchronized global expansion carrying on into 2018, with developed market ((DM)) growth serving as the main engine powering the cycle further. Within developed market… read more...

The Unsung Hero Of The Current Global Expansion

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-05 23:36:30:000

There's an unsung hero in the global economy's recent performance. Jean explains. Our BlackRock Growth GPS shows the synchronized global expansion carrying on into 2018, with developed market ((DM)) growth serving as the main engine powering the cycle further. Within developed market… read more...

Opportunity Knocks For Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 12:46:00:000

It is amazing how fast sentiment shifts. The pundits went from wildly bullish to pessimistic in a matter of days looking through the rear view mirror at a few stats that are most likely misleading and/or off the mark. Seasonal adjustments as well as tax reform are going to play havoc with Ja… read more...

Opportunity Knocks For Investors

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 12:46:00:000

It is amazing how fast sentiment shifts. The pundits went from wildly bullish to pessimistic in a matter of days looking through the rear view mirror at a few stats that are most likely misleading and/or off the mark. Seasonal adjustments as well as tax reform are going to play havoc with Ja… read more...

January Global Manufacturing PMI Signals Solid Start To 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 10:02:53:000

Global manufacturing started 2018 on an upbeat note, with businesses registering one of the strongest expansions for seven years. The headline JPMorgan Manufacturing PMI, compiled by IHS Markit, registered 54.4 in January, down from 54.5 in December but nevertheless recording the second-high… read more...

Perspective On Last Week's Carnage From Volatility Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-04 08:15:15:000

Market Intro Equities ( SPY , DIA , QQQ , IWM ) finally behaved like equities last week: Sector SPDRs Because humans have a need for a story, we often read (and accept) narratives as to what root cause was responsible for an event. This is prominent in the financial industry, whic… read more...

How Global And Synchronized Is A Boom Without China?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 01:01:01:000

According to Chinas official PMIs, those looking for a boom to begin worldwide in 2018 after it failed to materialize in 2017 are still to be disappointed. If there is going to be globally synchronized growth, it will have to happen without Chinas participation in it. Of course… read more...

How Global And Synchronized Is A Boom Without China?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 01:01:01:000

According to Chinas official PMIs, those looking for a boom to begin worldwide in 2018 after it failed to materialize in 2017 are still to be disappointed. If there is going to be globally synchronized growth, it will have to happen without Chinas participation in it. Of course… read more...

How Global And Synchronized Is A Boom Without China?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 01:01:01:000

According to Chinas official PMIs, those looking for a boom to begin worldwide in 2018 after it failed to materialize in 2017 are still to be disappointed. If there is going to be globally synchronized growth, it will have to happen without Chinas participation in it. Of course… read more...

International Equity: 3 Key Insights For 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 00:04:52:000

By William Davies, Global Head of Equities Investing overseas may cause some hesitation because of past economic struggles. But there's some good potential abroad. Here's why. After talking with many investors and advisors in 2017, we got a lot of questions around international equity…. read more...

International Equity: 3 Key Insights For 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 00:04:52:000

By William Davies, Global Head of Equities Investing overseas may cause some hesitation because of past economic struggles. But there's some good potential abroad. Here's why. After talking with many investors and advisors in 2017, we got a lot of questions around international equity…. read more...

International Equity: 3 Key Insights For 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-02 00:04:52:000

By William Davies, Global Head of Equities Investing overseas may cause some hesitation because of past economic struggles. But there's some good potential abroad. Here's why. After talking with many investors and advisors in 2017, we got a lot of questions around international equity…. read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 06:42:00:000

Danielle was a guest on The Financial Survival Network with Kerry Lutz, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 06:42:00:000

Danielle was a guest on The Financial Survival Network with Kerry Lutz, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Ivy Portfolio February Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 05:48:12:000

The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks the 10-month moving average signals for two portfolios listed in Mebane Faber's book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets . Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long… read more...

Ivy Portfolio February Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 05:48:12:000

The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks the 10-month moving average signals for two portfolios listed in Mebane Faber's book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets . Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long… read more...

Perritt Capital Management Manager Commentary, Q4 2017

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 04:40:42:000

YEAR IN REVIEW Worry? There is an old saying on Wall Street that the markets climb a "Wall of Worry." The past quarter and year certainly had several concerns, but the markets continued higher and finished the year at all time highs. Some of these recent concerns were several Hurricanes. H… read more...

Perritt Capital Management Manager Commentary, Q4 2017

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-02-01 04:40:42:000

YEAR IN REVIEW Worry? There is an old saying on Wall Street that the markets climb a "Wall of Worry." The past quarter and year certainly had several concerns, but the markets continued higher and finished the year at all time highs. Some of these recent concerns were several Hurricanes. H… read more...

Globally Synchronized What?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 07:08:25:000

In one of those rare turns, the term "globally synchronized growth" actually means what the words do. It is economic growth that for the first time in ten years has all the major economies of the world participating in it. It's the kind of big idea that seems like a big thing we all should pay… read more...

Globally Synchronized What?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 07:08:25:000

In one of those rare turns, the term "globally synchronized growth" actually means what the words do. It is economic growth that for the first time in ten years has all the major economies of the world participating in it. It's the kind of big idea that seems like a big thing we all should pay… read more...

Globally Synchronized What?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 07:08:25:000

In one of those rare turns, the term "globally synchronized growth" actually means what the words do. It is economic growth that for the first time in ten years has all the major economies of the world participating in it. It's the kind of big idea that seems like a big thing we all should pay… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 06:49:51:000

By Jill Mislinski Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through the first week of 2018. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 10.19%, followed by our own S&P 500 with a gain of 7.45%. In third is Bombay's BSE SENSEX with 6.62%. Coming … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 06:49:51:000

By Jill Mislinski Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through the first week of 2018. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 10.19%, followed by our own S&P 500 with a gain of 7.45%. In third is Bombay's BSE SENSEX with 6.62%. Coming … read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 06:49:51:000

By Jill Mislinski Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through the first week of 2018. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 10.19%, followed by our own S&P 500 with a gain of 7.45%. In third is Bombay's BSE SENSEX with 6.62%. Coming … read more...

Investment Quarterly Winter 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 04:26:47:000

By Joseph V. Amato Change Is Looming - and Not Just for Markets 2017 was a banner year for equities. Accelerating global growth, complemented by low inflation, still-loose monetary conditions and optimism about pro-business economic policies, helped spur major indices to double-digit… read more...

Investment Quarterly Winter 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 04:26:47:000

By Joseph V. Amato Change Is Looming - and Not Just for Markets 2017 was a banner year for equities. Accelerating global growth, complemented by low inflation, still-loose monetary conditions and optimism about pro-business economic policies, helped spur major indices to double-digit… read more...

Investment Quarterly Winter 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-30 04:26:47:000

By Joseph V. Amato Change Is Looming - and Not Just for Markets 2017 was a banner year for equities. Accelerating global growth, complemented by low inflation, still-loose monetary conditions and optimism about pro-business economic policies, helped spur major indices to double-digit… read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 16:10:05:000

Danielle was a guest on This Week in Money with Jim Goddard, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 16:10:05:000

Danielle was a guest on This Week in Money with Jim Goddard, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Danielle On This Week In Money

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 16:10:05:000

Danielle was a guest on This Week in Money with Jim Goddard, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here . Disclosure: Read more … read more...

Just What The Doctor Ordered

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 04:47:26:000

How things have improved. Two years ago, there was quite a scary situation in the world economy. Brexit, eurozone elections, explosive situations. China devaluation risk, capital outflows. Emerging market dollar denominated debt. Euro implosion would have triggered the latter two thr… read more...

Just What The Doctor Ordered

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 04:47:26:000

How things have improved. Two years ago, there was quite a scary situation in the world economy. Brexit, eurozone elections, explosive situations. China devaluation risk, capital outflows. Emerging market dollar denominated debt. Euro implosion would have triggered the latter two thr… read more...

Just What The Doctor Ordered

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-29 04:47:26:000

How things have improved. Two years ago, there was quite a scary situation in the world economy. Brexit, eurozone elections, explosive situations. China devaluation risk, capital outflows. Emerging market dollar denominated debt. Euro implosion would have triggered the latter two thr… read more...

The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 08:25:07:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities, and Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Class There are two kinds of people: Those who are prepared for elevated risks, and those who aren't. We were in London last week, expanding on … read more...

The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 08:25:07:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities, and Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Class There are two kinds of people: Those who are prepared for elevated risks, and those who aren't. We were in London last week, expanding on … read more...

The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 08:25:07:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities, and Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Class There are two kinds of people: Those who are prepared for elevated risks, and those who aren't. We were in London last week, expanding on … read more...

The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 08:25:07:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities, and Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Class There are two kinds of people: Those who are prepared for elevated risks, and those who aren't. We were in London last week, expanding on … read more...

The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 08:25:07:000

By Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities, and Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Class There are two kinds of people: Those who are prepared for elevated risks, and those who aren't. We were in London last week, expanding on … read more...

Let It Ride

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 06:48:50:000

A successful hedge fund manager must know when to be fully invested, when to start taking chips off the table, and finally when to fold his/her hand going to cash and/or even net short. We are skeptics always looking for that inflection point that leads to a major shift in our asset allocation… read more...

Let It Ride

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 06:48:50:000

A successful hedge fund manager must know when to be fully invested, when to start taking chips off the table, and finally when to fold his/her hand going to cash and/or even net short. We are skeptics always looking for that inflection point that leads to a major shift in our asset allocation… read more...

Let It Ride

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 06:48:50:000

A successful hedge fund manager must know when to be fully invested, when to start taking chips off the table, and finally when to fold his/her hand going to cash and/or even net short. We are skeptics always looking for that inflection point that leads to a major shift in our asset allocation… read more...

Let It Ride

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 06:48:50:000

A successful hedge fund manager must know when to be fully invested, when to start taking chips off the table, and finally when to fold his/her hand going to cash and/or even net short. We are skeptics always looking for that inflection point that leads to a major shift in our asset allocation… read more...

Let It Ride

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 06:48:50:000

A successful hedge fund manager must know when to be fully invested, when to start taking chips off the table, and finally when to fold his/her hand going to cash and/or even net short. We are skeptics always looking for that inflection point that leads to a major shift in our asset allocation… read more...

Domestic Political Front Has Yet To Negatively Influence Equity Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 04:57:54:000

Originally published January 24, 2018 Before we get to the markets, we have to talk about something that concerns us. This week the government failed to gather enough senate votes to pass a budget resolution. We have been down this path before and it is just further testament to th… read more...

Domestic Political Front Has Yet To Negatively Influence Equity Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 04:57:54:000

Originally published January 24, 2018 Before we get to the markets, we have to talk about something that concerns us. This week the government failed to gather enough senate votes to pass a budget resolution. We have been down this path before and it is just further testament to th… read more...

Domestic Political Front Has Yet To Negatively Influence Equity Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 04:57:54:000

Originally published January 24, 2018 Before we get to the markets, we have to talk about something that concerns us. This week the government failed to gather enough senate votes to pass a budget resolution. We have been down this path before and it is just further testament to th… read more...

Domestic Political Front Has Yet To Negatively Influence Equity Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 04:57:54:000

Originally published January 24, 2018 Before we get to the markets, we have to talk about something that concerns us. This week the government failed to gather enough senate votes to pass a budget resolution. We have been down this path before and it is just further testament to th… read more...

Domestic Political Front Has Yet To Negatively Influence Equity Markets

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-28 04:57:54:000

Originally published January 24, 2018 Before we get to the markets, we have to talk about something that concerns us. This week the government failed to gather enough senate votes to pass a budget resolution. We have been down this path before and it is just further testament to th… read more...

January 2018 Data Update 5: Country Risk Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-25 08:42:01:000

In my last post , I looked at the currency confusions that globalization has brought into financial analysis, and how to clean up for them. In this post, I discuss the other aspect of globalization that is forcing analysts to change long accepted practices in estimating equity risk premiums f… read more...

January 2018 Data Update 5: Country Risk Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-25 08:42:01:000

In my last post , I looked at the currency confusions that globalization has brought into financial analysis, and how to clean up for them. In this post, I discuss the other aspect of globalization that is forcing analysts to change long accepted practices in estimating equity risk premiums f… read more...

January 2018 Data Update 5: Country Risk Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-25 08:42:01:000

In my last post , I looked at the currency confusions that globalization has brought into financial analysis, and how to clean up for them. In this post, I discuss the other aspect of globalization that is forcing analysts to change long accepted practices in estimating equity risk premiums f… read more...

Who Made Money Last Year - Analyzing 2017

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-25 02:44:39:000

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Hello and welcome back to the Atlas Investor Podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number nine. Tiho, we've taken a little bit of break. We're enjoying the new year, but we're ready to get back at it today. How are you doing, m… read more...

Who Made Money Last Year - Analyzing 2017

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-25 02:44:39:000

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Hello and welcome back to the Atlas Investor Podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number nine. Tiho, we've taken a little bit of break. We're enjoying the new year, but we're ready to get back at it today. How are you doing, m… read more...

Who Made Money Last Year - Analyzing 2017

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-25 02:44:39:000

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Hello and welcome back to the Atlas Investor Podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number nine. Tiho, we've taken a little bit of break. We're enjoying the new year, but we're ready to get back at it today. How are you doing, m… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Can China Credibly Sell U.S. Treasuries As A Negotiating Tactic In Trade?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-24 09:18:51:000

Market Intro The US dollar index ( UUP ) has recently pulled below the 90 level which had acted as support over the last several months. Investing.com, 8:03AM EST The one-day activity in the dollar is of course interesting. We thought it would be good to take a peek at which currenci… read more...

VIDEO: Active Asset Allocation In 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-24 08:58:03:000

In this video we talk through a set of slides presenting a top-down perspective on Active Asset Allocation in 2018. In the first part of the presentation the topic is "Macro Strategy" and the key areas of focus are the outlook for global growth and inflation, the impact on monetary policy, and… read more...

World Markets Update

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-24 06:02:47:000

By Jill Mislinski All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through the first week of 2018. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 10.07%, followed by Shanghai's SSE with a gain of 7.24%. In third place is Bombay's BSE Sensex with 6.88%. Coming in last … read more...

3 Things That Scare Me For 2018

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-24 02:35:34:000

I'm known to be an optimist, a guy that will always tell you that today is the best day to invest your money since you missed yesterday! While I'm confident that I will have another great year in the stock market, I'm also not a lunatic with pink glasses either. Unfortunately, there ar… read more...

The Market Sentimentalist - Are We There Yet?

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-23 06:09:40:000

By Amareos The calendar year may have changed recently, but the underlying trend in global equity markets has not. The bulls are still in charge and the major indices have all continued to track higher (talk about year-highs when it is only a handful of days old is simply ridiculous althou… read more...

Global Equity Valuation Rankings

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-21 23:38:28:000

Following on from the popular " Top 10 PE10 Part 2 " post, there were a few questions from readers about where various other countries sit in the rankings. So here is a follow-up post, the PE10 part 3! As requested, first up is table showing the rankings for 45 countries on the PE10 valuatio… read more...

Market Volatility Bulletin: Shaky Into The Open

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-19 09:31:16:000

Market Intro CNBC: 8:20AM EST Precious metals ( GLD , SLV ) are posting a good pre-market session, perhaps in part due to dollar travails. The US Dollar ( UUP ) is getting perilously close to breaking through the 90-level that represents support. The pending government shutdown due … read more...

Danielle On The Financial Survival Network

via: SeekingAlpha at 2018-01-18 03:29:03:000

Danielle was a guest on The Financial Survival Network with Kerry Lutz, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment by clicking the play button below. Disclosure: No Read more … read more...

Ex-Date Payment Date Record Date Declared Date Amount Flag Dividend Type Qualified Indicated
2017-12-19 2017-12-26 2017-12-20 2017-12-18 0.669363 Dividend income
2017-06-20 2017-06-26 2017-06-22 2017-06-19 0.732112 Dividend income
2016-12-21 2016-12-28 2016-12-23 2016-12-20 0.553166 Dividend income
2016-06-22 2016-06-28 2016-06-24 2016-06-21 0.743701 Dividend income
2015-12-29 2016-01-05 2015-12-31 2015-12-28 0.034695 EX Dividend income
2015-12-21 2015-12-28 2015-12-23 2015-12-18 0.677124 Dividend income
2015-06-25 2015-07-01 2015-06-29 2015-06-24 0.717996 Dividend income
2014-12-17 2014-12-24 2014-12-19 2014-12-16 0.488305 UR Dividend income
2014-06-25 2014-07-02 2014-06-27 2014-06-24 0.836194 UR Dividend income
2014-01-03 2014-01-03 2013-12-31 UR Dividend income
2013-12-27 2014-01-03 2013-12-31 UR Dividend income
2013-12-18 2013-12-30 2013-12-20 2013-12-17 0.458385 Dividend income
2013-06-27 2013-07-05 2013-07-01 2013-06-26 0.632566 Dividend income
Ex-Date Declared Date Record Date Payment Date Ratio To Factor For Factor
Data provided for free by IEX